14. 353 المجمد اإلداريةو االقتصادية العموم مجمة20العدد79لسنة2014
تقديرنماذجاألنحدارالحيزيالفقر لنسبالعراق أقضية في
للعام2012
ادلصادس
:انعشبية ادلصادس
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.بغداد ،الطيف مطبعة
:االخنبية ادلصادس
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15. 353 المجمد اإلداريةو االقتصادية العموم مجمة20العدد79لسنة2014
تقديرنماذجاألنحدارالحيزيالفقر لنسبالعراق أقضية في
للعام2012
Spatial Regression Models Estimation for the poverty Rates
In the districts of Iraq in 2012
Abstract
The research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error
model: SEM in an attempt to provide a practical evident that proves the
importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using
regression models spatial and that includes all of them spatial dependence, which
we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this
dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the
phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the
statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual
regression models with time-series models. Spatial analysis had been applied on
Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES 2012. To measure the
preference models used in the research was the use of such standards compared:
Root Mean Squares Error: RMSE, Mean Absolute Percentage Error: MAPE
and , and Adjusted determinant coefficient: with different weight matrices
(binary and modified) take into account the effect of neighborhoods of districts.
Keywords: Spatial Analysis, Poverty Rates, Moran Test, Demography.