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Harvard University Graduate School of Design Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities  July 22-23, 2009  By:  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC spodvin@post.harvard.edu www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
OPPORTUNITIES PANEL Among the questions to be discussed:  Opportunities currently available;  Opportunities that will be available; How to source, underwrite and execute.  Where is capital coming from? Panelists:Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director, The Crest At Waterford Lakes, LLCGentry Hoit, Atlantic Assets Group Cia Buckley, Dune Capital Jonathan G. Davis, The Davis Companies
Markets With Best Investment Potential • What is your investment horizon? (5 years, 8 years?) • Are you IRR-driven? • These are the characteristics to look for in a target market: Strong long-term high-wage job potential Deep discounts  Finished, vacant to decline Long-term land/VDL constraints In-migration (demand) potential  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Finding the Best Markets for Your Investment Criteria Where are you on the risk-return spectrum?  Want high return?  You’ll need to look in the “bubble markets”! Miami, AZ, Las Vegas, California If you are content with a more modest return, and seek to avoid a falling knife, you can consider some non-bubble markets Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Criteria for Picking Potentially High-Return Markets Strong long-term high-wage job potential Deep discounts  Long-term land constraints In-migration (demand) potential  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Transaction SummaryFrom January through April Based on independent reports of properties and portfolios $5 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.  ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
Most Active Markets deals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Where’s the Demand Y-t-D vol. by property type   $ Bil %  Change  Q2 %  Change Office                                   $28.37              -71% -75% Industrial                                5.95                -77% -83% Retail                                     13.97               -66% -77% Apartment                              6.45               -80% -75% Hotel                                        3.71               -81% -77% Dev Site                                 18.54               -69% -62% Grand Total                        $76.99               -72% -73% ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.   Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
WHO’S BUYING deals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
WHO IS SELLING SWFs HEDGE & OPPORTUNITY FUNDS REITS PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS PENSION FUNDS ENDOWMENTS SPECIAL SERVICERS/MASTER SERVICERS REAL ESTATE COMPANIES Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
United States Troubled Assets Assets#PropsVol (mil) Troubled                     4,444                $85,649.7  Restruct'd/Modified    711                $16,217.7 Lender REO                   719                $10,332.3  Current Distress          5,874              $112,199.7  Resolved                          542              $9,517.5  Total6,416$121,717.1 ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS Industry Managed approx. $2.5T No. of hedge funds managing more than $1Bn fell by more than 40% 1,471 funds, or roughly 15% of the hedge fund industry, were liquidated More than 775 funds closed in the final quarter of 2008 Per Trac Financial Solutions Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
THE GREAT LIQUIDATION $200Bn to be withdrawn in 2009 $155Bn was taken out in 2008 This cycle will likely see more liquidations than in the last three combined, said Steven Smith, global head of leveraged finance at UBS in NY. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
WHO IS LIQUIDATING  Drake Management,   Centaurus Capital,  London Diversified Fund Management  Basso Capital,  Ferox Capital Management Norwich Union’s £2.8Bn unit-linked vehicle forced to close The Man Group, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund manager, said net outflows by institutions were about $4.2Bn Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HARD TIMES HIT HEDGES Fortress Investment Group places restrictions on redemptions.  Blackstone Och-Ziff Capital Management Cerberus and  Citadel are facing tougher times, as well. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
PRIVATE EQUITY UNLOADS RBS Hires UBS To Sell £500mm Of Investments In Private Equity Funds $134bn Of Private Equity Assets On The Balance Sheet 5 Of 6 Big Money Banks And AIG AIGselling Tokyo landmark near Imperial Palace.  GE JOINS THE LIST OF SELLERS Japanese companies start selling properties to meet  	financing needs, says EijiSakaguchi, head of real estate 	banking at Morgan Stanley in Japan Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Private Equity Fund Diagram Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKETFOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS Types of Secondary Transactions  2.1  Sale of Limited Partnership Interests  2.2  Sale of Direct  Interests Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
