The Brussels Development Briefing no. 48 on “Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa” took place on 20th March 2017 from 14:00 to 18:00, at the ACP Secretariat (Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels, Room C). This Briefing was co-organised by CTA, BMZ/GIZ, the ACP Secretariat, European Commission (DG DEVCO) and Concord

1. Fostering employment through
territorial development
Brussels Development Briefing no. 48
“Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa”
Denis Pesche, CIRAD
2Oth March, 2017
20th March, 2017

2. 20th March, 2017

3. 20st March, 2017

4. A demographic challenge…
Population increase among world regions and countries: past and future
In the next 40 years: + 1.35 B people in SSA
and + 200 M in North Africa
20th March, 2017

5. A remaining importance of rural population
• With the exception of
North Africa, South
Africa and several
countries in the Gulf of
Guinea: 60% of the
population is rural
• The majority of SSA
population will remain
rural till the mid- 2040s
• Nearly 1 B rural
residents in 2050 (+350
M)
20th March, 2017

6. 20th March, 2017

7. A common employment challenge
• Yearly youth cohort =
23 M today, 33 M in
2030
• In the next 15 years,
440 M youth will
enter the “labor
market”
• Nigeria (70 M)
• Ethiopia (40 M)
• Egypt (28 M)
• Most of them will live
in rural areas
20th March, 2017

8. Youth face a very limited economic diversification…
• SSA’s urbanization occurred
without industrialization
• Consequences are:
– The remaining role of
agriculture, extractive
industries and informal
services in GDP
– The importance of informal
employment (self-
employment and farming)
20st March, 2017

9. An important factor: the densification of links between
towns and the countryside

10. The African equation
• African countries face the challenges of an
incipient economic and an incomplete
demographic transition
• These two historical challenges are faced in
today’s world characterized by globalization and
climate change
• What can be the adequate and effective answers
knowing that there will not be duplication of past
“transformation pathways”
• How to deal with poorly diversified economic
structures and a growing labor force?
20th March, 2017

11. THE AFRICAN EQUATION AT LOCAL
LEVEL : MALI AND SENEGAL
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12. 20th March, 2017
• 62 504 km2
• 2,8 millions people
• total fertility rate 6,6 (2010)
• 3 urban towns (Ségou, Niono, San)
• A large irrigated system: Office du
Niger
Ségou, Mali

13. Ségou, Mali
2,763 millions
4,583 millions
The demographic challenge
TFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035
1,502 millions
1993 2015 2035
20th March, 2017

14. 20th March, 2017
Ségou, Mali
1987
2009

15. Ségou, Mali
The employment challenge
38 000 new workers in 2015  64 000 in 2035
More than 1 million in 20 years
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16. 20th March, 2017
Ségou, Mali
primaire
industrie
commerce
service
1987 2009
Failure of industrialization, development of services
and return to agriculture (2011; conflict)

17. Job creation projections in Ségou
• 1,000,000 jobs to be created between now and 2035
• In 2012, 84% of jobs were in the primary sector
(agriculture, livestock, forestry)
• What will the sources of employment be in 2035?
– In 2012, there were close to 85,000 non-agricultural jobs
– In 2035 :
• Agricultural production
• Agri-activities (downstream, upstream)
• Rural salaried workforce
• Others?…
20th March, 2017

18. Senegal river delta
• Agribusiness is dynamic
and has recently
accelerated
• What is the potential
for job creation
according to the
agricultural models?
20th March, 2017

19. WAF
Senhuile
20th March, 2017

20. Senhuile
• Senegalese and Italian
capital has been invested in
2010 and then in 2012
• 26,000 and then 10,000 ha
have been allocated, 1150
cultivated in 2016 (maize,
rice, soya)
• High degree of
mechanisation
• Salaried workforce of 180
(25 DK, 70 security…)
• Uncertain future (areas,
crops, jobs…)
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21. 20th March, 2017

22. WAF
• Created in 2011 – UK/RSA capital
• Modest size and return (200 ha + 200 ha/RSE)
• Market gardening for export (onions, radishes)
• Model firmly based on local employment
• A success story, PDIDAS
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23. WAF
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24. 20th March, 2017
CSS SCL SOCAS GDS CASL WAF STS Temey Agro Ferlo Gomme
Salariés temporaires 4,700 2,000 1,000 724 154 165 120 61 9
Salariés permanents 2,000 480 399 344 130 78 11 2 5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Salariés temporaires Salariés permanents

25. 20th March, 2017
JérémyBourgoin,2017,CIRAD/ISRA
Senhuile : mechanised system, 0.13 jobs/ha (including 45% security…)
Family farms average: 0.78 permanent jobs and 2.53 temporary jobs per ha.
13,000 farms (Dagana department).

26. Toward a new Rural (Territorial)
Development paradigm…
1. Governance
2. Multisectorial approaches
3. Infrastructures
4. Urban/rural linkages
5. Inclusive policies
6. Gender
7. Demographic driver
8. Sustainability
(based on OCDE, 2016)
20th March, 2017

27. Thank you for your attention
20th March, 2017