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TORONTO CMA
CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT
   MARKET OVERVIEW




               we’ve got the answers
Toronto’s Condominium Apartment
   Rental Market Remains Strong

• 49% Quarterly Increase in Activity on MLS in Q2-2012.
• Index Rents up 3.5% Annually to $2.26 psf in the Toronto
  CMA overall.
• Lease-to-Listings Ratio of 78% - Extremely Strong
  Demand.
• Average Suite took 19 Days to Lease in the Second
  Quarter, compared to 24 in Q1-2012.
Toronto CMA Rental Markets

  Condominium Rental                                 Purpose-Built Rental
          Market                                         Apartments
      1,259 Projects
      223,000 Units                                      307,000 Units
 Estimated rental – 25%
          56,000
  $1,777 per month avg       64% larger rents
                                                    $1,086 per month avg
          786 sf
         $2.26 psf
   3,000 - 4,000 rental
transactions on MLS per
          Quarter


             Source: UrbanRental, Toronto Real Estate Board, CMHC
Approximately 14,000 Condo Rental Transactions
 through MLS in 2011, 7,500 in First Half of 2012

                                     Figure 2
              Condominium Rental Transactions and Index Rent by Quarter
                        Toronto CMA : Q2-2011 to Q2-2012
 6,000                                                                                  $2.30
                         $2.24                                                 $2.26
                                                                 $2.23                  $2.25
                                             $2.21
         $2.18
                                                                                        $2.20
 4,000
                                                                                                4,500 transactions
                                                                                        $2.15
                                                                                                in Q2-12 - up 49%
                                                                                        $2.10
                                                                                                quarterly and 18%
                                                                                        $2.05
 2,000                                                                                              annually.
                                                                                        $2.00

                                                                                        $1.95
         3,750           4,378              2,902                2,984         4,439
    0                                                                                   $1.90
          Q2-11




                           Q3-11




                                               Q4-11




                                                                   Q1-12




                                                                                Q2-12
                          Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Demand for Condo Rental Units is Very Strong with
 78% Lease-to-Listings Ratio, Not Translating into
          Big Increase in Index Rents

                                         Figure 3
            Annual Index Rent Appreciation and Lease-to-Listings Ratio by Quarter
                            Toronto CMA : Q2-2011 to Q2-2012
       8%                                                                                   90%
                             79.4%                                                77.5%
                                                                                            80%
       7%
              63.4%                              64.8%               66.3%                  70%
       6%                                                                                   60%
                                                                                            50%
       5%
                                                                                            40%
       4%                                                                                   30%
                                                                                            20%
       3%
                                                                                            10%
             5.5%            6.9%                5.9%                5.9%         3.5%
       2%                                                                                   0%
              Q2-11




                              Q3-11




                                                   Q4-11




                                                                       Q1-12




                                                                                    Q2-12
                                      Annual Appreciation               LLR
                             Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Annual Index Rent Growth is Typically Lower than
   Appreciation in New and Resale Markets

             Annual Index Price and Index Rent Growth in New, Resale & Rental
                             Condominum Apartment Markets
                           Toronto CMA : Q2-11, Q1-12 & Q2-12
      9.0%
      8.0%
                                        8.1%
      7.0%   7.5%
                                                                       7.2%
      6.0%
      5.0%           5.7% 5.5%                            5.9%
      4.0%
                                                                                4.0%
      3.0%                                       3.7%                                  3.5%
      2.0%
      1.0%
                    Q2-2011                    Q1-2012                         Q2-2012

                                  New         Resale          Rental

                          Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Monthly Carrying Costs for Average New and Resale
  Condominiums Versus Average Condo Rents
– 20% Down, 1% Taxes, Average monthly maintenance, 3% Interest rate


           Monthly Carrying Costs per Month for Average New & Resale Unit
                plus Average Condominium Rental Rates by Quarter                                Q2-2012
                          Toronto CMA: 2011 to 2012 YTD
  $2,000
  $1,950                                                                            $1,932     New: 751 sf,
  $1,900                                                                                        $395,000,
  $1,850   $1,814                                                                    $1,865     $0.49 psf
  $1,800
  $1,750
           $1,765                                                                   $1,777
  $1,700                                                                                      Resale: 910 sf,
  $1,650    $1,686                                                                              $370,000,
  $1,600
                                                                                                $0.58 psf
              Q1-11




                          Q2-11




                                          Q3-11




                                                           Q4-11




                                                                            Q1-12




                                                                                      Q2-12
                           New                    Resale              Rental                  Rental: 786 sf
                       Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Monthly Carrying Costs for Constant Sized New,
        Resale and Rental Condominiums
– 20% Down, 1% Taxes, Average monthly maintenance, 3% Interest rate


           Monthly Carring Costs per Month for an 800 sf New & Resale Unit plus
              Average Rent for 800 sf Condominium Apartment by Quarter                                  Q2-2012
                            Toronto CMA: 2011 to 2012 YTD
  $2,100                                                                                                 800 sf
                                                                                         $1,985
  $2,000

  $1,900   $1,825                                                                                     New: $525 psf,
                                                                                           $1,808
  $1,800                                                                                            $420,000, $0.49 psf
           $1,685                                                                          $1,699
  $1,700

  $1,600                                                                                             Resale: $407 psf,
           $1,607
  $1,500                                                                                            $326,000, $0.58 psf
               Q1-11