REITS UNLOAD  REITS among 1st to sell properties   Dow Jones Equity ALL REIT Total Return Index, which tracks 113 stocks, posted a negative total return of 32% in first quarter of 2009. Hotel Reits – down 38% Retail REITs down 39% Health Care REITS down 28% Self Storage REITs down 32% Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
SMALLER BANKS WILL GET HIT HARDER Unlike the housing meltdown, this crisis is likely to hit smaller banks the hardest.  The four largest U.S. banks have an average exposure of 2 per cent to commercial real estate.  The 30 to 100 largest banks have an average 12-per-cent exposure.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HUMPTY DUMPTY CAN’T PUT THE ZOMBIE BANKS BACK TOGETHER AGAIN The banking industry, which has a $1.8-trillion exposure to commercial real estate, could face losses of nearly $200-billion, according to Deutsche Bank real estate analyst Richard Parkus.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
FORECAST FOR DEFAULTS AND BANKRUPTCIES  Debt defaults increase at double-digit rate next 24 months 160 to 190 defaults in 2009  B/n 120 and 140 in 2010 Typically, 2 out of 3 to 3 out of 4 defaults end in bankruptcies within 3 months.  Thus, we are looking at: 150 bankruptcies in 2009 and  100 in 2010. according to a bi-annual study in November 2008 by Bain Corporate Renewal Group.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
PROPERTY TYPES deals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
ASSET BUBBLE W/ CRATERING VALUES U.S. home owners lost a cumulative $3.3T in home values in 2008, according to Zillow.  Since 2006, more than $6.1T in "value" has evaporated. Recipe for real estate bubble:  slice of mbs  into  a  bowl of cdos and (add) another layer of cdos on top Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Foreclosure Tsunami
NEXT SHOE TO DROP There were 5,315 U.S. commercial properties in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy at the end of June, more than twice the number at the end of 2008, with hotels and retail among the most “problematic,” Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in a report. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATECRISIS JUST BEGINNING A wave of loans made during the boom years of the past decade are now coming due, including roughly $400-billion worth this year and more than $1.8-trillion by 2012, according to the Washington-based Real Estate Roundtable.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
NEW YORK EPICENTER OFCOMMERCIAL RE CRISIS The epicenter of the commercial real estate crisis is New York, where nearly $8-billion worth of commercial properties – mainly office towers – are in various stages of financial distress.  Many office towers with significant vacancies, in Manhattan and elsewhere, are being unloaded at “fire sale” discounts of up to 70%.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Office/Shopping Centers Prices for office towers and shopping centers are already down 35 to 45% from their peak in 2007, and further declines are likely, Mr. Parkus from Deutsche Bank said.  That compares with a 32% peak-to-trough decline for house prices, according to the Case-Shiller home price index.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELS After a dismal 2008, it seemed that hotel sales volume could not fall any further.  Q1'09 transactions dropped to $644M, an 85% YOY decline and 98% off the 2007 market peak.  Sales of limited service properties fell 77% from Q1’08 levels while full service properties have endured an 88% decline in sales volume.  ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELS Per-unit pricing declined with the drop-off in volume as full and limited service hotels were down 1% and 4% YOY, respectively.  Pricing for the top 25% of assets also fell to $169k/key at a 7.5% cap rate further underlining the particular strain on the typically higher-priced full service market. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELS Smaller deal size means smaller private players are dominating limited service hotel transaction activity and made up 69% of buyers for the past four quarters.  Private investors also comprised 80% of sellers of limited service properties for the same period.  Those investors most vulnerable to the freeze in capital markets, including REITs and other public companies, continue to be net sellers at a staggering 12:1 ratio.  ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
HOTELS Institutional and foreign players with a particular taste for full service assets have been net buyers by a ratio of over 3:2.  As more hotel assets become distressed, these trends seem poised to continue; the big buyers of the boom will sell assets to meet obligations while institutions with strong balance sheets or smaller private players can take advantage of bargains. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
