Scenario Planning 2012

Think About the Future

And convert your thoughts to an
ASSET

(c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd
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2012 All rights reserved

• WHY do we do this
• HOW does it work
• WHERE does it work
• WHEN should you use it
• WHO should use it
• WHAT are the benefits

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WHY
For each business case organizations need to consider a
comprehensive set of future events
• The current approach is often based on “PEST” analysis of
event clusters:

• Political
• Economic
• Social
• Technological

However -
this approach does not recognize that there may be a cause-and-
effect relationship between these event clusters

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• The future will be comprised of EVENTS
• The events will be caused by PEOPLE
and/or NATURE
• Organizations (both Private and Public)
consider the future before making strategic
choices for investment of resources in a
BUSINESS CASE
• We can classify the future events into
CONTROLLABLE / UNCONTROLLABLE (by
management) on a case-by-case basis

4

The outcomes of future events can be
considered in terms of RISK:
• The extreme outcome in favor of the
business case
• The extreme in conflict with the business
case
• The most likely outcome

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The most likely outcome can be considered in
terms of:
• The probability of occurrence
• The peak timing
• The impact on the business case

This reasoning is already well established in the
management tool :

“FAILURE MODE EFFECTS ANALYSIS”

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HOW

To reflect the cause-and-effect relationships
between the clusters of future events, we
have developed the Amplios Risk &
Opportunity Model
“AMPROSS”
as shown in the following graphic

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1. SOCIAL issues arise from Human Needs
2. APPROACHES are is used for immediate effect
3. TECHNOLOGY enhances the approach
4. ECONOMIC benefits arise from the solution
5. NATURAL RESOURCES (including human) are applied
6. POLITICAL issues arise from benefits sharing
7. LEGAL solutions are applied to resolve issues
8. INTERNATIONAL issues arise from different systems
9. DEMOGRAPHIC movement follows
10. ENVIRONMENTAL impact issues arise

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As a reminder of the sequence, we can use the
memory prompt:

SATENPLIDE

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WHERE
The Ampross model assists us to identify for any
particular business case:
• Future events affecting the:
• Industry
• Industry Group
• Locality
• Country
• Region
• Profession
• Preceding and consequential future events
• Associated opportunities
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WHEN

The model is used:

• Prior to any major new investment decision
• Continuously in monitoring current investments
• Prior to the annual business planning process

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WHO
The model is designed to be used by:
• Senior and middle management in:
• medium-to-large enterprises
• government ministries
• professional associations
• Management trainers
• Strategy Consultants
• Journalists seeking background for articles
• Students performing research in industries
• Job seekers performing research on prospects
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WHO . . .
The model has already been used by senior
management in projects in:
• South East Asia – Satellite Industry
• South Asia:
• Petroleum Imports, Construction, Hospitality
• Pharmaceuticals Imports, Retail, Transport Industries
• Training programs in:
• Singapore, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Malaysia
• Oman, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam

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A Recent Project - South East Asia – Satellite Industry

Space debris problem getting worse
2012 All rights reserved 15

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A recent (ongoing) project in South Asia

We studied the future of hospitality & tourism in the Maldives
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A recent (ongoing) project in South Asia

Our consultants’ project office is on Male’, the capital city island
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The Scenario Planning techniques developed by
Amplios have been given international recognition
by publication of one of the case studies in this text
published by Wylie in March 2012. The Amazon link
is:
http://www.amazon.com/Scenario-Planning-Field-
Guide-
Future/dp/1118170156/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&qid=
1320872440&sr=8-14
The author, Woody Wade, is an international subject
matter expert in Scenario Planning with a
background at the World Economic Forum,
Switzerland
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WHO . . .

There are 1 million potential users on LinkedIn

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SOME OF OUR CLIENTS

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WHAT
The benefits of using the model are:
• Due diligence requirements are thoroughly
addressed before entering into investment risk
• The process is easily understood by all stakeholders
• The process gets all players on the same page
• The results are communicated in graphics
• The results are supported by links to source
documents
• The preparation is rapid
• The updating of the process is rapid
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CONVERTING YOUR THOUGHTS TO AN ASSET
• The model engages the services of researchers, who
are engaged to:
• Read the documents related to future events as supplied
by Amplios
• Identify the future events, risks and opportunities
related to the subject business case
• Assign first impression values as to probability of
occurrence, timing, impact on the business case, for the
extreme and most likely outcomes
• The research work and role then becomes an asset
on the researcher’s personal profile

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CONVERTING YOUR THOUGHTS TO AN ASSET . . .

• The researchers can be independent or employees
of corporate / government users of the system
• The researchers can then be employed as trainers in
the use of the methodology
• The research then becomes an asset of the
corporation / government institution and the
foundation for its strategic planning

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Scenario Planning (Structured Future Thinking) is the foundation for sound
implementation of a coordinated suite of management tools

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NEXT STEPS

Get in touch with Amplios regarding:
• Scenario Planning, Horizon Scanning and Foresight
Projects
• Management Training programs
• Regional Consulting / Training partnerships
Further details can be found at the website:
www.amplios.net
Wilson Fyffe direct email: wfyffe@amplios.net

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Scenario Planning 2012

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