Platform	  Wars	  Apple,	  Android,	  Samsung	  and	  Facebook	  Benedict	  Evans	  /	  benedict.evans@endersanalysis.com	...
Growth,	  for	  some	    Quarterly	  smartphone	  unit	  sales	  (m)	                                                     ...
Polarisation	              Q2	  2012	  global	  mobile	  handset	  business	                                              ...
Platform	  scale:	  810m	  cumulative	  iOS	  &	  Android	  sales,	  675m	  users	   Cumulative	  activations	  (m)	      ...
The	  iOS	  app	  store:	  5	  apps	  downloaded	  and	  $1	  spent	  per	  live	  device	  per	  month	       iOS	  app	 ...
Facebook	  Mobile:	  bigger	  than	  iOS	  or	  Android,	  but	  latent	  as	  a	  platform	    Facebook	  user	  base	  (...
UK	  device	  penetration	     Share	  of	  UK	  adult	  mobile	  users	   100%	                                          ...
UK	  smartphone	  ownership	  profiles	   Smartphone	  user	  breakdown:	  social	  grade	                                 ...
UK	  tablets	  –	  7-­‐10m	  by	  the	  new	  year	     Tablet	  ownership	  and	  interest	     50%	     40%	            ...
Apps	  and	  the	  web	    Main	  method	  of	  viewing	  online	  content	  on	  device	     100%	                       ...
Tablets	  –	  still	  iPad	  only	      US	  tablet	  unit	  sales	  (000s)	    7,000	                                    ...
Tablets:	  getting	  much	  cheaper	     Apple	  and	  Amazon	  tablet	  positioning	  ($)	     700	     600	     500	    ...
UK	  Magazines	   B2C	  magazines	  consumer	  and	  advertiser	  expenditure	  (£m)	  3,000	  2,500	  2,000	  1,500	  1,0...
Reading	  on	  the	  iPad	    Do	  you	  read	  newspapers	  and	  magazines	  on	  your	  tablet?	        50%	           ...
Tablet	  magazines:	  a	  mixed	  picture	     Hearst	  USA	  tablet	  magazine	  sales,	  2012	                          ...
Solipsism	                                                                                              Apple	  should	  r...
Distribution	                     Platform	  Wars,	  September	  2012	     17	  
Disclaimer	  Important	  notice:	  By	  accepting	  this	  research	  note,	  the	  recipient	  agrees	  to	  be	  bound	 ...
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Benedict Evans

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Benedict Evans, Enders Analysis, keynote presentation at Mobile Media Strategies 2012

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Benedict Evans

  1. 1. Platform  Wars  Apple,  Android,  Samsung  and  Facebook  Benedict  Evans  /  benedict.evans@endersanalysis.com  /  +44  7880  786  727  /  @benedictevans   September  2012  
  2. 2. Growth,  for  some   Quarterly  smartphone  unit  sales  (m)   Handset  revenue  ($bn)   90   20   80   18   70   16   14   60   12   50   10   40   8   30   6   20   4   10   2   0   0   Feb-­‐2008   Mar-­‐2009   May-­‐2010   Jun-­‐2011   Jul-­‐2012   iPhone   Android   Symbian   RIM   Windows  Phone   [Source:  Companies,  Enders  Analysis]   Q2  2011   Q2  2012   [Source:  Companies,  Enders  Analysis]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   2  
  3. 3. Polarisation   Q2  2012  global  mobile  handset  business   Q2  2012  global  smartphone  business   160   60   All  other   Android   140   Other  non-­‐ smart   50   Samsung   120   Android   iPhone   40   Units  shipped  (m)  Units  shipped  (m)   100   Nokia   Samsung   80   30   60   iPhone   20   Other   Nokia  smart   40   Android   RIM   10   Sony   20   Moto   HTC   LG   0   0   RIM   0   100   200   300   400   500   600   700   0   100   200   300   400   500   600   700   ASP  ($)   ASP  ($)   Bubble  size  =  revenue  [Source:  Companies,  Enders  Analysis]   Bubble  size  =  revenue  [Source:  Companies,  Enders  Analysis]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   3  
  4. 4. Platform  scale:  810m  cumulative  iOS  &  Android  sales,  675m  users   Cumulative  activations  (m)   Active  installed  base,  Q2  2012  (m)   700   450   410   610   400   374   600   480   530   350   500   307   300   400   410   250   300   200   180   200   150   100   100   50   0   0   iOS   Android   Facebook   Amazon   mobile  apps   Phones   iPod  Touch   Tablets   Active  users   iOS   Android   [Source:  Apple,  Facebook,  Amazon,  Enders  Analysis]   [Source:  Apple,  Google,  Enders  Analysis]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   4  
