Last Day of Pandemic Covid-19 series

1. UK response to
COVID-19
A point of view (24 April 2020)

2. Contents
UK plans01
UK response02
Conclusions03
Numbers04
Political and Moral Dilemmas05

3. Last Words...
Political and Moral Dilemmas
Final Thoughts

4. Note on self interest (after Hayek)
Capitalism is based on the idea that allowing sellers (in
competition) and customers to trade in their own self-
interest is more efficient and effective than central planning.
Self-interest includes an individual’s interest in helping their
family, friends and community to thrive.
That principle underpins the evolution of social animals, of
which human society is an especially flexible and volatile
kind.
The challenge arises when you have to make choices
between who (individuals or groups) you help, and when.
Politics is the art of compromise; leaders make decisions by
trading off the pros and cons of different options.

5. Trade offs (cf. the
Trolley problem in
Wikipedia)
Anything of interest may be valued for different qualities, by
different stakeholders and different observers of those
stakeholders. And a value may change in retrospect.
The value of something crystalizes when you have to make
a choice between options.
E.g. the value of a trade solidifies when a seller and
customer agree a price.
And this virus crisis may force people make decisions that
compare:
1) The value of life to those old and young (does Sweden's
strategy favour the old?).
2) The value of saving life now and later
3) The value of individual freedom and civil rights against
public health
4) The value of global trade against national security
5) The value of reducing population against global
warming

6. 2. Saving life now and later
It has been estimated that 80,000 died of flu in the USA in 2017.
Each year, flu must kill tens of thousands in Russia and perhaps over 100,000 in China.
Imagine you are the president of the USA or China.
You know, when the flu seasons arrives, it will kill tens of thousands of people.
You have the power (Trump doesn't in reality) to prevent most of those deaths, by isolating every
household and stopping productive work/trade.
But you know that will later increase deaths from poverty/illness.
What do you do?

7. 3. Individual freedom
against public health
This virus crisis may lead to
countries/societies/cultures to be more authoritarian.
You will carry an identity card and a mobile device that
the government monitors.
The government may monitor (and sometime direct)
your individual movements.
And as in China's new social credit system, you will be
penalized if you waste money on non-essentials or
behave “badly”?
https://www.vox.com/the-
goods/2018/11/2/18057450/china-social-credit-score-
spend-frivolously-video-games

8. 5. Reducing
population growth
against global
warming
This brilliant 4 minute video shows the last 200 years
have seen astonishing improvements across the globe
in public health, wealth and education.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo
The video that follows it shows the impact of natural
disasters has been greatly reduced.
By contrast, our long-term ecological and
environmental problems are expressions of one
problem: over population.
The most effective tool we have for reducing
population growth is increased GDP per head
But that increases ecological challenges such as
global warming.

9. THANK YOU
#staysafe #stayconnected #staycalim