The document discusses a scenario where political will accelerates a dramatic shift in the global energy mix away from petroleum towards hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. This would require massive investments in hydrogen production infrastructure and fuel cell technology to bring costs down and make the scenario viable. The biggest risks and barriers are the ability to reduce fuel cell and hydrogen costs at scale, as well as generating sufficient political will through public-private cooperation and incentives on the scale of other major programs.

1. Innovative Visions – Art of the Possible Potential for Dramatic Energy Mix Shift Mary Tolan Chief Executive Resources Group, Accenture

7. G8 Petroleum Consumption Transportation Share of Total Petroleum Consumption for G8 - 2001 G8 Petroleum Consumption and Forecast – 1995-2015 Source: US Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook , Annual Energy Outlook 2002 Source: US Department of Energy – Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook , Annual Energy Outlook 2002

12. Accelerating Change Petroleum Consumption Transportation Fleet – G8 Countries Source: Accenture analysis Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Annual Sales – G8 Countries Source: Accenture analysis MM

13. Accelerating Change Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Annual Sales – G8 Countries Source: Accenture analysis Petroleum Consumption Transportation Fleet – G8 Countries Source: Accenture analysis Total transportation demand with 50% FCV penetration by 2015 MM FCV capture 100% of new vehicle sales

15. Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost Cents per mile Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost Reduction Impacts Total ownership cost Reduce fuel cell cost * Includes advances in conversion efficiency, reduced hydrogen compression, storage and dispensing loss rates Fuel Body/ BOS Fuel Cell Reduce fuel cell cost from $250/kw to $30/kw Conventional Vehicle

16. Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost Cents per mile Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost Reduction Impacts Total ownership cost Reduce fuel cell cost * Includes advances in conversion efficiency, reduced hydrogen compression, storage and dispensing loss rates Increase fuel cell life Reduce body & BOS cost Fuel Body/ BOS Fuel Cell Reduce fuel cell cost from $250/kw to $30/kw Conventional Vehicle

17. Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost Cents per mile Fuel Cell Vehicle Cost Reduction Impacts Total ownership cost Reduce fuel cell cost * Includes advances in conversion efficiency, reduced hydrogen compression, storage and dispensing loss rates Increase fuel cell life On-Peak Power Sales Revenue Reduce body & BOS cost Reduce system energy costs* Long-term goal Fuel Body/ BOS Fuel Cell Reduce fuel cell cost from $250/kw to $30/kw Conventional Vehicle

18. Upfront subsidy required Subsidy for Adopting Fuel Cell Vehicle G8 Countries

24. Natural Gas Reformation – Capital Capital Investment to 2020 – Decentralized Natural Gas Reformation* $B * Source: Accenture analysis ~90% vehicle fleet is Fuel Cell Vehicles – 75% supplied by Natural Gas ------------------US--------------------- -----------------Europe------------------

29. Leveling Electricity Load Typical Electricity Load Profile Hours GW Excess baseload capacity during off-peak hours – could supply 25% of US Vehicle Fleet US Profile

30. Power Generation Equivalent Source: Accenture analysis, US Department of Energy – Energy Information Association, European Environment Agency Fuel Cell Vehicle Penetration Equal to Total Installed Electric Generation Capacity

41. Putting it into Perspective