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Nam long investment_corporation_report_23042013_mbke

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New Bu w Listing uy Share Targe e price: 16 et price: 21 Micha Micha (84) 8 6,800 1,000 el Kokalari, CFA el.kokalari@ma 38386647 Stock Descrip Information ption: Ticker: Shares Market 3-mth A VNIndex Free flo Major S ASPL (I Nguyen Nam Vie Tran Th A aybank-kimeng Issued (m): Cap (VND b): Avg Daily Turnover x: at (%): Shareholders: (%) reka) n Xuan Quang et (Goldman Sachs hanh Phong Key In ROE – a Net cas NTA/sh Interest dicators annualised (%) sh ($ m): r (UScts): cover (x): SEE A s) APPENDIX (VND): .com.vn I FOR IMPO NLG 95.5 1,614 n/a 480 44 16.3 14.9 9.1 8.9 8.1 n/a 16,113 4.3 ORTANT DI Na Viet Vietna Ikea, t class. costs compe maxim landba “Ehom has re 60/sqm and lo practic Blue-c Ireka ( regard 59%. has th with ov Afford Vietna estate $700/s NLG h long-te availab Stock NLG s becaus real es deliver recogn NLG a Nam L FYE De Revenu EBITDA Net Pro Recurri EPS Gr DPS (V PER (x) EV/EBI Div Yiel P/BV (x Net gea ROE (% ROA (% Source: am Lo tnam’s “ am’s best a the Swedish ong G Ikea” o ffordable re maker of a anies use a nstruction c both design mer satisfact ll generate re apartments despread re s that cost $ y came out o Both compa (NLG’s co etitors), and mise consum ank which wi me” brand a esulted in wi m apartment ook like they cal designs. chip investo a Malaysian ded local PE Those well-he Group of Afford eal estate d affordable, st systematic p costs are m n their prod tion. Also, evenue for th and homes ecognition of 25,000-60,0 of an Ikea c ors: Goldma n real estate E firm) own 3 -known firms agement an ’ experience ng: stable s ng from the a 0-30% in 20 within reach rinking unit is bright, dr gages, still in 45% discou er its recent revenue in profit is set omers, and igh P/B ratio d at low price Summary Ea best man ver 20 years dable housin am is sufferin prices fell 2 sqm) nearly w has been sh erm outlook bility of mortg price at c.4 sold off afte se of falling state. But p red to custo nised. The h acquired land ong Group – ec (VND b) ue A ofit to Sharehold ng Basic EPS ( rowth (%) VND) ) TDA (x) ld (%) x) aring (%) %) %) Company, May ISCLOSUR ders VND) an, Ireka an developer) 32% of NLG s invested in nd corporate focusing on short-term, f after-effects o 12, bringing of middle-cl sizes rather riven by dem n their infanc nt to NAV d t listing on FY12, a hig to jump as revenues o compared es years ago arnings Table 2009 201 ybank KE estim ES AND AN 631 84 215 24 159 18 1,843 2,02 237 35 9.2 8 7.5 6 1.6 1 1.4 2 18.7 3 35.9 18 13.6 7 ates NALYST CE 9 ERTIFICATIO ONS V Vietna p dable Ho eveloper. N tylish furnitur production p more than ducts to min Nam Long he next 10 ye s. High custo f NLG’s Eho 000, take 1-1 catalogue, w d Mekong. and Mekong G, and found Nam Long governance affordable h fantastic lon of a property affordable h lass office w than cutting mographics cy in Vietnam despite imp the HCMC gh P/B and p previously s from those to peers is , increasing e 10 2011 40 734 47 124 87 107 21 1,161 .7 -42.6 56 533 .4 14.6 .5 15.2 .3 1.3 .1 3.2 .9 26.6 .0 8.9 .8 4.0 am 23 Apri ousing il 2013 Nam Long is re for the m process to co 20% below nimise costs g has a 5 ears. omer satisfa ome brand o ½ years to with their ele s like middle ontrol w its and 67ha action f 40- build gant, Goldman Sa g Capital (a ders own ano partly becau e in the indu housing. ng-term outl y bubble, but housing (i.e.. workers. Note g its prices. and the gro m. roving reve stock excha pessimism a sold products prior sales partially bec its relative P achs, well-other use it ustry, look. t real sub-e that The owing enue. ange about s are s are cause /B. 2012 20 462 88 25 258 1 -77.8 3 400 65.5 24.3 1.3 2.4 41.3 2.0 0.8 013F 779 202 107 1,121 334.7 400 15.1 10.9 1.2 2.4 43.1 8.1 3.4
Project Waterpoint Aquamarin North Saigo East Gate Nam Long The Bridge West Saigo Captial Tow Casa Oceana / H The Golfvie Camellia G The Green t Township (inc ne Residences on Residences Residential Are eview on wer Ho Tram ew Garden hill Notes: 1) landbank Valuation the Comp 23 April 2013 Land Total We have only k is 567ha, ove n section below pany Overview Acquisition An Thanh Res. ea I, II, III y listed the co er 85% of whic w. 3) The MB w section belo Planni Zon Key P City/Provin ) Long An HCMC Binh Duong HCMC Can Tho HCMC HCMC HCMC HCMC Vung Tau HCMC HCMC HCMC mpensated la ch is fully com BKE valuation n w for maps wi Skille Nam L • • • • • ing and ning Projects a and Invest nce District Ben Luc Binh Cha g Vinh Phu Dist 9 Cai Ran Dist 7 Binh Tan Dist 7 Dist 9 Xuyen M Dist 9 Binh Cha Dist 9 and area for ea mpensated. 2) numbers abov ith the location ed at the E Product D Design Long excels a Land acq suburban r Planning ample am apartment constructio Product elegant de strategy”). Construct Long’s ow costs and Marketing than cut pr to maintain More detai tment Prop leared Area C c Dist anh Dist u g Dist n Dist Moc anh Dist ach of Nam Lo Details about ve are for NLG ns of the abov Entire Affo at each phas uisition: this real estate d and zoning menities su buildings m on costs dow design: Sta esigns keep tion: An in-h wn standard quicker turn g and sales rices in the a n affordability ils appear in (ha) 390 37 13 17 66 2 6 1< 6 17 1 6 1 perties ong’s projects t Maybank Kim G’s ownership ve. All are loc ordable Ho Constructio on se of the affo s is where m evelopment g: NLG’s wel pport sales make zoning wn. andardisation customer sa house team dised units around time s: the compa aftermath of V y. the ‘Compa NLG Own. 100% 100% 100% 40% 100% 100% 100% 100% 45% 100% 100% 45% 100% Nam Long G above. The c m-Eng valuatio interest in the ated in the so Group . ($k) company’s tot on appear in th e project. 4) S uth of Vietnam ousing Va alue Chain Sales and Marketing ordable hous most of the va in Vietnam. ll-designed c s. Its 9-sto approval qu ing value cha alue is create communities orey (or lo uicker, and n keeps co atisfaction hi osts down w gh (i.e. the experienced ensures low es. any shrank Vietnam’s re at building wer constru unit sizes ra eal estate bu ny overview MBKE Val 97,796 22,727 21,704 11,541 10,988 10,255 9,438 6,537 5,179 5,151 4,241 4,090 2,731 212,380 Source: Nam ’ below Page 2 of 25 674 85879 0 0 m Long tal he See m. n ain: ed in with ower) keep while “Ikea Nam ction ather bble,
23 April 2013 Nam L Nam L afforda 20% b constr buildin The co margin project NLG’s weak those quality This a housin scale surrou depres buildin We ex the fut are on Long’s Strat Long’s exten able housing below those uction busin ng Nam Long ompany’s su n (of c.20% ts, while pr strategy is markets by savings on y materials, b approach ma ng developm up will win unding the re ssion in the ng Vietnam’s xpect Nam L ture, given t n. Low G Some luxury housin as inve would Gross Margi of NLG’s d real estate ng developm estment as o be. We und In any pro differentiat Nam Long The luxury a glut of s affordable Estate Out According for sale i segment – market is f demand in flipped the that our es opment in V opment refe opment activ . ypical, repor as high as 4 since the tim 1) 2) 3) Note develo develo develo prices. The ty been a prices tegy: Compa nsive experie g. The com e of its com ness; its in-g’s arable Marg ence has ma pany’s cons mpetitors du -house team dardised, cos ency allows i developers gher-quality e sales of its ney on con rs in the for ties, etc.. because lon ume game. are over tim estate bubbl f the bubble er the next 1 much large y that both th own stand uperior efficie %) as other roducing hig to foster the saving mo to custome better amenit akes sense b ment is a vol market sha ecent real e aftermath of suburbs ove Long to be a he trajectory ns in Afford etractors po developme ent (c.30% v owning the st derstand that oduct market ted products g has chosen y real estate supply for y housing ma tlook” below) to CBRE, on n HCMC th but we gu for lower-pric n the luxury e wrong way stimate of Vietnam of c r to the gr ity and not to Nam Long G gins, but Hig ade it an effic truction cost ue to a vert m has year st-efficient de t to earn a c s on its aff products. s products in struction co rm of better Group gher Quality cient produc ts are more tically integr rs of experi esigns. comparable g fordable hou In other wo both strong osts and pas r designs, h g-term succe Those who me – especia le subsides ) and the m 0 years sets er company he company dable Housin oint out that nt are much vs 20%), so N tock of an up t argument b t, there are t s and low ma n the latter market in V years to com arket is act ). nly about 30% his year are ess that 70% ced units. It and afforda around ! gross marg c.20% vs ab ross profit o profits attrib rted gross m 40-50% in rec me the land w y cer of than rated ence gross using ords, g and ssing igher ess in afford are equippe ally as the (as well as undane real in. at some po y and the co ng the gross p h higher tha Nam Long is pscale develo ut would poi two strategie argin, mass-v dable ed to hype s the ity of int in untry s for dable active C, etc profit margin an for afford s not as attra oper like VIC nt out that: es – high-ma volume prod ietnam is like me, while the ually quite g argin ucts. ely to suffer e outlook fo good (see “ % of the new e in the aff % of the rea seems to us able markets from r the Real w apartment fordable hou al demand in s that supply s are compl gins for affo out 30% or margin for butable to an margins of d cent years b was acquired units using n the y and etely ordable hou more for lu the real e n increase in developers i because of th d. using uxury state land in Vietnam he run-up in have land Page 3 of 25
23 April 2013 Actua Projec al & Projected ct West S North S The Br d Sales to Cu Saigon Ehome Saigon ridgeview An Tha North S anh Residence Saigon An Tha North S Nam L Nam L anh Residence Saigon Long Residentia Long Residentia Apa Eho Eho Eho Ho es An Nor Lan es An Nor al Area NL al Area NL Nam L In 201 Binh T year it launch Sales the slo sizes sales. day th which We be out, bu pick u expect which quarte (in $ ‘0 Long’s Busi 2, Nam Long Tan district a t will launch h Ehome 8 an of all real e ow market, b and excelle For examp he project wa was launche elieve sentim ut interest ra up a bit mor t both of tho should help erly sales res 000). stomers for 2 2013, $k artments ome 3 ome 4: North Sa ome 5: Bridgevi aigon ew uses (includin Thanh Residen rth Saigon (Binh ness Outloo g launched t and Binh Du the sales of nd 9. state develo but the Nam ent brand na ple: the com as launched ed in August ment in the af ates need to re for a rob ose condition support Nam sults/projectio g townhouse & nces h Duong) nd plots Thanh Residen rth Saigon (Binh Residential Are Residential Are Total revenu nces h Duong) ea I ea I ue The sa followi disclos to be t ales results/ ng unit sale se unit sales too commerc Actual Units so Apartme Houses Land plo & Projected old ents (including town ots (sqm) Reven The co rule ch and FY develo nue and Pro ompany’s FY hange that d Y12. The ru opers to hold ok – Short te the sales of i uong provinc f Ehome 5, 6 Nam Long G erm its Ehome 3 ce, a suburb 6, and 7 and opers in Viet m Long’s high ame/reputati pany’s Ehom to the publi last year, is ffordable hou fall a bit fur bust revival ns to be fulf m Long’s sale ons for 2013 Q 2, Villa) Group and 4 projec of HCMC. d next year i tnam have b h-quality pro on have he me 4 project c, while its E 90% sold. using segme rther and se in overall m illed by the es next year 3 appear in Q1 Q2 221 2,73 2, 6, /projections s estimates s by individu cially sensitiv Unit Sales to nhouse & Villa) ofits Reboun Y13 and FY1 depressed N le change, w d off recogn 0 0 648 72 252 2,14 729 93 271 33 381 57 0 9,52 502 16,96 in the table by product al project as ve). o Customers Q1 55 62 4,325 nd in FY13 14 profits will am Long’s r which came nising reven 2013 cts in This it will been hindere oducts, smal elped suppo t sold out on Ehome 3 pro ed by l unit rt its n the oject, ent has botto ntiment need market sales. end of this y . The compa the tables b 2 Q3 32 3,896 0 2,062 0 937 omed ds to . We year, any’s below 6 3,896 2 2,062 7 2,810 29 1,057 44 4,003 7 489 3 2,584 37 416 31 243 71 571 24 0 68 13,186 6 0 3 182 1 381 6 12,403 Source: Nam L derived from ompany does s this inform above are type (the co s it considers in 2013 2013 Q2 68 57 5,481 l be supporte revenues an into effect i ue on hous Q4 0 ong m the s not ation Q3 Q 226 99 2,882 Q4 265 63 850 m Long Source: Nam ed an accou d profits in F n 2010, req ing units so nting FY11 uired old to Page 4 of 25
23 April 2013 Revenue and 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 201 custom below Nam L blocks cause assure purcha payme constr mers until the “Impact of N Long believe s over 2013-1 revenue an ed because ase price, s ents and ac uction. Profit 2010 - 2014 Revenue(V VND Billion) 0 2011 2 2012 2013E NLG’s about custom Again, and F receive Lookin more o Finally load w for a re financi boosts 2014E revenue for the revenue mers, to subs we would re FY14 should ed advance ng past FY14 of a guess ba y, we would with a debt/e eal estate de ial expenses s the profit gr ess Outlook has a pipeli 0 apartment on average sation, Savi able housing trong deman the units it p ordable hous ble below th ears. As dis 13 and FY14 ment of reven Busin NLG h 14,000 year urbani afforda The st to sell for affo the tab four ye for FY treatm e completed New Regulati es it will com 14, comprise nd profits to customers so it is very ccept delive projects are ons on Nam mplete the co ed of about 1 o surge. The have alrea y likely that ery as and 0 50 0 45 0 40 0 35 0 30 0 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 5 0 recast table es derived fro stantiate its c eiterate that t d be very a customer p 4, the revenu ased on sale like to note equity ratio o eveloper. Fa s about 40% rowth outlook Nam Long G e handed ove Long”). onstruction o 1,400 apartm ese revenue dy paid ab t they will when NLG Pr Group er to buyers (see of nine apart ments – which es are fairly out 70% of make their G completes rofit(VND Bill 2010 2 2011 2012 in the next s om the deliv claim about i the company accurate, as payments for ue projection es progress t that the com of approxima alling interes this year co k for this yea k – Long Te ine of proje units over t e. Due t lls estimates g a year (see nd makes us produces – a sing market t he company scussed in th 4 should be q nues in Viet section goes veries of eac ncreasing re y’s revenue f s the compa r the produc ns in the tabl this year and mpany has ately 0.4x, w st rates are e ompared to F ar. rm ects which w he next five o demogra s that HCM “Affordable s confident th lthough we d to remain so has estimat he section ab quite accura nam requirin ment h will well f the final s the 2013E 2014 4E m Long detail final Y13. FY13 ready eliver. come s into more d ch project to evenues in FY forecast for F any has alr cts it will de le below bec d next. a moderate well within re expected to l FY12, which will produce years, or ov phics, cultu C will need Housing Out hat the comp do expect the oft for the res ted its reven bove, the rev ate because o ng that real Source: Nam debt ason ower also around 12, ver 2,000 un ural trends 70,000 uni tlook” below) pany will be e overall dem st of this yea nues for the venue projec of the accou estate reve ,000- nits a and ts of ). able mand ar. In next ctions nting nues Page 5 lion) of 25
Actual & Project North Saig The Bridge The Golfvi The Green Aquamarin East Gate Waterpoin North Saig Waterpoin Aquamarin Waterpoin Aquamarin Oceana An Thanh North Saig Nam Long Nam Long Nam Long Nam Long Oceana Aquamarin Waterpoin Casa 23 April 2013 Projected Re gon eview iew nhill ne Residences nt gon nt ne nt ne evenues by P Residences gon g Residential A g Residential A g Residential A g Residential A ne nt Apa Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Ho (in Nor Wa Aqu Wa Aqu Oce Lan An Nor Area I NL Area III NL Area II NL Tan Area I NL Oce Aqu Wa Cas Lon only b custom occur f Reven year a reason marke below. be recognise mer – but the for units that nues in the f and next, bu nable revenu t to improve . Project 2012 - artments ome 1, 2: East S ome 4: North Sa ome 5: Bridgevi ome 6: Golfview ome 7: Greenhi ome 8: Aquama ome 9: East Ga ome 10: Waterp 2016 Saigon aigon ew w ll arine ate point uses ncluding townh rth Saigon (Binh aterpoint (Long A uamarine Town aterpoint (Long A uamarine Villa eana Villa ed when th e company h t have alread following yea ut so far this ue picture in e next year, house & Villa) h Duong) An) Townhouse house An) Villa nd plots Thanh Residen rth Saigon (Binh Residential Are Residential Are Residential Are n Thuan Dong Residential Are eana Hotel Lan uamarine Land aterpoint (Long A sa ng Thanh My nces h Duong) ea I ea III ea II ea I d An) Villa Other reven Total revenu ue ue The lo due to the co most o A subs to its proxim pointe minute rapidly middle One ca area te footwe the loc onger-term ou the strong o mpany’s abi of the compa stantial porti large Water mity to the hi d out that t es’ drive) bu y and every e-class worke aveat, howev ends be foc ear and furni cation of NL 2012 4,667 1,667 e 86 0 1,700 4,952 3,333 1,952 3,657 22,014 he products as a quite ac dy been sold ars will be q s year’s sale 2015, and w as discusse utlook for Na outlook for af lity to execu any’s projects on of the co rpoint projec ghway to do this project t our respon major city in ers living in t ver, is that th used on low ture, while t LG’s North S 2013 Nam Long G are deliver ccurate view to customer uite depende es figures se we expect sa ed in “Real E Group red to the w of when tha rs. ent on sales eem to supp ales of the ov Estate Overv 2014 201 1111 15 2016 13,883 19,7 15,611 27,5 14,269 12,9 13,313 2,3 9,225 2,189 1 1 2,082 765 1,714 9,524 11,605 2 37,106 11 am Long is h ffordable hou ute, and beca s. ompany’s futu ct in Long A owntown HC is far from nse to that is the world h he suburbs. he FDI which wer value-add he FDI that Saigon Ehom end-at will s this ort a verall view” 753 19,567 506 1,487 910 349 829 37,531 263 22,464 23,8 14,2 11,034 0 17,450 17,4 450 22,186 233 15,218 775 4,888 13,2 9,7 1,8 869 2,858 044 943 4,599 844 4,841 5,044 5,0 9 2,8 5,462 19,0 20,1 048 19,048 115 40,631 22,052 21,7 18,119 212,6 741 17,299 673 246,784 Source: Nam Lo highly favoura using in the s ause of our f able, in our v south of Viet favorable vie ure revenues An (which is MC). Some HCMC’s C s simple – H as a substan s are attribu located in c e detractors CBD (circa 3 HCMC is gro ntial portion into the Lon es like garm into Binh Du s moving up h has flowed ded industrie has flowed me project, i 34,168 Page 6 of 25 77 148 688 8 91 81 94 ong view, nam, ew of table close have 35-45 owing of its ng An ents, uong, p the
23 April 2013 value earma sophis homes paying HCMC We ha III proj attract not as Can T Can T in com surrou want t agricu city as farm d The o specifi center specul severa the Na sell al particu NAV e Finally below, from. Long-T chain. A h arked for th sticated mec s in the Nor g jobs locally C for the fore ave also visit jects in Can tive but the compelling. Tho city has Tho bridge in mmodity price unding provin to buy apar ltural region) s students or due to increas verall pictur ic area wher r of the city lation in the al (unattractiv am Long pro l the units i ular micro-ma estimate belo y, we’ve rep , to give an i high proport he manufac chanical com rth Saigon E y, while Wate seeable futu ted the comp n Tho city. particular ar been growin 2010 slashe es over the nces more w rtments in C ), 3) the child young adult sed mechan e for the cit re Nam Lon y, seems to lead-up to ve) uncompl oject. We ha n its Can T arket need to ow. plicated the dea of wher Term Project EH EH E Home 3: West S Home 4: North S EHome 5: Bridg E E E Ehome 6: Go Ehome 7: Gre home 8: Aquam Ehome 9: East home 10: Wate ast Gate Reside Can T Camelia G Aquam Tho Residential A Wate Plan 2012 201 Saigon Saigon eview olfview eenhill marine t Gate erpoint ences arden marine Areas erpoint tion of FDI cture of pro mponents. W Ehome proje erpoint reside re. pany’s Nam The develo rea where th Nam Long G in the Binh oducts like We guess res ect will be a ents will nee Group h Duong are electronics sidents who able to find ed to commu Long Reside pment is pr he developm ng rapidly fo ed travel tim last few yea wealthy (our Can Tho – dren of those s – and they isation. ty continues g’s project i o have bee the Can Th leted develo ave no doubt ho developm o fall more. ea is and o buy high-ute ential Area I ristine and h ment is locate or a few reas es to HCMC ars has mad understand the capital e farmers wa y are no long , II & highly ed is sons: 1) the C, 2) the incr de farmers in ing is that m of the sout ant to move to er needed o new rease n the many thern o the n the t the o the state e are ity to ble to n this n our romising bu while close to d by real e ening. There close proxim ny will be ab ink prices in his opinion in s to looks p s located, w en impacted o bridge ope opments in c t the compan ment, but thi We reflect th company’s e its future s own long-te sales and rev 13 2014 2015 plan come erm project venues will c 2016 2017 2 2018 2019 20 020 Source: Nam m Long Page 7 to of 25
