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We would like to acknowledge the Gadigal
people of the Eora Nation, the traditional
custodians of this land we gather on today.
GARY JOHNSTON
Inmemoryof...
FOUNDER OF JAYCAR
1949-2021
16TH
17TH
18TH
19TH
20TH
21ST
22ND
23RD
O
ffi
cials warn 150,000 Australians could die under worse-case scenarios.
Australians overseas urged to come home.
Australians advised not to travel overseas - Anzac Day ceremonies cancelled and Universities
told to reduce number of students in lectures.
Reserve Bank and government inject $105B into the banking sector. Qantas grounds its
international
fl
eet.
International borders closes. Banks announce they will defer loan repayments. Federal budget
delayed until Oct.
National outrage as thousands defy social distancing rules at Bondi Beach.
$66.1b in stimulus unleashed including $550-a-fortnight coronavirus supplement. National cabinet
agrees that night to close pubs, gyms, cinemas, churches; restrict cafes, restaurants and takeaway.
Lockdown starts with long lines forming outside Centrelink o
ffi
ces. Total cases in AUS hit 364.
THE COUNTDOWN TO LOCKDOWN, A WHOLE YEAR AGO…
MARCH
2020
“THERE ARE
DECADES WHERE
NOTHING HAPPENS;
AND THERE ARE
WEEKS WHERE
DECADES HAPPEN.”
Vladimir Lenin
On average it takes 66 days*
to build a habit. The range
being 18 to 254 days.


We’re at day 370 and moved
out of level 3 restrictions on day
58. With the expectation life
won’t return to normal until
January ’22 or day 646.


Source: University College London in European Journal of Social Psychology
Wecana
ss
umeamajority
ofbehaviourwi
ll
change...
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL
DIGITAL COMMERCE
SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL
DIGITAL COMMERCE
#1 DIGITAL COMMERCE
THE RISE OF DIGITAL COMMERCE
U.S ECOMMERCE PENETRATION


(% OF RETAIL SALES 2009-2020)
*SOURCE: BANK OF AMERICA U.S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL
DIGITAL COMMERCE
#2 RE-COMMERCE
*SOURCE: GLOBALDATA COVID SURVEY, GOOGLE, ACCENTURE
THE COVID PANDEMIC HAS MATCHED CONSUMER
BEHAVIOUR TO ATTITUDE
88%
adopted a new thrift hobby
during covid (kitchen garden,
mending clothes, reselling
clothes,
4,550%
increase in Google searches for
‘How to live a sustainable
lifestyle’
64%
of global survey respondents are
more interested in reducing food
waste
33%
the number of full time workers
pre-covid that want to return to
the office
GARTNER PREDICTS THAT BY 2029, THE CIRCULAR
ECONOMY WILL BE THE ONLY ECONOMY,
REPLACING WASTEFUL LINEAR ECONOMIES.
*SOURCE: GARTNER PRESS RELEASE
*SOURCE: GLOBALDATA MARKET SIZING VIA THRED UP
RESALE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE FAST FASHION BY 2029
0
13
25
38
50
2009 2019 2029
US$43B
US$36B
US$22B
US$36B
US$21B
US$10B
US$44B
US$7B
US$0B
Resale
Traditional Second hand
Fast Fashion
GLOBAL RESALE, SECONDHAND + FAST FASHION MARKETS
SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL
DIGITAL COMMERCE
#3 SHOPPING LOCAL
SUPPORTING LOCAL BUSINESSES WAS THE THIRD HIGHEST
REASONS FOR CONSUMERS SHOPPING AT A NEW RETAILER/
STORE/WEBSITE IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS
REASONS FOR SHOPPING AT A NEW RETAILER/STORE/
WEBSITE IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS
*SOURCE: MCKINSEY & CO COVID-19 CONSUMER PULSE SURVEY
Better prices/promotions
Better value
Supporting local businesses
Better shipping/delivery costs
Offers good delivery/pick up options
Better quality
More easily accesible from my home
Less crowds/shorter lines
I can get all the items I need in one place
Offers natural/organic options
Cleaner/has better hygiene mesaures
The company treats their employees well
0% 11% 23% 34% 45%
SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL
DIGITAL COMMERCE
#4 SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING
*SOURCE: STATISTA
WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES WITH RESTRICTIONS ON WHAT WE CAN DO SOCIALLY AND
MANY PEOPLE ARE TURNING TO ENTERTAINMENT FOR RELAXATION, CONNECTION,
COMFORT AND STIMULATION, JUST LOOK AT NETFLIX'S GROWTH IN SUBSCRIBERS…
Number
of
Netflix
Paid
Subscribers
(M)
55
110
165
220
2
0
1
3
Q
1
2
0
1
3
Q
2
2
0
1
3
Q
3
2
0
1
3
Q
4
2
0
1
4
Q
1
2
0
1
4
Q
2
2
0
1
4
Q
3
2
0
1
4
Q
4
2
0
1
5
Q
1
2
0
1
5
Q
2
2
0
1
5
Q
3
2
0
1
5
Q
4
2
0
1
6
Q
1
2
0
1
6
Q
2
2
0
1
6
Q
3
2
0
1
6
Q
4
2
0
1
7
Q
1
2
0
1
7
Q
2
2
0
1
7
Q
3
2
0
1
7
Q
4
2
0
1
8
Q
1
2
0
1
8
Q
2
2
0
1
8
Q
3
2
0
1
8
Q
4
2
0
1
9
Q
1
2
0
1
9
Q
2
2
0
1
9
Q
3
2
0
1
9
Q
4
2
0
2
0
Q
1
2
0
2
0
Q
2
2
0
2
0
Q
3
2
0
2
0
Q
4
NUMBER OF NETFLIX PAID SUBSCRIBERS WORLDWIDE
GEN Z


(1995 & After)
Millennial


(1980-1994)
Gen X


(1965-1979)
Interested in content
provided by these services
47% 44% 39%
More affordable than cable or
satellite television
42% 41% 38%
More convenient to use these
services (mobile, TV, etc.)
32% 29% 28%
TOP REASON(S) FOR USING MORE STREAMING SERVICES IN 2021 BY GENERATION
SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL
DIGITAL COMMERCE
#5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE
WORKING FROM HOME BEFORE AND DURING THE HEIGHT OF COVID-19
THE WORKPLACE WAS DISRUPTED BY COVID, WITH THE GOVERNMENT
ENCOURAGING EMPLOYEES TO WORK FROM HOME (WHERE PRACTICAL)
STUDIES SHOW AUSTRALIANS
WANT TO CONTINUE TO
WORK FROM HOME EVEN
AFTER THE PANDEMIC.


