13 Slides on the UK Labour Market in May 2014

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13 slides on the UK labour market in May 2014.

All data is from the Labour Market Bulletin which is published by the ONS and can be accessed here: http://bit.ly/1k089z4

Contains:
Headline labour market figures
Changes to employment over the past year by country of birth and nationality
Male and female employment rates since 1971
Data on how people flow around the labour market.

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  • LFS = Labour Force Survey
  • LFS = Labour Force Survey
  • LFS = Labour Force Survey
  • These numbers are from the Labour Force Survey – lots of media discussion around the strong increase in self employment: e.g. http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/may/06/self-employment-uk-job-figures-analysis
  • Very topical!
  • At the moment there is lots of interest in the increase in the number of people working in the UK who were born in Romania and Bulgaria as it is around 1 year since the barriers on immigration were lifted.

    But note:
    1. These estimates are obviously based on smaller sample sizes than the UK headline figures so they cannot be as accurate.
    2. The LFS does not set out to measure migration – it only shows changes in the number of people in employment by country of birth, not the changes in the number of people migrating here.

  • A positive picture again – after divergence in recent years, earnings growth and the CPI are closing in on each other.
    This means that people’s earnings are growing at a similar rate to price increases.
    However, regular pay (earnings excluding bonuses) is still increasing at a slower rate than the cost of living.
  • These are classed as “experimental statistics”

    The numbers differ slightly from some of the headline numbers because all these figures are based on the population aged 16 to 64.

    It is a positive picture, overall there has been:
    A net increase in employment of 270 thousand people
    A net decrease in the number of inactive people, leading to an overall increase in the number of people in the UK labour force (all those employed and unemployed – i.e. working or looking and available to work)
  • 13 Slides on the UK Labour Market in May 2014

    1. 1. THE UK LABOUR MARKET MAY 2014 These slides reflect the opinions of the author and not the official position of the ONS
    2. 2. UK Employment: January - March 2014
    3. 3. UK Unemployment: January - March 2014
    4. 4. Not in the Labour Force: Jan - Mar 2014
    5. 5. The claimant count comes from an “administrative data source” It is not based on a survey. Claimant Count: April 2014
    6. 6. 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Jan- Mar 1993 Jan- Mar 1994 Jan- Mar 1995 Jan- Mar 1996 Jan- Mar 1997 Jan- Mar 1998 Jan- Mar 1999 Jan- Mar 2000 Jan- Mar 2001 Jan- Mar 2002 Jan- Mar 2003 Jan- Mar 2004 Jan- Mar 2005 Jan- Mar 2006 Jan- Mar 2007 Jan- Mar 2008 Jan- Mar 2009 Jan- Mar 2010 Jan- Mar 2011 Jan- Mar 2012 Jan- Mar 2013 Jan- Mar 2014 The employment level is at a record high, however, why is it better to consider the employment rate? Millions Total Number of People in Employment in the UK Aged 16 and Over Employment Level
    7. 7. 67.0 68.0 69.0 70.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 Jan- Mar 1993 Jan- Mar 1994 Jan- Mar 1995 Jan- Mar 1996 Jan- Mar 1997 Jan- Mar 1998 Jan- Mar 1999 Jan- Mar 2000 Jan- Mar 2001 Jan- Mar 2002 Jan- Mar 2003 Jan- Mar 2004 Jan- Mar 2005 Jan- Mar 2006 Jan- Mar 2007 Jan- Mar 2008 Jan- Mar 2009 Jan- Mar 2010 Jan- Mar 2011 Jan- Mar 2012 Jan- Mar 2013 Jan- Mar 2014 The employment rate is rising but it is still not back to it’s pre-downturn level. Employment Rates in the UK for 16 to 64 year oldsEmployment Rate(%) Employment Rate
    8. 8. 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Employment Rate(%) Employment Rates in the UK for Men and Women Aged 16 to 64, 1971 to 2014 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Female employment rate = 67.7% in Jan – Mar 2014 Highest since records began in1971 Men Women Employment Rates for Men and Women
    9. 9. 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 2010 Jan-Mar 2011 Jan-Mar 2012 Jan-Mar 2013 Jan-Mar 2014 A strong increase in the number of self-employed. Jan – Mar 2014: 4.6 million self-employed 1.3 million were estimated to be working part –time. Millions Number of Self-Employed People in the UK, 2008 to 2014 Self - employment
    10. 10. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 UK Nationals Non-UK Nationals UK Born Non-UK Born Thousands Changes to the Number of People in Employment Between Jan-Mar 2013 and Jan-Mar 2014 by Nationality and Country of Birth Nationality Country of Birth 563 178 447 292 NB: The overall changes may differ due to rounding Employment by Nationality & Country of Birth
    11. 11. -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Rest of the world USA Pakistan and Bangladesh India Australia and New Zealand Africa Romania and Bulgaria EUA8 EU14 The “younger” members of the EU Thousands Changes to the Number of People in Employment Between Jan-Mar 2013 and Jan-Mar 2014 Who Were Not Born in the UK, by Country of Birth Employment by Country of Birth
    12. 12. -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan- Mar 2009 Jan- Mar 2010 Jan- Mar 2011 Jan- Mar 2012 Jan- Mar 2013 Jan- Mar 2014 Annual Growth Rates in Earnings and Consumer Prices Earnings ex. bonuses Earnings inc. bonuses Consumer Prices Index Growth in earnings inc. bonuses has risen above growth in consumer prices for the first time since 2010. However, growth in earnings ex. bonuses is still below. Earnings and Prices
    13. 13. The Numbers Refer to The Number of People Aged 16 to 64, in Thousands Unemployment 2,182 Inactivity 8,848 Employment 29,343 Net flow from inactivity to unemployment of 85 Net flow from inactivity to employment of 35 Net flow from unemployment to employment of 235 570 335 444 479 481 396 Labour Market Flows

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