MBKE Rev Project Aquamarine Residences Camellia Gar North Saigon Ehome Waterpoint Township 22 Waterpoint Township 12 The Golfview The Greenhil Captial Towe Nam Long Residential A Nam Long Residential A Nam Long Residential A The Oceana East Gate Residences The Bridgevie West Saigon Ehome An Thanh Residences Casa 23 April 2013 valuation of N NLG Key Proje nce City/ Provin HCMC rden HCMC n Binh Duong 2ha Long A 3ha Long A w HCMC ll HCMC er HCMC Area 1 Can T Area 2 Can T Area 3 Can T Vung T HCMC ew HCMC HCMC Long A HCMC District C Binh Ch C Binh Ch g Vinh Ph An Ben Luc An Ben Luc C Dist 9 C Dist 9 C Dist 7 ho Cai Ran ho Cai Ran ho Cai Ran Tau Xuyen M C Dist 9 C Dist 7 C Binh Ta An Ben Luc C Dist 9 NAV E To est project consid assets large b We al Savills a yea compr project presen copy o Estimate timate Nam ts to the va dered what d s (an advant bank is that w so took into s and Cushm ar ago. W rehensive NA t. This is nted below, of that work w ects t To otal Site A Area (ha) hanh Dist hanh Dist hu c Dist 2 c Dist 1 ng Dist ng Dist ng Dist Moc an Dist c Dist Notes: project, of the la yet to b Long’s NAV luations of c distressed inv tage of being we have acce o account th man & Wakef We are in AV model ba a more amb so investors when it has b C Ar Comp. rea (ha) 37.41 5.97 15.97 222.00 2 127.00 1 1.16 0.86 0.14 6.41 15.42 43.81 16.89 17.83 n/a 6.39 n/a 5.62 1) MBKE Valu , 2) In some c and/sqm does be incurred for V, we compa comparable vestors woul g a stockbro ess to such i he paid valu field for most the proce ased on our bitious unde s should fee been comple Rat o Ar te/sqm f Site rea ($) 28.86 5.97 13.13 12.00 12.00 1.16 0.86 0.14 4 6.41 11.95 23.69 16.89 17.83 2.30 6.39 7.21 5.62 uation is the v cases above t s not equate to r the project. Nam Long G red each of real estate ld be willing oker under t information). uation work t of NLG’s ke ss of deve forecast cas ertaking then l free to con ted. % O NLG wns 79 10 152 4 165 10 31 10 20 10 366 10 318 10 4,669 10 97 10 33 10 29 10 31 10 208 4 509 10 148 10 146 10 205 4 value of NLG’s the compensa o the MBKE d Group Nam Long’s projects, and to pay for N he umbrella s key d we NLG’s of a done by CB ey projects n eloping a m sh flows for n what we ntact us to g MB Valu ($ ' 00% 22 45% 4 00% 21 00% 65 00% 21 00% 4 00% 2 00% 6 00% 6 00% 2 00% 2 00% 5 40% 11 00% 10 00% 9 00% 10 45% 5 Totals: 212 So s ownership in ted area multi due to addition BRE, early more each have get a Book lue 610 595 326 643 638 562 562 864 675 760 942 409 444 207 120 885 452 694 m Long Page 8 BKE uation 000) NLG Val ,727 12,6 ,090 1, ,704 6, ,296 33,6 ,952 9,6 ,241 ,731 ,537 3, ,205 2,6 ,055 3, ,729 2, ,151 4 ,541 2,4 ,255 3,2 ,438 7, ,548 6, ,179 6,4 ,380 104, ource: MBKE, Nam nterest in each iplied by the v nal costs and t of 25 hv alue taxes
23 April 2013 Projec ct Name Water Thanh rpoint Townsh h residences) Nam L Long Resident Aquam marine Reside North West S Saigon Saigon East G Gate Residenc Ho Tra am/Oceana The B Capita Casa ridgeview al Tower llia Garden Golfview Greenhill Came The G The G C ip (inc An tial Area ences ces MBKE (USD ‘0 MBKE V NLG Bo Capital G Minority Net Pre- Cap Ga Net Cap NLG Ov MBKE B Adjusted Shares Share P BVPS (V Disc-to- Nam Comp Site Are (ha) 390 66 37 13 6 17 17 2 1< 6 6 1 1 NAV Analysi 000s) Valuation of Key ook Value of Key Gain on Project y Shareholders P -Tax Gains ins Tax (@ 25% pital Gain on Pro verall Book Valu Book Value Adju d Book Value (m) Price VND) NAV is y Projects y Projects ts Portion of Gain %) ojects ue per Balance S ustment Long Com ea Sheet mpany Ov NLG’s la verview argest townshi Apts, det center lo Apts, det 10km fro Apts, det 14 apart Detache schools, Resort w targeted Apt build Nam Lon High-clas 10km fro Mid to hi 5 apartm Apt build Project Des p project, 30k tached and se ocated in Can tached and se om CBD tached and se ment buildings d houses, hig 9 km from CB with hotels, det at the upper-i ding with 983 u ng's HQ office ss detached h om city center gh-end apartm ment buildings, ding with 275 u emi-detached Tho, the 2nd la emi-detached emi-detached s in Binh Tan h-end apartm BD tached houses income marke units in Dist. 7 e building, 12 s houses and ap ments in Binh , 10km from C units, 15km fro 212,380 104,694 107,686 6,353 101,333 25,333 75,999 60,604 75,999 136,604 96 16,800 30,039 -44% cription km from CBD houses, hosp argest city in t houses in Bin Group pital and rec, the south of VN nh Chanh Dist. houses 19km Dist., 13 km fr ents, commer Nam Long G N ., North of CBD rom CBD rcial areas and s and service et 7, 5 km from C stories, 80% le partments loca CBD eased out ated in Dist. 9, Chanh Dist., CBD om CBD apartments 10 km from C Source: Nam Page 9 of 25 D d , BD m Long
23 April 2013 Afford The pa this re aligned high-q The co years, HCMC previo There such comm and Q for lux Vietna that da compa We un poor q To be quality afforda an ove Unfort afforda tiny m has a dable Housin arallels we d port are not d its culture uality afforda ompany has with some m C’s D7, and l usly sold pro are other w as HAG, odity/resourc QCG a develo xury automo am’s real est abbled in rea any, and PNJ nderstand th quality with s clear, we a y affordable h able housing ersupply of h unately for in able housing arket caps ( market cap o Skilled In add previo thems real es the ma These to the the typ typical scaling custom Nam L develo apartm due to which typical are nin and al know various ng is in the drew betwee stretched. and busine able housing focused on minor side a leases out 8 ojects, has on well-known af which see ces business oper run by obiles that h tate bubble al estate suc J, a jewelry c at many affo shoddy const re not sayin housing, but g units in Vie igh-quality u nvestors, so g units are eit one popular of $20m). d Developer dition to the us section, w elves toward state market arket which is developers drawing boa pical 80-90s ly offered by g back the q mers in order Long has bui opers cannot ment building o standardisa also gives a 36 months ne stories h lso makes it that taller bu s complicatio Fabric of Na en Nam Long Nam Long m ess activities g. developmen activities: it o 80% of the fl ne resort pro ffordable ho ems to hav ses such as a mother-an has been h also produc h as HPG, a company. ordable apar truction, leak g that NLG t while there etnam (more nits. me of the ot ther unlisted r affordable r of Affordab e affordable we are also ds affordable is supported s more linked are reorient ard to shrink sqm offering y NLG. Som quality of the r to lower sel lt a core com t match. Its gs are more ation of desi quicker turn for other de igh, which m t easier to g uildings crea ons in the zo Nam Long G am Long’s D g and Ikea in made a serie s around the Group DNA n the headlin es of choices e developme nt of affordab owns its HQ oors, it man oject, etc.. using develo ve switched rubber, sug nd-son team it by a ser ced a stream steel compa ne of s that ent of ble housing fo office buildin ages some or 20 ng in of its opers in Viet d its focus ar, iron ore, with a penc ries of scan m of corpora any, KDC, a tnam s to etc., chant dals. ations food in HCMC a uneven floo producer of an oversupp low), there is rtment units ky roofs and is the only p currently is e on that bel ther produce , or are listed housing stoc ble Housing housing de aware of de e housing b d by real dem d to real esta ting their pro k the unit siz s of most d me develope eir interiors o lling prices. mpetency in construction than 20% b gn and verti naround time evelopers. A makes the b get zoning a ate more eco oning process are of oring. high-ply s not ers of high-qu d companies ck is TDH, w g evelopers m evelopers wh because this mand, unlike ate speculati oduct offering zes of their developers, t ers are also or delivering uality s with which mentioned in ho are reorie segment o the upper e on. gs by going apartments to the 40-60 cutting cost g empty she affordable ho n costs of c elow those o cally integra e of 12-18 m Also, most of buildings sim pproval (loca onomic valu s). n the nting f the nd of back from 0sqm ts by lls to ousing that t .$270/sqm fo of its compe ated construc months vs a m f NLG’s build mpler to cons al zoning bo e, which cre these or its titors ction, more dings struct oards eates Page 10 of 0 of 25
23 April 2013 The hi brand in the associ their q igh satisfacti the only oth market next iated with the uality). Focus Anothe the so during initiate that m develo marke In con predom below. ion of Nam her widely rec t to industry e affordabilit sed on the S er decision t outh of Vietn the real es ed projects in many of th opers that ru t. ntrast, NLG h minantly in t . Can Long’s custo cognised aff giant HAG ty of that com South of Viet the company nam where i state bubble n the then-ho hose project ushed in did Nam Long G omers has m fordable hou (whose bran mpany’s prod tnam y made whic t has clear e, there was ot Danang m ts were no not have a has focused he greater H ong An ects (384ha) 3 proje Tho s (72 ha) 3 projects Skilled Most Vietna proces landow and in protrac are re sausag Fund politica acquis which “lando countr Lo d at Land Ac of the value am occurs at ss by which wners and th nvolves entan cted compen eminded of ges, but no o managers n al power in sition and co can take f wners” in V ry’s land). Group made its “Eho sing brand n nd name is m ducts rather ch we applau expertise. A s a rush of market. Our ot successf deep unde its efforts o HCMC area, Binh 1 projec Duong ct (16ha) ome” name more than ud is to focu few years developers understandi ul because erstanding of on the south as can be s 8 projects (78 cquisition e created in t the land ac h land is ac hen re-zoned nglements w nsation nego the analogy one wants to new to Vietn Vietnam is mpensation rom 5-10 y Vietnam (eve HCMC 8 ha) n suburban cquisition sta cquired from d into use fo with local gov otiations with y to sausag o know how t nam should t s more diffu in Vietnam ears becaus en though th us on s ago that ng is the f that of Vietnam, seen in the m , and maps Vung Tau project (17 ha 1 p real estate age. We und m farmers an or housing is vernment of all the invol es – everyo hey are mad take note th use than in is a more pr se of the s he state tech a) developme derstand tha nd/or other s intricate, m fficials as we lved parties. one likes to de. hat the natu China, so rotracted pro uperior righ hnically own nt in at the local messy ell as We o eat re of land ocess ts of ns all Page 11 of 25
23 April 2013 NLG’s made with a townsh and B govern compa profita long track it one of the strong en hip developm CI or real e nment depar any) have t ble township Towns Towns center politica 40ha t After a as roa develo housin actual the inf is a mu Since the po most o the re develo develo last se of infra pro qu record of n e few private nough land ment. Usua estate develo rtments (NBB the political p developme ship Develo ship develop red around al connectio to 500ha (or acquiring the ads, sewers opers or ind ng; the origi building of h frastructure d uch easier b township de ortion of the s of the value i eason the opment is opment. All ection have astructure de uo between th Major Anothe proxim townsh CBD a The co is loca from d a few opene of the road s Nam L Can T betwee agricu prices, (which Finally infrast navigating t sector real e acquisition ally only SO opers like N B came from connections nt projects. opment – a P pment is hig land acquis ns to secur larger) direc e land, the d s, etc. and ividuals. Th nal townshi houses and/o development usiness than evelopment suburban rea is created, th government to facilitate of the othe construction evelopment he township Infrastructu er source of mity of its la hip developm are particular ompany’s lar ated in Long downtown HC years ago d, but that h city, so the d ystem inside Long’s large ho bridge wh en HCMC a lture area. T , including in h is not close y, we would ructure deve Nam Long G he land acq estate develo competenc OE developer NBB which w m the SOE r s needed t Profitable Bu ghly profitab sition. In sh re large swa tly from the g eveloper bu then sells hose plots a p developer or apartmen t is not neglig n building and is focused o al estate dev his is a highly t allows hig e suburban r township d businesses (the whole a developers a ure Develop f value creat andbanks to ment and o rly geared to rgest project An, 30km f CMC. This d before the r highway ends drive time w e HCMC is g Can Tho to hich opened and this key That bridge le n the areas w to this new like to menti elopment in Group quisition pro opers in Viet cy to unde rs like DIG, were spun o road constru to secure h usiness ble because hort, the dev aths of land government. ilds basic in plots of la are ultimately r may also t blocks as w gible (c. $50 d selling hou on land acq velopment va y profitable b gh profitabi n and othe developers m focused on arrangement and the gove pment Benef tion for Nam o major infra other project infrastructur t, The Water rom HCMC rive time is a recently built s currently e ill improve ev radually imp ownship dev in 2010 and y city in the ed to a mini-where ocess tnam rtake SJS out of uction highly the busines veloper use d anywhere ss is es its from such other d into f the ost of t this ents. ch is where art of nship cture n the pects quid frastructure and on to o y developed do some of well. The co -70/sqm) bu uses/apartme uisition, whic alue chain w business. Pa lity in town er infrastruc mentioned in n various asp is a sort of ernment). fit Nam’s Lo Long’s proj astructure p ts). Land pr re developme rpoint townsh and about a vast impro t Trung Luo nds abruptly ven more in roved. velopment be d dramatically heart of th -boom in Ca ong’s develo Nam L bridge). on that we’v HCMC rece ong’s Projec jects is the c rojects (for rices outside ent. hip developm 45-minute ovement from ong highway y at the perip the future a cts close both e the ment, drive m just was phery s the enefited from y cut travel t he Mekong D n Tho real e opment is loc ve noticed a ently. This is m the times Delta state cated up in g that distinct pick s something Page 12 2 of 25
23 April 2013 Highway H 1A, T and Vinh Lo Western W Bus S 1 1) Binh Chan Highways Van Linh, 1 Nguyen 1A and 50 other also co One t infrast way fo turn su via dire Local effectiv directly the pa metho causes make Hanoi, A map labels Tan Tao c IPs, Station 2) Binh Tan nh analysts and ommented o theory we h ructure boom or the govern upport the ba ect lending a real estate p ve method o y buying rea ast. Infrastru d of suppor s high inflatio land and a , where price p of Nam Lo identifying n d fund mana n in informal have heard m because i nment to sup anks which h and/or via loa prices benefi of supporting al estate proj ucture deve rting real es on. And this partment bu es fell the mo ng’s projects new/impendin agers based l discussions is that Viet nfrastructure pport the pro have large e ans backed b t from new r g real estate jects, an ide lopment wou state prices s method wo uildings on t ost, more des s in HCMC a ng infrastruct 5) CBD 3) D District 9 Thu Thiem East Wes Road 4) District t 7 Eas Road, D Nam Long G d in HCMC s at social ga tnam is on e developme operty marke exposure to r by real estate roads, so this e prices than a which has uld also be than printin ould be espe the peripher sirable. appears belo ture in close Group and Hanoi atherings, etc the cusp o ent is an effi et, which wou real estate p e collateral. s is a more n the govern s been moote a more targ ng money, w ecially effectiv ry of HCMC have c.. of an icient uld in prices cost-ment ed in geted which ve to and ow, together proximity. Highwa HCMC H Tunnel, t Ring d ay Hanoi, High Tech ark, P st West Ring Phu My Hun Bridge r with Page 13 ng 3 of 25
23 April 2013 Real Afford Severa the aff trends urbani develo prefere and 5) As can young mean familie townho Estate Ma dable Housin al factors ma fordable hou will lead to sation and d opment), 3) ence of Vietn ) the growing n be seen in . A mass of that these es and pre ouses in the Vietnam 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 arket Over ng Outlook ake us very sing market o a shortage developmen ) Vietnam’s namese to h g availability o the diagram f young peop couples no fer instead suburbs. m Age Profile Furthe cities, year g emerg will live One t efficien fertilise the Me ongoin and HC Vietna means pletho phone of two attract industr A simi estima e Tota below20 rview – Long Term y optimistic a in Vietnam: e of afforda t of the cou Nam Long G m (5 years) about the lon 1) demogra ble housing untry (includi n density, vings in gold tgages. age structure ng married, b t to live with their own population hold their sav of retail mort below, the a ple are gettin longer want to live in al Population ermore, only so the urba going forwa ging Asian co e in its major thing contrib ncy of Vietn ers/pesticide ekong Delta ng inflow of CMC. am’s continu s that many ra of high-t s. Binh Duo o suburbs o ting FDI to its rial parks is D lar story is h ate that the 20- (%) -40 about 30% anisation rate ard. If Vietn ountries, tha r cities 10 ye buting to u nam’s agricu es, more me will need fe young adult above 45 of Vietnam’s e is expecte nam follows an its likely t ears from now rbanisation ulture (i.e. b echanisation) wer workers ts from agric ued inflow o y of these s tech factorie ong, where so of HCMC tha s industrial p Dong Nai). happening in country wil Group ng-term futu aphic and cu , 2) the ong ing infrastruc 4) the cu d and real es re of ltural going cture ltural state, e of the coun but cultural s h their exte apartment s population ed to remain in the foo that about h w. is the grad bigger farms ). This mea s in the future culture famili of FDI into emi-skilled w es assembl ome of NLG at have bee parks (the oth ntry is shifts nded s or lives in its m n well over 3 otsteps of o alf of its citi major 3% a other izens dually impro , greater us ans that farm e, reinforcing ies into Can the manufa workers will ing electron ’s projects ar en particular her HCMC s Hanoi, whic ll actually h oving se of ms in g the Tho acturing ind find jobs in nics and m re located, is rly successf suburb with m ch has led th have a 900s ustry n the mobile s one ful in many he governme sqm shortag ent to ge of Page 14 4 of 25