ON AVERAGE, EMPLOYEES
WANT TO WORK IN THE
OFFICE 3 DAYS A WEEK AND
WORK FROM HOME THE
OTHER 2 DAYS.
*SOURCE: OPINION SURVEY - UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY
23
"FOR EVERY REACTION THERE IS AN EQUAL
AND OPPOSITE REACTION.”
- ISAAC NEWTON
INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
CHINESE


SUPPLY
IMMIGRATION/
POPULATION GROWTH
HIGHER
EDUCATION
INCOME GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
INTERNATIONAL
*SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS
In 2020, more people left
Australia than arrived - this is
the
fi
rst migration out
fl
ow since
the end of World War II.
Behavioural responses to the
pandemic will keep immigration
well below preceding levels for
at least several years.
INTERNATIONAL
22.6%
26.7%
46.3%
40.5%
34.3%
*SOURCE: UNIVERSITY RANKINGS - OFFICIAL # INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLMENT
Just two years ago, prior to the
pandemic, the university sector
pulled in about $37 billion in
revenue.




According to the latest data
from the peak body, that
dropped by $1.8 billion last year
and at least 17,300 jobs were
lost; a mixture of casual, part
time and permanent positions.
PRE-COVID NUMBER OF OVERSEAS
STUDENTS AS % OF TOTAL STUDENTS
*SOURCE:ABC NEWS
INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
CHINESE


SUPPLY
IMMIGRATION/
POPULATION GROWTH
HIGHER
EDUCATION
INCOME GROWTH
#5 CHINESE SUPPLY
94% OF FORTUNE 1000 COMPANIES HAVE EXPERIENCED
CORONAVIRUS SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS
THE PANDEMIC HIGHLIGHTED JUST HOW MANY GLOBAL
SUPPLY CHAINS RELY ON OFFSHORE MANUFACTURING
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#5 WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#4 SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
#5 WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#4 SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
#5 WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
#3 SHOPPING
LOCAL
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#4 SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
#5 WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
#2 RE-
COMMERCE
#3 SHOPPING
LOCAL
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
#5 CHINESE


SUPPLY
#2 IMMIGRATION/


POP GROWTH
#3 HIGHER
EDUCATION
#1 INCOME
GROWTH
TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
#4 SUBSCRIPTION
STREAMING
#5 WORK LIFE
REBALANCE
#2 RE-
COMMERCE
#3 SHOPPING
LOCAL
#1 DIGITAL
COMMERCE
TOP 5 ACCELERATORS
#4 INTERNATIONAL