  5. 5. The  iOS  app  store:  5  apps  downloaded  and  $1  spent  per  live  device  per  month   iOS  app  store  growth   iOS  app  store  trends  per  live  device  35   25   7  30   30   6   20  25   5    13.9     15  20   4  15   3   10  10   2   2.8   7.9   5   5   1   0   0   0   Jul-­‐08   Dec-­‐08   Jun-­‐09   Dec-­‐09   Jun-­‐10   Dec-­‐10   Jun-­‐11   Dec-­‐11   Jun-­‐12   Dec-­‐12   Sep-­‐10   Dec-­‐10   Mar-­‐11   Jun-­‐11   Sep-­‐11   Dec-­‐11   Mar-­‐12   Jun-­‐12   Cumulative  Downloads  (bn)   Cumulative  Gross  App  revenue  ($bn)   Downloads  per  live  device   $  Gross  App  Revenue  per  device  (RH  scale)   [Source:  Apple]   [Source:  Enders  Analysis]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   5  
  6. 6. Facebook  Mobile:  bigger  than  iOS  or  Android,  but  latent  as  a  platform   Facebook  user  base  (m)   Mobile  as  %    total  Facebook  active  users,  8/2012  1,200   80%   70%  1,000   12%   8%   60%   800   10%   412   50%   12%   48%   420   13%   600   450   40%   136   40%   30%   56%   59%   400   28%   109   48%   19%   101   20%   42%   35%   200   407   316   10%   22%   249   13%   14%   15%   0   0%   Sep-­‐11   Dec-­‐11   Jun-­‐12   Using    apps   Using  mobile  web   Not  using  mobile   Smartphone   [Source:  Facebook,  Enders  Analysis]   Other  mobile   [Source:  Facebook]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   6  
  7. 7. UK  device  penetration   Share  of  UK  adult  mobile  users   100%   5%   8%   90%   10%   10%   80%   13%   16%   70%   9%   60%   20%   50%   40%   30%   60%   48%   20%   10%   0%   Apr-­‐11   Apr-­‐12   Basic   Android   [Source:  Enders  Analysis/TNS-­‐RI  survey  April  2012]       Platform  Wars,  September  2012   7  
  8. 8. UK  smartphone  ownership  profiles   Smartphone  user  breakdown:  social  grade   Smartphone  user  breakdown:  age  100%   4%   100%   3%   13%   12%   15%   10%   12%   10%   23%   26%   32%   13%   18%   80%   17%   16%   80%   16%   23%   16%   60%   60%   34%   32%   37%   44%   45%   41%   24%   44%   40%   46%   40%   20%   42%   20%   42%   33%   31%   35%   28%   27%   17%   21%   0%   0%   AB   C1   C2   DE   16-­‐24   25-­‐34   35-­‐44   45-­‐54   55+   iPhone   Android   BlackBerry   Nokia   iPhone   Android   BlackBerry   Nokia   [Source:  Enders  Analysis/TNS-­‐RI  survey  April  2012]   [Source:  Enders  Analysis/TNS-­‐RI  survey  April  2012]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   8  
  9. 9. UK  tablets  –  7-­‐10m  by  the  new  year   Tablet  ownership  and  interest   50%   40%   37%   30%   30%   15%   18%   20%   7%   10%   6%   15%   6%   0%   Apr-­‐11   Apr-­‐12   Already  own   Very  interested   Quite  interested   [Source:  Enders  Analysis/TNS-­‐RI  survey  April  2012]     Platform  Wars,  September  2012   9  
  10. 10. Apps  and  the  web   Main  method  of  viewing  online  content  on  device   100%   6%   7%   15%   31%   80%   27%   34%   27%   59%   60%   18%   23%   19%   16%   11%   40%   16%   0%   20%   45%   40%   43%   40%   25%   0%   Tablet   iPhone   Android   BlackBerry   Nokia  smartphone   Websites   Apps   Do  both  about  equal   Do  not  view  online  content   [Source:  Enders  Analysis/TNS-­‐RI  survey  2012]     Platform  Wars,  September  2012   10  
  11. 11. Tablets  –  still  iPad  only   US  tablet  unit  sales  (000s)   7,000   5,967   6,000   5,000   4,460   4,293   4,000   3,795   3,597   3,000   2,294   1,969   1,914   2,000   1,000   262   266   293   347   156   77   0   Jun-­‐10   Sep-­‐10   Dec-­‐10   Mar-­‐11   Jun-­‐11   Sep-­‐11   Dec-­‐11   Mar-­‐12   Apple   Samsung   [Source:  Apple,  Samsung]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   11  
  12. 12. Tablets:  getting  much  cheaper   Apple  and  Amazon  tablet  positioning  ($)   700   600   500   400   300   630   500   500   506   200   400   300   300   100   200   160   0   Fire   Fire  HD   Fire  HD  9"   iPad  Mini?   iPad  2   Fire  HD  9"   iPad  3  Wifi   iPad  ASP   iPad  3   LTE   Cellular   Amazon   Apple   [Source:  Enders  Analysis]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   12  
