Tunisian Economy Overview Tunisia Capital Markets Overview

1. TUNISIAN ECONOMY OVERVIEW
Tunisia has successfully turmoil emanating from the
opened-up to the global US and Europe in
economy, maintaining September 2008. This was
consistent levels of growth due to several factors
and achieving an annual including: GDP, 2004 - 08 (%)
average growth rate of 5.2% Tunisia does not have a
for the 2005-2008 period. “sub-prime” problem
Tunisia has grown as a Local banks have little 6.30%
6%
modern Middle Income foreign exposure 5.50%
Country, with a promising Foreign participation in the 5%
role in providing high level stock market is “relatively
services to the region and to low”, at some 28%.
4%
Europe, in particular in
health services, and has Given the country’s
successfully invested in dependence on European
infrastructure and Union for its exports, the real
liberalization to foster the economy could not,
development of a tourism however, escape the effects
sector. Many reforms were of recession in Europe and
2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009**
recently implemented to US. As a result of recession
promote private sector in Europe, Tunisia’s real
development. Tunisia ranked GDP slowed down towards Source: National Institute of Statistics (INS)
73rd (out of 181 countries) in the end of 2008 (4.5%) and it *: Temporary data
**: Likely data for 2007
the Ease of doing business is expected to slow further
Indicator for 2009, up from as consequence of the
st
81 in 2008, positioning the financial turmoil affecting
country among the region’s Europe and the US (forecast Exports, 2005-08 ($ m illion)
two best regional performers for 2009 is around 4%).
with Egypt. This resulted Growth in the volume of 17 772
from reforms of the exports declined sharply in
investment climate, including the second semester to 14 594
on starting a business, 1.5% (against 14% in 2007)
getting credit and on the as exports of textiles and
11698
protection of investors. clothing as well as
10 231
Starting a business, closing automobile components fell
a business, enforcing sharply in the last quarter of
contracts, registering 2008. Fortunately, Foreign
property, and dealing with direct investment increased
certain aspects of licenses by 40% in 2008, easing
are all generally easier in somewhat the financing
Tunisia than elsewhere in needs emanating from the
the Middle East and North sharp increase in the current
Africa Region. The account deficit (-4.6%).
2005 2006 2007 2008
government is also
rehabilitating and expanding Inflation Source: National Institute of Statistics (INS)
industrial zones in different
regions and is trying to Inflationary pressures eased
integrate them with research at the end of 2008.
institutes and laboratories in Consumer price inflation
order to create “poles de trended upwards until mid-
compétitivité” and further 2008 (5.5% in July 2008).
boost foreign direct Inflation is expected to
investment. decline from 5% in 2008 to
4% in 2009 and 3% in 2010.
Macro economy and
Global Financial Crisis
Tunisia came strong into the
global crisis and
macroeconomic stability was
relatively unaffected in the
initial stages of the global
financial crisis. The Tunisian
economy was not
significantly affected by the
initial spread of financial
The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 1
provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable

2. CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
2008 was an absolutely regulatory body charged with
horrific year for the global overseeing the TSE, local
markets, and it should come brokerages, deposit-taking
as no surprise that the vast institutions and transfer COUNTRY INDEX 2008 PERFORMANCE
majority of major market agents. The CMF have the
indexes were down in 2008. responsibility of protecting TUNISIA TUNINDEX 10.65%
Of all the stock markets shareholders and listing
MOROCCO MASI -14%
throughout the world, one companies from any
managed to escape the fraudulent or manipulative EGYPT CASE 30 -57%
negative effects of the market activities and the free
crushing credit crisis and exchange of financial BAHRAIN BSE -34%
global recession - Tunisia. information. DUBAI DFMGI -73%
Classified as a “frontier” Started in 1998, the USA S&P 500 -38%
capital market, the Tunis TUNINDEX is the exchange’s UK FTSE 100 -31%
Stock Exchange (TSE) has first index linked to market
shown a penchant for capitalisation with a reference FRANCE CAC 40 -42%
avoiding the critical levels of base of 1000 dating to JAPAN NIKKEI 25 -40%
volatility that have recently December 31, 1997. The
distinguished many of its index is open to all listed Source : www.btflive.net
peer exchanges in the stocks except investment
Middle East and North Africa funds and currently tracks 44
(MENA) region. While equity companies.
markets across the globe 2007 2008
took a fall in September At the conclusion of 2008, the
TUNINDEX 2 614 2 892
2008, due largely to the finance sector’s share of the
demise of Lehmann TSE’s market capitalisation
BVMT 1 937 1 971
Brothers, the Tunisian was approximately 72%, at
Equity Market managed to TND5.98 billion ($5 billion).
