Informing Agricultural Trends and Livelihoods in West Africa

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CAADP: MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES,Logical Framework of ReSAKSS(Regional Strategic Analysis Knowledge Support System),ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options,TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND
LIVELIHOODS ECONOMIC GROWTH

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Informing Agricultural Trends and Livelihoods in West Africa

  1. 1. CONTRACT REVIEW SEMINAR Mbaye YadeRegional Coordinator ReSAKSS WA Informing Agricultural Trends and Livelihoods in West Africa
  2. 2. OUTLINE• INTRODUCTION• CAADP• ReSAKSS• PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS• TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS• CONCLUSIONSRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 2
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION• CGIAR INITIATIVE LED BY IFPRI: => promote more efficient policies and allocations of scarce public resources through a network of partners sharing data, tools for policy and institutional analysis, and analytical outputs: – FOCUS ON SOME COUNTRIES WITH HIGH BUDGET NATIONAL SAKSS FUNAED BY DONORS – SUPPLY DRIVEN – 3 SAKSS nodes and a continent wide one• CAADP CONTEXT: focus on the support to REC’s to implement, monitor and evaluate agricultural policies and strategies: – BUILD ON EXISTING NETWORKS – IMPLEMENT NATIONAL FOCAL GROUP CONCENT – MOBILISE ANA STRENGTHEN NATIONAL ANA REGIONAL CAPACITIES ANA EXPERTISE – BROADER GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE• ReSAKSS WA CURRENTLY FUNAED BY DFID, SIDA AND USAID Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 3
  4. 4. CAADP: MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES AU PROGRAM: OWNED BY AFRICAN COUNTRIES AFRICAN LED ANA GROWN AS PART OF NEPAD PROCESS: UNLIKE SAP OBJECTIVES ANA TARGETS SET BY HSG ALIGNMENT OF DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE WITH CAADP OBJECTIVES ANA PRINCIPLES INWARD LOOKING: UNLIKE LAGOS PLAN OF ACTION AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1 TARGET GOAL OF 6% GROWTH RATE INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE) FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES FOCUS ON GOVERNANCE: POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW, ACCOUNTABILITY INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 4
  5. 5. ECOWAP/CAADP THEMES• improving water management• sustainable farm development• improved management of other shared natural resources• development of agricultural chains and market promotion• prevention and management of food crises and other natural disasters• Institutional buildingRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 5
  6. 6. RESAKSS: KNOWLEDGE SUPPORT FOR PEER REVIEW ANA POLICY DIALOGUE COUNTRY STRATEGIC COUNTRY SUPPORT ANALYSIS NODE NARS/GOV Regional SAKSS Nodes CGIAR ENA USERS COORDINATION LOCAL GOVERNANCE ORG RECs / SROs COUNTRY LEVEL REGIONAL LEVEL CONTINENT LEVELSupport for planning, Support for Support for Policy Implementation, & Regional Coordination and Dialogue and Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Progress Review Peer Review Mutual Review 66 Page Page
  7. 7. ReSAKSS WA• VALUE ADDITION: – Shared/credible database – Analytical expertise and agenda – Tracking and Monitoring Support – Policy Dialogue;• Facilitate access by ECOWAS and its member states to policy-relevant analyses of the highest quality  – generate necessary knowledge to improve policy making – track progress /document success – derive lessons that can feed into the review and learning processesRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 7
  8. 8. Logical Framework of ReSAKSS• 1. Strategic Analysis – Policy and Investment Options – Spatial Analysis – Monitoring and Evaluation• 2. Knowledge Management• 3. Capacity BuildingRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 8
  9. 9. ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options• Joint project WARDA ReSAKSS WA “Stratification of Rice and Maize Production Systems in Support for Investment Decisions”• Climate change adaptation study: estimate impact of possible climate change on the future growth potential of West Africa’s agricultureRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 9
  10. 10. ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options (cont.)Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 10
