Solving the china puzzle


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Solving the china puzzle

  1. 1. Solving the Chinese Puzzle Sept 2010 M. Rajaram
  2. 2. Agenda Setting the Context - National Security & National Interests The China Threat – How Real is it? Indian Response – Captive to the Past or the Restraint of the Wise?
  3. 3. National Security & National Interests – Definitions & Dimensions
  4. 4. What is National Security? <ul><li>A multi-dimensional view and response towards protecting National Interests against threats, both internal and external </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic and evolving as a derivative of National Interests which in itself is an evolving derivative of National Strength </li></ul><ul><li>Underpins and guarantees the pursuit of National Objectives in a competing international arena </li></ul>
  5. 5. What is National Interest? <ul><li>Any issue that has the potential to directly impact the pursuit of National Goals can be classified as an area of National Interest </li></ul><ul><li>Has 5 major dimensions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geo - Political </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Socio-cultural </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Science & Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>National Interests therefore stem from the evolving National goals in each of these dimensions and is also a reflection of the relative National Strengths with regard to these dimensions </li></ul>
  6. 6. National Security Paradigm National Security Economic Geo Political Military Socio-Cultural National Goals National Interests National Strength Science & Technology Science & Technology Science & Technology Science & Technology
  7. 7. 1948 Situation Map
  8. 8. Caroe’s Seven Power Circles
  9. 9. The China Threat – How Real Is It?
  10. 10. So Is China a Threat? <ul><li>The best way to judge is not to listen to what China says officially and unofficially, but more importantly to observe what they do. </li></ul><ul><li>Let us see what China has been doing in the recent past on all the five major dimensions of National Security </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Geo-Political </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Military </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Socio-Cultural </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Science & Technology </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Geo-Political <ul><li>The Indo-US Nuclear Deal showcased China’s intent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China objected to the breaking of the Nuclear Apartheid practiced against India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It also exposed the limits of its influence </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pakistan – China’s “Israel” against India </li></ul><ul><li>Wrested Nepal out of India’s sphere of influence and established a pro China Maoist base </li></ul><ul><li>Blocks India’s ascension to the UN Security Council as a Permanent Member </li></ul><ul><li>Keeps India out important regional forums such as APAC </li></ul><ul><li>Provides support to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>various insurgency groups in the North East </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maoist Groups in India & Nepal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Muscled in into Sri Lanka by helping the SL Govt in the war with LTTE </li></ul><ul><li>Successfully thwarted multi-national response in the South China Sea by stopping the four power coordination between Japan, US, India and Australia </li></ul><ul><li>Taken over the appointment of Panchen Lama </li></ul>
  12. 12. Geo Political <ul><li>China denied visa to Lt. Gen. B.S. Jaswal, General Officer Commanding Chief, Northern Area Command of the Indian Army </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese hackers have unleashed a cyber warfare against India, especially intruding into sensitive government agencies, departments and units. </li></ul><ul><li>China has been issuing stapled visas to those applying for visits to PRC from J&K. </li></ul><ul><li>Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, Chairman of the Hurriyat Conference, has been found to have contacts with Chinese diplomats. In March 2010, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq met with Chinese Foreign Affairs Director Ying Gang in Geneva at the 13th session of the UN Human Rights Council. </li></ul><ul><li>China objections to the visit of the Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh and HH Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh Tawang. It also objected to the meeting between the Dalai Lama and the Indian PM. </li></ul><ul><li>China has also started wavering on its earlier acceptance of Sikkim as a part of India. </li></ul>