Capitalisation ($ million) 4 907 6 241
regain its composure and Companies grouped within the
ended 2008 up 10.65% for consumer services sector
Volume ($ million) 688 1 586
the fifth consecutive year. came in second with 10% of
market capital, followed by
Listed Companies 51 52
The TSE was ranked third in consumer goods companies
the world following peer with 9% and basic materials
Source : www.bvmt.com
frontier stock Markets Accra, companies with roughly 5%.
Ghana and Quito, Ecuador.
Furthermore, when
compared to equity markets
across the North Africa
Region, the TSE stands out
due to its lower price-to-
earning ratios, solid dividend Index (points), 2003 - 08
yields and the low levels of
capital saturation.
3 500 TUNINDEX
Tunis Stock Exchange 3 000
Tunis Stock Exchange has 2 500
been created in 1969. In 1996, 2 000
TSE became a partner of the
New York Stock exchange and 1 500
upgraded its trading platform to 1 000
NSC V900 system. Foreign
portfolio investors are legally 500
able to hold up to 50% of any 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
equity listing.
Source : www.bvmt.com
The TSE featured 50 traded
companies with an overall
market capitalisation of
approximately $6241 million.
The financial Market Council
(CMF) is the government
The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 2
provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable

3. CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
Recent Performance The Tunisian market place is of equity funds specialising
attracting more foreign in the MENA region.
From 2003 to 2007, TUNINDEX investors than ever before. The significant level of
grew by a very respectable 94% While 2007 was exceptional foreign investor participation
recording 2 614.07 points. ($1.7 billion; up 36% on in the IPOs of Poulina in
The index reached as high as 2006 numbers) in terms of 2008 and Tunisie Profile
3418.4 points at the beginning Foreign Direct Investment, Aluminium (TPR) in 2007
of September. At its high in money continued to flow in demonstrates the important
2008, market capitalisation was the same impressive pace role foreign portfolios play in
TND9.5 billion ($8 billion). But, (up 40%) over the first seven contributing new sources of
due to the psychological months of 2008. liquidity to the Tunisian
tremors caused by the demise Capital Market
of Lehmann Brothers in mid- Foreign investors had a
September 2008, the TSE fell steady appetite for buying
15.4% from its peak and lost Tunisian Stocks through July
TND1.53 billion ($1.3 billion) in 2008. A sustained period of
capitalisation. selling begun in September TUNINDEX (points), 2009
2008 and this pattern
Significant listings continued through the
3 900
beginning of 2009, when
buying and selling activities 3 700 TUNINDEX
The total capitalisation of the
TSE turned a major corner in were considerably closer to 3 500
2008 with the IPOs of two an equilibrium point. Despite 3 300
large-cap firms. this morose period for 3 100
In April 2008 Tunisia’s foreign portfolio investment,
2 900
Renault automobile it is nonetheless significant
that the total share of 2 700
concession operator ARTES
joined the exchange by capitalisation for foreign 2 500
issuing 30.18% of its total investors remained Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09
capital. remarkably steady. While as
In August 2008 Tunisia’s high as 28.1% according to
most important private TSE statistics, foreign
holding company, with a investor’s share of the Source : www.bvmt.com
market cap of approximately market’s capital never
$800 million, Poulina Group dropped lower than 24.7% in
Holding, made its entrance December. Foreign
with a highly enthusiastic participation levelled off at
market reaction issuing 25.42% in January.
TND99 million ($ 75 million). In fact, Tunisia is attracting
Poulina offer increased the more foreigners for a Foreign Investment, 2009 (%)
TSE’s market capitalisation number of reasons:
by nearly TND1 billion ($840 Its fiscal advantages,
million). which include no taxes on
25.42%
dividends and capital gains
Numerous incentives Its stability 25.07%
Its potential, compared to
24.82%
already exist for private 24.59%
companies debating whether other Arab Markets
to list. These include a 20% Unfortunately, there are 24.12%
corporate tax rate, compared certain limitations for foreign
to the normal 30% rate, for investors:
the five years following a The potential size of
company’s IPO. foreign investments, which
are often too big for Tunisia
The size of the ticket to Jan-09 f eb-09 M ar-09 Apr-09 M ay-09
Investors
invest. There is not enough
The Overall composition of big companies such as Source : www.bvmt.com
TSE investors serves as a Poulina and ARTES
particularly revealing The thin trading in Tunisia
indicator for the market. Mostly of foreign portfolio
Local Tunisian equity investors come from Gulf
investors tend to be private and from Europe. Gulf
individuals as opposed to investors first came in large
institutional investors. numbers in 2006. After,
European institutional
investors followed the mould
Foreign investors
The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 3
provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable

4. CAPITAL MARKETS OVERVIEW
2008 market Overview Auto Manufacturers: the cost had sharply affected
Outstanding Performance of the share value, SOTRAPIL
ASSAD Component finished 2008 down 58%.
