Global Warming Delusions By DANIEL B. BOTKIN Global warming doesn't matter except to the extent that it will affect life -- ours and that of all living things on Earth. And contrary to the latest news, the evidence that global warming will have serious effects on life is thin. Most evidence suggests the contrary. Kilimanjaro's shrinking ice cap is not directly related to global warming. Case in point: This year's United Nations report on climate change and other documents say that 20%-30% of plant and animal species will be threatened with extinction in this century due to global warming -- a truly terrifying thought. Yet, during the past 2.5 million years, a period that scientists now know experienced climatic changes as rapid and as warm as modern climatological models suggest will happen to us, almost none of the millions of species on Earth went extinct. The exceptions were about 20 species of large mammals (the famous megafauna of the last ice age -- saber-tooth tigers, hairy mammoths and the like), which went extinct about 10,000 to 5,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age, and many dominant trees and shrubs of northwestern Europe. But elsewhere, including North America, few plant species went extinct, and few mammals. We're also warned that tropical diseases are going to spread, and that we can expect malaria and encephalitis epidemics. But scientific papers by Prof. Sarah Randolph of Oxford University show that temperature changes do not correlate well with changes in the distribution or frequency of these diseases; warming has not broadened their distribution and is highly unlikely to do so in the future, global warming or not. The key point here is that living things respond to many factors in addition to temperature and rainfall. In most cases, however, climate-modeling-based forecasts look primarily at temperature alone, or temperature and precipitation only. You might ask, "Isn't this enough to forecast changes in the distribution of species?" Ask a mockingbird. The New York Times recently published an answer to a query about why mockingbirds were becoming common in Manhattan. The expert answer was: food -- an exotic plant species that mockingbirds like to eat had spread to New York City. It was this, not temperature or rainfall, the expert said, that caused the change in mockingbird geography. You might think I must be one of those know-nothing naysayers who believes global warming is a liberal plot. On the contrary, I am a biologist and ecologist who has worked on global warming, and been concerned about its effects, since 1968. I've developed the computer model of forest growth that has been used widely to forecast possible effects of global warming on life -- I've used the model for that purpose myself, and to forecast likely effects on specific endangered species. I'm not a naysayer. I'm a scientist who believes in the scientific method and in what facts tell us. I have worked for 40 years to try to improve our enviro ...

1. Global Warming Delusions
By DANIEL B. BOTKIN
Global warming doesn't matter except to the extent that it will
affect life -- ours and that of all living things on Earth. And
contrary to the latest news, the evidence that global warming
will have serious effects on life is thin. Most evidence suggests
the contrary.
Kilimanjaro's shrinking ice cap is not directly related to global
warming.
Case in point: This year's United Nations report on climate
change and other documents say that 20%-30% of plant and
animal species will be threatened with extinction in this century
due to global warming -- a truly terrifying thought. Yet, during
the past 2.5 million years, a period that scientists now know
experienced climatic changes as rapid and as warm as modern
climatological models suggest will happen to us, almost none of
the millions of species on Earth went extinct. The exceptions
were about 20 species of large mammals (the famous megafauna
of the last ice age -- saber-tooth tigers, hairy mammoths and the
like), which went extinct about 10,000 to 5,000 years ago at the
end of the last ice age, and many dominant trees and shrubs of
northwestern Europe. But elsewhere, including North America,
few plant species went extinct, and few mammals.
We're also warned that tropical diseases are going to spread,
and that we can expect malaria and encephalitis epidemics. But
scientific papers by Prof. Sarah Randolph of Oxford University
show that temperature changes do not correlate well with
changes in the distribution or frequency of these diseases;
warming has not broadened their distribution and is highly
unlikely to do so in the future, global warming or not.
The key point here is that living things respond to many factors
in addition to temperature and rainfall. In most cases, however,
climate-modeling-based forecasts look primarily at temperature

2. alone, or temperature and precipitation only. You might ask,
"Isn't this enough to forecast changes in the distribution of
species?" Ask a mockingbird. The New York Times recently
published an answer to a query about why mockingbirds were
becoming common in Manhattan. The expert answer was: food -
- an exotic plant species that mockingbirds like to eat had
spread to New York City. It was this, not temperature or
rainfall, the expert said, that caused the change in mockingbird
geography.
You might think I must be one of those know-nothing naysayers
who believes global warming is a liberal plot. On the contrary, I
am a biologist and ecologist who has worked on global
warming, and been concerned about its effects, since 1968. I've
developed the computer model of forest growth that has been
used widely to forecast possible effects of global warming on
life -- I've used the model for that purpose myself, and to
forecast likely effects on specific endangered species.
I'm not a naysayer. I'm a scientist who believes in the scientific
method and in what facts tell us. I have worked for 40 years to
try to improve our environment and improve human life as well.
I believe we can do this only from a basis in reality, and that is
not what I see happening now. Instead, like fashions that took
hold in the past and are eloquently analyzed in the classic 19th
century book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the
Madness of Crowds," the popular imagination today appears to
have been captured by beliefs that have little scientific basis.
Some colleagues who share some of my doubts argue that the
only way to get our society to change is to frighten people with
the possibility of a catastrophe, and that therefore it is all right
and even necessary for scientists to exaggerate. They tell me
that my belief in open and honest assessment is naïve. "Wolves
deceive their prey, don't they?" one said to me recently.
Therefore, biologically, he said, we are justified in exaggerating
to get society to change.
The climate modelers who developed the computer programs
that are being used to forecast climate change used to readily