  13. 13. The Disputed Border <ul><li>The Western Disputed Area </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aksai Chin </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ceded portion of PoK by Pakisan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The Eastern Disputed Area </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Arunachal Pradesh </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sikkim </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Military <ul><li>Pentagon reports -, China has moved </li></ul><ul><ul><li>solid-fuelled CSS-5 missiles into Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>developed several air fields near the border </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>developed contingency plans to shift airborne forces to the region. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China has deployed its most advanced Nuclear missiles in Chengdu and Kungmin regions – the principal PLA bases ranged against India other than Tibet </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese PLA soldiers, estimated at about 11000, have occupied portions of Balwaristan </li></ul><ul><li>The Indian Army confirmed that a battalion of PLA soldiers were deployed at the Khunjerab Pass that straddles the border between Tibet and Balawaristan </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite pictures show several tunnels, estimated to be 22 in number, at various places along with convoys of trucks (likely to be PLA) in Balwaristan . Reports suggesting that the Chinese are mining high-grade Uranium here. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Aggressive patrolling all along the Indo Chinese border with creeping encroachments </li></ul><ul><li>China has unveiled Anti Satellite Weapons, Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles, Integrated Theater Command based rapid deployment capabilities in Tibet and North East Theatres </li></ul><ul><li>PLAN has a plan for 1000 ship Navy and has announced South China Sea as their area and vowed to be present in the IOR </li></ul><ul><li>China continues Nuclear Proliferation to Pakistan – Two Nuclear plants announced </li></ul>
  15. 15. Military <ul><li>Today China Can: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In real time within 48 hours move 1 Mechanised Division of troops into Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Move 10 Divisions permanently into Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Airlift 3000 troops in one airlift </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Airlift 15000 troops with equipment in single operation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>China has integrated Nuclear Weapons into Operational Theatre Commands </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Means Operational commanders can take the decision to launch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Today China has improved infrastructure to support 50000 toops in Tibet </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstrated ability to move them over 1600 Km across Rail and Road </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstrated ability to exercise Sukhoi and J1 over Tibet </li></ul><ul><li>PLAN has launched a massive programme of expansion to develop </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Blue Water Capability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interdiction Capability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amphibious Capability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Anti Ship Capability enhanced with Ballistic Missile Roll outs </li></ul><ul><li>Steady Progress in RMA technologies </li></ul>
  16. 17. Economic <ul><li>Pakistan has awarded Chinese companies contract to build the controversial Diamar-Basha dam across the Indus in Balawaristan after the ADB and other financial institutions refused to fund </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese PLA controlled economic entities have been allowed to bid and participate in Telecom infrastructure commissioning and services – Huawei </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese have been illegally importing Iron Ore and other minerals without and exporting value added finished goods to India </li></ul><ul><li>Nepal is used as a base for economic sabotage through illegal money laundering, counterfeit currency injection in concert with Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>China has successfully wrested oil fields from Africa to Venuzela, Burma and Kazakhstan – where ONGC Videsh and Indian companies had invested in exploration </li></ul><ul><li>China has been dumping goods in India across the board and it has gone relatively unchecked </li></ul><ul><li>China is going ahead with diverting waters from Brahmaputra. It has also built a dam on the Satluj. </li></ul><ul><li>China objected to loans of USD 2.9 Billion from ADB meant for projects in Arunachal Pradesh. </li></ul>
  17. 18. Oil Pipelines from Central Asia
  18. 19. The Battle for Energy
  19. 20. Socio-Cultural <ul><li>China has successfully built a strong lobby for itself in India </li></ul><ul><li>Built party to party links with major Indian political parties – INC, CPIM </li></ul><ul><li>Built up a strong lobby in Media – both print and electronic </li></ul><ul><li>Managed to maintain Psychological edge gained through 1962 in public psyche </li></ul><ul><li>Major programme of PR launched in India to improve linkages to Indian industry to build a pro-china lobby </li></ul><ul><li>Promotes and supports a plethora of NGOs and activist groups that work towards limiting Indian ambitions in terms of Nuclear Weapons, developing Nuclear power </li></ul><ul><li>A strong lobby for China in CPM as well as in Academic circles </li></ul><ul><li>Has been using a mixture of shock and awe Psychological Warfare tehcniques to build a sense of awe about China </li></ul>
  20. 21. Science & Technology <ul><li>China has made efforts to build linkages to tap into Software industry and build the capacity </li></ul><ul><li>China has worked with other countries to deny India access to technology in the field of nuclear power, dual use technologies </li></ul><ul><li>China has proliferated its capabilities to countries like Pakistan to pose threats to India </li></ul><ul><li>China has demonstrated India specific technologies such as Anti Satellite weapons </li></ul><ul><li>China has invested in all key technology areas in India such as telecom, life sciences and infrastructure </li></ul>
  21. 22. Indian Response – Captive to the Past or the Restraint of the Wise?
