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Investment Opportunity For Rosneft
Management Presentation May 21, 2016
Disclaimer
3
Exclusive opportunity to acquire a 100% interest in Eurasia Drilling Company Limited (EDC)
This document has been prepared solely for information purposes by M&A – corporate finance department, for the use of the management and shareholders
of OJSC "Rosneft Oil Company" (“Investor” or “Rosneft”) for the purpose of analyzing the investment opportunity in the Russian oilfield services market and
without any commitment or responsibility on our part.
The Investor is invited to consider acquisition of the largest provider of oil and gas drilling services in Russia - Eurasia Drilling Company Limited,
(“Company” or “EDC”). Information in this presentation reflects external business environment conditions and opinion only as of the date of this presentation.
This presentation should not be considered complete unless presented during a final meeting between the Investor and M&A – corporate finance department. This
presentation may not be disclosed to any third parties or used for any purposes other than stated above without prior written consent of M&A – corporate finance
department.
Hereby we state Company’ s Valuation Date: 1/12/2015 (after Company’s delisting 17/11/2015)
Confidential
Company profile 5
Deal rationale 7
Valuation
I. DCF 9
II. Precedent Transaction Valuation 11
III .Comparable Companies Valuation 12
Valuation Summary 13
Executive summary
Synergy effects 15
Exclusive Investment Proposal 16
Appendix
Purchase price calculation 18
EDC – Standalone DCF Valuation 19
EDC – Standalone Income Statement 20
EDC – Standalone Cash Flow Statement 21
EDC – Standalone Balance Sheet 22
EDC – Standalone Debt Profile 23
Rosneft – Standalone Income Statement 24
Rosneft – Standalone Cash Flow Statement 25
Rosneft – Standalone Balance Sheet 26
Post Merger Income Statement 27
Post Merger Standalone Cash Flow Statement 28
Post Merger Standalone Balance Sheet 29
Contents
4
Company profile
• The largest drilling company in Russia
27% of Russian drilling footage in 2014
• The largest independent Russian OFS provider
~13% of Russian OFS market share in 2014
• EDCs OFS market segments
onshore and offshore drilling, onshore integrated well construction and
workover services
• 3 Oil&Gas majors in client portfolio
Lukoil (63%), Gazprom Neft (22%), Rosneft (7%)
• Current credit rating
Fitch: BB (Pos). S&P: BB+ (Neg).
Description Key Russian* assets
In USD mn
Sources: Company data, Team estimates, VTB Capital
Financial metrics Shareholder structure
(*) Foreign assets of EDC contribute a negligible part of Company’s revenue and EBITDA. 5
261 rigs
drilling and sidetracking
Up-to-date equipment
over 40% of rigs
are less than 10 years old
Geographical
presence
in all major oil
production regions
2767
3237
3478
2975
1 992
2 134
2 283 2 323
400
620 580 530
344 215 239 227
22%
24% 27% 28% 25% 26% 27% 26%
2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenue CAPEX EBITDA margin
Before delisting After delisting (estimation)
30%
22%15%
32%
33%
45%
22%
A. Putilov
Others
Free-float A. Djaparidze
Others
After delisting, two major investors increased
their share together from 55% to 78%.
DEAL RATIONALE
Rosneft actively develops its own in-house services,
Structure of development drilling (mn m)
EDC has the potential to cover most of Rosneft’s need in drilling,
Total meters drilled (mn m)
Key benefits for Rosneft
Sources: Rosneft and EDC data, Team analysis
2 2.35
2.8
2014A 2015F 2016F
Current in-house service In-house service expansion
Third-party contractors Total in-house service
2.0
2.5
3.7
4.5
4.9 5.0
6.0
5.1
3.3
4.0 3.8
4.1
4.8
6.1
6.3
5.7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rosneft's demand EDC's supply
Great opportunity for in-house drilling development
2. Performance improvement
7
1. Cost optimization
3. Other revenue enhancement
Development of internal services is an increasing trend among
Russian oil companies (incl. Tatneft, Slavneft and SurgutNefteGaz).
(*) Over 25% of EDC’s drilling and sidetrack rigs are 5 years old or less, over 40% - less than 10 years old.
38% 27% 31%
15% 35% 36%
46% 37% 33%
short-term
target share
= 75-80%
5.2 mn m 8.6 mn m 9.0 mn m
2016F
Drilled by in-house unit
9.0
5.1
• Reduce costs by relying on in-house service, which is 5-9% lower
compared to the cost of services provided by third-party contractors.
• Obtain market price independence. – Rosneft plans to increase its in-
house drilling services share to 80% in the near future.
• Increase its drilling efficiency after acquiring one of the youngest* and
technologically advanced rig fleets in the industry.
• Increase profit by providing drilling service to peer companies until the end
of framework agreements (contract with Lukoil ends in 2015, with Gazprom
Neft – 2016).
• Increase its revenue with offshore drilling in the Caspian Sea.
54%
63% 67%
VALUATION
29%
24%
5%
5%
3%
34%
EDC
Surgut NG
SSK
RU-Energy
Eriell
All others
27%
21%
6%4%
4%
38%
Total crude oil output in Russia will grow and brownfield crude oil
production in Western Siberia will remain stable in the mid-term outlook
After the decrease in 2014 drilling footage & share of horizontal drilling will
grow reflecting the depletion of brownfields and growth of crude oil output
On the basis of the market outlook we derive the following key
assumptions for our revenue forecast used for building the DCF model
• Total drilling footage in Russia will constantly grow (CAGR = 5.82%, till 2021).
• EDC market share will decline 1 p.p. per year due to in-house development
trend in the oilfield services industry.
• Share of horizontal drilling (more profitable service than vertical drilling) will
increase from 27% in 2014 to 32% in 2020 and EDC is capable of providing
such services.
• However, premium for horizontal drilling will decline (in 2021 it will be almost
zero) comparable to vertical drilling.
In spite of the growing competition the Company maintains its
leading position by meters drilled
2013 2014
10,2
12,9
15,1 16,2 15,4
18,1
19,5
21,1 21,9
20,6
22,6 23,1
25,0
26,6
28,8
30,6
11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 13% 15%
23%
27% 27% 27% 28% 29% 31% 32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
Russian onshore drilling market size (millions of meters drilled)
Share of horizontal meters
333 338 339 333 325 320 319 317 314 313 308 302 305 299 298 299
97 100 101 103 106 111 114 116 118 118 120 119 118 117 115 114
23 24 24 27 31 30 28 27 27 28 29 32 32 34 35 36
20 27 35 41 44 47 48 50 52 54 5617 18 27 24 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 29 27 33 35 32
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
Western Siberia Volga-Urals Timan-Pechora Eastern Siberia Others
I. DCF Valuation: EDC Standalone Revenue forecasts
Sources: Renergy, Deloitte, EDC data 9
Crude oil
output, mn t
Confidential
2 975
1 988
2 127
(179)
(648)
(160)
0
(30)
82 33 54
Revenue'14 Δ Onshore
footage
Δ Revenue/
m onshore
Δ Other
onshore
services
Δ Offshore
services
Revenue'15 Δ Onshore
footage
Δ Revenue/
m onshore
Δ Other
onshore
services
Δ Offshore
services
Revenue'16
Onshore drilling
Onshore drilling
(193)
131
I. DCF Valuation: Revenue and FCFF projections
Sources: Team analysis
• Slump in 2015 is forecasted due to significant
ruble depreciation, and therefore devaluation
of prices for onshore drilling - key Company’s
services.
• Offshore prices are denominated in dollars and
unaffected by FX rate fluctuations.
• From 2015 till the end of projection period
revenue is constantly growing due to steadily
increasing prices for services against flat
drilling activity (CAGR = 3.1%, till 2021).
• Rapid decrease of cash inflows due to
revenue slump in 2015 is counterbalanced by
much lower cash outflows for CapEx.
• CapEx is much lower in forecast years than in
2011-2014 because of (1) finish of payments
for the fifth jack-up rig in 2014, (2) termination
of rig modernization program in 2016. Thus,
we forecast that EDC will reduce its CapEx to
maintenance levels in the forecast period.
Revenue
10
In USD mn
Free cash flow to the Firm
In USD mn
138
221
251
90
65
129
(164)
FCFF'14 Δ NOPAT Δ CapEx Δ Depreciation
and WC
FCFF'15 Δ NOPAT Δ CapEx Δ Depreciation
and WC
FCFF'16
Ruble depreciation
significantly pressed
prices for services.
∆ Average
price
∆ Average
price
From 2016 to 2021
Revenues and Cash Flows
are expected to be flat.
∆ Depreciation
and NWC
∆ Depreciation
and NWC
Confidential
M&A closed deals of global Oil and Gas Drilling and Gas Field Service companies (OFS)
Purchase Premium ~ 20%
Sources: Capital IQ, Mergermarket, Bloomberg
• Lack of comparable historic transactions for oil and gas service companies
in Russia.
Considerations
• Value of the company was calculated by applying EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue
ratios from previous transactions.
• This valuation method includes 20% premium historically paid for control in oil
and gas drilling industry.
II. Transaction Multiples / Precedent Transaction Valuation
11
M&A
Closed
Date
Target/Issuer Country Buyers/Investors
Transaction
Value,
in mln $
Percent
Sought (%)
EV
in mln $
EV/
Revenue
EV/
EBITDA
Target Stock
Premium
1 Day Prior
16.01.2015 C.A.T. Oil Austria Maurice Dijols - 50.3 892.8 2.1x 7.5x 3.8%
23.05.2014 Integra Group Russsia Integra's management team 253.8 70.0 220.1 - 5.6x 33.3%
04.03.2014 Kreuz Holdings Singapore Headland Capital Partners 381.0 100.0 369.9 1.5x 5.2x 4.6%
12.02.2014 Mermaid Maritime Thailand Thoresen Thai Agencies Public 53.8 9.23 543.4 1.9x 8.9x 3.0%
22.04.2013 IROC Energy Services Corp. Canada Western Energy Services 186.9 100.0 186.8 1.9x 6.5x 33.8%
05.11.2012 Union Drilling USA Sidewinder Drilling 243.7 100.0 243.6 0.9x 4.9x 6.0%
01.10.2012 Pure Energy Services Canada FMC Technologies 313.9 100.0 310.0 1.1x 5.4x 40.1%
07.02.2012 Complete Production Services USA Superior Energy Services 3 309.7 100.0 3 101.4 1.5x 5.6x 61.4%
03.10.2011 Transocean Norway Drilling Norway Transocean Services 3 435.6 100.0 3 344.1 8.5x 14.8x 98.5%
03.06.2011 Bronco Drilling Co. USA Chesapeake Energy Corporation 342.8 100.0 328.0 2.4x 12.3x 5.8%
Max 8.5x 14.8x 99%
75th Percentile: 2.1x 8.5x 39%
Median 1.9x 6.0x 20%
25th Percentile: 1.5x 5.4x 5%
Min 0.9x 4.9x 3%
Confidential
Description
Trading multiple valuation of global Oil & Gas onshore/offshore drilling-service companies (OFS)
Sources: Bloomberg, 01.12.2015
• Lack of public oil and gas service companies with similar characteristics and geography of assets.
• Comparable analysis with international peers with similar operating profile.
• Comparable companies analysis involves the comparison of operating metrics and valuation multiples for public companies in a peer group to those of a target
company.
• In our analysis, indicative value of the company was calculated by applying EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue ratios of listed comparable companies.
