Study of Average Hourly Variations of Radio Refractivity Variations across So...
Impact of Intraseasonal Variations to the Spatial Distribution_rev28feb
1. Impact of Intraseasonal Variations to the Spatial
Distribution of Coastal Heavy Rainbands Intensity During
HARIMAU IOP 2011 in the West Sumatera
Ardhi Adhary Arbain, Yekti Galihselowati
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Indonesia
Shuichi Mori
Japan Agency for Marine-earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Japan
Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology/Climatology in Indonesia
Jakarta, February 28, 2013
2. OUTLINE
Background
The Characteristic of Indonesian Maritime Continent
Coastal Heavy Rainbands (CHeRs)
Overview and Previous Studies
Motivations and Objectives
Datasets
Results
Regional Variability (Satellite)
Local Variability (Radar)
Summary and Discussion
Conclusion
3. BACKGROUND
TRMM Website
Diurnal Variation
Warm Water Warm Water
Air-Sea Interaction
Pacific OceanMaritime Continent
Air-Sea Interaction
“mini El Niño”Air-Land-Sea Interaction
Diurnal Cycle
Latent heating Latent heatingSolar
heating
Rainfall
“Sprinkler”
Annual Rainfall (TRMM 3B43), 1998-2011
Intraseasonal Variations (MJO, Kelvin Wave, Equatorial Rossby Wave etc.)
Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) :
The longest coastlines
The most active convective clouds
Affected by Diurnal, Intraseasonal,
Seasonal and Interannual variations
The largest rainfall
What is the characteristic of Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) ?
(Mori et al., 2004)
Convection/circulation anomalies in the tropics can influence all over the world !
4. COASTAL HEAVY RAINBANDS (CHERS)
CHeRs are widely confirmed in the Asian Monsoon regions after the TRMM era.
CHeRs along Sumatera Island are the strongest and mostly generated by Diurnal Cycle (Mori et al.,
2004, 2011)
Mori et al., 2004TRMM3A25 analysis by Dr. Mori
The 2nd GPM Asia Workshop, 2010
CHeRs mechanism could be explained by wind-terrain interaction (Xie et al., 2006).
Xie et al., 2006
CHeRs intensity and distribution also affected by Seasonal & Interannual Variations .
QSCAT sea surface wind
La Nina
El Nino
GSMaP MWR analysis by Arbain & Galihselowati
The 2nd GPM Asia Workshop, 2010
1998-2006How about ISVs ?
5. MOTIVATIONS
Most of important cities in Asian monsoon region are located near the
coastline (e.g. Jakarta, Padang, Bangkok etc.)
There are not so many studies of CHeRs over IMC, especially about their
connections to multi-scale atmospheric variations in the tropics (ENSO,
IOD, MJO, Tropical waves etc.).
Jakarta
Padang
Bandar Seri Begawan
Singapore
Bangkok
Makassar
The cities are vulnerable to
disasters caused by CHeRs
Padang, 2012
Jakarta, 2007
Bangkok, 2011GSMaP MWR, 1998-2006
The study of CHeRs is important for the social community and human lives in Asian monsoon
Region, as well as for meteorological and climatological points of view !
6. OBJECTIVES
To understand the dynamics and diurnal variability of CHeRs related to
Intraseasonal Variations (ISVs) in the Sumatera Region, especially over Padang
and surrounding area, during HARIMAU IOP (Intensive Observation Period) 2011.
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MIA
PUTUS
SIPORA
SUMATERA
ISLAND
MIA - XDR
MPR
RAWINSONDE
HARIMAU IOP 2011
West Sumatera, December 1 – 31, 2011
AWS
Hydrometeorological ARray for Intraseasonal variation Monsoon AUto-monitoring (HARIMAU)
TABING
7. DATASETS
1. REGIONAL SCALE DATA
Hourly Global Rainfall Map in Near-Real-Time (GSMaP NRT) products,
with 0.1° x 0.1° spatial resolution (November 2011 – January 2012),
provided by JAXA, Japan
NCEP Reanalysis Ver.1 daily wind datasets, T62 Gaussian grid
(November 2011 – January 2012), provided by NOAA, USA.
Wheeler and Hendon Real-time Multivariate MJO Index (October –
December 2011), provided by BOM, Australia.
