Special Issues in the Administration of Economic Development
2 Comeback of the Elephants
1. Comeback of the Elephants!
Ivory Coast’s Renewal to Progress from the Black decade.
A Compilation by Hemal Mehta. (Oct’14).
2. The Comeback!
• Cote D’Ivoire is no longer a “fragile” State.
In 3 years, it has achieved a nearly double-digit growth rate, balanced the
budget and gotten debt under control. Combined with structural reforms, good
performances in strategic areas (infrastructure, agriculture, energy and social
sectors), supported by the NDP, have restored investor’s confidence. The fund
managers who snatched up US$ 750 million worth of bonds CI issued on the
international market in July were on to something. Trends are expected to
continue upward in next few years, allowing the country to increase the
inclusive character of its restored growth.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
3. Success of the Financial Markets.
• CI usually turns to WAEMU to close its budget gap, but this year the
country, feeling strong again tapped the euro zone’s financial market – and
overshot all expectations, raising US$ 750 Million instead of US$ 500 Million
initially sought!
• Investors in the USA accounted for half the total, Great Britain 39% and
Rest of Europe 9%.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
4. Restored Confidence
• In another sign of the international markets’ interest, the 10 year
remuneration rate is 5.62% - better then Kenya’s issue in 2013 (6.87%) and
Gabon (6.37%).
• Ivoirian Officials have every reason to rejoice over the strong interest shown
by the international financial community – and to stress that it confirms a
high level of investor confidence in the country’s economic growth and
prosperity prospects.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
5. High Growth Potential
The Economic recovery policy the government launched just after the
2011 political crisis quickly paid off and results will last!
• In July’14 Moody’s, the international financial ratings agency gave CI and it’s
bond issue a B1 positive outlook rating, followed by Fitch a few days later.
• Acting at request of CI Government, for the first time, it hailed the country’s
high potential growth rate and sound management of public accounts. The
debt and the budget deficit are under control.
• In early 2014 the World Bank took CI off its list of fragile low income states.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
6. Horizon 2020: The NDP gathers speed.
• With an annual economic growth rate of just under 10% for three years,
compared to less than 4% between 2004 and 2010 – it even dipped below
zero in 2011 – CI is one the region’s top students.
• That indicates a lot – West Africa is growing at a faster pace than any other
part of the continent (6.7% in 2013).
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
7. Massive Investment in Priority Sectors
• The CI Govt. has implemented a massive public investment policy in order
to achieve emerging nation status by 2020 as well as to increase national
wealth and to ensure that entire population benefits.
• With strong backing from International Community, investment, on target to
reach goals of NDP, has soared since 2012. In past 3 years it has risen an
avg. of 43% a year from 641.9 Billion FCFA in 2012 to 1.314 Trillion
forecast in 2014.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
8. • Private Investments, up by 28.7% and FDI have followed same pace.
• Investment spending nearly doubled from 16% of its budget in 2008 to 30%
in 2014.
• Private sectors include Agriculture, Agro Industry, Energy, Education,
Health and Infrastructure, especially roads – the same that the US$. 750
Million raised this year will support.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
Massive Investment in Priority Sectors
(Cont’d)
9. Support for Purchasing power, but Budget
Indicators are under control.
• Aware that the CFA Franc (XOF) does not stretch as far as it used to, the
Govt. raised the min. monthly wage from 36,607 FCFA to 60,000 FCFA.
• This Year, steps were taken to unfreeze civil servants pay which were blocked
since 1988.
• Those measures, the estimated cost of which is put at 82.5 billion FCFA for
2014, affect approx. 212,000 workers & retirees. Although expensive, they
will allow the State’s wage bill to comply with WAEMU standards (Must not
account for +35% of tax revenue) by 2019. Yet Budget Indicators are all
under control.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
10. Efficient, rigorous tax services
• Despite rising household spending (7.5%) fuelled by Govt. Policies to raise
wages, inflation remains at 2.7%, under the 3% limit set by WAEMU. The
Budget deficit is also likely to hold steady , around 2.3% forecast in 2014,
according to World Bank.
• State revenues have risen, thanks to reorganization of tax services.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
11. Debit is under control
• External Public debt which plummeted from 59% GDP in 2009 to 25% in
2012, should also remain under control.
• With support from IMF the Govt. has implemented and new internal and
external debt management strategy.
• The scenario of default that haunted CI during the 2011 post electoral crisis
for political reasons – the elected Government had no access to Central
Bank - has been definitively swept away.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
12. Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
CI in figures (GDP Composition).
13. CI in figures (% and % of GDP)
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
Particulars 2012 2013 2014 (Est.) 2015 (Forecast)
GDP Growth 9.8 8.8 9.1 9.2
Inflation 2 2.7 2.9 2.7
Budget revenues 20.8 22.3 22.4 22.5
O/w Tax Rev. 17.6 18 18.2 18.3
Budget Balance -2.6 -2 -2 -2
Budget of Trade 10.8 5.6 3.5 1.4
14. Looking forward…
• The success of the International markets confirms the high level of
confidence in country’s prosperity prospects.
• Today it is quite a different country that has raised funds on the international
financial markets, reaping US$ 250 Million more than amount sought.
Comeback of the Elephants - Hemal Mehta, October 2014
