Scenario Planning 2012
 

Scenario Planning 2012

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Scenario Planning method for general use by private corporations and public institutions.

Scenario Planning method for general use by private corporations and public institutions.

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Scenario Planning 2012 Scenario Planning 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • Think About the Future And convert your thoughts to an ASSET (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 1 2012 All rights reserved
  • • WHY do we do this• HOW does it work• WHERE does it work• WHEN should you use it• WHO should use it• WHAT are the benefits (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 2 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHYFor each business case organizations need to consider acomprehensive set of future events• The current approach is often based on “PEST” analysis of event clusters:• Political• Economic• Social• TechnologicalHowever -this approach does not recognize that there may be a cause-and-effect relationship between these event clusters (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 3 2012 All rights reserved
  • • The future will be comprised of EVENTS• The events will be caused by PEOPLE and/or NATURE• Organizations (both Private and Public) consider the future before making strategic choices for investment of resources in a BUSINESS CASE• We can classify the future events into CONTROLLABLE / UNCONTROLLABLE (by management) on a case-by-case basis (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 4 2012 All rights reserved
  • The outcomes of future events can be considered in terms of RISK:• The extreme outcome in favor of the business case• The extreme in conflict with the business case• The most likely outcome (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 5 2012 All rights reserved
  • The most likely outcome can be considered interms of:• The probability of occurrence• The peak timing• The impact on the business caseThis reasoning is already well established in themanagement tool :“FAILURE MODE EFFECTS ANALYSIS” (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 6 2012 All rights reserved
  • HOWTo reflect the cause-and-effect relationships between the clusters of future events, we have developed the Amplios Risk & Opportunity Model “AMPROSS” as shown in the following graphic (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 7 2012 All rights reserved
  • (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 8 2012 All rights reserved
  • 1. SOCIAL issues arise from Human Needs2. APPROACHES are is used for immediate effect3. TECHNOLOGY enhances the approach4. ECONOMIC benefits arise from the solution5. NATURAL RESOURCES (including human) are applied6. POLITICAL issues arise from benefits sharing7. LEGAL solutions are applied to resolve issues8. INTERNATIONAL issues arise from different systems9. DEMOGRAPHIC movement follows10. ENVIRONMENTAL impact issues arise (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 9 2012 All rights reserved
  • As a reminder of the sequence, we can use thememory prompt: SATENPLIDE (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 10 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHEREThe Ampross model assists us to identify for any particular business case:• Future events affecting the: • Industry • Industry Group • Locality • Country • Region • Profession• Preceding and consequential future events• Associated opportunities (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 11 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHENThe model is used:• Prior to any major new investment decision• Continuously in monitoring current investments• Prior to the annual business planning process (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 12 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHOThe model is designed to be used by:• Senior and middle management in: • medium-to-large enterprises • government ministries • professional associations• Management trainers• Strategy Consultants• Journalists seeking background for articles• Students performing research in industries• Job seekers performing research on prospects (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 13 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHO . . .The model has already been used by seniormanagement in projects in:• South East Asia – Satellite Industry• South Asia: • Petroleum Imports, Construction, Hospitality • Pharmaceuticals Imports, Retail, Transport Industries• Training programs in: • Singapore, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Malaysia • Oman, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 14 2012 All rights reserved
  • A Recent Project - South East Asia – Satellite Industry Space debris problem getting worse (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 2012 All rights reserved 15
  • (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 2012 All rights reserved 16
  • A recent (ongoing) project in South Asia We studied the future of hospitality & tourism in the Maldives (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 17 2012 All rights reserved
  • A recent (ongoing) project in South Asia Our consultants’ project office is on Male’, the capital city island (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 18 2012 All rights reserved
  • (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 19 2012 All rights reserved
  • The Scenario Planning techniques developed byAmplios have been given international recognitionby publication of one of the case studies in this textpublished by Wylie in March 2012. The Amazon linkis:http://www.amazon.com/Scenario-Planning-Field-Guide-Future/dp/1118170156/ref=sr_1_14?ie=UTF8&qid=1320872440&sr=8-14The author, Woody Wade, is an international subjectmatter expert in Scenario Planning with abackground at the World Economic Forum,Switzerland (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 20 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHO . . . There are 1 million potential users on LinkedIn (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 21 2012 All rights reserved
  • SOME OF OUR CLIENTS (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 22 2012 All rights reserved
  • WHATThe benefits of using the model are:• Due diligence requirements are thoroughly addressed before entering into investment risk• The process is easily understood by all stakeholders• The process gets all players on the same page• The results are communicated in graphics• The results are supported by links to source documents• The preparation is rapid• The updating of the process is rapid (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 23 2012 All rights reserved
  • CONVERTING YOUR THOUGHTS TO AN ASSET• The model engages the services of researchers, who are engaged to: • Read the documents related to future events as supplied by Amplios • Identify the future events, risks and opportunities related to the subject business case • Assign first impression values as to probability of occurrence, timing, impact on the business case, for the extreme and most likely outcomes• The research work and role then becomes an asset on the researcher’s personal profile (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 24 2012 All rights reserved
  • CONVERTING YOUR THOUGHTS TO AN ASSET . . .• The researchers can be independent or employees of corporate / government users of the system• The researchers can then be employed as trainers in the use of the methodology• The research then becomes an asset of the corporation / government institution and the foundation for its strategic planning (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 25 2012 All rights reserved
  • Scenario Planning (Structured Future Thinking) is the foundation for soundimplementation of a coordinated suite of management tools (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 26 2012 All rights reserved
  • NEXT STEPSGet in touch with Amplios regarding:• Scenario Planning, Horizon Scanning and Foresight Projects• Management Training programs• Regional Consulting / Training partnershipsFurther details can be found at the website: www.amplios.net Wilson Fyffe direct email: wfyffe@amplios.net (c) Copyright Amplios Consultants Pte Ltd 27 2012 All rights reserved