This presentation was delivered at the IX International Workshop on Planning and Evaluation, held at the Mediterranean Agriculture Institute Bari, Valenzano (BA), Italy, on March 16, 2015.

1. +
Evaluation and spatial planning – in the name of what? Building climate
change adaptive capacity across planning domains in Europe
Alessandro Bonifazi - Independent researcher/Politecnico di Bari: alebonifazi@gmail.com
Paola Gazzola - Global Urban Research Unit, School of Architecture, Planning and Landscape,
Newcastle University: paola.gazzola@ncl.ac.uk
IX International Workshop on
Planning and Evaluation
Strategies for the Environment:
Evaluating and Planning for
Extreme Events
Mediterranean Agriculture Institute Bari,
Valenzano (BA), Italy
March 16-17, 2015

2. +Focusses come (Climate change) and go (Sustainable
development) in policy agendas (Dryzek, 2005), and frictions
arise....
n Opportunity: Climate change mitigation and adaptation policies
are expanding the scope of planning and evaluation after decades
of declining salience (Albrechts 2004; Davoudi 2012b).
n Threat:The creative compromises between economic
development and environmental protection that underpinned most
sustainability-oriented planning practices are put under pressure by
the prescriptive nature of climate change policies (Dryzek, 2005;
While et al., 2010)
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3. +Outline
n Framing climate change adaptive capacity
n Guiding research questions
n Is adaptation about making new/different kinds of plans?
n Or,does adaptation rather entail carrying out new/different kinds of evaluations?
n Nay,it must be about strengthening adaptive capacity in spatially organized
governance processes,mustn’t it?
n Reflecting on the role of evaluation in planning for climate change adaptive
capacity-building
n The way forward
n Building adaptive capacity to climate change through planning and evaluation: a
conceptual framework
n Comparative case study: emerging adaptation practices in planning and evaluation
in Bari (Italy) and Newcastle (UK) metropolitan areas
n Discussion:Whatever climate change adaptation be about, in the name of what is it
driving evaluation in planning?
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4. +Framing climate change adaptive capacity
differentiation vs conceptual stretching
n IPCC:“Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or
expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation
seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial
opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may
facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects.” (IPCC
2014b: 1251)
n EU (EC+EEA): Adaptation needs a mix of options (grey options rely
on technology and civil engineering projects; green options make
use of nature; and soft options aim at altering human behaviour and
styles of governance) and complex governance networks, in terms
of vertical (European, national, regional, local) and horizontal
(across socio-economic sectors and between regions) policy
integration (EEA, 2013)
4

5. +
n A human intervention to
reduce the sources or enhance
the sinks of greenhouse gases
(GHGs)...(or) to reduce the
sources of other substances
(particulate matter, nitrogen
oxides, etc.) which may
contribute directly or
indirectly to limiting climate
change (IPCC 2014b: 1266-7).
n The measures introduced to
avoid irrecoverable or
unjustifiable damages, reduce
or repair negative impacts,
enhance positive effects, offset
or compensate for
unavoidable losses (Therivel,
2004)
Mitigation (Climate change) Mitigation (Impact Assessment)
Framing climate change adaptive capacity
differentiation vs conceptual stretching
5

6. +Framing climate change adaptive capacity
...based on vulnerability
6

7. + 7
n Adaptive capacity:“The ability of systems, institutions,
humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage,
to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to
consequences” (IPCC 2014b: 1251).
n Adaptations are manifestations of adaptive capacity, and
they represent ways of reducing vulnerability and/or
strengthening resilience (adapted after Smit and Walden,
2006: 286)
Framing climate change adaptive capacity

8. +
n Focus: from biophysical
vulnerability to wider social
and economic drivers
n Decision-Making Model:
incrementalism dominates,
irrespective of growing claims
that transformative change
may be needed
n Measures: engineered and
technological options are the
most commonly adopted, but
ecosystem-based, institutional,
and social responses are
emerging
n Social actors: growing
awareness does not translate
into action (...), local
government and the private
sector critical to progress,
safety nets for the most
vulnerable
Framing climate change adaptive capacity
state-of-the-art in adaptation to climate change
(IPCC,2014b: 836-7)
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9. +
Is adaptation about
making new/different
kinds of plans?

