Estimation - The next level - and beyond


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IT estimation must make a move from size estimation that is translated to cost to an integral cost estimation practice. This is supported by the Basis of Estimate, a joint standard from NESMA and AACEi. Added is a special welcom for the IWSM 2014 in Rotterdam.

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Estimation - The next level - and beyond

  1. 1. Ton Dekkers IWSM – Ankara – October 25th 2013 NEtherlands Software Metrics users Association
  2. 2. Ton Dekkers - Roles  Netherlands Software Metrics Association (NESMA) President  International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG) Past President  Common Software Measurement International Consortium (COSMIC) International Advisory Committee  Dutch Association of Cost Engineers (DACE) WG Parametric Estimation
  3. 3. Estimation concepts Most common techniques  Extrapolation from Actuals  Expert Opinion Southgate Pedestrian Bridge, Melbourne
  4. 4. Cost Estimating  The process of collecting and analyzing historical data and applying quantitative models, techniques, tools, and databases to predict the future cost of an item, product, program, or task Purpose of cost estimating:  Translate system/functional requirements associated with programs, projects, proposals, or processes into budget requirements  Determine and communicate a realistic view of the likely cost (effort, schedule) outcome, which can form the basis of the plan for executing the work
  5. 5. A Bridge to the Future Historical data Estimate Time now Source: ICEAA training
  6. 6. Cost Estimation Techniques  Analogy  Build-Up  Parametric
  7. 7. Parametric Estimating - Process  Collect Data Relevant, Reliable NOW: CEBoK Cost Engineering Body of Knowledge  Normalise Data Cost level, activity level  Determine correlations  Validate correlations R2 > 0.8 is useable  Adjust Data Set when necessary  Define CER/EER  Estimate the new object 2012 ISPA & SCEA are merged into ICEAA
  8. 8. About • Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering - International • A not-for-profit organisation • Recommended Practices 17R-97: Cost Estimate Classification System 34R-05: Basis of Estimate 40R-08: Contingency Estimating: General Principles 42R-08: Risk Analysis and Contingency Determination Using Parametric Estimating • Certification Certified Cost Consultant™ (CCC™) Certified Cost Engineer™ (CCE™) Certified Estimating Professional™ (CEP™) •
  9. 9. Simplified Estimation Model size risk analysis productivity risks gross hours measures influences consequences hours (& money)
  10. 10. Size  Basis of Estimate  Quantity Metrics: excavation and backfill quantities, concrete volumes, piping quantities, ... These may be organized by facilities, process train or manufacturing unit.  Basis of Estimate – Software Services  Requirements: number of use cases, number of backlog items, ...  Functional size: Function points Measurement methods: IFPUG, NESMA, COSMIC, FiSMA, …  Technical size: (source) lines of code, number of interfaces, modules, …  Service size: number of incidents, tickets, users, locations, … These may include expected error range, level of accuracy and method of ‘measuring’ (e.g. detailed, extrapolated, estimated, derived)
  11. 11. Basis of Estimate for Software Services General aspects Basis Risk Mitigation Quality
  12. 12. Mapping to NESMA interest areas Sizing Basis Requirements Functional technical Effort Basis delivery constraints, service levels Planning Basis Working time standby Cost Basis methods and sources , units Benchmarking Comparisons to similar engagements
  13. 13. The Tax System Case Study
  14. 14. Basis of Estimate in Practice Good H A L na L A H Poor
  15. 15. Conclusions from supplier perspective  Estimation (validation) Consistent structure (e.g. Basis of Estimate) Embedded process  Benchmarking Validation Estimate / Proposal Historical data (Internal/External)  Metrification Consistent approach Auditable calculations (e.g. tool-based)  Management & Control Metrification (direct data collection) Re-estimation (reflecting direct data) Risk Control
  16. 16. Estimation : The next level
  17. 17. Frank Vogelezang IWSM – Ankara – October 25th 2013 NEtherlands Software Metrics users Association
  18. 18. The next level and beyond  Widening the scope from sizing, to cost drivers, through cost estimation relations to estimating, project control and historical benchmark data.  In cooperation with others like ISBSG, MAIN, DACE, PMI  Products that can be of interest outside the Netherlands will be made available in English  Active working groups with short cycles to deliver  Estimation Measurement Standards  Estimating Packaged Software  COSMIC Approximation
  19. 19. I hope to see you next year