Description
Considerations
III. Trading Multiples / Comparable Companies Valuation
12
Company Country Market cap
EV,
in mln $
Revenue,
in mln $
EBITDA,
in mln $
EBITDA,
margin
EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA
2015 2015 2015 2015 2016E 2015 2016E
Baker Hughes USA 19 194 21 132 15 742 1 815 11.5% 1.3x 2.2x 11.6x 31.3x
Weatherford Switzerland 6 963 13 625 9 433 1 307 13.9% 1.4x 2.2x 10.4x 34.5x
Helmerich & Payne USA 5 093 5 933 2 568 1 072 41.7% 2.3x 4.2x 5.5x 16.3x
Transocean Switzerland 4 507 10 976 7 019 3 089 44.0% 1.6x 2.9x 3.6x 7.4x
Ensco Britain 3 622 6 933 4 063 2 075 51.1% 1.7x 2.4x 3.3x 5.0x
Saipem Spa-Unspon Italy 3 537 9 531 12 773 564 4.4% 0.7x 0.7x 16.9x -
Noble Corp Britain 2 553 7 165 3 071 1 681 54.7% 2.3x 3.3x 4.3x 6.5x
Nabors Industries USA 2 393 5 975 3 864 1 127 29.2% 1.5x 2.8x 5.3x 10.4x
Patterson-Uti Energy USA 2 219 3 248 1 891 582 30.8% 1.7x 3.6x 5.6x 16.5x
C.A.T. Oil Austria 337 402 358 99 27.6% 1.1x 0.7x 4.1x 2.8x
Max 54.7% 2.3x 4.2x 16.9x 34.5x
75th Percentile: 43.4% 1.7x 3.2x 9.2x 16.5x
Median 30.0% 1.6x 2.9x 5.4x 10.4x
25th Percentile: 17.3% 1.4x 2.2x 4.1x 6.5x
Min 4.4% 0.7x 0.7x 3.3x 2.8x
Confidential
Equity Value sensitivity to WACC and TGR
TGR
Valuation Summary: Football Field Valuation Chart
13
2 729
Equity Value, $ million
1 854
1 990
1 687
2 222
1 413
4 401
3 605
1 959
1 122
2 466
1 424
1 528
1 169
4 799
4 608
2 357
2 125
2 864
2 427
2 288
1 679
0 600 1 200 1 800 2 400 3 000 3 600 4 200 4 800 5 400 6 000
Exit Multiple
WACC: 12.4%-14.4%
Exit Multiple: 4.0x
IRR’19 . ~ 30%
Gordon Growth
WACC: 12.4%-14.4%
TGR: 3%
Implied EV/EBITDA - 5.9x
EV/EBITDA
EV/Revenue
International M&A (2011-2015)
Control Premium 20%
EV/EBITDA ‘15
EV/Revenue ’15
(International peers)
EV/EBITDA ‘16
EV/Revenue ‘16
1 854 15.4% 14.4% 13.4% 12.4% 11.4%
4.0% 1 512 1 758 2 056 2 425 2 895
3.5% 1 445 1 674 1 950 2 288 2 712
3.0% 1 383 1 598 1 854 2 165 2 551
2.5% 1 326 1 528 1 767 2 055 2 408
2.0% 1 273 1 463 1 687 1 955 2 280
Equity Value sensitivity to WACC and Exit Multiple
1 413 15.4% 14.4% 13.4% 12.4% 11.4%
5.0x 1 528 1 629 1 736 1 848 1 967
4.5x 1 382 1 475 1 574 1 679 1 789
4.0x 1 235 1 322 1 413 1 510 1 611
3.5x 1 089 1 169 1 252 1 340 1 433
3.0x 943 1 015 1 091 1 171 1 255
WACC
ExitMultiple
Sources: Company’s annual report, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, Bloomberg, 01.12.2015
Importance
DCF (Gordon Growth) 40%
DCF (Exit multiples) 40%
Trading multiples 10%
Transaction multiples 10%
Implied EBITDA'15 multiple 5.5x
EBITDA'15 501
EV 2 754
Net Debt 1 092
Fair Equity Value 1 662
3430
5239
6605
2613
1696
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
DCF method is the primary
valuation tool and our final Equity
Value ranges from $1.4 to $2.0
billion. Given net debt of ~ $1
billion.
I. Discounted
Cash Flow
II. Transaction
Multiple
III. Trading
Multiple
Implied Multiple’15Equity Valuation range 1 413 – 1 990, $ million
4.5x – 5.5x
5.2x – 6.7x
5.0x – 7.0x
1.8x – 2.0x
4.4x – 6.4x
1.5x – 1.7x
9.4x – 11.4x
2.8x – 3.0x
Market cap, historical
WACC
In USD mn
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Synergy effects
15Sources: Team analysis
FCFF Adjustments
SG&A
• Head office and marketing costs
reduction
CAPEX reduction
• As services are provided by in-house
drilling unit (major source of synergy)
Synergy effect - FCFF
Confidential
In USD mn
PV of projected synergies realized in forecast period = USD 738 mn
Revenue
• Loss of Revenue attributable
to third party
• Gains from enhanced flow rates
from new wells drilled by
Company – Impact of sales
of additional crude oil produced
Revenue & Cost Synergies
113
168 171
176 180
172
2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
The first year with
significant positive
synergies
We recommend the acquisition of EDC, as the deal promises significant synergistic effect for the Investor.
Exclusive Investment Proposal
Equity transaction value (adj. for control premium and illiquidity discount)
Equity value USD mn 1 662
Control premium % 20%
Illiquidity discount % (10%)
EQUITY TRANSACTION VALUE (100% stake) USD mn 1 828
Shares outstanding (after delisting) mn 101
Proposed price per share USD 12.55
Deal analysis 2016F 2017F
Rosneft EPS 0.72 0.75
Combo EPS 0.74 0.77
EPS accretion/dilution 2.4% 1.8%
16
Financing: 100% Cash Rosneft’
Cash available: USD 9 920 mn
(3Q 2015 IFRS)
Sources: Team analysis Confidential
I. Strategy II. Leadership III. Synergy
Key benefits of the transaction for Rosneft:
PV of projected synergies realized in forecast period = USD 738 mn
APPENDIX
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Purchase price calculation
18Confidential
Purchase price calculation
DCF (Perpetual growth model) 5.88x
DCF (Exit multiples) 5.00x
Trading multiples 5.42x
Transaction multiples 6.02x
Importance
DCF (Perpetual growth model) 40% <- DCF provides the most reliable and comprehensive estimate of share price
DCF (Exit multiples) 40%
Trading multiples 10%
Transaction multiples 10%
Implied EBITDA'15 multiple 5.5x
EBITDA'15 501
EV 2 754
Net debt 1 092
Equity value 1 662
Diluted shares outstanding (after delisting) 100 873 256
Share price 16.47
Control premium 20%
Liquidity discount (10%)
Final equity value 1 828
Share price 18.12
1 712
Diluted shares outstanding (before delisting) 145 665 352
Implied share price adjusted for repurchase 12.55 <- provided for comparison with delisting price
Last market price (price of delisting) 11.75
Price accretion 6.8%
EPS Deal analysis 2015F 2016F
Rosneft share price (29/11/15) 4.23
Rosneft EPS 0.84 0.72
EDC EPS 2.03 2.69
Combo EPS 0.86 0.74
EPS Accretion/dilution 2.2% 2.4%
Goodwill calculation
Equity purchase price 1 828
Target equity 1 186
Existing target goodwill (87)
FV of net assets purchase 1 099
Goodwill created 729
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
EDC – Standalone DCF Valuation
19Confidential
Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Category units 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TV
Cash flows
Fully taxed EBIT USD mn 251 316 343 347 357 367 352 3 474
Depreciation USD mn 188 161 176 180 191 201 212 2 088
Capex USD mn (344) (215) (239) (227) (236) (243) (248) (2 088)
(Inc) / Dec in Working Capital USD mn 126 (11) (11) (3) (7) (5) 2 23
FCFF (unlevered FCF) USD mn 221 251 269 297 304 320 317 3 497
TGR % 3%
Timing factor - mid-year convention x 0.042 0.583 1.583 2.583 3.583 4.583 5.583 5.583
First period adjustment x 0.083 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Discounted FCFF USD mn 18 233 220 214 194 180 157 1 730
EV Calculation
1.EV (Gordon Growth ) USD m 2 946
TGR 3%
implied EBITDA'15 multiple x 5.88x
projected USD m 1 216
TV USD m 1 730 59%
2. EV (Exit Multiple) USD m 2 506
Exit EV/EBITDA x 4.0x
TV USD m 1 286
implied EBITDA'15 multiple 5.00x
Parameters of DCF model
Date of discount 1.12.2015
Fiscal year end (1st) 31.12.2015
Share of year remaining 8.33%
WACC % 13.4%
Capital structure
share of debt % 30%
share of equity % 70%
US government bond (generic 30Y) % 2.8%<- geomean (Bloomberg)
Raw Beta % 2.0
Unlevered Beta % 1.2
Equity Risk premium % 6.6%<- Ibbotson 2013
Risk-Free-rate (Russia Eurobond) % 6.3%<- geomean (Bloomberg)
Country risk premium % 3.5%
Size premium % 1.1%<- Ibbotson 2013 Mid-Cap (3 000 m USD market cap)
Industry risk premium % 1.0%
Cost of Equity (in USD) % 16.4%
Cost of Debt % 8.2%<- EDC Eurobond YTM (01/12/15)
Tax Rate % 20.0%
Net debt USD mn 1 092<- incl. 2 new term loans taking for share repurchase
Equity value USD mn 1 854
Type Gordon growth Exit multiple
Valuation date 1.12.2015 1.12.2015
WACC 13.4% 13.4%
TGR 3% 3%
Exit EV/EBITDA 4.0x 4.0x
Value in the forecast period 1 216 1 216
Discounted TV 1 730 1289
Enterprise Value 2 946 2 506
Net Debt / (Cash) 1 092 1 092
Equity Value 1 854 1 413
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
EDC – Standalone Income Statement
20Confidential
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Income statement
Revenue USD mn 2 767 3 237 3 478 2 975 1 988 2 127 2 276 2 317 2 441 2 507 2 471
Cost of services USD mn (2 231) (2 523) (2 622) (2 252) (1 565) (1 616) (1 722) (1 756) (1 861) (1 911) (1 895)
Services of subcontractors USD mn (956) (1 000) (1 017) (905) (622) (648) (691) (710) (749) (765) (755)
Wages and salaries USD mn (536) (610) (670) (604) (386) (414) (446) (457) (477) (491) (485)
Materials USD mn (441) (567) (577) (394) (315) (336) (350) (349) (379) (387) (379)
Depreciation USD mn (213) (250) (266) (278) (188) (161) (176) (180) (191) (201) (212)
Other USD mn (84) (96) (92) (71) (55) (57) (59) (60) (65) (66) (65)
Gross Profit USD mn 536 714 856 723 423 511 554 561 580 596 576
SG&A USD mn (153) (174) (187) (168) (109) (116) (125) (128) (134) (138) (136)
EBIT USD mn 383 540 670 555 314 395 429 433 446 458 440
Depreсiation USD mn 213 250 266 278 188 161 176 180 191 201 212
EBITDA USD mn 603 790 940 834 501 556 605 614 637 660 652
Interest expense USD mn (52) (54) (58) (33) (59) (57) (48) (37) (30) (15) (1)
Interest income USD mn 11 12 17 27 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Other gains (losses) USD mn 25 5 (46) (13) - - - - - - -
Profit before tax USD mn 367 504 582 536 256 338 382 396 417 444 440
Income tax expense USD mn (84) (122) (150) (115) (51) (68) (76) (79) (83) (89) (88)
Net income USD mn 283 382 432 421 205 271 305 317 333 355 352
Shareholder information
Basic WASO # of shares 146 768 307 146 782 754 146 778 795 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352
Diluted WASO # of shares 146 768 307 147 658 014 146 778 795 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352
Basic EPS USD 1.93 2.60 2.94 2.89 1.41 1.86 2.10 2.18 2.29 2.44 2.42
Diluted EPS USD 1.93 2.59 2.94 2.89 1.41 1.86 2.10 2.18 2.29 2.44 2.42
Dividends USD mn 69 103 135 145 60 82 96 99 102 110 109
Dividend per share USD 0.47 0.70 0.92 0.99 0.41 0.57 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.75 0.75
Dividend payout ratio x 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
EDC – Standalone Cash Flow Statement
21
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income USD mn 283 382 432 421 205 271 305 317 333 355 352
Depreciation USD mn 213 250 266 278 188 161 176 180 191 201 212
(Inc) Dec in OWC USD mn (67) 83 (96) 126 (11) (11) (3) (7) (5) 2
(Inc) Dec in Advances USD mn (142) 185 54 - - - - - - -
(Inc) Dec in Deferred Income tax assets USD mn 1 0 (0) - - - - - - -
(Inc) Dec in Other non-current assets USD mn (6) 42 1 - - - - - - -
Inc (Dec) in Accrued pension liability USD mn 4 (3) (4) - - - - - - -
Inc (Dec) in Deferred income tax liabilities USD mn 43 15 (36) - - - - - - -
Inc (Dec) in Other non-current liabilities USD mn - 5 9 - - - - - - -
CFO USD mn 426 592 751 641 519 420 470 495 517 551 566
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchases of PP&E USD mn (418) (616) (553) (530) (344) (215) (239) (227) (236) (243) (248)
Other net proceeds for investing activities USD mn (431) (1) 57 (3) - - - - - - -
CFI USD mn (849) (618) (496) (534) (344) (215) (239) (227) (236) (243) (248)
Cash flows from financing activities
Share issuance (repurchase) USD mn (5) - (32) (57) (516) - - - - - -
Dividends paid USD mn (45) (69) (103) (280) (60) (82) (96) (99) (102) (110) (109)
Issuance of 2 term loans for repurchase USD mn - - - - 300 - - - - - -
Cash flow available for debt repayment USD mn (101) 123 135 168 179 199 208
(Repayment) Issuance of revolver USD mn - - - - - 106 2 61 (169) 395 (208)
(Repayment) Issuance of debt and liabilities for PP&E USD mn 398 (128) 384 (24) (126) (309) (137) (229) (4) (600) -
CFF USD mn 347 (197) 249 (361) (402) (285) (231) (268) (275) (315) (317)
Net cash flow USD mn (76) (223) 503 (254) (227) (80) - - 6 (6) -
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash USD mn (44) 18 (31) (197) - - - - - - -
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period USD mn 629 510 305 778 327 100 20 20 20 26 20
Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents USD mn (120) (204) 472 (451) (227) (80) - - 6 (6) -
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period USD mn 510 305 778 327 100 20 20 20 26 20 20
Confidential
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
EDC – Standalone Balance Sheet
22
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents USD mn 510 305 778 327 100 20 20 20 26 20 20
