Scenario Planning 2020


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What is Scenario Planning, and how do you do it? Check out futurist Anders Sorman-Nilsson's slide deck for a structured yet imaginative process for Scenario Planning.

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Scenario Planning 2020

  1. 1. Scenario Planning by Anders Sorman-Nilsson of Thinque
  2. 2. Scenario Planning - 2020 Vision Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helps executives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies. As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives and leaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for foreseeable and unpredictable futures.
  3. 3. What are the certainties for the future?What are the uncertainties for the future?How confident are we? Certainties v Uncertainties
  4. 4. Certainties v Uncertainties
  5. 5. Define the QuestionWhat is the of in the next years?
  6. 6. List the Driving ForcesWhat are the key uncertainties and forces that will shape thefuture in predictable and unpredictable ways? Look at variables,trends and events that impact it.Think about your question from STEEP perspectives:Socio-CulturalTechnologicalEnvironmentalEconomicPolitical
  7. 7. List the Driving Forces12 List Driving Forces345 eg.6 • pace of change7 • new entrants8 • state of the economy • digitisation9 • industry consolidation10
  8. 8. List the Driving Forces Highest 1 2 List Driving Forces 3Importance 4 5 6 7 Prioritise 8 the Top 2 9 Lowest 10
  9. 9. Top 2Uncertainty HighDimensions Narrow Wide Low
  10. 10. Top 2UncertaintyDimensions
  11. 11. High Scenario 1 Scenario 2Narrow Wide Scenario 4 Scenario 3 Low
  12. 12. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Name Newsflash Dynamics RecommendationsScenario 4 Scenario 3
  13. 13. Our Scenario1. Create imaginary, but believable news stories2. Newsflash 20183. Title4. Story5. Dynamics6. Themes7. Recommendations
  14. 14. Our ScenarioQuestions:• What events led to this scenario?• Looking back from the future, how did this scenario come to be?• Are you stories relevant, surprising, divergent, yet plausible?• What could happen over the next 5 years?
  15. 15. Our Scenario Implications
  16. 16. Our Scenario Themes
  17. 17. Our Scenario Actions
  18. 18. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Implications Themes ActionsScenario 4 Scenario 3
  19. 19. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Track Research RankScenario 4 Scenario 3
  20. 20. Emergent Themes
  21. 21. Who is Anders?Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helpsexecutives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies.As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives andleaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for both foreseeable and unpredictablefutures. Since founding Thinque in 2005, he has worked with and spoken to clients like Xerox,Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Cisco, Eli Lilly, SAP, IBM, ABN Amro Bank, Commonwealth Bank,McCann Erickson and BAE Systems, across diverse cultural and geographic contexts. Anders is an active member of TEDGlobal (Oxford 2009 / Edinburgh 2011), has keynoted atTEDx, guest lectured at University of Technology Sydney Business School, and Anders is on theprestigious 2013 Million Dollar Roundtable roster. He is a member of the University of SydneyGlobal Executive MBA cohort, and has completed executive education at Stanford University andthe Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.
  22. 22. Enquire now
  23. 23. Testimonials“There are those special moments when the right ideas and the right people collide to make magic. This isone of those times. I want to say a HUGE THANK YOU for all your work to make the Senior DirectorConference both an engaging experience, and a catalyst for change.”CMO Asia, Fortune 500, Pharmaceutical Industry“Anders provided an engaging and energetic presentation of real and relevant information to the businessthat could be used in all areas across the business both now and moving into the future.“Head of Regional Portfolio Management Asia, Fortune 500, FMCG “Anders presentation style and fresh content were an excellent and inspirational start to our Summit. Itresulted in only positive feedback from the audience. Anders is very professional and a brilliant thinker andcommunicator!”Management Consultant, Fortune 1000, Banking Industry