Benedict Evans, Enders Analysis, keynote presentation at Mobile Media Strategies 2012

1. Platform
Wars
Apple,
Android,
Samsung
and
Facebook
Benedict
Evans
/
benedict.evans@endersanalysis.com
/
+44
7880
786
727
/
@benedictevans
September
2012

2. Growth,
for
some
Quarterly
smartphone
unit
sales
(m)
Handset
revenue
($bn)
90
20
80
18
70
16
14
60
12
50
10
40
8
30
6
20
4
10
2
0
0
Feb-­‐2008
Mar-­‐2009
May-­‐2010
Jun-­‐2011
Jul-­‐2012
iPhone
Android
Symbian
RIM
Windows
Phone
[Source:
Companies,
Enders
Analysis]
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
[Source:
Companies,
Enders
Analysis]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
2

3. Polarisation
Q2
2012
global
mobile
handset
business
Q2
2012
global
smartphone
business
160
60
All
other
Android
140
Other
non-­‐
smart
50
Samsung
120
Android
iPhone
40
Units
shipped
(m)
Units
shipped
(m)
100
Nokia
Samsung
80
30
60
iPhone
20
Other
Nokia
smart
40
Android
RIM
10
Sony
20
Moto
HTC
LG
0
0
RIM
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
ASP
($)
ASP
($)
Bubble
size
=
revenue
[Source:
Companies,
Enders
Analysis]
Bubble
size
=
revenue
[Source:
Companies,
Enders
Analysis]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
3

4. Platform
scale:
810m
cumulative
iOS
&
Android
sales,
675m
users
Cumulative
activations
(m)
Active
installed
base,
Q2
2012
(m)
700
450
410
610
400
374
600
480
530
350
500
307
300
400
410
250
300
200
180
200
150
100
100
50
0
0
iOS
Android
Facebook
Amazon
mobile
apps
Phones
iPod
Touch
Tablets
Active
users
iOS
Android
[Source:
Apple,
Facebook,
Amazon,
Enders
Analysis]
[Source:
Apple,
Google,
Enders
Analysis]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
4

5. The
iOS
app
store:
5
apps
downloaded
and
$1
spent
per
live
device
per
month
iOS
app
store
growth
iOS
app
store
trends
per
live
device
35
25
7
30
30
6
20
25
5
13.9
15
20
4
15
3
10
10
2
2.8
7.9
5
5
1
0
0
0
Jul-­‐08
Dec-­‐08
Jun-­‐09
Dec-­‐09
Jun-­‐10
Dec-­‐10
Jun-­‐11
Dec-­‐11
Jun-­‐12
Dec-­‐12
Sep-­‐10
Dec-­‐10
Mar-­‐11
Jun-­‐11
Sep-­‐11
Dec-­‐11
Mar-­‐12
Jun-­‐12
Cumulative
Downloads
(bn)
Cumulative
Gross
App
revenue
($bn)
Downloads
per
live
device
$
Gross
App
Revenue
per
device
(RH
scale)
[Source:
Apple]
[Source:
Enders
Analysis]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
5

6. Facebook
Mobile:
bigger
than
iOS
or
Android,
but
latent
as
a
platform
Facebook
user
base
(m)
Mobile
as
%
total
Facebook
active
users,
8/2012
1,200
80%
70%
1,000
12%
8%
60%
800
10%
412
50%
12%
48%
420
13%
600
450
40%
136
40%
30%
56%
59%
400
28%
109
48%
19%
101
20%
42%
35%
200
407
316
10%
22%
249
13%
14%
15%
0
0%
Sep-­‐11
Dec-­‐11
Jun-­‐12
Using
apps
Using
mobile
web
Not
using
mobile
Smartphone
[Source:
Facebook,
Enders
Analysis]
Other
mobile
[Source:
Facebook]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
6

7. UK
device
penetration
Share
of
UK
adult
mobile
users
100%
5%
8%
90%
10%
10%
80%
13%
16%
70%
9%
60%
20%
50%
40%
30%
60%
48%
20%
10%
0%
Apr-­‐11
Apr-­‐12
Basic
Android
[Source:
Enders
Analysis/TNS-­‐RI
survey
April
2012]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
7

