Wfs Conference Dr Elisabeth Dostal

  • 380 views
Uploaded on

Dr Dostal on the Ideal Future

Dr Dostal on the Ideal Future

More in: Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
380
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
15
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. World Future Society Conference The role of the ideal future and how to get there © Dr Elisabeth Dostal 7 May 2010
  • 2. challenge we know what caused the finance crisis, but we don’t know what to do about it (G-20 Summit, March 2009) we can also replace “finance crisis” with  climate change,  poverty,  crime,  terrorism,  unemployment,  population explosion,  etc. ©
  • 3. summary of my talk we need: (1) a worldview that can deal with complexity systems thinking (2) change our future course ideal future designs (1) new thinking about governance stakeholder governance ©
  • 4. (1) changing our worldview ©
  • 5. fundamental problems with our worldview  the logic of the problem is not the logic of the solution  the problem does not contain the solution  “more of the same” reinforces the problem  problems have multiple causes ©
  • 6. problems and cofactors poverty ©
  • 7. fundamental problems with our worldview  the logic of the problem is not the logic of the solution  problems have multiple causes  issues are interrelated  interrelating problems make each other worse ©
  • 8. issues are interrelated population climate explosion change health crisis poverty education crisis inadequate infrastructure unemploy- ment energy violence shortage ©
  • 9. fundamental problems with our worldview  the logic of the problem is not the logic of the solution  problems have multiple causes  issues are interrelated  interrelating problems make each other worse  solutions in one area can give rise to problems in another  vicious circles
  • 10. solutions in one area can create problems in another e.g. solving poverty through more economic development reinforces climate change (or energy shortages, etc.) poverty economic climate development change ©
  • 11. fundamental problems with our worldview  the logic of the problem is not the logic of the solution  problems have multiple causes  issues are interrelated  the current situation has momentum  it tends to get worse over time  we don’t notice gradual deterioration
  • 12. current future • momentum • forecasting • current future scenarios • current logic • gradual deterioration current situation current futures time ©
  • 13. (2) how do we change our future course? ©
  • 14. systems have a conceptual and physical reality  conceptual reality in-forms physical reality in-forms  if the current situation is undesirable, it indicates that conceptual reality there is need for changing conceptual reality (i.e. redesign) physical  redesigning its conceptual reality reality trans-forms the system indicates ©
  • 15. role of the ideal future • redesign conceptual reality as an ideal future • the ideal future represents a different (higher order) logic • one can backcast strategies from the ideal future • acting according to the new strategies brings about a gradual improvement of the system towards new and more desirable outcomes ideal • problems get dissolved future backcasting current situation current futures forecasting ©
  • 16. current versus ideal future the future is created by default or design default: current future design: ideal future either way we are responsible for our future ©
  • 17. how do we redesign the future? summary: • choose a design framework • analyse the current situation • create an ideal design • generate alignment around the design • make implementation plan • implement • monitor results ©
  • 18. framework: multiple levels planet co-factors society institution organisation group individual cell molecule ©
  • 19. framework: multiple levels and dimension psychological technological physiological ecological economic physical political cultural planet international society X national society X institution organisation X group X X individual X X cell © etc.
  • 20. analyse the current situation and create an ideal design multi-level and multi-dimensional design ideal future multi-level and multi-dimensional analysis current current situation futures ©
  • 21. aligning stakeholders around the design St 9 aligning stakeholders St 8 involves design St 1 St 2 iterations St 3 St 7 IDEAL DESIGN St 10 St 4 St 12 St 6 St 5 St 11 ©
  • 22. implementation plan Outcomes Based Education 1. redesign curriculum 2. new schoolbooks 3. train teachers ideal 4. administer system 1 future 5. etc. 2 3 Primary Health Care current current 1. build clinics situation futures 2. staff clinics 3. equip clinics 4. administer system time 5. etc. ©
  • 23. strategic plan: cascading aims in time ideal future current situation current futures ©
  • 24. (3) who should redesign the future and implement the designed strategy? ©
  • 25. current governance government cabinet government government government department department department private sector private sector private sector NGOs NGOs NGOs function specific strategy function specific strategy function specific strategy©
  • 26. transversal (multi-functional) strategic design housing health education strategy environment employment energy ©
  • 27. stakeholder governance government cabinet Ideal Design of a Transversal Issue government government government department department department private sector private sector private sector NGOs NGOs NGOs function specific strategy transversal / cooperative strategy ©
  • 28. implement the plans  each stakeholder implements the strategies it is responsible for  the sum total of even seemingly insignificant strategies dissolves the problems associated with the transversal issue ©
  • 29. homework  what is your contribution  (from your functional perspective)  to the dissolving of our collective problems? ©