Accounts receivable. net USD mn 379 529 530 359 276 296 316 322 339 349 344
Inventories USD mn 191 213 213 140 120 126 134 137 145 149 146
Taxes receivable USD mn 33 27 46 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Deferred income tax assets USD mn 4 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Other current assets USD mn 43 14 13 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Total current assets USD mn 1 159 1 100 1 591 858 527 474 503 511 542 549 542
Non-current assets
PP&E USD mn 1 153 1 492 1 918 1 687 1 844 1 898 1 961 2 008 2 053 2 094 2 131
Advances given for PP&E USD mn 133 276 90 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Goodwill USD mn 105 108 105 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87
Deferred income tax assets USD mn 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Other non-current assets USD mn 51 57 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Total non-current assets USD mn 1 445 1 935 2 131 1 828 1 984 2 038 2 101 2 148 2 193 2 235 2 272
Total assets USD mn 2 604 3 035 3 722 2 686 2 512 2 512 2 604 2 659 2 736 2 784 2 813
Liabilities and shareholder's equity
Current liabilities
Revolver USD mn - - - - - 106 108 169 - 395 187
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities USD mn 407 465 539 241 265 279 297 303 321 328 323
Advances received USD mn 4 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Taxes payable USD mn 69 90 114 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
Deferred income tax liabilities USD mn 5 6 12 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Total current liabilities USD mn 486 564 666 287 310 431 451 518 367 770 557
Non-current liabilities
Debt (excl. revolver) and long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 753 700 1 114 1 119 1 287 977 837 604 600 - -
Accrued pension liability USD mn 11 16 12 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Deferred income tax liabilities USD mn 49 93 108 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71
Other non-current liabilities USD mn - - 5 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Total non-current liabilities USD mn 814 808 1 239 1 212 1 380 1 070 930 697 693 93 93
Shareholders' equity
Common stock USD mn 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469
Treasury stock. at cost USD mn (2.2) (1.7) (2.0) (58.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6)
Additional paid-in capital USD mn 680 684 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653
Retained earnings USD mn 793 1 072 1 369 1 645 1 790 1 979 2 188 2 406 2 637 2 883 3 125
Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income USD mn (168) (94) (206) (1 055) (1 049) (1 048) (1 046) (1 041) (1 041) (1 041) (1 041)
Total shareholders' equity USD mn 1 304 1 663 1 816 1 186 821 1 011 1 223 1 445 1 676 1 922 2 164
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity USD mn 2 604 3 035 3 722 2 686 2 512 2 512 2 604 2 659 2 736 2 784 2 814
D / (D + E) % 37% 30% 38% 49% 61% 52% 44% 35% 26% 17% 8%
Confidential
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
EDC Debt Profile
23
Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
units 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
End of Year Debt Amounts
Revolver USD mn - - 106 108 169 - 395 187
Long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 144 86 32 - - - - -
Loans from stockholders USD mn 40 - - - - - - -
ZAO UniCredit Bank USD mn 227 202 101 - - - - -
Russian ruble bonds USD mn 89 83 82 79 - - - -
BNP PARIBAS SA USD mn 20 16 12 8 4 - - -
1-year repurchase term loan 1 USD mn - 150 - - - - - -
3-year repurchase term loan 2 USD mn - 150 150 150 - - - -
Eurobonds USD mn 600 600 600 600 600 600 - -
Debt (excl. revolver) and long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 1 119 1 287 977 837 604 600 - -
Revolver RUB mn - - 106 108 169 - 395 187
Long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 144 86 32 - - - - -
Loans from stockholders USD mn 40 - - - - - - -
ZAO UniCredit Bank USD mn 227 202 101 - - - - -
Russian ruble bonds RUB mn 5 000 5 000 5 000 5 000 - - - -
BNP PARIBAS SA USD mn 20 16 12 8 4 - - -
1-year repurchase term loan 1 USD mn - 150 - - - - - -
3-year repurchase term loan 2 USD mn - 150 150 150 - - - -
Eurobonds USD mn 600 600 600 600 600 600 - -
Interest rates
Revolver % 16.8% 15.4% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 14.7% 14.7%
Long-term liabilities for PP&E % 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7%
Loans from stockholders % 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%
ZAO UniCredit Bank % 3.7% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.6%
Russian ruble bonds % 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
BNP PARIBAS SA % 4.4% 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4%
1-year repurchase term loan 1 % 4.2% 4.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2%
3-year repurchase term loan 2 % 4.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0%
Eurobonds % 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%
Interest expense
Revolver USD mn - 0 0 0 0 0 1
Long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 6 3 1 - - - -
Loans from stockholders USD mn 1 - - - - - -
ZAO UniCredit Bank USD mn 8 7 2 - - - -
Russian ruble bonds USD mn 7 7 7 3 - - -
BNP PARIBAS SA USD mn 1 1 1 0 0 - -
1-year repurchase term loan 1 USD mn 3 4 - - - - -
3-year repurchase term loan 2 USD mn 3 7 8 4 - - -
Eurobonds USD mn 29 29 29 29 29 15 -
Total interest expense USD mn 59 57 48 37 30 15 1
Confidential
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Rosneft – Standalone Income Statement
24
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Income statement
Revenue USD mn 91 812 97 855 145 821 144 263 83 949 80 528 84 509 89 003 89 812 90 527 90 731
Export duty USD mn (32 732) (33 068) (46 936) (45 406) (15 422) (12 525) (11 914) (12 849) (12 971) (13 079) (13 080)
Operational expenses USD mn (14 082) (16 288) (23 532) (23 310) (15 379) (15 134) (15 928) (16 617) (17 024) (17 216) (17 442)
Transportation costs USD mn (7 353) (7 752) (12 276) (12 256) (7 961) (8 372) (8 726) (8 720) (8 983) (9 143) (9 277)
Taxes other from income tax USD mn (17 201) (20 670) (32 474) (33 507) (23 169) (23 817) (26 514) (28 548) (28 708) (28 875) (28 863)
SG&A USD mn (1 769) (2 187) (3 485) (2 967) (1 807) (1 778) (1 861) (1 918) (1 957) (1 979) (1 978)
EBITDA USD mn 18 675 17 890 27 119 26 817 20 212 18 902 19 566 20 351 20 169 20 235 20 089
EBITDA margin % 20% 18% 19% 19% 24% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22%
Depreciation USD mn - - - - (8 428) (8 776) (9 141) (9 417) (9 939) (10 413) (10 928)
EBIT USD mn 18 675 17 890 27 119 26 817 11 784 10 126 10 424 10 934 10 230 9 822 9 161
EBIT margin % 20% 18% 19% 19% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10%
Interest income USD mn 681 772 659 781 19 57 83 78 119 228 356
Interest expence USD mn (647) (482) (1 758) (5 700) (2 519) (2 460) (2 361) (2 069) (1 891) (1 876) (1 880)
Other gains (losses) USD mn (1 531) 1 544 3 642 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926
Profit before tax USD mn 17 178 19 723 29 662 23 824 11 210 9 649 10 073 10 869 10 383 10 100 9 563
Income tax expense USD mn (3 063) (3 345) (2 543) (3 331) (2 242) (1 930) (2 015) (2 174) (2 077) (2 020) (1 913)
Net income USD mn 14 115 16 378 27 119 20 492 8 968 7 719 8 059 8 696 8 307 8 080 7 651
Attributable to Rosneft shareholders USD mn 13 946 16 289 26 826 20 375 8 892 7 660 7 993 8 630 8 241 8 017 7 590
Attributable to minorities USD mn 169 90 293 117 76 59 66 65 66 63 60
Net income attributable to Rosneft shareholders % 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
Net income attributable to minorities % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Shareholder information
Basic WASO mn of shares 9 591 9 416 10 304 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598
Diluted WASO mn of shares 9 591 9 416 10 304 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598
Basic EPS USD 1.45 1.73 2.60 1.92 0.84 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.72
Diluted EPS USD 1.45 1.73 2.60 1.92 0.84 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.72
Dividends USD mn 2 458 2 438 4 157 2 265 1 316 1 080 1 109 1 163 1 159 1 112 1 049
Dividend per share USD 0.26 0.26 0.40 0.21 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10
Dividend payout ratio x 0.18x 0.15x 0.15x 0.11x 0.15x 0.14x 0.14x 0.13x 0.14x 0.14x 0.14x
Confidential
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Rosneft – Standalone Cash Flow Statement
25
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income USD mn 14 115 16 378 27 119 20 492 8 968 7 719 8 059 8 696 8 307 8 080 7 651
Depreciation USD mn - - - - 8 428 8 776 9 141 9 417 9 939 10 413 10 928
(Inc) / Dec in WC USD mn (800) 125 1 291 2 004 317 (174) (252) 32 26 4
(Inc) / Dec in Deferred income tax assets USD mn (7) (296) 1 - - - - - - -
(Inc) / Dec in Other non-current assets USD mn (4 770) (4 414) 283 - - - - - - -
Inc / (Dec) in Deferred tax laibilities USD mn 1 207 11 107 (9 240) - - - - - - -
Inc / (Dec) in Other long-term liabilities USD mn 674 15 632 (274) - - - - - - -
CFO USD mn 16 572 16 756 38 181 42 320 19 399 16 813 17 026 17 861 18 278 18 519 18 583
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchases of PP&E USD mn (13 305) (15 212) (17 584) (13 872) (9 825) (10 186) (10 562) (11 134) (11 753) (12 023) (12 307)
Other net proceeds for investing activities USD mn (102) 675 (52 123) (11 608) - - - - - - -
CFI USD mn (13 407) (14 537) (69 706) (25 480) (9 825) (10 186) (10 562) (11 134) (11 753) (12 023) (12 307)
Cash flows from financing activities
Dividends paid USD mn (2 458) (2 438) (4 157) (2 265) (1 316) (1 080) (1 109) (1 163) (1 159) (1 112) (1 049)
Other changes in equity USD mn - - - - - - -
Cash flow available for debt repayment USD mn 8 259 5 547 5 355 5 564 5 366 5 383 5 227
(Repayment) Issuance of revolver USD mn - - - - - - -
(Repayment) Issuance of debt (excl. revolver) USD mn - - - - (7 030) (4 975) (5 835) (6 934) (1 030) (964) (322)
CFF USD mn (1 906) 2 348 30 300 (20 145) (8 346) (6 055) (6 944) (8 096) (2 189) (2 076) (1 371)
Net cash flow USD mn 1 259 4 567 (1 225) (3 305) 1 229 572 (480) (1 369) 4 336 4 420 4 905
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash USD mn
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period USD mn 3 839 5 068 5 640 5 159 3 790 8 126 12 546
Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents USD mn 1 229 572 (480) (1 369) 4 336 4 420 4 905
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period USD mn 3 839 5 068 5 640 5 159 3 790 8 126 12 546 17 451
Confidential
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Rosneft – Standalone Balance Sheet
26
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Assets
Current assets
C&CE USD mn 5 156 9 844 8 402 3 839 5 068 5 640 5 159 3 790 8 126 12 546 17 451
Other short-term financial assets USD mn 4 938 3 095 7 119 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869
Accounts receivable, net USD mn 6 988 7 803 12 680 9 847 6 529 6 245 6 572 6 922 6 985 7 021 7 056
Inventories USD mn 3 976 4 412 6 172 4 142 3 838 3 855 4 054 4 167 4 277 4 323 4 394
Other current assets USD mn 4 970 6 091 10 083 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181
Total current assets USD mn 26 028 31 245 44 456 37 879 35 485 35 790 35 836 34 929 39 438 43 940 48 951
Non-current assets
PP&E USD mn 73 642 86 558 161 171 100 714 102 111 103 521 104 942 106 658 108 473 110 083 111 462
Intangible assets USD mn 683 626 1 069 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871
Deferred income tax assets USD mn 124 132 428 427 427 427 427 427 427 427 427
Goodwill USD mn 4 410 4 741 6 416 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822
Other non-current assets USD mn 2 671 7 441 11 855 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572
Total non-current assets USD mn 81 532 99 497 180 939 117 405 118 802 120 212 121 633 123 349 125 164 126 774 128 153
Assets held for sale USD mn 4 705
Total assets USD mn 107 560 130 742 230 100 155 283 154 287 156 003 157 469 158 278 164 601 170 714 177 104
Liabilities and shareholder's equity
Current liabilities
