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MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM FOR THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (CAADP) BABATUNDE OMILOLACOORDINATOR, REGIONAL STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND KNOWLEDGE SUPPORT SYSTEM (RESAKSS) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI) 6TH CAADP PARTNERSHIP PLATFORM BIRCHWOOD HOTEL, JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA APRIL 21-23, 2010

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Outline• What is CAADP? – Principles – Processes and implementation• Why an overarching M&E System for CAADP?• Indicators to monitor and evaluate• Operationalizing the CAADP M&E Framework – Data collection, management and analysis – M&E outputs, formats and reporting – Roles and responsibilities of partners and collaborators in implementing CAADP M&E framework

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What is CAADP?• The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) is the African Union (AU)/New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) vision and strategy for the development of African agriculture.• CAADP puts agriculture at top of priorities of African countries• CAADP is African-owned and African-led

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CAADP Principles• Employ agriculture-led growth to achieve MDG1 of halving poverty and hunger by 2015• Pursuit of 6% average annual sector growth at national level• Allocation of 10% of national budgets to agriculture sector• Exploitation of regional complementarities and cooperation to boost growth• Policy efficiency, dialogue, review and accountability (evidence-based policymaking)• Partnerships and alliances to include farmers, agribusiness, civil society

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CAADP Process• The principles are achieved through: – the strategic functions of CAADP, – the guidance and involvement of the Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and – the national roundtable process• These activities surround four key pillars, led by Africa-based technical institutions: – Pillar 1: extending the area under sustainable land management (University of Zambia) – Pillar 2: Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacities for market access (Conference of Ministers of Agriculture of West and Central Africa (CMA/AOC)) – Pillar 3: Increasing food supply and reducing hunger (University of KwaZulu-Natal) – Pillar 4: Agricultural research, technology dissemination and adoption (Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA))

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Why an overarching M&E system for CAADP?• A mechanism by which processes put in place, commitments and investments made, performance of agriculture sector, and any changes in poverty, hunger and food and nutrition security are regularly and transparently measured against stated targets and, if necessary, can lead to the revision of processes, policies, investments and practices in order for CAADP to stay on track – Are countries achieving the targeted growth rates? (6%) – Are countries investing at the targeted level? (10%) – Are these investments having their intended impacts on poverty and hunger?• To bring cohesion across the different systems being developed to track specific components of CAADP, including the individual CAADP pillar M&E systems, APRM and MAF• To inform the review processes established by CAADP-PP (mutual, peer and progress reviews)• To further inform policy-making and dialogue

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Idea behind CAADP M&E framework Greater/better distributed poverty reduction & food and nutrition t a r security outcomes r n eOther factors a a p Accelerated agricultural growth & c l o Greater market access k y rOther factors i s t More enabling policies & n i i Greater/more efficient allocation of g s n agricultural investments gOther factors More effective National level 1 Processes 8 Roundtable 7 2 P4 P3 Regional level P2 Africa-wide level Global level P1 3 Early actions 6 4 Declarations Commitments 5 DecisionsPage 7

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Key questions for CAADP M&E• Delivering on commitments and achieving stated targets – Have commitments and targets been met so far?• Effectiveness of interventions (processes, policies, investments) – How effective have different types of interventions been in any achievements realized so far? What factors have shaped the achievements? – What are the trade-offs and complementarities, if any, among different types of interventions?• Consistency of planned interventions with initial targets – What are the projected impacts if interventions proceed as planned? – Are the projected impacts compatible with the CAADP targets? – If not, what adjustments are needed to get it on track?• Exploring better interventions – Could greater or better distributed impacts be obtained by reconfiguring the interventions? – What are the different interventions that can lead to these outcomes?Page 8