  13. 13. UK  Magazines   B2C  magazines  consumer  and  advertiser  expenditure  (£m)  3,000  2,500  2,000  1,500  1,000   500   0   Current  prices   Consumer  expenditure   Advertising  expenditure   [Source:  Enders  Analysis  based  on  ABC  and  WARC  data]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   13  
  14. 14. Reading  on  the  iPad   Do  you  read  newspapers  and  magazines  on  your  tablet?   50%   45%   44%   40%   9%   Yes,  and  I  did  not  read  the  print   12%   versions  previously   30%   15%   Yes,  and  I  read  the  print    versions   12%   the  same  amount  or  more  than   before   20%   Yes,  and  I  read  the  print  versions   less  frequently  as  a  consequence   10%   21%   20%   0%   Apr-­‐11   Apr-­‐12   Base:  those  who  currently  own  a  tablet   [Source:  Enders  Analysis/TNS-­‐RI  survey  April  2012]     Platform  Wars,  September  2012   14  
  15. 15. Tablet  magazines:  a  mixed  picture   Hearst  USA  tablet  magazine  sales,  2012   Fire   15%   iPad   35%   Zinio   20%   Nook   30%   [Source:  Hearst]   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   15  
  16. 16. Solipsism   Apple  should  remake  the  TV   ISPs  should  subsidise  newspapers   Tablets  will  save  magazines   industry   Google  steals  our  content   Facebook  destroys  local   Apple  will  destroy  Amazon   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   16  
  17. 17. Distribution   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   17  
  18. 18. Disclaimer  Important  notice:  By  accepting  this  research  note,  the  recipient  agrees  to  be  bound  by  the  following  terms  of  use.  This  research  note  has  been  prepared  by  Enders  Analysis  Limited  and  published  solely  for  guidance  and  general  informational  purposes.  It  may  contain  the  personal  opinions  of  research  analysts’  based  on  research  undertaken.  This  note  has  no  regard  to  any  specific  recipient,  including  but  not  limited  to  any  specific  investment  objectives,  and  should  not  be  relied  on  by  any  recipient  for  investment  or  any  other  purposes.  Enders  Analysis  Limited  gives  no  undertaking  to  provide  the  recipient  with  access  to  any  additional  information  or  to  update  or  keep  current  any  information  or  opinions  contained  herein.  The  information  and  any  opinions  contained  herein  are  based  on  sources  believed  to  be  reliable  but  the  information  relied  on  has  not  been  independently  verified.  Enders  Analysis  Limited,  its  officers,  employees  and  agents  make  no  warranties  or  representations,  express  or  implied,  as  to  the  accuracy  or  completeness  of  information  and  opinions  contained  herein  and  exclude  all  liability  to  the  fullest  extent  permitted  by  law  for  any  direct  or  indirect  loss  or  damage  or  any  other  costs  or  expenses  of  any  kind  which  may  arise  directly  or  indirectly  out  of  the  use  of  this  note,  including  but  not  limited  to  anything  caused  by  any  viruses  or  any  failures  in  computer  transmission.  The  recipient  hereby  indemnifies  Enders  Analysis  Limited,  its  officers,  employees  and  agents  and  any  entity  which  directly  or  indirectly  controls,  is  controlled  by,  or  is  under  direct  or  indirect  common  control  with  Enders  Analysis  Limited  from  time  to  time,  against  any  direct  or  indirect  loss  or  damage  or  any  other  costs  or  expenses  of  any  kind  which  they  may  incur  directly  or  indirectly  as  a  result  of  the  recipient’s  use  of  this  note.  ©  2012  Enders  Analysis  Limited.  All  rights  reserved.  No  part  of  this  note  may  be  reproduced  or  distributed  in  any  manner  including,  but  not  limited  to,  via  the  internet,  without  the  prior  permission  of  Enders  Analysis  Limited.  If  you  have  not  received  this  note  directly  from  Enders  Analysis  Limited,  your  receipt  is  unauthorised.  Please  return  this  note  to  Enders  Analysis  Limited  immediately.   Platform  Wars,  September  2012   18  

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