Revolver USD mn - - - - - - - - - - -
Accounts payable USD mn 5 901 6 947 14 910 8 781 7 163 7 214 7 566 7 776 7 981 8 090 8 200
Tax liabilities USD mn 2 361 2 963 5 255 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573
Other current liabilities USD mn 373 296 794 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133
Total current liabilities USD mn 8 635 10 207 20 960 14 487 12 869 12 920 13 272 13 482 13 687 13 795 13 906
Non-current liabilities USD mn
Total debt except revolver USD mn 23 636 32 266 72 871 60 542 53 098 48 066 42 126 35 006 33 880 32 886 32 547
Deferred tax laibilities USD mn 7 485 8 692 19 799 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558
Other long-term liabilities USD mn 2 454 3 128 18 760 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486
Total non-current liabilities USD mn 33 575 44 086 111 430 89 587 82 143 77 110 71 170 64 050 62 924 61 931 61 591
Liabilities associated with assets held for sale USD mn 886
Equity
Share Capital USD mn 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
Additional paid-in capital USD mn 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763
Treasury shares USD mn - - - - - - - -
Other funds and reserves USD mn (8 888) (8 474) (8 416) (8 312) (8 125) (8 029) (7 999) (7 982)
Retained earnings USD mn 51 157 58 732 65 313 72 197 79 664 86 747 93 651 100 193
Minority interests USD mn 160 236 295 361 426 492 555 615
Total equity and minority interest USD mn 51 210 59 276 65 972 73 027 80 746 87 990 94 988 101 607
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity USD mn 155 283 154 287 156 003 157 469 158 278 164 601 170 714 177 104
Confidential
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Post Merger Income Statement
27Confidential
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Income statement
Revenue USD mn 85 936 81 550 85 015 89 526 90 343 91 060 91 252
Export duty USD mn (15 422) (12 525) (11 914) (12 849) (12 971) (13 079) (13 080)
Operational expenses USD mn (16 755) (15 610) (15 928) (16 617) (17 024) (17 216) (17 442)
Transportation costs USD mn (7 961) (8 372) (8 726) (8 720) (8 983) (9 143) (9 277)
Taxes other from income tax USD mn (23 169) (23 817) (26 514) (28 548) (28 708) (28 875) (28 863)
SG&A USD mn (1 914) (1 860) (1 948) (2 007) (2 051) (2 076) (2 074)
EBITDA USD mn 20 714 19 367 19 985 20 785 20 605 20 671 20 516
EBITDA margin % 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 22%
Depreciation USD mn (8 615) (8 937) (9 317) (9 598) (10 130) (10 614) (11 140)
EBIT USD mn 12 099 10 430 10 668 11 187 10 476 10 057 9 376
EBIT margin % 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10%
Interest income USD mn 13 42 65 63 110 224 359
Interest expence USD mn (2 578) (2 517) (2 408) (2 106) (1 921) (1 890) (1 880)
Other gains (losses) USD mn 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926
Profit before tax USD mn 11 460 9 881 10 250 11 070 10 591 10 317 9 781
Income tax expense USD mn (2 292) (1 976) (2 050) (2 214) (2 118) (2 063) (1 956)
Net income USD mn 9 168 7 905 8 200 8 856 8 473 8 253 7 825
Net income USD mn 558 495 527 601 586 578 553
Attributable to Rosneft shareholders USD mn 9 090 7 845 8 133 8 790 8 405 8 189 7 763
Attributable to minorities USD mn 78 60 67 66 67 64 61
Net income attributable to Rosneft shareholders % 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%
Net income attributable to minorities % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Shareholder information
Basic WASO mn of shares 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598
Diluted WASO mn of shares 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598
Basic EPS USD 0.86 0.74 0.77 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.73
Diluted EPS USD 0.86 0.74 0.77 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.73
Dividends USD mn 1 345 1 106 1 129 1 184 1 182 1 136 1 073
Dividend per share USD 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10
Dividend payout ratio x 0.15x 0.14x 0.14x 0.13x 0.14x 0.14x 0.14x
0.84 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.72
0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Post Merger Cash Flow Statement
28Confidential
Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cash flows from operating activities
Net income USD mn 9 168 7 905 8 200 8 856 8 473 8 253 7 825
Depreciation USD mn 8 615 8 937 9 317 9 598 10 130 10 614 11 140
(Inc) / Dec in WC USD mn 2 304 247 (184) (253) 32 6 25
CFO USD mn 20 087 17 089 17 333 18 201 18 634 18 874 18 989
Cash flows from investing activities
Purchases of PP&E USD mn (10 169) (10 134) (10 358) (10 913) (11 518) (11 775) (12 082)
Other net proceeds for investing activities USD mn - - - - - - -
CFI USD mn (10 169) (10 134) (10 358) (10 913) (11 518) (11 775) (12 082)
Free cash flow (deal) USD mn 9 918 6 955 6 975 7 288 7 116 7 099 6 907
Free cash flow (no deal) USD mn 9 575 6 626 6 464 6 727 6 525 6 496 6 276
Cash flows from financing activities
Dividends paid USD mn (1 345) (1 106) (1 129) (1 184) (1 182) (1 136) (1 073)
EDC free-float repurchase USD mn (357)
Issuance of 2 term loans by EDC for repurchase USD mn 300
Cash flow available for debt repayment USD mn 8 516 5 849 5 846 6 104 5 934 5 962 5 834
(Repayment) Issuance of revolver USD mn - - - - - - -
(Repayment) Issuance of debt (excl. revolver) USD mn (7 156) (5 284) (5 973) (7 163) (1 034) (1 564) (322)
CFF USD mn (8 559) (6 390) (7 101) (8 347) (2 216) (2 700) (1 395)
Net cash flow USD mn 1 359 566 (126) (1 059) 4 900 4 399 5 512
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash USD mn
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period USD mn 2 338 3 698 4 263 4 137 3 078 7 978 12 377
Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents USD mn 1 359 566 (126) (1 059) 4 900 4 399 5 512
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period USD mn 2 338 3 698 4 263 4 137 3 078 7 978 12 377 17 889
Sources: Annual Report IFRS
Post Merger Balance Sheet
29Confidential
2014 Actual 2014 Actual Adjustments 2014 Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted
Balance sheet ROSNEFT EDC + - PRO FORMA 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Current assets
C&CE 3 839 327 (1 828) 2 338 3 698 4 263 4 137 3 078 7 978 12 377 17 889
Other short-term financial assets 12 869 - 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869
Accounts receivable, net 9 847 359 10 207 6 683 6 342 6 611 6 962 7 026 7 082 7 097
Inventories 4 142 140 4 282 4 065 3 933 4 054 4 167 4 277 4 323 4 394
Other current assets 7 181 32 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213
Total current assets 37 879 858 36 909 34 528 34 620 34 885 34 289 39 363 43 864 49 462
Non-current assets
PP&E 100 714 1 687 102 401 103 955 105 152 106 193 107 507 108 896 110 057 110 999
Intangible assets 871 - 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871
Deferred income tax assets 427 2 429 429 429 429 429 429 429 429
Goodwill 3 822 87 729 (87) 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550
Other non-current assets 11 572 51 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623
Total non-current assets 117 405 1 828 119 874 121 428 122 625 123 666 124 980 126 369 127 530 128 472
Assets held for sale
Total assets 155 283 2 686 156 783 155 955 157 245 158 551 159 269 165 732 171 393 177 934
Liabilities and shareholder's equity
Current liabilities
Revolver - - - - - - - - -
Accounts payable 8 781 241 9 022 7 585 7 360 7 566 7 776 7 981 8 090 8 200
Tax liabilities 3 573 4 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577
Other current liabilities 2 133 42 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175
Total current liabilities 14 487 287 14 774 13 337 13 112 13 318 13 528 13 733 13 841 13 952
Non-current liabilities
Total debt except revolver 60 542 1 119 61 661 54 385 49 043 42 963 35 610 34 480 32 886 32 547
Deferred tax laibilities 10 558 71 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630
Other long-term liabilities 18 486 22 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508
Total non-current liabilities 89 587 1 212 90 799 83 522 78 180 72 101 64 747 63 617 62 023 61 684
Liabilities associated with assets held for sale
Equity
Share Capital 18 1 (1) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
Additional paid-in capital 8 763 653 (653) 8 763 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406
Treasury shares - (59) 59 - - - - - - - -
Other funds and reserves (8 888) (1 055) 1 055 (8 888) (8 467) (8 409) (8 302) (8 112) (8 015) (7 985) (7 968)
Retained earnings 51 157 1 645 (1 645) 51 157 58 902 65 641 72 646 80 251 87 475 94 527 101 218
Minority interests 160 - 160 238 298 365 431 499 563 624
Total equity and minority interest 51 210 1 186 51 210 59 095 65 953 73 132 80 995 88 382 95 529 102 298
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 155 283 2 686 156 783 155 955 157 245 158 551 159 269 165 732 171 393 177 934

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M&A valuation: EDC acquisition by Rosneft, 2016

  • 1. Investment Opportunity For Rosneft Management Presentation May 21, 2016
  • 2. Disclaimer 3 Exclusive opportunity to acquire a 100% interest in Eurasia Drilling Company Limited (EDC) This document has been prepared solely for information purposes by M&A – corporate finance department, for the use of the management and shareholders of OJSC "Rosneft Oil Company" (“Investor” or “Rosneft”) for the purpose of analyzing the investment opportunity in the Russian oilfield services market and without any commitment or responsibility on our part. The Investor is invited to consider acquisition of the largest provider of oil and gas drilling services in Russia - Eurasia Drilling Company Limited, (“Company” or “EDC”). Information in this presentation reflects external business environment conditions and opinion only as of the date of this presentation. This presentation should not be considered complete unless presented during a final meeting between the Investor and M&A – corporate finance department. This presentation may not be disclosed to any third parties or used for any purposes other than stated above without prior written consent of M&A – corporate finance department. Hereby we state Company’ s Valuation Date: 1/12/2015 (after Company’s delisting 17/11/2015) Confidential
  • 3. Company profile 5 Deal rationale 7 Valuation I. DCF 9 II. Precedent Transaction Valuation 11 III .Comparable Companies Valuation 12 Valuation Summary 13 Executive summary Synergy effects 15 Exclusive Investment Proposal 16 Appendix Purchase price calculation 18 EDC – Standalone DCF Valuation 19 EDC – Standalone Income Statement 20 EDC – Standalone Cash Flow Statement 21 EDC – Standalone Balance Sheet 22 EDC – Standalone Debt Profile 23 Rosneft – Standalone Income Statement 24 Rosneft – Standalone Cash Flow Statement 25 Rosneft – Standalone Balance Sheet 26 Post Merger Income Statement 27 Post Merger Standalone Cash Flow Statement 28 Post Merger Standalone Balance Sheet 29 Contents 4
  • 4. Company profile • The largest drilling company in Russia 27% of Russian drilling footage in 2014 • The largest independent Russian OFS provider ~13% of Russian OFS market share in 2014 • EDCs OFS market segments onshore and offshore drilling, onshore integrated well construction and workover services • 3 Oil&Gas majors in client portfolio Lukoil (63%), Gazprom Neft (22%), Rosneft (7%) • Current credit rating Fitch: BB (Pos). S&P: BB+ (Neg). Description Key Russian* assets In USD mn Sources: Company data, Team estimates, VTB Capital Financial metrics Shareholder structure (*) Foreign assets of EDC contribute a negligible part of Company’s revenue and EBITDA. 5 261 rigs drilling and sidetracking Up-to-date equipment over 40% of rigs are less than 10 years old Geographical presence in all major oil production regions 2767 3237 3478 2975 1 992 2 134 2 283 2 323 400 620 580 530 344 215 239 227 22% 24% 27% 28% 25% 26% 27% 26% 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue CAPEX EBITDA margin Before delisting After delisting (estimation) 30% 22%15% 32% 33% 45% 22% A. Putilov Others Free-float A. Djaparidze Others After delisting, two major investors increased their share together from 55% to 78%.
