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2009 11 04 The Lean Startup Oredev

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2009 11 04 The Lean Startup Oredev

  1. The Lean Startup#leanstartupØredevNov 4, 2009<br />Eric Ries (@ericries)<br /><br />
  2. Most Startups Fail<br />
  3. Most Startups Fail<br />
  4. Most Startups Fail<br />
  5. Most Startups Fail<br />But it doesn’t have to be that way. <br />We can do better. <br />This talk is about how.<br />
  6. What is a startup?<br />A startup is a human institution designed to deliver a new product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty. <br />Nothing to do with size of company, sector of the economy, or industry<br />
  7. The Pivot<br />What do successful startups have in common?<br />They started out as digital cash for PDAs, but evolved into online payments for eBay. <br />They started building BASIC interpreters, but evolved into the world&apos;s largest operating systems monopoly. <br />They were shocked to discover their online games company was actually a photo-sharing site.<br />Pivot: change directions but stay grounded in what we’ve learned. <br /><br />
  8. Speed Wins<br />if we can reduce the time between major iterations<br />we can increase our odds of success<br />
  9. A Tale of Two Startups<br />
  10. Startup #1<br />
  11. Stealth Startup Circa 2001<br />
  12. All about the team<br />
  13. A good plan?<br />Start a company with a compelling long-term vision. <br />Raise plenty of capital.<br />Hire the absolute best and the brightest.<br />Hire an experienced management team with tons of startup experience.<br />Focus on quality. <br />Build a world-class technology platform.<br />Build buzz in the press and blogosphere.<br />
  14. Achieving Failure<br />Company failed utterly, $40MM and five years of pain.<br />Crippled by “shadow beliefs” that destroyed the effort of all those smart people.<br />
  15. Shadow Belief #1<br />We know what customers want. <br />
  16. Shadow Belief #2<br />We can accurately predict the future. <br />
  17. Shadow Belief #3<br />Advancing the plan is progress. <br />
  18. A good plan?<br />Start a company with a compelling long-term vision. <br />Raise plenty of capital.<br />Hire the absolute best and the brightest.<br />Hire an experienced management team with tons of startup experience.<br />Focus on quality. <br />Build a world-class technology platform.<br />Build buzz in the press and blogosphere.<br />
  19. Startup #2<br />
  20. IMVU<br /> <br />
  21. IMVU<br /> <br />
  22. New plan<br />Shipped in six months – a horribly buggy beta product<br />Charged from day one<br />Shipped multiple times a day (by 2008, on average 50 times a day)<br />No PR, no launch<br />Results 2009: profitable, revenue &gt; $20MM<br />
  23. Lean Startups Go Faster<br />Commodity technology stack, highly leveraged (free/open source, user-generated content, SEM).<br />Customer development – find out what customers want before you build it. <br />Agile (lean) product development – but tuned to the startup condition. <br />
  24. Customer Development<br /><ul><li>Continuous cycle of customer interaction
  25. Rapid hypothesis testing about market, pricing, customers, …
  26. Extreme low cost, low burn, tight focus
  27. Measurable gates for investors</li></ul><br />
  28. Traditional Product Development<br />Unit of Progress: Advance to Next Stage<br />Waterfall<br />Requirements<br />Specification<br />Design<br />Problem: known<br />Solution: known<br />Implementation<br />Verification<br />Maintenance<br />
  29. Agile Product Development<br />Unit of Progress: A line of Working Code<br />“Product Owner” or in-house customer<br />Problem: known<br />Solution: unknown<br />
  30. Product Development at Lean Startup<br />Unit of Progress: Validated Learning About Customers ($$$)<br />Customer Development<br />Hypotheses,<br />Experiments,<br />Insights<br />Problem: unknown<br />Data,<br />Feedback,<br />Insights<br />Solution: unknown<br />
  31. Minimize TOTAL time through the loop<br />IDEAS<br />LEARN<br />BUILD<br />DATA<br />CODE<br />MEASURE<br />
  32. How to build a Lean Startup<br />Let’s talk about some specifics. <br />Continuous deployment<br />Rapid Split-tests<br />Five why’s <br />