TRAVEL
50
THERE’S NO FUTURE


IN TOEING THE LINE
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X
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1
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
The Future of Retail:
A Look at 2021 and Beyond
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
2
Introduction to Coresight Research
The New Consumer
Behaviors that Will Stick
Behaviors that Will Revert
Retail in 2021
Longer-Term Opportunities
Today’s Discussion
X
3
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
3
Coresight Research is a research and advisory firm at the intersection of retail
and technology. We provide leading retailers, brands, technology companies
and investors with insights, data and advice to anticipate change and profit
from the disruption reshaping the global retail landscape.
X
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
4
The Coresight Research Advantage
New York
London
Mangalore
Hong Kong
Shanghai
San Francisco
Nigeria
Tel Aviv
Deep retail expertise
• Founded by Deborah Weinswig, top ranked
retail analyst and influencer
• Senior team with experience as retail
executives, advisors and analysts
Global reach
• Offices in New York, San Francisco,
London, Tel Aviv, Hong Kong, Shanghai,
Mangalore, India and Nigeria
Industry leadership
• Extensive network of retail executives and
influencers
• Spearheading new retail concepts such as
the 10.10 Shopping Festival
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
5
Introduction to Coresight Research
The New Consumer
Behaviors that Will Stick
Behaviors that Will Revert
Retail in 2021
Longer-Term Opportunities
Today’s Discussion
X
6
|
Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
• We expect US e-commerce sales to
reach over $770 billion in 2021
• “Shop more online, less in stores” is
most likely to be retained by
consumers in the long run
• Consumers are not just switching
spending online; they are also
diversifying the online channels and
modes of interaction where they
spend time and money
Behaviors that Consumers Plan To Retain
Source: Coresight Research
THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL STICK
Consumers Spending More Time and Money on Digital Channels
CORESIGHT
RESEARCH
PROPRIETARY
DATA
X
7
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
• Environmentally conscious: 29% of US
consumers report that the pandemic has
made sustainability more of a factor to them
when shopping
• Health and wellness focused: Consumers
increasingly value health and wellness, and
are taking the management of these areas
into their own hands
• Socially conscious: Consumers take the
identities of their brands very seriously,
seeking brands that reaffirm their values;
brands that do not articulate a clear brand
identity get lost in the noise
Whether the Crisis Has Made Sustainability More or Less of a
Factor When Shopping for US Consumers (% of Respondents)
Source: Coresight Research
THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL STICK
The Proliferation of Conscious and Healthy Consumers
CORESIGHT
RESEARCH
PROPRIETARY
DATA
X
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
• As of late February 2021, 36% of US
households had at least one adult substitute
some or all of their typical in-person work
for telework because of the coronavirus
pandemic
• We estimate that US livestreaming
e-commerce will be a $6 billion+ market in
2021, as consumers look for more
stimulated online experiences to replicate
the joy of in-store shopping
• Consumers are not just switching
spending online; they are also diversifying
the online channels and modes of
interaction where they spend time and
money online
14.9%
19.0%
34.7%
61.4%
Less than high school
High school or GED
Some college/associate's degree
Bachelor's degree or higher
Proportion of Households with At Least One Member Substituting
Telework for In-Person Work, by Education Level of Worker (%)
Source: US Census Bureau
THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL STICK
New Home-Based Modes of Work, Shopping and Entertainment
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
9
Introduction to Coresight Research
The New Consumer
Behaviors that Will Stick
Behaviors that Will Revert
Retail in 2021
Longer-Term Opportunities
Today’s Discussion
X
10
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
• When consumers are able and
confident to travel, enter entertainment
venues and restaurants, they are likely
to want to resume their prior behaviors
• Once consumers view the pandemic as
no longer a threat, the spending ratio of
goods to services will likely revert to the
prior trend
• According to Coresight Research’s US
Consumer Tracker, nearly half of US
consumers currently expect to behave
differently or retain a changed way of
living in the long term, although this
percentage has been eroding over time
(from 67% in June 2020 to 45% in
February 2021)
0.53
0.51
0.48
0.48
0.49 0.49 0.49
0.49
0.47
0.46 0.46 0.45
0.45
0.49
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.52
0.54
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Declining Trend
Ratio of US Consumer Spending on Goods vs. Services
Source: BEA/Coresight Research
Year
Goods
to
Service
Spending
Ratio THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL REVERT
Spending Shifts Back to Services from Goods
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
• In 2020, essential retailers saw solid
growth, while many discretionary
sectors struggled even as overall
retail sales increased by 6.8%
• Once consumer behaviors revert to
normal patterns, pent-up demand will
likely boost spending in out-of-favor
sectors such as clothing and
electronics
(26.4)%
(14.3)%
(5.3)%
2.5%
5.5%
13.9%
11.5%
6.6%
1.7%
Clothing and Accessories
Electronics
Furniture
General Merchandise
Sporting Goods
Building Supplies
Food and Beverage
Warehouse Clubs
Health & Personal Care
Non-Essential
Essential
Source: US Census Bureau
Retail Sales Change in 2020, by Selected Category (%)
THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL REVERT
Spending Shift from Essential to Non-Essential Retailers
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
• Consumers are slowly returning to
cities: Over the second half of winter,
Apple data suggest a surge in foot
traffic on streets in New York City
• In January 2021, rent in New York
City (as measured by the Zillow
Observed Index) rose for the first time
since before the pandemic
Source: Apple/Zillow
Daily Requests for Walking Directions in New York City
(Seven-Day Average; January 13, 2020 = 100)
THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL REVERT
Suburbanization to Re-Urbanization
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Feb 1 Feb 8 Feb 15 Feb 22 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
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Introduction to Coresight Research
The New Consumer
Behaviors that Will Stick
Behaviors that Will Revert
Retail in 2021
Longer-Term Opportunities
Today’s Discussion
X
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Source: Company reports/Coresight Research
Mar. 5
Announces plans
to spin off Saks
online
Mar. 3
Announces plans
to close at least
20% of stores
Feb. 25
Exits bankruptcy
one day after filing
Mar. 4
Activists seek to
take over board
Mar. 3
Announces it
will be acquired
by PE firm Apollo
Feb. 18
Announces plans
to exit US market
Mar. 3
Announces plan to
invest $350B in US
manufacturing
Feb. 28
Makes two key
fintech hires
Feb. 2
Announces plans
to create a SPAC
RETAIL IN 2021
How We Started 2021: Recent Key Retail Events
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Source: The Brookings Institute/MyMove/S&P
300,000
Projected fewer
births in the US
in 2021
>10%
Year-over-year
rise in home
prices
200,000
Residents lost
by New York,
Los Angeles,
Chicago and
San Francisco
in 2020
RETAIL IN 2021
2021 US Macro Overview
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
4,689 3,280
2,409 4,000
(9,832)
(8,745)
(2,261)
(10,000)
2019 2020 2021YTD 2021E
Openings Closures
Top 2021 YTD Announced US
Store Openings by Sq. Ft.
1. Dollar General
2. Tractor Supply
3. Aldi
4. Costco
5. Five Below
CORESIGHT
RESEARCH
PROPRIETARY
DATA
Source: Coresight Research
Top 2021 YTD Announced US
