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Analyzing the Character of Income
Inequality in the Relationship
Between Happiness and Fertility
Rate
——the Case of China
Yapeng Li
Ritsumeikan University
Graduate School of Economics
2023.8.24
Structure of the report
⚫Demographic Transition in China
⚫Pioneering Research
⚫Research Data
⚫Empirical Analysis
⚫Conclusion
2
Demographic
Transition in China
3
Fluctuations of Birth Rate in China
Population Policy in China
Population Simulation
Fluctuations of Birth Rate in China
⚫Before the second
population census(1964) :
➢The birth rate remains at
a high level, while the
death rate is decreasing.
The population growth
rate is on the rise.
⚫After the second
population census(1964) :
➢Birth rates begin to
decline. Death rates
decline until the third
population census
(1982), then remain
relatively stable. Overall,
population growth rates
decrease.
4
Source: Compiled by the author from "China Statistical Yearbook" (various editions).
Note: The horizontal axis indicates the years of each population census, with the First National
Population Census commencing in 1953.
37.0 39.3
22.3 21.1
14.0 11.9
8.5
23.0
27.7
15.7 14.4
7.5
4.8 1.4
14.0
11.6
6.6 6.7
6.5
7.1
7.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1953 1964 1982 1990 2000 2010 2020
‰
year
Changes in brith rate,death rate, and population growth rate
at the time of the population census' year
birth rate population growth rate death rate
Population Policy in China
⚫From the establishment of China
➢The Communist Party encouraged higher childbirth rates. According to the
first population Census, the population growth rate was notably high,
reaching 23‰.
➢The Party's central leadership felt the need to formulate population policies,
emphasizing the importance of birth control measures.
⚫One-Child Policy (Implemented in 1979):
➢According to the "Constitution of the People's Republic of China," stipulates
that "both husband and wife have the duty to practice family planning."
➢“Late marriage," "late childbirth," "having fewer children," "spacing births",
and "eugenic births.“ are highly recommended.
➢To those who comply with planned birth, e.g., preferential housing allocation
in urban areas, and priority allocation of “self-retained land” in rural areas.
➢Response to non-compliance, e.g., imposing excess birth fees and reducing
spouses' wages.
5
Population Policy in China
⚫Two-Child Policy (Implemented in 2013, Revised in 2015):
➢In 2013, the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of
China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform"
determined to initiate a policy for couples where one spouse is an only child to
have two children.
➢Furthermore, in December 2015, the "Population and Family Planning Law of
the People's Republic of China" recommended that the state encourage a limit
of two children per couple.
➢To implement the policy, the government encourages the establishment of
non-profit institutions such as women's and children's hospitals, kindergartens,
etc., by private entities.
⚫Three-Child Policy (Implemented in 2021):
➢In 2021, to address long-term population dynamics, the "Decision on Promoting
Balanced and Sustainable Long-Term Development by Optimizing Birth
Policies" announced that the birth of a third child would be permitted.
6
Population Simulation ⚫Population simulation:
➢According to Chen (2006)
predictions, the proportion of
children aged 0-14 in China's
total population will be 15.8%
in the year 2030. From 2035
onwards, the proportion of
the elderly population in the
total population is projected
to reach 20%.
⚫The Impact:
➢An increase in labor costs.
➢Heavier burden of elderly
care.
➢ Potential decrease in the
economic growth rate.
7
Source: Cited from Chen (2006).
Pioneering
Research
2023/8/18 8
Research on Fertility
Research Objectives
Research on Chinese Fertility
Originality
Research on Fertility
⚫Psychological factors:
➢Tanaka (2009) meticulously compiled Japanese literature concerning the
trend of low birth rates in Japan. Through the examination of official
surveys conducted regularly by NIPSSR on marriage and childbirth, it is
observed that due to psychological and physical constraints related to
child-rearing, the Japanese tend to have fewer children than they desire.
➢Camussi et al. (2023) analyzed the connection between gender equality and
the challenge of low birth rates in Italy. Their study indicates that in Italy,
there's insufficient support for women to balance work and family
responsibilities, resulting in a heavy burden on women for managing family
duties. Addressing gender equality can play a crucial role as an intervention
to bridge the gap in low birth rates, emphasizing the importance of enabling
women to achieve their desired childbirth intentions.
9
Research on Fertility
⚫Economic Factors:
➢Berrington, A. & Pattaro, S. (2014) analyzed the relationship between
educational attainment, the desired number of children, and the realization
of desired family size using data from The National Child Development
Study (NCDS). Through results from a multinomial logistic regression
model, they revealed that individuals with higher educational levels desire
more children, but they tend to delay marriage, resulting in a family size
consistently smaller than their desired number of children.
➢Japaridze (2019) uses a utility model for childbirth, and household
consumption levels are compared. Lower-income households tend to
imitate higher-income ones, affecting the decision on the number of
children based on utility from both childbirth and consumption. Using ACS
2010 data, the study found that areas with large income inequality tend to
have lower birth rates.
10
Research on Fertility
⚫Economic and psychological factors:
➢Gauthier, A. H., & Philipov, D. (2008) used descriptive statistics to explore
the link between low birth rates in the EU and factors like the Human
Development Index and Gender Equality Index. Analyzing data from the
European Demographic Data Sheet 2008, they found higher economic
development and gender equality are associated with higher birth rates in
the EU.
➢Vignoli et al. (2020) utilized data from the European Social Survey in 2004
and 2010 to investigate the impact of precarious employment on
individuals' childbirth intentions and whether this impact is mediated by
subjective well-being. Using logistic models, the results indicated that
precarious employment has a negative impact on individuals' childbirth
intentions. Furthermore, irrespective of individuals' employment status,
those reporting higher levels of happiness were more likely to become
parents a few years later.
11
Research on Chinese Fertility
⚫Wang・ Wang (2016) :
➢Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2010 and similar sources,
the study employs descriptive statistics to analyze the gap between the
desired and actual number of children among Chinese individuals. Chinese
people desire around 1.86 children, but actually have about 1.68 children on
average. Policy factors contribute to the gap, and economic and health
considerations also limit actual child numbers.
⚫Song・Hu (2022):
➢The Renmin University of China's Population and Development Research
Center conducted a 2021 national survey titled "Research on Birth
Mechanism and Birth Support in the Context of Low Birth Rates and
Parenting Ages." Using this data, the study used Poisson models to analyze
factors influencing birth intentions. Over 57% of sampled couples desired
two children, while about 30% wished for one child. Based on these findings,
they suggest that the Chinese government could use stable birth intentions
and economic support to enhance birth rates.
