Sgcp14south

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Talk delivered at CIR Series http://www.hvm-uk.com/events/register/

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Sgcp14south

  1. 1. Distributed  Genera.on   Alan  South,  Chief  Innova.on  Officer   6th Smart Grids & Cleanpower Executive Briefing Day 3 June 2014, Cambridge, UK www.hvm-uk.com
  2. 2. Commercial  opera.on  of  the  na.onal  132kV  electric  power   transmission  grid  begins  in  the  UK.  It  is  the  first  integrated   na.onal  grid  in  the  world.  Small  and  inefficient  power  sta.ons   are  being  closed  down.   (1935)   Source: Grid@75
  3. 3. 3   Source: Shell New Lens scenarios: Oceans
  4. 4. 4   Source: Edison Foundation Brief October 2013 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 1am 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12pm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12am Kilowatt Consumption6 Solar6Production Utility provides power Utility provides power Customer generation, grid support needed Customer uses grid to export excess power
  5. 5. 5   Source: Google images
  6. 6. 6   Source: Morgan Stanley March 4, 2014 Clean Tech, Utilities & Autos Batteries + Distributed Gen. May Be a Negative for Utilities Improvements in batteries and distributed generation could partly or completely eliminate some customers’ usage of the power grid. We see the greatest potential for such disruption in the West, Southwest, and mid-Atlantic. Our analysis suggests utility customers may be Industry Views Industry Industry View Autos & Auto-Related In-Line Clean Tech In-Line Diversified Utilities / IPPs In-Line Regulated Utilities In-Line California Solar Competitiveness $ / KWh $0.08 $0.10 $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.18 Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Stephen C Byrd Stephen.Byrd@morganstanley.com +1 212 761 3865 Adam Jonas, CFA Adam.Jonas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761 1726 Simon Flannery Simon.Flannery@morganstanley.com +1 212 761 6432 Timothy Radcliff Timothy.Radcliff@morganstanley.com +1 212 761 4139 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H N O R T H A M E R I C A
  7. 7. 7  The  u.li.es’  new  philosophy:  either  adapt  -­‐-­‐  or  wither  away  and  die   Under  threat,  Germany’s  second-­‐biggest  u.lity  says  it  will  create  a  new  ‘prosumer  business  model’   The world’s largest solar bridge under construction in London 6 •  “The  massive  erosion  of  wholesale  prices  caused  by   the  growth  of  German  photovoltaics  cons.tutes  a   serious  problem  for  RWE  which  may  even  threaten   the  company’s  survival,”  wrote  the  u.lity  in  a  recent   strategy  paper.   •  Clearly,  the  management  of  RWE,  un.l  recently  seen   as  one  of  the  “dir.est”  energy  companies  in  Europe,   has  decided  once  and  for  all  to  leave  its  past  behind   and  embrace  a  future  in  which  it  believes  renewable   and  increasingly  decentralized  forms  of  energy  will   dominate.. •  RWE  indicated  that  they  will  no  longer  invest  in  fossil   power  genera.on  as  of  2018.   Energy  transi.on   The  impact  on  the  power  sector  business  model   Source: Solarcentury
  8. 8. 8   Drivers  and  barriers  for  distributed  genera.on   low  cost   renewables   low  cost  and   accessible  storage   and  controls   grid  charges  and/ or  poor  grid  
  9. 9. 9   22%  cost  reduc.on  each  .me  installs  double   Source: Solar Photovoltaics V, EPIA
  10. 10. 10   Source: SMA website
  11. 11. 11   Solar  growth  to  2015   Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance “PV Market Outlook” Q2 2013” 13 May 2013 2.8GW 6.6GW 7.7GW 18.2GW 28.7GW 30.5GW 39.6GW 50.5GW 59.2GW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan USA China India Rest of World Historical Forecast
  12. 12. 12   East  Africa’s  largest  solar  installa.on   Source: Solarcentury
  13. 13. 13   Source: SolarCity website
  14. 14. 14   solarcity   Source: Prox website
  15. 15. …  think  investors  generally  do  not  appreciate  the  poten.al  size   of  the  market.   Source: Morgan Stanley

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