Store Closures by Sq. Ft.
1. Macy’s
2. Fry’s Electronics
3. Bed, Bath & Beyond
4. JCPenney
5. 7-Eleven
RETAIL IN 2021
Heavy Store Closures Continuing Throughout 2021
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Fulfillment Hub
BOPIS and curbside options
Micro-fulfillment centers
New store designs
Empowered Associates
Automated stocking
Analytics-enhanced
inventory management
Data Driven
Leveraging consumer data to
customize experiences
Integrating data across the supply chain
New Technology
AR and VR technology
Contactless payments
Dynamic displays and promotions
THE REIMAGINED
STORE
RETAIL IN 2021
Reimagining the Store
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Forward
and Reverse
Logistics
Online and
Digitally Native
Brands
CBD Specialty
Stores
Healthcare
Tenants
Grocery
Tenants
Mall Tenant-Mix
Diversification
RETAIL IN 2021
Repurposing of Mall Real Estate
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
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Introduction to Coresight Research
The New Consumer
Behaviors that Will Stick
Behaviors that Will Revert
Retail in 2021
Longer-Term Opportunities
Today’s Discussion
X
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Proprietary & Confidential
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
1
2
3
4
5
The Convergence of Retail and Healthcare
Explosion of Digital Consumer Health Management
New Ways To Shop
Technology-Turbocharged Retail Is Coming
Fintech Is Sidelining Traditional Financial Institutions
6
Local Manufacturing and Supply Chain Modernization
RETAIL IN 2021
Six Key Future Retail Trends
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
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LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
Convergence of Retail and Healthcare, Online and Offline
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
5.8
8.2
7.5
14.1
0.3 0.7 0.6
1.8
2017 2018 2019 2020
VC Funding
(USD Bil.)
Total Digital Health Digital Behavioral Health
Clinical Services Going Online
$140 million
$110 million $100 million
34%
Three-Year CAGR
82%
Three-Year CAGR
Mindfulness Going Mainstream
Source: Rock Health
Multiple CBD
Acquisitions
Total Digital
Health
Digital Behavioral
Health
2
LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
Explosion of Digital Consumer Health Management,
Particularly in Behavioral Health
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Shopping Festivals Livestreaming Adaptive/Inclusive
3
LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
New Ways To Shop
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Resiliency Agility Diversity
4
LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
Local Manufacturing and Supply Chain Modernization
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Shopping in Virtual Reality Personalized Digital Signage Mobile Stores
5
LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
Technology-Turbocharged Retail Is Coming
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Disrupting Multiple Sectors Coming Acceptance
of Cryptocurrencies
Nigeria—A Leading
Global Fintech Center
6
LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES
Fintech Is Sidelining Traditional Financial Institutions
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Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com
Thank you!
Marie Driscoll, CFA
mariedriscoll@coresight.com
X
X
NRF2U
Key Takeaways for
NRF2021 Chapter One
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James Johnson
Director, Retail Industry Strategy
X
#1 Reversed role of
online & store
#2 Rise of the low touch
economy
#3 Shoppers expect
next level service
Overview of Key Takeaways
Key themes shared by retailers at NRF2021...
#4 Social responsibility
is no longer optional
X
Takeaway #1
Reversed role of online
& store
Physical retail is becoming the support system for ecommerce with click &
collect systems and returns (or dark stores for fulfillment)
The pandemic period reversed the
roles of online and physical stores,
where online became more
interactive and social, whereas
stores have become more
transactional and convenient by
design
Online interactions are the one and only channel to personalise and
spend time on “shopping”
X
Takeaway #2
Rise of the low touch
economy
The pandemic has given the rise to
a “low touch” economy where
consumers (and employees) would
avoid contact and large crowds and
instead prefer experiences to be
virtual and/or contactless
Cornershop in London featuring
virtual try-on technology
Amazon taking contactless payment
to the next level
Stores used as content creation hub to
generate more online sales
Robots to replace stocking and
shelf label changes
X
Takeaway #3
Shoppers expect
next level service
Consumer habits have been
dramatically shifted by the
pandemic and it is likely to be the
“new normal”, leaving old habits
behind and new expectations
ahead that is faster, easier, and
personalised
Smart City Concepts and 5G will reshape the way shoppers experience
last mile delivery and on-demand pop-up stores
Service is the new product for shoppers with subscriptions, and hyper-
personalisation is powered by AI
X
Takeaway #4
Social
responsibility is no
longer optional
Pandemic has shown the
vulnerability and impact of
capitalism, making it imperative
for businesses, especially retailers,
to secure the safety, health, and
livelihood of employees - and be
active on social and climate justice
Social justice and giving back to the local community was a key
cornerstone for Lowe’s during the pandemic
IKEA and H&M both promote sustainable products and practices to
environment conscious consumers
X
Key Take Outs from Industry Leaders
“There is a real behavior shift to digital. We don’t think this will go away”
Celeste Burgoyne, Global Innovation @ Lululemon
“The sooner we accept that physical retail will become the supporting act to virtual commerce, the sooner we
can press the hard reset button and grow”
Kate Ancketill, CEO @ GDR
“It should be so low effort to shop, so intuitive, that the customer cannot see how seamless the backend
system is”
Marvin Ellison, CEO @ Lowes
X
Key Take Outs from Industry Leaders
“Retail is still detail. The number of avenues to access retail has exploded - so the number of details has too”
Fokke de Jong, CEO @ Suitsupply
“Folks don’t internalise how tech is developing - in 5 years haptic phone screens where you can feel the texture
of materials will be the default”
Niraj Shah, Co-founder and CEO @ Wayfair
“Luxury is the comfort food of retail - It was their way to feel — it was something so much more and so much
deeper than a pair of shoes.”
Marc Metrick, CEO @ Saks
X
Change Impacting Every Facet of Retail
66%
of customers expect brands
to understand their unique
needs and expectations
79%
of consumers say the
experience a company
provides is as important as
its products
70%
expect consistent,
contextualised experiences
Shopping At
The Edge
Omnichannel
Experience
Personalised
Journeys
Connected
Service
16%
purchases will be made
on emerging commerce
platforms
Source: State of the Connected Customer 4th Edition, Salesforce Research, October 2020 (Consumer) & Salesforce Shopping Index
X
Fleur Brown
Australian Retailers
Association
Episode 4 for Retail and Consumer Goods
Trailblazers
April 1st, 2021 11:30 AEST
Register at salesforce.com/liveanz
Salesforce Live ANZ
The Great Acceleration in Retail and Consumer Goods
Katie McNamara Super
Retail Group
Tommy McCubbin
The Rebound
Angus McDonald
Barbeques Galore
Sam Bain
Mecca
Tommy combines his experience of tech and business in The Rebound, Channel 9s most popular
business show, airing to over 100,000 viewers weekly
● Coca-Cola Amatil discuss the revolution of their B2B commerce business
● Barbeques Galore take us on a sizzling virtual store tour
● Super Retail Group on intelligent customer and employee experiences
● MECCA on live commerce trends and transforming to virtual consultations
● ARA share retail trends & perspectives
● Salesforce Live Demonstrations
Sarah O’Toole
Coca Cola Amatil
X
the re:economy
Survival is the exception not the rule
CarlSagan
Last 6 decades
economic growth
has been the most
important global
policy goal
Infinite growth is
impossible in a