  33. Continuous Deployment<br />IDEAS<br />LEARN<br />BUILD<br />Learn Faster<br />Customer Development<br />Five Whys<br />Build Faster<br />Continuous Deployment<br />Small Batches<br />Continuous Integration<br />Refactoring<br />DATA<br />CODE<br />MEASURE<br />Measure Faster<br />Split Testing<br />Actionable Metrics<br />Net Promoter Score<br />SEM <br />
  34. Continuous Deployment<br /><ul><li>Deploy new software quickly
  35. At IMVU time from check-in to production = 20 minutes
  36. Tell a good change from a bad change (quickly)
  37. Revert a bad change quickly
  38. And “shut down the line”
  39. Work in small batches
  40. At IMVU, a large batch = 3 days worth of work
  41. Break large projects down into small batches</li></li></ul><li>Cluster Immune System<br />What it looks like to ship one piece of code to production:<br /><ul><li>Run tests locally (SimpleTest, Selenium)
  42. Everyone has a complete sandbox
  43. Continuous Integration Server (BuildBot)
  44. All tests must pass or “shut down the line”
  45. Automatic feedback if the team is going too fast
  46. Incremental deploy
  47. Monitor cluster and business metrics in real-time
  48. Reject changes that move metrics out-of-bounds
  49. Alerting & Predictive monitoring (Nagios)
  50. Monitor all metrics that stakeholders care about
  51. If any metric goes out-of-bounds, wake somebody up
  52. Use historical trends to predict acceptable bounds</li></ul>When customers see a failure:<br /><ul><li>Fix the problem for customers
  53. Improve your defenses at each level</li></li></ul><li>Rapid Split Tests<br />IDEAS<br />Code Faster<br />Learn Faster<br />BUILD<br />LEARN<br />Continuous<br />Deployment<br />Five Whys Root<br />Cause Analysis<br />CODE<br />DATA<br />Measure Faster<br />MEASURE<br />Rapid Split Tests<br />
  54. Split-testing all the time<br />A/B testing is key to validating your hypotheses<br />Has to be simple enough for everyone to use and understand it<br />Make creating a split-test no more than one line of code:<br />if( setup_experiment(...) == &quot;control&quot; ) {<br /> // do it the old way<br />} else {<br /> // do it the new way<br />}<br />
  55. The AAA’s of Metrics<br />Actionable<br />Accessible<br />Auditable<br />
  56. Measure the Macro<br />Always look at cohort-based metrics over time<br />Split-test the small, measure the large<br />
  57. Five Whys<br />IDEAS<br />Code Faster<br />Learn Faster<br />BUILD<br />LEARN<br />Continuous<br />Deployment<br />Five Whys Root<br />Cause Analysis<br />CODE<br />DATA<br />Measure Faster<br />MEASURE<br />Rapid Split Tests<br />
  58. Five Whys Root Cause Analysis<br /><ul><li>A technique for continuous improvement of company process.
  59. Ask “why” five times when something unexpected happens.
  60. Make proportional investments in prevention at all five levels of the hierarchy.
  61. Behind every supposed technical problem is usually a human problem. Fix the cause, not just the symptom.</li></li></ul><li>There’s much more…<br />IDEAS<br />Code Faster<br />Learn Faster<br />BUILD<br />LEARN<br />Unit Tests<br />Usability Tests<br />Continuous Integration<br />Incremental Deployment<br />Free & Open-Source Components<br />Cloud Computing<br />Cluster Immune System<br />Just-in-time Scalability<br />Refactoring<br />Developer Sandbox<br />Minimum Viable Product<br />Split Tests<br />Customer Interviews<br />Customer Development<br />Five Whys Root Cause Analysis<br />Customer Advisory Board<br />Falsifiable Hypotheses<br />Product Owner Accountability<br />Customer Archetypes<br />Cross-functional Teams<br />Semi-autonomous Teams<br />Smoke Tests<br />CODE<br />DATA<br />Measure Faster<br />MEASURE<br />Split Tests<br />Clear Product Owner<br />Continuous Deployment<br />Usability Tests<br />Real-time Monitoring<br />Customer Liaison<br />Funnel Analysis<br />Cohort Analysis<br />Net Promoter Score<br />Search Engine Marketing<br />Real-Time Alerting<br />Predictive Monitoring<br />
  62. There’s much more…<br />Startup Lessons Learned <br />(season one 2008-2009)<br />Every essay from the blog’s first year<br />New beta – please send feedback<br /><br />
  63. Thanks!<br /><ul><li>ØredevFriday:Just-in-time Scalability & Continuous Deployment
  64. Agile Ways track at 13:10
  65. Startup Lessons Learned Blog
  67. Getting in touch (#leanstartup)
  70. Startup Lessons Learned – in print
  71. Beta version available today