10. A STRONGER,
MORE RESILIENT
NEW YORK
2007 2013Hurricane Sandy (2012)
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11. +
CATEGORY METRIC 2030 TARGET
FIGURE FOR MOST
RECENT YEAR
TREND SINCE
BASE YEAR
HOUSINGAND
NEIGHBORHOODS
Create homes for almost a million more New Yorkers while making housing and neighborhoods more affordable and sustainable
Increase in new housing units since January, 2007 314,000 125,8372
% of new units within a 1/2 mile of transit > 70% 82.7% 1
NEUTRAL
Affordable housing units preserved or added (cumulative since 200 165,000 156,3512
PARKSAND
PUBLICSPACE
Ensure all New Yorkers live within a 10-minute walk of a park
% of New Yorkers that live within a 1/4 mile of a park 85% 76.5% 1
Cumulative number of trees planted through Million Trees initiative 1,000,000 834,0151
ENERGY
Reduce energy consumption and make our energy systems cleaner and more reliable
Greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electrical power (lbs CO2
e/MWh) DECREASE 674.9112
AIRQUALITY
Achieve the cleanest air quality of any big U.S. city
City ranking in average PM2.5
(3 yr rolling avg) compared to other large U.S. cities #1 (cleanest air) #41
NEUTRAL
Change in average PM2.5
(year-on-year % change in 3 yr rolling avg) DECREASE -0.5%1
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 30%
Increase the resiliency of our communities, natural systems, and infrastructure to climate risks
Greenhouse gas emissions (MTCO2
e) DECREASE 30% 3
47,939,030 (19%)2
SOLID
WASTE
Achieve the cleanest air quality of any big U.S. city
Percentage of waste diverted from landfills (includes fill) 75% 52% 1
1 Results are for FY or CY 2013
2 Results are for FY or CY 2012
3 From 2005 levels
Not on Track
On Track
PlaNYC 2007-11 (greener, greater...) 11

12. +PlaNYC 2013 (stronger, more resilient...)
CATEGORY METRIC
COASTAL PROTECTION
BUILDINGS
Number of buildings implementing Core Flood Resiliency Measures
Number of square feet of residential and non-residential buildings implementing Core Flood resiliency measures
INSURANCE
Percent of residences in 100-year floodplain purchasing flood insurance
Average premium paid for National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies
UTILITIES
Percent of electric generation capacity in the 500-year floodplain able to remain online after a 500-year flood
Maximum percent of peak load that could be lost due to failure of any one substation
Percent of assets at or above their loading limits during peak demand periods
Number of miles of cast iron and bare steel gas mains in the 500-year floodplain
Percent of steam generation capacity in the 500-year floodplain able to remain online after a 500-year flood
LIQUID FUELS
Percent of gas stations with quick-connects for generators
Percent of regional fuel terminal capacity in the 100-year floodplain hardened against a 100-year flood
Percent of regional refining capacity in the 100-year floodplain hardened against a 100-year flood
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Number of critical telecommunications facilities implementing Core Flood Resiliency Measures
TRANSPORTATION
Number of lane-miles reconstructed or resurfaced
Percent of New York City transportation assets adapted for climate change resiliency
WATER AND WASTEWATER
Number of wastewater facilities or assets protected or raised above the 100-year floodplain
Number of right-of-way bioswales constructed
Number of sewer miles built in areas with no or partial sewers
Number of Bluebelt Best Management Practices (BMPs)
Percent of water quality samples complying with Surface Water Treatment Rule standard for turbidity
SOLID WASTE Number of DSNY facilities protected or raised above the 100-year floodplain
HEALTHCARE Percent of hospital beds in 500-year floodplain meeting resiliency standards
Percent of beds in nursing homes and adult care facilities in 100-year floodplain meeting resiliency requirements
FOOD SUPPLY
Number of grocery stores with generators or quick connects for generators
Percent of DCAS food procurement backstopped with more resilient distributors
PARKS
Percent of DPR facilities in Sandy inundation zone upgraded for greater resiliency
Number of trees inspected and pruned
Federal dollars secured for coastal protection projects
Number of buildings with reduced coastal risk due to coastal protection projects
Number of cubic yards of beach sand nourishment
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13. +The relationships between adaptation plans
and other planning domains
Department of City Planning
Mayor’s Office of
Long-Term
Planning and
Sustainability
Mayor’s Office of
Recovery and
Resiliency
PlaNYC 2007-11 PlaNYC 2013
Sustainability
indicators
Resilience
metrics
Annual Progress Report 2014
Within PlaNYC Beyond PlaNYC
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14. +First wave of climate adaptation plans is found
to be...
...wanting in many respects:
n lagging behind mitigation
policy
n poorly appreciating diversity
in local governance contexts
n resembling climate impact
assessment, and disregarding
implementation
n disintegrated from existing
policies
(Preston et al.2012; Stone et al.2012)
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15. +First wave of climate adaptation plans is found
to be...
...not ready to deliver adaptation
(Preston et al.2012)
15