2009 Market Outlook
The TUNINDEX ended 2008
up 10.7% at 2892 points. Despite facing tremendous
The trend was bullish led by Supplier ASSAD turned in a Telecommunications:
selling pressure during the
big winners such as STAR, very positive performance of
third and fourth quarter of
ASTREE and ASSAD. 126% and has successfully SOTETEL was down with
2008, the TSE continues to
The financial services sector exceeded its objectives shares dropping 57%.
take back much of the ground
recorded the best closing the year with a net Despite the optimistic
lost during the tumult of 2008.
performance with an profit multiplied by 3 business plan presented by
increase of 57.23% of its compared to 2007. The other the management in
TUNINDEX finished the
index, followed by the companies from its sector 2007, planning a turnover of
second quarter of 2009 with a
distribution sector which rose reported big losses and TND56 million for 2008
27.14% gain.
55.22%. The banking sector ended the year with low instead of TND 26.5 million
showed good results in 2008 performance of 1% for GIF, - in 2007, the company posted
In addition, foreign investors
despite the difficult global 3% for STEQ and -27% for a deeply red 2008 results,
appear to come back into the
economy, with a gain of STIP. leaving investors worry
market over the course of
14.77%. about the goals set for the
2009.
On the downside, consumer Pharmaceuticals: year 2008.
goods sector registered the For the first two quarter of
biggest slump, with a decline ADWYA recorded a positive Chemical industries:
2009 volumes for stocks, grew
of 10.72%. performance of 90%. The
to TND802 million ($603
increase of the share value The sector closed the year
million) compared to TND685
Insurance: The Best is due to the good Business 2008 on a yield of 8.45%
million ($515 million) a year
Performing Sector Plan presented by the pulled down mainly by
later and daily volumes rose
management in 2008. For ALKIMIA.
also from TND6.6 million ($5
The insurance sector was the first nine months of ALKIMIA ended the year
million) to TND9 million ($6.7
the best performer in 2008, 2008, the total turnover of down 23%. This bad
million).
lead by ASTREE and STAR. the company rose by 17.8%. performance is explained by
ASTREE, which doubled its SIPHAT, was a notable the loss of its biggest
capital to TND20 million by decliner, with shares customer representing
issuing Bonus Shares, dropping 20% on the year. approximately 60% of its
recorded a performance of This is due to the decrease turnover.
172% and STAR gained of total sales of the company
166%, after the in the first nine months of Stocks Volumes, 2009 ($ million)
announcement of its 2008.
privatisation.
Industrial Goods & 145 148
Leasing: A Defensive Sector Services:
103
Tunisie Leasing climbed SOTUVER ended 2008 up
sharply closing the year up 42%. The company came 80
59%, reflecting the under the control of Bayahi 61 66
outperformance of the Group.
company. ATL achieved a
profit of 57% after a capital Distribution:
rise amounted to TND7
million. CIL, Wifak and MAGASIN GENERALE
gained nearly 115% after the Jan-09 feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
Attijari LEASING gained
49%, 42% and 17%, announcement of the
respectively. acquisition of Promogro. Source : www.bvmt.com
This acquisition is a strategic
Banks: Strong fundamentals decision. Indeed, the Daily Volumes, 2009 ($ million)
additional activity will
ATTIJARI BANK which consolidate the objectives of
completed the first phase of attracting a foreign partner. 6.9 6.7
its recovery to overhaul its MONOPRIX finished 2008
portfolio of loans, reported a up 42%. 5.2
strong performance of 88%.
Oil and gas: 4.0
AMEN BANK and UBCI 3.3
gained 29% each. 2.9
Concerning decliners, BH SOTRAPIL recorded the
and STB were down, with largest decline of the year.
shares dropping 4% and The abandonment of the
13% over the year. pipeline project Skhira-Sahel
and lack of visibility about
Jan-09 feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
Source : www.bvmt.com
The contents of this document are made by AMEN INVEST and are given for purely indicative purposes. The accuracy, completeness or relevance of the information 4
provided is not guaranteed although it has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable