3. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Background: Lifecycle of Almonds
4. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Background: Climate and Production
Specific climate requirements
Early blooming
Requires chill (<10°C)
Sensitive to fungal diseases
Tolerates dry, hot conditions
‘Mediterranean climate’
Requires cross pollination
Responds to increased water
applications with yield
5. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
•Commercially grown for over
100 years, 400,000 ha
•Water system provides
adequate irrigation
•Largest coordinated
pollination event in world
•Price, Highly mechanize,
reduction of input costs
driving growth
Background: California Production
6. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Production area (1000 ha)
Introduction
Development
Establishment
Industry Transition
Expansion
Stabilization
Expansion
Background: California Production
Initial Varieties
Selected
Plantings in
“rough ground,”
almond rootstocks
Deep soil, irrigated
plantings, peach
rootstocks
Formation of
grower assessed
commodity board,
new rootstocks
Dividends of
increasing market,
good price
Research and trials
with new rootstocks,
irrigation systems,
dealing with
marketing headwinds
Expansion due to
profitability over
other ag systems,
reduced input
costs
8. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
CA Almonds: Acreage and Production Trends
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Production area (1000 ha)
Production (1000 tons)
Expansion
Stabilization
Expansion
Tighter Spacings
Reduced Pruning
Micro-irrigation systems
Better Nutrient Management
Increased Plantings
Increasing Yields/ha
Market
Redevelopment
Researching of new
technologies
9. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Price per kg (USD)
Expansion
Stabilization
Expansion
Re-starting of
marketing and
nutrition research
Market Expansion
International Market -
Developing Countries
CA Almonds: Production and Price Trends
Production (1000 tons)
“Bad Fat Era” “Good Fat Era”
2002 Healthy Claim as result
from research
10. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Gross income/ ha USD
(Adjusted 2014 CPI)
Expansion
Stabilization
Expansion
Increased Revenue from
gains in production AND
marketing!
CA Almonds: Farm Value Trends
11. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Year Statewide AVG
Yield
Unadjusted
Cost/kg (USD)
2014 CPI Adjusted
Cost/kg (USD)
1985 2250 kg/ha 2.36 5.29
1992 2250 kg/ha 2.40 4.12
2003 2700 kg/ha 2.80 3.62
2011 2800 kg/ha 3.33 3.52
CA Almonds: Farm Value Trends
Decreasing input costs due to
mechanization, labor reduction
Dilution of expenses over greater
yields/ha
12. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
CA Almonds: Tail Wagging the Dog?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Production area (1000 ha)
What drives what?
14. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development
Industry Stability was Required
Provides opportunity for
identification of SWOT
“Three Legged” Approach to
Commodity Success
• Production Research
• Market (Health and Quality)
Research
• Market Development
15. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Research has determined
health benefits from almonds
“Heart Healthy” Food Label
Turned it from a dessert
into an everyday snack
Research in Food Safety helped
maintain quality over time,
reduced food safety risks
Almond Industry Development: Market Research
Source: www.hersheys.com
“Bad Fat,” Dessert Food
“Good Fat,” Snack Food
16. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Approach:
• Create value
• Get noticed
• Gain respect
• Change the game
• Raise the bar
Almond Industry Development: Consumer Demand
17. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Consumer Demand
Dispel the negatives
• No cholesterol
• Low saturated fat
Promote the positives
• Good fat
• Protein
• Fiber
• Vitamin E
Build on strengths
• Taste and crunch
• Versatility
Creating Value
First qualified health claim for
conventional food – 2003
18. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Consumer Demand
Nutrition Research
Health
Professionals
Public Relations
Consumer
Advertising
Time
Heart Check – 2011
19. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Consumer Demand
Gaining Public’s Respect
20. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Consumer Demand
Changing the Game: Evolving positioning and messaging
• Ingredient that makes food better
• Balance of great taste and great nutrition
• Good for your body
•Improves your life
1998 2003 2008 2013
21. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Market Development
Raising the Bar in Demand.
22. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Traditional Markets:
Good Value nut in
comparison to others
Strong Domestic and
Traditional Markets
Emerging markets
High perceived value in
many Asian cultures
Increasing middle class
Almond Industry Development: Market Development
24. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
The best orchards alternate around this line
2500 at 50% int.
4000 at 80% interception
25. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
Integration of rootstock technology, planting density and
arrangement, and minimal pruning.
26. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
Orchard Development: Research in pre-plant pest control, developing
nutrition and irrigation programs
Earlier Canopy Development = Earlier Yield!
27. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
28. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
More efficient water
applications
More efficient delivery
of nutrients
Higher vigor, reduction of alternate bearing = Increased production
29. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
~ 20 insect pests. Management
guidelines for insects have been
developed.
30. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
~ 25 diseases. Management
guidelines have been developed.
31. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry Development: Production Research
Generally more management on diseases and insects
Longer term production based projects always in focus
Takes time, money, and considerable effort for those
involved
33. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
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4
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8
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100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Price per kg (USD)
CA Almonds: Weaknesses and Threats
Production (1000 tons)
High Prices in late 90’s
drove demand down
Food Safety Issues in
2005-2006
Short term “low
prices” in 2009
Record prices
expected in 2014,
impact on demand?
34. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
CA Almonds: Weaknesses and Threats
California
82%
EU-27
6%
Australia
5%
Turkey
2%
Others
5%
Percentage of World Almond Production
Consolidation leads to
commodity instability
35. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
CA Almonds: WOP
37. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Industry: Lessons Learned
• Resource and climate limitations
constrain world supply
• Consumer/Health Research and culture
creates a premium for almonds
• Research must create a safe product,
reduce production volatility, while
increasing production
• If the marketing is effective, then it is
always a production issue
38. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
Almond Farmers are Riding High...
Gaining on these opportunities,
farm value has doubled in the last
40 years while input costs have
decreased, but...
Resources are becoming more
limited
Environmental and production
issues associated with rapid
expansion.
39. 2014 AMS 40th Anniversary Industry Conference proudly presented by
...but the Future is Bright
Record prices for all of nut crops
due to increase demand from
health research
High productivity of orchards will
make orchards profitable even at
lower prices
Carry-over into many nut crops –
including walnut, pistachio, and
macadamias.
