ReportCrystal Ball Report - FullSimulation started on 4/9/2017 at 5:36 PMSimulation stopped on 4/9/2017 at 5:37 PMRun preferences:Number of trials run100,000Extreme speedMonte CarloRandom seedPrecision control on Confidence level95.00%Run statistics:Total running time (sec)26.33Trials/second (average)3,798Random numbers per sec486,097Crystal Ball data:Assumptions128 Correlations36 Correlation matrices12Decision variables0Forecasts4ForecastsWorksheet: [wael Alturki (3) (1).xlsx]Sheet1Forecast: NPV Parent IRPCell: B101Summary:Certainty level is 51.669%Certainty range is from $0 to ∞Entire range is from -$4,327,466 to $3,687,053Base case is $257,201After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $3,421Statistics:Forecast valuesTrials100,000Base Case$257,201Mean-$82,113Median$37,123Mode---Standard Deviation$1,081,705Variance$1,170,086,646,713Skewness-0.6855Kurtosis3.63Coeff. of Variation-13.17Minimum-$4,327,466Maximum$3,687,053Range Width$8,014,519Mean Std. Error$3,421Forecast: NPV Parent IRP (cont'd)Cell: B101Percentiles:Forecast values0%-$4,327,46610%-$1,625,76620%-$776,14530%-$441,47240%-$188,22350%$37,11760%$258,02770%$494,42780%$768,34690%$1,152,751100%$3,687,053Forecast: NPV Parent Randome WalkCell: B100Summary:Certainty level is 90.064%Certainty range is from $0 to ∞Entire range is from -$3,289,885 to $9,218,044Base case is $4,255,363After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $6,120Statistics:Forecast valuesTrials100,000Base Case$4,255,363Mean$3,698,991Median$4,026,171Mode---Standard Deviation$1,935,335Variance$3,745,520,478,412Skewness-1.28Kurtosis4.61Coeff. of Variation0.5232Minimum-$3,289,885Maximum$9,218,044Range Width$12,507,928Mean Std. Error$6,120Forecast: NPV Parent Randome Walk (cont'd)Cell: B100Percentiles:Forecast values0%-$3,289,88510%$148,43020%$2,886,98530%$3,349,43640%$3,702,72550%$4,026,16660%$4,346,25770%$4,682,84880%$5,082,94290%$5,633,420100%$9,218,044Forecast: NPV Parent RPPPCell: B102Summary:Certainty level is 80.295%Certainty range is from $0 to ∞Entire range is from -$4,050,161 to $4,946,951Base case is $1,076,486After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $3,863Statistics:Forecast valuesTrials100,000Base Case$1,076,486Mean$686,899Median$853,670Mode---Standard Deviation$1,221,635Variance$1,492,391,798,245Skewness-0.9360Kurtosis4.01Coeff. of Variation1.78Minimum-$4,050,161Maximum$4,946,951Range Width$8,997,113Mean Std. Error$3,863Forecast: NPV Parent RPPP (cont'd)Cell: B102Percentiles:Forecast values0%-$4,050,16110%-$1,164,71220%$13,11530%$357,75540%$618,52450%$853,66960%$1,087,14270%$1,330,60680%$1,619,13190%$2,009,041100%$4,946,951Forecast: NPV Project PrespectiveCell: B99Summary:Certainty level is 78.453%Certainty range is from $0.00 to ∞Entire range is from $(4,039,514.38) to $4,887,169.80Base case is $1,005,935.97After 100,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $3,836.99Statistics:Forecast valuesTrials100,000Base Case$1,005,935.97Mean$621,484.71Median$782,514.32Mode---Standard Devia ...
ReportCrystal Ball Report - FullSimulation started on 492017 at .docx
1. ReportCrystal Ball Report - FullSimulation started on 4/9/2017
at 5:36 PMSimulation stopped on 4/9/2017 at 5:37 PMRun
preferences:Number of trials run100,000Extreme speedMonte
CarloRandom seedPrecision control on Confidence
level95.00%Run statistics:Total running time
(sec)26.33Trials/second (average)3,798Random numbers per
sec486,097Crystal Ball data:Assumptions128 Correlations36
Correlation matrices12Decision
variables0Forecasts4ForecastsWorksheet: [wael Alturki (3)
(1).xlsx]Sheet1Forecast: NPV Parent IRPCell:
B101Summary:Certainty level is 51.669%Certainty range is
from $0 to ∞Entire range is from -$4,327,466 to
$3,687,053Base case is $257,201After 100,000 trials, the std.
