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FICCI FRAMES 2009




                      Vijay Sinha
                    Vijay Sinha
                             -0-
GDP Growth




             -1-
Sectoral Growth


70


60

50

                                                               Agriculture
40
                                                               Industry
30
                                                               Services
20

10


 0
     2002-   2003-   2004-   2005-   2006-   2007-   2008-
      03      04      05      06      07      08     09(Till
                                                      Sep)



                                                                             -2-
POPULATION IN SOME COUNTRIES IS RAPIDLY AGEING
                                                      Problem Most Pronounced in the Developed World



       Median age of population in the OECD countries is rising ...                                 ...this will have several socio-economic implications
                                                                                                                        (select examples)
              Median age (year)
        (Average for OECD countries)
                                                                                                                         Shortage in workforce

                                                                                                                    Potential decline in growth rates

                                                                                                                   Increase in wage rates for workers

                                                                                                            Pressure on social security and pension
                                                                                                                           systems

                                                                                                          Increase in services to the older population




Source: Scarpetia and Blöndal; United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision
                                                                                                                                                        -3-
IN 2010-2030, LARGEST SHARE OF INDIA`S POPULATION WILL BE IN THE WORKING AGE
                                    GROUP
                                                   Resulting in a Favourable “Demographic Bulge”




                                                        China Demographic Profile (2020)                    France Demographic Profile (2025)
      India Demographic Profile (2020)

  Age group                                         Age group                                             Age group
    80+                                               80+                                                   80+
   75-79                                             75-79                                                 75-79
   70-74                                             70-74                                                 70-74
                                                                                                           65-69
   65-69                                             65-69
                                                                                                           60-64
   60-64                                             60-64
                                                                                                           55-59
   55-59                                             55-59
   50-54                                             50-54                                                 50-54
                                                                                                           45-49
   45-49                                             45-49
                                                                                                           40-44
   40-44                                             40-44
   35-39                                             35-39                                                 35-39
                                                                                                           30-34
   30-34                                             30-34
   25-29                                             25-29                                                 25-29
   20-24                                             20-24                                                 20-24
   15-19                                             15-19                                                 15-19
   10-14                                             10-14                                                 10-14
     5-9                                               5-9                                                   5-9
     0-4                                               0-4                                                   0-4

        60      40    20                                    60     40     20                                   3      2    1
        -60    -40   -20    0    20     40    60           -60    -40    -20      0     20     40   60         -3     -2   -1   0   1      2      3
                                       Mn people                                              Mn people                                   Mn people

              20 - 35 age group :                                20 - 35 age group :                                20 - 35 age group :
          325 mn people (~25 %)                             308 mn people (~21 %)                               11 mn people (~17 %)

                                                                                                                           Female              Male
Source: CSFB Report; UN Population Division
                                                                                                                                                  -4-
THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC MAP
                                                                                      Potential surplus population in working age group (2020)

                                                                   Germany -3 Mn
                                                                  UK
                                                                           -2 Mn
                                                                                                                       Russia
                                                                                                   Czech
                                                                                                  Republic                  -6
                                                                     0Mn
                                                                                            -1
                                                                                                                            Mn
                                                                                                     Turkey
                                                                                           Mn
                                                                   Ireland
                                                                                           Iraq    2Mn               China
                    -17Mn                                                                                                        -10
                                                                     -3 Mn
                                                        France
             US                                                                                                                                                     Japan
                                                                                             2Mn                                                         -9 Mn
                                                                                                                                 Mn
                                                                                                      Israel
                                                                                                                 Pakistan
                                                                                                          Iran                                  5Mn
                                                         Spain                                     0Mn
                                                                     -3 Mn         -2 Mn                           19
                                                                                                                                  7
                                                                                                         3Mn       Mn                                 Philippines
                                                                                                                                 Mn
                                                                              Italy                                    47         Bangladesh
                    5Mn                                                                4Mn
                                                                                                                       Mn
                                                                                              Egypt
               Mexico                                                                                                                              4Mn
                                                                                                                     India                                Vietnam
                                                                                                                                       1Mn
                                                                                                                            Malaysia