12
Research Objectives
⚫Background:
➢For years, China has controlled population growth through stringent
policy restrictions. However, there is now a need to shift the population
policy.
➢As observed from birth rates, the actual number of children people
have is low. However, birth intentions remain relatively stable. If these
intentions could be realized, it is believed that it could mitigate aging to
a certain extent.
⚫Objective:
➢This study aims to elucidate which factors, considering China's current
population policy, influence the gap between desired and actual
number of children, and analyze obstacles encountered in birth
behavior, in order to consider appropriate policies.
13
Originality
⚫Originality:
➢Building upon
previous research, it
is necessary to
consider both
economic and
psychological factors
simultaneously when
addressing the gap.
➢Taking into account
economic factors
such as economic
uncertainty and
income inequality, as
well as leveraging
psychological factors
like happiness.
14
Gap
Source: Adapted from Vignoli et al. (2020)
Gender
equality
Happiness
Psychological
factors
Income
Inequality
Unemployme
nt Rate
Economic
uncertainty
Economic
factors
Employment
Status
Research Data
15
Microdata
Data Process
Definition of Variables
Distribution of Achieve
Microdata
⚫Full Name: Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS)
⚫Providing Institution: National Survey Research Center at Renmin
University of China, NSRC.
⚫Start Date: Since 2003, conducting cross-sectional surveys on
approximately 10,000 households in various provinces, municipalities, and
autonomous regions in China.
⚫Study Period: This research utilizes data from the years 2010, 2012, 2013,
2015, 2017, and 2018, considering the sampling design and the availability
of variables for the study.
Note: The survey design differs between the years 2003-2006 and after 2010.
16
Data Process
⚫Sample Limitations:
➢Individual ages are restricted to those between 17 and 45 years old.
➢Due to notably small sample sizes, cases with six or more children are
excluded.
➢Similarly, due to significantly small sample sizes, cases with desired
child numbers of six or more are excluded.
➢For income, cases with responses "not applicable," "unknown," or
"refused to answer" are excluded.
➢Education levels are categorized into five levels。
➢Missing values are removed for other variables.
17
Definition of Variables
⚫Achieve:
➢In this study, referring to Morgan, S. & Rackin, H. (2010), the following indicator is
constructed:
achieve=1 if intension>actual children
=2 if intension=actual children
=3 if intension<actual children
⚫Income Inequality:
➢Based on Japaridze (2019), this study constructs an income inequality indicator for
provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions.
inequality= Τ
𝐼90 𝐼50 , 𝐼90 → top 90% of individuals’ income
𝐼50 → bottom 50% of individuals’ income
⚫Economic Uncertainty:
➢Drawing from Blom, N. & Perelli, B. (2021), this study considers the provincial
unemployment rate where individuals reside as representative of the uncertainty
individuals face in their labor market.
➢Furthermore, within CGSS, individuals' employment status is inquired. In this study,
non-agricultural employment is defined as 1, agricultural employment as 2, and
unemployment as 3.
18
Definition of Variables
⚫Happiness:
➢Survey Question: Overall, do you feel happy with your life?
➢Survey Response: Extremely Unhappy→1
Relatively Unhappy→2
Neither Happy nor Unhappy→3
Relatively Happy→4
Extremely Happy→5。
➢Happiness and life satisfaction are commonly used indicators when
measuring subjective well-being, and there is consistently a positive
relationship between the two (Diener, 2000; Lin et al, 2010; Badri et al, 2022).
Since life satisfaction was not included in the CGSS survey, in this study,
happiness is considered to represent individuals' subjective well-being.
19
Definition of Variables
⚫Gender Equality:
➢Survey Question: Do you agree that men should prioritize their careers while women
should prioritize family?
➢Survey Responses: Extremely Disagree → 1
Relatively Disagree →2
Neither Agree nor Disagree → 3
Relatively Agree → 4
Extremely Agree → 5。
⚫Regional Division:
➢In this study, referencing the China National Bureau of Statistics, the regions are
divided into 4 categories.
➢Eastern → 1 Central → 2 Western → 3 Northeast → 4
⚫Educational Level Division:
➢Illiterate → 0 Primary → 1 High School → 2 Associate → 3 Bachelor → 4
20
Distribution of Achieve
⚫Under:
➢Younger individuals are less
likely to achieve their desired
number of children, but as age
increases, this discrepancy
tends to decrease.
⚫Achieved:
➢As age increases, the
proportion of individuals who
achieve their desired number
of children tends to increase.
⚫Over:
➢With increasing age, the
proportion of individuals
exceeding their desired
number of children also tends
to increase.
21
86.62
69.66
44.99
38.98 37.23
10.65
27.54
49.29
52.35
49.49
2.73 2.79
5.72
8.67
13.28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
17-24 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-60
The percent of different achievement at different age range
under achieved over
Distribution of Achieve
➢Comparing before and after the two-
child policy, the proportion of cases
where the desired number of children
is not achieved has slightly decreased.
➢The gap shows relatively minor
fluctuations before and after the two-
child policy implementation.
22
Number of Actual Children Freq. Percent Freq. Percent
0 3,992 23.65 2,334 29.36
1 7,943 47.05 3,113 39.16
2 4,209 24.93 2,136 26.87
3 632 3.74 311 3.91
4 88 0.52 49 0.62
5 19 0.11 7 0.09
Total 16,883 100 7,950 100
one-child policy two-child policy
Desired Child Number Freq. Percent Freq. Percent
0 286 1.69 290 3.65
1 4,331 25.65 1,890 23.77
2 11,180 66.22 5,133 64.57
3 843 4.99 488 6.14
4 200 1.18 119 1.5
5 43 0.25 30 0.38
Total 16,883 100 7,950 100
one-child policy two-child policy
Achieve Freq. Percent Freq. Percent
1 9,258 54.84 4,232 53.23
2 6,857 40.61 3,330 41.89
3 768 4.55 388 4.88
Total 16,883 100 7,950 100
one-child policy two-child policy
Empirical Analysis
23
Model
Regression Results
Model
24
⚫ Ordinal Logistic Regression Analysis:
➢ 𝑃 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖 = 1 𝑥𝑖 = 𝐹(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 − 𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽)
𝑃 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖 = 2 𝑥𝑖 = 𝐹 𝑐𝑢𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽 − 𝐹(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 − 𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽)
𝑃 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖 = 3 𝑥𝑖 = 1 − 𝐹(𝑐𝑢𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽)
➢ 𝐹𝑐1 = 𝐹 𝑐𝑢𝑡1 − 𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽 =
𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 −𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽)
1+𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 −𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽)
𝐹𝑐2 = 𝐹 𝑐𝑢𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽 =
𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡2 −𝑥𝑖
′
𝛽)
1+𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡2 −𝑥𝑖
′𝛽)
⚫ 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡: Categorization of Achieve 𝑖: Surveyed Individuals
⚫ 𝑥 :Vector of Explanatory Variables 𝛽 :Vector of Coefficients
Regression Results→One-child policy
25
The income inequality coefficient is
positive and significant at the 5% level.
