1. RISK MANAGEMENT STEP BY STEP IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR PROJECTS.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.

2. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
RISKMANAGEMENTOFPROJECTSACTSONTHEUNCERTAINTIESWITHTHEOBJECTIVEOFINCREASINGTHEPROBABILITYANDTHEIMPACTOFPOSITIVEEVENTS,THEOPPORTUNITIES.ANDREDUCINGTHEPROBABILITYANDTHEIMPACTOFNEGATIVEEVENTS,THETHREATS.
INOTHERWORDSMANAGINGRISKSINCLUDESTHEPROCESSESNECESSARYTOCONTROLPREDICTABLEEVENTSINFAVOROFTHEPROJECT’SSUCCESS.CERTAINSTEPSAREIMPORTANTFORASUCCESSFULRISKMANAGEMENT.
THISMETHODOLOGYISAPPLIEDBYINSURANCECOMPANIESWHICHCALCULATETHEEXPECTEDVALUEOFRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHCONTRACTS,INORDERTODETERMINETHEPREMIUMTOBEPAIDBYANINSUREDPARTY.THEADVANTAGEINTHISISTHAT,WHENWEMANAGEOUROWNRISKS, WEHAVETHEPOWERNOTONLYTOIDENTIFYANDQUANTIFYTHEM,BUTALSOTODIRECTTHEMINFAVOROFOURINTERESTS.
THEAPPLICATIONOFSUCHKNOWLEDGEMAKESDECISIONMAKINGMORESAFE,GUIDESACTIONSDURINGTHEPROJECT,INCREASESTHECOMPANY’SCOMPETITIVENESS,ANDTURNSUNCERTAINEVENTSINTOPROFITOPPORTUNITIES.

3. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
THERISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSESINPROJECTSGUIDETHEPLANNING,IDENTIFICATION, ANALYSIS,RESPONSEPLANNING,MONITORINGANDCONTROLOFRISKS.
THISMETHODLOGYMUSTBEAPPLIEDSTEPBYSTEPANDHAVETHECOOLABORATIONOFANEXPERTOPINIONINORDERTOUSEALLITSINFLUENCEPOWEROVERTHEPROJECT.
THEEXPERTOPINIONISAPPLIEDONALLTECHNICALDETAILSANDMAYBEPROVIDEDBYANYGROUPORPERSONWITHSPECIALIZEDKNOWLEDGEORTRAINING,ANDISAVAILABLETHROUGHSEVERALDIFFERENTSOURCES
KNOWLEDGEONTHEREGIONALSCENARIO,METHODOLOGIESFORPROJECTMANAGEMENTANDEXPERIENCEINCIVILCONSTRUCTIONPROJECTSAREFUNDAMENTALTOAWAKETHEFACTORBEHINDASUCCESSFULRISKMANAGEMENT.
KNOWLEDGEMANAGEMENTVIAACOLLECTIONANDDISTRIBUTIONSYSTEMFORTHELESSONSLEARNEDISDIRECTLYRELATEDWITHTHEMATURITYOFACOMPANYINDEALINGWITHUNCERTAINTIESANDEXPLORINGTHEBENEFITSBYMANIPULATINGEVENTSTOYOURFAVOR.

4. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IDENTIFYRISKS
THEIDENTIFICATIONOFRISKSISTHEFIRSTSTEPTOWARDTHEMANAGEMENTOFUNCERTAINTIES,ALISTOFTHREATSANDALISTOFOPPORTUNITIESMUSTBEPREPARED,INDICATINGTHEROOTCAUSE,THEFOCUSOFTHEPROBABILITY,ANDTHEEFFECTOFTHERISKANDTHEFOCUSOFTHEIMPACT.
Threats
Cause
Effect
High level of outsourcing
Low quality and reworks
Parallelism between projects and performance
Error on the performance
Labor claims
Costs with claims and indemnifications
Low performance of structural inputs
need for reinforcement of the structure
Initial services performed by another company
Buffer or Gap of scope
Inflation above expectations
Increase of price of materials and labor
Competition for labor
Increase of costs with labor
Work-related accidents
Indemnifications and leaves of absence
Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
Problems after delivery of the product
Provision of warranty
Ignoring risks
Lack of influence on the threats
Robbery and/or theft
Associated losses
Default
Financial Cost
Pending approvals and regularizations
Changes

5. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IDENTIFYRISKS
THEIDENTIFICATIONOFRISKSISTHEFIRSTSTEPTOWARDTHEMANAGEMENTOFUNCERTAINTIES,ALISTOFTHREATSANDALISTOFOPPORTUNITIESMUSTBEPREPARED,INDICATINGTHEROOTCAUSE,THEFOCUSOFTHEPROBABILITY,ANDTHEEFFECTOFTHERISKANDTHEFOCUSOFTHEIMPACT.
Opportunities
Cause
Effect
Outsourcing
Reduction of charges
Volume of purchases
Increase of the power of negotiation
Proximity with city districts that supply the MDO
Reduction of cost with transport vouchers

6. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IDENTIFYRISKS
THISPROCESSISINTERACTIVEANDCONTINUESTOOCCURDURINGTHEENTIRELIFECYCLEOFTHEPROJECT,NEWRISKSMAYBEIDENTIFIEDANDRANKEDASTHEYARENOTICEDBYTHETEAM.
FURTHERAHEADWESHALLSEEHOWTHESERISKSNOTIDENTIFIEDATTHEBEGINNINGMAYBECONSIDEREDFORTHEDETERMINATIONOFTHEEXPECTEDVALUEOFTHERISKSWITHOUTBURDENINGTHEINITIALEXPECTATIONUNDERWHICHTHEPROJECTWASAPPROVED.

7. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
THEQUALITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKSCONSISTSOFASSESSINGTHEPROBABILITYANDTHEIMPACTOFTHERISKSFORTHEDETERMINATIONOFTHELEVELOFEACHRISKBYTHEMULTIPLYINGFACTOROFPROB.XIMPACT.
LOWERLEVELRISKSMAYBECONSIDEREDFALSEANDDOCUMENTED,ACCORDINGTOTHERISKTOLERANCEPOLICYOFTHECOMPANY.MORERELEVANTRISKS,ONTHEOTHERHAND,ARERANKEDINORDERTOGUIDEITSMANAGEMENT.
Risk Analysis
Context
Level of Risk (GR)
0.90
Very High
GR>0.1
TRUE
0.70
High
GR<0.1
FALSE
0.50
Medium
0.30
Low
0.10
Very Low

8. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
THEDEFINITIONOFTHELEVELSOFPROBABILITYANDIMPACTREDUCETHEBIASINPRIORIZINGTHERISKSANDTHEIRANALYSISALLOWSTOASSESSTHEIMPORTANCEOFEACHRISKONTHEPROJECT.
Threats
Number
Cause
Effect
Probab.
Impact
Level of Risk
Validation
1
High level of outsourcing
Low quality and reworks
0.90
0.50
0.45
TRUE
2
Parallelism between projects and performance
Error on the performance
0.90
0.30
0.27
TRUE
3
Labor claims
Costs with claims and indemnifications
0.70
0.30
0.21
TRUE
4
Low performance of structural inputs
need for reinforcement of the structure
0.50
0.50
0.25
TRUE
5
Initial services performed by another company
Buffer or Gap of scope
0.50
0.30
0.15
TRUE
6
Inflation above expectations
Increase of price of materials and labor
0.50
0.70
0.35
TRUE
7
Competition for labor
Increase of costs with labor
0.70
0.50
0.35
TRUE
8
Work-related accidents
Indemnifications and leaves of absence
0.70
0.50
0.35
TRUE
9
Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
0.70
0.50
0.35
TRUE
10
Problems after delivery of the product
Provision of warranty
0.70
0.30
0.21
TRUE
11
Ignoring risks
Lack of influence on the threats
0.10
0.90
0.09
FALSE
12
Robbery and/or theft
Associated losses
0.30
0.30
0.09
FALSE
13
Default
Financial Cost
0.10
0.30
0.03
FALSE
14
Pending approvals and regularizations
Changes
0.30
0.30
0.09
FALSE
15
-
FALSE

9. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
THEDEFINITIONOFTHELEVELSOFPROBABILITYANDIMPACTREDUCETHEBIASINPRIORIZINGTHERISKSANDTHEIRANALYSISALLOWSTOASSESSTHEIMPORTANCEOFEACHRISKONTHEPROJECT.
Opportunities
Number
Cause
Effect
Probab.
Impact
Level of Risk
Validation
1
Outsourcing
Reduction of charges
0.50
0.50
0.25
TRUE
2
Volume of purchases
Increase of the power of negotiation
0.70
0.50
0.35
TRUE
3
Proximity with city districts that provide the MDO
Reduction of costs with transport vouchers
0.90
0.30
0.27
TRUE
4
-
FALSE
5
-
FALSE
6
-
FALSE
7
-
FALSE
8
-
FALSE
9
-
FALSE
10
-
FALSE
11
-
FALSE
12
-
FALSE
13
-
FALSE
14
-
FALSE
15
-
FALSE

10. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
DURINGTHISPROCESSWEMAYALSOSEPARATETHERISKSINGROUPSDEFINEDBYCATEGORIESOFSIMILARCAUSEOREFFECT,OREVENTUNETHEPRIORITIZINGBYCOMPARINGTHERISKSINPAIRS,INORDERTODETERMINETHEPRIORITYBETWEENTHEPAIRS.
INTHEEXAMPLEBELOW,THELASTRISKMARKEDISCONSIDEREDASTHEMOSTIMPORTANTANDSHALLBEPRIORITIZED,ASWELLASTHECATEGORY0001RELATEDWITHLABORISTHEONEWITHTHELARGESTNUMBEROFRISKSIDENTIFIEDANDSHALLHAVEANACTIONPLANINTEGRATEDTOIT.

11. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUANTITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
AQUANTITATIVEANALYSISCONSISTSOFANALYZINGTHERISKSNUMERICALLY.FROMTHEIDENTIFICATION,RANKING(CLASSIFICATION)ANDPRIORITIZINGOFTHERISKSMADEDURINGTHEQUALITATIVEANALYSIS,WEDEFINETHEIMPACTSMATHEMATICALLYONTHEACTIVITIESANDRESOURCESIMPACTEDBYTHERISK,CALCULATINGTHEEXPECTEDVALUEINDIVIDUALLYFORARISKORASSESSINGTHEEFFECTOFTHEADDEDRISKSONTHEPROJECT.
EXPECTEDVALUE=PROBABILITYXIMPACT.
Threats
Number
Cause
Effect
Probab.
Impact
Expected Value
1
High level of outsourcing
Low quality and reworks
90.00%
R$ 1,140.392.56
R$ 1,026,353.30
2
parallelism between projects and performance
Error on the performance
90.00%
R$ 346,583.92
R$ 311,925.53
3
Labor claims
Costs with claims and indemnifications
70.00%
R$ 337,359.64
R$ 236,151.75
4
Low performance of structural inputs
need for reinforcement of the structure
50.00%
R$ 456,157.02
R$ 228,078.51
5
Initial services performed by another company
Buffer or Gap of scope
50.00%
R$ 114,039.26
R$ 57,019.63
6
Inflation above expectations
Increase of price of materials and labor
50.00%
R$ 1,732,919.60
R$ 866,459.80
7
Competition for labor
Increase of costs with labor
70.00%
R$ 1,346,015.46
R$ 942,210.82
8
Work-related accidents
Indemnifications and leaves of absence
70.00%
R$ 432,503.64
R$ 302,752.55
9
Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
70.00%
R$ 479,087.53
R$ 335,361.27
10
Problems after delivery of the product
Provision of warranty
70.00%
R$ 558,566.29
R$ 390.996.40
Total
R$ (6,943,624.91)
R$ (4,697,309.56)

12. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUANTITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
AQUANTITATIVEANALYSISCONSISTSOFANALYZINGTHERISKSNUMERICALLY.FROMTHEIDENTIFICATION,RANKING(CLASSIFICATION)ANDPRIORITIZINGOFTHERISKSMADEDURINGTHEQUALITATIVEANALYSIS,WEDEFINETHEIMPACTSMATHEMATICALLYONTHEACTIVITIESANDRESOURCESIMPACTEDBYTHERISK,CALCULATINGTHEEXPECTEDVALUEINDIVIDUALLYFORARISKORASSESSINGTHEEFFECTOFTHEADDEDRISKSONTHEPROJECT.
EXPECTEDVALUE=PROBABILITYXIMPACT.
Opportunities
Number
Cause
Effect
Probab.
Impact
Expected Value
1
Outsourcing
Reduction of charges
50.00%
R$ 1,265,098.67
R$ 632,549.33
2
Volume of purchases
Increase of the power of negotiation
70.00%
R$ 553,735.08
R$ 387,614.56
3
Proximity with city districts that supply the MDO
Reduction of costs with transport vouchers
90.00%
R$ 421,699.56
R$ 379,529.60
Total
R$ 2,240.533.30
R$ 1,399,693.49

13. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUANTITATIVEANALYSISOFTHERISKS
THEEFFECTOFTHERISKSADDEDTOTHEPROJECTDETERMINETHEEXPECTEDVALUEOFTHEPROJECTWITHRISKS.
EXPECTEDVALUEOFTHEPROJECTWITHRISKS=BASEVALUEOFTHEWORK+THREATS+ OPPORTUNITIES.
ATTHISTIME,ITISALSOPOSSIBLETODETERMINETHEEXPECTEDVALUEINTHEBESTCASE(CONSIDERINGTHATONLYTHEOPPORTUNITIESOCCUR),ASWELLASTHEEXPECTEDVALUEINTHEWORSTCASE(CONSIDERINGTHATTHETHREATSSHALLOCCURANDTHEOPPORTUNITIESSHALLNOT).
Expected value Pre-reaction
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work
R$ 34,658,391.90
Risks -Threats
R$ (4,697,309.56)
Risks -Opportunities
R$ 1,399,693.49
Expected Value of the Project (with Risks)
R$ 37,956,007.97
Expected Value -Best Case
R$ 32,417,858.60
Expected Value -Worst Case
R$ 41,602,016.82

14. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA. PLANTHERESPONSETORISKSITISFROMTHISPOINTONTHATTHEPMOBEGINSINTERFERINGONTHEEVENTSANDIMPACTSOFTHERISKS.THEPRECISEIDENTIFICATIONWASFUNDAMENTALTOBEGINTHISPHASEWITHPARAMETERSTODECIDEONTHEFUTUREOFTHEPROJECT. WHATSTRATEGYSHALLWEUSEFOREACHRISK?ISTHEREAREACTIONTOTHERISK?WHATISTHEBENEFIT/COSTOFTHATREACTION?WHENMUSTITBETAKENANDBYWHOM? THEREARE04BASICSTRATEGIESTORESPONDTOTHERISKS,NAMELY;
-ELIMINATEORPROVOKE=TAKETHEPROBABILITYTO0%OR100%FORTHREATSOROPPORTUNITIESRESPECTIVELY.
-TRANSFERORSHARE=OUTSOURCETHEIMPACTORTHEACTIONFORTHREATSOROPPORTUNITIESRESPECTIVELY.
-MITIGATEORLEVERAGE=REDUCEORINCREASETHEPROBABILITYAND/ORTHEIMPACTFORTHREATSOROPPORTUNITIESRESPECTIVELY.
-ACCEPT=WHENTHECOSTBENEFITOFTHEREACTIONISNOTJUSTIFIABLEANDTHERISKISTHENACCEPTEDANDMONITORED.

15. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLANTHERESPONSETORISKS
AGIVENREACTIONMAYBEALSORANKEDASCONTAINMENTORCONTINGENCY,I.E.,CONTAINMENTFORREACTIONSMADEREGARDLESSOFTHEEVENTOFRISKOCCURRINGORNOTANDTHECONTINGENCYFORREACTIONSTHATAREPERFORMEDASTHEEVENTSOFRISKTAKEPLACE.
Reaction -Containment or Contingency for the Risk -Threats
Cause
Effect
Expected Value
Moment
Strategy.
Probab.
Impact
1
High level of outsourcing
Low quality and reworks
1,026,353.30
Contingency
Mitigate
90.00%
1,140.392.56
2
Parallelism between projects and performance
Error on the performance
311,925.53
Contingency
Mitigate
90.00%
346,583.92
3
Labor claims
Costs with claims and indemnifications
236,151.75
Contingency
Mitigate
70.00%
337,359.64
4
Low performance of structural inputs
need for reinforcement of the structure
228,078.51
Contingency
Transfer
50.00%
456,157.02
5
Initial services performed by another company
Buffer or Gap of scope
57,019.63
Containment
Accept
50.00%
114,039.26
6
Inflation above expectations
Increase of price of materials and labor
866,459.80
Contingency
Mitigate
50.00%
1,732,919.60
7
Competition for labor
Increase of costs with labor
942,210.82
Contingency
Mitigate
70.00%
1,346,015.46
8
Work-related accidents
Indemnifications and leaves of absence
302,752.55
Contingency
Mitigate
70.00%
432,503.64
9
Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
335,361.27
Contingency
Mitigate
70.00%
479,087.53
10
Problems after delivery of the product
Provision of warranty
390.996.40
Containment
Mitigate
70.00%
558,566.29
11
Ignoring risks
Lack of influence on the threats
-
Contingency
Transfer
10.00%
-
(4,697,309.56)
(6,943,624.91)

16. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLANTHERESPONSETORISKS
ASREACTIONSDEVEMBELISTADASANDOSCUSTOASSOCIADOSAELASDEVEMBECALCULADOS.
Reaction -Containment or Contingency for the Risk -Threats
Cause
Effect
Expected Value
Reaction
Moment
Strategy.
$ Reaction
Probab.
Impact
1
High level of outsourcing
Low quality and reworks
1,026,353,30
Quality/Contract Control
Contingency
Mitigate
75,000.00
90.00%
30.00%
1,140.392,56
2
Parallelism between projects and performance
Error on the performance
311,925,53
Compatibility of Project
Contingency
Mitigate
30,000.00
90.00%
30.00%
346,583,92
3
Labor claims
Costs with claims and indemnifications
236,151,75
3rd Party Document Control
Contingency
Mitigate
90,000.00
70.00%
30.00%
337,359,64
4
Low performance of structural inputs
need for reinforcement of the structure
228,078,51
Performance Clause
Contingency
Transfer
10,000.00
50.00%
10.00%
456,157,02
5
Initial services performed by another company
Buffer or Gap of scope
57,019,63
Accept
Containment
Accept
-
50.00%
50.00%
114,039,26
6
Inflation above expectations
Increase of price of materials and labor
866,459,80
Anticipated purchase
Contingency
Mitigate
-
50.00%
30.00%
1,732,919,60
7
Competition for labor
Increase of costs with labor
942,210.82
Labor Fidelity
Contingency
Mitigate
150,000.00
70.00%
30.00%
1,346,015,46
8
Work-related accidents
Indemnifications and leaves of absence
302,752,55
Safety Technician
Contingency
Mitigate
135,000.00
70.00%
10.00%
432,503,64
9
Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
335,361,27
Fund raising agencies
Contingency
Mitigate
30,000.00
70.00%
10.00%
479,087,53
10
Problems after delivery of the product
Provision of warranty
390.996,40
Quality/Contract Control
Containment
Mitigate
75,000.00
70.00%
30.00%
558,566,29
11
Ignoring risks
Lack of influence on the threats
-
Net Premium
Contingency
Transfer
200,000.00
10.00%
0.00%
-
(4,697,309,56)
595,000.00
(6,943,624,91)

17. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLANTHERESPONSETORISKS
SINCETHEREACTIONSINTERFEREINTHEFUTUREOFTHERISKS,ONMUSTDETERMINENEXTTHENEWNOVOEXPECTEDVALUEOFTHERISKSANDCOMPAREITTOTHEEXPECTEDVALUEPRE- REACTION.
Reaction -Containment or Contingency for the Risk -Threats
Cause
Effect
Expected Value
Reaction
Moment
Strategy.
$ Reaction
Probab.
New Probab.
Impact
New E.V.
1
High level of outsourcing
Low quality and reworks
1,026,353.30
Quality/Contract Control
Contingency
Mitigate
75,000.00
90.00%
30.00%
1,140,392.56
342,117,77
2
Parallelism between projects and performance
Error on the performance
311,925.53
Compatibility of Project
Contingency
Mitigate
30,000.00
90.00%
30.00%
346,583.92
103,975,.8
3
Labor claims
Costs with claims and indemnifications
236,151.75
3rd Party Document Control
Contingency
Mitigate
90,000.00
70.00%
30.00%
337,359.64
101,207.89
4
Low performance of structural inputs
need for reinforcement of the structure
228,078.51
Performance Clause
Contingency
Transfer
10,000.00
50.00%
10.00%
456,157.02
45,615.70
5
Initial services performed by another company
Buffer or Gap of scope
57,019.63
Accept
Containment
Accept
-
50.00%
50.00%
114,039.26
57,019.63
6
Inflation above expectations
Increase of price of materials and labor
866,459.80
Anticipated purchase
Contingency
Mitigate
-
50.00%
30.00%
1,732,919.60
519,875.88
7
Competition for labor
Increase of costs with labor
942,210.82
Labor Fidelity
Contingency
Mitigate
150,000.00
70.00%
30.00%
1,346,015.46
403,804.64
8
Work-related accidents
Indemnifications and leaves of absence
302,752.55
Safety Technician
Contingency
Mitigate
135,000.00
70.00%
10.00%
432,503.64
43,250.36
9
Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
335,361.27
Fund raising agencies
Contingency
Mitigate
30,000.00
70.00%
10.00%
479,087.53
47,908.75
10
Problems after delivery of the product
Provision of warranty
390.996.40
Quality/Contract Control
Containment
Mitigate
75,000.00
70.00%
30.00%
558,566.29
167,569.89
11
Ignoring risks
Lack of influence on the threats
-
Net Premium
Contingency
Transfer
200,000.00
10.00%
0.00%
-
-
(4,697,309,56)
595,000.00
(6,943,624.91)
(1,832,345.69)

18. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
Post-reaction expected value
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work
R$ 34,658,391,90
Cost of reaction of threats
R$ 595,000.00
Cost of reaction of opportunities
R$ -
New Base Value of the Work
R$ 35,253,391.90
Risks -Threats
R$ (1,832,345.69)
Risks -Opportunities
R$ 1,399,693.49
Management Reserves
R$ -
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (POST-REACTION)
R$ 35,686,044.10
Expected Value -Best Case (Improbable)
R$ 33,012,858.60
Expected Value -Worst Case (Improbable)
R$ 42,197,016.82
Expected Value -Best Case (Probable)
R$ 33,853,698.41
Expected Value -Worst Case (Probable)
R$ 37,085,737.59
Risk Differential Improbable Worst Case
R$ 7,538,624.91
Risk Differential Probable Worst Case
R$ 2,427,345.69
Most Probable Risk Differential
R$ 1,027,652.20
Risk Differential Probable Best Case
R$ (804,693.49)
Risk Differential Improbable Best Case
R$ (1,645,533.30)
Pre-reaction expected value
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work
R$ 34,658,391.90
Risks -Threats
R$ (4,697,309.56)
Risks -Opportunities
R$ 1,399,693.49
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (PRE-REACTION)
R$ 37,956,007.97
Expected Value -Best Case
R$ 32,417,858.60
Expected Value -Worst Case
R$ 41,602,016.82

19. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
Expected value Post-reaction
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work
R$ 34,658,391.90
Cost of reaction of threats
R$ 595,000.00
Cost of reaction of opportunities
R$ -
New Base Value of the Work
R$ 35,253,391.90
Risks -Threats
R$ (1,832,345.69)
Risks -Opportunities
R$ 1,399,693.49
Management Reserves
R$ -
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (POST-REACTION)
R$ 35,686,044.10
Expected Value -Best Case (Improbable)
R$ 33,012,858.60
Expected Value -Worst Case (Improbable)
R$ 42,197,016.82
Expected Value -Best Case (Probable)
R$ 33,853,698.41
Expected Value -Worst Case (Probable)
R$ 37,085,737.59
Risk Differential Improbable Worst Case
R$ 7,538,624.91
Risk Differential Probable Worst Case
R$ 2,427,345.69
Most Probable Risk Differential
R$ 1,027,652.20
Risk Differential Probable Best Case
R$ (804,693.49)
Risk Differential Improbable Best Case
R$ (1,645,533.30)
PLANTHERESPONSETORISKS
THEMOSTPROBABLERISKDIFFERENTIALPOST-REACTIONINCREASEDIN2.97%THEBASEVALUEOFTHEWORK.
THISNUMBERISTHEUPPERLIMIT(THE“CEILING”)ACCEPTABLEFORTHEIMPACTOFTHERISKSINTHISPROJECT.

20. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
Expected value Post-reaction
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work
R$ 34,658,391.90
Cost of reaction of threats
R$ 595,000.00
Cost of reaction of opportunities
R$ -
New Base Value of the Work
R$ 35,253,391.90
Risks -Threats
R$ (1,832,345.69)
Risks -Opportunities
R$ 1,399,693.49
Management Reserves
R$ -
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (POST-REACTION)
R$ 35,686,044.10
Expected Value -Best Case (Improbable)
R$ 33,012,858.60
Expected Value -Worst Case (Improbable)
R$ 42,197,016.82
Expected Value -Best Case (Probable)
R$ 33,853,698.41
Expected Value -Worst Case (Probable)
R$ 37,085,737.59
Risk Differential Improbable Worst Case
R$ 7,538,624.91
Risk Differential Probable Worst Case
R$ 2,427,345.69
Most Probable Risk Differential
R$ 1,027,652.20
Risk Differential Probable Best Case
R$ (804,693.49)
Risk Differential Improbable Best Case
R$ (1,645,533.30)
PLANTHERESPONSETORISKS
THEMETRICSFORTHEDETERMINATIONOFTHEPERFORMANCEOFRISKSSHALLBEBASEDONTHEEXPECTEDVALUEINTHEPROBABLEBESTCASE.
THEIDR(RISKPERFORMANCEINDEX)SHALLVARYACCORDINGWITHTHISNUMBER.REACHINGTHEGOALSMEANSANIDR=100%.

21. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
MONITORINGANDCONTROLOFRISKS
CULTURALLY,CONSTRUCTIONCOMPANIESINCORPORATERISKSFROM3%TO5%WHILEDEFININGTHECOSTSOFAPROJECT.
AMISTAKENCONCEPTWASCREATEDTHATTHISPARAMETERWORKSSINCETHETENDENDYFORRISKSTHATAREIGNOREDANDNOTMANAGEDISTOREMAINWITHINSUCHMARGIN.
THEFACTISTHATTHERISKMANAGEMENTMAYTURNUNCERTAINTIESINTOACOMPETITIVEADVANTAGEANDMAKETHEDIFFERENTONDECISIONMAKING.
THISMETHODOLOGYMUSTBEAPPLIEDAFTERTHEDETERMINATIONOFARISKPOLICYWHERETHEORGANIZATION’SRISKTOLERANCEWASDEFINED.
THISPOLICYMAYBEGANONAPESSIMISTICNOTEANDBECOMEMOREOPTMISTICASTHEPROJECTSREGISTERBETTERPERFORMANCE,ANDTHELESSONSLEARNEDPROVIDEMATURITYFORTHEORGANIZATION.
MATURECOMPANIESAREMORECOMPETITIVE!
THESUCESSINOBTAININGSTREAMLINEDRISKPERFORMANCEMETRICSLIESINMONITORINGANDCONTROLLINGTHEMINTHEENTIRELIFECYCLEOFTHEPROJECT.

22. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA. MONITORINGANDCONTROLOFRISKSTIPSFORTHEMONITORINGANDCONTROLOFRISKS:
-ALLREACTIONSMUSTHAVEARESPONSIBLEPERSONANDADATEFORTHEIRPERFORMANCE.
-THEREACTIONSMUSTBEINCLUDEDINTHESCHEDULEASACTIVITIES.
-THEROOTCAUSEOFTHERISKMUSTBEMONITOREDANDWARNINGMUSTBEINCLUDEDINTHECOMMUNICATIONPLAN.
-THEMANAGEMENTRESERVESMUSTBEUSEDONLYFORRISKSNOTIDENTIFIED.
-THEPMOMUSTESTABLISHGOVERNANCEFORTHEAPPLICATIONOFTHEPROCESSSANDFOLLOW- UPOFTHERISKS.
-MAINTAINDOCUMENTATIONWITHTHEREGISTERINGOFTHERISKS,TENDENCIESANDCHANGESTOTHESCENARIO.
-INCREASETHEORGANIZATIONMATURITYBYINCORPORATINGTHELESSONSLEARNEDINRISKMANAGEMENTOFKNOWLEDGEMANAGEMENT.

23. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA. WRITTENBYEDUARDOMILITÃOELIAS,MBA/PMP® ID1396759SPONSOREDBYCONSTRUTORAIBENLTDA.,RCPPMI® ID1463462