23 April 2013 housin afforda ng by 2015, able housing Vietna We wo surpris per ca countr prefere estate Some that a than o until th apartm own re , ¾ of whic g the country am – a Crow ould like to m sed at how h apita. The fir ry, as can ence of the , which is a c visiting fund luxury apar ne in HCMC hey consider ments in Thai eal estate. Popula Country Korea, S Japan Philippi Vietnam China Indones Thailan Malaysi ch will be a needs. wded Countr make two oth high real esta rst point is th be seen in Vietnamese cultural artifa d managers t rtment in Ba C, despite Th r factors like iland and the ation Densitie y South ines m sia d ia We wo French c.8m p One o bulk of HCMC upper es in Asia ould also like h designed population; d f the criticism f its landban C will is now end housing Growi The m home family. produc Long. About buyers predom Also, m These Vietna The m lending ing Availabi mortgage mar purchases in . A nascent cts in the p 50% of Na s who get a m minately paid mortgages a figures ind am. mortgage ma g to SOEs, ry that Love er points to ate prices in he relatively h n the table e to hold the act of the cou to HCMC init angkok is no ailand’s muc population d e cultural pre Population ( 49 127 94 88 1,347 242 68 29 e to mention Saigon to b owntown, th ms some obs nk is far from too expens g products m lity of Mortg rket in Vietna n Vietnam w mortgage m primary mark am Long’s a mortgage fro d for in cash re not availa dicate the up arket is also corporate m) Per Ca one point th be a much s e streets are servers have m the center ive for afford ake econom gages am is still in were financed market exists ket by recog affordable ap om the bank, h (i.e. with “fr able yet for s pside poten o set to take buccaneers shortfall in Nam Long G Group n the amoun es Gold and investors wh Vietnam are high populati below. The eir savings untry’s long h tially find it s t that much ch higher per density, the eference of th apita Income 23,067 46,407 2,370 1,392 5,439 3,495 5,318 9,977 nt of Real Estate ho are somet e relative to ion density o e second is in gold and history of war surprising to more expen r capita inco greater supp he Vietname e times GDP of the s the real rs. learn nsive me – ply of se to . km Source: United N hat is specific smaller city e small, quain e made abou of HCMC. dable housin ic sense the Nations The urrent ed. at the ter of id-to-most c to HCMC. than the cu nt, and packe ut NLG is tha But the cent ng – only mi re. its infancy. d with loans s for purchas gnised deve In the past, from friends ses of real e elopers like partments ar but house p riends and fa secondary m tial for mort s and state Nam re purchase purchases are amily” financ market purcha tgage lendin e off becaus and other Pop per sq. 486 334 316 267 141 127 135 87 ed by e still cing). ases. ng in se after yea speculators rs of who Page 15 5 of 25
23 April 2013 create come third o produc the fu includi Past e easter when m d an NPL dis to recognise of Vietnames cts are signif ture for the ng mortgage experiences rn Europe s mortgage fin Afford We be sufficie probab to clea the go broker the un produc (Note CBRE centra We ex their c again. afforda officer year, 2 stabilis measu some We ex housin bumpi worst i dable Housin elieve that p ently such t bly take up to ar. Estimates overnment an rs are aroun nsold real es cts. that the job and Savills lised official xpect prices current levels The reason able housing workers, wi 2) we see pa sed, and the ures will act a real support xpect the res ng market an ng along the is over for th Office Mark ecent stabilis pect to happ of office spa cy rate in HC m $80/sqm t ecent stabilis ntrinsic dem ts moving ou t the same ti t interest in t ries has caus o not expect ent this year Is the The re we exp a glut vacanc fall fro The re real, i tenant and at robust industr We do segme saster for the e the huge o se hold a ba ficantly highe e banking in es. in the housin show that p nancing beco e banking ind opportunity of ank account, er than on co ndustry in V Nam Long G dustry, Vietn f retail banki and NIMs o orporate and Vietnam is in ng markets o roperty price omes widely a ng Outlook prices in the hat the mar o 2-3 years f s of the ove nd profession d $4-5b, alth tate inventor Group am’s banks ing. Less th on retail ban SOE lendin n retail ban of countries es are sign available. – Short Ter affordable h rket is near for the curre erall real est nal real esta hough our u ry in Vietnam of professio in Vietnam i land registry in the afford s, then stay ns we expec g is nearly w ith falling int arallels betwe e affordable as a catalyst to the marke st of 2013 to nd for Vietna e bottom but e low end of have han a nking g, so nking, like Brazil a nificantly boo rm (1 year) housing segm equilibrium ent supply-de tate inventor te research understandin m is compris onal real est is complicate y). dable housin firm for the ct price stab within reach terest rates s een the offic housing ma t to improve et. o be slow a am’s econom t with a clea f the real esta ket a Preview ation of the o pen in the aff ace came ont CMC to shoo to about $30/ ation of the G mand for off ut of inferior me, the cont the country b sed the take the same th because inte nd in osted ment have f , although it emand imbal ry overhang firms/comme g is that mo sed of higher tate research ed by the fac fallen t will ance from ercial ost of r-end hers at firms ct that there s like is no near rising re: 1) class hin a cently mulus give to stabilise ears before r ear future ar s of middle-c the gap with hich has rec ernment stim nd may also ng segment next 2-3 ye ility in the ne h of a mass set to close ce market, w rket, 3) gove sentiment a and steady fo my as a who r upward bia ate market. w of the Affo office leasing fordable hous to the marke ot up to 25% /sqm. Grade A & B fice space. office space tinued inflow by multinatio -up rate for n hing to happ erest rates n or the afford ole, which is as. We think ordable Hou g market is a sing market. et, causing th % and Grade dable s still k the using Marke preview of Two years he Grade A o e A office ren office leasin There has e into better w of FDI into onal compan new office sp pen in the af eed to fall a et? what ago, office nts to ng rates is d been a rus quality build Vietnam and ies in a rang pace to soar. ffordable hou bit more to r ue to sh of dings d the ge of . using reach Page 16 6 of 25
23 April 2013 the aff their a housin fordability cr appetite for ng is probably Falling We ex lending up the deman We be Our vi centra like to Inflatio horizo correc riteria we out lending (als y not quite a g Interest R xpect interes g again by th eir NPL‘s. nd. elieve lendin iew is predic l bank, inclu see lending on is currentl n that cloud ction in the pr Inflatio tlined below so, the pen as strong as t ates st rates fall he end of the This should , and banks nt-up deman that for qualit a bit more t e year as the d trigger a g rates shou cated on rep uding SBV go rates fall to y running at ds the inflat rices of oil an on Under Con 30% % 25% % 20% % 15% % 10% % 5% % 0% % ntrol Y/Y CPI 2006 2007 Afford The fo within unders that th gross We ha manag who h and in like the for inc 35%. specia 7 2008 dable Housin ollowing tab reach of a m standing, the he monthly m monthly inco ave identified ger in a Vietn as a wife w industries li e “Big Four” comes in this Note that t al loan progra Group need to res nd for afford ty office spac this year an ey make pro surge in aff uld fall to c. peated com overnor Binh 10% if inflatio 6.6% and w tion picture, nd other com ng is Almos le illustrates mass of eme e standard te mortgage pa ome. d what we th namese com working as a ke finance o ” audit firms, s bracket is the 6% inte amme descri Nam Long G sume dable ce). start aning using nd banks to gress in clea fordable hou 10% by the ments from h, that the go on remains b we do not see especially g mmodities. 2009 20 010 2011 st… Afforda s that afford erging middle est of afforda ayment shou end of the y members o overnment w below 7%. e anything o given the re ble dable housin e-class office ability by mo uld be no m hink a realist mpany with fiv secretary (s r for workers etc.). Note c.20%; the rest rate in ibed in the ne year. of the would n the ecent 2012 2 2013 ng is now n e workers. In ortgage office ore than 30 tic salary for ve years’ wo salaries are s in professio e that the tax maximum in the table a ext section. early n our ers is % of r a typical m rking experie higher at M onal service x rate in Viet ncome tax ra bove refers middle ence, MNCs firms tnam ate is to a Page 17 7 of 25
23 April 2013 Afforda Profess Secreta Apartm Down P Loan Pr Term (y Interest Loan Pm Loan Pm ability Analys sional Salary ary Salary ent/Home Cos Payment rinciple yrs) t Rate mt mt / Gross Inco Gover The go end of earma borrow The p fixed f proper smalle marke We are have o feature borrow for the loans, only fix proper Also, w govern marke purcha things distant sis, in USD t ome rnment Supp overnment h f the real est arked $1.4b wers of low-c rogramme w for the first t rties must co er than 70 s t. e not clear h on the mark e of the pro wers’ interest e first three linked to ba xed for six m rties, given th we believe t nment annou t. We do ases of real like minor t t) future. New R The fin marke impact bubble the lon These financi who h unders port Measur has come ou tate market, in soft loan cost housing. will provide three years ost below VN sqm – which how much im ket vis-à-vis ogramme, in t rates (and t years. Most anks’ deposit months at mo he wide swin that this and unced should not expect estate signi tax cuts and Regulations nal topic to t are a few ted the mar e, helped def nger term. measures ing needs, s have recentl stand how th Decrease R cover in this w key regula rket. The m flate prices b impacted r so it is parti y started lo hese changes 1,000 400 50,000 10,000 40,000 15 6% 338 24% res t with some the most im s to provide subsidised l of the mort ND15m/$715 h is exactly mpact this su the supply n addition to their monthly t mortgages t rates, so b ost. That inc ngs in interes d the other s d help suppo the other m ificantly – th d REITs at Revenues, In s discussion atory change measures, e but will also l real estate icularly impo ooking at Vi s have affect 10 4 31 Nam Long G measures to portant of wh e cheap mo loans at a 6 gage’s 15-ye per sqm, an Nam Long’s bsidised loan overhang, b o a low inte y loan payme in Vietnam orrowers’ loa creases their st rates in rec support mea rt sentiment measures to hose other in some point ncrease Fina about Vietn es in 2010 enacted in t lead to a hea firms’ finan ortant for ov ietnam’s pro ted local rea Group e low t has end-rate, igible sizes of the e will active that fixed rate s are o buy h the state actual clude bably ds state cantly f the try in and stors et to s. Page 18 0% 30 1% o support the hich is that it ortgages for 6% interest ear life. Eli nd have unit s s segment o n programme but one attra rest rate, is ents) will be are floating an payments hesitancy to cent years. asures which in the real e o support a ncentives inc in the (prob ancing Need nam’s real e that signific the wake of althier indust cial results verseas inve operty marke l estate firms 15% 560 40% 8 of 25
23 April 2013 The m most importan • • • Impac The ac Long’s and pr after t stop re were c This c booke (remem a proje There custom revenu alread hando Those balanc levera compa payme revenu nt rule chang : This rule l with advance peculators b ments of c when constr leted), with t n. te developer ng to borrow more distress ubble years due to their customer pay 9: This rule r marked for ation process fect Nam Lon had already effect, but CI. enue Recogn m previously n accounting as they colle only able to viously sold eted and han Decree 71 projects w bubble, s downpaym payments was comp completion Real estat avoid havi not been m the post-b leveraged advance c Decree 69 land earm compensa did not aff landbank came into such as BC New Reve in Vietnam recognition revenues are now o were prev are comple ct of New Re ccounting ru s profits dipp rofits will sho he revenue ecognising r completed. caused reven d now tha mber that NL ect). is little cha mers becaus ue recognitio y paid 70-8 ver. advance pa ce sheet, giv ged than it anies). It a ents on Nam ue. es are: imited real e customer pa bought mult .20%, and ruction starte the hope of estate firms’ ayments. A tiple apartm then mak ed (but befor “flipping” the rs used adv w from the b sed real esta is that many r previous ab yments. aised taxes acquisition s had not be ng much bec y been fully Decree 69 Nam Long G Group ability to fin At the peak o ments by pu ing even m re the found e properties vance custom anks. One r ate activity in y developers bility to fund ance of the utting more ation upon mer paymen reason there n Vietnam d s were not h themselves that develop n but for een complete cause a high compensate did affect s nition Treatm y had a wid g. Many f ected payme o recognise to customer nded over to egulations o ule change m ped 43% in F oot up this y recognition revenues on nts to e has uring highly with pers must pa which the ed yet. This h proportion ed when the some develo ment: Real e de latitude firms previo ents from cu revenues fro rs at the tim the custome on Nam Long mentioned ab FY11 and 78 year and nex policy was newly sold nues and pro at some of LG has a tur ay on full s rule of its rule opers estate develo in their reve ously recogn ustomers. F om projects me those pro er. g bove helps e 8% FY12, an xt. In the ye changed, de projects un ofits to plung the produ rnaround tim ance that th e the payme on policy ch 80% of the opers enue nised Firms that ojects explain why nd why reve ears immedi evelopers ha til those pro ge, but the r ucts coming e of about 1 he products ent schedules ange. This cost of the ayments are ving the firm really is (a also means m Long’s bala Nam nues ately ad to ojects revenues ca g to compl 2-18 to com an be etion plete handed ove nged, despite customers by the tim will not be s never chan means that e apartment sitting on th the superfici common that the c.$ ance sheet is e liability sid ial appearan problem for $15m of ad s all nearly g er to e the have me of de of Nam Lo ce that it is m r all real e dvance custo guaranteed fu ong’s more state omer uture Page 19 9 of 25
23 April 2013 Finally most r longer This h marke financi We wo in a se y, we note th real estate c r able to fund elps explain t; we expect ing within the ould encoura econdary issu hat Decree 7 companies i d themselves why Nam Lo t that the firm e next year age any clien ue to contact 71 has incre in Vietnam s with advanc ong recently m will need in the form o nts that may t us. Nam Long G eased the fin because tho ced custome listed its sha to raise ano of CBs and/o be intereste Group nancing need ose firms ar er payments. ares on the s other $10-20 or straight eq ed in particip ds of re no stock 0m of quity. ating Page 20 0 of 25
PROFI FYE D IT AND LOSS (VND b ec Sales COGS Gross Operat EBIT Net fin Net Inc Net ex PBT Income Minorit Net pr EBITD EPS profit ting exp. ancial incomes (loss) come (loss) fr. jv traodinaries e tax ty interest ofit A CASH FYE D FLOW (VND b) ec ting cash flow profit preciation ange in working capita ers ment cash flow capex ange in investment ange in other assets flow after Investment cing cash flow ange in share capital change in debt ers paid ash flow Opera Net Dep Cha Othe Invest Net Cha Cha Cash f Financ Cha Net Othe Div Net ca Sourc ce: Company, M 23 Apr ril 2013 b) 2009 630.6 -330.2 300.4 -90.6 209.9 6.9 6.8 3.3 226.9 -37.4 -30.8 158.6 215.1 1,842.6 2009 31.7 158.6 5.3 al -714.3 582.1 -197.2 -59.1 -151.1 13.0 -165.5 180.9 120.0 73.3 -0.0 -12.4 15.3 Maybank KE est 2010 839.8 7 -490.4 -4 349.4 2 -112.6 -1 236.8 1 -9.0 10.3 7.8 245.9 1 -64.2 4.9 186.6 1 246.7 1 2,020.8 1,1 2010 -13.4 -1 186.6 1 9.9 -182.7 -4 -27.2 1 -4.5 -2.1 -20.6 18.3 -17.9 -2 102.8 1 167.9 -58.8 1 - -6.3 84.9 timates 2011 2012 734.0 461.7 459.4 -260.0 274.6 201.7 159.9 -126.1 114.7 75.7 -11.2 -68.8 1.8 0.4 87.9 52.4 193.3 59.6 -56.1 -29.0 -30.0 -5.9 107.2 24.6 124.4 88.0 160.7 258.0 2011 2012E 198.5 -202.7 107.2 24.6 9.7 12.3 476.7 -280.7 161.3 41.0 -29.2 2.2 -3.6 -10.5 -51.6 5.8 26.1 6.9 227.7 -200.6 163.1 172.4 - 6.5 175.1 172.7 - 0.0 -12.0 -6.8 -64.6 -28.1 BA ALANCE SHEET (VN YE Dec 2013F FY 779.2 To -449.3 Cu 330.0 Ca -139.9 ST 190.1 Inv -28.4 Tra otal assets urrent assets ash T investment ventories ade receivable thers ther assets T Investment et fix assets thers otal liabilities urrent liabilities ade payable dvance from customer T borrowings thers ong-term liabilities ong-term debts thers hareholders' equity aid in capital eserve nority interests - Ot - Ot 161.7 LT -37.4 Ne -17.2 Ot 107.1 To 202.1 Cu 1,121.5 Tra Ad ST Ot Lo Lo Ot Sh Pa Re Mi KE EY RATIOS YE Dec 2013F FY 79.9 Gr 107.1 Sa 12.0 Op 11.5 EB (50.6) Ne -202.0 EP -14.6 Pr -180.2 Gr -7.2 Op -122.1 EB 121.4 Ne 12.4 RO 68.3 RO 2.4 St 38.2 Gr -0.7 Ne rowth (% YoY) ales perating profit BITDA et profit PS rofitability (%) ross margin perating margin BITDA margin et margin OA OE ability ross debt/equity (%) et debt/equity (%) t. coverage (X) t. & ST debt coverage ash flow int. coverage ash flow int. & ST deb urrent ratio (X) uick ratio (X) et cash/(debt) (VND b er share data (VND ) PS FPS VPS PS BITDA/share PS Int Int Ca Ca Cu Qu Ne Pe EP CF BV SP EB DP ND b) 200 09 2010 2,330 1,781 121 0.0 2,470.3 2 .8 1,925.6 2 .3 206.2 5.0 5 2.7 1,411.0 2 3.6 289.4 9.2 19.0 8.2 544.7 0.7 453.9 9.5 49.1 8.0 41.7 5.7 1,100.9 1 0.7 1,018.2 1 8.1 91.9 5.1 501.6 9.5 195.8 8.0 228.9 5.0 82.7 2.4 56.4 2.6 26.3 4.3 1,369.4 1 9.7 945.2 1 3.8 244.6 0.8 179.6 1,342 303 9 548 500 9 38 1,245 1,160 68 rs 585 219 288 85 72 12 1,084 649 233 200 200 09 2010 n/n a 33.2 n/n a 12.8 n/n a 14.7 n/n a 17.7 n/n a 9.7 47 33 34 25 13 35 7.6 41.6 3.3 28.2 4.1 29.4 5.2 22.2 3.6 7.8 5.9 18.0 33 18 33 3.0 21.2 8.7 3.9 3.5 13.9 .8 1.1 5.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 .5 1.9 0.4 0.5 5.6 -46.0 e (X) 1 (X) 5 bt (X) 0 1 0 b) -165 1,84 17 10,26 7,32 2,49 23 Nam Long G Group 2,894.7 3,069.8 2,403.7 2,604.5 141.6 113.5 2,059.0 2,197.8 179.2 264.9 23.9 26.5 491.0 465.2 352.7 328.7 53.3 60.1 85.0 76.4 1,382.2 1,514.5 ,183.8 1,357.6 72.9 100.8 369.8 306.8 295.4 518.1 445.7 431.9 198.4 156.9 172.7 122.7 25.7 34.2 1,512.5 1,555.2 ,029.4 1,078.4 200.2 194.3 282.9 282.5 38.1 50.4 26.6 41.3 5.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 -9.0 -2.7 -0.7 -0.4 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.3 -326.5 -525.6 43 2,021 78 919 62 12,882 1 25 9,093 99 2,671 37 356 2011 2012 1.8 2011 2012E -12.6 -37.1 -51.6 -34.0 -49.6 -29.2 -42.6 -77.0 -42.6 -77.8 37.4 43.7 15.6 16.4 16.9 19.1 14.6 5.3 4.0 0.8 8.9 2.0 1,161 258 -699 -294 13,314 13,325 7,947 4,834 1,347 922 533 400 Page 21 2013F 68.8 151.2 129.6 334.7 334.7 42.3 24.4 25.9 13.7 3.4 8.1 51.4 43.1 4.3 0.4 1.8 0.2 2.1 0.3 -594.5 1,121 -7 14,446 8,158 2,116 400 of 25
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WICAKSONO 62) 21 2557 1128 adi.w Generalist nthony YUNUS 62) 21 2557 1139 antho Cement Infrastructure Property rwani PRANADJAYA 62) 21 2557 1129 arwa Technicals uz LORENZO Head of R 63) 2 849 8836 luz_lore Strategy aura DY-LIACCO 63) 2 849 8840 laura_d Utilities Conglomerates Telcos ovell SARREAL 63) 2 849 8841 lovell_s Consumer Media Cement enneth NERECINA 63) 2 849 8839 kennet Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics atherine TAN 63) 2 849 8843 kat_tan Banks Construction amon ADVIENTO 63) 2 849 8845 ramon_ Mining ARCH OFFIC CES ILIAS onomist apore | Malaysia 97 8682 suhaimi_ilia ENZO ppines | Indonesia 49 8836 luz_lorenzo@ LAHAPHAN and 8 1420 tim.l@mayba Suhaimi Chief Eco ƒ Singa (603) 229 Luz LOR ƒ Philip (63) 2 84 Tim LEEL ƒ Thaila (662) 658 SINGAPORE Research maybank-ke.com.sg ufacturing ew@maybank-ke.com. ction oh@maybank-ke.com.s .sg sg A eekeong@maybank-ke e.com.sg k@maybank-ke.com.s sg chin@maybank-ke.com hipping & Aviation) lin@maybank-ke.com. @maybank-ke.com.sg INDONESIA m.sg .sg ad of Research rina.setiawan@mayban nk-ke.co.id y.ariesandi@maybank-mi. -ke.co.id marina@maybank-ke e.co.id du.anugrah@maybank-wicaksono@ -ke.co.id maybank-k ke.co.id ony.yunus@maybank-ni. ke.co.id pranadjaya@mayba PHILIPPINES Research enzo@maybank-atrke. ank-ke.co.id dyliacco@maybank-atr com ke.com sarreal@maybank-atrk ke.com th_nerecina@maybank k-atrke.com n@maybank-atrke.com m _adviento@maybank-a atrke.com ECONOM MICS s@maybank-ib.com @maybank-atrke.com ank-ke.co.th m Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL (66) 2658 6300 ext Sukit.u@maybank- Maria LAPIZ Head Dir (66) 2257 0250 Maria.L@maybank- ƒ Consumer/ Big Andrew STOTZ Str (66) 2658 6300 ext Andrew@maybank Mayuree CHOWVIK (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Strategy Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Media ƒ Commerce Sutthichai KUMWO (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Energy ƒ Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIV (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Property Woraphon WIROON (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Banking & Fina Jaroonpan WATTA (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Transportation ƒ Small cap. Chatchai JINDARA (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Electronics Pongrat RATANATA (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Services/ Smal Michael KOKALARI, (84) 838 38 66 47 m ƒ Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Food and Beve ƒ Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Banking Trinh Thi Ngoc Die (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Technology ƒ Utilities ƒ Construction Dang Thi Kim Tho (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Consumer Nguyen Trung Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Steel ƒ Sugar ƒ Resources THAILAND L Head of Research 5090 ke.co.th of Institutional Researc | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1 -ke.co.th Caps rategist 5091 -ke.co.th RAN 1440 mayuree.c@ma B 1430 suttatip.p@mayb RACHAI 1400 sutthichai.k@ma VAT 1520 termporn.t@may NSRI 1560 woraphon.w@m ance ANAWONG 1404 jaroonpan.w@m AT 1401 chatchai.j@may AVANANANDA 1398 pongrat.R@may l Caps VIETNAM , CFA Head of Resear michael.kokalari@may Tuyen 8081 tuyen.nguyen@ erage 8084 van.ngo@mayb ep 8242 diep.trinh@may oa 8083 thoa.dang@ma a 8088 hoa.nguyen@m Nam Long G Group m.vn vn Page 22 D ch 399 ybank-ke.co.th bank-ke.co.th aybank-ke.co.th ybank-ke.co.th maybank-ke.co.th maybank-ke.co.th ybank-ke.co.th ybank-ke.co.th rch bank-kimeng.com.vn @maybank-kimeng.com bank-kimeng.com.vn ybank-kimeng.com.vn aybank-kimeng.com.vn maybank-kimeng.com.v 2 of 25