Agriculturists more likely to achieve
desired children than unemployed.
Ordered logistic regression Number of obs = 16,883
LR chi2(23) = 3727.44
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -12250.41 Pseudo R2 = 0.1320
achieve Coefficient Std.err. z P>|z|
income inequality 0.0597 0.0152 3.9300 0.0000 0.0300 0.0895
work
1 0.0259 0.0576 0.4500 0.6520 -0.0869 0.1388
2 0.2328 0.0632 3.6900 0.0000 0.1090 0.3566
unemployment rate -0.0440 0.0307 -1.4300 0.1520 -0.1043 0.0162
expenditure ratios on education -4.0706 0.8586 -4.7400 0.0000 -5.7534 -2.3879
expenditure ratios on health -5.8142 1.7773 -3.2700 0.0010 -9.2976 -2.3308
happiness -0.0227 0.0208 -1.0900 0.2770 -0.0635 0.0182
gender equality
5 0.0616 0.0826 0.7500 0.4560 -0.1003 0.2234
4 -0.0162 0.0624 -0.2600 0.7950 -0.1384 0.1061
2 -0.0024 0.0578 -0.0400 0.9670 -0.1157 0.1109
1 0.0700 0.0669 1.0500 0.2960 -0.0612 0.2011
[95% conf. interval]
→regression outcome connect with next silde
The expenditure ratios on education and
health coefficient are both negative and
significant at the 5% level.
Regression Results→One-child policy
26
female 0.2820 0.0353 7.9900 0.0000 0.2128 0.3512
age 0.0926 0.0025 36.3600 0.0000 0.0876 0.0976
huji(urban=1) -0.3505 0.0435 -8.0500 0.0000 -0.4359 -0.2651
edulevel
1 -0.2100 0.0942 -2.2300 0.0260 -0.3946 -0.0254
2 -0.6085 0.1035 -5.8800 0.0000 -0.8114 -0.4055
3 -0.9425 0.1129 -8.3500 0.0000 -1.1638 -0.7212
4 -1.1984 0.1149 -10.4300 0.0000 -1.4235 -0.9733
area
2 0.1370 0.0624 2.1900 0.0280 0.0146 0.2594
3 -0.0352 0.0685 -0.5100 0.6070 -0.1694 0.0990
4 0.1088 0.0680 1.6000 0.1090 -0.0244 0.2420
income -0.0205 0.0066 -3.1200 0.0020 -0.0334 -0.0076
GDP per capita -0.3169 0.0608 -5.2100 0.0000 -0.4361 -0.1977
/cut1 -7.4381 1.8752 -11.1134 -3.7628
/cut2 -4.2065 1.8743 -7.8801 -0.5328
Regression Results→Two-child policy
27
The income inequality coefficient is
positive and significant at the 5% level.
Ordered logistic regression Number of obs = 7,950
LR chi2(23) = 1375.66 LR chi2(23) = 1375.66
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Log likelihood = -6049.93 Pseudo R2 = 0.1021
achieve Coefficient Std.err. z P>|z|
income inequality 0.0751 0.0164 4.5800 0.0000 0.0430 0.1073
work
1 -0.1097 0.0743 -1.4800 0.1400 -0.2553 0.0358
2 -0.0518 0.0970 -0.5300 0.5940 -0.2419 0.1384
unemployment rate 0.0254 0.0394 0.6500 0.5190 -0.0518 0.1027
expenditure ratios on education -1.6175 2.0864 -0.7800 0.4380 -5.7067 2.4717
expenditure ratios on health 0.6490 5.0657 0.1300 0.8980 -9.2796 10.5776
happiness -0.0009 0.0309 -0.0300 0.9770 -0.0614 0.0597
gender equality
5 0.3266 0.0999 3.2700 0.0010 0.1308 0.5224
4 0.1104 0.0875 1.2600 0.2070 -0.0612 0.2819
2 0.1672 0.0876 1.9100 0.0560 -0.0045 0.3388
1 0.2757 0.1100 2.5100 0.0120 0.0602 0.4912
→regression outcome connect with next silde
[95% conf. interval]
Both individuals with traditional views and
those without are more likely to achieve
fertility intention.
Regression Results→Two-child policy
28
female 0.2820 0.0353 7.9900 0.0000 0.2128 0.3512
age 0.0806 0.0037 21.8600 0.0000 0.0734 0.0878
huji(urban=1) 0.2709 0.0505 5.3700 0.0000 0.1719 0.3698
edulevel
1 0.1846 0.1281 1.4400 0.1500 -0.0665 0.4357
2 -0.2327 0.1361 -1.7100 0.0870 -0.4995 0.0341
3 -0.5387 0.1453 -3.7100 0.0000 -0.8235 -0.2539
4 -0.7327 0.1436 -5.1000 0.0000 -1.0143 -0.4512
area
2 -0.0521 0.1188 -0.4400 0.6610 -0.2849 0.1807
3 -0.2112 0.1256 -1.6800 0.0930 -0.4574 0.0349
4 -0.0144 0.1471 -0.1000 0.9220 -0.3028 0.2739
income -0.0112 0.0078 -1.4300 0.1510 -0.0266 0.0041
GDP per capita 0.0681 0.1513 0.4500 0.6530 -0.2284 0.3647
/cut1 4.8823 4.7724 -4.4714 14.2360
/cut2 8.0204 4.7732 -1.3349 17.3757
Conclusion
29
Summary
Future Research Perspectives
Policy Considerations
Summary
➢Income Inequality: Despite policy changes, higher income inequality increases the
likelihood of achieving fertility intention. However, as income inequality widens, there
is a possibility that the desired number of children may decrease.
➢Employment Status: Individuals engaged in agricultural work during the one-child
policy period are more likely to achieve fertility intention compared to the
unemployed. Although the unemployment rate is not statistically significant, the
expansion of economic uncertainty tends to hinder individuals from achieving fertility
intention.