  • 6. Rosneft actively develops its own in-house services, Structure of development drilling (mn m) EDC has the potential to cover most of Rosneft’s need in drilling, Total meters drilled (mn m) Key benefits for Rosneft Sources: Rosneft and EDC data, Team analysis 2 2.35 2.8 2014A 2015F 2016F Current in-house service In-house service expansion Third-party contractors Total in-house service 2.0 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.9 5.0 6.0 5.1 3.3 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.8 6.1 6.3 5.7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rosneft's demand EDC's supply Great opportunity for in-house drilling development 2. Performance improvement 7 1. Cost optimization 3. Other revenue enhancement Development of internal services is an increasing trend among Russian oil companies (incl. Tatneft, Slavneft and SurgutNefteGaz). (*) Over 25% of EDC’s drilling and sidetrack rigs are 5 years old or less, over 40% - less than 10 years old. 38% 27% 31% 15% 35% 36% 46% 37% 33% short-term target share = 75-80% 5.2 mn m 8.6 mn m 9.0 mn m 2016F Drilled by in-house unit 9.0 5.1 • Reduce costs by relying on in-house service, which is 5-9% lower compared to the cost of services provided by third-party contractors. • Obtain market price independence. – Rosneft plans to increase its in- house drilling services share to 80% in the near future. • Increase its drilling efficiency after acquiring one of the youngest* and technologically advanced rig fleets in the industry. • Increase profit by providing drilling service to peer companies until the end of framework agreements (contract with Lukoil ends in 2015, with Gazprom Neft – 2016). • Increase its revenue with offshore drilling in the Caspian Sea. 54% 63% 67%
  • 8. 29% 24% 5% 5% 3% 34% EDC Surgut NG SSK RU-Energy Eriell All others 27% 21% 6%4% 4% 38% Total crude oil output in Russia will grow and brownfield crude oil production in Western Siberia will remain stable in the mid-term outlook After the decrease in 2014 drilling footage & share of horizontal drilling will grow reflecting the depletion of brownfields and growth of crude oil output On the basis of the market outlook we derive the following key assumptions for our revenue forecast used for building the DCF model • Total drilling footage in Russia will constantly grow (CAGR = 5.82%, till 2021). • EDC market share will decline 1 p.p. per year due to in-house development trend in the oilfield services industry. • Share of horizontal drilling (more profitable service than vertical drilling) will increase from 27% in 2014 to 32% in 2020 and EDC is capable of providing such services. • However, premium for horizontal drilling will decline (in 2021 it will be almost zero) comparable to vertical drilling. In spite of the growing competition the Company maintains its leading position by meters drilled 2013 2014 10,2 12,9 15,1 16,2 15,4 18,1 19,5 21,1 21,9 20,6 22,6 23,1 25,0 26,6 28,8 30,6 11% 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% 13% 15% 23% 27% 27% 27% 28% 29% 31% 32% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Russian onshore drilling market size (millions of meters drilled) Share of horizontal meters 333 338 339 333 325 320 319 317 314 313 308 302 305 299 298 299 97 100 101 103 106 111 114 116 118 118 120 119 118 117 115 114 23 24 24 27 31 30 28 27 27 28 29 32 32 34 35 36 20 27 35 41 44 47 48 50 52 54 5617 18 27 24 25 24 23 23 23 24 27 29 27 33 35 32 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Western Siberia Volga-Urals Timan-Pechora Eastern Siberia Others I. DCF Valuation: EDC Standalone Revenue forecasts Sources: Renergy, Deloitte, EDC data 9 Crude oil output, mn t Confidential
  • 9. 2 975 1 988 2 127 (179) (648) (160) 0 (30) 82 33 54 Revenue'14 Δ Onshore footage Δ Revenue/ m onshore Δ Other onshore services Δ Offshore services Revenue'15 Δ Onshore footage Δ Revenue/ m onshore Δ Other onshore services Δ Offshore services Revenue'16 Onshore drilling Onshore drilling (193) 131 I. DCF Valuation: Revenue and FCFF projections Sources: Team analysis • Slump in 2015 is forecasted due to significant ruble depreciation, and therefore devaluation of prices for onshore drilling - key Company’s services. • Offshore prices are denominated in dollars and unaffected by FX rate fluctuations. • From 2015 till the end of projection period revenue is constantly growing due to steadily increasing prices for services against flat drilling activity (CAGR = 3.1%, till 2021). • Rapid decrease of cash inflows due to revenue slump in 2015 is counterbalanced by much lower cash outflows for CapEx. • CapEx is much lower in forecast years than in 2011-2014 because of (1) finish of payments for the fifth jack-up rig in 2014, (2) termination of rig modernization program in 2016. Thus, we forecast that EDC will reduce its CapEx to maintenance levels in the forecast period. Revenue 10 In USD mn Free cash flow to the Firm In USD mn 138 221 251 90 65 129 (164) FCFF'14 Δ NOPAT Δ CapEx Δ Depreciation and WC FCFF'15 Δ NOPAT Δ CapEx Δ Depreciation and WC FCFF'16 Ruble depreciation significantly pressed prices for services. ∆ Average price ∆ Average price From 2016 to 2021 Revenues and Cash Flows are expected to be flat. ∆ Depreciation and NWC ∆ Depreciation and NWC Confidential
  • 10. M&A closed deals of global Oil and Gas Drilling and Gas Field Service companies (OFS) Purchase Premium ~ 20% Sources: Capital IQ, Mergermarket, Bloomberg • Lack of comparable historic transactions for oil and gas service companies in Russia. Considerations • Value of the company was calculated by applying EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue ratios from previous transactions. • This valuation method includes 20% premium historically paid for control in oil and gas drilling industry. II. Transaction Multiples / Precedent Transaction Valuation 11 M&A Closed Date Target/Issuer Country Buyers/Investors Transaction Value, in mln $ Percent Sought (%) EV in mln $ EV/ Revenue EV/ EBITDA Target Stock Premium 1 Day Prior 16.01.2015 C.A.T. Oil Austria Maurice Dijols - 50.3 892.8 2.1x 7.5x 3.8% 23.05.2014 Integra Group Russsia Integra's management team 253.8 70.0 220.1 - 5.6x 33.3% 04.03.2014 Kreuz Holdings Singapore Headland Capital Partners 381.0 100.0 369.9 1.5x 5.2x 4.6% 12.02.2014 Mermaid Maritime Thailand Thoresen Thai Agencies Public 53.8 9.23 543.4 1.9x 8.9x 3.0% 22.04.2013 IROC Energy Services Corp. Canada Western Energy Services 186.9 100.0 186.8 1.9x 6.5x 33.8% 05.11.2012 Union Drilling USA Sidewinder Drilling 243.7 100.0 243.6 0.9x 4.9x 6.0% 01.10.2012 Pure Energy Services Canada FMC Technologies 313.9 100.0 310.0 1.1x 5.4x 40.1% 07.02.2012 Complete Production Services USA Superior Energy Services 3 309.7 100.0 3 101.4 1.5x 5.6x 61.4% 03.10.2011 Transocean Norway Drilling Norway Transocean Services 3 435.6 100.0 3 344.1 8.5x 14.8x 98.5% 03.06.2011 Bronco Drilling Co. USA Chesapeake Energy Corporation 342.8 100.0 328.0 2.4x 12.3x 5.8% Max 8.5x 14.8x 99% 75th Percentile: 2.1x 8.5x 39% Median 1.9x 6.0x 20% 25th Percentile: 1.5x 5.4x 5% Min 0.9x 4.9x 3% Confidential Description
  • 11. Trading multiple valuation of global Oil & Gas onshore/offshore drilling-service companies (OFS) Sources: Bloomberg, 01.12.2015 • Lack of public oil and gas service companies with similar characteristics and geography of assets. • Comparable analysis with international peers with similar operating profile. • Comparable companies analysis involves the comparison of operating metrics and valuation multiples for public companies in a peer group to those of a target company. • In our analysis, indicative value of the company was calculated by applying EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue ratios of listed comparable companies. Description Considerations III. Trading Multiples / Comparable Companies Valuation 12 Company Country Market cap EV, in mln $ Revenue, in mln $ EBITDA, in mln $ EBITDA, margin EV/Revenue EV/EBITDA 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016E 2015 2016E Baker Hughes USA 19 194 21 132 15 742 1 815 11.5% 1.3x 2.2x 11.6x 31.3x Weatherford Switzerland 6 963 13 625 9 433 1 307 13.9% 1.4x 2.2x 10.4x 34.5x Helmerich & Payne USA 5 093 5 933 2 568 1 072 41.7% 2.3x 4.2x 5.5x 16.3x Transocean Switzerland 4 507 10 976 7 019 3 089 44.0% 1.6x 2.9x 3.6x 7.4x Ensco Britain 3 622 6 933 4 063 2 075 51.1% 1.7x 2.4x 3.3x 5.0x Saipem Spa-Unspon Italy 3 537 9 531 12 773 564 4.4% 0.7x 0.7x 16.9x - Noble Corp Britain 2 553 7 165 3 071 1 681 54.7% 2.3x 3.3x 4.3x 6.5x Nabors Industries USA 2 393 5 975 3 864 1 127 29.2% 1.5x 2.8x 5.3x 10.4x Patterson-Uti Energy USA 2 219 3 248 1 891 582 30.8% 1.7x 3.6x 5.6x 16.5x C.A.T. Oil Austria 337 402 358 99 27.6% 1.1x 0.7x 4.1x 2.8x Max 54.7% 2.3x 4.2x 16.9x 34.5x 75th Percentile: 43.4% 1.7x 3.2x 9.2x 16.5x Median 30.0% 1.6x 2.9x 5.4x 10.4x 25th Percentile: 17.3% 1.4x 2.2x 4.1x 6.5x Min 4.4% 0.7x 0.7x 3.3x 2.8x Confidential
  • 12. Equity Value sensitivity to WACC and TGR TGR Valuation Summary: Football Field Valuation Chart 13 2 729 Equity Value, $ million 1 854 1 990 1 687 2 222 1 413 4 401 3 605 1 959 1 122 2 466 1 424 1 528 1 169 4 799 4 608 2 357 2 125 2 864 2 427 2 288 1 679 0 600 1 200 1 800 2 400 3 000 3 600 4 200 4 800 5 400 6 000 Exit Multiple WACC: 12.4%-14.4% Exit Multiple: 4.0x IRR’19 . ~ 30% Gordon Growth WACC: 12.4%-14.4% TGR: 3% Implied EV/EBITDA - 5.9x EV/EBITDA EV/Revenue International M&A (2011-2015) Control Premium 20% EV/EBITDA ‘15 EV/Revenue ’15 (International peers) EV/EBITDA ‘16 EV/Revenue ‘16 1 854 15.4% 14.4% 13.4% 12.4% 11.4% 4.0% 1 512 1 758 2 056 2 425 2 895 3.5% 1 445 1 674 1 950 2 288 2 712 3.0% 1 383 1 598 1 854 2 165 2 551 2.5% 1 326 1 528 1 767 2 055 2 408 2.0% 1 273 1 463 1 687 1 955 2 280 Equity Value sensitivity to WACC and Exit Multiple 1 413 15.4% 14.4% 13.4% 12.4% 11.4% 5.0x 1 528 1 629 1 736 1 848 1 967 4.5x 1 382 1 475 1 574 1 679 1 789 4.0x 1 235 1 322 1 413 1 510 1 611 3.5x 1 089 1 169 1 252 1 340 1 433 3.0x 943 1 015 1 091 1 171 1 255 WACC ExitMultiple Sources: Company’s annual report, Capital IQ, Mergermarket, Bloomberg, 01.12.2015 Importance DCF (Gordon Growth) 40% DCF (Exit multiples) 40% Trading multiples 10% Transaction multiples 10% Implied EBITDA'15 multiple 5.5x EBITDA'15 501 EV 2 754 Net Debt 1 092 Fair Equity Value 1 662 3430 5239 6605 2613 1696 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DCF method is the primary valuation tool and our final Equity Value ranges from $1.4 to $2.0 billion. Given net debt of ~ $1 billion. I. Discounted Cash Flow II. Transaction Multiple III. Trading Multiple Implied Multiple’15Equity Valuation range 1 413 – 1 990, $ million 4.5x – 5.5x 5.2x – 6.7x 5.0x – 7.0x 1.8x – 2.0x 4.4x – 6.4x 1.5x – 1.7x 9.4x – 11.4x 2.8x – 3.0x Market cap, historical WACC In USD mn