3. admit that the models were crude and not very realistic, but
were the best that could be done with available computers and
programming methods. They said our options were to either
believe those crude models or believe the opinions of
experienced, data-focused scientists. Having done a great deal
of computer modeling myself, I appreciated their
acknowledgment of the limits of their methods. But I hear no
such statements today. Oddly, the forecasts of computer models
have become our new reality, while facts such as the few
extinctions of the past 2.5 million years are pushed aside, as if
they were not our reality.
A recent article in the well-respected journal American Scientist
explained why the glacier on Mt. Kilimanjaro could not be
melting from global warming. Simply from an intellectual point
of view it was fascinating -- especially the author's Sherlock
Holmes approach to figuring out what was causing the glacier to
melt. That it couldn't be global warming directly (i.e., the result
of air around the glacier warming) was made clear by the fact
that the air temperature at the altitude of the glacier is below
freezing. This means that only direct radiant heat from sunlight
could be warming and melting the glacier. The author also
studied the shape of the glacier and deduced that its melting
pattern was consistent with radiant heat but not air temperature.
Although acknowledged by many scientists, the paper is scorned
by the true believers in global warming.
We are told that the melting of the arctic ice will be a disaster.
But during the famous medieval warming period -- A.D. 750 to
1230 or so -- the Vikings found the warmer northern climate to
their advantage. Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie addressed this in his
book "Times of Feast, Times of Famine: A History of Climate
Since the Year 1000," perhaps the greatest book about climate
change before the onset of modern concerns with global
warming. He wrote that Erik the Red "took advantage of a sea
relatively free of ice to sail due west from Iceland to reach
Greenland. . . . Two and a half centuries later, at the height of
the climatic and demographic fortunes of the northern settlers, a

4. bishopric of Greenland was founded at Gardar in 1126."
Ladurie pointed out that "it is reasonable to think of the Vikings
as unconsciously taking advantage of this [referring to the
warming of the Middle Ages] to colonize the most northern and
inclement of their conquests, Iceland and Greenland." Good
thing that Erik the Red didn't have Al Gore or his climatologists
as his advisers.
Should we therefore dismiss global warming? Of course not.
But we should make a realistic assessment, as rationally as
possible, about its cultural, economic and environmental
effects. As Erik the Red might have told you, not everything
due to a climatic warming is bad, nor is everything that is bad
due to a climatic warming.
We should approach the problem the way we decide whether to
buy insurance and take precautions against other catastrophes --
wildfires, hurricanes, earthquakes. And as I have written
elsewhere, many of the actions we would take to reduce
greenhouse-gas production and mitigate global-warming effects
are beneficial anyway, most particularly a movement away from
fossil fuels to alternative solar and wind energy.
My concern is that we may be moving away from an irrational
lack of concern about climate change to an equally irrational
panic about it.
Many of my colleagues ask, "What's the problem? Hasn't it been
a good thing to raise public concern?" The problem is that in
this panic we are going to spend our money unwisely, we will
take actions that are counterproductive, and we will fail to do
many of those things that will benefit the environment and
ourselves.
For example, right now the clearest threat to many species is
habitat destruction. Take the orangutans, for instance, one of
those charismatic species that people are often fascinated by
and concerned about. They are endangered because of
deforestation. In our fear of global warming, it would be sad if
we fail to find funds to purchase those forests before they are
destroyed, and thus let this species go extinct.

5. At the heart of the matter is how much faith we decide to put in
science -- even how much faith scientists put in science. Our
times have benefited from clear-thinking, science-based
rationality. I hope this prevails as we try to deal with our
changing climate.
Mr. Botkin, president of the Center for the Study of the
Environment and professor emeritus in the Department of
Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology at the University of
California, Santa Barbara, is the author of "Discordant
Harmonies: A New Ecology for the Twenty-First Century"
(Replica Books, 2001).
The time to act is now
The climate crisis and the need for leadership.
BY AL GORE
·
· It is now clear that we face a deepening global climate
crisis that requires us to act boldly, quickly and wisely. “Global
warming” is the name it was given a long time ago. But it
should be understood for what it is: a planetary emergency that
now threatens human civilization on multiple fronts. Stronger
hurricanes and typhoons represent only one of many new
dangers as we begin what someone has called “a nature hike
through the Book of Revelation.”
As I write, my heart is heavy due to the suffering the people of
the Gulf Coast have endured. In Florida, Alabama, Mississippi,
Louisiana and Texas, and particularly in New Orleans,
thousands have experienced losses beyond measure as our
nation and the world witnessed scenes many of us thought we
would never see in this great country. But unless we act
quickly, this suffering will be but a beginning.
The science is extremely clear: Global warming may not affect
the frequency of hurricanes, but it makes the average hurricane
stronger, magnifying its destructive power. In the years ahead,
there will be more storms like Katrina, unless we change
course. Indeed, we have had two more Category 5 storms since