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Main challenge and achievements to date Main challenge – Need indicators that are standardized, consistent and measurable across different countries and regions for cross-country comparisons and learning• Main achievements – CAADP M&E working group established, beginning with a workshop at the AU (Addis Ababa, Dec 3-4, 2007) – Draft M&E framework developed and presented at CAADP PP meeting in Seychelles, March 2008 – Framework based on CAADP principles and economic theory to address issue of attribution/causality (i.e. inputs outputs outcomes impacts) – Developed data collection formats with which ReSAKSS nodes are working with network of partners to collect data on indicators – 5th CAADP PP in Abuja mandated that the draft M&E framework be validated, November 9-10, 2009 – M&E framework validated in collaboration with AU/NEPAD and other stakeholders in South Africa, March 1-3, 2010 – Revised version of the validated framework and implementation now ready Page 9 – First Comprehensive CAADP M&E report based on the framework now ready

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Indicators to monitor and evaluate• Input indicators: what is the overall level of effort invested? – CAADP processes, policies, institutions, investments, etc.• Output indicators: what is the level of provision, coverage, and utilization of services? – Access to infrastructure and services, adoption of technologies, etc.• Outcome indicators: what is the effect on outcomes that affect goals? – Yields, production, wages, prices, trade, etc.• Impact indicators: what is the ultimate effect on goals? – Growth, income, poverty, food security, hunger, etc.• Conditioning indicators: how confident are we that any observed changes is due to the intervention? – Total budgetary resources, climate, natural disasters, wars, etc.Page 10

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Input indicators: CAADP roundtable process Program Program Key Indicators: implementation scaling up and  Credible and relevant and M&E out, etc. evidence used in design of investment program National Focal Point appointed  Inclusive participation CAADP of stakeholders in Pillar 4 process Research & launched program design TechnologyRoundtable Pillar 3  Investment programconference Food security aligned with CAADP held & Steering & Pillar 2 Technical principles and targets compact Markets & trade signed Pillar 1 Committees  Investment program appointed Land & water technically reviewed management National compact  Mechanisms in place Cabinet memo developed & Stock taking discussed & for implementation and discussed and gap analysis approved M&E of the program completed Page 11

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Input indicators: enabling conditions (other processes, policies, institutions) Key Indicators: National Policy • Policies for private Gov’t Processes/Events Donors sector development CAADP, SWAP, MTEF, (property rights, access to Exp Reviews, Donor credit, contract enforcement, Private harmonization, licensing, competition, …) Others Sector Elections, Law, etc. • Policies on equity (access of poor and vulnerable groups to resources, markets, food, and nutrition) Regional Level Africa-wide level Global level • Governance (political Actors Process Actors Process Actors stability, accountability, Process government effectiveness,RECs, Reg. Summit, AU, Int’l Assembly G-8, G-20, Conventi regulatory quality, rule of law,Orgs., etc. Reviews, Orgs., etc. , Summit, WTO, etc. ons, etc. control of corruption) etc. etc. • Harmonized policies and strategies • Commitments met Page 12

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Input indicators: investments and disaggregation CAADP Sub-sector Agriculture Pillar Crops, livestock, Research, extension, 1, 2, 3, 4 fishery, forestryirrigation, input support, markets, ... Commodity Staples, traditional, Sector AGRICULTURAL high value, export, ... Agriculture, roads, & RELATED education, health, Other INVESTMENTS water & sanitation, ... Gender, socio- economic groups Space Province, district, Source Economic rural/urban, Agro- Government, Salaries, capital, ecology Donors, Private operations and Sector maintenance, …

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Output indicators: coverage and utilization of servicesInvestment / Provision / Utilization (e.g.) DisaggregationIntervention Coverage (e.g.)Research Number of Area under Commodity, gender, space technologies dev’d technologyExtension Extension-farmer Number of visits Gender, space ratio received per yearIrrigation Capacity of irrigation Area under irrigation Commodity, gender, space (irrigable area)Farm support Quantity of support Area under input Commodity, gender, spaceFeeder roads Length or density of Space roadsMarket Distance to nearest Share of output sold Commodity, gender, space marketPost harvest Capacity of storage Capacity utilized Commodity, gender, space…