  • 14. Synergy effects 15Sources: Team analysis FCFF Adjustments SG&A • Head office and marketing costs reduction CAPEX reduction • As services are provided by in-house drilling unit (major source of synergy) Synergy effect - FCFF Confidential In USD mn PV of projected synergies realized in forecast period = USD 738 mn Revenue • Loss of Revenue attributable to third party • Gains from enhanced flow rates from new wells drilled by Company – Impact of sales of additional crude oil produced Revenue & Cost Synergies 113 168 171 176 180 172 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F The first year with significant positive synergies We recommend the acquisition of EDC, as the deal promises significant synergistic effect for the Investor.
  • 15. Exclusive Investment Proposal Equity transaction value (adj. for control premium and illiquidity discount) Equity value USD mn 1 662 Control premium % 20% Illiquidity discount % (10%) EQUITY TRANSACTION VALUE (100% stake) USD mn 1 828 Shares outstanding (after delisting) mn 101 Proposed price per share USD 12.55 Deal analysis 2016F 2017F Rosneft EPS 0.72 0.75 Combo EPS 0.74 0.77 EPS accretion/dilution 2.4% 1.8% 16 Financing: 100% Cash Rosneft’ Cash available: USD 9 920 mn (3Q 2015 IFRS) Sources: Team analysis Confidential I. Strategy II. Leadership III. Synergy Key benefits of the transaction for Rosneft: PV of projected synergies realized in forecast period = USD 738 mn
  • 17. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Purchase price calculation 18Confidential Purchase price calculation DCF (Perpetual growth model) 5.88x DCF (Exit multiples) 5.00x Trading multiples 5.42x Transaction multiples 6.02x Importance DCF (Perpetual growth model) 40% <- DCF provides the most reliable and comprehensive estimate of share price DCF (Exit multiples) 40% Trading multiples 10% Transaction multiples 10% Implied EBITDA'15 multiple 5.5x EBITDA'15 501 EV 2 754 Net debt 1 092 Equity value 1 662 Diluted shares outstanding (after delisting) 100 873 256 Share price 16.47 Control premium 20% Liquidity discount (10%) Final equity value 1 828 Share price 18.12 1 712 Diluted shares outstanding (before delisting) 145 665 352 Implied share price adjusted for repurchase 12.55 <- provided for comparison with delisting price Last market price (price of delisting) 11.75 Price accretion 6.8% EPS Deal analysis 2015F 2016F Rosneft share price (29/11/15) 4.23 Rosneft EPS 0.84 0.72 EDC EPS 2.03 2.69 Combo EPS 0.86 0.74 EPS Accretion/dilution 2.2% 2.4% Goodwill calculation Equity purchase price 1 828 Target equity 1 186 Existing target goodwill (87) FV of net assets purchase 1 099 Goodwill created 729
  • 18. Sources: Annual Report IFRS EDC – Standalone DCF Valuation 19Confidential Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Category units 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TV Cash flows Fully taxed EBIT USD mn 251 316 343 347 357 367 352 3 474 Depreciation USD mn 188 161 176 180 191 201 212 2 088 Capex USD mn (344) (215) (239) (227) (236) (243) (248) (2 088) (Inc) / Dec in Working Capital USD mn 126 (11) (11) (3) (7) (5) 2 23 FCFF (unlevered FCF) USD mn 221 251 269 297 304 320 317 3 497 TGR % 3% Timing factor - mid-year convention x 0.042 0.583 1.583 2.583 3.583 4.583 5.583 5.583 First period adjustment x 0.083 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Discounted FCFF USD mn 18 233 220 214 194 180 157 1 730 EV Calculation 1.EV (Gordon Growth ) USD m 2 946 TGR 3% implied EBITDA'15 multiple x 5.88x projected USD m 1 216 TV USD m 1 730 59% 2. EV (Exit Multiple) USD m 2 506 Exit EV/EBITDA x 4.0x TV USD m 1 286 implied EBITDA'15 multiple 5.00x Parameters of DCF model Date of discount 1.12.2015 Fiscal year end (1st) 31.12.2015 Share of year remaining 8.33% WACC % 13.4% Capital structure share of debt % 30% share of equity % 70% US government bond (generic 30Y) % 2.8%<- geomean (Bloomberg) Raw Beta % 2.0 Unlevered Beta % 1.2 Equity Risk premium % 6.6%<- Ibbotson 2013 Risk-Free-rate (Russia Eurobond) % 6.3%<- geomean (Bloomberg) Country risk premium % 3.5% Size premium % 1.1%<- Ibbotson 2013 Mid-Cap (3 000 m USD market cap) Industry risk premium % 1.0% Cost of Equity (in USD) % 16.4% Cost of Debt % 8.2%<- EDC Eurobond YTM (01/12/15) Tax Rate % 20.0% Net debt USD mn 1 092<- incl. 2 new term loans taking for share repurchase Equity value USD mn 1 854 Type Gordon growth Exit multiple Valuation date 1.12.2015 1.12.2015 WACC 13.4% 13.4% TGR 3% 3% Exit EV/EBITDA 4.0x 4.0x Value in the forecast period 1 216 1 216 Discounted TV 1 730 1289 Enterprise Value 2 946 2 506 Net Debt / (Cash) 1 092 1 092 Equity Value 1 854 1 413
  • 19. Sources: Annual Report IFRS EDC – Standalone Income Statement 20Confidential Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Income statement Revenue USD mn 2 767 3 237 3 478 2 975 1 988 2 127 2 276 2 317 2 441 2 507 2 471 Cost of services USD mn (2 231) (2 523) (2 622) (2 252) (1 565) (1 616) (1 722) (1 756) (1 861) (1 911) (1 895) Services of subcontractors USD mn (956) (1 000) (1 017) (905) (622) (648) (691) (710) (749) (765) (755) Wages and salaries USD mn (536) (610) (670) (604) (386) (414) (446) (457) (477) (491) (485) Materials USD mn (441) (567) (577) (394) (315) (336) (350) (349) (379) (387) (379) Depreciation USD mn (213) (250) (266) (278) (188) (161) (176) (180) (191) (201) (212) Other USD mn (84) (96) (92) (71) (55) (57) (59) (60) (65) (66) (65) Gross Profit USD mn 536 714 856 723 423 511 554 561 580 596 576 SG&A USD mn (153) (174) (187) (168) (109) (116) (125) (128) (134) (138) (136) EBIT USD mn 383 540 670 555 314 395 429 433 446 458 440 Depreсiation USD mn 213 250 266 278 188 161 176 180 191 201 212 EBITDA USD mn 603 790 940 834 501 556 605 614 637 660 652 Interest expense USD mn (52) (54) (58) (33) (59) (57) (48) (37) (30) (15) (1) Interest income USD mn 11 12 17 27 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 Other gains (losses) USD mn 25 5 (46) (13) - - - - - - - Profit before tax USD mn 367 504 582 536 256 338 382 396 417 444 440 Income tax expense USD mn (84) (122) (150) (115) (51) (68) (76) (79) (83) (89) (88) Net income USD mn 283 382 432 421 205 271 305 317 333 355 352 Shareholder information Basic WASO # of shares 146 768 307 146 782 754 146 778 795 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 Diluted WASO # of shares 146 768 307 147 658 014 146 778 795 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 145 665 352 Basic EPS USD 1.93 2.60 2.94 2.89 1.41 1.86 2.10 2.18 2.29 2.44 2.42 Diluted EPS USD 1.93 2.59 2.94 2.89 1.41 1.86 2.10 2.18 2.29 2.44 2.42 Dividends USD mn 69 103 135 145 60 82 96 99 102 110 109 Dividend per share USD 0.47 0.70 0.92 0.99 0.41 0.57 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.75 0.75 Dividend payout ratio x 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.34 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31
  • 20. Sources: Annual Report IFRS EDC – Standalone Cash Flow Statement 21 Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Cash flows from operating activities Net income USD mn 283 382 432 421 205 271 305 317 333 355 352 Depreciation USD mn 213 250 266 278 188 161 176 180 191 201 212 (Inc) Dec in OWC USD mn (67) 83 (96) 126 (11) (11) (3) (7) (5) 2 (Inc) Dec in Advances USD mn (142) 185 54 - - - - - - - (Inc) Dec in Deferred Income tax assets USD mn 1 0 (0) - - - - - - - (Inc) Dec in Other non-current assets USD mn (6) 42 1 - - - - - - - Inc (Dec) in Accrued pension liability USD mn 4 (3) (4) - - - - - - - Inc (Dec) in Deferred income tax liabilities USD mn 43 15 (36) - - - - - - - Inc (Dec) in Other non-current liabilities USD mn - 5 9 - - - - - - - CFO USD mn 426 592 751 641 519 420 470 495 517 551 566 Cash flows from investing activities Purchases of PP&E USD mn (418) (616) (553) (530) (344) (215) (239) (227) (236) (243) (248) Other net proceeds for investing activities USD mn (431) (1) 57 (3) - - - - - - - CFI USD mn (849) (618) (496) (534) (344) (215) (239) (227) (236) (243) (248) Cash flows from financing activities Share issuance (repurchase) USD mn (5) - (32) (57) (516) - - - - - - Dividends paid USD mn (45) (69) (103) (280) (60) (82) (96) (99) (102) (110) (109) Issuance of 2 term loans for repurchase USD mn - - - - 300 - - - - - - Cash flow available for debt repayment USD mn (101) 123 135 168 179 199 208 (Repayment) Issuance of revolver USD mn - - - - - 106 2 61 (169) 395 (208) (Repayment) Issuance of debt and liabilities for PP&E USD mn 398 (128) 384 (24) (126) (309) (137) (229) (4) (600) - CFF USD mn 347 (197) 249 (361) (402) (285) (231) (268) (275) (315) (317) Net cash flow USD mn (76) (223) 503 (254) (227) (80) - - 6 (6) - Effect of exchange rate changes on cash USD mn (44) 18 (31) (197) - - - - - - - Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period USD mn 629 510 305 778 327 100 20 20 20 26 20 Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents USD mn (120) (204) 472 (451) (227) (80) - - 6 (6) - Cash and cash equivalents at end of period USD mn 510 305 778 327 100 20 20 20 26 20 20 Confidential