APPE NDIX I: TERM DISCLA This res offer to each se Technic informa invested take int should recomm The info Investm this rep (collect report. A This re “intend” achieve subject Reader forward events. MKE an time to from su related act upo officers This rep whole o actions This rep other ju circums investo location Malays Opinion ratings Securiti Singap This rep KERPL Mayban expert i content Thailan The dis Office o and the perspec Corpora Public C Except MBKET US This re Securiti (registe the US US. Th should legislati UK This do Service Service respons constitu AIMERS search report is p sell or a solicitat ecurity’s price o cal ratings may d ation extracted fr d. Past performa to account the sp therefore seek f mended in this re ormation contain ment Bank Berha port by MKE and ively, “Represen Any information, port may contain ”, “plan”, “expect ed and other sim to certain risks rs are cautioned d looking stateme nd its officers, dir time participate uch issuers, and/ thereto. In addi on or use the info and/or employe port is prepared or in part in any fo of third parties in port is not directe urisdiction where stances as may b rs. Without preju n of the person o sia ns or recommen as technical val ies Berhad in the pore port has been pr L”) in Singapore nk KERPL in Sin nvestor or institu ts of this report, w nd sclosure of the s of the Securities e market for Alte ctive of a third p ate Governance Company Limited as specifically p T accepts no liab search report p ies Exchange Ac ered under Sectio shall be borne b is report is not d satisfy yourself ion and regulatio ocument is being es Authority and i es and Markets A sibility for its co uting legal, accou 23 Apr ril 2013 MS FOR PROV VISION OF R prepared for gen tion of an offer to or value may ris differ from funda rom the relevant ance is not nece pecific investmen financial, legal a eport. ned herein has b ad, its subsidiary d it should not b ntatives”) shall no opinions or reco n forward looking t”, “forecast”, “pr milar expressions s and uncertainti not to place und ents to reflect ne REPORT, DISC neral circulation a o buy the securit e or fall. Opinio mental ratings a jurisdiction’s sto essarily a guide t nt objectives, the nd other advice CLAIMERS A and for informatio ies referred to he ons or recomme s technical valua ock exchange in to future perform e financial situat regarding the ap been obtained fro and affiliates (co be relied upon as ot be liable for a ommendations co g statements wh redict” and “proje s. Such forward l ies that could ca ue relevance on ew information, e rectors and empl or invest in fina or have a positio tion, it may make ormation presente es of MKE may b for the use of M orm or manner w n this respect. ed to or intended e such distributio be permitted by udice to the fore r entity receiving ND DISCLOS on purposes only erein. Investors s endations contain ations apply diffe the equity analy mance. This repo ion and the part ppropriateness o om sources belie ollectively, “MKE s such. Accordin any direct, indire ontained herein a hich are often bu ect” and stateme looking statemen ause the actual these forward-lo events or circum loyees, including ancing transactio on or holding, or e markets in the ed herein, or the be a director of t MKE’s clients and without the prior e SURES y and under no c should note that ned herein are erent methodolog ysis. Accordingly ort is not intende icular needs of p of investing in an eved to be reliab E”) and conseque ngly, MKE and i ct or consequen are subject to ch ut not always ide ents that an even nts are based on results to differ ooking statement mstances after th g persons involve ons with the issu other material in securities menti e research or ana he issuers of the d may not be rep express written c d for distribution t on, publication, a applicable law. T egoing, the read g this report. dations containe luations apply d e equity analysis. ircumstances sh values of such s in form of techn gies and are pur y, investors’ retu ed to provide per persons who ma ny securities or t ble but such sour ently no represe ts officers, direc ntial losses or da ange at any time entified by the us nt or result “may n assumptions m r materially from ts. MKE express he date of this p ed in the prepara er(s) of the secu terest, or effect t oned in the mate alysis on which th e securities ment produced, altered consent of MKE a to or use by any availability or use The securities de er is to note tha ed herein are in ifferent methodo . roduced as of th has no obligatio gapore in respec utional investor (a with such liability Nam Long G ould it be consid securities, if any, nical ratings and rely based on pri rns may be less rsonal investmen ay receive or rea the investment s rces have not be ntation is made ctors, associates amages that may e, without prior no se of words suc y”, “will”, “can”, “ made and inform m those expresse ly disclaims any ublication or to r ation or issuance urities mentioned transactions, in s erial presented in hey are based, b ioned in this repo d in any way, tra and MKE and its person or entity e would be contr escribed herein m at additional disc the form of tech ologies and are he date hereof an on to update suc ct of any matters as defined under y being limited to urvey result of th and Exchange C ernative Investm party. It is not an Report of Thai d (“MBKET”) doe permitted, no par ility whatsoever f Group ered or intended may fluctuate an d fundamental r ice and volume-r s than the origina nt advice and do d this report. Inv strategies discus een independent as to the accura s, connected par y arise from the otice. ch as “anticipate” should”, “could” mation currently a ed in any forwa obligation to upd reflect the occur of this report, m d in this report, p such securities o n this report. MK before the materi ort. ansmitted to, cop Representatives who is a citizen o rary to law or reg may not be eligib claimers, warning hnical ratings an purely based on nd the informatio ch information fo arising from, or r Section 4A of th the extent (if any he Thai Institute Commission. The ment disclosed to n evaluation of o Listed Compani es not confirm no rt of this present for the actions of repared by MKE ct of 1934, as a on 15 of the Sec by Maybank KES directed at you if before reading ons. d as an nd that atings. related al sum oes not vestors ssed or ly verified by Ma acy or completen rties and/or emp use or reliance aybank ness of loyees of this ”, “believe”, “esti or “might” occur available to us a rd looking statem date or revise an rrence of unantic ay, to the extent perform services or options thereon KE may, to the e al is published. imate”, r or be nd are ments. y such cipated permitted by law s for or solicit bu n, or other invest xtent permitted b One or more dire pied or distribute s accepts no liab or resident of or gulation. This re ble for sale in all gs or qualificatio nd fundamental r n price and volu on herein may b or any recipient. in connection wi he Singapore Se y) as permitted b of Directors Ass e survey of the IO o the public and operation and is ies. As a result, or certify the accu tation may be re f third parties in t E is distributed amended) only b curities Exchange SUSA. All result f MKE is prohibit it that Maybank g distributed by is for Information Act 2000 within omments or accu unting or tax adv w, from usiness tments by law, ectors, ed to any other p bility whatsoever located in any lo eport is for distrib jurisdictions or t ons may apply b ratings. Technica me-related inform party in for the ocality, state, cou bution only unde to certain catego based on geogra al ratings may d mation extracted nge. Maybank K n in Singapore, r the recipient of t ures Act), Mayba e subject to cha . For distribution th, this report. If curities and Futu by law. regarding corpo the information o essed by a gen nside information y be changed af rvey result. tributed in any m sociation (“IOD”) OD is based on t able to be acc not based on in the survey may uracy of such sur eproduced or dist this respect. in the United St by Maybank Kim e Act of 1934, as ting transactions ted or restricted k KESUSA is pe Maybank Kim E nal Purposes only the UK. Any inc uracy, and that ice, and that for a tates (“US”) to M Eng Securities s amended). All s by a US person by any legislatio ermitted to prov Eng Securities ( y. This documen clusion of a third access to such accurate guidanc untry or er such ories of aphical differ from fundam d from Bursa Ma Kim Eng Researc recipients of this this report is not ank KERPL shall orate governance of a company list eral public inves n.The survey res fter that date. M mental alaysia ch Pte. Ltd. (“Ma s report are to c an accredited inv be legally liable e is made pursua ted on the Stock stor. The result, sult is as of the aybank Kim Eng manner without t Major US Institu USA Inc (“Mayb responsibility for n or entity should on or regulation vide research m London) Ltd (“M nt is not intended party link is for links is at the ce recipients sho aybank contact vestor, for the ant to the policy k Exchange of Th therefore, is fro date appearing g Securities (Tha he prior written utional Investors bank KESUSA”) r the distribution d be effected thr in any jurisdictio aterial concernin Maybank KESL”) for distribution t r the recipients c individuals own ould consult with of the hailand om the in the ailand) permission of M BKET. Rule 15a-6 und er registered in t y Maybank KESU ed broker-dealer t available to yo to you under re (as defined in , a broker-deale of this report by rough a registere on from making it ng investments ) which is autho to anyone define convenience only risk. Nothing in their own indepe orized and regul d as a Retail Clie y, and that the f n this report sho endent tax advise der the he US USA in r in the u. You elevant ated, by the Fin ent under the Fin firm does not tak ould be conside ers. nancial nancial ke any red as Page 23 3 of 25
DISCL Legal E Malays Malaysi and dis Eng Se MBKET Exchan and Ex StateSe Eng Se Stock E Mercha Mayban Disclo Malays as mark services Singap Thailan researc parties Hong K 16.5(a) As of 23 MKE m issues o services in this r OTHE Analys The vie the rese Remind Structu of unde factors issuer o profess No part LOSURES Entities Disclos sia: This report i ia Berhad and a stributed in Singa ecurities (“PTKES T (Reg. No.0107 nge Commission xchange Comm ecuritiesCommis ecurities India Pr Exchange (Reg. ant Banker (Reg. nk KESL (Reg No osure of Inter sia: MKE and its ket maker or ma s, advisory and o pore: As of 23 Ap nd: MBKET may ch report. Therefo and/or employee Kong: KESHK m of the Hong Kon 3 April 2013, KES may have, within t of, any or all of th s in relation to th report. ERS t Certification o ews expressed in earch analyst’s c der red securities are erstanding and as (including, but no or reference issu sional advisers as t of this materia Defi Mayb BU HO SE App The appli as w Som Adex BV = CAGR Capex CY = DCF = DPS = EBIT EBITD EPS = EV = nition of Rati bank Kim Eng Re UY Total re OLD Total re ELL Total re licability of Rati respective analy icable to the stoc we do not actively me common t = Advertising Expen Book Value R = Compounded An x = Capital Expendit Calendar Year Discounted Cashfl Dividend Per Shar = Earnings Before In DA = EBIT, Deprecia Earnings Per Shar Enterprise Value 23 Apr ril 2013 ures s issued and dis holder of Capita apore by Mayban S”) (Reg. No. K 7545000314) is .Philippines:MA mission. Vietnam sion of Vietnam. rivate Limited (“K No. INF/INB 011 No. INM 00001 o 2377538) is au rest s Representatives y have assumed other services fo pril 2013, Mayba y have a busines ore, Investors sh es may from time may have financia ng Code of Cond SHK and the aut the last three ye he entities menti he investment co stributed in Mala al Markets and S nk KERPL (Co. KEP-251/PM/1992 a member of th ATRKES (Reg. N m: Maybank Ki .Hong Kong: KE KESI”) is a partic 1452431) and is 1708) US: Mayb uthorized and reg s may from time d an underwriting r or relating to th nk KERPL and th ss relationship w hould exercise th e to time have int al interests in rela duct for Persons thoring analyst d ears, served as m oned in this repo oncerned or a rel of Independence n this research re compensation wa e eport accurately as, is or will be, d e complex instru ssuming the risk ot limited to, spo uer. Any investor s to the risks invo al may be copied uments, typically ks involved. The ot and forward int r interested in pu olved in making s d, photocopied ings esearch uses the eturn is expected eturn is expected eturn is expected ings yst maintains a cks which form p y follow developm erms abbrev nditure nnual Growth Rate ture low re nterest And Tax ation And Amortisati re e following rating d to be above 15 d to be between - d to be below -15 coverage unive art of the covera ments in these co iated in this r on aysia by Mayban Services License Reg No 197201 2) is a member he Stock Exchan No.01-2004-0001 im Eng Securit ESHK (Central E cipant of the Nati regulated by Se bank KESUSA is gulated by the Fi nk Investment B e issued by the S 256N) which is of the Indonesi nge of Thailand 9) is a member ties Company Entity No AAD28 ional Stock Exch curities and Exc s a member of/ a nancial Services to time have pos g commitment or ose companies. he covering anal with or may poss eir own judgmen terests and/or un ation to an issue Licensed by or R o not have any in manager or co-m ort or may be pro lated investment sitions or be mat deal with such s yst do not have a ibly be an issue nt before making nderwriting comm er or a new listing Registered with th nterest in any co manager of a pub oviding, or have p t and may receiv reflect the analys directly or indirec st’s personal view tly, related to the involve a high d market value of terest and excha urchasing a struc such a purchase or duplicated in degree of risk and any structured s ange rates), time ctured product s e. n any form by a system: % in the next 12 15% to +15% in 5% in the next 12 months n the next 12 mon 2 months erse of stocks, t age universe. Re ompanies. report (where the list of which ports on compan e they appear Cashflow ue al Year cial Year End h-On-Month sset Value angible Asset nnum After Tax Before Tax FCF = Free C FV = Fair Val FY = Financia FYE = Financ MoM = Month NAV = Net As NTA = Net Ta P = Price P.A. = Per An PAT = Profit A PBT = Profit B Bank Berhad (15 Securities Comm regulated by the a Stock Exchan and is regulate r of the Philippin (“KEVS”) (Licen 84) is regulated b hange of India L hange Board of and is authorized s Authority. 938-H) which is mission in Malays e Monetary Autho nge and is regula ed by the Minist es Stock Exchan nse Number: 7 by the Securities imited (Reg No: India. KESI is al d and regulated terially interested securities and m Nam Long G a Participating sia. Singapore: ority of Singapor ated by the BAP try of Finance a nge and is regul 71/UBCK-GP) is s and Futures Co INF/INB 231452 lso registered wi by the FINRA – d in the securities ay also perform any interest in an r of derivative w any investment mitments in the se g applicant referr he Securities and ompanies recomm blic offering of se provided within th ve compensation Group Organization of This material is re. Indonesia: P PEPAM LK. Tha and the Securitie lated by the Sec s licensed unde ommission. India 2435) and the Bo th SEBI as Cate Broker ID 2786 s referred to here or seek to perfo Bursa issued PT Kim ailand: es and curities er the a: Kim ombay egory 1 1. UK: ein and may furth rm investment b commended in t securities /compa ET, its associate ned in this report d by the requirem mission. esearch report. urrently may ma months, significan provided from th ny companies re warrants on the s decisions. MBKE ecurities mention red to as defined d Futures Comm mended in this re ecurities for, or cu he previous 12 m for the services ws about any an e specific recomm nd all of the subje mendations or vie d are intended fo security may be a to maturity, mar hould conduct its her act anking his research repo anies mentioned s, directors, conn t. ments under Para ort. in the nected agraph ke a primary ma nt advice or inves he companies co ect securities or ews expressed in or sale only to so affected by chan ket conditions an s own analysis o any means or re nths arket in stment overed issuers; and no n the report. ophisticated inve ges in economic nd volatility and t of the product an edistributed with may be adjuste nies which are no r): part of estors who are ca c, financial and p the credit quality nd consult with it hout the prior co ed according to ot part of the cov PE PE PE Qo RO RO RO WA YoY YT apable political of any ts own onsent of MKE. needs. Investm verage do not car = Price Earnings G = PE Ratio To Gro R = PE Ratio Q = Quarter-On-Qua OA = Return On Asse OE = Return On Equi OSF = Return On Sha ACC = Weighted Ave Y = Year-On-Year D = Year-To-Date ment ratings are rry investment ra owth arter et ity areholders’ Funds erage Cost Of Capita only atings Page 24 al 4 of 25
Nam Long G Group 23 April 2013 Page 25 5 of 25

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Nam long investment_corporation_report_23042013_mbke