finite world
FACT
STATUS QUO
OUTCOME
Source: Prosperity without Growth, Carl Sagan
Continue as is at a growing
cost to humanity
Rethink the system that
demands infinite growth
NO CHANGE
TOTAL CHANGE
Last 6 decades
economic growth
has been the most
important global
policy goal
Infinite growth is
impossible in a


finite world
FACT
STATUS QUO
OUTCOME
Source: Prosperity without Growth, Carl Sagan
Continue as is at a growing
cost to humanity
Rethink the system that
demands infinite growth
NO CHANGE
TOTAL CHANGE
Reuse limited resource to
create growth
BUSINESS DRIVERS TRADITIONAL SOLUTION EMERGING SOLUTION
Decrease cost of doing
business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Grow consumer
base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
Reduce cost of product -
offshore manufacturing +
outsourcing of labour etc
Increase seasons + introduce
more categories
Introduce diffusion lines,
collabs, sub-brands
Create a CRM + loyalty
program
GROWTH FUELLED BY MORE
(CHEAPER) RESOURCES
BUSINESS DRIVERS TRADITIONAL SOLUTION EMERGING SOLUTION
Decrease cost of doing
business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
Reduce cost of product -
offshore manufacturing +
outsourcing of labour etc
Increase seasons + introduce
more categories
Introduce diffusion lines,
collabs, sub-brands
Create a CRM + loyalty
program
GROWTH FUELLED BY MORE
(CHEAPER) RESOURCES
exploit reuse
introduce rental
resell to new audiences
repair product
GROWTH FUELLED BY ‘INFINITE’
RECYCLING OF RESOURCE
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
we live in a world where courage is
in much shorter supply than genius
PeterThiel
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REFILL +
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
IKEA BUY BACK PROGRAM - 27 COUNTRIES - 100% CIRCULAR BY 2030
PATAGONIA WORN WEAR - REPAIR + RE-CRAFTED GOODS
LOOP BY TERRACYCLE - ULTA, WALGREENS, KROGER, LOBLAWS, CARREFOUR
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REFILL +
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
Inner West Tool
Library
INNER WEST TOOL LIBRARY - COMMUNITY RENTAL TO A ‘LIBRARY OF THINGS’
RALPH LAUREN’S RENTAL ‘THE LAUREN LOOK’
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REFILL +
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
0
13
25
38
50
2009 2019 2029
US$43B
US$36B
US$22B
US$36B
US$21B
US$10B
US$44B
US$7B
US$0B
Resale
Traditional Second hand
Fast Fashion
Source: GlobalData Market Sizing via Thred Up
resale is expected to replace fast fashion by ‘29
70% owned by H&M


Strategic Partnership


Based in Sweden and
growing across Europe
5% owned by Kering
(Gucci etc) Raised
US$454.6M


Valuation >$1B (Unicorn)
IPO on March 25th
(tomorrow)


Valuation at IPO US$1.1B


‘Clean Out Kit’
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
House of Materialisation
HOUSE OF MATERIALISATION - NFPs, RETAILERS, RESEARCH INSTITUTE
RE


economy
REUSE RENTAL
RESELL
REPAIR
Decrease cost of
doing business
Increase frequency
of occasion
Broaden
consumer base
Create customer
loyalty (retention)
GROWTH FUELLED BY
‘INFINITE’ RECYCLING
OF RESOURCE
GROWTH FUELLED BY
MORE (CHEAPER)
RESOURCES
FROM TO
Thank you
Level 4, 1a Rialto Lane, Manly NSW 2095 retailoasis.com
02 9976 6222
X
X