                                                                                                                                             5Mn
                                                 3Mn
                                                                                                                                    Indonesia
                                             Brazil
                                                                                                                                              -0.5
                                                                                                                                               Mn
                                                                                                                                        Australia




Note: Potential workforce surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15 – 59) to total population constant and under the assumption
       that this ratio needs to be broadly constant to support economic growth. Therefore, India will have 47 Million more people in the working age group/total
                 population by 2020 compared to today, while France will have a deficit of 3 Million people in the working age group compared to today.
                                                                   Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                                                                                                                            -5-
INDEPENDENT SOURCES CONFIRM INDIA IS BEST IN
 QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF PEOPLE FOR GLOBAL
                 SERVICES
        Surplus
                                                                                             India


                                                 Indonesia                   Mexico
                                                                                                       Philippines
                                Brazil
Projected                                               Malaysia                              Israel
workforce
                                                                                   Ireland
                                         Turkey
 in 2020
                                                                Russia
                                                 China



       Shortfall
                                                                                                                       High
                        Low
                                                         People strength
                                                       • Productivity/quality
                                                    • English language skills (1)
                                                              • Cost


   Note: Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam have not been represented for lack of reliable data on productivity and cost of service employees
                                 (1)     Over 50% of shortages expected from English speaking countries
                           Source: World Competitiveness Yearbook 2001, Britannica yearbook, Literature search;
                                                                                                                                              -6-
“We can measure a country or a city’s worldwide economic
   competitiveness based on what we call the “3Ts” of
  economic growth: Technology, Talent and Tolerance”
      Richard Florida- The Rise of the creative class
              Florida-




                                                        -7-
India & Animation –Moving
              forward Together
•   Growth in Outsourced Animation Work

•   Increase in Original Content Creation

•   Growing use of Computer animation & Visual
    effects in Television & Film Industry

•   Huge opportunity in Gaming & Mobile Content

•   Growing number of formats for
    exhibiting/exploiting animation

•   Growing Creative Entrepreneurs

•   Annual growth of 30% in the last 3 years (WSJ)

                                                     -8-
Discovering new source of talent


Sourcing talent from-


• Traditional painting families of Thanjavur
• Puppetry artists from Rajasthan
• Painters from Maharashtra & Bengal
• Sculptors from Mahabalipuram, Ramnagaram
•   & Chanapatna
• Artists from Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh & North eastern region
• Billboard painters from Chennai



                                                               -9-
Way Forward
•   Increasing social awareness for “Animation”

•   Encouraging trend - animation as a mainstream
    career

•   Growing Governmental support- Animation being
    considered for inclusion in the Maharashtra IT Policy
    as well as in other states

•   Enhanced Industry Academia Partnership

     -   Intern Learn Model

     -   Train The Trainers

•   Recognition from Industry bodies

•   Developing in-house resources thru’ structured
    training programme                                      - 10 -
“We have moved from the industrial age,
     through the information age,
         to the age of talent.”

Thomas Friedman - ‘The World is Flat’




                                          - 11 -
Thank You




            - 12 -

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The Great Indian Talent Bazaar