CONCLUSIONS No CMBS in 2009 YTD, and practically no debt available. What to CAP?  Trailing-12 makes no sense as NOI keeps falling.   Whose forecast do you use for your proforma?  Cap rates are rising but no one knows where they will stabilize. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
CONCLUSIONS CONT.- Buyers expect many foreclosures and bank REOs, and don’t want to overpay, so for the time being remain on sidelines Key markets need new price benchmarks to reset expectations.  Only then will buyers know their way. Buyers are assuming that when they do proceed, they need to be prepared to buy with all-equity.   Hence further upward pressure on Cap rates  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
FINAL THOUGHTS Seller financing will be prevalent in  transactions for the foreseeable future When debt starts coming available (who knows when?), it will be more costly Many groups have identified new equity sources, but not many transactions have closed so you must doubt whether they funded yet.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
SALES VOLUME FALLS OFF A CLIFF Sales volume has fallen with uncanny consistency by 71% over the past twelve months as investor appetites have subsided in equal measure across the property spectrum. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Downward Pressure on New Home Prices 1) Lack of mortgage financing,  2) Job losses and lower incomes,  3) Smaller houses with lower specifications,  4) Need for many home buyers to sell another house before they buy, and  5) Massive REO competition as the option- ARM recast wave hits next year.  Plus, as Treasury rates rise, there will be further downward pressure. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009  spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
ABOUT US PDG is an independently managed private equity real estate investment advisory company focused on real estate investment in the U.S., Europe and Asia.  Our managed investments include development and redevelopment projects, joint-ventures and real estate operating companies in the office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel sectors.   We combine local knowledge of our real estate professionals with broad global perspectives to develop our strategies and identify investment opportunities.  Our team of real estate professionals come from diverse backgrounds, with the full range of skills required to invest in and manage real estate and advise real estate funds. Our specialists apply their skills to ensure that we drive every one of our investments to perform at its optimum.  PDG is independent of any broader financial services group. We can invest funds on behalf of a number of different organizations, including pension funds, insurance companies, government entities and financial institutions, as well as charities and endowments.
Take Care of Your Family Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC www.TheCrestLife.com spodvin@post.harvard.edu Cell: (305) 793-5762 Fax: (305) 665-3971

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Opportunities Panelv2

  • 1. Harvard University Graduate School of Design Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities July 22-23, 2009 By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC spodvin@post.harvard.edu www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 2. OPPORTUNITIES PANEL Among the questions to be discussed: Opportunities currently available; Opportunities that will be available; How to source, underwrite and execute. Where is capital coming from? Panelists:Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director, The Crest At Waterford Lakes, LLCGentry Hoit, Atlantic Assets Group Cia Buckley, Dune Capital Jonathan G. Davis, The Davis Companies
  • 3. Markets With Best Investment Potential • What is your investment horizon? (5 years, 8 years?) • Are you IRR-driven? • These are the characteristics to look for in a target market: Strong long-term high-wage job potential Deep discounts Finished, vacant to decline Long-term land/VDL constraints In-migration (demand) potential Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 4. Finding the Best Markets for Your Investment Criteria Where are you on the risk-return spectrum? Want high return? You’ll need to look in the “bubble markets”! Miami, AZ, Las Vegas, California If you are content with a more modest return, and seek to avoid a falling knife, you can consider some non-bubble markets Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 5. Criteria for Picking Potentially High-Return Markets Strong long-term high-wage job potential Deep discounts Long-term land constraints In-migration (demand) potential Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 6. Transaction SummaryFrom January through April Based on independent reports of properties and portfolios $5 million and greater. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 7. Most Active Markets deals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 8. Where’s the Demand Y-t-D vol. by property type $ Bil % Change Q2 % Change Office $28.37 -71% -75% Industrial 5.95 -77% -83% Retail 13.97 -66% -77% Apartment 6.45 -80% -75% Hotel 3.71 -81% -77% Dev Site 18.54 -69% -62% Grand Total $76.99 -72% -73% ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.   Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 9. WHO’S BUYING deals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 10. WHO IS SELLING SWFs HEDGE & OPPORTUNITY FUNDS REITS PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS PENSION FUNDS ENDOWMENTS SPECIAL SERVICERS/MASTER SERVICERS REAL ESTATE COMPANIES Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 11. United States Troubled Assets Assets#PropsVol (mil) Troubled 4,444 $85,649.7 Restruct'd/Modified 711 $16,217.7 Lender REO 719 $10,332.3 Current Distress 5,874 $112,199.7 Resolved 542 $9,517.5 Total6,416$121,717.1 ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 12. HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS Industry Managed approx. $2.5T No. of hedge funds managing more than $1Bn fell by more than 40% 1,471 funds, or roughly 15% of the hedge fund industry, were liquidated More than 775 funds closed in the final quarter of 2008 Per Trac Financial Solutions Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 13. THE GREAT LIQUIDATION $200Bn to be withdrawn in 2009 $155Bn was taken out in 2008 This cycle will likely see more liquidations than in the last three combined, said Steven Smith, global head of leveraged finance at UBS in NY. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 14. WHO IS LIQUIDATING Drake Management, Centaurus Capital, London Diversified Fund Management Basso Capital, Ferox Capital Management Norwich Union’s £2.8Bn unit-linked vehicle forced to close The Man Group, the world’s largest publicly traded hedge fund manager, said net outflows by institutions were about $4.2Bn Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 15. HARD TIMES HIT HEDGES Fortress Investment Group places restrictions on redemptions. Blackstone Och-Ziff Capital Management Cerberus and Citadel are facing tougher times, as well. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 16. PRIVATE EQUITY UNLOADS RBS Hires UBS To Sell £500mm Of Investments In Private Equity Funds $134bn Of Private Equity Assets On The Balance Sheet 5 Of 6 Big Money Banks And AIG AIGselling Tokyo landmark near Imperial Palace. GE JOINS THE LIST OF SELLERS Japanese companies start selling properties to meet financing needs, says EijiSakaguchi, head of real estate banking at Morgan Stanley in Japan Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 17. Private Equity Fund Diagram Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 18. MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKETFOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS Types of Secondary Transactions 2.1 Sale of Limited Partnership Interests 2.2 Sale of Direct Interests Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 19. REITS UNLOAD REITS among 1st to sell properties Dow Jones Equity ALL REIT Total Return Index, which tracks 113 stocks, posted a negative total return of 32% in first quarter of 2009. Hotel Reits – down 38% Retail REITs down 39% Health Care REITS down 28% Self Storage REITs down 32% Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 20.
  • 21. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 22.
  • 23. SMALLER BANKS WILL GET HIT HARDER Unlike the housing meltdown, this crisis is likely to hit smaller banks the hardest. The four largest U.S. banks have an average exposure of 2 per cent to commercial real estate. The 30 to 100 largest banks have an average 12-per-cent exposure. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 24. HUMPTY DUMPTY CAN’T PUT THE ZOMBIE BANKS BACK TOGETHER AGAIN The banking industry, which has a $1.8-trillion exposure to commercial real estate, could face losses of nearly $200-billion, according to Deutsche Bank real estate analyst Richard Parkus. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 25. FORECAST FOR DEFAULTS AND BANKRUPTCIES Debt defaults increase at double-digit rate next 24 months 160 to 190 defaults in 2009 B/n 120 and 140 in 2010 Typically, 2 out of 3 to 3 out of 4 defaults end in bankruptcies within 3 months. Thus, we are looking at: 150 bankruptcies in 2009 and 100 in 2010. according to a bi-annual study in November 2008 by Bain Corporate Renewal Group. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 26. PROPERTY TYPES deals reported closed in past 12 months valued at $20 mil. or greater ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 27. ASSET BUBBLE W/ CRATERING VALUES U.S. home owners lost a cumulative $3.3T in home values in 2008, according to Zillow. Since 2006, more than $6.1T in "value" has evaporated. Recipe for real estate bubble: slice of mbs into a bowl of cdos and (add) another layer of cdos on top Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 28.