➢Psychological Factors: The significance of happiness is not observed. During the
two-child policy period, regarding gender equality, both individuals with traditional
views and those without are more likely to achieve fertility intention. A deeper
investigation is necessary to understand the underlying factors.
➢Government Expenditure: During the one-child policy period, higher expenditure
ratios on education and health are associated with a lower likelihood of achieving
fertility intention. It is possible that higher expenditure ratios on education and health
lead to greater intention and allocation of support for other children.
30
Summary
➢Hukou: During the period of the one-child policy, individuals with urban
hukou were less likely to achieve their fertility intention. However, during
the two-child policy period, individuals with urban hukou are more likely to
achieve their fertility intention. It is possible that the fertility constraint in
urban areas was stricter than in rural areas during the one-child policy
period.
➢Gender: Regardless of policy changes, women are more likely than men to
achieve their desired number of children. This could suggest that women
tend to have smaller desired numbers of children compared to men.
➢Economic Development: During the one-child policy period, as individual
income and GDP per capita increase, individuals are less likely to achieve
their fertility intention. In a wealthier environment, there is a possibility that
individuals' desired number of children may increase.
31
Policy Considerations
➢Regarding economic development, during the one-child policy period, higher
individual income and regional economic growth may be associated with a
greater fertility intention. Reversing policy restrictions and further economic
development could enhance individuals' desired number of children and
potentially lead to population growth.
➢In terms of economic uncertainty, during the one-child policy period,
unemployed individuals may have a harder time realizing their desired
number of children. Further strengthening of unemployment protection is
necessary, and the provision of employment support and training could
potentially help individuals find new jobs, creating the economic capacity to
achieve the desired number of children.
➢Regarding expenditures on education and health, they reflect societal well-
being, and as societal well-being increases, there is a possibility of an
increase in the desired number of children. Further increases in societal well-
being can enhance individuals' desired number of children, potentially leading
to population growth.
➢During the two-child policy period, individuals with rural hukou might not
have realized their desired number of children. I believe that policy-related
and economic support for births in rural areas is necessary. 32
Future Research Perspectives
➢In this study, it was hypothesized that economic factors and psychological factors do
not influence each other, but there is a possibility that economic factors and
psychological factors are related. Discovering the correlation between these two
could potentially provide a more accurate reflection of the obstacles encountered in
birth-related behaviors.
➢The specific conditions of employment were divided too broadly in this study.
To conduct a more detailed analysis based on specific employment statuses,
individuals with different employment situations can be accurately reflected
in terms of the obstacles they encounter in birth-related behaviors.
➢Referring to previous research, the utility of using the ideal number of children as an
explanatory variable will be discussed in future discussions.
33
Reference
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2023/8/18 36
Appendix
37
Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max
achiv
1 16,883 0.5484 0.4977 0 1
2 16,883 0.4061 0.4911 0 1
3 16,883 0.0455 0.2084 0 1
income inequality 16,883 3.5835 1.2383 0.3429 10
work
1 16,883 0.6281 0.4833 0 1
2 16,883 0.1811 0.3851 0 1
3 16,883 0.1908 0.3929 0 1
unemployment rate 16,883 3.4008 0.6744 1.21 4.5
expenditure ratios on education 16,883 0.1724 0.0250 0.0989 0.2222
expenditure ratios on health 16,883 0.0702 0.0128 0.0439 0.1056
happiness 16,883 3.8297 0.8056 1 5
gender equality
5 16,883 0.0716 0.2578 0 1
4 16,883 0.2418 0.4282 0 1
3 16,883 0.1088 0.3114 0 1
2 16,883 0.4171 0.4931 0 1
1 16,883 0.1606 0.3672 0 1
Descriptive statistics of the one-child period
Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max
gender
male 16,883 0.4867 0.4998 0 1
female 16,883 0.5133 0.4998 0 1
age 16,883 34.0793 7.5468 17 45
huji(urban=1)
rural 16,883 0.5545 0.4970 0 1
urban 16,883 0.4455 0.4970 0 1
edulevel
0 16,883 0.0327 0.1778 0 1
1 16,883 0.4919 0.4999 0 1
2 16,883 0.2085 0.4062 0 1
3 16,883 0.1223 0.3276 0 1
4 16,883 0.1446 0.3518 0 1
area
1 16,883 0.3669 0.4820 0 1
2 16,883 0.2342 0.4235 0 1
3 16,883 0.2655 0.4416 0 1
4 16,883 0.1334 0.3401 0 1
income 16,883 3.9520 3.4358 -4.8126 11.4541
GDP per capita 16,883 29.0581 0.4635 27.9108 30.0004
Appendix
38
Descriptive statistics of the two-child period
Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max
achiv
1 7,950 0.5323 0.4990 0 1
2 7,950 0.4189 0.4934 0 1
3 7,950 0.0488 0.2155 0 1
income inequality 7,950 4.4088 1.8796 2.0000 10
work
1 7,950 0.6618 0.4731 0 1
2 7,950 0.1004 0.3005 0 1
3 7,950 0.2379 0.4258 0 1
unemployment rate 7,950 3.0854 0.7330 1.4 4.2
expenditure ratios on education 7,950 0.1603 0.0266 0.1099 0.2041
expenditure ratios on health 7,950 0.0811 0.0143 0.0546 0.1044
happiness 7,950 3.9005 0.7795 1 5
gender equality
5 7,950 0.1526 0.3596 0 1
4 7,950 0.3419 0.4744 0 1
3 7,950 0.0994 0.2992 0 1
2 7,950 0.3153 0.4647 0 1
1 7,950 0.0908 0.2874 0 1
Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max
gender
male 7,950 0.4669 0.4989 0 1
female 7,950 0.5331 0.4989 0 1
age 7,950 33.4226 7.6251 18 45
huji(urban=1)
rural 7,950 0.5499 0.4975 0 1
urban 7,950 0.4501 0.4975 0 1
edulevel
0 7,950 0.0350 0.1837 0 1
1 7,950 0.3925 0.4883 0 1
2 7,950 0.2081 0.4059 0 1
3 7,950 0.1367 0.3436 0 1
4 7,950 0.2278 0.4194 0 1
area
1 7,950 0.4328 0.4955 0 1
2 7,950 0.2057 0.4042 0 1
