A keynote presentation I delivered on August, 17, 2015 at the annual summit of the Missouri Association of Area Agencies on Aging (MA4). The session celebrated the Older Americans Act and then looked at how aging in America has changed from 1915 to 2035, with implications or AAAs.
4. 1915 % of pop. 65+ 4.48%
% of pop. 75+ 1.33%
life exp. at age 65 ~0
% of pop. on farms 32%
● Multi-generational households are the norm
● Far more likely to die at home with family
● Limited public support - e.g., benefit societies
● “Someday all this will be yours”
● 1912: Teddy Roosevelt proposes social
security
5. 1965 % of pop. 65+ 9.50%
% of pop. 75+ 3.38%
life exp. at age 65 15
% of pop. on farms 7%
● Multi-generational households still the norm
● 1960: Sun City opens
● Social Security well established, but many
elderly facing medical bankruptcy
● Scarce senior centers and community supports
● 1965: Older Americans Act creates first formal
structure - a national aging network
6. 2015 % of pop. 65+ 14.88%
% of pop. 75+ 6.30%
life exp. at age 65 20
% of pop. on farms 2%
● High cost of health care and long-term care
● Struggling “sandwich generation”
● Funding cuts, pressure on entitlements
● After hitting a low (12.1%) around 1980, multi-
generational families on the rise again
● Proliferation of technologies for older adults
● Focus on “aging in place” (Village model)
7. 2035 % of pop. 65+ 21.39%
% of pop. 75+ 11.09%
life exp. at age 65 35?
% of pop. on farms 2%
● New technologies for aging in place
● Other tech: 3D printing, nanotech, self-driving
cars, holographic communications, “Internet of
Things,” etc.
● Second round of health care reform complete
● Family caregiving the “norm”
● Boomers as dominant “older adult” cohort
10. Based on Carstensen, L. (2011), A Long Bright Future.
A Systems Lens: Redesigning the Life Course
Life Course 2.0
Life Course 1.0
Childhood
0 13 18 30 65 85
0 13 25 40 65 80 100
Adolescence
Young Adulthood
Productive Years
“Encore”
Retirement
11. A Systems Lens: Delinking Decline and Age
● If adulthood doesn’t even begin until 40, then why
am I an “older adult” at 50?
● Growing economic disparities
● Focus on “social determinants of health”
● Pressure for entitlement reform (means-testing)
● Administration on Aging is now the Administration
for Community Living
Conclusion: It’s not about “aging” anymore. It’s
about vulnerability (including disabilities) across the
life course, and helping people adjust to large-scale
change.
12. A Generational Lens
Four archetypes:
● “Hero” (G.I.)
● “Artist” (Silent)
● “Prophet” (Boomer)
● “Nomad” (Gen X)
Key points:
● OAA was passed by G.I.s
● G.I.s were the first “Heroes”
since Jefferson and Madison
● Millennials are “Heroes” too ⇒
great things to come!
Based on Strauss, W., and Howe, N. (1992). Generations.
13.
14. Scenario 1:
A Haven in
the Suburbs
Scenario 3:
A Village on a
Cloud
Scenario 2:
Aging in a
Hard Place
Scenario 4:
Keepers of
the Meaning
A Scenario Lens: Accounting for Uncertainty
Based on Planning for the Growth of the Older Adult Population in Howard County: A Framework
for Becoming an Age-Friendly Community, Howard County (Maryland) Department of Citizen
Services, 2015. See www.howardcountymd.gov/agingmasterplan.
15. A Scenario Lens: Accounting for Uncertainty
● Will communications technology bring us together
or keep us apart?
● Will retired Boomers serve society or serve
themselves?
● Will our political system reform (or transform) to
effectively address our shared challenges?
● Will funding for older adults keep pace with
demand?
● Will social isolation among older adults become
the social ill we can “wait out”?
● Will change happen fast enough?
17. Implications for Area Agencies on Aging
● The OAA is an important historical artifact.
● AAAs will be critical nodes on the future aging
network.
● There will be new nodes on that network (e.g.,
libraries, health systems, private sector).
● It’s not about aging; it’s about the vulnerable
elderly, and helping people adapt to change.
● Old ways of operating no longer sufficient.
● Very different landscape for older adults 20 years
from now, with new opportunities and challenges.
18. Eric Meade
Whole Mind Strategy Group, LLC
www.wholemindstrategy.com
eric@wholemindstrategy.com
571-201-5379
THANK YOU!