16. +
Adaptation Policy Cycle (EEA,2013)
16

17. +
Adaptation Policy adoption in EU (EEA,2013)
17

18. +
Adaptation Policy adoption and diffusion in EU (EEA,2013)
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19. +Is adaptation about making new/different
kinds of plans?
n IPCC’s latest recommendations (AR5) address spatial planning
mainly for mitigation, and urban areas because highly vulnerable
(physical density of people and built environment) and key
adaptation drivers (relational,cognitive and social intensity in urban
dynamics)
n Adaptation in Nature conservation and environmental risk
planning = re-labelling (to further legitimize) or amendments to
existing plans (Archie et al., 2012; Runhaar et al., 2012)
n Diffusion of adaptation within municipal planning is meeting with
similar problems than earlier innovations, but leadership (also from
within the ranks) and accommodating competing priorities are
key to advancing the global/local interplay in climate policy
(Measham et al., 2011)
Adaptation in different planning domains
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20. +Is adaptation about making new/different
kinds of plans?
n Spatial planning potential in climate change adaptation is
great:
n (alleged) long-term perspective
n coordination role - transport, regional development, land use,
biodiversity, industry, tourism, energy, water, risks, etc.
n wide scope, from strategic to operational levels
n Achievements are very limited yet:
n poor institutionalization (at legislative, administrative and practice
level)
n perceived barriers are the same as in other policy fields
(resources, knowledge, leadership)
n promising opportunities depend on planners’ ownership of
adaptation and could build on experts and authorities’ networks
Adaptation in spatial planning
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21. +
Or,does adaptation
rather entail
carrying out new/
different kinds of
evaluations?

22. +Adaptive capacity assessment, based on the ESPON CLIMATE 2013
Programme framework (Juhola and Kruse, 2015)pt Strateg Glob Change (2015) 20:99–120 107
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23. + 23

24. Regional Assessment Determinants Dimensions Determinants Alpine Tourism
Educational commitment
Knowledge and
awareness
AWARENESS Knowledge and
awareness
Problem awareness;
attitudes to climate change
Computer skills Access to information
Attitudes towards climate
change
Knowledge gaps/missing
information
Resources of technology
Technology
ABILITY
Demand for further
education/training
Capacity to undertake
research
Technology
Capacity for research and
development
Patents
Transport
Infrastructure Infrastructure
Natural assets/
attractiveness of natural env.
Water exploitation
Cultural assets/
attractiveness of heritage
Hospital (beds and doctors)
Government effectiveness
Institutions
ACTION
Institutions
Structure of tourism sector
Democracy Regional cooperation
National adaptation
strategies
Income per capita
Economic
resources
Economic
resources
Diversity of sector
Long term unemployment Capacity for innovation
Age dependency ratio