3 7,950 0.2410 0.4277 0 1
4 7,950 0.1205 0.3256 0 1
income 7,950 3.8798 4.1223 -4.8700 11.3572
GDP per capita 7,950 29.5091 0.4456 28.6751 30.2755

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23.8.24_Analyzing the Character of Income Inequality in the Relationship Between Happiness and Fertility Rate.pdf

  • 1. 1 Analyzing the Character of Income Inequality in the Relationship Between Happiness and Fertility Rate ——the Case of China Yapeng Li Ritsumeikan University Graduate School of Economics 2023.8.24
  • 2. Structure of the report ⚫Demographic Transition in China ⚫Pioneering Research ⚫Research Data ⚫Empirical Analysis ⚫Conclusion 2
  • 3. Demographic Transition in China 3 Fluctuations of Birth Rate in China Population Policy in China Population Simulation
  • 4. Fluctuations of Birth Rate in China ⚫Before the second population census(1964) : ➢The birth rate remains at a high level, while the death rate is decreasing. The population growth rate is on the rise. ⚫After the second population census(1964) : ➢Birth rates begin to decline. Death rates decline until the third population census (1982), then remain relatively stable. Overall, population growth rates decrease. 4 Source: Compiled by the author from "China Statistical Yearbook" (various editions). Note: The horizontal axis indicates the years of each population census, with the First National Population Census commencing in 1953. 37.0 39.3 22.3 21.1 14.0 11.9 8.5 23.0 27.7 15.7 14.4 7.5 4.8 1.4 14.0 11.6 6.6 6.7 6.5 7.1 7.1 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 1953 1964 1982 1990 2000 2010 2020 ‰ year Changes in brith rate,death rate, and population growth rate at the time of the population census' year birth rate population growth rate death rate
  • 5. Population Policy in China ⚫From the establishment of China ➢The Communist Party encouraged higher childbirth rates. According to the first population Census, the population growth rate was notably high, reaching 23‰. ➢The Party's central leadership felt the need to formulate population policies, emphasizing the importance of birth control measures. ⚫One-Child Policy (Implemented in 1979): ➢According to the "Constitution of the People's Republic of China," stipulates that "both husband and wife have the duty to practice family planning." ➢“Late marriage," "late childbirth," "having fewer children," "spacing births", and "eugenic births.“ are highly recommended. ➢To those who comply with planned birth, e.g., preferential housing allocation in urban areas, and priority allocation of “self-retained land” in rural areas. ➢Response to non-compliance, e.g., imposing excess birth fees and reducing spouses' wages. 5
  • 6. Population Policy in China ⚫Two-Child Policy (Implemented in 2013, Revised in 2015): ➢In 2013, the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform" determined to initiate a policy for couples where one spouse is an only child to have two children. ➢Furthermore, in December 2015, the "Population and Family Planning Law of the People's Republic of China" recommended that the state encourage a limit of two children per couple. ➢To implement the policy, the government encourages the establishment of non-profit institutions such as women's and children's hospitals, kindergartens, etc., by private entities. ⚫Three-Child Policy (Implemented in 2021): ➢In 2021, to address long-term population dynamics, the "Decision on Promoting Balanced and Sustainable Long-Term Development by Optimizing Birth Policies" announced that the birth of a third child would be permitted. 6
  • 7. Population Simulation ⚫Population simulation: ➢According to Chen (2006) predictions, the proportion of children aged 0-14 in China's total population will be 15.8% in the year 2030. From 2035 onwards, the proportion of the elderly population in the total population is projected to reach 20%. ⚫The Impact: ➢An increase in labor costs. ➢Heavier burden of elderly care. ➢ Potential decrease in the economic growth rate. 7 Source: Cited from Chen (2006).
  • 8. Pioneering Research 2023/8/18 8 Research on Fertility Research Objectives Research on Chinese Fertility Originality
  • 9. Research on Fertility ⚫Psychological factors: ➢Tanaka (2009) meticulously compiled Japanese literature concerning the trend of low birth rates in Japan. Through the examination of official surveys conducted regularly by NIPSSR on marriage and childbirth, it is observed that due to psychological and physical constraints related to child-rearing, the Japanese tend to have fewer children than they desire. ➢Camussi et al. (2023) analyzed the connection between gender equality and the challenge of low birth rates in Italy. Their study indicates that in Italy, there's insufficient support for women to balance work and family responsibilities, resulting in a heavy burden on women for managing family duties. Addressing gender equality can play a crucial role as an intervention to bridge the gap in low birth rates, emphasizing the importance of enabling women to achieve their desired childbirth intentions. 9
  • 10. Research on Fertility ⚫Economic Factors: ➢Berrington, A. & Pattaro, S. (2014) analyzed the relationship between educational attainment, the desired number of children, and the realization of desired family size using data from The National Child Development Study (NCDS). Through results from a multinomial logistic regression model, they revealed that individuals with higher educational levels desire more children, but they tend to delay marriage, resulting in a family size consistently smaller than their desired number of children. ➢Japaridze (2019) uses a utility model for childbirth, and household consumption levels are compared. Lower-income households tend to imitate higher-income ones, affecting the decision on the number of children based on utility from both childbirth and consumption. Using ACS 2010 data, the study found that areas with large income inequality tend to have lower birth rates. 10