  11. 11. ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options (cont.)• Regional Strategic Priorities in Agriculture for Growth and Poverty Reduction in West Africa Study in collaboration with IFPRI – the overall economic growth rates required to meet key development targets – the impacts of different agricultural sub-sectors on agricultural GDP as well as total GDP and poverty – the returns to productivity-enhancing investments vs. reductions in barriers to trade and marketing – the potential added returns to regional cooperation in agricultural R&D and infrastructure investments – the governance impact on regional cooperation and growthRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 11
  12. 12. ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options (cont.) 6 GDP AgGDP 5 4 3 2 1 0 G R FA ia G gal C n E R he C a G IV G ad al B C ast M i a R N nin na ne r B o C bon N T al Se ige bi lia ne R A SL go g N Sa R M er tr C M ha h B To C am D G o en e C ig ui C a onRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 12
  13. 13. ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options (cont.) Average AgGDP annual growth in different scenarios 90 % Add gr fr catching-up yield potential 7 80 Add gr fr pest/weed control Base 6 70 5 60 East 4 50 West 3 40 North 2 30 South 1 20 0 10 G R go C on Sa RC G e G ad a bia N in am ia R ra ea so rit i Se er G al na n n C st dI e al u ia au al ir on lia oo sa A go tr C ger g an en oa ig M er uin h Fa ha To vo ab 0 C D ne m ne en he is C C Le N er on B C a i B na e ki 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr ot Mur Si uiB G Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 13
  14. 14. ACHIEVEMENTS STRATEGIC ANALYSIS- Policy and Investment Options (cont.) Sub-sector’s contribution to total Agricultural growth % Cereals Roots Pulse&oilseedl 8 Veg&fruit Cocoa Cotton O.high-value Livestock Others 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 ia i a au na ia so al in d er a on e n C R AR go ire al ne an bi on oo ha er en R eg go M ig Fa ss ha ab To vo am C D ui rit ig Le C N er B en on Bi G G dI G N na au am G S C rra a e ki M ne C otur ie C ui SB G Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 14
  15. 15. ACHIEVEMENTS Strategic Analysis - Spatial Analysis Mapping Child Nutrition• Child Stunting in WCARegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 15
  16. 16. ACHIEVEMENTS Strategic Analysis - Spatial Analysis Mapping Child Nutrition (cont.)• TreNAs in Stunting in WCARegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 16
  17. 17. ACHIEVEMENTSStrategic Analysis - Monitoring and Evaluation• Study on the progress of the agricultural sector and households’ livelihoods in West Africa: – Agricultural expenditures in relation with the Maputo declaration: >=10 % of national budget to agriculture – Recent achievements and emerging trendss: ag productivity and growth, poverty reduction and alleviation of hunger and child malnutrition;• AGRIS: ECOWAS/WAEMU/CILSS initiative for an Integrated Information System on Agriculture• CAADP M&E FrameworkRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 17
  18. 18. ACHIEVEMENTS Knowledge Management Technical Support to CAADP Round Table Process at national and regional levels• Facilitating National nodes• Dissemination of analytical results: – Abuja, October 2006: ECOWAS/IFPRI/IITA – Accra, August 2007: WARDA/IITA-ReSAKSS – Dakar, March 2008: RADI/IITA/WARDA – Abuja May 2008: ECOWAS/IITA/WARDA – Ouagadougou, June 2008: Trends – Accra, May 2009: TrendsRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 18
  19. 19. ACHIEVEMENTS Capacity Building• Policy Analysis and Modeling – Modeling workshop for CAADP national teams, March 12 – 15, 2007 – Technical workshop for the joint IFPRI/IITA WCA study – Methodological workshop for the study on trends• Geographic Information Systems – Training for IITA GIS CollaboratorRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 19
  20. 20. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS AGRICULTURAL FUNDING • Left: Ag budget shares; right: Ag actual expenditure shares • Downward trends • In general: >10% for Sahelian countries and < % for coastal countries except for Ghana 703530 60 BURKINA FASO25 50 BURKINA FASO20 40 MALI15 3010 MALI GHANA 20 BENIN NIGER SENEGAL5 NIGERIA 10 GHANA TOGO NIGERIA BENIN COTE DIVOIRE TOGO COTE DIVOIRE0 0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 20
  21. 21. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS AGRICULTURAL FUNDING (cont.)• Left: ratio R1=share of ag expenditures/contribution of ag sector to overall economic growth; right: investment share in ag expenditures;• Ratio R1 and Investment share higher for Sahelian countries 100 NIGER BURKINA FASO 75 SENEGAL MALI NIGERIA BENIN 50 GHANA 25 C. DIVOIRE TOGO 0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 21