2. LOCAL SCALE DATA
Padang X-band Doppler Radar (MIA-XDR) datasets, with 500m x 500m
spatial resolution, 10-minutes updated (November 2011 – January
2012)
Rawinsonde and other in-situ observations (AWS, ARG etc.) in the
period of November 2011 – January 2012
8. RESULTS
1. REGIONAL VARIABILITY (GSMaP)
2. LOCAL VARIABILITY (Radar)
Data sets :
GSMaP NRT, 0.1° x 0.1° res, hourly
NCEP Reanalysis Ver.1 Surface Wind, daily
9. ISVS DURING HARIMAU IOP 2011
(GSMAP NRT, 5N-5S AVERAGE, 30 NOV 2011 – 1 JAN 2012)
MJO1MJO2BREAKPHASE
HARIMAUIOP2011
MIA-XDR
MJO1 December 1st – 10th 2011
BREAK PHASE December 11th – 19th 2011
MJO2 December 20th – 31st 2011
11. MJO 1
BREAK PHASE
MJO 2
[Evening Rain (12-23LT) – Morning Rain (00-11LT)]
Morning
Maxima
Evening
Maxima
REGIONAL DIURNAL SIGNAL
DURING IOP2011
(GSMAP NRT )
01 -31 Dec 2011
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12. RESULTS
1. REGIONAL VARIABILITY (GSMaP)
2. LOCAL VARIABILITY (Radar)
Data sets :
X-band Doppler Radar, 500m x 500m res, 10 minutes
Rawinsonde and Insitu observations (AWS, ARG etc.), 1 minutes
13. ECHO EVOLUTION AND DISTRIBUTION
(DECEMBER 1 – 31, 2011)
MIA- XDR, CAPPI 2km
Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island
Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island Sumatera Island
15. DIURNAL VARIATION AND PROPAGATION
MJO 1
MJO 2
BREAK PHASE
LANDSEA LANDSEA LANDSEA LANDSEA
LANDSEA
SUMATERA
ISLAND
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16. AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION
AND PROPAGATION
MJO 1 MJO 2BREAK PHASE
MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2
LANDSEA LANDSEA LANDSEA
MORNINGEVENING
MORNINGEVENING
MORNINGEVENING
Strong W
Moderate NW
Weak SW, S
Moderate W, SW
Strong W, NW
Weak SW, S
17. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS
MJO Periods Break Phase
Rainfall Distribution
Mostly occurred over the
sea region than over the
island
More prominent over the
coastal and inland region
Diurnal Variation
Maximum signal over the
sea region
Maximum signal near the
coastline
Diurnal cycle near the
coastline is suppressed
Diurnal cycle near the
coastline is prominent
MJO 1 BREAK PHASE MJO 2
18. SUMMARY AND DISCUSSIONS
Did tropical waves with shorter period than MJO also played important
role to the dynamics of DC during IOP 2011 ?
Tropical waves during IOP2011 :
MJO 1
MJO 2
BREAK PHASE
MJO, Kelvin Wave
Eq. Rossby Wave
MJO, Kelvin, Eq. Rossby Wave
Tropical wave analysis by
Carl Schreck
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center
27. DIURNAL CYCLE OF RAINFALL
(MIA-XDR, 30MIN-RUNNING MEAN OF AREA RAINFALL AVERAGE, SEA REGION)
MJO 1 [01-10 DEC]
MJO 2 [20-31DEC]
Weak MJO [11-19DEC]
All Period [01-31DEC]
28. DIURNAL CYCLE OF RAINFALL
(MIA-XDR, 30MIN-RUNNING MEAN OF AREA RAINFALL AVERAGE, LAND REGION)
MJO 1 [01-10DEC]
MJO 2 [20-31DEC]
Weak MJO [11-19DEC]
All Period [01-31DEC]
30. AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION
(MJO 1, 1 – 10 DEC 2011)
Sea
Morning
Land
Afternoon
DC is supressed
By MJO ?
Maximum rainfall over coastline
Maximum rainfall in the morning
31. AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION
(WEAK MJO, 11 DEC – 19 DEC 2011)
Sea
Morning
Land
Afternoon
DC is prominent
Maximum rainfall offshore
Maximum rainfall at midnight
32. AVERAGED DIURNAL VARIATION
(MJO 2, 20 DEC – 31 DEC 2011)
Sea
Morning
Land
Afternoon
DC is supressed
By MJO ?
Eastward PPD in the late
evening ?
Orographic rain
In the afternoon ?
Maximum rainfall near mountains
Maximum rainfall in the late evening
42. WH MJO INDEX
(1 OCT – 31 DEC 2011)
22
21_ RMMRMMAmplitudeMJO +=
Amplitude ≥ 1 Strong MJO Period
Amplitude < 1 Weak MJO Period
Active MJO (Phase 4) during IOP 2011 :
1 – 5 Dec & 20 – 24 Dec (10 days)
Weak MJO during IOP 2011 :
11 – 19 Dec (9 days)
Wheeler and Hendon, 2004
CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology
Inactive MJO (Phase 5) during IOP 2011 :
6 – 10 Dec & 25 – 31 Dec (12 days)
Active (In Phase) Inactive (Out of Phase)
43. REGIONAL DAILY RAINFALL
DURING IOP2011
(GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)
Active MJO
Weak MJO
Inactive MJO
HARIMAU IOP 2011
(01 -31 Dec 2011)
44. REGIONAL AREA AVERAGE OF DAILY RAINFALL
DURING IOP2011
(GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)
ACT
Weak MJO
Inactive MJO
HARIMAU IOP 2011
(01 -31 Dec 2011)
mm/day
mean=11.56 mm/day
Active MJO
WEAKINACT ACT INACT
45. REGIONAL DIURNAL SIGNAL DURING IOP2011
(GSMAP NRT)
HARIMAU IOP 2011
(01 -31 Dec 2011)
[Evening Rain (12-23LT) – Morning Rain (00-11LT)]
Morning
Maxima
Afternoon
Maxima
Weak MJO
Inactive MJO
Active MJO
46. REGIONAL DAILY RAINFALL STANDARD
DEVIATION DURING IOP2011
(GSMAP NRT + NCEP REANALYSIS SURFACE WIND)
Active MJO , 01-10 Dec
Weak MJO, 11-19 Dec
Active MJO, 20-31 Dec
HARIMAU IOP 2011
(01 -31 Dec 2011)
