2. FOOD, THE WEAK LINK
“WE ARE ENTERING A NEW ERA OF RAISING FOOD PRICES
AND SPREADING HUNGER” –LESTER BROWN
FOOD EQUATION:
Demand
Population growth
Rising affluence
conversion of food into
fuel
Supply
Soil Erosion
Growing water Shortages
Grain yields plateauing
Rising temperatures
PRODUCTION HAS ITS LIMITS BUT
DEMAND KEEPS ON INCREASING
3. FOOD SECURITY
Large stocks of grains cushioned world crop shortfalls.
1950
U.S. Cropland set aside program
Annual world carryover stocks
constantly dropping
Phasing out of U.S. cropland set aside
program
Food Abundance period Barely Keeping pace with demand
THE WORLD IS NOW LIVING FROM
ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT
1986 Present
4. RISING FOOD PRICES, STRAINED BUDGETS
AND HUNGER
Rising demand is raising food prices, for consumers who
spend more than 50% of their income on food this
represents a serious problem, forcing them to eat less.
5. The increasing demand for food is rising food prices, making the poor not being able to keep
up with them. Now many households that ate at least one meal a day have foodless days as a
weekly routine.
6. RISING FOOD PRICES, STRAINED BUDGETS AND
HUNGER
Despite the efforts to eradicate hunger, relentless population growth
is making it more difficult and is putting excessive pressure on land
and water resources making it difficult for farmers to keep pace.
Most of the nearly 1 billion people who are chronically hungry live in
the Indian sub-continent and the sub-Saharan Africa.
7. RISING FOOD PRICES, STRAINED BUDGETS AND
HUNGER
These graphs show how population is growing even faster in
developing countries, precisely countries that have hunger
problems have the highest population growth rates making
this problem persistent over time.
8. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Stage 1:
High Birth Rates
High Death
Rates
Stage 2 :
High Birth Rates
Decreasing Death
Rates
Stage 3 :
Decreasing Birth
Rates
Decreasing
Death Rates
Stage 4 :
Low Birth Rates
Low Death Rates
9. countries that fail to shift to smaller families risk being
overwhelmed by land and water shortages, disease and civil
conflicts.
governments cannot longer provide personal security, food security
or basic social services such as education and health care
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
10. Countries that have made it into stage three with lower fertility and
fewer children benefit for higher rates of savings, they have a
“demographic bonus”: the number of dependents decline relative to
the number of working adults. Investment rises and economic growth
accelerates.
The only humane option is to move quickly to replacement-level
fertility of two children per couple and to stabilize world population as
soon as possible
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
11. In every society where income has risen, the appetite for meat, milk
eggs and sea food has generated an enormous growth in animal
protein consumption.
As people consume more meat, milk, eggs and farmed fish indirect
grain consumption rises.
MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN
13 Pounds = 1 Pound
12. MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN
Between 1950-1990 the oceanic fish catch climbed from 17 Million
to 84 million tons. The human appetite for seafood has outgrown
the sustainable yield of oceanic fisheries. Today 4/5 of fisheries are
being fished at or beyond their sustainable capacity. Many have
declined and some have collapsed.
13. MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN
Worldwide roughly
35% of the 2.3 billion
ton annual grain
harvest is used for
feed. In contrast,
nearly all of the
soybean harvest ends
up as feed.
People with the
longest life expectancy
are not those who live
very low or very high
on the food chain but
those who occupy an
intermediate position.
14. FOOD OR FUELNot only are biofuels raising food prices and increasing the number of
hungry people; it also makes little sense from a energy efficiency
perspective.
The grain required to fill a 25 gallon fuel tank of a vehicle with ethanol
just once would feed one person for a whole year.
In terms of energy efficiency, grain-based ethanol is a clear loser: the
energy return on energy invested in producing corn-based ethanol is only
1.5 to 1.
15. FOOD OR FUELGood news is that as more stringent U.S. Auto fuel-efficiency standards
are introduced, gasoline used by cars will decline, and grain-based ethanol
will also decline.
A Major move to electric cars will further reduce the use of gasoline,
using electricity from wind farms, solar cells, or geothermal power plants
to power cars will dramatically reduce carbon emissions.
16. WATER AND FOOD SCARCITYAs adults each of us drink nearly 4 liters of water a day, but it takes 2000
liters of water to produce the food we consume each day.
70% of world water is used for irrigation.
17. WATER AND FOOD SCARCITY
40% of the world grain
harvest is grown on
irrigated land, and 40%
of world irrigated area is
dependent on
underground water.
Water tables are falling,
irrigation wells are going
dry.
If the pumping surpasses
the sustainable yield of
the aquifer, aquifers are
depleted.
18. GRAIN YIELDS STARTING TO PLATEAU
Grain yield per hectare cannot continue rising indefinitely, once we
remove nutrients constraints by applying fertilizer and we remove
soil moisture constraints by irrigating then is the potential of
photosynthesis and the local climate that ultimately limit crop
yields.
The earth rising temperature is making it more difficult to sustain a
steady rise in grain yields.
19. RISING TEMPERATURE-RISING FOOD PRICES
High temperatures interfere with pollination and reduce
photosynthesis of basic food crops. High temperatures can
also dehydrate plants.
Rule of thumb suggest that for 1 degree Celsius rise above the
norm during the growing season lowers wheat, rice and corn
yields by 10%.
20. RISING TEMPERATURE-RISING FOOD PRICES
China and India are the world’s 2 top wheat producers and rice
harvest.
It is the glaciers ice melt that keeps the major rivers of India
and china flowing during the dry season, therefore the world
has never faced such a predictably massive threat to food
production as the melting mountain glaciers of Asia.
Himalayan glacier
21. WHAT CAN WE DO?
(NOT IN THE BOOK)
Support education.
Stabilize population worldwide as soon as possible by
eliminating poverty. Education plays a big role, educated
men and women who have fewer children can become
more economically powerful and contribute to a better
future for their families and their communities.
22. WHAT CAN WE DO?
Reduce excessive
meat consumption.
By eating less meat we
can save:
Water
Land
Grains
Fuel.
23. WHAT CAN WE DO?
Reduce excessive meat consumption.
By eating less meat we can reduce methane emissions
and ease global warming
24. WHAT CAN WE DO?
Reverse biofuels policies
Do not support the use of biofuels, do not buy grain-
based fuel.
25. EVERY DAY YOU MAKE A
CHOICE
Every time you seat down to eat you make a choice,
choose wisely, do not eat other’s food by choosing high
resource consumption food.
Buy local.
Walk or use public transportation when possible.
Choose an issue to work on and share your concern.
Join an institution that works on what you concern the
most.