  22. 22. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS AGRICULTURAL FUNDING (cont.) • left: share of internal resources in ag expenditures; right: share of internal resources in ag investments • Ratios higher for coastal countries100 100 GHANA COTE DIVOIRE 90 GHANA TOGO 80 COTE DIVOIRE75 70 SENEGAL BENIN 60 SN50 50 MALI BENIN 40 3025 MALI BURKINA FASO 20 NIGER BURKINA FASO 10 NIGER TOGO 0 0 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 2008 Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 22
  23. 23. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS AGRICULTURAL FUNDING (cont.)• Share of individual sub sectors to ag expenditures Production végétale Elevage Pêches, Forêts et Chasse 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% BENIN BURKINA COTE GHANA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL TOGO FASO DIVOIRERegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 23
  24. 24. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS AGRICULTURAL FUNDING (cont.)• Higher shares of agricultural expenditures and agricul- tural investments are due more to external funding Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 24
  25. 25. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS ECONOMIC GROWTH• Real GDP growth rate Country/Period 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2003-2007ECOWAS 2.2% 3.6% 8.0% 5.9%ECOWAS withoutNigeria 1.2% 4.9% 4.1% 4.4%Sahelian Countries 2.4% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2%Coastal Countries 2.1% 3.3% 8.7% 6.1%Coastal Countrieswithout Nigeria 0.5% 4.7% 4.0% 3.9%Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 25
  26. 26. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS ECONOMIC GROWTH (2003-2207) (cont.) Growth rate CountryNegative Liberia0 to 3% Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Togo Bénin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Mali,3 to 6% Niger, SénégalMore than 6% Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Cape-Verde Per capita GDP CountryLess than 500 $ PPP Guinea Bissau, Liberia500 to 1 000 $ PPP Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Togo1 000 to 1 500$ PPP Bénin, Ghana, Nigeria, SénégalMora than 1 500 $ PPP Cape-Verde, Côte d’Ivoire Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 26
  27. 27. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS 1/ Share of agriculture – 2/ Contribution of agriculture to economic growth Period 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2003-2007ECOWAS 31% 31% 32% 31%ECOWAS without Nigeria 31% 30% 30% 29%Sahelian Countries 28% 29% 28% 27%Coastal Countries 31% 32% 32% 32% Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 27
  28. 28. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS 1/ Growth rate of Value added per worker – 2/ Contribution of crop sub sector to ag growthRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 28
  29. 29. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS 1/ Contribution of livestock to ag growth– 2/ Contribution of fisheries and forestry to ag growthRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 29
  30. 30. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODSDistribution of Land among crops in ECOWAS Region Grain Leg umes 9 .8 % C o f f ee/ C acao 8 .7% C ereals , 56 .2 % Oil Seed s 11.4 %R o o t s and T ub ers13 .9 %Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 30
  31. 31. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Production Trends Cereals- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007) Groundnuts- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007) Country Production Yield Population maximal Gambia 6,5% NT 3,4% Country Production Yield Yield Niger 4,7% 3,3% 3,6% Niger 9,7% 2,4% 492 Mali 3,7% 2,1% 2,8% Burkina Faso 4,2% NT 1 042 Burkina Faso 3,2% 2,2% 3,0% Gambia 3,3% NT 1 240 Cape-Verde NT NT 2,4% Mali 2,7% NT 1 152 Guinea Bissau NT NT 3,0% Guinea Bissau 1,4% 1,5% 1 200 Sénégal NT 1,6% 2,6% Sénégal -3,1% -1,1% 1 106 SAHEL 3,5% 2,3% 3,0% SAHEL NT -0,9% 939 Guinea 5,2% 0,1% 2,5% Ghana 10,6% 1,5% 1 354 Bénin 4,4% 1,8% 3,2% Sierra Leone 9,7% 1 028 Nigeria 4,1% NA 2,7% Nigeria 7,0% 1,4% 1 183 Togo 3,5% 2,9% 3,1% Guinea 7,0% 3,7% 1 446 Bénin 4,4% 1,9% 979 Ghana 2,5% 1,1% 2,4% Liberia 3,2% 609 Côte dIvoire 0,5% 4,1% 2,4% Togo 1,2% 1,8% 781 Liberia NT NT 4,0% Côte dIvoire 0,4% 0,4% 928 Sierra Leone NT -1,5% 2,3% ECOWAS 4,9% ECOWAS 3,8% 2,7% Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 31