6. Katrina — including Wilma, which before landfall was the
strongest hurricane ever measured in the Atlantic.
We know that hurricanes are heat engines that thrive on warm
water. We know that heat-trapping gases from our industrial
society are warming the oceans. We know that, in the past 30
years, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes globally has
almost doubled. It’s time to connect the dots:
Last year, the science textbooks had to be rewritten. They used
to say, “It’s impossible to have a hurricane in the South
Atlantic.” We had the first one last year, in Brazil. Japan also
set an all-time record for typhoons last year: 10. The previous
record was seven.
This summer, more than 200 cities in the United States broke
all-time heat records. Reno, Nev., set a new record with 10
consecutive days above 100 degrees. Tucson, Ariz., tied its all-
time record of 39 consecutive days above 100 degrees. New
Orleans — and the surrounding waters of the Gulf — also hit an
all-time high.
This summer, parts of India received record rainfall — 37
inches fell in Mumbai in 24 hours, killing more than 1,000
people.
The new extremes of wind and rain are part of a larger pattern
that also includes rapidly melting glaciers worldwide,
increasing desertification, a global extinction crisis, the
ravaging of ocean fisheries, and a growing range for disease
“vectors” like mosquitoes, ticks and many other carriers of
viruses and bacteria harmful to people.
All of these are symptoms of a deeper crisis: the “Category 5″
collision between our civilization — as we currently pursue it
— and the Earth’s environment.
Sixty years ago, Winston Churchill wrote about another kind of
gathering storm. When Neville Chamberlain tried to wish that
threat away with appeasement, Churchill said, “This is only the
beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first
foretaste, of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by
year — unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and

7. martial vigor, we rise again and take our stand for freedom.”
For more than 15 years, the international community has
conducted a massive program to assemble the most accurate
scientific assessment on global warming. Two thousand
scientists, in a hundred countries, have produced the most
elaborate, well-organized scientific collaboration in the history
of humankind and have reached a consensus as strong as it ever
gets in science. As Bill McKibben points out, there is no longer
any credible basis to doubt that the Earth’s atmosphere is
warming because of human activities. There is no longer any
credible basis to doubt that we face a string of terrible
catastrophes unless we prepare ourselves and deal with the
underlying causes of global warming.
Scientists around the world are sounding a clear and urgent
warning. Global warming is real, it is already under way and the
consequences are totally unacceptable.
Why is this happening? Because the relationship between
humankind and the Earth has been utterly transformed. To begin
with, we have quadrupled the population of our planet in the
past hundred years. And secondly, the power of the technologies
now at our disposal vastly magnifies the impact each individual
can have on the natural world. Multiply that by six and a half
billion people, and then stir into that toxic mixture a mind-set
and an attitude that say it’s OK to ignore scientific evidence —
that we don’t have to take responsibility for the future
consequences of present actions — and you get this violent and
destructive collision between our civilization and the Earth.
There are those who say that we can’t solve this problem — that
it’s too big or too complicated or beyond the capacity of
political systems to grasp.
To those who say this problem is too difficult, I say that we
have accepted and met such challenges in the past. We declared
our liberty, and then won it. We designed a country that
respected and safeguarded the freedom of individuals. We
abolished slavery. We gave women the right to vote. We took
on Jim Crow and segregation. We cured fearsome diseases,

8. landed on the moon, won two wars simultaneously — in the
Pacific and in Europe. We brought down communism, we
defeated apartheid. We have even solved a global environmental
crisis before: the hole in the stratospheric ozone layer.
So there should be no doubt that we can solve this crisis too.
We must seize the opportunities presented by renewable energy,
by conservation and efficiency, by some of the harder but
exceedingly important challenges such as carbon capture and
sequestration. The technologies to solve the global-warming
problem exist, if we have the determination and wisdom to use
them.
But there is no time to wait. In the 1930s, Winston Churchill
also wrote of those leaders who refused to acknowledge the
clear and present danger: “They go on in strange paradox,
decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant
for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent. The era
of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling
expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place, we are
entering a period of consequences.”
With Hurricane Katrina, the melting of the Arctic ice cap and
careless ecological mayhem, we, too, are entering a period of
consequences. This is a moral moment. This is not ultimately
about any scientific debate or political dialogue. Ultimately it is
about who we are as human beings. It is about our capacity to
transcend our own limitations.
The men and women honored as warriors and heroes have risen
to this new occasion. On the surface, they share little in
common: scientists, ministers, students, politicians, activists,
lawyers, celebrities, inventors, world leaders. But each of them
recognized the threat that climate change poses to the planet —
and responded by taking immediate action to stop it. Their
stories should inspire and encourage us to see with our hearts,
as well as our heads, the unprecedented response that is now
called for.
As these heroes demonstrate, we have everything we need to

9. face this urgent challenge. All it takes is political will. And in
our democracy, political will is a renewable resource.