1. ARTBA: The Leading Source of U.S. Transportation Construction Market Research
TO: CONGRESSIONAL TRANSPORTATION LEGISLATIVE ASSISTANTS
FROM: ARTBA VICE PRESIDENT OF RESEARCH & ECONOMICS, DR. BILL BUECHNER
DATE: MARCH 21, 2014
RE: Perception is Not Reality: The Truth about U.S. Automobile Travel
In virtually every recent congressional hearing and many media reports about federal transportation policy,
the false claim that “Americans are driving less” emerges in some capacity. Federal Highway
Administration (FHWA) data show U.S. vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased 0.3 percent in 2012 and 0.6
percent in 2013. The upward trend is anticipated to continue well into the future as the nation’s economy
and population continues to grow. This factual disconnect confuses discussions about the relative viability
of various means to stabilize the Highway Trust Fund and support future federal highway and public
transportation investments. The reality is that American driving trends are driven largely by macro-
economic forces, not agenda-seizing assertions about shifts in societal behavior. These are the facts:
 A downturn in vehicle miles traveled began after 2007 as the nation’s economy plunged into its
worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Between 2007 and 2009, U.S. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) fell 4.7 percent, the unemployment rate soared to 10 percent, and eight
million Americans lost their jobs. Freight shipments precipitously declined. These factors led to the
recorded VMT decline.
 The variance between when VMT peaked in 2007 and its lowest point in 2011 was 2.8 percent—a
decline far less dramatic than the recurring assertions of a shift in U.S. societal behavior. Further
belying these claims, U.S. VMT has remained above 2.95 trillion miles for 10 consecutive years.
 The economy is now
improving. With
employment rising and
unemployment declining,
growth of highway travel
is resuming. In 2012 and
2013, vehicle miles
traveled on the nation’s
highways rose more than
26 billion miles, offsetting
almost one-third of the
recession-driven decline.
(-more-)
MMEEMMOO
Economics
&
Research

2. VMT Memo/Page 2
 New data from FHWA show VMT decline after 2007 was less than originally thought. Preliminary
data showed a 100 billion mile, or 3.3 percent decline in VMT between 2007 and 2011. The revised
data show a decline of only 85 billion, or 2.8 percent. VMT declined only half as much as did the
nation’s GDP.
There are a number of reasons why highway travel should continue to grow well into the future:
 The economy has not yet fully recovered from the recession. The number of persons employed is
still below its pre-recession level, and the number of unemployed is three million more than at the
start of the recession. As the unemployed go back to work, highway travel will accelerate.
 Each year, the U.S. population grows just under three million, and the number of licensed drivers
grows two million. With each driver in the U.S. averaging just under 12,000 miles per year,
population growth alone will drive VMT up about 25 billion miles per year.
 Truck travel is also expected to grow substantially in the years ahead. The FHWA projects truck
freight will grow to 18.8 million tons by 2040, an increase of almost 50 percent from the 2007 pre-
recession peak.
The reported VMT decline between 2007 and 2011 has been seized by those whose aim is to push for
federal policy that prioritizes non-automobile forms of transportation. The more accurate conclusion,
however, is that U.S. VMT has essentially plateaued over the last 10 years, and modest growth is likely in
the future. As such, the data supports continued federal policy that attempts to address both the nation’s
highway and public transportation needs.