  32. 32. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Production Trends Cassava – Average annual growth rate (1990-2007) Productio Maximal Yam- Average annual growth rate (1990-2007) PAYS n Yield Yield Sénégal 12,4% 6,8% 10 810 Maximal Guinea Bissau 7,5% -0,8% 16 663 Country production Yield Yield Niger 5,2% NA NA Sahel 8,5% 3,2% 14 364 Bénin 3,8% NT 13 067 Bénin 7,9% 3,5% 13 050 Côte Sierra Leone 6,4% -0,5% 5 990 dIvoire 3,3% 0,4% 8 882 Liberia 5,4% NT 6 909 Nigeria 3,2% 1,4% 13 284 Ghana 5,3% 1,5% 12 757 Ghana 2,9% NT 13 506 Guinea 3,9% 2,3% 8 025 Togo 2,9% -1,5% 7 787 Togo 2,6% 1,1% 10 997 Côte dIvoire 2,8% 1,3% 8 048 Coastal Nigeria 2,3% 0,8% 12 505 Countries without Coastal Countries Nigeria 3,8% NT 10 405 without Nigeria 5,0% 1,5% 10 479 ECOWAS without NIGERIA 5,1% 1,4% 10 484 ECOWAS 3,1% Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 32
  33. 33. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Cotton Production• Upward trends until 2004/2005 800 000• World market price drop 700 000• Liberalisation problems 600 000• Falling yields 500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 Bénin Burkina Faso Côte dIvoire MaliRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 33
  34. 34. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Irrigation60% 49.6%50% Developed area/total area cultivated developed cultivated area /total area cultivated40%30% 17.8% 18.0%20% 11.4% 6.8%10% 5.5% 4.2% 1.9% 3.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%0% Mali Senegal Togo Burkina Côte Nigeria Niger Benin Faso dIvoire 80% 68.5% 68.4% 70% 60% 41.4% 50% 44.6% 40% 31.5% 35.9% 30% 23.0% 15.7% 14.8% 20% 11.7% 10% 4.2% 0% o li na ire n r so al ria a e g ni g M ig a o o a e e ne T Iv h F N ig B G d e N a S in e rk ôtu CB Developed area/irrigable area cultivated developed area /developed area Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 34
  35. 35. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Meat and Fish Production Average Average annual annual Average per Fish Per growth Meat growth rate capita fish capita rate of Meat Per Per of Fish production Needs Meat capita capita Country production (kg) (kg PeriodCountr productio consumptio Needsy n n (kg) (kg) Period Sénégal 1,1% 43 29 1994-2007Mali 2,9% 16 20 1990-2006 SierraNiger 8,0% 14 15 1994-2007 Leone 28,4% 16 2002-2005 Mali -3,0% 9,4 8,0 1993-2005Sénégal 4,4% 10 19 1990-2007 Côte dIvoire 2,8% 8,0 2001-2005Nigeria 13,6% 8 1997-2007 Benin -1,2% 5,4 1995-2008Benin 3,7% 6 10 1997-2007BurkinaFaso 4,3% 5 12 1990-2006 Togo 5,1% 4 1990-2007CôtedIvoire PT 4 2001-2007 Burkina Faso 2,8% 0,7 2,0 1998-2008Ghana PT 3 2000-2007Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 35
  36. 36. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Poverty incidenceRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 36
  37. 37. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Poverty Trends Poverty trends between the last 2 surveys80%60%40%20% 0% Benin Ghana Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal (2006/2007) (1999/2006) (2001/2006) (2005/2008) (1996/2004) (2202/2006) initial ratio final ratio Poverty reduction rates between the last 2 surveys12%10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Benin Ghana Mali Niger Nigeria Senegal (2006/2007) (1999/2006) (2001/2006) (2005/2008) (1996/2004) (2202/2006) Poverty reduction rate MDG Target Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 37
  38. 38. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS StuntingRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 38
  39. 39. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Access to safe WaterRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 39
  40. 40. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Under 1 year Child MortalityRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 40
  41. 41. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Under 5 years Child MortalityRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 41
  42. 42. TRENDS IN AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS Maternal MortalityRegional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 42
  43. 43. CONCLUSIONS• Achievements – Building of a strong Partnership with ECOWAS and other regional and national Institutions in West Africa; – Moving the CAADP Agenda; – Establishing Country SAKSS; – Development of a platform to inform Progresses in agriculture and Livelihoods at national and regional levels.• Prospects: – Additional information needs have been widely identified => Regional studies to take into account the information gap to improve agricultural policy making and agricultural program design; – Dissemination of the generated information and data; – Effective Support to the national and regional CAADP M&E Systems through the establishment of Country ReSAKSS nodes.Regional Strategic Analysis aNA Knowledge Support System – West Africa Page 43
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