                            Q2-11




                                             Q3-11




                                                              Q4-11




                                                                                 Q1-12




                                                                                           Q2-12
                              New                    Resale                   Rental                 Rental: $2.26 psf
                         Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Plenty of Supply to Enter Rental Condominium
          Market over Next Two Years

• Approximately 50,000 completions scheduled for 2013
  and 2014.
• Up to 50% of these suites could enter the rental pool, or
  25,000 units.
• This would represent a 45% increase in the condominium
  rental market in the CMA – from 56,000 to 81,000.
• Can all these units be absorbed? If rents are not going up
  significantly when in with short supply, what will occur
  with excess supply?
For information about Urbanation’s
Condominium Market Survey, UrbanRental
 Report or our Consulting Services please
                  contact:

                Ben Myers
           416-922-2200 ext.243
            Ben@urbanation.ca

        www.urbanation.ca
www.twitter.com/urbanation

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Toronto rental market

  • 1. TORONTO CMA CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW we’ve got the answers
  • 2. Toronto’s Condominium Apartment Rental Market Remains Strong • 49% Quarterly Increase in Activity on MLS in Q2-2012. • Index Rents up 3.5% Annually to $2.26 psf in the Toronto CMA overall. • Lease-to-Listings Ratio of 78% - Extremely Strong Demand. • Average Suite took 19 Days to Lease in the Second Quarter, compared to 24 in Q1-2012.
  • 3. Toronto CMA Rental Markets Condominium Rental Purpose-Built Rental Market Apartments 1,259 Projects 223,000 Units 307,000 Units Estimated rental – 25% 56,000 $1,777 per month avg 64% larger rents $1,086 per month avg 786 sf $2.26 psf 3,000 - 4,000 rental transactions on MLS per Quarter Source: UrbanRental, Toronto Real Estate Board, CMHC
  • 4. Approximately 14,000 Condo Rental Transactions through MLS in 2011, 7,500 in First Half of 2012 Figure 2 Condominium Rental Transactions and Index Rent by Quarter Toronto CMA : Q2-2011 to Q2-2012 6,000 $2.30 $2.24 $2.26 $2.23 $2.25 $2.21 $2.18 $2.20 4,000 4,500 transactions $2.15 in Q2-12 - up 49% $2.10 quarterly and 18% $2.05 2,000 annually. $2.00 $1.95 3,750 4,378 2,902 2,984 4,439 0 $1.90 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
  • 5. Demand for Condo Rental Units is Very Strong with 78% Lease-to-Listings Ratio, Not Translating into Big Increase in Index Rents Figure 3 Annual Index Rent Appreciation and Lease-to-Listings Ratio by Quarter Toronto CMA : Q2-2011 to Q2-2012 8% 90% 79.4% 77.5% 80% 7% 63.4% 64.8% 66.3% 70% 6% 60% 50% 5% 40% 4% 30% 20% 3% 10% 5.5% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 3.5% 2% 0% Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Annual Appreciation LLR Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
  • 6. Annual Index Rent Growth is Typically Lower than Appreciation in New and Resale Markets Annual Index Price and Index Rent Growth in New, Resale & Rental Condominum Apartment Markets Toronto CMA : Q2-11, Q1-12 & Q2-12 9.0% 8.0% 8.1% 7.0% 7.5% 7.2% 6.0% 5.0% 5.7% 5.5% 5.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% Q2-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 New Resale Rental Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
  • 7. Monthly Carrying Costs for Average New and Resale Condominiums Versus Average Condo Rents – 20% Down, 1% Taxes, Average monthly maintenance, 3% Interest rate Monthly Carrying Costs per Month for Average New & Resale Unit plus Average Condominium Rental Rates by Quarter Q2-2012 Toronto CMA: 2011 to 2012 YTD $2,000 $1,950 $1,932 New: 751 sf, $1,900 $395,000, $1,850 $1,814 $1,865 $0.49 psf $1,800 $1,750 $1,765 $1,777 $1,700 Resale: 910 sf, $1,650 $1,686 $370,000, $1,600 $0.58 psf Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 New Resale Rental Rental: 786 sf Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
  • 8. Monthly Carrying Costs for Constant Sized New, Resale and Rental Condominiums – 20% Down, 1% Taxes, Average monthly maintenance, 3% Interest rate Monthly Carring Costs per Month for an 800 sf New & Resale Unit plus Average Rent for 800 sf Condominium Apartment by Quarter Q2-2012 Toronto CMA: 2011 to 2012 YTD $2,100 800 sf $1,985 $2,000 $1,900 $1,825 New: $525 psf, $1,808 $1,800 $420,000, $0.49 psf $1,685 $1,699 $1,700 $1,600 Resale: $407 psf, $1,607 $1,500 $326,000, $0.58 psf Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 New Resale Rental Rental: $2.26 psf Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
  • 9. Plenty of Supply to Enter Rental Condominium Market over Next Two Years • Approximately 50,000 completions scheduled for 2013 and 2014. • Up to 50% of these suites could enter the rental pool, or 25,000 units. • This would represent a 45% increase in the condominium rental market in the CMA – from 56,000 to 81,000. • Can all these units be absorbed? If rents are not going up significantly when in with short supply, what will occur with excess supply?
  • 10. For information about Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey, UrbanRental Report or our Consulting Services please contact: Ben Myers 416-922-2200 ext.243 Ben@urbanation.ca www.urbanation.ca www.twitter.com/urbanation