  • 30. NEXT SHOE TO DROP There were 5,315 U.S. commercial properties in default, foreclosure or bankruptcy at the end of June, more than twice the number at the end of 2008, with hotels and retail among the most “problematic,” Real Capital Analytics Inc. said in a report. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 31. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 32. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATECRISIS JUST BEGINNING A wave of loans made during the boom years of the past decade are now coming due, including roughly $400-billion worth this year and more than $1.8-trillion by 2012, according to the Washington-based Real Estate Roundtable. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 33. NEW YORK EPICENTER OFCOMMERCIAL RE CRISIS The epicenter of the commercial real estate crisis is New York, where nearly $8-billion worth of commercial properties – mainly office towers – are in various stages of financial distress. Many office towers with significant vacancies, in Manhattan and elsewhere, are being unloaded at “fire sale” discounts of up to 70%. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 34. Office/Shopping Centers Prices for office towers and shopping centers are already down 35 to 45% from their peak in 2007, and further declines are likely, Mr. Parkus from Deutsche Bank said. That compares with a 32% peak-to-trough decline for house prices, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 35. HOTELS After a dismal 2008, it seemed that hotel sales volume could not fall any further. Q1'09 transactions dropped to $644M, an 85% YOY decline and 98% off the 2007 market peak. Sales of limited service properties fell 77% from Q1’08 levels while full service properties have endured an 88% decline in sales volume. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 36. HOTELS Per-unit pricing declined with the drop-off in volume as full and limited service hotels were down 1% and 4% YOY, respectively. Pricing for the top 25% of assets also fell to $169k/key at a 7.5% cap rate further underlining the particular strain on the typically higher-priced full service market. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 37. HOTELS Smaller deal size means smaller private players are dominating limited service hotel transaction activity and made up 69% of buyers for the past four quarters. Private investors also comprised 80% of sellers of limited service properties for the same period. Those investors most vulnerable to the freeze in capital markets, including REITs and other public companies, continue to be net sellers at a staggering 12:1 ratio. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 38. HOTELS Institutional and foreign players with a particular taste for full service assets have been net buyers by a ratio of over 3:2. As more hotel assets become distressed, these trends seem poised to continue; the big buyers of the boom will sell assets to meet obligations while institutions with strong balance sheets or smaller private players can take advantage of bargains. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 39. CONCLUSIONS No CMBS in 2009 YTD, and practically no debt available. What to CAP?  Trailing-12 makes no sense as NOI keeps falling.  Whose forecast do you use for your proforma?  Cap rates are rising but no one knows where they will stabilize. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 40. CONCLUSIONS CONT.- Buyers expect many foreclosures and bank REOs, and don’t want to overpay, so for the time being remain on sidelines Key markets need new price benchmarks to reset expectations.  Only then will buyers know their way. Buyers are assuming that when they do proceed, they need to be prepared to buy with all-equity.  Hence further upward pressure on Cap rates Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 41. FINAL THOUGHTS Seller financing will be prevalent in transactions for the foreseeable future When debt starts coming available (who knows when?), it will be more costly Many groups have identified new equity sources, but not many transactions have closed so you must doubt whether they funded yet.  Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 42. SALES VOLUME FALLS OFF A CLIFF Sales volume has fallen with uncanny consistency by 71% over the past twelve months as investor appetites have subsided in equal measure across the property spectrum. ©2008 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 43. Downward Pressure on New Home Prices 1) Lack of mortgage financing, 2) Job losses and lower incomes, 3) Smaller houses with lower specifications, 4) Need for many home buyers to sell another house before they buy, and 5) Massive REO competition as the option- ARM recast wave hits next year. Plus, as Treasury rates rise, there will be further downward pressure. Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design: Distressed Real Estate: Examining Debt and Equity Structures to Mitigate Losses and Identify Opportunities, July 22-23, 2009 spodvin@post.harvard.edu; www.TheCrestLife.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
  • 44. ABOUT US PDG is an independently managed private equity real estate investment advisory company focused on real estate investment in the U.S., Europe and Asia. Our managed investments include development and redevelopment projects, joint-ventures and real estate operating companies in the office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel sectors.  We combine local knowledge of our real estate professionals with broad global perspectives to develop our strategies and identify investment opportunities. Our team of real estate professionals come from diverse backgrounds, with the full range of skills required to invest in and manage real estate and advise real estate funds. Our specialists apply their skills to ensure that we drive every one of our investments to perform at its optimum. PDG is independent of any broader financial services group. We can invest funds on behalf of a number of different organizations, including pension funds, insurance companies, government entities and financial institutions, as well as charities and endowments.
  • 45. Take Care of Your Family Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC www.TheCrestLife.com spodvin@post.harvard.edu Cell: (305) 793-5762 Fax: (305) 665-3971

Editor's Notes

  1. Debt defaults by companies with assets exceeding $100 million