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Retail's 7th Annual BIG Breakfast for 2021

  • 1. X
  • 2. X
  • 3. We would like to acknowledge the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, the traditional custodians of this land we gather on today.
  • 5. 16TH 17TH 18TH 19TH 20TH 21ST 22ND 23RD O ffi cials warn 150,000 Australians could die under worse-case scenarios. Australians overseas urged to come home. Australians advised not to travel overseas - Anzac Day ceremonies cancelled and Universities told to reduce number of students in lectures. Reserve Bank and government inject $105B into the banking sector. Qantas grounds its international fl eet. International borders closes. Banks announce they will defer loan repayments. Federal budget delayed until Oct. National outrage as thousands defy social distancing rules at Bondi Beach. $66.1b in stimulus unleashed including $550-a-fortnight coronavirus supplement. National cabinet agrees that night to close pubs, gyms, cinemas, churches; restrict cafes, restaurants and takeaway. Lockdown starts with long lines forming outside Centrelink o ffi ces. Total cases in AUS hit 364. THE COUNTDOWN TO LOCKDOWN, A WHOLE YEAR AGO… MARCH 2020
  • 6. “THERE ARE DECADES WHERE NOTHING HAPPENS; AND THERE ARE WEEKS WHERE DECADES HAPPEN.” Vladimir Lenin
  • 7. On average it takes 66 days* to build a habit. The range being 18 to 254 days. We’re at day 370 and moved out of level 3 restrictions on day 58. With the expectation life won’t return to normal until January ’22 or day 646. Source: University College London in European Journal of Social Psychology Wecana ss umeamajority ofbehaviourwi ll change...
  • 8. TOP 5 ACCELERATORS SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING WORK LIFE REBALANCE RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL DIGITAL COMMERCE
  • 9. SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING WORK LIFE REBALANCE RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL DIGITAL COMMERCE #1 DIGITAL COMMERCE
  • 10. THE RISE OF DIGITAL COMMERCE U.S ECOMMERCE PENETRATION 
 (% OF RETAIL SALES 2009-2020) *SOURCE: BANK OF AMERICA U.S DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
  • 12. *SOURCE: GLOBALDATA COVID SURVEY, GOOGLE, ACCENTURE THE COVID PANDEMIC HAS MATCHED CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR TO ATTITUDE 88% adopted a new thrift hobby during covid (kitchen garden, mending clothes, reselling clothes, 4,550% increase in Google searches for ‘How to live a sustainable lifestyle’ 64% of global survey respondents are more interested in reducing food waste 33% the number of full time workers pre-covid that want to return to the office
  • 13. GARTNER PREDICTS THAT BY 2029, THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY WILL BE THE ONLY ECONOMY, REPLACING WASTEFUL LINEAR ECONOMIES. *SOURCE: GARTNER PRESS RELEASE
  • 14. *SOURCE: GLOBALDATA MARKET SIZING VIA THRED UP RESALE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE FAST FASHION BY 2029 0 13 25 38 50 2009 2019 2029 US$43B US$36B US$22B US$36B US$21B US$10B US$44B US$7B US$0B Resale Traditional Second hand Fast Fashion GLOBAL RESALE, SECONDHAND + FAST FASHION MARKETS
  • 15. SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING WORK LIFE REBALANCE RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL DIGITAL COMMERCE #3 SHOPPING LOCAL
  • 16. SUPPORTING LOCAL BUSINESSES WAS THE THIRD HIGHEST REASONS FOR CONSUMERS SHOPPING AT A NEW RETAILER/ STORE/WEBSITE IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS REASONS FOR SHOPPING AT A NEW RETAILER/STORE/ WEBSITE IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS *SOURCE: MCKINSEY & CO COVID-19 CONSUMER PULSE SURVEY Better prices/promotions Better value Supporting local businesses Better shipping/delivery costs Offers good delivery/pick up options Better quality More easily accesible from my home Less crowds/shorter lines I can get all the items I need in one place Offers natural/organic options Cleaner/has better hygiene mesaures The company treats their employees well 0% 11% 23% 34% 45%
  • 17. SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING WORK LIFE REBALANCE RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL DIGITAL COMMERCE #4 SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING
  • 18. *SOURCE: STATISTA WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES WITH RESTRICTIONS ON WHAT WE CAN DO SOCIALLY AND MANY PEOPLE ARE TURNING TO ENTERTAINMENT FOR RELAXATION, CONNECTION, COMFORT AND STIMULATION, JUST LOOK AT NETFLIX'S GROWTH IN SUBSCRIBERS… Number of Netflix Paid Subscribers (M) 55 110 165 220 2 0 1 3 Q 1 2 0 1 3 Q 2 2 0 1 3 Q 3 2 0 1 3 Q 4 2 0 1 4 Q 1 2 0 1 4 Q 2 2 0 1 4 Q 3 2 0 1 4 Q 4 2 0 1 5 Q 1 2 0 1 5 Q 2 2 0 1 5 Q 3 2 0 1 5 Q 4 2 0 1 6 Q 1 2 0 1 6 Q 2 2 0 1 6 Q 3 2 0 1 6 Q 4 2 0 1 7 Q 1 2 0 1 7 Q 2 2 0 1 7 Q 3 2 0 1 7 Q 4 2 0 1 8 Q 1 2 0 1 8 Q 2 2 0 1 8 Q 3 2 0 1 8 Q 4 2 0 1 9 Q 1 2 0 1 9 Q 2 2 0 1 9 Q 3 2 0 1 9 Q 4 2 0 2 0 Q 1 2 0 2 0 Q 2 2 0 2 0 Q 3 2 0 2 0 Q 4 NUMBER OF NETFLIX PAID SUBSCRIBERS WORLDWIDE
  • 19. GEN Z (1995 & After) Millennial 
 (1980-1994) Gen X (1965-1979) Interested in content provided by these services 47% 44% 39% More affordable than cable or satellite television 42% 41% 38% More convenient to use these services (mobile, TV, etc.) 32% 29% 28% TOP REASON(S) FOR USING MORE STREAMING SERVICES IN 2021 BY GENERATION
  • 20. SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING WORK LIFE REBALANCE RE-COMMERCE SHOPPING LOCAL DIGITAL COMMERCE #5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE
  • 21. WORKING FROM HOME BEFORE AND DURING THE HEIGHT OF COVID-19 THE WORKPLACE WAS DISRUPTED BY COVID, WITH THE GOVERNMENT ENCOURAGING EMPLOYEES TO WORK FROM HOME (WHERE PRACTICAL)
  • 22. STUDIES SHOW AUSTRALIANS WANT TO CONTINUE TO WORK FROM HOME EVEN AFTER THE PANDEMIC. ON AVERAGE, EMPLOYEES WANT TO WORK IN THE OFFICE 3 DAYS A WEEK AND WORK FROM HOME THE OTHER 2 DAYS. *SOURCE: OPINION SURVEY - UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY
  • 23. 23 "FOR EVERY REACTION THERE IS AN EQUAL AND OPPOSITE REACTION.” - ISAAC NEWTON
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. *SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS In 2020, more people left Australia than arrived - this is the fi rst migration out fl ow since the end of World War II. Behavioural responses to the pandemic will keep immigration well below preceding levels for at least several years.
  • 30.
  • 31. 22.6% 26.7% 46.3% 40.5% 34.3% *SOURCE: UNIVERSITY RANKINGS - OFFICIAL # INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLMENT Just two years ago, prior to the pandemic, the university sector pulled in about $37 billion in revenue. 
 