  • 21. Sources: Annual Report IFRS EDC – Standalone Balance Sheet 22 Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Assets Current assets Cash and cash equivalents USD mn 510 305 778 327 100 20 20 20 26 20 20 Accounts receivable. net USD mn 379 529 530 359 276 296 316 322 339 349 344 Inventories USD mn 191 213 213 140 120 126 134 137 145 149 146 Taxes receivable USD mn 33 27 46 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Deferred income tax assets USD mn 4 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Other current assets USD mn 43 14 13 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Total current assets USD mn 1 159 1 100 1 591 858 527 474 503 511 542 549 542 Non-current assets PP&E USD mn 1 153 1 492 1 918 1 687 1 844 1 898 1 961 2 008 2 053 2 094 2 131 Advances given for PP&E USD mn 133 276 90 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 Goodwill USD mn 105 108 105 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 Deferred income tax assets USD mn 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Other non-current assets USD mn 51 57 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total non-current assets USD mn 1 445 1 935 2 131 1 828 1 984 2 038 2 101 2 148 2 193 2 235 2 272 Total assets USD mn 2 604 3 035 3 722 2 686 2 512 2 512 2 604 2 659 2 736 2 784 2 813 Liabilities and shareholder's equity Current liabilities Revolver USD mn - - - - - 106 108 169 - 395 187 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities USD mn 407 465 539 241 265 279 297 303 321 328 323 Advances received USD mn 4 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Taxes payable USD mn 69 90 114 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 Deferred income tax liabilities USD mn 5 6 12 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total current liabilities USD mn 486 564 666 287 310 431 451 518 367 770 557 Non-current liabilities Debt (excl. revolver) and long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 753 700 1 114 1 119 1 287 977 837 604 600 - - Accrued pension liability USD mn 11 16 12 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Deferred income tax liabilities USD mn 49 93 108 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 Other non-current liabilities USD mn - - 5 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Total non-current liabilities USD mn 814 808 1 239 1 212 1 380 1 070 930 697 693 93 93 Shareholders' equity Common stock USD mn 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 1.469 Treasury stock. at cost USD mn (2.2) (1.7) (2.0) (58.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) (574.6) Additional paid-in capital USD mn 680 684 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 Retained earnings USD mn 793 1 072 1 369 1 645 1 790 1 979 2 188 2 406 2 637 2 883 3 125 Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income USD mn (168) (94) (206) (1 055) (1 049) (1 048) (1 046) (1 041) (1 041) (1 041) (1 041) Total shareholders' equity USD mn 1 304 1 663 1 816 1 186 821 1 011 1 223 1 445 1 676 1 922 2 164 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity USD mn 2 604 3 035 3 722 2 686 2 512 2 512 2 604 2 659 2 736 2 784 2 814 D / (D + E) % 37% 30% 38% 49% 61% 52% 44% 35% 26% 17% 8% Confidential
  • 22. Sources: Annual Report IFRS EDC Debt Profile 23 Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted units 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 End of Year Debt Amounts Revolver USD mn - - 106 108 169 - 395 187 Long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 144 86 32 - - - - - Loans from stockholders USD mn 40 - - - - - - - ZAO UniCredit Bank USD mn 227 202 101 - - - - - Russian ruble bonds USD mn 89 83 82 79 - - - - BNP PARIBAS SA USD mn 20 16 12 8 4 - - - 1-year repurchase term loan 1 USD mn - 150 - - - - - - 3-year repurchase term loan 2 USD mn - 150 150 150 - - - - Eurobonds USD mn 600 600 600 600 600 600 - - Debt (excl. revolver) and long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 1 119 1 287 977 837 604 600 - - Revolver RUB mn - - 106 108 169 - 395 187 Long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 144 86 32 - - - - - Loans from stockholders USD mn 40 - - - - - - - ZAO UniCredit Bank USD mn 227 202 101 - - - - - Russian ruble bonds RUB mn 5 000 5 000 5 000 5 000 - - - - BNP PARIBAS SA USD mn 20 16 12 8 4 - - - 1-year repurchase term loan 1 USD mn - 150 - - - - - - 3-year repurchase term loan 2 USD mn - 150 150 150 - - - - Eurobonds USD mn 600 600 600 600 600 600 - - Interest rates Revolver % 16.8% 15.4% 14.8% 14.8% 14.8% 14.7% 14.7% Long-term liabilities for PP&E % 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% Loans from stockholders % 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% ZAO UniCredit Bank % 3.7% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.6% Russian ruble bonds % 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% BNP PARIBAS SA % 4.4% 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 1-year repurchase term loan 1 % 4.2% 4.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 3-year repurchase term loan 2 % 4.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% Eurobonds % 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% Interest expense Revolver USD mn - 0 0 0 0 0 1 Long-term liabilities for PP&E USD mn 6 3 1 - - - - Loans from stockholders USD mn 1 - - - - - - ZAO UniCredit Bank USD mn 8 7 2 - - - - Russian ruble bonds USD mn 7 7 7 3 - - - BNP PARIBAS SA USD mn 1 1 1 0 0 - - 1-year repurchase term loan 1 USD mn 3 4 - - - - - 3-year repurchase term loan 2 USD mn 3 7 8 4 - - - Eurobonds USD mn 29 29 29 29 29 15 - Total interest expense USD mn 59 57 48 37 30 15 1 Confidential
  • 23. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Rosneft – Standalone Income Statement 24 Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Income statement Revenue USD mn 91 812 97 855 145 821 144 263 83 949 80 528 84 509 89 003 89 812 90 527 90 731 Export duty USD mn (32 732) (33 068) (46 936) (45 406) (15 422) (12 525) (11 914) (12 849) (12 971) (13 079) (13 080) Operational expenses USD mn (14 082) (16 288) (23 532) (23 310) (15 379) (15 134) (15 928) (16 617) (17 024) (17 216) (17 442) Transportation costs USD mn (7 353) (7 752) (12 276) (12 256) (7 961) (8 372) (8 726) (8 720) (8 983) (9 143) (9 277) Taxes other from income tax USD mn (17 201) (20 670) (32 474) (33 507) (23 169) (23 817) (26 514) (28 548) (28 708) (28 875) (28 863) SG&A USD mn (1 769) (2 187) (3 485) (2 967) (1 807) (1 778) (1 861) (1 918) (1 957) (1 979) (1 978) EBITDA USD mn 18 675 17 890 27 119 26 817 20 212 18 902 19 566 20 351 20 169 20 235 20 089 EBITDA margin % 20% 18% 19% 19% 24% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% Depreciation USD mn - - - - (8 428) (8 776) (9 141) (9 417) (9 939) (10 413) (10 928) EBIT USD mn 18 675 17 890 27 119 26 817 11 784 10 126 10 424 10 934 10 230 9 822 9 161 EBIT margin % 20% 18% 19% 19% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% Interest income USD mn 681 772 659 781 19 57 83 78 119 228 356 Interest expence USD mn (647) (482) (1 758) (5 700) (2 519) (2 460) (2 361) (2 069) (1 891) (1 876) (1 880) Other gains (losses) USD mn (1 531) 1 544 3 642 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 Profit before tax USD mn 17 178 19 723 29 662 23 824 11 210 9 649 10 073 10 869 10 383 10 100 9 563 Income tax expense USD mn (3 063) (3 345) (2 543) (3 331) (2 242) (1 930) (2 015) (2 174) (2 077) (2 020) (1 913) Net income USD mn 14 115 16 378 27 119 20 492 8 968 7 719 8 059 8 696 8 307 8 080 7 651 Attributable to Rosneft shareholders USD mn 13 946 16 289 26 826 20 375 8 892 7 660 7 993 8 630 8 241 8 017 7 590 Attributable to minorities USD mn 169 90 293 117 76 59 66 65 66 63 60 Net income attributable to Rosneft shareholders % 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% Net income attributable to minorities % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Shareholder information Basic WASO mn of shares 9 591 9 416 10 304 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 Diluted WASO mn of shares 9 591 9 416 10 304 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 Basic EPS USD 1.45 1.73 2.60 1.92 0.84 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.72 Diluted EPS USD 1.45 1.73 2.60 1.92 0.84 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.72 Dividends USD mn 2 458 2 438 4 157 2 265 1 316 1 080 1 109 1 163 1 159 1 112 1 049 Dividend per share USD 0.26 0.26 0.40 0.21 0.12 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 Dividend payout ratio x 0.18x 0.15x 0.15x 0.11x 0.15x 0.14x 0.14x 0.13x 0.14x 0.14x 0.14x Confidential
  • 24. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Rosneft – Standalone Cash Flow Statement 25 Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Cash flows from operating activities Net income USD mn 14 115 16 378 27 119 20 492 8 968 7 719 8 059 8 696 8 307 8 080 7 651 Depreciation USD mn - - - - 8 428 8 776 9 141 9 417 9 939 10 413 10 928 (Inc) / Dec in WC USD mn (800) 125 1 291 2 004 317 (174) (252) 32 26 4 (Inc) / Dec in Deferred income tax assets USD mn (7) (296) 1 - - - - - - - (Inc) / Dec in Other non-current assets USD mn (4 770) (4 414) 283 - - - - - - - Inc / (Dec) in Deferred tax laibilities USD mn 1 207 11 107 (9 240) - - - - - - - Inc / (Dec) in Other long-term liabilities USD mn 674 15 632 (274) - - - - - - - CFO USD mn 16 572 16 756 38 181 42 320 19 399 16 813 17 026 17 861 18 278 18 519 18 583 Cash flows from investing activities Purchases of PP&E USD mn (13 305) (15 212) (17 584) (13 872) (9 825) (10 186) (10 562) (11 134) (11 753) (12 023) (12 307) Other net proceeds for investing activities USD mn (102) 675 (52 123) (11 608) - - - - - - - CFI USD mn (13 407) (14 537) (69 706) (25 480) (9 825) (10 186) (10 562) (11 134) (11 753) (12 023) (12 307) Cash flows from financing activities Dividends paid USD mn (2 458) (2 438) (4 157) (2 265) (1 316) (1 080) (1 109) (1 163) (1 159) (1 112) (1 049) Other changes in equity USD mn - - - - - - - Cash flow available for debt repayment USD mn 8 259 5 547 5 355 5 564 5 366 5 383 5 227 (Repayment) Issuance of revolver USD mn - - - - - - - (Repayment) Issuance of debt (excl. revolver) USD mn - - - - (7 030) (4 975) (5 835) (6 934) (1 030) (964) (322) CFF USD mn (1 906) 2 348 30 300 (20 145) (8 346) (6 055) (6 944) (8 096) (2 189) (2 076) (1 371) Net cash flow USD mn 1 259 4 567 (1 225) (3 305) 1 229 572 (480) (1 369) 4 336 4 420 4 905 Effect of exchange rate changes on cash USD mn Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period USD mn 3 839 5 068 5 640 5 159 3 790 8 126 12 546 Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents USD mn 1 229 572 (480) (1 369) 4 336 4 420 4 905 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period USD mn 3 839 5 068 5 640 5 159 3 790 8 126 12 546 17 451 Confidential