  • 11. Research on Fertility ⚫Economic and psychological factors: ➢Gauthier, A. H., & Philipov, D. (2008) used descriptive statistics to explore the link between low birth rates in the EU and factors like the Human Development Index and Gender Equality Index. Analyzing data from the European Demographic Data Sheet 2008, they found higher economic development and gender equality are associated with higher birth rates in the EU. ➢Vignoli et al. (2020) utilized data from the European Social Survey in 2004 and 2010 to investigate the impact of precarious employment on individuals' childbirth intentions and whether this impact is mediated by subjective well-being. Using logistic models, the results indicated that precarious employment has a negative impact on individuals' childbirth intentions. Furthermore, irrespective of individuals' employment status, those reporting higher levels of happiness were more likely to become parents a few years later. 11
  • 12. Research on Chinese Fertility ⚫Wang・ Wang (2016) : ➢Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2010 and similar sources, the study employs descriptive statistics to analyze the gap between the desired and actual number of children among Chinese individuals. Chinese people desire around 1.86 children, but actually have about 1.68 children on average. Policy factors contribute to the gap, and economic and health considerations also limit actual child numbers. ⚫Song・Hu (2022): ➢The Renmin University of China's Population and Development Research Center conducted a 2021 national survey titled "Research on Birth Mechanism and Birth Support in the Context of Low Birth Rates and Parenting Ages." Using this data, the study used Poisson models to analyze factors influencing birth intentions. Over 57% of sampled couples desired two children, while about 30% wished for one child. Based on these findings, they suggest that the Chinese government could use stable birth intentions and economic support to enhance birth rates. 12
  • 13. Research Objectives ⚫Background: ➢For years, China has controlled population growth through stringent policy restrictions. However, there is now a need to shift the population policy. ➢As observed from birth rates, the actual number of children people have is low. However, birth intentions remain relatively stable. If these intentions could be realized, it is believed that it could mitigate aging to a certain extent. ⚫Objective: ➢This study aims to elucidate which factors, considering China's current population policy, influence the gap between desired and actual number of children, and analyze obstacles encountered in birth behavior, in order to consider appropriate policies. 13
  • 14. Originality ⚫Originality: ➢Building upon previous research, it is necessary to consider both economic and psychological factors simultaneously when addressing the gap. ➢Taking into account economic factors such as economic uncertainty and income inequality, as well as leveraging psychological factors like happiness. 14 Gap Source: Adapted from Vignoli et al. (2020) Gender equality Happiness Psychological factors Income Inequality Unemployme nt Rate Economic uncertainty Economic factors Employment Status
  • 15. Research Data 15 Microdata Data Process Definition of Variables Distribution of Achieve
  • 16. Microdata ⚫Full Name: Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) ⚫Providing Institution: National Survey Research Center at Renmin University of China, NSRC. ⚫Start Date: Since 2003, conducting cross-sectional surveys on approximately 10,000 households in various provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China. ⚫Study Period: This research utilizes data from the years 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2018, considering the sampling design and the availability of variables for the study. Note: The survey design differs between the years 2003-2006 and after 2010. 16
  • 17. Data Process ⚫Sample Limitations: ➢Individual ages are restricted to those between 17 and 45 years old. ➢Due to notably small sample sizes, cases with six or more children are excluded. ➢Similarly, due to significantly small sample sizes, cases with desired child numbers of six or more are excluded. ➢For income, cases with responses "not applicable," "unknown," or "refused to answer" are excluded. ➢Education levels are categorized into five levels。 ➢Missing values are removed for other variables. 17
  • 18. Definition of Variables ⚫Achieve: ➢In this study, referring to Morgan, S. & Rackin, H. (2010), the following indicator is constructed: achieve=1 if intension>actual children =2 if intension=actual children =3 if intension<actual children ⚫Income Inequality: ➢Based on Japaridze (2019), this study constructs an income inequality indicator for provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. inequality= Τ 𝐼90 𝐼50 , 𝐼90 → top 90% of individuals’ income 𝐼50 → bottom 50% of individuals’ income ⚫Economic Uncertainty: ➢Drawing from Blom, N. & Perelli, B. (2021), this study considers the provincial unemployment rate where individuals reside as representative of the uncertainty individuals face in their labor market. ➢Furthermore, within CGSS, individuals' employment status is inquired. In this study, non-agricultural employment is defined as 1, agricultural employment as 2, and unemployment as 3. 18
  • 19. Definition of Variables ⚫Happiness: ➢Survey Question: Overall, do you feel happy with your life? ➢Survey Response: Extremely Unhappy→1 Relatively Unhappy→2 Neither Happy nor Unhappy→3 Relatively Happy→4 Extremely Happy→5。 ➢Happiness and life satisfaction are commonly used indicators when measuring subjective well-being, and there is consistently a positive relationship between the two (Diener, 2000; Lin et al, 2010; Badri et al, 2022). Since life satisfaction was not included in the CGSS survey, in this study, happiness is considered to represent individuals' subjective well-being. 19
  • 20. Definition of Variables ⚫Gender Equality: ➢Survey Question: Do you agree that men should prioritize their careers while women should prioritize family? ➢Survey Responses: Extremely Disagree → 1 Relatively Disagree →2 Neither Agree nor Disagree → 3 Relatively Agree → 4 Extremely Agree → 5。 ⚫Regional Division: ➢In this study, referencing the China National Bureau of Statistics, the regions are divided into 4 categories. ➢Eastern → 1 Central → 2 Western → 3 Northeast → 4 ⚫Educational Level Division: ➢Illiterate → 0 Primary → 1 High School → 2 Associate → 3 Bachelor → 4 20