  22. 23. The “Other” Clash of Civilizations <ul><li>India and China are destined to Compete and Cooperate </li></ul><ul><li>Chinese “string of pearls” – India’s encirclement and Indian response </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gwadar Port </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Arming of their “Israel” with nuclear arms </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Militarization of Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Listening posts through in Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh and Myanmar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assisting Sri Lanka </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Competing in Africa and Central Asia for dominance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Militarization of Space – threat to Indian space assets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>India’s Tibet options – Post Dalai Lama era is a threat or opportunity? </li></ul><ul><li>From diffidence to realization – India grapples the cold reality of Chinese intent </li></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s position in the Nuclear deal – showcased her intent and limits of power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese creeping encroachment – Arunachal – India’s response – blow hot and blow cold </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s Tibet Rail – India’s belated but scrambling response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s faultlines – Xinjiang, Taiwan, Indochina and Spartlys – India’s naval response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>China’s jugular – Straits of Malaca </li></ul></ul><ul><li>US-China-India – Triangular poker game </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recurring US penchant for promoting China as a major power in Asia and relegating India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US track record of wink and nod for Chinese proliferation of nukes against India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>US concern to balance China and the role of India in it – Offer of ABM defense to India </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Chinese fear of Indian rise and implications for Tibet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian rise can be an alluring alternative for Chinese to a communist totalatarian regime </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indian rise can be a counter balancing force for Asian nations to Chinese domination </li></ul></ul>
  23. 24. Geo-Political <ul><li>Nuanced response to US-India-China dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Seized the opportunity to break nuclear apartheid and expose China’s limitations </li></ul><ul><li>“ Look East” policy started by PVNR Administration – strengthened during NDA </li></ul><ul><li>Re-establishing links with Myanmar </li></ul><ul><li>Keeping Tibet option alive – albeit barely </li></ul><ul><li>Active involvement in strengthening ties with ASEAN nations </li></ul><ul><li>Strengthening India’s role as the enforcer of stability in concert with the US in the IOR SLOC </li></ul><ul><li>Move into SCO, ASEAN and strengthening of BRSA, G20 and BRIC forum </li></ul><ul><li>Re-engaging Africa – Linkages through the diaspora </li></ul>
  24. 25. Military <ul><li>Sanctioning of 4 new Mountain Divisions </li></ul><ul><li>Sanctioning of commissioning new Airfields across North East </li></ul><ul><li>Heavy lift capability enhanced </li></ul><ul><li>Introduction of Cruise Missiles into the Navy - BrahMos </li></ul><ul><li>Introducing the ABM system </li></ul><ul><li>The game changer called “Arihant” </li></ul><ul><li>Agni series programme to reach “Counter Value” & “Counter Force” targets </li></ul><ul><li>The Naval Partnership with ASEAN and Asian Powers along with the US </li></ul><ul><li>The Tri-Command set up in FortrAN </li></ul><ul><li>The Air Force sets up Aerospace Command </li></ul><ul><li>The “Sumdrong Chu” incident in the 80s </li></ul><ul><li>Presence in Tajikistan </li></ul>
  25. 26. China’s Jugular Vein
  26. 27. The Counter String of Pearls
  27. 28. Economic <ul><li>Africa Fund to create an economic linkage with African states </li></ul><ul><li>Counter measures to counter Chinese dumping efforts </li></ul><ul><li>Steps to balance quality of bi-lateral trade </li></ul><ul><li>Promoting greater investments into Chinese economy to ensure mutual dependency </li></ul><ul><li>Compete with China on international scene for securing energy sources </li></ul>
  28. 29. Socio-Cultural <ul><li>Very little done from the Indian side to improve leverage in China </li></ul><ul><li>No access to Chinese people to represent India </li></ul><ul><li>Very Low mind share about India amongst Chinese </li></ul>
  29. 30. Science & Technology <ul><li>India catching up with China on key technology areas </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Space </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy especially nuclear and alternative energy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Defence Technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>No match to China in terms of investment into R&D, Scientific institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Quality of Scientific research in India is better in certain areas than China – China is quicker in adaption and adoption of western technology </li></ul>
  30. 31. Thank You