  • 1. New Bu w Listing uy Share Targe e price: 16 et price: 21 Micha Micha (84) 8 6,800 1,000 el Kokalari, CFA el.kokalari@ma 38386647 Stock Descrip Information ption: Ticker: Shares Market 3-mth A VNIndex Free flo Major S ASPL (I Nguyen Nam Vie Tran Th A aybank-kimeng Issued (m): Cap (VND b): Avg Daily Turnover x: at (%): Shareholders: (%) reka) n Xuan Quang et (Goldman Sachs hanh Phong Key In ROE – a Net cas NTA/sh Interest dicators annualised (%) sh ($ m): r (UScts): cover (x): SEE A s) APPENDIX (VND): .com.vn I FOR IMPO NLG 95.5 1,614 n/a 480 44 16.3 14.9 9.1 8.9 8.1 n/a 16,113 4.3 ORTANT DI Na Viet Vietna Ikea, t class. costs compe maxim landba “Ehom has re 60/sqm and lo practic Blue-c Ireka ( regard 59%. has th with ov Afford Vietna estate $700/s NLG h long-te availab Stock NLG s becaus real es deliver recogn NLG a Nam L FYE De Revenu EBITDA Net Pro Recurri EPS Gr DPS (V PER (x) EV/EBI Div Yiel P/BV (x Net gea ROE (% ROA (% Source: am Lo tnam’s “ am’s best a the Swedish ong G Ikea” o ffordable re maker of a anies use a nstruction c both design mer satisfact ll generate re apartments despread re s that cost $ y came out o Both compa (NLG’s co etitors), and mise consum ank which wi me” brand a esulted in wi m apartment ook like they cal designs. chip investo a Malaysian ded local PE Those well-he Group of Afford eal estate d affordable, st systematic p costs are m n their prod tion. Also, evenue for th and homes ecognition of 25,000-60,0 of an Ikea c ors: Goldma n real estate E firm) own 3 -known firms agement an ’ experience ng: stable s ng from the a 0-30% in 20 within reach rinking unit is bright, dr gages, still in 45% discou er its recent revenue in profit is set omers, and igh P/B ratio d at low price Summary Ea best man ver 20 years dable housin am is sufferin prices fell 2 sqm) nearly w has been sh erm outlook bility of mortg price at c.4 sold off afte se of falling state. But p red to custo nised. The h acquired land ong Group – ec (VND b) ue A ofit to Sharehold ng Basic EPS ( rowth (%) VND) ) TDA (x) ld (%) x) aring (%) %) %) Company, May ISCLOSUR ders VND) an, Ireka an developer) 32% of NLG s invested in nd corporate focusing on short-term, f after-effects o 12, bringing of middle-cl sizes rather riven by dem n their infanc nt to NAV d t listing on FY12, a hig to jump as revenues o compared es years ago arnings Table 2009 201 ybank KE estim ES AND AN 631 84 215 24 159 18 1,843 2,02 237 35 9.2 8 7.5 6 1.6 1 1.4 2 18.7 3 35.9 18 13.6 7 ates NALYST CE 9 ERTIFICATIO ONS V Vietna p dable Ho eveloper. N tylish furnitur production p more than ducts to min Nam Long he next 10 ye s. High custo f NLG’s Eho 000, take 1-1 catalogue, w d Mekong. and Mekong G, and found Nam Long governance affordable h fantastic lon of a property affordable h lass office w than cutting mographics cy in Vietnam despite imp the HCMC gh P/B and p previously s from those to peers is , increasing e 10 2011 40 734 47 124 87 107 21 1,161 .7 -42.6 56 533 .4 14.6 .5 15.2 .3 1.3 .1 3.2 .9 26.6 .0 8.9 .8 4.0 am 23 Apri ousing il 2013 Nam Long is re for the m process to co 20% below nimise costs g has a 5 ears. omer satisfa ome brand o ½ years to with their ele s like middle ontrol w its and 67ha action f 40- build gant, Goldman Sa g Capital (a ders own ano partly becau e in the indu housing. ng-term outl y bubble, but housing (i.e.. workers. Note g its prices. and the gro m. roving reve stock excha pessimism a sold products prior sales partially bec its relative P achs, well-other use it ustry, look. t real sub-e that The owing enue. ange about s are s are cause /B. 2012 20 462 88 25 258 1 -77.8 3 400 65.5 24.3 1.3 2.4 41.3 2.0 0.8 013F 779 202 107 1,121 334.7 400 15.1 10.9 1.2 2.4 43.1 8.1 3.4
  • 2. Project Waterpoint Aquamarin North Saigo East Gate Nam Long The Bridge West Saigo Captial Tow Casa Oceana / H The Golfvie Camellia G The Green t Township (inc ne Residences on Residences Residential Are eview on wer Ho Tram ew Garden hill Notes: 1) landbank Valuation the Comp 23 April 2013 Land Total We have only k is 567ha, ove n section below pany Overview Acquisition An Thanh Res. ea I, II, III y listed the co er 85% of whic w. 3) The MB w section belo Planni Zon Key P City/Provin ) Long An HCMC Binh Duong HCMC Can Tho HCMC HCMC HCMC HCMC Vung Tau HCMC HCMC HCMC mpensated la ch is fully com BKE valuation n w for maps wi Skille Nam L • • • • • ing and ning Projects a and Invest nce District Ben Luc Binh Cha g Vinh Phu Dist 9 Cai Ran Dist 7 Binh Tan Dist 7 Dist 9 Xuyen M Dist 9 Binh Cha Dist 9 and area for ea mpensated. 2) numbers abov ith the location ed at the E Product D Design Long excels a Land acq suburban r Planning ample am apartment constructio Product elegant de strategy”). Construct Long’s ow costs and Marketing than cut pr to maintain More detai tment Prop leared Area C c Dist anh Dist u g Dist n Dist Moc anh Dist ach of Nam Lo Details about ve are for NLG ns of the abov Entire Affo at each phas uisition: this real estate d and zoning menities su buildings m on costs dow design: Sta esigns keep tion: An in-h wn standard quicker turn g and sales rices in the a n affordability ils appear in (ha) 390 37 13 17 66 2 6 1< 6 17 1 6 1 perties ong’s projects t Maybank Kim G’s ownership ve. All are loc ordable Ho Constructio on se of the affo s is where m evelopment g: NLG’s wel pport sales make zoning wn. andardisation customer sa house team dised units around time s: the compa aftermath of V y. the ‘Compa NLG Own. 100% 100% 100% 40% 100% 100% 100% 100% 45% 100% 100% 45% 100% Nam Long G above. The c m-Eng valuatio interest in the ated in the so Group . ($k) company’s tot on appear in th e project. 4) S uth of Vietnam ousing Va alue Chain Sales and Marketing ordable hous most of the va in Vietnam. ll-designed c s. Its 9-sto approval qu ing value cha alue is create communities orey (or lo uicker, and n keeps co atisfaction hi osts down w gh (i.e. the experienced ensures low es. any shrank Vietnam’s re at building wer constru unit sizes ra eal estate bu ny overview MBKE Val 97,796 22,727 21,704 11,541 10,988 10,255 9,438 6,537 5,179 5,151 4,241 4,090 2,731 212,380 Source: Nam ’ below Page 2 of 25 674 85879 0 0 m Long tal he See m. n ain: ed in with ower) keep while “Ikea Nam ction ather bble,
  • 3. 23 April 2013 Nam L Nam L afforda 20% b constr buildin The co margin project NLG’s weak those quality This a housin scale surrou depres buildin We ex the fut are on Long’s Strat Long’s exten able housing below those uction busin ng Nam Long ompany’s su n (of c.20% ts, while pr strategy is markets by savings on y materials, b approach ma ng developm up will win unding the re ssion in the ng Vietnam’s xpect Nam L ture, given t n. Low G Some luxury housin as inve would Gross Margi of NLG’s d real estate ng developm estment as o be. We und In any pro differentiat Nam Long The luxury a glut of s affordable Estate Out According for sale i segment – market is f demand in flipped the that our es opment in V opment refe opment activ . ypical, repor as high as 4 since the tim 1) 2) 3) Note develo develo develo prices. The ty been a prices tegy: Compa nsive experie g. The com e of its com ness; its in-g’s arable Marg ence has ma pany’s cons mpetitors du -house team dardised, cos ency allows i developers gher-quality e sales of its ney on con rs in the for ties, etc.. because lon ume game. are over tim estate bubbl f the bubble er the next 1 much large y that both th own stand uperior efficie %) as other roducing hig to foster the saving mo to custome better amenit akes sense b ment is a vol market sha ecent real e aftermath of suburbs ove Long to be a he trajectory ns in Afford etractors po developme ent (c.30% v owning the st derstand that oduct market ted products g has chosen y real estate supply for y housing ma tlook” below) to CBRE, on n HCMC th but we gu for lower-pric n the luxury e wrong way stimate of Vietnam of c r to the gr ity and not to Nam Long G gins, but Hig ade it an effic truction cost ue to a vert m has year st-efficient de t to earn a c s on its aff products. s products in struction co rm of better Group gher Quality cient produc ts are more tically integr rs of experi esigns. comparable g fordable hou In other wo both strong osts and pas r designs, h g-term succe Those who me – especia le subsides ) and the m 0 years sets er company he company dable Housin oint out that nt are much vs 20%), so N tock of an up t argument b t, there are t s and low ma n the latter market in V years to com arket is act ). nly about 30% his year are ess that 70% ced units. It and afforda around ! gross marg c.20% vs ab ross profit o profits attrib rted gross m 40-50% in rec me the land w y cer of than rated ence gross using ords, g and ssing igher ess in afford are equippe ally as the (as well as undane real in. at some po y and the co ng the gross p h higher tha Nam Long is pscale develo ut would poi two strategie argin, mass-v dable ed to hype s the ity of int in untry s for dable active C, etc profit margin an for afford s not as attra oper like VIC nt out that: es – high-ma volume prod ietnam is like me, while the ually quite g argin ucts. ely to suffer e outlook fo good (see “ % of the new e in the aff % of the rea seems to us able markets from r the Real w apartment fordable hou al demand in s that supply s are compl gins for affo out 30% or margin for butable to an margins of d cent years b was acquired units using n the y and etely ordable hou more for lu the real e n increase in developers i because of th d. using uxury state land in Vietnam he run-up in have land Page 3 of 25
  • 4. 23 April 2013 Actua Projec al & Projected ct West S North S The Br d Sales to Cu Saigon Ehome Saigon ridgeview An Tha North S anh Residence Saigon An Tha North S Nam L Nam L anh Residence Saigon Long Residentia Long Residentia Apa Eho Eho Eho Ho es An Nor Lan es An Nor al Area NL al Area NL Nam L In 201 Binh T year it launch Sales the slo sizes sales. day th which We be out, bu pick u expect which quarte (in $ ‘0 Long’s Busi 2, Nam Long Tan district a t will launch h Ehome 8 an of all real e ow market, b and excelle For examp he project wa was launche elieve sentim ut interest ra up a bit mor t both of tho should help erly sales res 000). stomers for 2 2013, $k artments ome 3 ome 4: North Sa ome 5: Bridgevi aigon ew uses (includin Thanh Residen rth Saigon (Binh ness Outloo g launched t and Binh Du the sales of nd 9. state develo but the Nam ent brand na ple: the com as launched ed in August ment in the af ates need to re for a rob ose condition support Nam sults/projectio g townhouse & nces h Duong) nd plots Thanh Residen rth Saigon (Binh Residential Are Residential Are Total revenu nces h Duong) ea I ea I ue The sa followi disclos to be t ales results/ ng unit sale se unit sales too commerc Actual Units so Apartme Houses Land plo & Projected old ents (including town ots (sqm) Reven The co rule ch and FY develo nue and Pro ompany’s FY hange that d Y12. The ru opers to hold ok – Short te the sales of i uong provinc f Ehome 5, 6 Nam Long G erm its Ehome 3 ce, a suburb 6, and 7 and opers in Viet m Long’s high ame/reputati pany’s Ehom to the publi last year, is ffordable hou fall a bit fur bust revival ns to be fulf m Long’s sale ons for 2013 Q 2, Villa) Group and 4 projec of HCMC. d next year i tnam have b h-quality pro on have he me 4 project c, while its E 90% sold. using segme rther and se in overall m illed by the es next year 3 appear in Q1 Q2 221 2,73 2, 6, /projections s estimates s by individu cially sensitiv Unit Sales to nhouse & Villa) ofits Reboun Y13 and FY1 depressed N le change, w d off recogn 0 0 648 72 252 2,14 729 93 271 33 381 57 0 9,52 502 16,96 in the table by product al project as ve). o Customers Q1 55 62 4,325 nd in FY13 14 profits will am Long’s r which came nising reven 2013 cts in This it will been hindere oducts, smal elped suppo t sold out on Ehome 3 pro ed by l unit rt its n the oject, ent has botto ntiment need market sales. end of this y . The compa the tables b 2 Q3 32 3,896 0 2,062 0 937 omed ds to . We year, any’s below 6 3,896 2 2,062 7 2,810 29 1,057 44 4,003 7 489 3 2,584 37 416 31 243 71 571 24 0 68 13,186 6 0 3 182 1 381 6 12,403 Source: Nam L derived from ompany does s this inform above are type (the co s it considers in 2013 2013 Q2 68 57 5,481 l be supporte revenues an into effect i ue on hous Q4 0 ong m the s not ation Q3 Q 226 99 2,882 Q4 265 63 850 m Long Source: Nam ed an accou d profits in F n 2010, req ing units so nting FY11 uired old to Page 4 of 25
  • 5. 23 April 2013 Revenue and 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 201 custom below Nam L blocks cause assure purcha payme constr mers until the “Impact of N Long believe s over 2013-1 revenue an ed because ase price, s ents and ac uction. Profit 2010 - 2014 Revenue(V VND Billion) 0 2011 2 2012 2013E NLG’s about custom Again, and F receive Lookin more o Finally load w for a re financi boosts 2014E revenue for the revenue mers, to subs we would re FY14 should ed advance ng past FY14 of a guess ba y, we would with a debt/e eal estate de ial expenses s the profit gr ess Outlook has a pipeli 0 apartment on average sation, Savi able housing trong deman the units it p ordable hous ble below th ears. As dis 13 and FY14 ment of reven Busin NLG h 14,000 year urbani afforda The st to sell for affo the tab four ye for FY treatm e completed New Regulati es it will com 14, comprise nd profits to customers so it is very ccept delive projects are ons on Nam mplete the co ed of about 1 o surge. The have alrea y likely that ery as and 0 50 0 45 0 40 0 35 0 30 0 25 0 20 0 15 0 10 0 5 0 recast table es derived fro stantiate its c eiterate that t d be very a customer p 4, the revenu ased on sale like to note equity ratio o eveloper. Fa s about 40% rowth outlook Nam Long G e handed ove Long”). onstruction o 1,400 apartm ese revenue dy paid ab t they will when NLG Pr Group er to buyers (see of nine apart ments – which es are fairly out 70% of make their G completes rofit(VND Bill 2010 2 2011 2012 in the next s om the deliv claim about i the company accurate, as payments for ue projection es progress t that the com of approxima alling interes this year co k for this yea k – Long Te ine of proje units over t e. Due t lls estimates g a year (see nd makes us produces – a sing market t he company scussed in th 4 should be q nues in Viet section goes veries of eac ncreasing re y’s revenue f s the compa r the produc ns in the tabl this year and mpany has ately 0.4x, w st rates are e ompared to F ar. rm ects which w he next five o demogra s that HCM “Affordable s confident th lthough we d to remain so has estimat he section ab quite accura nam requirin ment h will well f the final s the 2013E 2014 4E m Long detail final Y13. FY13 ready eliver. come s into more d ch project to evenues in FY forecast for F any has alr cts it will de le below bec d next. a moderate well within re expected to l FY12, which will produce years, or ov phics, cultu C will need Housing Out hat the comp do expect the oft for the res ted its reven bove, the rev ate because o ng that real Source: Nam debt ason ower also around 12, ver 2,000 un ural trends 70,000 uni tlook” below) pany will be e overall dem st of this yea nues for the venue projec of the accou estate reve ,000- nits a and ts of ). able mand ar. In next ctions nting nues Page 5 lion) of 25
  • 6. Actual & Project North Saig The Bridge The Golfvi The Green Aquamarin East Gate Waterpoin North Saig Waterpoin Aquamarin Waterpoin Aquamarin Oceana An Thanh North Saig Nam Long Nam Long Nam Long Nam Long Oceana Aquamarin Waterpoin Casa 23 April 2013 Projected Re gon eview iew nhill ne Residences nt gon nt ne nt ne evenues by P Residences gon g Residential A g Residential A g Residential A g Residential A ne nt Apa Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Eho Ho (in Nor Wa Aqu Wa Aqu Oce Lan An Nor Area I NL Area III NL Area II NL Tan Area I NL Oce Aqu Wa Cas Lon only b custom occur f Reven year a reason marke below. be recognise mer – but the for units that nues in the f and next, bu nable revenu t to improve . Project 2012 - artments ome 1, 2: East S ome 4: North Sa ome 5: Bridgevi ome 6: Golfview ome 7: Greenhi ome 8: Aquama ome 9: East Ga ome 10: Waterp 2016 Saigon aigon ew w ll arine ate point uses ncluding townh rth Saigon (Binh aterpoint (Long A uamarine Town aterpoint (Long A uamarine Villa eana Villa ed when th e company h t have alread following yea ut so far this ue picture in e next year, house & Villa) h Duong) An) Townhouse house An) Villa nd plots Thanh Residen rth Saigon (Binh Residential Are Residential Are Residential Are n Thuan Dong Residential Are eana Hotel Lan uamarine Land aterpoint (Long A sa ng Thanh My nces h Duong) ea I ea III ea II ea I d An) Villa Other reven Total revenu ue ue The lo due to the co most o A subs to its proxim pointe minute rapidly middle One ca area te footwe the loc onger-term ou the strong o mpany’s abi of the compa stantial porti large Water mity to the hi d out that t es’ drive) bu y and every e-class worke aveat, howev ends be foc ear and furni cation of NL 2012 4,667 1,667 e 86 0 1,700 4,952 3,333 1,952 3,657 22,014 he products as a quite ac dy been sold ars will be q s year’s sale 2015, and w as discusse utlook for Na outlook for af lity to execu any’s projects on of the co rpoint projec ghway to do this project t our respon major city in ers living in t ver, is that th used on low ture, while t LG’s North S 2013 Nam Long G are deliver ccurate view to customer uite depende es figures se we expect sa ed in “Real E Group red to the w of when tha rs. ent on sales eem to supp ales of the ov Estate Overv 2014 201 1111 15 2016 13,883 19,7 15,611 27,5 14,269 12,9 13,313 2,3 9,225 2,189 1 1 2,082 765 1,714 9,524 11,605 2 37,106 11 am Long is h ffordable hou ute, and beca s. ompany’s futu ct in Long A owntown HC is far from nse to that is the world h he suburbs. he FDI which wer value-add he FDI that Saigon Ehom end-at will s this ort a verall view” 753 19,567 506 1,487 910 349 829 37,531 263 22,464 23,8 14,2 11,034 0 17,450 17,4 450 22,186 233 15,218 775 4,888 13,2 9,7 1,8 869 2,858 044 943 4,599 844 4,841 5,044 5,0 9 2,8 5,462 19,0 20,1 048 19,048 115 40,631 22,052 21,7 18,119 212,6 741 17,299 673 246,784 Source: Nam Lo highly favoura using in the s ause of our f able, in our v south of Viet favorable vie ure revenues An (which is MC). Some HCMC’s C s simple – H as a substan s are attribu located in c e detractors CBD (circa 3 HCMC is gro ntial portion into the Lon es like garm into Binh Du s moving up h has flowed ded industrie has flowed me project, i 34,168 Page 6 of 25 77 148 688 8 91 81 94 ong view, nam, ew of table close have 35-45 owing of its ng An ents, uong, p the
  • 7. 23 April 2013 value earma sophis homes paying HCMC We ha III proj attract not as Can T Can T in com surrou want t agricu city as farm d The o specifi center specul severa the Na sell al particu NAV e Finally below, from. Long-T chain. A h arked for th sticated mec s in the Nor g jobs locally C for the fore ave also visit jects in Can tive but the compelling. Tho city has Tho bridge in mmodity price unding provin to buy apar ltural region) s students or due to increas verall pictur ic area wher r of the city lation in the al (unattractiv am Long pro l the units i ular micro-ma estimate belo y, we’ve rep , to give an i high proport he manufac chanical com rth Saigon E y, while Wate seeable futu ted the comp n Tho city. particular ar been growin 2010 slashe es over the nces more w rtments in C ), 3) the child young adult sed mechan e for the cit re Nam Lon y, seems to lead-up to ve) uncompl oject. We ha n its Can T arket need to ow. plicated the dea of wher Term Project EH EH E Home 3: West S Home 4: North S EHome 5: Bridg E E E Ehome 6: Go Ehome 7: Gre home 8: Aquam Ehome 9: East home 10: Wate ast Gate Reside Can T Camelia G Aquam Tho Residential A Wate Plan 2012 201 Saigon Saigon eview olfview eenhill marine t Gate erpoint ences arden marine Areas erpoint tion of FDI cture of pro mponents. W Ehome proje erpoint reside re. pany’s Nam The develo rea where th Nam Long G in the Binh oducts like We guess res ect will be a ents will nee Group h Duong are electronics sidents who able to find ed to commu Long Reside pment is pr he developm ng rapidly fo ed travel tim last few yea wealthy (our Can Tho – dren of those s – and they isation. ty continues g’s project i o have bee the Can Th leted develo ave no doubt ho developm o fall more. ea is and o buy high-ute ential Area I ristine and h ment is locate or a few reas es to HCMC ars has mad understand the capital e farmers wa y are no long , II & highly ed is sons: 1) the C, 2) the incr de farmers in ing is that m of the sout ant to move to er needed o new rease n the many thern o the n the t the o the state e are ity to ble to n this n our romising bu while close to d by real e ening. There close proxim ny will be ab ink prices in his opinion in s to looks p s located, w en impacted o bridge ope opments in c t the compan ment, but thi We reflect th company’s e its future s own long-te sales and rev 13 2014 2015 plan come erm project venues will c 2016 2017 2 2018 2019 20 020 Source: Nam m Long Page 7 to of 25
