CO2 Emissions from Land Transport in India Scenarios of the Uncertain Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Global Metro Studies, UC Berkeley Precourt Institute, Stanford University with Ipsita Banerjee Dept of Civil Engineering Wei-Shiuen Ng Consultant Sponsored by the Japan International Transport Institute

Motorization in India: How Fast or Slow? Background The Scenarios Profound Data Problems Results Comparison of Input Assumptions Comparison of Output Results Discussion – What Scenarios Can Show Us Lessons and Opportunities for Clean Transport in India

Background

The Scenarios

Profound Data Problems

Results

Comparison of Input Assumptions

Comparison of Output Results

Discussion – What Scenarios Can Show Us

Lessons and Opportunities for Clean Transport in India

SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

Transport in India?

Asia: lumbering into modernity SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

Cheap Two Wheelers, but No Sidewalks The Peoples’ Car: Which People?

India Motorization Project Background EMBARQ , the World Resources Institute (WRI) Center for Sustainable Transport was approached by the Japan International Transport Institute (JITI) in early 2006 to review India’s motorization trends and challenges, and to suggest what policies and measures should be implemented to reduce transport CO 2 emissions. This project is one of four other country studies, consisting of China, Japan and the United States (US), all supported by JITI. A set of scenarios were developed, together with S. Menon, then of the World Bank, for future Indian urban road passenger transport in 2020 and 2030, where different assumptions are made for modal shares in each scenario. Each scenario illustrates energy use and CO 2 emissions for 2010, 2020 and 2030.

Background

EMBARQ , the World Resources Institute (WRI) Center for Sustainable Transport was approached by the Japan International Transport Institute (JITI) in early 2006 to review India’s motorization trends and challenges, and to suggest what policies and measures should be implemented to reduce transport CO 2 emissions.

This project is one of four other country studies, consisting of China, Japan and the United States (US), all supported by JITI.

A set of scenarios were developed, together with S. Menon, then of the World Bank, for future Indian urban road passenger transport in 2020 and 2030, where different assumptions are made for modal shares in each scenario.

Each scenario illustrates energy use and CO 2 emissions for 2010, 2020 and 2030.

India Motorization Project Objective This project aims to illustrate local criteria pollutant and CO 2 emissions from India’s growing transport sector using available reliable data, and to provide policies and measures that will prevent future undesirable consequences of motorization. Focus on CO 2 at the national level Goal is not to tell India what to do, rather to provide a tool to measure consequences of India’s choices

Objective

This project aims to illustrate local criteria pollutant and CO 2 emissions from India’s growing transport sector using available reliable data, and to provide policies and measures that will prevent future undesirable consequences of motorization.

Focus on CO 2 at the national level

Goal is not to tell India what to do, rather to provide a tool to measure consequences of India’s choices

Scenarios for India Illustrate and Quantify a World We Can’t See.. Yet Reasonable estimates for “present values” Growth in motorization on nearby example -- Korea Convergence with many other studies in the base case Quantitative Assumption-Driven Outputs Vehicles, vehicle distances, fuel consumption Impacts of alternative fuels Total CO 2 emissions Qualitative Results Flesh and bones on the base case Illustration of impact of “fuel efficiency” on total fuel use Illustration of how a “livable cities” scenario might play out

Illustrate and Quantify a World We Can’t See.. Yet

Reasonable estimates for “present values”

Growth in motorization on nearby example -- Korea

Convergence with many other studies in the base case

Quantitative Assumption-Driven Outputs

Vehicles, vehicle distances, fuel consumption

Impacts of alternative fuels

Total CO 2 emissions

Qualitative Results

Flesh and bones on the base case

Illustration of impact of “fuel efficiency” on total fuel use

Illustration of how a “livable cities” scenario might play out

BASIS OF APPROACH The ASIF Decomposition for Fuel and Emissions http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2000/flex2000.pdf Key Data Work by S. Menon, then World Bank

EMBARQ ’s Scenarios for India: Serious Data Problems Remain Careful Literature Search Assessment of meager data sources Main published works on long-term trends in transport and energy use Careful analysis of emission factor data Discussions with Indian Experts Approach authors of main studies (TERI, IIT Kanpur, etc) Exchange of experience estimating emission factors Pass-km “Data” from Central Govt. – very incomplete Own Attempts – Consensus Picture Manipulate vehicles, distances, fuel intensities Find combinations that multiply up to give “actual” fuel use Make plausible assumptions on emissions

Careful Literature Search

Assessment of meager data sources

Main published works on long-term trends in transport and energy use

Careful analysis of emission factor data

Discussions with Indian Experts

Approach authors of main studies (TERI, IIT Kanpur, etc)

Exchange of experience estimating emission factors

Pass-km “Data” from Central Govt. – very incomplete

Own Attempts – Consensus Picture

Manipulate vehicles, distances, fuel intensities

Find combinations that multiply up to give “actual” fuel use

Make plausible assumptions on emissions

Motorization Scenarios for India: S. Menon/ EMBARQ ’s Approach to Uncertainty How Many Motor Vehicles in India? Registration is one time; active stock uncertain Among cars, share of household vs state/company cars and taxis unknown Two wheeler stock even less well known Human and Vehicle Activity and Travel Vehicle usage and NMT data poor at national level Many good city surveys, but none at national level Pass-km “Data” from Central Govt. – very incomplete Fuel Use Until 1995/6, no official data on road diesel use Use of diesel by cars, gasoline by both cars and two wheelers adds big layer of uncertainty Fuel adulteration makes “official” data uncertain

How Many Motor Vehicles in India?

Registration is one time; active stock uncertain

Among cars, share of household vs state/company cars and taxis unknown

Two wheeler stock even less well known

Human and Vehicle Activity and Travel

Vehicle usage and NMT data poor at national level

Many good city surveys, but none at national level

Pass-km “Data” from Central Govt. – very incomplete

Fuel Use

Until 1995/6, no official data on road diesel use

Use of diesel by cars, gasoline by both cars and two wheelers adds big layer of uncertainty

Fuel adulteration makes “official” data uncertain

Motorization Scenarios for India: S. Menon/ EMBARQ ’s Assumptions Motor Vehicles and Activity Active car, two-wheeler stock perhaps 2/3 of registrations Yearly usage of private cars low -- 7500 km/year Large vehicle usage from various data sources Human and Vehicle Activity and Travel Large share of urban bus, intercity bus/rail Assume load factors to get car travel Fuel Use and Fuel Intensity (fuel/km) Car, two-wheeler fuel intensity from literature Some information on heavy vehicles Best estimates of possible improvements

Motor Vehicles and Activity

Active car, two-wheeler stock perhaps 2/3 of registrations

Yearly usage of private cars low -- 7500 km/year

Large vehicle usage from various data sources

Human and Vehicle Activity and Travel

Large share of urban bus, intercity bus/rail

Assume load factors to get car travel

Fuel Use and Fuel Intensity (fuel/km)

Car, two-wheeler fuel intensity from literature

Some information on heavy vehicles

Best estimates of possible improvements

EMBARQ ’s Scenarios for India: Why Do the Data Matter? Future of Road Transport Depend on the Numbers How much room is there on the roads? How much could car/two wheeler use grow? Is a transit plus 2/3-wheeler based system thinkable? Fuel Use In India – Quantitative Issues What is the quantitative scope for savings, substitution? Local emissions -- where are emerging clean-fuels markets? Transport as a constraint on fuel-use growth? Restraining Growth in Fuel Demand Impact of higher fuel prices important, but unknown Will mini-cars save fuel and space or just explode demand? Can advanced technology (hybrid cars, buses) matter?

Future of Road Transport Depend on the Numbers

How much room is there on the roads?

How much could car/two wheeler use grow?

Is a transit plus 2/3-wheeler based system thinkable?

Fuel Use In India – Quantitative Issues

What is the quantitative scope for savings, substitution?

Local emissions -- where are emerging clean-fuels markets?

Transport as a constraint on fuel-use growth?

Restraining Growth in Fuel Demand

Impact of higher fuel prices important, but unknown

Will mini-cars save fuel and space or just explode demand?

Can advanced technology (hybrid cars, buses) matter?

The Five India Transport Scenarios Business as usual (BAU) Energy efficiency Clean two and three wheelers Sustainable cities/Urban Transport (SUT) Extra Effort (#2 + #4) Evaluation of scenario results, particularly how overall mobility affects fuel demand and CO 2 emissions.

Business as usual (BAU)

Energy efficiency

Clean two and three wheelers

Sustainable cities/Urban Transport (SUT)

Extra Effort (#2 + #4)

Evaluation of scenario results,

particularly how overall mobility affects

fuel demand and CO 2 emissions.

Baseline Scenario Using a consensus of forecasts for population and GDP development, with Korea as a marker to measure motorization (cars/capita) as a function of GDP/capita Unconstrained development of road traffic and demand, driven by a booming economy and population growth, using extrapolation (and regardless of whether realistic) Vehicle growth will be unconstrained and no new fuel taxes are assumed, including other fiscal constraints The scenario will assume that energy, infrastructure and financial constraints do not hinder expansion of transport activities

Using a consensus of forecasts for population and GDP development, with Korea as a marker to measure motorization (cars/capita) as a function of GDP/capita

Unconstrained development of road traffic and demand, driven by a booming economy and population growth, using extrapolation (and regardless of whether realistic)

Vehicle growth will be unconstrained and no new fuel taxes are assumed, including other fiscal constraints

The scenario will assume that energy, infrastructure and financial constraints do not hinder expansion of transport activities

Energy Efficiency Reflects a policy focus aimed at oil saving and renewable fuels in all transport modes, in a world driven by energy security concerns Higher fuel prices and taxes – Japanese level? Estimates of vehicle fuel economy, fuel use, and the impact of fuel prices on substitution between two wheelers and buses to show a range of fuel and CO 2 savings that this path could bring about. Includes significant “1 lakh cars”.