 According to the latest data from the peak body, that dropped by $1.8 billion last year and at least 17,300 jobs were lost; a mixture of casual, part time and permanent positions. PRE-COVID NUMBER OF OVERSEAS STUDENTS AS % OF TOTAL STUDENTS *SOURCE:ABC NEWS
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 36. 94% OF FORTUNE 1000 COMPANIES HAVE EXPERIENCED CORONAVIRUS SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS
  • 37. THE PANDEMIC HIGHLIGHTED JUST HOW MANY GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS RELY ON OFFSHORE MANUFACTURING
  • 39. #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
  • 40. #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
  • 41. #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
  • 42. #4 INTERNATIONAL 
 TRAVEL #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS
  • 43. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
 TRAVEL
  • 44. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS TOP 5 ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
 TRAVEL
  • 45. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS #5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE TOP 5 ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
 TRAVEL
  • 46. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS #4 SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING #5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE TOP 5 ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
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  • 47. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS #4 SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING #5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE #3 SHOPPING LOCAL TOP 5 ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
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  • 48. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS #4 SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING #5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE #2 RE- COMMERCE #3 SHOPPING LOCAL TOP 5 ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
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  • 49. #5 CHINESE 
 SUPPLY #2 IMMIGRATION/ POP GROWTH #3 HIGHER EDUCATION #1 INCOME GROWTH TOP 5 DE-ACCELERATORS #4 SUBSCRIPTION STREAMING #5 WORK LIFE REBALANCE #2 RE- COMMERCE #3 SHOPPING LOCAL #1 DIGITAL COMMERCE TOP 5 ACCELERATORS #4 INTERNATIONAL 
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  • 50. 50 THERE’S NO FUTURE IN TOEING THE LINE
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  • 54. X 1 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com The Future of Retail: A Look at 2021 and Beyond
  • 55. X 2 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 2 Introduction to Coresight Research The New Consumer Behaviors that Will Stick Behaviors that Will Revert Retail in 2021 Longer-Term Opportunities Today’s Discussion
  • 56. X 3 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 3 Coresight Research is a research and advisory firm at the intersection of retail and technology. We provide leading retailers, brands, technology companies and investors with insights, data and advice to anticipate change and profit from the disruption reshaping the global retail landscape.
  • 57. X 4 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 4 The Coresight Research Advantage New York London Mangalore Hong Kong Shanghai San Francisco Nigeria Tel Aviv Deep retail expertise • Founded by Deborah Weinswig, top ranked retail analyst and influencer • Senior team with experience as retail executives, advisors and analysts Global reach • Offices in New York, San Francisco, London, Tel Aviv, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Mangalore, India and Nigeria Industry leadership • Extensive network of retail executives and influencers • Spearheading new retail concepts such as the 10.10 Shopping Festival
  • 58. X 5 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 5 Introduction to Coresight Research The New Consumer Behaviors that Will Stick Behaviors that Will Revert Retail in 2021 Longer-Term Opportunities Today’s Discussion
  • 59. X 6 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com • We expect US e-commerce sales to reach over $770 billion in 2021 • “Shop more online, less in stores” is most likely to be retained by consumers in the long run • Consumers are not just switching spending online; they are also diversifying the online channels and modes of interaction where they spend time and money Behaviors that Consumers Plan To Retain Source: Coresight Research THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL STICK Consumers Spending More Time and Money on Digital Channels CORESIGHT RESEARCH PROPRIETARY DATA
  • 60. X 7 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com • Environmentally conscious: 29% of US consumers report that the pandemic has made sustainability more of a factor to them when shopping • Health and wellness focused: Consumers increasingly value health and wellness, and are taking the management of these areas into their own hands • Socially conscious: Consumers take the identities of their brands very seriously, seeking brands that reaffirm their values; brands that do not articulate a clear brand identity get lost in the noise Whether the Crisis Has Made Sustainability More or Less of a Factor When Shopping for US Consumers (% of Respondents) Source: Coresight Research THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL STICK The Proliferation of Conscious and Healthy Consumers CORESIGHT RESEARCH PROPRIETARY DATA
  • 61. X 8 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com • As of late February 2021, 36% of US households had at least one adult substitute some or all of their typical in-person work for telework because of the coronavirus pandemic • We estimate that US livestreaming e-commerce will be a $6 billion+ market in 2021, as consumers look for more stimulated online experiences to replicate the joy of in-store shopping • Consumers are not just switching spending online; they are also diversifying the online channels and modes of interaction where they spend time and money online 14.9% 19.0% 34.7% 61.4% Less than high school High school or GED Some college/associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher Proportion of Households with At Least One Member Substituting Telework for In-Person Work, by Education Level of Worker (%) Source: US Census Bureau THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL STICK New Home-Based Modes of Work, Shopping and Entertainment
  • 62. X 9 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 9 Introduction to Coresight Research The New Consumer Behaviors that Will Stick Behaviors that Will Revert Retail in 2021 Longer-Term Opportunities Today’s Discussion
  • 63. X 10 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com • When consumers are able and confident to travel, enter entertainment venues and restaurants, they are likely to want to resume their prior behaviors • Once consumers view the pandemic as no longer a threat, the spending ratio of goods to services will likely revert to the prior trend • According to Coresight Research’s US Consumer Tracker, nearly half of US consumers currently expect to behave differently or retain a changed way of living in the long term, although this percentage has been eroding over time (from 67% in June 2020 to 45% in February 2021) 0.53 0.51 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.49 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.54 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Declining Trend Ratio of US Consumer Spending on Goods vs. Services Source: BEA/Coresight Research Year Goods to Service Spending Ratio THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL REVERT Spending Shifts Back to Services from Goods
  • 64. X 11 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com • In 2020, essential retailers saw solid growth, while many discretionary sectors struggled even as overall retail sales increased by 6.8% • Once consumer behaviors revert to normal patterns, pent-up demand will likely boost spending in out-of-favor sectors such as clothing and electronics (26.4)% (14.3)% (5.3)% 2.5% 5.5% 13.9% 11.5% 6.6% 1.7% Clothing and Accessories Electronics Furniture General Merchandise Sporting Goods Building Supplies Food and Beverage Warehouse Clubs Health & Personal Care Non-Essential Essential Source: US Census Bureau Retail Sales Change in 2020, by Selected Category (%) THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL REVERT Spending Shift from Essential to Non-Essential Retailers
  • 65. X 12 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com • Consumers are slowly returning to cities: Over the second half of winter, Apple data suggest a surge in foot traffic on streets in New York City • In January 2021, rent in New York City (as measured by the Zillow Observed Index) rose for the first time since before the pandemic Source: Apple/Zillow Daily Requests for Walking Directions in New York City (Seven-Day Average; January 13, 2020 = 100) THE NEW CONSUMER: BEHAVIORS THAT WILL REVERT Suburbanization to Re-Urbanization 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Feb 1 Feb 8 Feb 15 Feb 22 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15
  • 66. X 13 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 13 Introduction to Coresight Research The New Consumer Behaviors that Will Stick Behaviors that Will Revert Retail in 2021 Longer-Term Opportunities Today’s Discussion
  • 67. X 14 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Source: Company reports/Coresight Research Mar. 5 Announces plans to spin off Saks online Mar. 3 Announces plans to close at least 20% of stores Feb. 25 Exits bankruptcy one day after filing Mar. 4 Activists seek to take over board Mar. 3 Announces it will be acquired by PE firm Apollo Feb. 18 Announces plans to exit US market Mar. 3 Announces plan to invest $350B in US manufacturing Feb. 28 Makes two key fintech hires Feb. 2 Announces plans to create a SPAC RETAIL IN 2021 How We Started 2021: Recent Key Retail Events
  • 68. X 15 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Source: The Brookings Institute/MyMove/S&P 300,000 Projected fewer births in the US in 2021 >10% Year-over-year rise in home prices 200,000 Residents lost by New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Francisco in 2020 RETAIL IN 2021 2021 US Macro Overview
  • 69. X 16 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 4,689 3,280 2,409 4,000 (9,832) (8,745) (2,261) (10,000) 2019 2020 2021YTD 2021E Openings Closures Top 2021 YTD Announced US Store Openings by Sq. Ft. 1. Dollar General 2. Tractor Supply 3. Aldi 4. Costco 5. Five Below CORESIGHT RESEARCH PROPRIETARY DATA Source: Coresight Research Top 2021 YTD Announced US Store Closures by Sq. Ft. 1. Macy’s 2. Fry’s Electronics 3. Bed, Bath & Beyond 4. JCPenney 5. 7-Eleven RETAIL IN 2021 Heavy Store Closures Continuing Throughout 2021
  • 70. X 17 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Fulfillment Hub BOPIS and curbside options Micro-fulfillment centers New store designs Empowered Associates Automated stocking Analytics-enhanced inventory management Data Driven Leveraging consumer data to customize experiences Integrating data across the supply chain New Technology AR and VR technology Contactless payments Dynamic displays and promotions THE REIMAGINED STORE RETAIL IN 2021 Reimagining the Store