  • 8. MBKE Rev Project Aquamarine Residences Camellia Gar North Saigon Ehome Waterpoint Township 22 Waterpoint Township 12 The Golfview The Greenhil Captial Towe Nam Long Residential A Nam Long Residential A Nam Long Residential A The Oceana East Gate Residences The Bridgevie West Saigon Ehome An Thanh Residences Casa 23 April 2013 valuation of N NLG Key Proje nce City/ Provin HCMC rden HCMC n Binh Duong 2ha Long A 3ha Long A w HCMC ll HCMC er HCMC Area 1 Can T Area 2 Can T Area 3 Can T Vung T HCMC ew HCMC HCMC Long A HCMC District C Binh Ch C Binh Ch g Vinh Ph An Ben Luc An Ben Luc C Dist 9 C Dist 9 C Dist 7 ho Cai Ran ho Cai Ran ho Cai Ran Tau Xuyen M C Dist 9 C Dist 7 C Binh Ta An Ben Luc C Dist 9 NAV E To est project consid assets large b We al Savills a yea compr project presen copy o Estimate timate Nam ts to the va dered what d s (an advant bank is that w so took into s and Cushm ar ago. W rehensive NA t. This is nted below, of that work w ects t To otal Site A Area (ha) hanh Dist hanh Dist hu c Dist 2 c Dist 1 ng Dist ng Dist ng Dist Moc an Dist c Dist Notes: project, of the la yet to b Long’s NAV luations of c distressed inv tage of being we have acce o account th man & Wakef We are in AV model ba a more amb so investors when it has b C Ar Comp. rea (ha) 37.41 5.97 15.97 222.00 2 127.00 1 1.16 0.86 0.14 6.41 15.42 43.81 16.89 17.83 n/a 6.39 n/a 5.62 1) MBKE Valu , 2) In some c and/sqm does be incurred for V, we compa comparable vestors woul g a stockbro ess to such i he paid valu field for most the proce ased on our bitious unde s should fee been comple Rat o Ar te/sqm f Site rea ($) 28.86 5.97 13.13 12.00 12.00 1.16 0.86 0.14 4 6.41 11.95 23.69 16.89 17.83 2.30 6.39 7.21 5.62 uation is the v cases above t s not equate to r the project. Nam Long G red each of real estate ld be willing oker under t information). uation work t of NLG’s ke ss of deve forecast cas ertaking then l free to con ted. % O NLG wns 79 10 152 4 165 10 31 10 20 10 366 10 318 10 4,669 10 97 10 33 10 29 10 31 10 208 4 509 10 148 10 146 10 205 4 value of NLG’s the compensa o the MBKE d Group Nam Long’s projects, and to pay for N he umbrella s key d we NLG’s of a done by CB ey projects n eloping a m sh flows for n what we ntact us to g MB Valu ($ ' 00% 22 45% 4 00% 21 00% 65 00% 21 00% 4 00% 2 00% 6 00% 6 00% 2 00% 2 00% 5 40% 11 00% 10 00% 9 00% 10 45% 5 Totals: 212 So s ownership in ted area multi due to addition BRE, early more each have get a Book lue 610 595 326 643 638 562 562 864 675 760 942 409 444 207 120 885 452 694 m Long Page 8 BKE uation 000) NLG Val ,727 12,6 ,090 1, ,704 6, ,296 33,6 ,952 9,6 ,241 ,731 ,537 3, ,205 2,6 ,055 3, ,729 2, ,151 4 ,541 2,4 ,255 3,2 ,438 7, ,548 6, ,179 6,4 ,380 104, ource: MBKE, Nam nterest in each iplied by the v nal costs and t of 25 hv alue taxes
  • 9. 23 April 2013 Projec ct Name Water Thanh rpoint Townsh h residences) Nam L Long Resident Aquam marine Reside North West S Saigon Saigon East G Gate Residenc Ho Tra am/Oceana The B Capita Casa ridgeview al Tower llia Garden Golfview Greenhill Came The G The G C ip (inc An tial Area ences ces MBKE (USD ‘0 MBKE V NLG Bo Capital G Minority Net Pre- Cap Ga Net Cap NLG Ov MBKE B Adjusted Shares Share P BVPS (V Disc-to- Nam Comp Site Are (ha) 390 66 37 13 6 17 17 2 1< 6 6 1 1 NAV Analysi 000s) Valuation of Key ook Value of Key Gain on Project y Shareholders P -Tax Gains ins Tax (@ 25% pital Gain on Pro verall Book Valu Book Value Adju d Book Value (m) Price VND) NAV is y Projects y Projects ts Portion of Gain %) ojects ue per Balance S ustment Long Com ea Sheet mpany Ov NLG’s la verview argest townshi Apts, det center lo Apts, det 10km fro Apts, det 14 apart Detache schools, Resort w targeted Apt build Nam Lon High-clas 10km fro Mid to hi 5 apartm Apt build Project Des p project, 30k tached and se ocated in Can tached and se om CBD tached and se ment buildings d houses, hig 9 km from CB with hotels, det at the upper-i ding with 983 u ng's HQ office ss detached h om city center gh-end apartm ment buildings, ding with 275 u emi-detached Tho, the 2nd la emi-detached emi-detached s in Binh Tan h-end apartm BD tached houses income marke units in Dist. 7 e building, 12 s houses and ap ments in Binh , 10km from C units, 15km fro 212,380 104,694 107,686 6,353 101,333 25,333 75,999 60,604 75,999 136,604 96 16,800 30,039 -44% cription km from CBD houses, hosp argest city in t houses in Bin Group pital and rec, the south of VN nh Chanh Dist. houses 19km Dist., 13 km fr ents, commer Nam Long G N ., North of CBD rom CBD rcial areas and s and service et 7, 5 km from C stories, 80% le partments loca CBD eased out ated in Dist. 9, Chanh Dist., CBD om CBD apartments 10 km from C Source: Nam Page 9 of 25 D d , BD m Long
  • 10. 23 April 2013 Afford The pa this re aligned high-q The co years, HCMC previo There such comm and Q for lux Vietna that da compa We un poor q To be quality afforda an ove Unfort afforda tiny m has a dable Housin arallels we d port are not d its culture uality afforda ompany has with some m C’s D7, and l usly sold pro are other w as HAG, odity/resourc QCG a develo xury automo am’s real est abbled in rea any, and PNJ nderstand th quality with s clear, we a y affordable h able housing ersupply of h unately for in able housing arket caps ( market cap o Skilled In add previo thems real es the ma These to the the typ typical scaling custom Nam L develo apartm due to which typical are nin and al know various ng is in the drew betwee stretched. and busine able housing focused on minor side a leases out 8 ojects, has on well-known af which see ces business oper run by obiles that h tate bubble al estate suc J, a jewelry c at many affo shoddy const re not sayin housing, but g units in Vie igh-quality u nvestors, so g units are eit one popular of $20m). d Developer dition to the us section, w elves toward state market arket which is developers drawing boa pical 80-90s ly offered by g back the q mers in order Long has bui opers cannot ment building o standardisa also gives a 36 months ne stories h lso makes it that taller bu s complicatio Fabric of Na en Nam Long Nam Long m ess activities g. developmen activities: it o 80% of the fl ne resort pro ffordable ho ems to hav ses such as a mother-an has been h also produc h as HPG, a company. ordable apar truction, leak g that NLG t while there etnam (more nits. me of the ot ther unlisted r affordable r of Affordab e affordable we are also ds affordable is supported s more linked are reorient ard to shrink sqm offering y NLG. Som quality of the r to lower sel lt a core com t match. Its gs are more ation of desi quicker turn for other de igh, which m t easier to g uildings crea ons in the zo Nam Long G am Long’s D g and Ikea in made a serie s around the Group DNA n the headlin es of choices e developme nt of affordab owns its HQ oors, it man oject, etc.. using develo ve switched rubber, sug nd-son team it by a ser ced a stream steel compa ne of s that ent of ble housing fo office buildin ages some or 20 ng in of its opers in Viet d its focus ar, iron ore, with a penc ries of scan m of corpora any, KDC, a tnam s to etc., chant dals. ations food in HCMC a uneven floo producer of an oversupp low), there is rtment units ky roofs and is the only p currently is e on that bel ther produce , or are listed housing stoc ble Housing housing de aware of de e housing b d by real dem d to real esta ting their pro k the unit siz s of most d me develope eir interiors o lling prices. mpetency in construction than 20% b gn and verti naround time evelopers. A makes the b get zoning a ate more eco oning process are of oring. high-ply s not ers of high-qu d companies ck is TDH, w g evelopers m evelopers wh because this mand, unlike ate speculati oduct offering zes of their developers, t ers are also or delivering uality s with which mentioned in ho are reorie segment o the upper e on. gs by going apartments to the 40-60 cutting cost g empty she affordable ho n costs of c elow those o cally integra e of 12-18 m Also, most of buildings sim pproval (loca onomic valu s). n the nting f the nd of back from 0sqm ts by lls to ousing that t .$270/sqm fo of its compe ated construc months vs a m f NLG’s build mpler to cons al zoning bo e, which cre these or its titors ction, more dings struct oards eates Page 10 of 0 of 25
  • 11. 23 April 2013 The hi brand in the associ their q igh satisfacti the only oth market next iated with the uality). Focus Anothe the so during initiate that m develo marke In con predom below. ion of Nam her widely rec t to industry e affordabilit sed on the S er decision t outh of Vietn the real es ed projects in many of th opers that ru t. ntrast, NLG h minantly in t . Can Long’s custo cognised aff giant HAG ty of that com South of Viet the company nam where i state bubble n the then-ho hose project ushed in did Nam Long G omers has m fordable hou (whose bran mpany’s prod tnam y made whic t has clear e, there was ot Danang m ts were no not have a has focused he greater H ong An ects (384ha) 3 proje Tho s (72 ha) 3 projects Skilled Most Vietna proces landow and in protrac are re sausag Fund politica acquis which “lando countr Lo d at Land Ac of the value am occurs at ss by which wners and th nvolves entan cted compen eminded of ges, but no o managers n al power in sition and co can take f wners” in V ry’s land). Group made its “Eho sing brand n nd name is m ducts rather ch we applau expertise. A s a rush of market. Our ot successf deep unde its efforts o HCMC area, Binh 1 projec Duong ct (16ha) ome” name more than ud is to focu few years developers understandi ul because erstanding of on the south as can be s 8 projects (78 cquisition e created in t the land ac h land is ac hen re-zoned nglements w nsation nego the analogy one wants to new to Vietn Vietnam is mpensation rom 5-10 y Vietnam (eve HCMC 8 ha) n suburban cquisition sta cquired from d into use fo with local gov otiations with y to sausag o know how t nam should t s more diffu in Vietnam ears becaus en though th us on s ago that ng is the f that of Vietnam, seen in the m , and maps Vung Tau project (17 ha 1 p real estate age. We und m farmers an or housing is vernment of all the invol es – everyo hey are mad take note th use than in is a more pr se of the s he state tech a) developme derstand tha nd/or other s intricate, m fficials as we lved parties. one likes to de. hat the natu China, so rotracted pro uperior righ hnically own nt in at the local messy ell as We o eat re of land ocess ts of ns all Page 11 of 25
  • 12. 23 April 2013 NLG’s made with a townsh and B govern compa profita long track it one of the strong en hip developm CI or real e nment depar any) have t ble township Towns Towns center politica 40ha t After a as roa develo housin actual the inf is a mu Since the po most o the re develo develo last se of infra pro qu record of n e few private nough land ment. Usua estate develo rtments (NBB the political p developme ship Develo ship develop red around al connectio to 500ha (or acquiring the ads, sewers opers or ind ng; the origi building of h frastructure d uch easier b township de ortion of the s of the value i eason the opment is opment. All ection have astructure de uo between th Major Anothe proxim townsh CBD a The co is loca from d a few opene of the road s Nam L Can T betwee agricu prices, (which Finally infrast navigating t sector real e acquisition ally only SO opers like N B came from connections nt projects. opment – a P pment is hig land acquis ns to secur larger) direc e land, the d s, etc. and ividuals. Th nal townshi houses and/o development usiness than evelopment suburban rea is created, th government to facilitate of the othe construction evelopment he township Infrastructu er source of mity of its la hip developm are particular ompany’s lar ated in Long downtown HC years ago d, but that h city, so the d ystem inside Long’s large ho bridge wh en HCMC a lture area. T , including in h is not close y, we would ructure deve Nam Long G he land acq estate develo competenc OE developer NBB which w m the SOE r s needed t Profitable Bu ghly profitab sition. In sh re large swa tly from the g eveloper bu then sells hose plots a p developer or apartmen t is not neglig n building and is focused o al estate dev his is a highly t allows hig e suburban r township d businesses (the whole a developers a ure Develop f value creat andbanks to ment and o rly geared to rgest project An, 30km f CMC. This d before the r highway ends drive time w e HCMC is g Can Tho to hich opened and this key That bridge le n the areas w to this new like to menti elopment in Group quisition pro opers in Viet cy to unde rs like DIG, were spun o road constru to secure h usiness ble because hort, the dev aths of land government. ilds basic in plots of la are ultimately r may also t blocks as w gible (c. $50 d selling hou on land acq velopment va y profitable b gh profitabi n and othe developers m focused on arrangement and the gove pment Benef tion for Nam o major infra other project infrastructur t, The Water rom HCMC rive time is a recently built s currently e ill improve ev radually imp ownship dev in 2010 and y city in the ed to a mini-where ocess tnam rtake SJS out of uction highly the busines veloper use d anywhere ss is es its from such other d into f the ost of t this ents. ch is where art of nship cture n the pects quid frastructure and on to o y developed do some of well. The co -70/sqm) bu uses/apartme uisition, whic alue chain w business. Pa lity in town er infrastruc mentioned in n various asp is a sort of ernment). fit Nam’s Lo Long’s proj astructure p ts). Land pr re developme rpoint townsh and about a vast impro t Trung Luo nds abruptly ven more in roved. velopment be d dramatically heart of th -boom in Ca ong’s develo Nam L bridge). on that we’v HCMC rece ong’s Projec jects is the c rojects (for rices outside ent. hip developm 45-minute ovement from ong highway y at the perip the future a cts close both e the ment, drive m just was phery s the enefited from y cut travel t he Mekong D n Tho real e opment is loc ve noticed a ently. This is m the times Delta state cated up in g that distinct pick s something Page 12 2 of 25
  • 13. 23 April 2013 Highway H 1A, T and Vinh Lo Western W Bus S 1 1) Binh Chan Highways Van Linh, 1 Nguyen 1A and 50 other also co One t infrast way fo turn su via dire Local effectiv directly the pa metho causes make Hanoi, A map labels Tan Tao c IPs, Station 2) Binh Tan nh analysts and ommented o theory we h ructure boom or the govern upport the ba ect lending a real estate p ve method o y buying rea ast. Infrastru d of suppor s high inflatio land and a , where price p of Nam Lo identifying n d fund mana n in informal have heard m because i nment to sup anks which h and/or via loa prices benefi of supporting al estate proj ucture deve rting real es on. And this partment bu es fell the mo ng’s projects new/impendin agers based l discussions is that Viet nfrastructure pport the pro have large e ans backed b t from new r g real estate jects, an ide lopment wou state prices s method wo uildings on t ost, more des s in HCMC a ng infrastruct 5) CBD 3) D District 9 Thu Thiem East Wes Road 4) District t 7 Eas Road, D Nam Long G d in HCMC s at social ga tnam is on e developme operty marke exposure to r by real estate roads, so this e prices than a which has uld also be than printin ould be espe the peripher sirable. appears belo ture in close Group and Hanoi atherings, etc the cusp o ent is an effi et, which wou real estate p e collateral. s is a more n the govern s been moote a more targ ng money, w ecially effectiv ry of HCMC have c.. of an icient uld in prices cost-ment ed in geted which ve to and ow, together proximity. Highwa HCMC H Tunnel, t Ring d ay Hanoi, High Tech ark, P st West Ring Phu My Hun Bridge r with Page 13 ng 3 of 25
  • 14. 23 April 2013 Real Afford Severa the aff trends urbani develo prefere and 5) As can young mean familie townho Estate Ma dable Housin al factors ma fordable hou will lead to sation and d opment), 3) ence of Vietn ) the growing n be seen in . A mass of that these es and pre ouses in the Vietnam 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 arket Over ng Outlook ake us very sing market o a shortage developmen ) Vietnam’s namese to h g availability o the diagram f young peop couples no fer instead suburbs. m Age Profile Furthe cities, year g emerg will live One t efficien fertilise the Me ongoin and HC Vietna means pletho phone of two attract industr A simi estima e Tota below20 rview – Long Term y optimistic a in Vietnam: e of afforda t of the cou Nam Long G m (5 years) about the lon 1) demogra ble housing untry (includi n density, vings in gold tgages. age structure ng married, b t to live with their own population hold their sav of retail mort below, the a ple are gettin longer want to live in al Population ermore, only so the urba going forwa ging Asian co e in its major thing contrib ncy of Vietn ers/pesticide ekong Delta ng inflow of CMC. am’s continu s that many ra of high-t s. Binh Duo o suburbs o ting FDI to its rial parks is D lar story is h ate that the 20- (%) -40 about 30% anisation rate ard. If Vietn ountries, tha r cities 10 ye buting to u nam’s agricu es, more me will need fe young adult above 45 of Vietnam’s e is expecte nam follows an its likely t ears from now rbanisation ulture (i.e. b echanisation) wer workers ts from agric ued inflow o y of these s tech factorie ong, where so of HCMC tha s industrial p Dong Nai). happening in country wil Group ng-term futu aphic and cu , 2) the ong ing infrastruc 4) the cu d and real es re of ltural going cture ltural state, e of the coun but cultural s h their exte apartment s population ed to remain in the foo that about h w. is the grad bigger farms ). This mea s in the future culture famili of FDI into emi-skilled w es assembl ome of NLG at have bee parks (the oth ntry is shifts nded s or lives in its m n well over 3 otsteps of o alf of its citi major 3% a other izens dually impro , greater us ans that farm e, reinforcing ies into Can the manufa workers will ing electron ’s projects ar en particular her HCMC s Hanoi, whic ll actually h oving se of ms in g the Tho acturing ind find jobs in nics and m re located, is rly successf suburb with m ch has led th have a 900s ustry n the mobile s one ful in many he governme sqm shortag ent to ge of Page 14 4 of 25
  • 15. 23 April 2013 housin afforda ng by 2015, able housing Vietna We wo surpris per ca countr prefere estate Some that a than o until th apartm own re , ¾ of whic g the country am – a Crow ould like to m sed at how h apita. The fir ry, as can ence of the , which is a c visiting fund luxury apar ne in HCMC hey consider ments in Thai eal estate. Popula Country Korea, S Japan Philippi Vietnam China Indones Thailan Malaysi ch will be a needs. wded Countr make two oth high real esta rst point is th be seen in Vietnamese cultural artifa d managers t rtment in Ba C, despite Th r factors like iland and the ation Densitie y South ines m sia d ia We wo French c.8m p One o bulk of HCMC upper es in Asia ould also like h designed population; d f the criticism f its landban C will is now end housing Growi The m home family. produc Long. About buyers predom Also, m These Vietna The m lending ing Availabi mortgage mar purchases in . A nascent cts in the p 50% of Na s who get a m minately paid mortgages a figures ind am. mortgage ma g to SOEs, ry that Love er points to ate prices in he relatively h n the table e to hold the act of the cou to HCMC init angkok is no ailand’s muc population d e cultural pre Population ( 49 127 94 88 1,347 242 68 29 e to mention Saigon to b owntown, th ms some obs nk is far from too expens g products m lity of Mortg rket in Vietna n Vietnam w mortgage m primary mark am Long’s a mortgage fro d for in cash re not availa dicate the up arket is also corporate m) Per Ca one point th be a much s e streets are servers have m the center ive for afford ake econom gages am is still in were financed market exists ket by recog affordable ap om the bank, h (i.e. with “fr able yet for s pside poten o set to take buccaneers shortfall in Nam Long G Group n the amoun es Gold and investors wh Vietnam are high populati below. The eir savings untry’s long h tially find it s t that much ch higher per density, the eference of th apita Income 23,067 46,407 2,370 1,392 5,439 3,495 5,318 9,977 nt of Real Estate ho are somet e relative to ion density o e second is in gold and history of war surprising to more expen r capita inco greater supp he Vietname e times GDP of the s the real rs. learn nsive me – ply of se to . km Source: United N hat is specific smaller city e small, quain e made abou of HCMC. dable housin ic sense the Nations The urrent ed. at the ter of id-to-most c to HCMC. than the cu nt, and packe ut NLG is tha But the cent ng – only mi re. its infancy. d with loans s for purchas gnised deve In the past, from friends ses of real e elopers like partments ar but house p riends and fa secondary m tial for mort s and state Nam re purchase purchases are amily” financ market purcha tgage lendin e off becaus and other Pop per sq. 486 334 316 267 141 127 135 87 ed by e still cing). ases. ng in se after yea speculators rs of who Page 15 5 of 25
