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MAKRO EKONOMI, PASAR KEUANGAN, DAN AKTIVITAS APBN
1
Evaluasi Harian
Kurs
USD/IDR
Harga
Minyak
Pertumbuhan
Ekonomi
Tingkat
Inflasi
Suku Bunga
SBN 10 Tahun
5.30 2.97
-5.30 -3.49
-2.19
-0.74
7.07 5.00
Asumsi 2020 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Asumsi 2021
FR0087
7,29
Asumsi 2021
04/01 14.895
Highest (16/04) 14.615
Lowest (04/01) 13.895
30/08 14.368
31/08 14.265
04/01 51,09
Highest (02/07) 76,17
Lowest (04/01) 51,09
30/08 73,41
31/08 71,72
1.68 1.55 1.38 1.37 1.42 1.68 1.33 1.52
3.00
Real. 2020 Jan'21 Feb'21 Mar'21 Apr'21 Mei'21 Jun'21 Jul'21 Asumsi
2021
* Brent
IHSG & Arus
Modal Asing
Likuiditas
Perbankan
Arus Kas
Pemerintah
Proyeksi
Portofolio
TDR
Penempatan
Dana PEN
Sumber Data: DJPb Dit. PKN (Arus Kas Pemerintah, Portofolio TDR), IBPA (SBN 10 Tahun), Kemen. ESDM (ICP), BPS (PDB, Inflasi), Bloomberg (Kurs, Brent, Likuiditas Perbankan), Refinitiv (IHSG, Arus Modal Asing)
MAKRO EKONOMI PASAR KEUANGAN & AKTIVITAS APBN
* Hanya yang diperkirakan
mempengaruhi likuiditas perbankan
6150
38.13
2 4 8 10 14 16 18 22 24 28 30 2 6 8 12 14 16 21 23 27 29 2 4 6 10 13 18 20 24 26 30
IHSG Modal Asing
6,15
Real. Agustus’21
*) Target sesuai dengan
angka perkiraan realisasi
PNBP TA.2021 pada
Proposal Target dan Pagu
Penggunaan PNBP DJPb
TA.2022 Kemenkeu BA
999. Target dapat
berubah sewaktu-waktu
seiring situasi dan kondisi
ekonomi serta kebijakan.
309,773
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
1 3 5 7 9 111315 1719212325 2729 1 3 5 7 9 111315 1719212325 272931 2 4 6 8 101214 16182022242628 30
Jun Jul Agt
2020 2021
81,36
14,400 14,600
13,728
15,732
14,378
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
2020 2021
Asumsi Rerata Bulanan
65.4
56.6
34.2
20.7
25.7
36.7
40.6
41.6
37.4
38.1
40.7
47.5
53.2
60.4
63.5
62.0
65.5
70.2
72.2
63.8
55.5
33.7
27.0
32.6
40.6
43.3
45.0
41.9
41.9
44.0
52.7
55.2
62.3
65.2
65.4
68.3
73.5
74.52
70.32
63
45
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
2020 2021
Rerata ICP Rerata Brent Asumsi
Nominal Debitur
Himbara 10,00 309,20 4.671.574
BPD 3,50 98,73 564.178
Syariah 3,00 11,85 89.609
Total 16,50 419,78 5.325.361
Bank
Realisasi
Oustanding
938.05
813.45
1,323.32
346.82
210.22
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Kas Masuk Kas Keluar
Pembiayaan Keluar
Belanja
Pembiayaan Masuk
Pendapatan
Rerata Likuiditas Perbankan
Tanggal 4-Januari 5-Januari
USD/IDR 13.895 13.915
PERKEMBANGAN ASUMSI MAKRO DAN PASAR KEUANGAN
Evaluasi Harian
 Nilai tukar Rupiah ditutup flat terhadap dolar AS pada Jumat (27/8)
Tanggal 26-Agust 27Agust
USD/IDR 14.415 14.415
 Harga minyak Brent naik ke USD 72,7.
