PCA12 - Converting Bright Ideas Into Business Opportunities by Dr. John Vanston - TFI 2-15-14

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The Alligator Wrangler

Technology

Converting Bright
Ideas into Business
Opportunities
John H. Vanston, Ph.D.
Chairman

Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014
Author, MINITRENDS: How Innovators
& Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From
Business & Technology Trends
(512) 258-8898

www.minitrends.com

www.tfi.com

Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.

February 2014

jvanston@tfi.com

I. Attractiveness
to Business
Community

II. Attractiveness
to You

Business Community
 Excites

 Opens

Enthusiasm

up opportunities

 Special

Differentiating Factors

Issues
 What

special advantages for user?

 What

problem solved?

 What

new capabilities?

 How

needs now being satisfied?

 How

much improvement?

 How

can improvement's be
demonstrated?

Size and Nature of Potential
Market
 Define

markets MiniTrend can serve

 Consider

future markets

 Consider

ancillary markets

 Consider

social implications

Determine where in MiniTrend is
in the Emergence Process
Fisher-Pry Substitution Model
90%

Fisher-Pry Model

80%

y(t) =

1

1 + e-b(t-a)

70%
60%
50%

Percentage
New

40%
30%

Basic FP Charts 2004

Percentage of Installed Base

100%

20%
10%
0%
0

5

10

15
Time

20

25

30

Source: Technology Futures, Inc.

9

Impact of Exogenous Factors
 Advantageous

 Disadvantageous

Early Indicators
•

Laboratory discoveries portend
new technologies

•

Special group formations portend
new social attitudes

•

Declared political positions portend
new laws and regulations

Personal Attractiveness
•

Clarify personal interests

•

Consider your personal
situation

Convince Customers
of the Value of Special
Features to Them

14

Consider How the
Minitrend Product Will
Be Marketed

15

Define and Analyze
Relevant Drivers and
Constraints

16

Photo: http://www.landmama.com/custom/index.cfm?id=134783

Apply the “Sanity Test”
to Each Stage of the
Exploitation Process

21

Remember There Are Other
Smart People in the World

22

MINITRENDS Book


7 Ways to Search



8 Places to Search



9 Sample
MiniTrends



4 Ways to Select
MiniTrends



4 Ways to Develop
MiniTrends Plan



13 Ways to Put
Plan into Action

23

MiniTrends 2014: Fall, Austin, TX

24

Photo Source: TFI

MiniTrends Resources & Services
http://minitrends.com/minitrends/resources/ (see handout)
MiniTrends Resources:
• MINITRENDS:

How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover
& Profit From Business & Technology Trends
by Dr. John Vanston and Carrie Vanston
2014: 3rd Annual Conference & Master Workshop
Fall 2014, Austin, TX

• MiniTrends

• MiniTrends

Meetups: TBA in early 2014.

• MiniTrends

Resource Page
http://minitrends.com/minitrends/resources/

MiniTrends Services:
• MiniTrends

Presentations

• MiniTrends

Workshops

• MiniTrends

Seminars

• MiniTrends

Annual Conference Sponsor

• MiniTrends
• Research

Annual Conference Partner

and Alerts

25

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PCA12 - Converting Bright Ideas Into Business Opportunities by Dr. John Vanston - TFI 2-15-14

1. Converting Bright Ideas into Business Opportunities John H. Vanston, Ph.D. Chairman Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014 Author, MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends (512) 258-8898 www.minitrends.com www.tfi.com Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc. February 2014 jvanston@tfi.com

2. 2014

3. I. Attractiveness to Business Community II. Attractiveness to You

4. Business Community  Excites  Opens Enthusiasm up opportunities  Special Differentiating Factors

5. Identify Emerging Market Needs 5

6. Issues  What special advantages for user?  What problem solved?  What new capabilities?  How needs now being satisfied?  How much improvement?  How can improvement's be demonstrated?

7. Size and Nature of Potential Market  Define markets MiniTrend can serve  Consider future markets  Consider ancillary markets  Consider social implications

8. Where in Development Process?

9. Determine where in MiniTrend is in the Emergence Process Fisher-Pry Substitution Model 90% Fisher-Pry Model 80% y(t) = 1 1 + e-b(t-a) 70% 60% 50% Percentage New 40% 30% Basic FP Charts 2004 Percentage of Installed Base 100% 20% 10% 0% 0 5 10 15 Time 20 25 30 Source: Technology Futures, Inc. 9

10. Impact of Exogenous Factors  Advantageous  Disadvantageous

11. Early Indicators • Laboratory discoveries portend new technologies • Special group formations portend new social attitudes • Declared political positions portend new laws and regulations

12. Personal Attractiveness • Clarify personal interests • Consider your personal situation

13. Determine Special Features 13

14. Convince Customers of the Value of Special Features to Them 14

15. Consider How the Minitrend Product Will Be Marketed 15

16. Define and Analyze Relevant Drivers and Constraints 16 Photo: http://www.landmama.com/custom/index.cfm?id=134783

17. Analyze Analogous Situations 17

18. Engage Allies and Supporters 18

19. Be Flexible 19

20. Stay Healthy 20

21. Apply the “Sanity Test” to Each Stage of the Exploitation Process 21

22. Remember There Are Other Smart People in the World 22

23. MINITRENDS Book  7 Ways to Search  8 Places to Search  9 Sample MiniTrends  4 Ways to Select MiniTrends  4 Ways to Develop MiniTrends Plan  13 Ways to Put Plan into Action 23

24. MiniTrends 2014: Fall, Austin, TX 24 Photo Source: TFI

25. MiniTrends Resources & Services http://minitrends.com/minitrends/resources/ (see handout) MiniTrends Resources: • MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends by Dr. John Vanston and Carrie Vanston 2014: 3rd Annual Conference & Master Workshop Fall 2014, Austin, TX • MiniTrends • MiniTrends Meetups: TBA in early 2014. • MiniTrends Resource Page http://minitrends.com/minitrends/resources/ MiniTrends Services: • MiniTrends Presentations • MiniTrends Workshops • MiniTrends Seminars • MiniTrends Annual Conference Sponsor • MiniTrends • Research Annual Conference Partner and Alerts 25

26. 2014

27. Converting Bright Ideas into Business Opportunities John H. Vanston, Ph.D. Chairman Conference Chair, MiniTrends 2014 Author, MINITRENDS: How Innovators & Entrepreneurs Discover & Profit From Business & Technology Trends (512) 258-8898 www.minitrends.com www.tfi.com Copyright © 2014, John Vanston/Carrie Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc. February 2014 jvanston@tfi.com

PCA12 - Converting Bright Ideas Into Business Opportunities by Dr. John Vanston - TFI 2-15-14

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PCA12 - Converting Bright Ideas Into Business Opportunities by Dr. John Vanston - TFI 2-15-14