  • 16. 23 April 2013 create come third o produc the fu includi Past e easter when m d an NPL dis to recognise of Vietnames cts are signif ture for the ng mortgage experiences rn Europe s mortgage fin Afford We be sufficie probab to clea the go broker the un produc (Note CBRE centra We ex their c again. afforda officer year, 2 stabilis measu some We ex housin bumpi worst i dable Housin elieve that p ently such t bly take up to ar. Estimates overnment an rs are aroun nsold real es cts. that the job and Savills lised official xpect prices current levels The reason able housing workers, wi 2) we see pa sed, and the ures will act a real support xpect the res ng market an ng along the is over for th Office Mark ecent stabilis pect to happ of office spa cy rate in HC m $80/sqm t ecent stabilis ntrinsic dem ts moving ou t the same ti t interest in t ries has caus o not expect ent this year Is the The re we exp a glut vacanc fall fro The re real, i tenant and at robust industr We do segme saster for the e the huge o se hold a ba ficantly highe e banking in es. in the housin show that p nancing beco e banking ind opportunity of ank account, er than on co ndustry in V Nam Long G dustry, Vietn f retail banki and NIMs o orporate and Vietnam is in ng markets o roperty price omes widely a ng Outlook prices in the hat the mar o 2-3 years f s of the ove nd profession d $4-5b, alth tate inventor Group am’s banks ing. Less th on retail ban SOE lendin n retail ban of countries es are sign available. – Short Ter affordable h rket is near for the curre erall real est nal real esta hough our u ry in Vietnam of professio in Vietnam i land registry in the afford s, then stay ns we expec g is nearly w ith falling int arallels betwe e affordable as a catalyst to the marke st of 2013 to nd for Vietna e bottom but e low end of have han a nking g, so nking, like Brazil a nificantly boo rm (1 year) housing segm equilibrium ent supply-de tate inventor te research understandin m is compris onal real est is complicate y). dable housin firm for the ct price stab within reach terest rates s een the offic housing ma t to improve et. o be slow a am’s econom t with a clea f the real esta ket a Preview ation of the o pen in the aff ace came ont CMC to shoo to about $30/ ation of the G mand for off ut of inferior me, the cont the country b sed the take the same th because inte nd in osted ment have f , although it emand imbal ry overhang firms/comme g is that mo sed of higher tate research ed by the fac fallen t will ance from ercial ost of r-end hers at firms ct that there s like is no near rising re: 1) class hin a cently mulus give to stabilise ears before r ear future ar s of middle-c the gap with hich has rec ernment stim nd may also ng segment next 2-3 ye ility in the ne h of a mass set to close ce market, w rket, 3) gove sentiment a and steady fo my as a who r upward bia ate market. w of the Affo office leasing fordable hous to the marke ot up to 25% /sqm. Grade A & B fice space. office space tinued inflow by multinatio -up rate for n hing to happ erest rates n or the afford ole, which is as. We think ordable Hou g market is a sing market. et, causing th % and Grade dable s still k the using Marke preview of Two years he Grade A o e A office ren office leasin There has e into better w of FDI into onal compan new office sp pen in the af eed to fall a et? what ago, office nts to ng rates is d been a rus quality build Vietnam and ies in a rang pace to soar. ffordable hou bit more to r ue to sh of dings d the ge of . using reach Page 16 6 of 25
  • 17. 23 April 2013 the aff their a housin fordability cr appetite for ng is probably Falling We ex lending up the deman We be Our vi centra like to Inflatio horizo correc riteria we out lending (als y not quite a g Interest R xpect interes g again by th eir NPL‘s. nd. elieve lendin iew is predic l bank, inclu see lending on is currentl n that cloud ction in the pr Inflatio tlined below so, the pen as strong as t ates st rates fall he end of the This should , and banks nt-up deman that for qualit a bit more t e year as the d trigger a g rates shou cated on rep uding SBV go rates fall to y running at ds the inflat rices of oil an on Under Con 30% % 25% % 20% % 15% % 10% % 5% % 0% % ntrol Y/Y CPI 2006 2007 Afford The fo within unders that th gross We ha manag who h and in like the for inc 35%. specia 7 2008 dable Housin ollowing tab reach of a m standing, the he monthly m monthly inco ave identified ger in a Vietn as a wife w industries li e “Big Four” comes in this Note that t al loan progra Group need to res nd for afford ty office spac this year an ey make pro surge in aff uld fall to c. peated com overnor Binh 10% if inflatio 6.6% and w tion picture, nd other com ng is Almos le illustrates mass of eme e standard te mortgage pa ome. d what we th namese com working as a ke finance o ” audit firms, s bracket is the 6% inte amme descri Nam Long G sume dable ce). start aning using nd banks to gress in clea fordable hou 10% by the ments from h, that the go on remains b we do not see especially g mmodities. 2009 20 010 2011 st… Afforda s that afford erging middle est of afforda ayment shou end of the y members o overnment w below 7%. e anything o given the re ble dable housin e-class office ability by mo uld be no m hink a realist mpany with fiv secretary (s r for workers etc.). Note c.20%; the rest rate in ibed in the ne year. of the would n the ecent 2012 2 2013 ng is now n e workers. In ortgage office ore than 30 tic salary for ve years’ wo salaries are s in professio e that the tax maximum in the table a ext section. early n our ers is % of r a typical m rking experie higher at M onal service x rate in Viet ncome tax ra bove refers middle ence, MNCs firms tnam ate is to a Page 17 7 of 25
  • 18. 23 April 2013 Afforda Profess Secreta Apartm Down P Loan Pr Term (y Interest Loan Pm Loan Pm ability Analys sional Salary ary Salary ent/Home Cos Payment rinciple yrs) t Rate mt mt / Gross Inco Gover The go end of earma borrow The p fixed f proper smalle marke We are have o feature borrow for the loans, only fix proper Also, w govern marke purcha things distant sis, in USD t ome rnment Supp overnment h f the real est arked $1.4b wers of low-c rogramme w for the first t rties must co er than 70 s t. e not clear h on the mark e of the pro wers’ interest e first three linked to ba xed for six m rties, given th we believe t nment annou t. We do ases of real like minor t t) future. New R The fin marke impact bubble the lon These financi who h unders port Measur has come ou tate market, in soft loan cost housing. will provide three years ost below VN sqm – which how much im ket vis-à-vis ogramme, in t rates (and t years. Most anks’ deposit months at mo he wide swin that this and unced should not expect estate signi tax cuts and Regulations nal topic to t are a few ted the mar e, helped def nger term. measures ing needs, s have recentl stand how th Decrease R cover in this w key regula rket. The m flate prices b impacted r so it is parti y started lo hese changes 1,000 400 50,000 10,000 40,000 15 6% 338 24% res t with some the most im s to provide subsidised l of the mort ND15m/$715 h is exactly mpact this su the supply n addition to their monthly t mortgages t rates, so b ost. That inc ngs in interes d the other s d help suppo the other m ificantly – th d REITs at Revenues, In s discussion atory change measures, e but will also l real estate icularly impo ooking at Vi s have affect 10 4 31 Nam Long G measures to portant of wh e cheap mo loans at a 6 gage’s 15-ye per sqm, an Nam Long’s bsidised loan overhang, b o a low inte y loan payme in Vietnam orrowers’ loa creases their st rates in rec support mea rt sentiment measures to hose other in some point ncrease Fina about Vietn es in 2010 enacted in t lead to a hea firms’ finan ortant for ov ietnam’s pro ted local rea Group e low t has end-rate, igible sizes of the e will active that fixed rate s are o buy h the state actual clude bably ds state cantly f the try in and stors et to s. Page 18 0% 30 1% o support the hich is that it ortgages for 6% interest ear life. Eli nd have unit s s segment o n programme but one attra rest rate, is ents) will be are floating an payments hesitancy to cent years. asures which in the real e o support a ncentives inc in the (prob ancing Need nam’s real e that signific the wake of althier indust cial results verseas inve operty marke l estate firms 15% 560 40% 8 of 25
  • 19. 23 April 2013 The m most importan • • • Impac The ac Long’s and pr after t stop re were c This c booke (remem a proje There custom revenu alread hando Those balanc levera compa payme revenu nt rule chang : This rule l with advance peculators b ments of c when constr leted), with t n. te developer ng to borrow more distress ubble years due to their customer pay 9: This rule r marked for ation process fect Nam Lon had already effect, but CI. enue Recogn m previously n accounting as they colle only able to viously sold eted and han Decree 71 projects w bubble, s downpaym payments was comp completion Real estat avoid havi not been m the post-b leveraged advance c Decree 69 land earm compensa did not aff landbank came into such as BC New Reve in Vietnam recognition revenues are now o were prev are comple ct of New Re ccounting ru s profits dipp rofits will sho he revenue ecognising r completed. caused reven d now tha mber that NL ect). is little cha mers becaus ue recognitio y paid 70-8 ver. advance pa ce sheet, giv ged than it anies). It a ents on Nam ue. es are: imited real e customer pa bought mult .20%, and ruction starte the hope of estate firms’ ayments. A tiple apartm then mak ed (but befor “flipping” the rs used adv w from the b sed real esta is that many r previous ab yments. aised taxes acquisition s had not be ng much bec y been fully Decree 69 Nam Long G Group ability to fin At the peak o ments by pu ing even m re the found e properties vance custom anks. One r ate activity in y developers bility to fund ance of the utting more ation upon mer paymen reason there n Vietnam d s were not h themselves that develop n but for een complete cause a high compensate did affect s nition Treatm y had a wid g. Many f ected payme o recognise to customer nded over to egulations o ule change m ped 43% in F oot up this y recognition revenues on nts to e has uring highly with pers must pa which the ed yet. This h proportion ed when the some develo ment: Real e de latitude firms previo ents from cu revenues fro rs at the tim the custome on Nam Long mentioned ab FY11 and 78 year and nex policy was newly sold nues and pro at some of LG has a tur ay on full s rule of its rule opers estate develo in their reve ously recogn ustomers. F om projects me those pro er. g bove helps e 8% FY12, an xt. In the ye changed, de projects un ofits to plung the produ rnaround tim ance that th e the payme on policy ch 80% of the opers enue nised Firms that ojects explain why nd why reve ears immedi evelopers ha til those pro ge, but the r ucts coming e of about 1 he products ent schedules ange. This cost of the ayments are ving the firm really is (a also means m Long’s bala Nam nues ately ad to ojects revenues ca g to compl 2-18 to com an be etion plete handed ove nged, despite customers by the tim will not be s never chan means that e apartment sitting on th the superfici common that the c.$ ance sheet is e liability sid ial appearan problem for $15m of ad s all nearly g er to e the have me of de of Nam Lo ce that it is m r all real e dvance custo guaranteed fu ong’s more state omer uture Page 19 9 of 25
  • 20. 23 April 2013 Finally most r longer This h marke financi We wo in a se y, we note th real estate c r able to fund elps explain t; we expect ing within the ould encoura econdary issu hat Decree 7 companies i d themselves why Nam Lo t that the firm e next year age any clien ue to contact 71 has incre in Vietnam s with advanc ong recently m will need in the form o nts that may t us. Nam Long G eased the fin because tho ced custome listed its sha to raise ano of CBs and/o be intereste Group nancing need ose firms ar er payments. ares on the s other $10-20 or straight eq ed in particip ds of re no stock 0m of quity. ating Page 20 0 of 25
  • 21. PROFI FYE D IT AND LOSS (VND b ec Sales COGS Gross Operat EBIT Net fin Net Inc Net ex PBT Income Minorit Net pr EBITD EPS profit ting exp. ancial incomes (loss) come (loss) fr. jv traodinaries e tax ty interest ofit A CASH FYE D FLOW (VND b) ec ting cash flow profit preciation ange in working capita ers ment cash flow capex ange in investment ange in other assets flow after Investment cing cash flow ange in share capital change in debt ers paid ash flow Opera Net Dep Cha Othe Invest Net Cha Cha Cash f Financ Cha Net Othe Div Net ca Sourc ce: Company, M 23 Apr ril 2013 b) 2009 630.6 -330.2 300.4 -90.6 209.9 6.9 6.8 3.3 226.9 -37.4 -30.8 158.6 215.1 1,842.6 2009 31.7 158.6 5.3 al -714.3 582.1 -197.2 -59.1 -151.1 13.0 -165.5 180.9 120.0 73.3 -0.0 -12.4 15.3 Maybank KE est 2010 839.8 7 -490.4 -4 349.4 2 -112.6 -1 236.8 1 -9.0 10.3 7.8 245.9 1 -64.2 4.9 186.6 1 246.7 1 2,020.8 1,1 2010 -13.4 -1 186.6 1 9.9 -182.7 -4 -27.2 1 -4.5 -2.1 -20.6 18.3 -17.9 -2 102.8 1 167.9 -58.8 1 - -6.3 84.9 timates 2011 2012 734.0 461.7 459.4 -260.0 274.6 201.7 159.9 -126.1 114.7 75.7 -11.2 -68.8 1.8 0.4 87.9 52.4 193.3 59.6 -56.1 -29.0 -30.0 -5.9 107.2 24.6 124.4 88.0 160.7 258.0 2011 2012E 198.5 -202.7 107.2 24.6 9.7 12.3 476.7 -280.7 161.3 41.0 -29.2 2.2 -3.6 -10.5 -51.6 5.8 26.1 6.9 227.7 -200.6 163.1 172.4 - 6.5 175.1 172.7 - 0.0 -12.0 -6.8 -64.6 -28.1 BA ALANCE SHEET (VN YE Dec 2013F FY 779.2 To -449.3 Cu 330.0 Ca -139.9 ST 190.1 Inv -28.4 Tra otal assets urrent assets ash T investment ventories ade receivable thers ther assets T Investment et fix assets thers otal liabilities urrent liabilities ade payable dvance from customer T borrowings thers ong-term liabilities ong-term debts thers hareholders' equity aid in capital eserve nority interests - Ot - Ot 161.7 LT -37.4 Ne -17.2 Ot 107.1 To 202.1 Cu 1,121.5 Tra Ad ST Ot Lo Lo Ot Sh Pa Re Mi KE EY RATIOS YE Dec 2013F FY 79.9 Gr 107.1 Sa 12.0 Op 11.5 EB (50.6) Ne -202.0 EP -14.6 Pr -180.2 Gr -7.2 Op -122.1 EB 121.4 Ne 12.4 RO 68.3 RO 2.4 St 38.2 Gr -0.7 Ne rowth (% YoY) ales perating profit BITDA et profit PS rofitability (%) ross margin perating margin BITDA margin et margin OA OE ability ross debt/equity (%) et debt/equity (%) t. coverage (X) t. & ST debt coverage ash flow int. coverage ash flow int. & ST deb urrent ratio (X) uick ratio (X) et cash/(debt) (VND b er share data (VND ) PS FPS VPS PS BITDA/share PS Int Int Ca Ca Cu Qu Ne Pe EP CF BV SP EB DP ND b) 200 09 2010 2,330 1,781 121 0.0 2,470.3 2 .8 1,925.6 2 .3 206.2 5.0 5 2.7 1,411.0 2 3.6 289.4 9.2 19.0 8.2 544.7 0.7 453.9 9.5 49.1 8.0 41.7 5.7 1,100.9 1 0.7 1,018.2 1 8.1 91.9 5.1 501.6 9.5 195.8 8.0 228.9 5.0 82.7 2.4 56.4 2.6 26.3 4.3 1,369.4 1 9.7 945.2 1 3.8 244.6 0.8 179.6 1,342 303 9 548 500 9 38 1,245 1,160 68 rs 585 219 288 85 72 12 1,084 649 233 200 200 09 2010 n/n a 33.2 n/n a 12.8 n/n a 14.7 n/n a 17.7 n/n a 9.7 47 33 34 25 13 35 7.6 41.6 3.3 28.2 4.1 29.4 5.2 22.2 3.6 7.8 5.9 18.0 33 18 33 3.0 21.2 8.7 3.9 3.5 13.9 .8 1.1 5.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 .5 1.9 0.4 0.5 5.6 -46.0 e (X) 1 (X) 5 bt (X) 0 1 0 b) -165 1,84 17 10,26 7,32 2,49 23 Nam Long G Group 2,894.7 3,069.8 2,403.7 2,604.5 141.6 113.5 2,059.0 2,197.8 179.2 264.9 23.9 26.5 491.0 465.2 352.7 328.7 53.3 60.1 85.0 76.4 1,382.2 1,514.5 ,183.8 1,357.6 72.9 100.8 369.8 306.8 295.4 518.1 445.7 431.9 198.4 156.9 172.7 122.7 25.7 34.2 1,512.5 1,555.2 ,029.4 1,078.4 200.2 194.3 282.9 282.5 38.1 50.4 26.6 41.3 5.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 -9.0 -2.7 -0.7 -0.4 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.3 -326.5 -525.6 43 2,021 78 919 62 12,882 1 25 9,093 99 2,671 37 356 2011 2012 1.8 2011 2012E -12.6 -37.1 -51.6 -34.0 -49.6 -29.2 -42.6 -77.0 -42.6 -77.8 37.4 43.7 15.6 16.4 16.9 19.1 14.6 5.3 4.0 0.8 8.9 2.0 1,161 258 -699 -294 13,314 13,325 7,947 4,834 1,347 922 533 400 Page 21 2013F 68.8 151.2 129.6 334.7 334.7 42.3 24.4 25.9 13.7 3.4 8.1 51.4 43.1 4.3 0.4 1.8 0.2 2.1 0.3 -594.5 1,121 -7 14,446 8,158 2,116 400 of 25
  • 22. P K BA Region (65) 64 WONG Acting (603) 2 ONG S Region (65) 64 ASU nal Head, Research & 432 1821 pk.basu@m Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of In 2297 8686 wchewh@ Seng Yeow nal Products & Plann 432 1453 ongsengye WONG C (603) 2 ƒ Stra ƒ Co Desmo (603) 2 ƒ Ban LIAW T (603) 2 ƒ Oil ƒ Aut ƒ Shi ONG Ch (603) 2 ƒ Pla Mohsh (603) 2 ƒ Avi ƒ Pet ƒ Pow YIN Sha (603) 2 ƒ Ga ƒ Me ƒ Pow TAN CH (603) 2 ƒ Co ƒ Pow WONG W (603) 2 ƒ Pro LEE Ye (603) 2 ƒ Bui ƒ Ma ƒ Tec LEE Ch chengh ƒ Tec Edward (852) 2 ƒ Co Ivan CH (852) 2 ƒ Pro ƒ Ind Ivan LI (852) 2 ƒ Ban Jacque (852) 2 ƒ Co Andy P (852) 2 ƒ Tel Alex YE (852) 2 ƒ Ind Warren (852) 2 ƒ Tec Karen (852) 2 ƒ Ch Jeremy (852) 2 ƒ Ga Jigar S (91) 22 ƒ Oil ƒ Aut ƒ Cem Anubh (91) 22 ƒ Me ƒ Ca ƒ Pro Ganesh (91) 22 ƒ Tel ƒ Co 23 Apr ril 2013 M Chew Hann, CA Head 297 8686 wchewh@m ategy nstruction & Infrastruct ond CH’NG, ACA 297 8680 desmond.ch nking - Regional hong Jung 297 8688 tjliaw@mayb & Gas tomotive ipping hee Ting, CA 297 8678 ct.ong@may antations hin AZIZ 297 8692 mohshin.azi ation trochem wer ao Yang, CPA 297 8916 samuel.y@m ming – Regional dia wer HI WEI, CFA 297 8690 chiwei.t@ma nstruction & Infrastruct wer Wei Sum, CFA 297 8679 weisum@ma operty & REITs en Ling 297 8691 lee.yl@mayb ilding Materials nufacturing chnology heng Hooi Head of Re hooi.lee@maybank-ib.c chnicals HONG d FUNG Head of Resea 268 0632 edwardfung@ nstruction HEUNG, CFA 268 0634 ivancheung@ operty ustrial , CFA 268 0641 ivanli@kime nking & Finance eline KO, CFA 268 0633 jacquelineko nsumer POON 268 0645 andypoon@ ecom & equipment EUNG 268 0636 alexyeung@ ustrial n LAU 268 0644 warrenlau@ chnology - Regional KWAN 268 0640 karenkwan@ ina Property y TAN 268 0635 jeremytan@ ming SHAH Head of Research 6623 2601 jigar@ma & Gas tomobile ment av GUPTA 6623 2605 anubhav@ tal & Mining pital goods operty h RAM 6623 2607 ganeshram ecom ntractor REG Economics maybank-ke.com.sg nstitutional Research @maybank-ib.com ning eow@maybank-ke.co MALAYSIA d of Research maybank-ib.com ture hng@maybank-ib.com bank-ib.com ybank-ib.com z@maybank-ib.com maybank-ib.com aybank-ib.com ture aybank-ib.com bank-ib.com tail com KONG / CHINA arch @kimeng.com.hk @kimeng.com.hk eng.com.hk o@kimeng.com.hk @kimeng.com.hk @kimeng.com.hk @kimeng.com.hk @kimeng.com.hk @kimeng.com.hk INDIA h aybank-ke.co.in @maybank-ke.co.in m@maybank-ke.co.in IONAL om.sg G( 6 ƒ ƒ W( 6 ƒ ƒJ a (6 ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒY E (6 ƒA l (6 ƒ ƒB e (6 ƒO( 6 ƒ W( 6 ƒ ƒ Ka (6 ƒ ƒ ƒL u (6 ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒR a (6 ƒ ƒP a (6 ƒ ƒ ƒ ƒA d (6 ƒA n (6 ƒ ƒ ƒA r (6 ƒ Lu (6 ƒL a (6 ƒ ƒ ƒL o (6 ƒ ƒ ƒK e (6 ƒ ƒ ƒK a (6 ƒ ƒR a (6 ƒ RESEA regory YAP Head of R 65) 6432 1450 gyap@m Technology & Manu Telcos - Regional Wilson LIEW 65) 6432 1454 wilsonlie Hotel & Resort Property & Construc ames KOH 65) 6432 1431 jamesko Logistics Resources Consumer Small & Mid Caps EAK Chee Keong, CFA 65) 6432 1460 yeakche Offshore & Marine lison FOK 65) 6432 1447 alisonfok Services S-chips ernard CHIN 65) 6432 1146 bernardc Transport (Land, Sh NG Kian Lin 65) 6432 1470 ongkian REITs / Property Wei Bin 65) 6432 1455 weibin@ S-chips Small & Mid Caps atarina SETIAWAN Hea 62) 21 2557 1125 katar Consumer Strategy Telcos ucky ARIESANDI, CFA 62) 21 2557 1127 lucky Base metals Mining Oil & Gas Wholesale ahmi MARINA 62) 21 2557 1128 rahm Banking Multifinance andu ANUGRAH 62) 21 2557 1137 pand Automotive Heavy equipment Plantation Toll road di N. WICAKSONO 62) 21 2557 1128 adi.w Generalist nthony YUNUS 62) 21 2557 1139 antho Cement Infrastructure Property rwani PRANADJAYA 62) 21 2557 1129 arwa Technicals uz LORENZO Head of R 63) 2 849 8836 luz_lore Strategy aura DY-LIACCO 63) 2 849 8840 laura_d Utilities Conglomerates Telcos ovell SARREAL 63) 2 849 8841 lovell_s Consumer Media Cement enneth NERECINA 63) 2 849 8839 kennet Conglomerates Property Ports/ Logistics atherine