The ROI Case for
Solving Ad Fraud
Ted McConnell
Dr. Augustine Fou
January 2014
-1-

Augustine Fou
“Financial advisors always recommend paying
off credit cards before any other kind of
investing... as a sure way to „earn‟...
Ad Productivity
Calculations
-3-

Augustine Fou
Areas of Optimization
30%

40%
30%
-4-

targeting

improving
optimization

delivery
viewability
bots /not seen by humans

...
Worldwide Bot Traffic
51% suspicious
24-29% confirmed bot

Source: Solve Media via Marketing Charts September 12, 2013
-5-...
54% Online Ads Aren’t In View

Source: comScore June 2013 via MarketingCharts
-6-

Augustine Fou
23% of Users Use Adblockers
Source: PageFair, August 2013
Average Adblocking Rate

22.7%

-7-

Augustine Fou
Users Ignoring Ads
Overall, the study finds that online ads are ignored by the largest share of respondents
(82%), with tr...
Properly Targeted Impressions
Source: Nielsen, October 2011

25% average
on-target delivery

Case Example
5% properly targ...
Low Hanging Fruit
The most immediate, direct impact on ROI comes from reducing waste

25% On-Target Delivery
(Nielsen)

82...
Forms of Ad Waste
Source: Ted McConnell, Brand Innovators Summit

I didn’t get what I paid for:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

10% nev...
Display Ad
Productivity
- 12 -

Augustine Fou
Productive Display Ads
Viewable

Human (not bot)
(Solve Media)

71%

x

Human

Viewable
(comScore)

46%

x
77%

Not Adbloc...
Search Ad
Productivity
- 14 -

Augustine Fou
Productive Search Ads
Non-Click Fraud
(Adometry)

Global CTR
(Kenshoo)

83%

1.7%

x

1.4%
Search ads
clicked by
humans

S...
Ad Fraud Reduction
Case Study
- 16 -

Augustine Fou
Before and After

BEFORE

AFTER

Top 2 “good guys” = 76%

Top 5 “good guys” = 94%

18% of spend shifted from fraudulent we...
“If I am only running 10 percent
productive impressions then if I
reduce waste by 10 percent, I
DOUBLE my ROI.”
-- Ted McC...
Current Ad Fraud
Countermeasures
- 19 -

Augustine Fou
Blacklisting Sites
Value
Exclude sites from
serving your ads

- 20 -

Caveat
For every site excluded,
bad guys put up more...
Enforcing Viewability
Value

Caveat

Only pay for ads which
are viewable (i.e. above
the-fold)

Bad guys can defeat
“viewa...
Bot Detection
Value

Caveat

Good guys use algorithms
to detect unusual
behaviors indicative of
bots (rather than humans)
...
Using CAPTCHAs
Value

Caveat

Captchas deter bots from
filling in forms and stealing
content and cookies.

Some bots can n...
“The above countermeasures are all good, and
advertisers should continue using them. But they are
not enough. If the good ...
Subject Matter
Experts
- 25 -

Augustine Fou
Dr. Augustine Fou – Technical Forensics
“I advise clients on optimizing
advertising across all channels. One
main area of ...
Ted McConnell – Digital Consigliere
“My Goals are to drive, and participate
in the process that yields the winning
vision ...
Related Articles
Digital Ad Fraud Briefing
By: Augustine Fou December 2013

Fake YouTube Videos
By: Augustine Fou, Decembe...
APPENDIX
- 29 -

Augustine Fou
White Ops Bot Analysis

Source: White Ops
- 30 -

Augustine Fou
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ROI Case For Solving Digital Ad Fraud by Ted McConnell Augustine Fou

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Productivity of the ads should be a central measure of the usefulness of the ads - which can be directly correlated to ROI for any particular company, any product, in any industry. For example, if an ad is not seen by humans it can never lead to a real purchase of any kind.

