More Related Content Similar to Wfs Conference Dr Elisabeth Dostal (20) More from Michael Lee (7) Wfs Conference Dr Elisabeth Dostal1. World Future Society Conference
The role of the ideal future
and how to get there
© Dr Elisabeth Dostal
7 May 2010
2. challenge
we know what caused the finance crisis,
but we don’t know what to do about it
(G-20 Summit, March 2009)
we can also replace “finance crisis” with
climate change,
poverty,
crime,
terrorism,
unemployment,
population explosion,
etc.
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3. summary of my talk
we need:
(1) a worldview that can deal with complexity
systems thinking
(2) change our future course
ideal future designs
(1) new thinking about governance
stakeholder governance
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5. fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
the problem does not contain the solution
“more of the same” reinforces the problem
problems have multiple causes
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7. fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
problems have multiple causes
issues are interrelated
interrelating problems make each other worse
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8. issues are interrelated
population climate
explosion change
health crisis
poverty
education
crisis
inadequate
infrastructure
unemploy-
ment
energy violence
shortage
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9. fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
problems have multiple causes
issues are interrelated
interrelating problems make each other worse
solutions in one area can give rise to problems in
another
vicious circles
10. solutions in one area can create problems in another
e.g. solving poverty through more economic development
reinforces climate change (or energy shortages, etc.)
poverty
economic climate
development change
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11. fundamental problems with our worldview
the logic of the problem is not the logic of the
solution
problems have multiple causes
issues are interrelated
the current situation has momentum
it tends to get worse over time
we don’t notice gradual deterioration
12. current future
• momentum
• forecasting
• current future scenarios
• current logic
• gradual deterioration
current
situation current
futures
time ©
14. systems have a conceptual and physical reality
conceptual reality in-forms
physical reality
in-forms if the current situation is
undesirable, it indicates that
conceptual
reality
there is need for changing
conceptual reality (i.e. redesign)
physical redesigning its conceptual reality
reality trans-forms the system
indicates
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15. role of the ideal future
• redesign conceptual reality as an ideal future
• the ideal future represents a different (higher order) logic
• one can backcast strategies from the ideal future
• acting according to the new strategies brings about a
gradual improvement of the system towards new and
more desirable outcomes
ideal
• problems get dissolved future
backcasting
current
situation current
futures
forecasting
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16. current versus ideal future
the future is created by default or design
default: current future
design: ideal future
either way we are responsible for our future
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17. how do we redesign the future?
summary:
• choose a design framework
• analyse the current situation
• create an ideal design
• generate alignment around the design
• make implementation plan
• implement
• monitor results
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19. framework: multiple levels and dimension
psychological
technological
physiological
ecological
economic
physical
political
cultural
planet
international society X
national society X
institution
organisation X
group X X
individual X X
cell ©
etc.
20. analyse the current situation and create an ideal design
multi-level and multi-dimensional design
ideal
future
multi-level and multi-dimensional analysis
current current
situation futures
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21. aligning stakeholders around the design
St 9
aligning stakeholders
St 8
involves design
St 1
St 2
iterations
St 3
St 7 IDEAL DESIGN St 10
St 4
St 12
St 6
St 5
St 11
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22. implementation plan
Outcomes Based Education
1. redesign curriculum
2. new schoolbooks
3. train teachers
ideal 4. administer system
1
future 5. etc.
2
3
Primary Health Care
current
current 1. build clinics
situation futures 2. staff clinics
3. equip clinics
4. administer system
time 5. etc.
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24. (3) who should redesign the future and
implement the designed strategy?
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25. current governance
government
cabinet
government
government government department
department department
private sector
private sector private sector
NGOs
NGOs NGOs
function specific strategy function specific strategy function specific strategy©
27. stakeholder governance
government
cabinet
Ideal Design of a
Transversal Issue
government
government government department
department department
private sector
private sector private sector
NGOs
NGOs NGOs
function specific strategy transversal / cooperative strategy ©
28. implement the plans
each stakeholder implements the strategies it is
responsible for
the sum total of even seemingly insignificant
strategies dissolves the problems associated
with the transversal issue
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29. homework
what is your contribution
(from your functional perspective)
to the dissolving of our collective problems?
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