TAN 63) 2 849 8843 kat_tan Banks Construction amon ADVIENTO 63) 2 849 8845 ramon_ Mining ARCH OFFIC CES ILIAS onomist apore | Malaysia 97 8682 suhaimi_ilia ENZO ppines | Indonesia 49 8836 luz_lorenzo@ LAHAPHAN and 8 1420 tim.l@mayba Suhaimi Chief Eco ƒ Singa (603) 229 Luz LOR ƒ Philip (63) 2 84 Tim LEEL ƒ Thaila (662) 658 SINGAPORE Research maybank-ke.com.sg ufacturing ew@maybank-ke.com. ction oh@maybank-ke.com.s .sg sg A eekeong@maybank-ke e.com.sg k@maybank-ke.com.s sg chin@maybank-ke.com hipping & Aviation) lin@maybank-ke.com. @maybank-ke.com.sg INDONESIA m.sg .sg ad of Research rina.setiawan@mayban nk-ke.co.id y.ariesandi@maybank-mi. -ke.co.id marina@maybank-ke e.co.id du.anugrah@maybank-wicaksono@ -ke.co.id maybank-k ke.co.id ony.yunus@maybank-ni. ke.co.id pranadjaya@mayba PHILIPPINES Research enzo@maybank-atrke. ank-ke.co.id dyliacco@maybank-atr com ke.com sarreal@maybank-atrk ke.com th_nerecina@maybank k-atrke.com n@maybank-atrke.com m _adviento@maybank-a atrke.com ECONOM MICS s@maybank-ib.com @maybank-atrke.com ank-ke.co.th m Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL (66) 2658 6300 ext Sukit.u@maybank- Maria LAPIZ Head Dir (66) 2257 0250 Maria.L@maybank- ƒ Consumer/ Big Andrew STOTZ Str (66) 2658 6300 ext Andrew@maybank Mayuree CHOWVIK (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Strategy Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Media ƒ Commerce Sutthichai KUMWO (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Energy ƒ Petrochem Termporn TANTIVIV (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Property Woraphon WIROON (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Banking & Fina Jaroonpan WATTA (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Transportation ƒ Small cap. Chatchai JINDARA (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Electronics Pongrat RATANATA (66) 2658 6300 ext ƒ Services/ Smal Michael KOKALARI, (84) 838 38 66 47 m ƒ Strategy Nguyen Thi Ngan (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Food and Beve ƒ Oil and Gas Ngo Bich Van (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Banking Trinh Thi Ngoc Die (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Technology ƒ Utilities ƒ Construction Dang Thi Kim Tho (84) 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Consumer Nguyen Trung Hoa +84 844 55 58 88 x ƒ Steel ƒ Sugar ƒ Resources THAILAND L Head of Research 5090 ke.co.th of Institutional Researc | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1 -ke.co.th Caps rategist 5091 -ke.co.th RAN 1440 mayuree.c@ma B 1430 suttatip.p@mayb RACHAI 1400 sutthichai.k@ma VAT 1520 termporn.t@may NSRI 1560 woraphon.w@m ance ANAWONG 1404 jaroonpan.w@m AT 1401 chatchai.j@may AVANANANDA 1398 pongrat.R@may l Caps VIETNAM , CFA Head of Resear michael.kokalari@may Tuyen 8081 tuyen.nguyen@ erage 8084 van.ngo@mayb ep 8242 diep.trinh@may oa 8083 thoa.dang@ma a 8088 hoa.nguyen@m Nam Long G Group m.vn vn Page 22 D ch 399 ybank-ke.co.th bank-ke.co.th aybank-ke.co.th ybank-ke.co.th maybank-ke.co.th maybank-ke.co.th ybank-ke.co.th ybank-ke.co.th rch bank-kimeng.com.vn @maybank-kimeng.com bank-kimeng.com.vn ybank-kimeng.com.vn aybank-kimeng.com.vn maybank-kimeng.com.v 2 of 25
  • 23. APPE NDIX I: TERM DISCLA This res offer to each se Technic informa invested take int should recomm The info Investm this rep (collect report. A This re “intend” achieve subject Reader forward events. MKE an time to from su related act upo officers This rep whole o actions This rep other ju circums investo location Malays Opinion ratings Securiti Singap This rep KERPL Mayban expert i content Thailan The dis Office o and the perspec Corpora Public C Except MBKET US This re Securiti (registe the US US. Th should legislati UK This do Service Service respons constitu AIMERS search report is p sell or a solicitat ecurity’s price o cal ratings may d ation extracted fr d. Past performa to account the sp therefore seek f mended in this re ormation contain ment Bank Berha port by MKE and ively, “Represen Any information, port may contain ”, “plan”, “expect ed and other sim to certain risks rs are cautioned d looking stateme nd its officers, dir time participate uch issuers, and/ thereto. In addi on or use the info and/or employe port is prepared or in part in any fo of third parties in port is not directe urisdiction where stances as may b rs. Without preju n of the person o sia ns or recommen as technical val ies Berhad in the pore port has been pr L”) in Singapore nk KERPL in Sin nvestor or institu ts of this report, w nd sclosure of the s of the Securities e market for Alte ctive of a third p ate Governance Company Limited as specifically p T accepts no liab search report p ies Exchange Ac ered under Sectio shall be borne b is report is not d satisfy yourself ion and regulatio ocument is being es Authority and i es and Markets A sibility for its co uting legal, accou 23 Apr ril 2013 MS FOR PROV VISION OF R prepared for gen tion of an offer to or value may ris differ from funda rom the relevant ance is not nece pecific investmen financial, legal a eport. ned herein has b ad, its subsidiary d it should not b ntatives”) shall no opinions or reco n forward looking t”, “forecast”, “pr milar expressions s and uncertainti not to place und ents to reflect ne REPORT, DISC neral circulation a o buy the securit e or fall. Opinio mental ratings a jurisdiction’s sto essarily a guide t nt objectives, the nd other advice CLAIMERS A and for informatio ies referred to he ons or recomme s technical valua ock exchange in to future perform e financial situat regarding the ap been obtained fro and affiliates (co be relied upon as ot be liable for a ommendations co g statements wh redict” and “proje s. Such forward l ies that could ca ue relevance on ew information, e rectors and empl or invest in fina or have a positio tion, it may make ormation presente es of MKE may b for the use of M orm or manner w n this respect. ed to or intended e such distributio be permitted by udice to the fore r entity receiving ND DISCLOS on purposes only erein. Investors s endations contain ations apply diffe the equity analy mance. This repo ion and the part ppropriateness o om sources belie ollectively, “MKE s such. Accordin any direct, indire ontained herein a hich are often bu ect” and stateme looking statemen ause the actual these forward-lo events or circum loyees, including ancing transactio on or holding, or e markets in the ed herein, or the be a director of t MKE’s clients and without the prior e SURES y and under no c should note that ned herein are erent methodolog ysis. Accordingly ort is not intende icular needs of p of investing in an eved to be reliab E”) and conseque ngly, MKE and i ct or consequen are subject to ch ut not always ide ents that an even nts are based on results to differ ooking statement mstances after th g persons involve ons with the issu other material in securities menti e research or ana he issuers of the d may not be rep express written c d for distribution t on, publication, a applicable law. T egoing, the read g this report. dations containe luations apply d e equity analysis. ircumstances sh values of such s in form of techn gies and are pur y, investors’ retu ed to provide per persons who ma ny securities or t ble but such sour ently no represe ts officers, direc ntial losses or da ange at any time entified by the us nt or result “may n assumptions m r materially from ts. MKE express he date of this p ed in the prepara er(s) of the secu terest, or effect t oned in the mate alysis on which th e securities ment produced, altered consent of MKE a to or use by any availability or use The securities de er is to note tha ed herein are in ifferent methodo . roduced as of th has no obligatio gapore in respec utional investor (a with such liability Nam Long G ould it be consid securities, if any, nical ratings and rely based on pri rns may be less rsonal investmen ay receive or rea the investment s rces have not be ntation is made ctors, associates amages that may e, without prior no se of words suc y”, “will”, “can”, “ made and inform m those expresse ly disclaims any ublication or to r ation or issuance urities mentioned transactions, in s erial presented in hey are based, b ioned in this repo d in any way, tra and MKE and its person or entity e would be contr escribed herein m at additional disc the form of tech ologies and are he date hereof an on to update suc ct of any matters as defined under y being limited to urvey result of th and Exchange C ernative Investm party. It is not an Report of Thai d (“MBKET”) doe permitted, no par ility whatsoever f Group ered or intended may fluctuate an d fundamental r ice and volume-r s than the origina nt advice and do d this report. Inv strategies discus een independent as to the accura s, connected par y arise from the otice. ch as “anticipate” should”, “could” mation currently a ed in any forwa obligation to upd reflect the occur of this report, m d in this report, p such securities o n this report. MK before the materi ort. ansmitted to, cop Representatives who is a citizen o rary to law or reg may not be eligib claimers, warning hnical ratings an purely based on nd the informatio ch information fo arising from, or r Section 4A of th the extent (if any he Thai Institute Commission. The ment disclosed to n evaluation of o Listed Compani es not confirm no rt of this present for the actions of repared by MKE ct of 1934, as a on 15 of the Sec by Maybank KES directed at you if before reading ons. d as an nd that atings. related al sum oes not vestors ssed or ly verified by Ma acy or completen rties and/or emp use or reliance aybank ness of loyees of this ”, “believe”, “esti or “might” occur available to us a rd looking statem date or revise an rrence of unantic ay, to the extent perform services or options thereon KE may, to the e al is published. imate”, r or be nd are ments. y such cipated permitted by law s for or solicit bu n, or other invest xtent permitted b One or more dire pied or distribute s accepts no liab or resident of or gulation. This re ble for sale in all gs or qualificatio nd fundamental r n price and volu on herein may b or any recipient. in connection wi he Singapore Se y) as permitted b of Directors Ass e survey of the IO o the public and operation and is ies. As a result, or certify the accu tation may be re f third parties in t E is distributed amended) only b curities Exchange SUSA. All result f MKE is prohibit it that Maybank g distributed by is for Information Act 2000 within omments or accu unting or tax adv w, from usiness tments by law, ectors, ed to any other p bility whatsoever located in any lo eport is for distrib jurisdictions or t ons may apply b ratings. Technica me-related inform party in for the ocality, state, cou bution only unde to certain catego based on geogra al ratings may d mation extracted nge. Maybank K n in Singapore, r the recipient of t ures Act), Mayba e subject to cha . For distribution th, this report. If curities and Futu by law. regarding corpo the information o essed by a gen nside information y be changed af rvey result. tributed in any m sociation (“IOD”) OD is based on t able to be acc not based on in the survey may uracy of such sur eproduced or dist this respect. in the United St by Maybank Kim e Act of 1934, as ting transactions ted or restricted k KESUSA is pe Maybank Kim E nal Purposes only the UK. Any inc uracy, and that ice, and that for a tates (“US”) to M Eng Securities s amended). All s by a US person by any legislatio ermitted to prov Eng Securities ( y. This documen clusion of a third access to such accurate guidanc untry or er such ories of aphical differ from fundam d from Bursa Ma Kim Eng Researc recipients of this this report is not ank KERPL shall orate governance of a company list eral public inves n.The survey res fter that date. M mental alaysia ch Pte. Ltd. (“Ma s report are to c an accredited inv be legally liable e is made pursua ted on the Stock stor. The result, sult is as of the aybank Kim Eng manner without t Major US Institu USA Inc (“Mayb responsibility for n or entity should on or regulation vide research m London) Ltd (“M nt is not intended party link is for links is at the ce recipients sho aybank contact vestor, for the ant to the policy k Exchange of Th therefore, is fro date appearing g Securities (Tha he prior written utional Investors bank KESUSA”) r the distribution d be effected thr in any jurisdictio aterial concernin Maybank KESL”) for distribution t r the recipients c individuals own ould consult with of the hailand om the in the ailand) permission of M BKET. Rule 15a-6 und er registered in t y Maybank KESU ed broker-dealer t available to yo to you under re (as defined in , a broker-deale of this report by rough a registere on from making it ng investments ) which is autho to anyone define convenience only risk. Nothing in their own indepe orized and regul d as a Retail Clie y, and that the f n this report sho endent tax advise der the he US USA in r in the u. You elevant ated, by the Fin ent under the Fin firm does not tak ould be conside ers. nancial nancial ke any red as Page 23 3 of 25
  • 24. DISCL Legal E Malays Malaysi and dis Eng Se MBKET Exchan and Ex StateSe Eng Se Stock E Mercha Mayban Disclo Malays as mark services Singap Thailan researc parties Hong K 16.5(a) As of 23 MKE m issues o services in this r OTHE Analys The vie the rese Remind Structu of unde factors issuer o profess No part LOSURES Entities Disclos sia: This report i ia Berhad and a stributed in Singa ecurities (“PTKES T (Reg. No.0107 nge Commission xchange Comm ecuritiesCommis ecurities India Pr Exchange (Reg. ant Banker (Reg. nk KESL (Reg No osure of Inter sia: MKE and its ket maker or ma s, advisory and o pore: As of 23 Ap nd: MBKET may ch report. Therefo and/or employee Kong: KESHK m of the Hong Kon 3 April 2013, KES may have, within t of, any or all of th s in relation to th report. ERS t Certification o ews expressed in earch analyst’s c der red securities are erstanding and as (including, but no or reference issu sional advisers as t of this materia Defi Mayb BU HO SE App The appli as w Som Adex BV = CAGR Capex CY = DCF = DPS = EBIT EBITD EPS = EV = nition of Rati bank Kim Eng Re UY Total re OLD Total re ELL Total re licability of Rati respective analy icable to the stoc we do not actively me common t = Advertising Expen Book Value R = Compounded An x = Capital Expendit Calendar Year Discounted Cashfl Dividend Per Shar = Earnings Before In DA = EBIT, Deprecia Earnings Per Shar Enterprise Value 23 Apr ril 2013 ures s issued and dis holder of Capita apore by Mayban S”) (Reg. No. K 7545000314) is .Philippines:MA mission. Vietnam sion of Vietnam. rivate Limited (“K No. INF/INB 011 No. INM 00001 o 2377538) is au rest s Representatives y have assumed other services fo pril 2013, Mayba y have a busines ore, Investors sh es may from time may have financia ng Code of Cond SHK and the aut the last three ye he entities menti he investment co stributed in Mala al Markets and S nk KERPL (Co. KEP-251/PM/1992 a member of th ATRKES (Reg. N m: Maybank Ki .Hong Kong: KE KESI”) is a partic 1452431) and is 1708) US: Mayb uthorized and reg s may from time d an underwriting r or relating to th nk KERPL and th ss relationship w hould exercise th e to time have int al interests in rela duct for Persons thoring analyst d ears, served as m oned in this repo oncerned or a rel of Independence n this research re compensation wa e eport accurately as, is or will be, d e complex instru ssuming the risk ot limited to, spo uer. Any investor s to the risks invo al may be copied uments, typically ks involved. The ot and forward int r interested in pu olved in making s d, photocopied ings esearch uses the eturn is expected eturn is expected eturn is expected ings yst maintains a cks which form p y follow developm erms abbrev nditure nnual Growth Rate ture low re nterest And Tax ation And Amortisati re e following rating d to be above 15 d to be between - d to be below -15 coverage unive art of the covera ments in these co iated in this r on aysia by Mayban Services License Reg No 197201 2) is a member he Stock Exchan No.01-2004-0001 im Eng Securit ESHK (Central E cipant of the Nati regulated by Se bank KESUSA is gulated by the Fi nk Investment B e issued by the S 256N) which is of the Indonesi nge of Thailand 9) is a member ties Company Entity No AAD28 ional Stock Exch curities and Exc s a member of/ a nancial Services to time have pos g commitment or ose companies. he covering anal with or may poss eir own judgmen terests and/or un ation to an issue Licensed by or R o not have any in manager or co-m ort or may be pro lated investment sitions or be mat deal with such s yst do not have a ibly be an issue nt before making nderwriting comm er or a new listing Registered with th nterest in any co manager of a pub oviding, or have p t and may receiv reflect the analys directly or indirec st’s personal view tly, related to the involve a high d market value of terest and excha urchasing a struc such a purchase or duplicated in degree of risk and any structured s ange rates), time ctured product s e. n any form by a system: % in the next 12 15% to +15% in 5% in the next 12 months n the next 12 mon 2 months erse of stocks, t age universe. Re ompanies. report (where the list of which ports on compan e they appear Cashflow ue al Year cial Year End h-On-Month sset Value angible Asset nnum After Tax Before Tax FCF = Free C FV = Fair Val FY = Financia FYE = Financ MoM = Month NAV = Net As NTA = Net Ta P = Price P.A. = Per An PAT = Profit A PBT = Profit B Bank Berhad (15 Securities Comm regulated by the a Stock Exchan and is regulate r of the Philippin (“KEVS”) (Licen 84) is regulated b hange of India L hange Board of and is authorized s Authority. 938-H) which is mission in Malays e Monetary Autho nge and is regula ed by the Minist es Stock Exchan nse Number: 7 by the Securities imited (Reg No: India. KESI is al d and regulated terially interested securities and m Nam Long G a Participating sia. Singapore: ority of Singapor ated by the BAP try of Finance a nge and is regul 71/UBCK-GP) is s and Futures Co INF/INB 231452 lso registered wi by the FINRA – d in the securities ay also perform any interest in an r of derivative w any investment mitments in the se g applicant referr he Securities and ompanies recomm blic offering of se provided within th ve compensation Group Organization of This material is re. Indonesia: P PEPAM LK. Tha and the Securitie lated by the Sec s licensed unde ommission. India 2435) and the Bo th SEBI as Cate Broker ID 2786 s referred to here or seek to perfo Bursa issued PT Kim ailand: es and curities er the a: Kim ombay egory 1 1. UK: ein and may furth rm investment b commended in t securities /compa ET, its associate ned in this report d by the requirem mission. esearch report. urrently may ma months, significan provided from th ny companies re warrants on the s decisions. MBKE ecurities mention red to as defined d Futures Comm mended in this re ecurities for, or cu he previous 12 m for the services ws about any an e specific recomm nd all of the subje mendations or vie d are intended fo security may be a to maturity, mar hould conduct its her act anking his research repo anies mentioned s, directors, conn t. ments under Para ort. in the nected agraph ke a primary ma nt advice or inves he companies co ect securities or ews expressed in or sale only to so affected by chan ket conditions an s own analysis o any means or re nths arket in stment overed issuers; and no n the report. ophisticated inve ges in economic nd volatility and t of the product an edistributed with may be adjuste nies which are no r): part of estors who are ca c, financial and p the credit quality nd consult with it hout the prior co ed according to ot part of the cov PE PE PE Qo RO RO RO WA YoY YT apable political of any ts own onsent of MKE. needs. Investm verage do not car = Price Earnings G = PE Ratio To Gro R = PE Ratio Q = Quarter-On-Qua OA = Return On Asse OE = Return On Equi OSF = Return On Sha ACC = Weighted Ave Y = Year-On-Year D = Year-To-Date ment ratings are rry investment ra owth arter et ity areholders’ Funds erage Cost Of Capita only atings Page 24 al 4 of 25
  • 25. Nam Long G Group 23 April 2013 Page 25 5 of 25