This slide covers the USA foreign Policy about Afghanistan and Pakistan from Bush era to Obama era. Your feedbacks are welcomed on mjf110@gmail.com +92-313-3132995

1. U.S. AF-Pak
Policy
By: M.Jawad Shigri
Ph.D (IR) 1094-315022
MJF110@GMAIL.COM
Preston University Islamabad Pakistan

2. AF Pak Policy and War on Terror
1. The Bush Administration’s Policy
2. The Obama Administration’s Policy
3. Implication on South Asia

3. U.S. foreign assistance
Brief History of U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan
 Pre-9/11 Clinton & Bush Administration Policy
 Both held talks with Taliban to moderate its policies
 Both withheld recognition of Taliban as the legitimate government of
Afghanistan
 Both urged the end of discrimination against women
 Clinton fires cruise misses at AQ training camps in eastern Afghanistan
and gets UN to adopt sanctions after AQ bombings of U.S. embassies in
Tanzania and Kenya
 Bush steps up engagement with Pakistan; considers military assistance to
Northern Alliance but refrains from doing so.

4. U.S. foreign assistance
Brief History of U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan
 Post-9/11 Bush Administration Policy
 the U.S. overthrows Taliban when it refuses to extradite Osama Bin
Laden, completed by December 2001
 Focus is on security assistance; U.S. has “lead country” role in building
capacity of the Afghan National Army
 Adds a Marine battalion in 2008

5. U.S. foreign assistance
d
Obama Administration Policy
Three big reviews. . .
 Launches strategic review upon taking office, but sends an
additional 17,000 troops in February 2009 before review is
complete, based on earlier request of ISAF Commander
 March 2009 gives results of policy review and announces
“comprehensive new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan”
 Narrows the mission to “core goal” . . .
“to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and
Afghanistan and to prevent their return to either country in the
future”

6. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 Increases focus on Pakistan (AfPak) and launches trilateral
commission b/w U.S., Afghanistan and Pakistan (March 2009 speech)
 Places greater focus on training and increasing size of Afghan
security forces so they can take the lead, including partnering
U.S. with Afghan units (March 2009 speech)
 Increases civilian effort for economic development and good
governance: a “capable and accountable Afghan government”
(March 2009 speech)

7. U.S. foreign assistance
Obama Administration Policy
 May 2009 ISAF Assessment
 GEN Mc Chrystal “the overalls situation is deteriorating” and says
if turnaround doesn’t occur in next 12 months the U.S. “risks and
outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible”
 Prioritizes governance efforts equally with security efforts
 Advocates raising Afghan National Security Force to 400,000
 Geographic prioritization of effort
 Need to change ISAF operational culture with greater unity of
effort and interaction with the population

8. U.S. foreign assistanceObama Administration Policy
 ISAF Assessment leads to another review . . .
 Fall 2009 strategy review considers ISAF Assessment and
classified set of “resource recommendations.”
 Debate over: narrow focus on counter-terrorism, “a counter-
terrorism plus” approach, and more multi-faceted campaign
described in ISAF Assessment
 Obama’s December 2009 West Point Speech
 Confirms core U.S. goal & focus on security
 Announces deployment of 30,000 more troops
 Launches civilian “surge”
 Sets deadline: condition-based withdraw of U.S. forces
beginning July 2011

9. U.S. foreign assistanceObama Administration Policy
 New policy change . . .
Afghanistan-Pakistan Annual Review, December 2010
 President Obama says there is “significant progress” toward the
core goal, but that “the gains we’ve made are still fragile and
reversible”
 Contains two new elements and a clarification . . .
1. States the transition to full Afghan lead will conclude by 2014
2. Stresses U.S. & Afghanistan will form a “new strategy
partnership,” but did not propose what that would look it like
What does he make clear?

10. U.S. foreign assistanceObama Administration Policy
 We are not nation-building . . .
“And that’s why, from the start, I’ve been very clear
about our core goal. It’s not to defeat every last threat to
the security of Afghanistan, because, ultimately, it is Afghans
who must secure their country. And it’s not nation-
building, because it is Afghans who must build
their nation. Rather, we are focused on
disrupting, dismantling and defeating al Qaeda
in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and preventing its
capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.”

11. U.S. foreign assistanceObama Administration Policy
 Policy speech June 2011 . . .
 Reaffirms commitment to 2014 and “core goal”
 Says U.S. is continuing to make progress; outlines plan to
withdraw 33,000 more troops
 Announces U.S. is holding preliminary peace talks with the
Taliban will work toward a political settlement b/w Afghan
government and all opposition groups, including Taliban
Also . . .
10 year anniversary of start of war (October 7, 2001)
Bonn Conference fails to achieve consensus on transition (Dec)
Taliban opens office in Qatar, cancels talks in March 2012

12. Obama Administration Policy
• The US president said that he would strongly
tackle the Al-Qaeda and Taliban leadership in
Pakistan during both the presidential campaigns.
• He authorized the secret military operation that
killed Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011. On the
one hand, it was an achievement for the on-going
War on Terror. But on the other, it has
disappointed Pakistan as the country has insisted
that the US share its intelligence, provide a strong
case for any other unilateral action it intends to
take, and that Islamabad is willing to cooperate.

13. Impact on South Asia
• the impact of the war on the South Asian
region has been particularly at three levels.
regional level,
at the level of bilateral relations among regional
states
at the domestic level.

14. 1. Regional Impact
1. Resurgence of South Asia as the region of
highest priority for America (as well as for the
whole world)
2. Impact on the regional stability
 Attacks of terrorists
 the Indian effort to manipulate the situation in its favor

15. 2. Impact on the bilateral relations of
the countries
Before WOT bilateral relations between India
and Pakistan remained as tense as ever
For example
The nuclear tests in May 1998
the kargil crisis in 1999

16. 2. Impact on the bilateral relations of
the countries
 After 9/11 the ice began to thaw
the friendship offer by Vajpayee on April 18, 2003
CBMs to reduce trust deficits
Resumption of road, rail and air links,
 exchange visits by the parliamentarians, media men,
and students,

17. 3. Effects on the domestic political
dynamics of the South Asian states
Pakistan had to take a U-turn on its Afghan
policy
Pakistan lost much influence it had in
Afghanistan
Pakistan banned many militant organisations

18. 3. Effects on the domestic political
dynamics of the South Asian states
The banned organizations re-surfaced under
new names.
 The frequency of terrorist activities
multiplied.
There was a sharp increase in the suicide
attacks on the government officials and assets
The prevailing religious extremism and the
large chain of madrassas spread all over the
area welcomed the fugitives Mujahedeen with
open arms

19. 3. Effects on the domestic political
dynamics of the South Asian states
full-fledge military campaign to drive out the
Taliban scraps
The adverse situation generated by the war
has discouraged the foreign investors and
impeded the domestic economic activity due
to political uncertainty

20. Few Statistics
According to estimates, 98% of the deaths
resulting from drone strikes are civilian

21. Few Statistics

22. Data Points

23. Data Points

24. Final Thoughts
President Obama, December 1, 2009
“If I did not think that the security of the United States
and the safety of the American people were at stake in
Afghanistan, I would gladly order every single one of
our troops home tomorrow.”
"Our overarching goal remains the same: to disrupt,
dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten
America and our allies in the future."

25. Thank You
.