  • 21. Distribution of Achieve ⚫Under: ➢Younger individuals are less likely to achieve their desired number of children, but as age increases, this discrepancy tends to decrease. ⚫Achieved: ➢As age increases, the proportion of individuals who achieve their desired number of children tends to increase. ⚫Over: ➢With increasing age, the proportion of individuals exceeding their desired number of children also tends to increase. 21 86.62 69.66 44.99 38.98 37.23 10.65 27.54 49.29 52.35 49.49 2.73 2.79 5.72 8.67 13.28 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 17-24 25-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 The percent of different achievement at different age range under achieved over
  • 22. Distribution of Achieve ➢Comparing before and after the two- child policy, the proportion of cases where the desired number of children is not achieved has slightly decreased. ➢The gap shows relatively minor fluctuations before and after the two- child policy implementation. 22 Number of Actual Children Freq. Percent Freq. Percent 0 3,992 23.65 2,334 29.36 1 7,943 47.05 3,113 39.16 2 4,209 24.93 2,136 26.87 3 632 3.74 311 3.91 4 88 0.52 49 0.62 5 19 0.11 7 0.09 Total 16,883 100 7,950 100 one-child policy two-child policy Desired Child Number Freq. Percent Freq. Percent 0 286 1.69 290 3.65 1 4,331 25.65 1,890 23.77 2 11,180 66.22 5,133 64.57 3 843 4.99 488 6.14 4 200 1.18 119 1.5 5 43 0.25 30 0.38 Total 16,883 100 7,950 100 one-child policy two-child policy Achieve Freq. Percent Freq. Percent 1 9,258 54.84 4,232 53.23 2 6,857 40.61 3,330 41.89 3 768 4.55 388 4.88 Total 16,883 100 7,950 100 one-child policy two-child policy
  • 24. Model 24 ⚫ Ordinal Logistic Regression Analysis: ➢ 𝑃 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖 = 1 𝑥𝑖 = 𝐹(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 − 𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽) 𝑃 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖 = 2 𝑥𝑖 = 𝐹 𝑐𝑢𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽 − 𝐹(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 − 𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽) 𝑃 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖 = 3 𝑥𝑖 = 1 − 𝐹(𝑐𝑢𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽) ➢ 𝐹𝑐1 = 𝐹 𝑐𝑢𝑡1 − 𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 −𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽) 1+𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡1 −𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽) 𝐹𝑐2 = 𝐹 𝑐𝑢𝑡2 − 𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡2 −𝑥𝑖 ′ 𝛽) 1+𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝑐𝑢𝑡2 −𝑥𝑖 ′𝛽) ⚫ 𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡: Categorization of Achieve 𝑖: Surveyed Individuals ⚫ 𝑥 :Vector of Explanatory Variables 𝛽 :Vector of Coefficients
  • 25. Regression Results→One-child policy 25 The income inequality coefficient is positive and significant at the 5% level. Agriculturists more likely to achieve desired children than unemployed. Ordered logistic regression Number of obs = 16,883 LR chi2(23) = 3727.44 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -12250.41 Pseudo R2 = 0.1320 achieve Coefficient Std.err. z P>|z| income inequality 0.0597 0.0152 3.9300 0.0000 0.0300 0.0895 work 1 0.0259 0.0576 0.4500 0.6520 -0.0869 0.1388 2 0.2328 0.0632 3.6900 0.0000 0.1090 0.3566 unemployment rate -0.0440 0.0307 -1.4300 0.1520 -0.1043 0.0162 expenditure ratios on education -4.0706 0.8586 -4.7400 0.0000 -5.7534 -2.3879 expenditure ratios on health -5.8142 1.7773 -3.2700 0.0010 -9.2976 -2.3308 happiness -0.0227 0.0208 -1.0900 0.2770 -0.0635 0.0182 gender equality 5 0.0616 0.0826 0.7500 0.4560 -0.1003 0.2234 4 -0.0162 0.0624 -0.2600 0.7950 -0.1384 0.1061 2 -0.0024 0.0578 -0.0400 0.9670 -0.1157 0.1109 1 0.0700 0.0669 1.0500 0.2960 -0.0612 0.2011 [95% conf. interval] →regression outcome connect with next silde The expenditure ratios on education and health coefficient are both negative and significant at the 5% level.
  • 26. Regression Results→One-child policy 26 female 0.2820 0.0353 7.9900 0.0000 0.2128 0.3512 age 0.0926 0.0025 36.3600 0.0000 0.0876 0.0976 huji(urban=1) -0.3505 0.0435 -8.0500 0.0000 -0.4359 -0.2651 edulevel 1 -0.2100 0.0942 -2.2300 0.0260 -0.3946 -0.0254 2 -0.6085 0.1035 -5.8800 0.0000 -0.8114 -0.4055 3 -0.9425 0.1129 -8.3500 0.0000 -1.1638 -0.7212 4 -1.1984 0.1149 -10.4300 0.0000 -1.4235 -0.9733 area 2 0.1370 0.0624 2.1900 0.0280 0.0146 0.2594 3 -0.0352 0.0685 -0.5100 0.6070 -0.1694 0.0990 4 0.1088 0.0680 1.6000 0.1090 -0.0244 0.2420 income -0.0205 0.0066 -3.1200 0.0020 -0.0334 -0.0076 GDP per capita -0.3169 0.0608 -5.2100 0.0000 -0.4361 -0.1977 /cut1 -7.4381 1.8752 -11.1134 -3.7628 /cut2 -4.2065 1.8743 -7.8801 -0.5328
  • 27. Regression Results→Two-child policy 27 The income inequality coefficient is positive and significant at the 5% level. Ordered logistic regression Number of obs = 7,950 LR chi2(23) = 1375.66 LR chi2(23) = 1375.66 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Log likelihood = -6049.93 Pseudo R2 = 0.1021 achieve Coefficient Std.err. z P>|z| income inequality 0.0751 0.0164 4.5800 0.0000 0.0430 0.1073 work 1 -0.1097 0.0743 -1.4800 0.1400 -0.2553 0.0358 2 -0.0518 0.0970 -0.5300 0.5940 -0.2419 0.1384 unemployment rate 0.0254 0.0394 0.6500 0.5190 -0.0518 0.1027 expenditure ratios on education -1.6175 2.0864 -0.7800 0.4380 -5.7067 2.4717 expenditure ratios on health 0.6490 5.0657 0.1300 0.8980 -9.2796 10.5776 happiness -0.0009 0.0309 -0.0300 0.9770 -0.0614 0.0597 gender equality 5 0.3266 0.0999 3.2700 0.0010 0.1308 0.5224 4 0.1104 0.0875 1.2600 0.2070 -0.0612 0.2819 2 0.1672 0.0876 1.9100 0.0560 -0.0045 0.3388 1 0.2757 0.1100 2.5100 0.0120 0.0602 0.4912 →regression outcome connect with next silde [95% conf. interval] Both individuals with traditional views and those without are more likely to achieve fertility intention.