8. UK
smartphone
ownership
profiles
Smartphone
user
breakdown:
social
grade
Smartphone
user
breakdown:
age
100%
4%
100%
3%
13%
12%
15%
10%
12%
10%
23%
26%
32%
13%
18%
80%
17%
16%
80%
16%
23%
16%
60%
60%
34%
32%
37%
44%
45%
41%
24%
44%
40%
46%
40%
20%
42%
20%
42%
33%
31%
35%
28%
27%
17%
21%
0%
0%
AB
C1
C2
DE
16-­‐24
25-­‐34
35-­‐44
45-­‐54
55+
iPhone
Android
BlackBerry
Nokia
iPhone
Android
BlackBerry
Nokia
[Source:
Enders
Analysis/TNS-­‐RI
survey
April
2012]
[Source:
Enders
Analysis/TNS-­‐RI
survey
April
2012]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
8

9. UK
tablets
–
7-­‐10m
by
the
new
year
Tablet
ownership
and
interest
50%
40%
37%
30%
30%
15%
18%
20%
7%
10%
6%
15%
6%
0%
Apr-­‐11
Apr-­‐12
Already
own
Very
interested
Quite
interested
[Source:
Enders
Analysis/TNS-­‐RI
survey
April
2012]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
9

10. Apps
and
the
web
Main
method
of
viewing
online
content
on
device
100%
6%
7%
15%
31%
80%
27%
34%
27%
59%
60%
18%
23%
19%
16%
11%
40%
16%
0%
20%
45%
40%
43%
40%
25%
0%
Tablet
iPhone
Android
BlackBerry
Nokia
smartphone
Websites
Apps
Do
both
about
equal
Do
not
view
online
content
[Source:
Enders
Analysis/TNS-­‐RI
survey
2012]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
10

11. Tablets
–
still
iPad
only
US
tablet
unit
sales
(000s)
7,000
5,967
6,000
5,000
4,460
4,293
4,000
3,795
3,597
3,000
2,294
1,969
1,914
2,000
1,000
262
266
293
347
156
77
0
Jun-­‐10
Sep-­‐10
Dec-­‐10
Mar-­‐11
Jun-­‐11
Sep-­‐11
Dec-­‐11
Mar-­‐12
Apple
Samsung
[Source:
Apple,
Samsung]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
11

12. Tablets:
getting
much
cheaper
Apple
and
Amazon
tablet
positioning
($)
700
600
500
400
300
630
500
500
506
200
400
300
300
100
200
160
0
Fire
Fire
HD
Fire
HD
9"
iPad
Mini?
iPad
2
Fire
HD
9"
iPad
3
Wifi
iPad
ASP
iPad
3
LTE
Cellular
Amazon
Apple
[Source:
Enders
Analysis]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
12

13. UK
Magazines
B2C
magazines
consumer
and
advertiser
expenditure
(£m)
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Current
prices
Consumer
expenditure
Advertising
expenditure
[Source:
Enders
Analysis
based
on
ABC
and
WARC
data]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
13

14. Reading
on
the
iPad
Do
you
read
newspapers
and
magazines
on
your
tablet?
50%
45%
44%
40%
9%
Yes,
and
I
did
not
read
the
print
12%
versions
previously
30%
15%
Yes,
and
I
read
the
print
versions
12%
the
same
amount
or
more
than
before
20%
Yes,
and
I
read
the
print
versions
less
frequently
as
a
consequence
10%
21%
20%
0%
Apr-­‐11
Apr-­‐12
Base:
those
who
currently
own
a
tablet
[Source:
Enders
Analysis/TNS-­‐RI
survey
April
2012]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
14

15. Tablet
magazines:
a
mixed
picture
Hearst
USA
tablet
magazine
sales,
2012
Fire
15%
iPad
35%
Zinio
20%
Nook
30%
[Source:
Hearst]
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
15

16. Solipsism
Apple
should
remake
the
TV
ISPs
should
subsidise
newspapers
Tablets
will
save
magazines
industry
Google
steals
our
content
Facebook
destroys
local
Apple
will
destroy
Amazon
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
16

17. Distribution
Platform
Wars,
September
2012
17

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Platform
Wars,
September
2012
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