25. +Sustainability Appraisal of London’s Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy 2010 - Summary of the findings on flooding policy
February 2010
SA Report
Part B:
Appraisal
Table 19: Summary of appraisal findings – flooding
Sustainability Appraisal Objectives
1.Governance
2.Educationand
Awareness
3.HealthandWell-being
4.EqualityandDiversity
5.SafetyandSecurity
6.LiveabilityandPlace
7.Accessibilityand
Availability
8.Landscape,Historic
andCultural
Environment
9.Biodiversity
10.AirQuality
11.ClimateChange40
12.WaterQualityand
WaterResources41
13WasteManagement
14Economy
Impacts of climate change in London (predicted effects of climate change on sustainability without the draft Strategy but with
existing / planned adaptation i.e. Business as usual alternative)
Medium-term (2020s) + +/++ - - -/0 -/0 - -/0 -? 0?
- -?
- -
-/+ -?
Long-term (2050+) + ++? --? -/--? --? -/--? --? -/--? --? -?
--? --?
-? --?
-? --?
Impacts of the Draft Strategy in isolation (predicted effects on sustainability of the draft Strategy as an initial framework for
adaptation)
Medium-term (2020s) +/++ + 0/+ 0/+ + -/+ 0/+ -/+ -/+ 0
-/0 +
0/-/+ 0/+
+ 0/+?
Long-term (2050+) +? 0/+ 0/+ 0/+ 0/+ -/+ 0/+ -/+ -/+? 0
- +
0/-/+ +
+ 0/+?
Impacts of climate change in London with the draft Strategy (predicted effects of climate change on sustainability with the draft
Strategy and existing / planned adaptation)
Medium-term (2020s) +/++ +/++ - - 0/+ -/0 - -/0 -? 0?
- -?
- -
+/0 -?
Long-term (2050+) +/++? ++? --? -/--? --? -/--? --? -/--? --? -?
--? --?
-? --?
-/0 --?
Key to effects:
Major positive: ++ Minor positive: + Neutral: 0 Minor negative: - Major negative: - - Uncertain:? Mixed: -/+
6.35 Policy 1 and associated actions 1 – 9 are predicted to have generally positive effects on the
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26. +Sustainability Appraisal of London’s Climate Change Adaptation
Strategy 2010 – What difference does it make?
February 2010
SA Report
Part B:
Appraisal
Element of draft
Strategy
Key changes resulting from the Sustainability Appraisal process
communities added.
Actions  Encouragement to cover all the dimensions of the Prevent, Prepare, Respond, Recover
adaptation framework in the actions which led to several additions.
 Comments and recommendations led to the amendment and addition of some specific
actions, such as:
o Inclusion of an action seeking the development of community flood plans /
emergency plans.
o The inclusion of an action relating to water neutrality under policy 2.
o Addition of text referring to regular review of the Mayor’s Water Strategy under
Policy 2.
 Cross-cutting actions included in the draft Strategy were not included in previous drafts.
Some of these address issues raised by the SA, in particular:
 Action 32 relating to the role of the insurance industry in adaptation.
 Action 31 encouraging businesses and the private sector to take climate change into
account in risk management and planning.
 Action 33 relating to the role of TfL and importance of the need for adaptation action
related to infrastructure.
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27. +European Commission Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and
Biodiversity into Strategic Environmental Assessment (2013)
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28. +European Commission Guidance on Integrating Climate Change and
Biodiversity into Strategic Environmental Assessment (2013):
examples of alternatives and mitigation measures related to adaptation
Encourage car sharing
Prioritise high density urban PPs (smaller housing at higher density) and reuse of brownfie
land
GHG emissions from
energy production
Generic recommendations are intentionally not provided as these are context-specific,
depending upon the energy production capacity and energy supply sources of the area in
question
Potential synergies between adaptation and GHG reduction
Forests and biodiversity Investment in wetlands to support carbon sequestration to offset PP's GHG emissions.
Table 12: Examples of alternatives and mitigation measures related to climate change adaptation
Main concerns related to: Examples of alternatives and/or mitigation measures at the assessment stage
Heat waves Avoid development patterns that fragment habitat corridors or, for linear infrastructures,
make sure that habitat continuity is restored in the most sensitive areas
Improvements in urban structure — expansion of green areas, open water surfaces and
wind paths (along rivers and waterfronts) in urban areas to reduce the possible heat
island effect
Encourage greater use of green roofs
Reduce man-made exhausts during heat waves (industries, and car traffic)
Awareness-raising about risks associated with heat waves and action to reduce them
Heat wave early warning systems and response plans
Potential synergies between adaptation and GHG reduction
Droughts Encourage water efficiency measures
Explore efficient use/re-use of rainwater and grey water
Restrictions on excessive/non-essential use water use during droughts (depending on
their severity)
Minimise low flow withdrawals
Restrictions for effluent discharges into water bodies during droughts
Maintain and improve the resilience of watersheds and aquatic ecosystems by
implementing practices that protect, maintain, and restore watershed processes and
services
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29. +
Nay,adaptation
must be about
strengthening
adaptive capacity in
spatially organized
governance
processes,mustn’t
it?

30. +
Anticipatory Governance
n developing a range of possible scenarios – none of which
can serve all planning purposes
n shaping very flexible adaptation strategies
n collapsing monitoring and action in a flow of reflective
practices
the need for longer-term perspectives and persistent
uncertainties calls for (Fuerth, 2009; Quay, 2010):
30

31. +
Anticipatory Governance
n open strategies (focussed on preserving future options)
n contingency plans, to respond to specific scenarios
(including the worst ones)
n no-regrets strategies (near-term actions with minimal losses
if discontinued)
Anticipatory governance echoes strategic planning, with its
stress on robust actions (Khakee, 1998)
... would entail creating flexible action packages (Fuerth, 2009;
Quay, 2010:
31

32. +Anticipatory Governance: flexible adaptation
pathways for Thames Estuary 2100
32

33. +Anticipatory Governance: incremental vs
transformative change in action-learning cycles
33

34. +Reflecting on the role of evaluation in planning
for climate change adaptive capacity-building
n Climate change policy bringing about more planning and
further diversified evaluation
n No really “new” concepts yet, but rather a push towards
incrementalism (“muddling through”) and strategic
approaches
n Three fascinating research perspectives:
n longer and twisted planning timelines (flexible pathways)
n growing attention to social, cultural and political contexts in
shaping adaptation policy adoption, diffusion and mobility
n harnessing evaluation “bridging potential” in highly fragmented
planning landscapes
34

35. +Reflecting on the role of evaluation in planning
for climate change adaptive capacity-building
n Climate change within a broader shift towards the “risk
society” (Beck, 1999)
n The social construction of Nature is shifting (Davoudi, 2014)
from an asset and a context for development (sustainability),
to a threat to society (climate risk)
n Cf. PlaNYC, 2007 (137):“The sobering images of Hurricane Katrina
still haunt us - a testament to our vulnerability in the face of
nature’s ferocity”
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36. +
Thank you!
Alessandro Bonifazi - Independent researcher/
Politecnico di Bari: alebonifazi@gmail.com
Paola Gazzola - Global Urban Research Unit, School
of Architecture, Planning and Landscape, Newcastle
University: paola.gazzola@ncl.ac.uk
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