Reflects a policy focus aimed at oil saving and renewable fuels in all transport modes, in a world driven by energy security concerns

Higher fuel prices and taxes – Japanese level?

Estimates of vehicle fuel economy, fuel use, and the impact of fuel prices on substitution between two wheelers and buses to show a range of fuel and CO 2 savings that this path could bring about. Includes significant “1 lakh cars”.

Clean Two and Three Wheelers Inspiration from Viet Nam Reflects a mobility scenario based on small, clean vehicles and stronger mass transit Recognizes the obvious difficulty India has building a car-friendly world, yet also recognizes that individual mobility cannot be contained, hence the push for clean, small vehicles Accelerates trend towards cleaner fuels and motors in Indian two and three-wheelers Four-wheeled cars fade as the promise for individual mobility in India, a situation aided by high taxes based on car power and size

Reflects a mobility scenario based on small, clean vehicles and stronger mass transit

Recognizes the obvious difficulty India has building a car-friendly world, yet also recognizes that individual mobility cannot be contained, hence the push for clean, small vehicles

Accelerates trend towards cleaner fuels and motors in Indian two and three-wheelers

Four-wheeled cars fade as the promise for individual mobility in India, a situation aided by high taxes based on car power and size

Sustainable Cities and Sustainable Urban Transport (SUT) Serious traffic congestion conditions in first three scenarios present a physical constraint that could decrease motor vehicle use and subsequently carbon emissions This fourth scenario reflects “prescient” policies aimed at avoiding or lifting urban infrastructure constraints through strong demand management and modern mass transit as the backbone of clean mobility – JNURM Urban bus and rail successfully rejuvenated to reduce two, three wheelers transport mode shares, but these modes (and NMT) feed mass transit Strong land-use and transport policy initiatives required to contain sprawl and need to travel

Serious traffic congestion conditions in first three scenarios present a physical constraint that could decrease motor vehicle use and subsequently carbon emissions

This fourth scenario reflects “prescient” policies aimed at avoiding or lifting urban infrastructure constraints through strong demand management and modern mass transit as the backbone of clean mobility – JNURM

Urban bus and rail successfully rejuvenated to reduce two, three wheelers transport mode shares, but these modes (and NMT) feed mass transit

Strong land-use and transport policy initiatives required to contain sprawl and need to travel

Extra Effort: Efficiency + Sustainable Urban Transport (SUT) Strong land-use and transport policy initiatives required to contain sprawl and need to travel – large, fast and powerful cars have little utility in such a setting Large cars lose their share to mini cars like Nano because of high fuel taxes and congestion charges Strong urban transport policies make driving and parking a normal car much more expensive than a mini car Two, Three and Four-Mini vehicles useful for connecting to a strong transit grid. Mini cars pass from being small to being efficient

Strong land-use and transport policy initiatives required to contain sprawl and need to travel – large, fast and powerful cars have little utility in such a setting

Large cars lose their share to mini cars like Nano because of high fuel taxes and congestion charges

Strong urban transport policies make driving and parking a normal car much more expensive than a mini car

Two, Three and Four-Mini vehicles useful for connecting to a strong transit grid.

Mini cars pass from being small to being efficient

Basic Driving Factors: GDP, Population

Vehicles Per Thousand People by Type

Per Capita Travel by Transport Mode Passenger-km per capita

Fuel Economy in BAU and EE Scenarios (1 mj/veh-km = 3.15 l/100 km = 80 gm/km)

Fuel Use By Mode and Fuel ( 1 EJ = 22.5 mtoe )

Total Fuel Use By Mode

Per Capita Fuel Use by Transport Mode (US 50 GJ; EU GJ/cap )

India: CO 2 Emissions by Transport Mode

Results: Some Comments BAU -- Simple Extrapolation Realistic? Huge energy use by 2030 Realistic? Compare China and Korea Self-consistent? Oil demands in India, China push up oil price Fuel Efficiency (Japanese fuel prices) Modest improvements along slow energy growth Much more possible – mini cars, hybrids Bio-diesel, ethanol could restrain CO 2 further Clean Two-three wheeler (policies) Small vehicles as basis for low-energy transport? Many infrastructure changes required now Experience in Hanoi suggests 2-wheeler world possible Sustainable Urban transport (strong policies) Requires huge change in direction of urban transport Requires huge change in treatment of NMT Above all, requires move away from individual vehicle

BAU -- Simple Extrapolation Realistic?