Tanggal 26 Agust 27 Agust
Brent 72,25 72,7
• Yield SBN seri benchmark ditutup bervariasi. SBN 10 tahun menutup perdagangan di level 6,162% dan SBN
seri 20 tahun 6,914%. (Refinitiv)
Pada hari Jumat (27/8), IHSG ditutup melemah ke level 6.041. Indeks turun sebesar 0,28% atau 17 poin.
Sebanyak 209 saham naik, 364 turun, dan 174 stagnan. Volume perdagangan mencapai Rp10,19 triliun dengan
investor asing melakukan pembelian bersih senilai Rp468 Miliar (US $32,5 juta).
Tanggal 26 Agt 27 Agt
IHSG 6.058 6.041
Modal Asing -US$19 Juta US$32,5 Juta
Tanggal 26 Agt 27 Agt
SBN 10 tahun 6.175 6.162
SBN 20 tahun 6,903 6,914
Berita Utama:
Pada simposium Jackson Hole yang berlangsung pada hari Jumat (27/8) malam WIB, Chairman
The Fed, Jerome Powell menyatakan bahwa pada saat ini ekonomi telah mengalami kemajuan
sesuai dengan target The Fed. Namun, Powell masih mengamati pengaruh Covid-19 varian Delta
terhadap perekonomian. Ia juga tidak memberikan kepastian pelaksanaan tapering. (CNBC)
14.415
14,600
4 8 142026 1 5 111824 2 8 15192531 7 13192329 5 112027 3 9 152125 1 7 13192630 5 1219
J F M A M J J A
2021
Nilai Tukar Rupiah
45
70.23
72,7
4 8 14 20 26 1 5 11 18 24 2 8 15 19 25 31 7 13 19 23 29 5 11 20 27 3 9 15 21 25 1 7 13 19 23 29 4 10 18
J F M A M J J A
Harga Minyak Mentah
Asumsi
ICP
Brent
6.162
6.914
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
SBN 10 Th SBN 20 Th
6041
5800
5900
6000
6100
6200
6300
2-Jun 10-Jun 18-Jun 28-Jun 6-Jul 14-Jul 23-Jul 2-Aug 10-Aug20-Aug
IHSG

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Evaluasi harian.pptx

  • 1. MAKRO EKONOMI, PASAR KEUANGAN, DAN AKTIVITAS APBN 1 Evaluasi Harian Kurs USD/IDR Harga Minyak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Tingkat Inflasi Suku Bunga SBN 10 Tahun 5.30 2.97 -5.30 -3.49 -2.19 -0.74 7.07 5.00 Asumsi 2020 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21 Asumsi 2021 FR0087 7,29 Asumsi 2021 04/01 14.895 Highest (16/04) 14.615 Lowest (04/01) 13.895 30/08 14.368 31/08 14.265 04/01 51,09 Highest (02/07) 76,17 Lowest (04/01) 51,09 30/08 73,41 31/08 71,72 1.68 1.55 1.38 1.37 1.42 1.68 1.33 1.52 3.00 Real. 2020 Jan'21 Feb'21 Mar'21 Apr'21 Mei'21 Jun'21 Jul'21 Asumsi 2021 * Brent IHSG & Arus Modal Asing Likuiditas Perbankan Arus Kas Pemerintah Proyeksi Portofolio TDR Penempatan Dana PEN Sumber Data: DJPb Dit. PKN (Arus Kas Pemerintah, Portofolio TDR), IBPA (SBN 10 Tahun), Kemen. ESDM (ICP), BPS (PDB, Inflasi), Bloomberg (Kurs, Brent, Likuiditas Perbankan), Refinitiv (IHSG, Arus Modal Asing) MAKRO EKONOMI PASAR KEUANGAN & AKTIVITAS APBN * Hanya yang diperkirakan mempengaruhi likuiditas perbankan 6150 38.13 2 4 8 10 14 16 18 22 24 28 30 2 6 8 12 14 16 21 23 27 29 2 4 6 10 13 18 20 24 26 30 IHSG Modal Asing 6,15 Real. Agustus’21 *) Target sesuai dengan angka perkiraan realisasi PNBP TA.2021 pada Proposal Target dan Pagu Penggunaan PNBP DJPb TA.2022 Kemenkeu BA 999. Target dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu seiring situasi dan kondisi ekonomi serta kebijakan. 