  • 25. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Rosneft – Standalone Balance Sheet 26 Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Category units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Assets Current assets C&CE USD mn 5 156 9 844 8 402 3 839 5 068 5 640 5 159 3 790 8 126 12 546 17 451 Other short-term financial assets USD mn 4 938 3 095 7 119 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 Accounts receivable, net USD mn 6 988 7 803 12 680 9 847 6 529 6 245 6 572 6 922 6 985 7 021 7 056 Inventories USD mn 3 976 4 412 6 172 4 142 3 838 3 855 4 054 4 167 4 277 4 323 4 394 Other current assets USD mn 4 970 6 091 10 083 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 7 181 Total current assets USD mn 26 028 31 245 44 456 37 879 35 485 35 790 35 836 34 929 39 438 43 940 48 951 Non-current assets PP&E USD mn 73 642 86 558 161 171 100 714 102 111 103 521 104 942 106 658 108 473 110 083 111 462 Intangible assets USD mn 683 626 1 069 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 Deferred income tax assets USD mn 124 132 428 427 427 427 427 427 427 427 427 Goodwill USD mn 4 410 4 741 6 416 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 3 822 Other non-current assets USD mn 2 671 7 441 11 855 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 11 572 Total non-current assets USD mn 81 532 99 497 180 939 117 405 118 802 120 212 121 633 123 349 125 164 126 774 128 153 Assets held for sale USD mn 4 705 Total assets USD mn 107 560 130 742 230 100 155 283 154 287 156 003 157 469 158 278 164 601 170 714 177 104 Liabilities and shareholder's equity Current liabilities Revolver USD mn - - - - - - - - - - - Accounts payable USD mn 5 901 6 947 14 910 8 781 7 163 7 214 7 566 7 776 7 981 8 090 8 200 Tax liabilities USD mn 2 361 2 963 5 255 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 3 573 Other current liabilities USD mn 373 296 794 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 2 133 Total current liabilities USD mn 8 635 10 207 20 960 14 487 12 869 12 920 13 272 13 482 13 687 13 795 13 906 Non-current liabilities USD mn Total debt except revolver USD mn 23 636 32 266 72 871 60 542 53 098 48 066 42 126 35 006 33 880 32 886 32 547 Deferred tax laibilities USD mn 7 485 8 692 19 799 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 10 558 Other long-term liabilities USD mn 2 454 3 128 18 760 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 18 486 Total non-current liabilities USD mn 33 575 44 086 111 430 89 587 82 143 77 110 71 170 64 050 62 924 61 931 61 591 Liabilities associated with assets held for sale USD mn 886 Equity Share Capital USD mn 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Additional paid-in capital USD mn 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 8 763 Treasury shares USD mn - - - - - - - - Other funds and reserves USD mn (8 888) (8 474) (8 416) (8 312) (8 125) (8 029) (7 999) (7 982) Retained earnings USD mn 51 157 58 732 65 313 72 197 79 664 86 747 93 651 100 193 Minority interests USD mn 160 236 295 361 426 492 555 615 Total equity and minority interest USD mn 51 210 59 276 65 972 73 027 80 746 87 990 94 988 101 607 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity USD mn 155 283 154 287 156 003 157 469 158 278 164 601 170 714 177 104 Confidential
  • 26. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Post Merger Income Statement 27Confidential Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Income statement Revenue USD mn 85 936 81 550 85 015 89 526 90 343 91 060 91 252 Export duty USD mn (15 422) (12 525) (11 914) (12 849) (12 971) (13 079) (13 080) Operational expenses USD mn (16 755) (15 610) (15 928) (16 617) (17 024) (17 216) (17 442) Transportation costs USD mn (7 961) (8 372) (8 726) (8 720) (8 983) (9 143) (9 277) Taxes other from income tax USD mn (23 169) (23 817) (26 514) (28 548) (28 708) (28 875) (28 863) SG&A USD mn (1 914) (1 860) (1 948) (2 007) (2 051) (2 076) (2 074) EBITDA USD mn 20 714 19 367 19 985 20 785 20 605 20 671 20 516 EBITDA margin % 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 22% Depreciation USD mn (8 615) (8 937) (9 317) (9 598) (10 130) (10 614) (11 140) EBIT USD mn 12 099 10 430 10 668 11 187 10 476 10 057 9 376 EBIT margin % 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% Interest income USD mn 13 42 65 63 110 224 359 Interest expence USD mn (2 578) (2 517) (2 408) (2 106) (1 921) (1 890) (1 880) Other gains (losses) USD mn 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 1 926 Profit before tax USD mn 11 460 9 881 10 250 11 070 10 591 10 317 9 781 Income tax expense USD mn (2 292) (1 976) (2 050) (2 214) (2 118) (2 063) (1 956) Net income USD mn 9 168 7 905 8 200 8 856 8 473 8 253 7 825 Net income USD mn 558 495 527 601 586 578 553 Attributable to Rosneft shareholders USD mn 9 090 7 845 8 133 8 790 8 405 8 189 7 763 Attributable to minorities USD mn 78 60 67 66 67 64 61 Net income attributable to Rosneft shareholders % 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% Net income attributable to minorities % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Shareholder information Basic WASO mn of shares 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 Diluted WASO mn of shares 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 10 598 Basic EPS USD 0.86 0.74 0.77 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.73 Diluted EPS USD 0.86 0.74 0.77 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.73 Dividends USD mn 1 345 1 106 1 129 1 184 1 182 1 136 1 073 Dividend per share USD 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.10 Dividend payout ratio x 0.15x 0.14x 0.14x 0.13x 0.14x 0.14x 0.14x 0.84 0.72 0.75 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.72 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
  • 27. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Post Merger Cash Flow Statement 28Confidential Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted units 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Cash flows from operating activities Net income USD mn 9 168 7 905 8 200 8 856 8 473 8 253 7 825 Depreciation USD mn 8 615 8 937 9 317 9 598 10 130 10 614 11 140 (Inc) / Dec in WC USD mn 2 304 247 (184) (253) 32 6 25 CFO USD mn 20 087 17 089 17 333 18 201 18 634 18 874 18 989 Cash flows from investing activities Purchases of PP&E USD mn (10 169) (10 134) (10 358) (10 913) (11 518) (11 775) (12 082) Other net proceeds for investing activities USD mn - - - - - - - CFI USD mn (10 169) (10 134) (10 358) (10 913) (11 518) (11 775) (12 082) Free cash flow (deal) USD mn 9 918 6 955 6 975 7 288 7 116 7 099 6 907 Free cash flow (no deal) USD mn 9 575 6 626 6 464 6 727 6 525 6 496 6 276 Cash flows from financing activities Dividends paid USD mn (1 345) (1 106) (1 129) (1 184) (1 182) (1 136) (1 073) EDC free-float repurchase USD mn (357) Issuance of 2 term loans by EDC for repurchase USD mn 300 Cash flow available for debt repayment USD mn 8 516 5 849 5 846 6 104 5 934 5 962 5 834 (Repayment) Issuance of revolver USD mn - - - - - - - (Repayment) Issuance of debt (excl. revolver) USD mn (7 156) (5 284) (5 973) (7 163) (1 034) (1 564) (322) CFF USD mn (8 559) (6 390) (7 101) (8 347) (2 216) (2 700) (1 395) Net cash flow USD mn 1 359 566 (126) (1 059) 4 900 4 399 5 512 Effect of exchange rate changes on cash USD mn Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period USD mn 2 338 3 698 4 263 4 137 3 078 7 978 12 377 Net (decrease) increase in cash and cash equivalents USD mn 1 359 566 (126) (1 059) 4 900 4 399 5 512 Cash and cash equivalents at end of period USD mn 2 338 3 698 4 263 4 137 3 078 7 978 12 377 17 889
  • 28. Sources: Annual Report IFRS Post Merger Balance Sheet 29Confidential 2014 Actual 2014 Actual Adjustments 2014 Actual Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Forecasted Balance sheet ROSNEFT EDC + - PRO FORMA 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Current assets C&CE 3 839 327 (1 828) 2 338 3 698 4 263 4 137 3 078 7 978 12 377 17 889 Other short-term financial assets 12 869 - 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 12 869 Accounts receivable, net 9 847 359 10 207 6 683 6 342 6 611 6 962 7 026 7 082 7 097 Inventories 4 142 140 4 282 4 065 3 933 4 054 4 167 4 277 4 323 4 394 Other current assets 7 181 32 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 7 213 Total current assets 37 879 858 36 909 34 528 34 620 34 885 34 289 39 363 43 864 49 462 Non-current assets PP&E 100 714 1 687 102 401 103 955 105 152 106 193 107 507 108 896 110 057 110 999 Intangible assets 871 - 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 Deferred income tax assets 427 2 429 429 429 429 429 429 429 429 Goodwill 3 822 87 729 (87) 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 4 550 Other non-current assets 11 572 51 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 11 623 Total non-current assets 117 405 1 828 119 874 121 428 122 625 123 666 124 980 126 369 127 530 128 472 Assets held for sale Total assets 155 283 2 686 156 783 155 955 157 245 158 551 159 269 165 732 171 393 177 934 Liabilities and shareholder's equity Current liabilities Revolver - - - - - - - - - Accounts payable 8 781 241 9 022 7 585 7 360 7 566 7 776 7 981 8 090 8 200 Tax liabilities 3 573 4 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 3 577 Other current liabilities 2 133 42 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 2 175 Total current liabilities 14 487 287 14 774 13 337 13 112 13 318 13 528 13 733 13 841 13 952 Non-current liabilities Total debt except revolver 60 542 1 119 61 661 54 385 49 043 42 963 35 610 34 480 32 886 32 547 Deferred tax laibilities 10 558 71 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 10 630 Other long-term liabilities 18 486 22 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 18 508 Total non-current liabilities 89 587 1 212 90 799 83 522 78 180 72 101 64 747 63 617 62 023 61 684 Liabilities associated with assets held for sale Equity Share Capital 18 1 (1) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Additional paid-in capital 8 763 653 (653) 8 763 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 8 406 Treasury shares - (59) 59 - - - - - - - - Other funds and reserves (8 888) (1 055) 1 055 (8 888) (8 467) (8 409) (8 302) (8 112) (8 015) (7 985) (7 968) Retained earnings 51 157 1 645 (1 645) 51 157 58 902 65 641 72 646 80 251 87 475 94 527 101 218 Minority interests 160 - 160 238 298 365 431 499 563 624 Total equity and minority interest 51 210 1 186 51 210 59 095 65 953 73 132 80 995 88 382 95 529 102 298 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 155 283 2 686 156 783 155 955 157 245 158 551 159 269 165 732 171 393 177 934