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ROI Case For Solving Digital Ad Fraud by Ted McConnell Augustine Fou

  1. 1. The ROI Case for Solving Ad Fraud Ted McConnell Dr. Augustine Fou January 2014 -1- Augustine Fou
  2. 2. “Financial advisors always recommend paying off credit cards before any other kind of investing... as a sure way to „earn‟ 18%. Reducing ad waste due to fraud yields immediate ROI because your ad spend goes towards legit sites with human visitors who can actually convert into paying customers.” -- Augustine Fou -2- Augustine Fou
  3. 3. Ad Productivity Calculations -3- Augustine Fou
  4. 4. Areas of Optimization 30% 40% 30% -4- targeting improving optimization delivery viewability bots /not seen by humans waste reduction Augustine Fou
  5. 5. Worldwide Bot Traffic 51% suspicious 24-29% confirmed bot Source: Solve Media via Marketing Charts September 12, 2013 -5- Source: Solve Media Dec 31 2013 Augustine Fou
  6. 6. 54% Online Ads Aren’t In View Source: comScore June 2013 via MarketingCharts -6- Augustine Fou
  7. 7. 23% of Users Use Adblockers Source: PageFair, August 2013 Average Adblocking Rate 22.7% -7- Augustine Fou
  8. 8. Users Ignoring Ads Overall, the study finds that online ads are ignored by the largest share of respondents (82%), with traditional media ads such as TV ads (37%), radio ads (36%), and newspaper ads (35%) a fair way behind. Drilling down into the results, some interesting demographic differences emerge. Looking first at online ads, the survey indicates that banner ads are ignored by the largest share of respondents overall (73%), followed by social media ads (62%) and search engine ads (59%). In each case the propensity to ignore ads rises alongside age – by a significant degree. Here are some interesting breakdowns: Compared to 18-34-year-olds, the 65+ crowd is: 50% more likely to count online banner ads among those they ignore the most (87% vs. 58%); 58% more likely to ignore social media ads (76% vs. 48%); and 53% more likely to ignore search engine ads (72% vs. 47%). Source: Harris Interactive via MarketingCharts Feb 2014 -8- Augustine Fou
  9. 9. Properly Targeted Impressions Source: Nielsen, October 2011 25% average on-target delivery Case Example 5% properly targeted -9- Augustine Fou
  10. 10. Low Hanging Fruit The most immediate, direct impact on ROI comes from reducing waste 25% On-Target Delivery (Nielsen) 82% Ignored (not relevant) (Harris Interactive) 54% Not In View (not seen) (comScore) 23% Ad Blocked (wasn’t shown) (PageFair) 24 – 29% confirmed bot (Solve Media) - 10 - Augustine Fou
  11. 11. Forms of Ad Waste Source: Ted McConnell, Brand Innovators Summit I didn’t get what I paid for: • • • • • • • • • 10% never get loaded into the browser – Moat 31% are never “in-view” (fraud or not) – comScore 20-80% are off demo target (depending on density) – Nielsen 29% are served to bots – Solve Media 20-40% are over frequency (bots or not) – Audience Science 5-30% are served outside your market geography – comScore 10% (est.) Dwell time < 1 second – SWAG 5% Overzealous Ad Verification (didnt get shown) – SWAG 20% Video: Autoplay, Sound off, Below the fold – TubeMogul Net using average values and statistical overlap: - 11 - 87% wasted Augustine Fou
  12. 12. Display Ad Productivity - 12 - Augustine Fou
  13. 13. Productive Display Ads Viewable Human (not bot) (Solve Media) 71% x Human Viewable (comScore) 46% x 77% Not Adblocked On-Target Not AdBlocked (PageFair) 25% productive - 13 - Augustine Fou
  14. 14. Search Ad Productivity - 14 - Augustine Fou
  15. 15. Productive Search Ads Non-Click Fraud (Adometry) Global CTR (Kenshoo) 83% 1.7% x 1.4% Search ads clicked by humans Since advertisers only pay for the clicks, this is already highly cost effective. But the next area of focus should be the quality of the click – what users do after they click through to site. Counting clicks perpetuates click fraud. - 15 - Augustine Fou