309,773 - 200,000 400,000 600,000 1 3 5 7 9 111315 1719212325 2729 1 3 5 7 9 111315 1719212325 272931 2 4 6 8 101214 16182022242628 30 Jun Jul Agt 2020 2021 81,36 14,400 14,600 13,728 15,732 14,378 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2020 2021 Asumsi Rerata Bulanan 65.4 56.6 34.2 20.7 25.7 36.7 40.6 41.6 37.4 38.1 40.7 47.5 53.2 60.4 63.5 62.0 65.5 70.2 72.2 63.8 55.5 33.7 27.0 32.6 40.6 43.3 45.0 41.9 41.9 44.0 52.7 55.2 62.3 65.2 65.4 68.3 73.5 74.52 70.32 63 45 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 2020 2021 Rerata ICP Rerata Brent Asumsi Nominal Debitur Himbara 10,00 309,20 4.671.574 BPD 3,50 98,73 564.178 Syariah 3,00 11,85 89.609 Total 16,50 419,78 5.325.361 Bank Realisasi Oustanding 938.05 813.45 1,323.32 346.82 210.22 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Kas Masuk Kas Keluar Pembiayaan Keluar Belanja Pembiayaan Masuk Pendapatan Rerata Likuiditas Perbankan
  • 2. Tanggal 4-Januari 5-Januari USD/IDR 13.895 13.915 PERKEMBANGAN ASUMSI MAKRO DAN PASAR KEUANGAN Evaluasi Harian  Nilai tukar Rupiah ditutup flat terhadap dolar AS pada Jumat (27/8) Tanggal 26-Agust 27Agust USD/IDR 14.415 14.415  Harga minyak Brent naik ke USD 72,7. Tanggal 26 Agust 27 Agust Brent 72,25 72,7 • Yield SBN seri benchmark ditutup bervariasi. SBN 10 tahun menutup perdagangan di level 6,162% dan SBN seri 20 tahun 6,914%. (Refinitiv) Pada hari Jumat (27/8), IHSG ditutup melemah ke level 6.041. Indeks turun sebesar 0,28% atau 17 poin. Sebanyak 209 saham naik, 364 turun, dan 174 stagnan. Volume perdagangan mencapai Rp10,19 triliun dengan investor asing melakukan pembelian bersih senilai Rp468 Miliar (US $32,5 juta). Tanggal 26 Agt 27 Agt IHSG 6.058 6.041 Modal Asing -US$19 Juta US$32,5 Juta Tanggal 26 Agt 27 Agt SBN 10 tahun 6.175 6.162 SBN 20 tahun 6,903 6,914 Berita Utama: Pada simposium Jackson Hole yang berlangsung pada hari Jumat (27/8) malam WIB, Chairman The Fed, Jerome Powell menyatakan bahwa pada saat ini ekonomi telah mengalami kemajuan sesuai dengan target The Fed. Namun, Powell masih mengamati pengaruh Covid-19 varian Delta terhadap perekonomian. Ia juga tidak memberikan kepastian pelaksanaan tapering. (CNBC) 14.415 14,600 4 8 142026 1 5 111824 2 8 15192531 7 13192329 5 112027 3 9 152125 1 7 13192630 5 1219 J F M A M J J A 2021 Nilai Tukar Rupiah 45 70.23 72,7 4 8 14 20 26 1 5 11 18 24 2 8 15 19 25 31 7 13 19 23 29 5 11 20 27 3 9 15 21 25 1 7 13 19 23 29 4 10 18 J F M A M J J A Harga Minyak Mentah Asumsi ICP Brent 6.162 6.914 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 SBN 10 Th SBN 20 Th 6041 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 2-Jun 10-Jun 18-Jun 28-Jun 6-Jul 14-Jul 23-Jul 2-Aug 10-Aug20-Aug IHSG