  • 28. Regression Results→Two-child policy 28 female 0.2820 0.0353 7.9900 0.0000 0.2128 0.3512 age 0.0806 0.0037 21.8600 0.0000 0.0734 0.0878 huji(urban=1) 0.2709 0.0505 5.3700 0.0000 0.1719 0.3698 edulevel 1 0.1846 0.1281 1.4400 0.1500 -0.0665 0.4357 2 -0.2327 0.1361 -1.7100 0.0870 -0.4995 0.0341 3 -0.5387 0.1453 -3.7100 0.0000 -0.8235 -0.2539 4 -0.7327 0.1436 -5.1000 0.0000 -1.0143 -0.4512 area 2 -0.0521 0.1188 -0.4400 0.6610 -0.2849 0.1807 3 -0.2112 0.1256 -1.6800 0.0930 -0.4574 0.0349 4 -0.0144 0.1471 -0.1000 0.9220 -0.3028 0.2739 income -0.0112 0.0078 -1.4300 0.1510 -0.0266 0.0041 GDP per capita 0.0681 0.1513 0.4500 0.6530 -0.2284 0.3647 /cut1 4.8823 4.7724 -4.4714 14.2360 /cut2 8.0204 4.7732 -1.3349 17.3757
  • 30. Summary ➢Income Inequality: Despite policy changes, higher income inequality increases the likelihood of achieving fertility intention. However, as income inequality widens, there is a possibility that the desired number of children may decrease. ➢Employment Status: Individuals engaged in agricultural work during the one-child policy period are more likely to achieve fertility intention compared to the unemployed. Although the unemployment rate is not statistically significant, the expansion of economic uncertainty tends to hinder individuals from achieving fertility intention. ➢Psychological Factors: The significance of happiness is not observed. During the two-child policy period, regarding gender equality, both individuals with traditional views and those without are more likely to achieve fertility intention. A deeper investigation is necessary to understand the underlying factors. ➢Government Expenditure: During the one-child policy period, higher expenditure ratios on education and health are associated with a lower likelihood of achieving fertility intention. It is possible that higher expenditure ratios on education and health lead to greater intention and allocation of support for other children. 30
  • 31. Summary ➢Hukou: During the period of the one-child policy, individuals with urban hukou were less likely to achieve their fertility intention. However, during the two-child policy period, individuals with urban hukou are more likely to achieve their fertility intention. It is possible that the fertility constraint in urban areas was stricter than in rural areas during the one-child policy period. ➢Gender: Regardless of policy changes, women are more likely than men to achieve their desired number of children. This could suggest that women tend to have smaller desired numbers of children compared to men. ➢Economic Development: During the one-child policy period, as individual income and GDP per capita increase, individuals are less likely to achieve their fertility intention. In a wealthier environment, there is a possibility that individuals' desired number of children may increase. 31
  • 32. Policy Considerations ➢Regarding economic development, during the one-child policy period, higher individual income and regional economic growth may be associated with a greater fertility intention. Reversing policy restrictions and further economic development could enhance individuals' desired number of children and potentially lead to population growth. ➢In terms of economic uncertainty, during the one-child policy period, unemployed individuals may have a harder time realizing their desired number of children. Further strengthening of unemployment protection is necessary, and the provision of employment support and training could potentially help individuals find new jobs, creating the economic capacity to achieve the desired number of children. ➢Regarding expenditures on education and health, they reflect societal well- being, and as societal well-being increases, there is a possibility of an increase in the desired number of children. Further increases in societal well- being can enhance individuals' desired number of children, potentially leading to population growth. ➢During the two-child policy period, individuals with rural hukou might not have realized their desired number of children. I believe that policy-related and economic support for births in rural areas is necessary. 32
  • 33. Future Research Perspectives ➢In this study, it was hypothesized that economic factors and psychological factors do not influence each other, but there is a possibility that economic factors and psychological factors are related. Discovering the correlation between these two could potentially provide a more accurate reflection of the obstacles encountered in birth-related behaviors. ➢The specific conditions of employment were divided too broadly in this study. To conduct a more detailed analysis based on specific employment statuses, individuals with different employment situations can be accurately reflected in terms of the obstacles they encounter in birth-related behaviors. ➢Referring to previous research, the utility of using the ideal number of children as an explanatory variable will be discussed in future discussions. 33
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  • 37. Appendix 37 Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max achiv 1 16,883 0.5484 0.4977 0 1 2 16,883 0.4061 0.4911 0 1 3 16,883 0.0455 0.2084 0 1 income inequality 16,883 3.5835 1.2383 0.3429 10 work 1 16,883 0.6281 0.4833 0 1 2 16,883 0.1811 0.3851 0 1 3 16,883 0.1908 0.3929 0 1 unemployment rate 16,883 3.4008 0.6744 1.21 4.5 expenditure ratios on education 16,883 0.1724 0.0250 0.0989 0.2222 expenditure ratios on health 16,883 0.0702 0.0128 0.0439 0.1056 happiness 16,883 3.8297 0.8056 1 5 gender equality 5 16,883 0.0716 0.2578 0 1 4 16,883 0.2418 0.4282 0 1 3 16,883 0.1088 0.3114 0 1 2 16,883 0.4171 0.4931 0 1 1 16,883 0.1606 0.3672 0 1 Descriptive statistics of the one-child period Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max gender male 16,883 0.4867 0.4998 0 1 female 16,883 0.5133 0.4998 0 1 age 16,883 34.0793 7.5468 17 45 huji(urban=1) rural 16,883 0.5545 0.4970 0 1 urban 16,883 0.4455 0.4970 0 1 edulevel 0 16,883 0.0327 0.1778 0 1 1 16,883 0.4919 0.4999 0 1 2 16,883 0.2085 0.4062 0 1 3 16,883 0.1223 0.3276 0 1 4 16,883 0.1446 0.3518 0 1 area 1 16,883 0.3669 0.4820 0 1 2 16,883 0.2342 0.4235 0 1 3 16,883 0.2655 0.4416 0 1 4 16,883 0.1334 0.3401 0 1 income 16,883 3.9520 3.4358 -4.8126 11.4541 GDP per capita 16,883 29.0581 0.4635 27.9108 30.0004
  • 38. Appendix 38 Descriptive statistics of the two-child period Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max achiv 1 7,950 0.5323 0.4990 0 1 2 7,950 0.4189 0.4934 0 1 3 7,950 0.0488 0.2155 0 1 income inequality 7,950 4.4088 1.8796 2.0000 10 work 1 7,950 0.6618 0.4731 0 1 2 7,950 0.1004 0.3005 0 1 3 7,950 0.2379 0.4258 0 1 unemployment rate 7,950 3.0854 0.7330 1.4 4.2 expenditure ratios on education 7,950 0.1603 0.0266 0.1099 0.2041 expenditure ratios on health 7,950 0.0811 0.0143 0.0546 0.1044 happiness 7,950 3.9005 0.7795 1 5 gender equality 5 7,950 0.1526 0.3596 0 1 4 7,950 0.3419 0.4744 0 1 3 7,950 0.0994 0.2992 0 1 2 7,950 0.3153 0.4647 0 1 1 7,950 0.0908 0.2874 0 1 Variable Obs Mean Std. dev. Min Max gender male 7,950 0.4669 0.4989 0 1 female 7,950 0.5331 0.4989 0 1 age 7,950 33.4226 7.6251 18 45 huji(urban=1) rural 7,950 0.5499 0.4975 0 1 urban 7,950 0.4501 0.4975 0 1 edulevel 0 7,950 0.0350 0.1837 0 1 1 7,950 0.3925 0.4883 0 1 2 7,950 0.2081 0.4059 0 1 3 7,950 0.1367 0.3436 0 1 4 7,950 0.2278 0.4194 0 1 area 1 7,950 0.4328 0.4955 0 1 2 7,950 0.2057 0.4042 0 1 3 7,950 0.2410 0.4277 0 1 4 7,950 0.1205 0.3256 0 1 income 7,950 3.8798 4.1223 -4.8700 11.3572 GDP per capita 7,950 29.5091 0.4456 28.6751 30.2755