  16. 16. Ad Fraud Reduction Case Study - 16 - Augustine Fou
  17. 17. Before and After BEFORE AFTER Top 2 “good guys” = 76% Top 5 “good guys” = 94% 18% of spend shifted from fraudulent websites to good guys - 17 - Augustine Fou
  18. 18. “If I am only running 10 percent productive impressions then if I reduce waste by 10 percent, I DOUBLE my ROI.” -- Ted McConnell - 18 - Augustine Fou
  19. 19. Current Ad Fraud Countermeasures - 19 - Augustine Fou
  20. 20. Blacklisting Sites Value Exclude sites from serving your ads - 20 - Caveat For every site excluded, bad guys put up more (because they don‟t have to play by the rules). Augustine Fou
  21. 21. Enforcing Viewability Value Caveat Only pay for ads which are viewable (i.e. above the-fold) Bad guys can defeat “viewability” by stuffing ads in hidden layers, all “abovethe-fold” Source: Spider.io May 2, 2013 - 21 - Augustine Fou
  22. 22. Bot Detection Value Caveat Good guys use algorithms to detect unusual behaviors indicative of bots (rather than humans) It’s an arms race between good and bad; bots are more sophisticated and can fake mouse movements and keep cookies. Source: Spider.io March 2013 - 22 - Augustine Fou
  23. 23. Using CAPTCHAs Value Caveat Captchas deter bots from filling in forms and stealing content and cookies. Some bots can now solve some captchas, most captchas don’t protect content pages. Source: Solve Media Dec 31 2013 - 23 - “Startup called Vicarious automatically solves CAPTCHAs.” Oct 2013 http://bit.ly/1bFo9lZ Augustine Fou
  24. 24. “The above countermeasures are all good, and advertisers should continue using them. But they are not enough. If the good guys fight the fight individually, there is little chance they can overcome the entire ecosystem of the bad guys. The good guys need to band together into their own ecosystem and put the bad guys on a „digital ad fraud equivalent to the National Sex Offenders Registry‟.” -- Dr. Augustine Fou - 24 - Augustine Fou
  25. 25. Subject Matter Experts - 25 - Augustine Fou
  26. 26. Dr. Augustine Fou – Technical Forensics “I advise clients on optimizing advertising across all channels. One main area of focus is reducing ad waste due to fraud – fake impressions, clicks, leads, and sales – in order to raise ROI.” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares LinkedIn: http://linkd.in/augustinefou - 26 - @acfou Augustine Fou
  27. 27. Ted McConnell – Digital Consigliere “My Goals are to drive, and participate in the process that yields the winning vision for my clients. I'm a Digital Marketing Generalist: I've Run large organizations, been staff to c-level executives at P&G, hold 4 Patents, successfully driven change in Marketing and Advertising practice in P&G and other companies.” ADVERTISING RESEARCH FOUNDATION MANAGER, DIGITAL MARKETING INNOVATION AdAge Articles: http://adage.com/author/ted-mcconnell/4334 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pub/ted-mcconnell/0/5b5/8a2 - 27 - Augustine Fou
  28. 28. Related Articles Digital Ad Fraud Briefing By: Augustine Fou December 2013 Fake YouTube Videos By: Augustine Fou, December 2013 Ad Fraud Fighting Techniques By: Augustine Fou October 2013 Fake Linkedin Profiles By: Augustine Fou, December 2013 How Display Fraud Works By: Augustine Fou, May 2013 Fake Facebook Profiles By: Augustine Fou, Dec 2013 How Click Fraud Works By: Augustine Fou, November 2013 Fake Twitter Accounts By: Augustine Fou, August 2013 The Magnitude of Digital Ad Fraud By: Augustine Fou, November 2013 - 28 - Augustine Fou
  29. 29. APPENDIX - 29 - Augustine Fou
  30. 30. White Ops Bot Analysis Source: White Ops - 30 - Augustine Fou

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