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Outcome indicators: agricultural sector performance Production, trade and prices Sector growth and by: contribution to Growth returns to overall GDP by: sub-sector, commodity, space different types of investments by: Spacesub-sector, commodity, Sub-sector growth space AGRICULTURAL and contribution to SECTOR AgGDP by:Productivity of factors PERFORMANCE Space (land, labor, capital) and inputs by: Commodity growth,sub-sector, commodity, Use of factors (land, labor, contribution togender, socio-economic capital) and inputs by: AgGDP by: group, space sub-sector, commodity, gender, Space socio-economic group, Space

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Impact indicators Unit costs by: Returns to differenttypes of investments by: gender, socio- Distribution by: economic group,gender, socio-economic gender, socio- space group, space economic group, spaceReturns to sub-sector growth by: INCOME,gender, socio-economic POVERTY, Decomposition by: group, Space FOOD AND sector (agriculture, NUTRITION services, industry); sub-Returns to commodity sector (crops, livestock, growth by: SECURITY, fishery, forestry); HUNGER commodity (staples,gender, socio-economic group, Space high value, export, etc.)

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Operationalization of CAADP M&E Framework• Successful implementation of the CAADP M&E system ultimately depends on the extent to which sufficient information on the indicators and outputs can be generated on a regular basis and in a timely fashion consisting of: – Linked country level and regional teams, working under clearly defined roles and using shared data standards and protocols – standardization and harmonization of the core set of data and indicators across countries that will enable cross-country comparisons and contribute to peer and mutual reviews of CAADP at regional and continental levels – Regular collection, measurement, analysis, documentation and processing of data at national and regional levels – Roles and responsibilities of different partners at the national, regional, continental and international levels in terms of data collection, management, analysis, and reporting – Timely publication of these indicators and related monitoring reports

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CAADP M&E Minimum Core Set of IndicatorsProcess, policy or intervention area Indicator/DefinitionEnabling environment 1. Political and economic governance 1a. % of population satisfied with political governance by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age group; (iv) sector 1b. Macroeconomic management: (i) deficit to GDP; (ii),revenue to GDP; (iii) inflation rate; (iv) debt to GDP 2. Policies for private sector development 2a. Percent of population with access to agricultural and rural finance and credit 2b. Value of commercial loans for agricultural sector as % of: (i) value of total loans; (ii) AgGDPCAADP Country implementation process 3. Stage in county roundtable process and quality of participation 3a. Number of countries at major stages of the process 3b. Composition (e.g. institution, gender, expertise) of participantsCommitments and financing 4. Donor commitments and disbursements 4a. Total ODA commitments as % of AgGDP 4b. Share of ODA disbursed for (i) agricultural R&D; (ii) value chains; (iii) emergency food aid 5. Government spending and investment in Agricultural research and 5a. Expenditures on the agricultural sector as % of: (i) total government spending; (ii) AgGDP development 5b. Expenditures on agricultural R&D as % of AgGDP 6. Private sector investments 6a. Total investment in agricultural sector as % of AgGDP 6b. Total investment in agricultural value chains as % of AgGDPAgricultural sector performance 7. Capacity 7a. Number of professionals as per 1000 farmers 7b. Composition of professionals as % by: (i) gender; (ii) education attainment (PhD, MS, BS, Diploma, etc.) 8. Agricultural growth and sources of growth 8a. Percent of area or output under improved technologies: (i) improved genetic material; (ii) fertilizer; (iii) irrigation 8b. Productivity of major commodities (tone-equivalent per unit factor) 8c. Real AgGDP growth rate (%) 8d. % contribution to AgGDP growth of: (i) sub-sectors (crops, livestock, forestry, fishery); (ii) major commodities 9. Agricultural trade performance 9a. Value of total agricultural exports by: (i) as % of AgGDP; (ii) share of value-added in total exports; (iii) ratio to value of total agricultural imports; (iv) % contribution by sub-sectors and major commodities 9b. Domestic and export-import parity prices by major commoditiesCAADP goals 10. Poverty, hunger and food and nutrition security 10a. Poverty rate (P1) and gap (P2) by rural/urban 10b. Proportion of population below minimum dietary energy consumption (H1) by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age 10c. Nutrition diversity by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age

