Big Bet On Solar PV

How Solar Energy creates Jobs and frees America from foreign oil Jigar Shah Solar Industry Veteran

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Challenge Scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Political Will for Infrastructure Set up Scenario:

Challenge Scenario ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Political Will for Local Development through Government Mandates Set up Scenario:

Global Warming vs. National Security ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Why does this accelerate change? Political Will

Third Industrial Revolution ,[object Object],Distributed Generation Positive Power Buildings Next Generation Grid Smart Grid / Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

Job Creation ,[object Object],Investment and Job Creation through 2016 Solar PV Buildings (Energy Efficiency) Next Generation Grid Smart Grid / Plug-in Hybrids Private Sector Investment $200B $200B $200B $200B Public Sector Investment $54B $10B $54B $54B Local Job-Years 400,000 3,000,000 50,000 100,000 Manufacturing / Centrally Located 800,000 500,000 800,000 1,100,000 National Infrastructure Bank $50B $10B $50B $50B Annual Customer Savings $2.3B $21B $2.3B $2.3B

What about Coal and Natural Gas? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

New Mandates Renewables ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Democratization of Energy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Why Solar?

Theory of the Possible ,[object Object]

Near-term Solar Potential ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What is Realistic The United States has over 1,400 utility companies. Over $200B of solar PV can be installed by 2016 creating over 2,000,000 job-years of employment and Billions in tax revenue 2010 2015 2020 Area of solar competitiveness Electricity Price Rising

Government Challenge ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Biggest Challenge – Utility Resistance and Political Will

Solar PV Pathway to 2012 Goal * All advances have already been discovered to achieve above benefits, implementation and optimization through scale is required Cents per Retail kWh Total ownership cost Balance of System (BOS) Reliability 2012 goal O&M Solar Panels Balance of System/ Installation Labor Avg. Retail Electricity Price Cell Efficiency 15% to 19% Mfg. Yield 85%  95% Mfg. Scale (MWs) 100  900 Silicon Material  50% Installation Efficiency Scale/Speed Solar System Cost Reduction Impacts O&M Solar Panels BOS/ Install BOS/ Install

Solar Program Justification Sources of Benefits from Solar Power Installations Employment/Fees – income tax, sales tax, local fees Includes mfg, engineering, design, installation, and overhead jobs. Emissions – secondary using cap & trade values NO x , SO x , Mercury, and CO 2 Electric Grid Reliability Benefits Reliability, Loss Savings, Substation, Transmission, Peak Load Availability – 5% reduction is wholesale/peak power prices Health Care Reduced deaths from particulate pollution and asthma related heath care costs Water Power is the #1 user of water in the country, 1.8L per kWh

Japanese Solar Program Historical Solar Subsidy and Benefits 10 year program – Breakeven 2003/4 (Billions Yen)

Public Will ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What will it take to drive acceptance?

Advantaged Cost ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],We can get to parity in electricity costs…

Existing Buildings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Existing Stock

New Construction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],New Stock

How do we sell it? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Implications for Channel

What about other Renewables? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Implications for Renewables Broadly

Electric Power Business ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Implications for Power Business

Solar Suppliers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Summary

Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Scenario Review:

Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Biggest Risks to Scenario:

Likelihood of Political Will ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Drivers of Political Will Add to this: Opportunities for Political and Economic Upside

Upside ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Opportunities for Upside If you were a US Political Leader Trying to Inspire your Electorate…

Subsidy & Spending Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The $6.3 Billion incremental incentive this requires over 8 years is small relative to the size of other programs Source: Public Citizen

Big Bet On Solar PV

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