  • 1. FICCI FRAMES 2009 Vijay Sinha Vijay Sinha -0-
  • 3. Sectoral Growth 70 60 50 Agriculture 40 Industry 30 Services 20 10 0 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 03 04 05 06 07 08 09(Till Sep) -2-
  • 4. POPULATION IN SOME COUNTRIES IS RAPIDLY AGEING Problem Most Pronounced in the Developed World Median age of population in the OECD countries is rising ... ...this will have several socio-economic implications (select examples) Median age (year) (Average for OECD countries) Shortage in workforce Potential decline in growth rates Increase in wage rates for workers Pressure on social security and pension systems Increase in services to the older population Source: Scarpetia and Blöndal; United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision -3-
  • 5. IN 2010-2030, LARGEST SHARE OF INDIA`S POPULATION WILL BE IN THE WORKING AGE GROUP Resulting in a Favourable “Demographic Bulge” China Demographic Profile (2020) France Demographic Profile (2025) India Demographic Profile (2020) Age group Age group Age group 80+ 80+ 80+ 75-79 75-79 75-79 70-74 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 65-69 60-64 60-64 60-64 55-59 55-59 55-59 50-54 50-54 50-54 45-49 45-49 45-49 40-44 40-44 40-44 35-39 35-39 35-39 30-34 30-34 30-34 25-29 25-29 25-29 20-24 20-24 20-24 15-19 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 0-4 60 40 20 60 40 20 3 2 1 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Mn people Mn people Mn people 20 - 35 age group : 20 - 35 age group : 20 - 35 age group : 325 mn people (~25 %) 308 mn people (~21 %) 11 mn people (~17 %) Female Male Source: CSFB Report; UN Population Division -4-
  • 6. THE FUTURE DEMOGRAPHIC MAP Potential surplus population in working age group (2020) Germany -3 Mn UK -2 Mn Russia Czech Republic -6 0Mn -1 Mn Turkey Mn Ireland Iraq 2Mn China -17Mn -10 -3 Mn France US Japan 2Mn -9 Mn Mn Israel Pakistan Iran 5Mn Spain 0Mn -3 Mn -2 Mn 19 7 3Mn Mn Philippines Mn Italy 47 Bangladesh 5Mn 4Mn Mn Egypt Mexico 4Mn India Vietnam 1Mn Malaysia 5Mn 3Mn Indonesia Brazil -0.5 Mn Australia Note: Potential workforce surplus is calculated keeping the ratio of working population (age group 15 – 59) to total population constant and under the assumption that this ratio needs to be broadly constant to support economic growth. Therefore, India will have 47 Million more people in the working age group/total population by 2020 compared to today, while France will have a deficit of 3 Million people in the working age group compared to today. Source: U.S. Census Bureau -5-
  • 7. INDEPENDENT SOURCES CONFIRM INDIA IS BEST IN QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF PEOPLE FOR GLOBAL SERVICES Surplus India Indonesia Mexico Philippines Brazil Projected Malaysia Israel workforce Ireland Turkey in 2020 Russia China Shortfall High Low People strength • Productivity/quality • English language skills (1) • Cost Note: Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam have not been represented for lack of reliable data on productivity and cost of service employees (1) Over 50% of shortages expected from English speaking countries Source: World Competitiveness Yearbook 2001, Britannica yearbook, Literature search; -6-
  • 8. “We can measure a country or a city’s worldwide economic competitiveness based on what we call the “3Ts” of economic growth: Technology, Talent and Tolerance” Richard Florida- The Rise of the creative class Florida- -7-
  • 9. India & Animation –Moving forward Together • Growth in Outsourced Animation Work • Increase in Original Content Creation • Growing use of Computer animation & Visual effects in Television & Film Industry • Huge opportunity in Gaming & Mobile Content • Growing number of formats for exhibiting/exploiting animation • Growing Creative Entrepreneurs • Annual growth of 30% in the last 3 years (WSJ) -8-
  • 10. Discovering new source of talent Sourcing talent from- • Traditional painting families of Thanjavur • Puppetry artists from Rajasthan • Painters from Maharashtra & Bengal • Sculptors from Mahabalipuram, Ramnagaram • & Chanapatna • Artists from Orissa ,Andhra Pradesh & North eastern region • Billboard painters from Chennai -9-
  • 11. Way Forward • Increasing social awareness for “Animation” • Encouraging trend - animation as a mainstream career • Growing Governmental support- Animation being considered for inclusion in the Maharashtra IT Policy as well as in other states • Enhanced Industry Academia Partnership - Intern Learn Model - Train The Trainers • Recognition from Industry bodies • Developing in-house resources thru’ structured training programme - 10 -
  • 12. “We have moved from the industrial age, through the information age, to the age of talent.” Thomas Friedman - ‘The World is Flat’ - 11 -
  • 13. Thank You - 12 -