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Data collection, management and analysisKey question Tools DataDelivering on • Trends • National surveyscommitments • Simple correlations • Expert opinion surveysEffectiveness of • Econometric methods • National surveysinterventions • General equilibrium • Targeted surveys models • Expert opinion surveysConsistency • Simulation models • Assessment of effectivenesswith initial • Participatory • Expert opinion surveystargets approachesExploring better • Simulation models • Assessment of effectivenessinterventions • Participatory and consistency approaches • Expert opinion surveys Details in (www.resakss.org/publications/DiscussionP4&7.pdf)

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Methodology: delivering on commitments• Trends, situation, and simple correlation analyses to monitor progress (i.e. no attribution to interventions) – CAADP Roundtable process – Donor commitments – 10% government agricultural expenditure – 6% agricultural GDP growth – Halving poverty and hunger, etc.• Data – National household surveys, accounts, etc. – International public datasets (AfDB, World Bank, FAO, etc.) – Targeted surveys (CAADP national focal points) – Targeted expert opinion surveys – …Page 20

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Methodology: effectiveness of interventions (1)• Main challenge is attribution• Two complementary approaches – Before and after treatment • Baselines (2003, compact signed, program implemented) • Mid-term, end of project, long after project – With and without treatment • Treatment: direct beneficiaries; indirect beneficiaries through information/technology transfers, etc. • Controls: can only be affected through general equilibrium effects, e.g. prices, wages, etc.• For poverty (pov), impact of intervention (INV) measured by Average Treatment effect of the Treated (ATT): ATTj = Ej [ povbefore, j – povafter, j | INVj =1] – Ei [povbefore, i – povafter, i | INVi =0]Page 21

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Methodology: effectiveness of interventions (2)• Underlying relationships to be estimated – Intervention decision making and placement – Household access to and utilization of services due to intervention – Household production, marketing and consumption decisions• Techniques – Econometric methods (double-difference, instrumental variables, matching) to assess direct impacts (mid-term, end of project, long after project) – General equilibrium modeling to assess economy-wide impacts• Data – National surveys – Targeted household, market and other surveys to fill gaps – Expert opinion surveys – Case studies (selected countries and/or programs)Page 22

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Methodology: consistency with initial targets• Apply models developed for stocktaking and gap analysis• What are the projected impacts if interventions proceed as planned? – Use mid-term estimated ex-post impacts and parameters and growth patterns to project ex-ante impacts over period when target is expected to be achieved Are the projected impacts compatible with the CAADP targets? – Compare above ex-ante impacts with initial targets If not, what adjustments are needed to get it on track? – Use data and information from experts to identify plausible scenarios – Simulate impacts under different scenarios to reach initial targetsPage 23

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Methodology: exploring better interventions• Could greater or better distributed impacts be obtained by reconfiguring the interventions? – Even if interventions are consistent with the initial targets, can simulate impacts under different composition of investments to identify (in)efficiencies in implementation – Use estimated ex-post impacts and parameters from cross-country reviews and information from experts to identify plausible scenarios – Value of indicators associated with simulated impacts of the desirable scenarios can be used as guidelines to set new targets What are the different interventions that can lead to these outcomes? – Composition of investments associated with desirable scenarios from preceding analysisPage 24

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M&E outputs, formats and reporting• The primary output of the CAADP M&E system will be produced in the form of a report, which will be produced at the national, regional and Africa-wide levels on at least an annual basis and deal with addressing the issues of enabling environment and progress with delivery of commitments and achieving stated growth and poverty-reduction targets.• Widespread dissemination of the CAADP M&E outputs, as well as the data, tools, methods, and knowledge on agricultural and rural development in general, will be done through the ReSAKSS website (www.resakss.org)• Reporting mechanism to be institutionalized and implemented on regular basis (semi-annual, annual or bi-annual depending on indicator)• Various other media and presentations to review M&E information and results of analyses: – CAADP PP (Africa wide) – CAADP advisory councils (REC level) – ReSAKSS steering committee meetings (REC level) – Other regional- and country-level policy dialogues (Roundtables, etc)

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CAADP M&E: ReSAKSS Website www.resakss.org

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Roles and responsibilities of partners and collaborators in implementing CAADP M&E Framework

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Thank you.