1. “Is baar phir se Modi
sarkar?”
OR IS HIS RULE A DECEPTION OF CRONY
CAPITALISM
IN THE VEIL OF DEMOCRACY?
Insights by:
Tanvi Mittal (11810129)
Ayush Kapoor (11810053)
2. Motivation? Principally, the aim is to try to answer a burning question.
“What people think of Modi now?” Can the after-affects of
the so-called “Modi-wave” still be felt, or has it left behind a
dust-storm?
Mantra : “Let data guide us to light”
The analysis tracks topics discussed on social media
(Twitter & Reddit) and tries to understand the change in
sentiment over the years since Modiji came to power.
A deep dive analysis into “crony capitalism” using volatility
as measure uncovers a widely publicized notion about
Modi.
“Has modi shown favoritism to specific corporates?”
3.
4.
5. “Mitron, what’s the
sentiment like?”
“Two days after 50-year-old
Mohammad Akhlaq was killed in
Dadri following rumours that he
and his family were storing and
consuming BJP leaders from
Uttar Pradesh suggested that if
there was beef in the house the
victim was at fault.”
“It takes time. The
demonization will wipe
out black money kept in
cash which might have
been built over decades”
“I think I mistrust everyone
named Modi now. Lalit
Modi Narendra Modi and
now Nirav Modi.”
“ Atleast those poor
folks coming in delhi on
buses are getting paid
for shouting "NAHI"
when Modi says "Kya
AAP ka vikas hua hai?"
“People like Yogi
Adityanath are worse than
the hindu equivalent of
Zakir Naik; and yet they are
rewarded with getting to be
a CM of millions of people.”
Key takeaway:
Confidence on modi when note
ban was announced was at all
time high. Black Money and
churning out corruption struck
the right chords. But, its practical
implications leads to significant
drop in confidence thereafter as
visible in the graph beside.
7. Modi, messiah of the corporate?
Modi has been widely “accused” of dealing with Indian corporates with kid gloves, infact mending ways to
favour them.
Adani and Anil Ambani’s Reliance Defence have been in the crux of this debate.
Hypothesis: Modi government's actions have favourably affected Adani and Reliance.
Methodology: Compare volatility* of stocks of Adani and Reliance Naval during UPA regime and NDA
regime. Has volatility decreased? Increased? Implications?
Compare it with other competitors of Adani and Reliance Naval. Do they exhibit the same trend or do
Adani/Reliance Naval show any abnormality?
*Volatility is a measure of dispersion around the mean return of a security,
the higher the volatility, the riskier is the security
8. Adani Stock Volatility Study
Hence, the
hypothesis stands!
Historical stock prices source: Yahoo Finance
9. Ambani ( Reliance Naval) Volatility Study
Hence, the
hypothesis stands
negated!
Historical stock prices source: Yahoo Finance
10. Limitations
1. To create wordclouds, BagOfWords approach is not used , instead NLTK’s POS tagger is used to get only the proper nouns in
the corpus as the most important words that were talked about.
2. An assumption that is omnipresent is that the data/comments/views are expressed by people who are well-informed and this
sample represents the population of the nation, which is not true.
3. NLTK’s POS tagger uses Capital letters to tag proper nouns and not actual NLP to figure out proper nouns in a sentence. This is
an observation of how NLTK’s POS tagger works internally.
4. Sarcasm is not captured . For eg : “Modi has really made India into a superpower. Yeah right!”
5. Univariate Analysis for crony capitalism is undertaken. To completely decipher the effects of modi’s governance, multiple other
parameters like PNL statements, Balance Sheets, dividends etc of each of the companies could have also been explored to
arrive at a more concrete judgement.
Future Work
1. Sentiment analysis can be extrapolated to specific topics like “GST”,
“Surgical strikes”,”Triple Talaq” to holistically arrive at a conclusion.
2. More in-depth analysis for un-covering the crony nexus can be done.
