Following demonetization, several individuals and organizations started making use of the data available to them, or the data they could access, to explain trends and show truths from the ground. James Wilson made one such effort. He accessed data from government websites and analyzed it to explain issues surrounding demonetization. Through this talk, James explains what is the scope for individuals and collectives to access public data in payments, where does it exist and how best to analyze and disseminate this data.

1. Open Data –
Currency& Payments
ER. JAMES WILSON
jamewils@gmail.com
https://decipherdemon.blogspot.in/
twitter.com/jamewils

2. Demonetisation 8th November 2016
Cash restrictions – Why?
Qty & Value of SBN –media mute!
When restrictions removed – No idea!
No change for new Rs. 2000 note
No Rs.500 Note anywhere

3. Composition of the denominations

4. Pivot denomination

5. Currency in Circulation increased

6. Total SBN demonetised 86.4%
₹500
• 17165 Million pieces (₹8.582 lakh crores)
₹1000
• 6858 Million pieces(₹6.858 lakh crores)

7. Currency Print Capacities - Yearly
Nashik -5800 million
Dewas – 2820 million
Mysore & Salboni – 16000 million

8. RTI revelations
2.4732 billion ₹2000 notes in stock8/11/2016
• ₹500 notes – nil stock
₹500 notes printing started23/11/2016

9. New HDN to be printed
₹2000
• 956 million
₹500
• 17165 million
Total
• 18121 million

10. Two Scenarios of Printing
Regular – 271 days
6th August 2017
Mysore & Salboni (2 shifts)
Nashik & Dewas (max)
66.90 million/day
Ultimate – 204 days
31st May 2017
Mysore & Salboni (3 shifts)
Nashik & Dewas (max)
88.82 million/day

11. Look at some recent figures
Currency on Circulation on 4/11/16 – 17,977 billion
SBN on Circulation on 8/11/16 – 15,440 billion
Lower Denomination on 8/11/16 – 2,557 billion
 Currency on Circulation on 13/01/17 – 9,508.03 billion
 HDN on Circulation on 13/01/17 – 7,251.03 billion (47%)
 HDN (₹2000 alone) on 8/11/16 – 4,946.4 billion
 HDN issued between 8/11/16 & 13/01/17 – 2,304.63 billion (66 days)
 Balance HDN to be issued – 8,188.97 billion (………..days?)

12. data is out and open…look for it
RBI
• Annual reports
• Reports of Working
Group
• Database on Indian
economy
• Press Releases &
Circulars
• Acts & Rules
Finance Ministry
• Committee/Study
Reports
• Gazette notifications &
circulars
• Annual Report of
SPMCIL
• FIU, CBCE, CBDT
Parliament
• Question & Answers of
Finance Ministry
• House Panel Reports

13. Enough info/reports are available in
the internet
 Study Reports by International agencies like World bank,
Visa, Master Card, Fletcher School, Boston Consulting
Group & Google, McKinsey, CDFI, IIT, etc
 Open Data bases of Central Statistical Organisation,
National Crime Record Bureau, etc
 Articles published in international financial journals
through Google Scholar

14. Currency- GDP ratio

15. Currency with Public Vs GDP

16. Currency vs Broad Money (M3)

17. Currency vs Broad Money

18. Factors effecting currency demand
 Economic, Economic, technological, cultural and sociological factors
that influence currency demand differ across countries.
 The cross-country variations in growth, inflation and interest rates,
the rate of direct and indirect taxes, the share of informal and
underground economy in the overall economic activity influences
 Organization of economic activity (viz., dominance of retail vis-à-vis
large-scale business), regulation of various modes of payment,
proportion of migrant workers, etc. are among the important
explanatory economic factors.
 The extent and type of financial innovations also impact currency
demand.

19. 9 times Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is
needed to reduce CIC-GDP ratio to 1%

20. VISA Study, October 2016
 Accelerating The Growth of Digital Payments in India
– 5 year outlook
 For a total investment of about INR 60,000 crores
over 5 years, India could reduce its cost of cash from
1.7% to 1.3% of GDP
 Further it could result in savings of about INR 70,000
crores over the next five years.
 Increase the numbers of acceptance points to about
4 million
 Add about 40.9 million households to the financial
system.

21. Cash - some final words
 For last 2600 years cash is the dominant form of
transaction globally
 Challenging the behaviour of use of cash is like
replacing fire or wheel
 Choice should be left to the stake holders whether
they want to transact with cash or digital form
 Currency represents unique combination of security,
liquidity and privacy