  • 71. X 18 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Forward and Reverse Logistics Online and Digitally Native Brands CBD Specialty Stores Healthcare Tenants Grocery Tenants Mall Tenant-Mix Diversification RETAIL IN 2021 Repurposing of Mall Real Estate
  • 72. X 19 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 19 Introduction to Coresight Research The New Consumer Behaviors that Will Stick Behaviors that Will Revert Retail in 2021 Longer-Term Opportunities Today’s Discussion
  • 73. X 20 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 1 2 3 4 5 The Convergence of Retail and Healthcare Explosion of Digital Consumer Health Management New Ways To Shop Technology-Turbocharged Retail Is Coming Fintech Is Sidelining Traditional Financial Institutions 6 Local Manufacturing and Supply Chain Modernization RETAIL IN 2021 Six Key Future Retail Trends
  • 74. X 21 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 1 LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES Convergence of Retail and Healthcare, Online and Offline
  • 75. X 22 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com 5.8 8.2 7.5 14.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.8 2017 2018 2019 2020 VC Funding (USD Bil.) Total Digital Health Digital Behavioral Health Clinical Services Going Online $140 million $110 million $100 million 34% Three-Year CAGR 82% Three-Year CAGR Mindfulness Going Mainstream Source: Rock Health Multiple CBD Acquisitions Total Digital Health Digital Behavioral Health 2 LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES Explosion of Digital Consumer Health Management, Particularly in Behavioral Health
  • 76. X 23 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Shopping Festivals Livestreaming Adaptive/Inclusive 3 LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES New Ways To Shop
  • 77. X 24 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Resiliency Agility Diversity 4 LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES Local Manufacturing and Supply Chain Modernization
  • 78. X 25 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Shopping in Virtual Reality Personalized Digital Signage Mobile Stores 5 LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES Technology-Turbocharged Retail Is Coming
  • 79. X 26 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Disrupting Multiple Sectors Coming Acceptance of Cryptocurrencies Nigeria—A Leading Global Fintech Center 6 LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNITIES Fintech Is Sidelining Traditional Financial Institutions
  • 80. X 27 | Proprietary & Confidential Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Marie Driscoll | MarieDriscoll@coresight.com Thank you! Marie Driscoll, CFA mariedriscoll@coresight.com
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  • 83. X Google Slides does not have an image placeholder option. Please place an image of speaker over this circle manually. Place Logo in circle below. James Johnson Director, Retail Industry Strategy
  • 84. X #1 Reversed role of online & store #2 Rise of the low touch economy #3 Shoppers expect next level service Overview of Key Takeaways Key themes shared by retailers at NRF2021... #4 Social responsibility is no longer optional
  • 85. X Takeaway #1 Reversed role of online & store Physical retail is becoming the support system for ecommerce with click & collect systems and returns (or dark stores for fulfillment) The pandemic period reversed the roles of online and physical stores, where online became more interactive and social, whereas stores have become more transactional and convenient by design Online interactions are the one and only channel to personalise and spend time on “shopping”
  • 86. X Takeaway #2 Rise of the low touch economy The pandemic has given the rise to a “low touch” economy where consumers (and employees) would avoid contact and large crowds and instead prefer experiences to be virtual and/or contactless Cornershop in London featuring virtual try-on technology Amazon taking contactless payment to the next level Stores used as content creation hub to generate more online sales Robots to replace stocking and shelf label changes
  • 87. X Takeaway #3 Shoppers expect next level service Consumer habits have been dramatically shifted by the pandemic and it is likely to be the “new normal”, leaving old habits behind and new expectations ahead that is faster, easier, and personalised Smart City Concepts and 5G will reshape the way shoppers experience last mile delivery and on-demand pop-up stores Service is the new product for shoppers with subscriptions, and hyper- personalisation is powered by AI
  • 88. X Takeaway #4 Social responsibility is no longer optional Pandemic has shown the vulnerability and impact of capitalism, making it imperative for businesses, especially retailers, to secure the safety, health, and livelihood of employees - and be active on social and climate justice Social justice and giving back to the local community was a key cornerstone for Lowe’s during the pandemic IKEA and H&M both promote sustainable products and practices to environment conscious consumers
  • 89. X Key Take Outs from Industry Leaders “There is a real behavior shift to digital. We don’t think this will go away” Celeste Burgoyne, Global Innovation @ Lululemon “The sooner we accept that physical retail will become the supporting act to virtual commerce, the sooner we can press the hard reset button and grow” Kate Ancketill, CEO @ GDR “It should be so low effort to shop, so intuitive, that the customer cannot see how seamless the backend system is” Marvin Ellison, CEO @ Lowes
  • 90. X Key Take Outs from Industry Leaders “Retail is still detail. The number of avenues to access retail has exploded - so the number of details has too” Fokke de Jong, CEO @ Suitsupply “Folks don’t internalise how tech is developing - in 5 years haptic phone screens where you can feel the texture of materials will be the default” Niraj Shah, Co-founder and CEO @ Wayfair “Luxury is the comfort food of retail - It was their way to feel — it was something so much more and so much deeper than a pair of shoes.” Marc Metrick, CEO @ Saks
  • 91. X Change Impacting Every Facet of Retail 66% of customers expect brands to understand their unique needs and expectations 79% of consumers say the experience a company provides is as important as its products 70% expect consistent, contextualised experiences Shopping At The Edge Omnichannel Experience Personalised Journeys Connected Service 16% purchases will be made on emerging commerce platforms Source: State of the Connected Customer 4th Edition, Salesforce Research, October 2020 (Consumer) & Salesforce Shopping Index
  • 92. X Fleur Brown Australian Retailers Association Episode 4 for Retail and Consumer Goods Trailblazers April 1st, 2021 11:30 AEST Register at salesforce.com/liveanz Salesforce Live ANZ The Great Acceleration in Retail and Consumer Goods Katie McNamara Super Retail Group Tommy McCubbin The Rebound Angus McDonald Barbeques Galore Sam Bain Mecca Tommy combines his experience of tech and business in The Rebound, Channel 9s most popular business show, airing to over 100,000 viewers weekly ● Coca-Cola Amatil discuss the revolution of their B2B commerce business ● Barbeques Galore take us on a sizzling virtual store tour ● Super Retail Group on intelligent customer and employee experiences ● MECCA on live commerce trends and transforming to virtual consultations ● ARA share retail trends & perspectives ● Salesforce Live Demonstrations Sarah O’Toole Coca Cola Amatil
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  • 95. Survival is the exception not the rule CarlSagan
  • 96. Last 6 decades economic growth has been the most important global policy goal Infinite growth is impossible in a finite world FACT STATUS QUO OUTCOME Source: Prosperity without Growth, Carl Sagan Continue as is at a growing cost to humanity Rethink the system that demands infinite growth NO CHANGE TOTAL CHANGE
  • 97. Last 6 decades economic growth has been the most important global policy goal Infinite growth is impossible in a finite world FACT STATUS QUO OUTCOME Source: Prosperity without Growth, Carl Sagan Continue as is at a growing cost to humanity Rethink the system that demands infinite growth NO CHANGE TOTAL CHANGE Reuse limited resource to create growth
  • 98. BUSINESS DRIVERS TRADITIONAL SOLUTION EMERGING SOLUTION Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Grow consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention) Reduce cost of product - offshore manufacturing + outsourcing of labour etc Increase seasons + introduce more categories Introduce diffusion lines, collabs, sub-brands Create a CRM + loyalty program GROWTH FUELLED BY MORE (CHEAPER) RESOURCES
  • 99. BUSINESS DRIVERS TRADITIONAL SOLUTION EMERGING SOLUTION Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention) Reduce cost of product - offshore manufacturing + outsourcing of labour etc Increase seasons + introduce more categories Introduce diffusion lines, collabs, sub-brands Create a CRM + loyalty program GROWTH FUELLED BY MORE (CHEAPER) RESOURCES exploit reuse introduce rental resell to new audiences repair product GROWTH FUELLED BY ‘INFINITE’ RECYCLING OF RESOURCE
  • 100. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention)
  • 101. we live in a world where courage is in much shorter supply than genius PeterThiel
  • 102. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention)
  • 103. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REFILL + REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention)
  • 104. IKEA BUY BACK PROGRAM - 27 COUNTRIES - 100% CIRCULAR BY 2030
  • 105. PATAGONIA WORN WEAR - REPAIR + RE-CRAFTED GOODS
  • 106. LOOP BY TERRACYCLE - ULTA, WALGREENS, KROGER, LOBLAWS, CARREFOUR
  • 107. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REFILL + REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention) Inner West Tool Library
  • 108. INNER WEST TOOL LIBRARY - COMMUNITY RENTAL TO A ‘LIBRARY OF THINGS’
  • 109. RALPH LAUREN’S RENTAL ‘THE LAUREN LOOK’
  • 110.
  • 111. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REFILL + REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention)
  • 112. 0 13 25 38 50 2009 2019 2029 US$43B US$36B US$22B US$36B US$21B US$10B US$44B US$7B US$0B Resale Traditional Second hand Fast Fashion Source: GlobalData Market Sizing via Thred Up resale is expected to replace fast fashion by ‘29
  • 113. 70% owned by H&M Strategic Partnership Based in Sweden and growing across Europe 5% owned by Kering (Gucci etc) Raised US$454.6M Valuation >$1B (Unicorn) IPO on March 25th (tomorrow) Valuation at IPO US$1.1B ‘Clean Out Kit’
  • 114. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention) House of Materialisation
  • 115. HOUSE OF MATERIALISATION - NFPs, RETAILERS, RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 116.
  • 117.
  • 118. RE economy REUSE RENTAL RESELL REPAIR Decrease cost of doing business Increase frequency of occasion Broaden consumer base Create customer loyalty (retention) GROWTH FUELLED BY ‘INFINITE’ RECYCLING OF RESOURCE GROWTH FUELLED BY MORE (CHEAPER) RESOURCES FROM TO
  • 119. Thank you Level 4, 1a Rialto Lane, Manly NSW 2095 retailoasis.com 02 9976 6222
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