Huge energy use by 2030

Realistic? Compare China and Korea

Self-consistent? Oil demands in India, China push up oil price

Fuel Efficiency (Japanese fuel prices)

Modest improvements along slow energy growth

Much more possible – mini cars, hybrids

Bio-diesel, ethanol could restrain CO 2 further

Clean Two-three wheeler (policies)

Small vehicles as basis for low-energy transport?

Many infrastructure changes required now

Experience in Hanoi suggests 2-wheeler world possible

Sustainable Urban transport (strong policies)

Requires huge change in direction of urban transport

Requires huge change in treatment of NMT

Above all, requires move away from individual vehicle

Nano or Nono in Extra Effort? Opportunity or Threat Mini Cars – Step up for 2 wheels? Small and fuel economic, not necessarily fuel efficient Have been around for a long time in Japan, even EU Could be powered on any source (except hot air) The Broader Context - Urban streets clogged, urban air polluted Urban transit systems (where they exist) under siege Majority of travelers “outdoors” –at risk to accidents, bad air Strong Urban Transport Policies Charge for congestion and parking by vehicle size Greater priority to non-motorized requires slower motorized Good transit grid offers opportunities to mini cars Is Nano a Step Back from Large Cars or Step up from TW? Are Urban Authorities and Policies Ready?

Mini Cars – Step up for 2 wheels?

Small and fuel economic, not necessarily fuel efficient

Have been around for a long time in Japan, even EU

Could be powered on any source (except hot air)

The Broader Context -

Urban streets clogged, urban air polluted

Urban transit systems (where they exist) under siege

Majority of travelers “outdoors” –at risk to accidents, bad air

Strong Urban Transport Policies

Charge for congestion and parking by vehicle size

Greater priority to non-motorized requires slower motorized

Good transit grid offers opportunities to mini cars

Opportunities for CO 2 reduction? India Can Avoid Problems – but almost too late Vehicle Side Technology- safe, small cars Vehicle Choice- size matters Vehicle usage –SUT assumes congestion charges Fuel Side Bio-diesel and alcohols have some promise, but ?? CNG lends savings, but India not a gas producer Fuel cells or methanol from coal + sequestration??? Transport Policy Side: Best Bet Long term look with options analyses, land use Greatly improved urban bus systems/BRT Metro only where income, pop. density justifies

Vehicle Side

Technology- safe, small cars

Vehicle Choice- size matters

Vehicle usage –SUT assumes congestion charges

Fuel Side

Bio-diesel and alcohols have some promise, but ??

CNG lends savings, but India not a gas producer

Fuel cells or methanol from coal + sequestration???

Transport Policy Side: Best Bet

Long term look with options analyses, land use

Greatly improved urban bus systems/BRT

Metro only where income, pop. density justifies

Humble Policy Suggestions: Its Already Bad: Need it get Worse? Urban Transport Policies First Sidewalks and NMT lanes, access to transit Exclusive lanes for 2Wheelers and Transit Congestion and parking fees based on footprint? Fuel Economy Standards in Context Keep cars, small, efficient, and clean Small may give more choices for non-oil Must raise diesel to parity, raise all fuel prices Don’t Forget Development Policies Development must not ignore non-motorized Improve in-town access before boosting out of town “campuses” Create greater integration between three-wheelers and large transit

Urban Transport Policies First

Sidewalks and NMT lanes, access to transit

Exclusive lanes for 2Wheelers and Transit

Congestion and parking fees based on footprint?

Fuel Economy Standards in Context

Keep cars, small, efficient, and clean

Small may give more choices for non-oil

Must raise diesel to parity, raise all fuel prices

Don’t Forget Development Policies

Development must not ignore non-motorized

Improve in-town access before boosting out of town “campuses”

Create greater integration between three-wheelers and large transit

Conclusion Not Emitting in First Place Easier than Changing If No Interventions Urban transport itself headed for collapse Little relief from flyover farms or metro mania Once problems become recognized, its too late Modest Interventions Fuel efficiency has impact on CO 2 , but not transport Air pollution can be reduce nevertheless Aggressive Interventions Now! Serious Urban Transport: Priority to buses, NMT Taxes on car ownership and use, fuel consumptin Strong fuel economy standards National and Local Govt., Indian Supreme Court, NGOs, etc all b Could Bring Pressure to Bear to Force Strong Interventions

If No Interventions

Urban transport itself headed for collapse

Little relief from flyover farms or metro mania

Once problems become recognized, its too late

Modest Interventions

Fuel efficiency has impact on CO 2 , but not transport

Air pollution can be reduce nevertheless

Aggressive Interventions Now!

Serious Urban Transport: Priority to buses, NMT

Taxes on car ownership and use, fuel consumptin

Strong fuel economy standards

Thank You Lee Schipper [email_address] [email_address]