Preliminary results of research on the innovation gap between China and the United States in the electric vehicles industry.

1. Measuring the U.S.-China Innovation Gap
Electric Vehicles
衡量中美创新差距
电动汽车
A Joint Project of University of California San Diego and Tsinghua University
July 2014

2. Current Innovation Metrics
Mismeasure Actual Innovation
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 2
Innovation
Inputs &
Activities
Innovation
Outputs
Innovation
Ecosystem
• Innovation inputs and intermediate outputs commonly used to
describe end-level innovation
(R&D expenditures, patent output, number of STEM graduates, journal citations)
• Although China’s 2007 National Industrial Enterprise Innovation Survey
(全国工业企业创新调查) includes information on products and
processes

3. New Survey to Measure
U.S.-China Innovation
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 3
• For each industry, survey answers:
– What is the gap in innovation between the United
States and China?
– At what rate is Chinese innovation catching up to the
United States?
• Three methods:
– Industry-specific; Leading-edge firms; Experts sample
• Includes questions on innovation environment
– Domestic/international financing and talent, government
regulation, collaboration, geography

4. Survey Flow
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 4
Demographics
• Work experience
• Work location
• Educational level
• Organization type
• Job title
• Focus field
• Focus vehicle type
Innovation
Level
• Anchoring
vignettes
• 3 most leading-
edge domestic EV
teams
• 3 most leading-
edge global EV
teams
Innovation
Environment
• Innovation
obstacles
• Financing
• Technology choice
• Industrial policy
• Public services
• Geographic
importance
• Talent
• Collaboration
Innovation Gap
• Distance to current
technological frontier
• Distance to advancing
technological frontier

5. Correcting for Bias
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 5
• Concern that respondents may approach term
“innovation” with different concepts and
definitions
• Created scenarios depicting varying levels of
innovation to correct for bias
Self2
Team Green1
Self1
Team Blue1 Self2
Team Green2
Team Blue2
Highly Innovative
Not Innovative
Team Green2
Team Blue2
Highly Innovative
Not Innovative
Highly Innovative
Not Innovative
Source: Adapted from Gary King (2004)

6. Limitations and Potential
Mismeasurement
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 6
• Conceptual limits:
– Expanded innovation definition to include marketing and
organizational methods in addition to products and processes.
– Survey focuses on leading-edge innovation, capturing
the frontier but not measuring the whole industry.
– Innovation inherently a dynamic concept—likely to vary within
industry subsectors and not contained to a single industry.
• Survey Response risks:
– Survey response rate of ~15% in EV survey.
– Pretested question wording but experts may still differ
in interpretation (i.e. by subsectors).

7. Survey Demographics
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 7
• Web-based survey administered from May-June 2014.
• Received 114 U.S. responses; 13 in-depth interviews.
– 34% private sector; 32% academic; 34% gov’t, non-profit.
Survey
Results

8. U.S. Innovation Near Global Level
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 8
• 60% of experts rate U.S. leading teams high.
• General sense that EV innovation in “stalled
stage” due to market and price.
Survey
Results
Interview
Findings

9. Tesla Leads Domestically and Globally
• Tesla viewed widely
as global innovation
leader.
– Packaging and
marketing innovation
widely acknowledged.
– Divergent views on
technological
innovation – use of
small cell (essentially
commodity) batteries.
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 9
Survey
Results
Interview
Findings

10. Product Innovation Critical to EV Progress
• All types of innovation important to EV
progress, but recognition that product
innovation most central.
9 July 2013 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 10
Survey
Results

11. Obstacles to EV Innovation
• Technology cost viewed as largest barrier.
Uncertainty on where solution will come from.
• Charging infrastructure essential to increase
mobility and to raise consumer awareness.
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 11
Survey
Results
Interview
Findings

12. Gov’t Policy: short-sighted, inconsistent
• Gov’t policy crucial for
EV innovation.
• But strong view that
current policies
misaligned.
• Incentives too short-
term; fail to provide
time to reach
economies of scale.
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 12
Survey
Results
Interview
Findings

13. Innovation Ecosystem: The Missing Link
• No large-scale battery manufacturing in U.S.,
leading to “disconnect between investment
and outcome.”
• Value of national lab, university research, and
DOE investments widely acknowledged, but
no current avenue for commercialization.
• Tesla pursuing proposed “gigafactory,” but
policy needs to be better designed to draw
manufacturing to North America.
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 13
Interview
Findings

14. Five Years for China’s Catch-up
• Average 2.9 years to the current frontier.
• Minimum average 5.0 years to advancing frontier.
9 July 2013 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 14
Survey
Results

15. U.S. Expert View of China
• Partnering with U.S. Increased partnerships allow
China to increase innovation pace and skip an
iteration.
• Gov’t policy. China’s ability to establish national
plans and stable policy gives China advantage
over U.S. innovators.
• Market size. China’s domestic market will enable
it to achieve economies of scale quickly.
• Drivers. Pollution levels spurring large gov’t push
for zero-emission vehicles.
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 15
Interview
Findings

16. Summary
• EV innovation ecosystem in U.S. characterized
by strong gov’t-industry-university ties.
• Major obstacles in reaching economies of
scale causing stalled stage in innovation; U.S.
battery manufacturing capability needed.
• China’s eventual catch-up to U.S. innovation
levels seen as result of China’s strengths and
U.S. slow-down.
July 2014 UCSD-Tsinghua Survey Report 16

17. For additional results and analysis, please visit:
http://igcc.ucsd.edu/USChinaSurvey
For questions, please contact Eric Anderson:
eanderson@ucsd.edu