error of the mean is $3,421Statistics:Forecast
valuesTrials100,000Base Case$257,201Mean-
$82,113Median$37,123Mode---Standard
Deviation$1,081,705Variance$1,170,086,646,713Skewness-
0.6855Kurtosis3.63Coeff. of Variation-13.17Minimum-
$4,327,466Maximum$3,687,053Range Width$8,014,519Mean
Std. Error$3,421Forecast: NPV Parent IRP (cont'd)Cell:
B101Percentiles:Forecast values0%-$4,327,46610%-
$1,625,76620%-$776,14530%-$441,47240%-
$188,22350%$37,11760%$258,02770%$494,42780%$768,3469
0%$1,152,751100%$3,687,053Forecast: NPV Parent Randome
WalkCell: B100Summary:Certainty level is 90.064%Certainty
range is from $0 to ∞Entire range is from -$3,289,885 to
$9,218,044Base case is $4,255,363After 100,000 trials, the std.
error of the mean is $6,120Statistics:Forecast
valuesTrials100,000Base
Case$4,255,363Mean$3,698,991Median$4,026,171Mode---
Standard
Deviation$1,935,335Variance$3,745,520,478,412Skewness-
1.28Kurtosis4.61Coeff. of Variation0.5232Minimum-
$3,289,885Maximum$9,218,044Range Width$12,507,928Mean
2. Std. Error$6,120Forecast: NPV Parent Randome Walk
(cont'd)Cell: B100Percentiles:Forecast values0%-
$3,289,88510%$148,43020%$2,886,98530%$3,349,43640%$3,7
02,72550%$4,026,16660%$4,346,25770%$4,682,84880%$5,082
,94290%$5,633,420100%$9,218,044Forecast: NPV Parent
RPPPCell: B102Summary:Certainty level is 80.295%Certainty
range is from $0 to ∞Entire range is from -$4,050,161 to
$4,946,951Base case is $1,076,486After 100,000 trials, the std.
error of the mean is $3,863Statistics:Forecast
valuesTrials100,000Base
Case$1,076,486Mean$686,899Median$853,670Mode---Standard
Deviation$1,221,635Variance$1,492,391,798,245Skewness-
0.9360Kurtosis4.01Coeff. of Variation1.78Minimum-
$4,050,161Maximum$4,946,951Range Width$8,997,113Mean
Std. Error$3,863Forecast: NPV Parent RPPP (cont'd)Cell:
B102Percentiles:Forecast values0%-$4,050,16110%-
$1,164,71220%$13,11530%$357,75540%$618,52450%$853,669
60%$1,087,14270%$1,330,60680%$1,619,13190%$2,009,04110
0%$4,946,951Forecast: NPV Project PrespectiveCell:
B99Summary:Certainty level is 78.453%Certainty range is from
$0.00 to ∞Entire range is from $(4,039,514.38) to
$4,887,169.80Base case is $1,005,935.97After 100,000 trials,
the std. error of the mean is $3,836.99Statistics:Forecast
valuesTrials100,000Base
Case$1,005,935.97Mean$621,484.71Median$782,514.32Mode--
-Standard
Deviation$1,213,362.68Variance$1,472,248,987,753.77Skewnes
s-0.8878Kurtosis3.93Coeff. of Variation1.95Minimum
$(4,039,514.38)Maximum$4,887,169.80Range
Width$8,926,684.18Mean Std. Error$3,836.99Forecast: NPV
Project Prespective (cont'd)Cell: B99Percentiles:Forecast
values0% $(4,039,514.38)10% $(1,208,858.52)20%
$(64,454.84)30%$281,069.9540%$543,414.4050%$782,500.026
0%$1,014,834.4170%$1,260,464.3480%$1,549,025.4890%$1,94
7,015.03100%$4,887,169.80End of
ForecastsAssumptionsWorksheet: [wael Alturki (3)
3. (1).xlsx]Sheet1Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales
2019Cell: D26Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10'
Classic growth in Sales 2020Cell: E26Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales
2021Cell: F26Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10'
Classic growth in Sales 2022Cell: G26Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales
2023Cell: H26Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10'
Classic growth in Sales 2024Cell: I26Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales
2025Cell: J26Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10'
Classic growth in Sales 2026Cell: K26Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales
2027Cell: L26Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10'
Classic growth in Sales 2028Cell: M26Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 10' Classic growth in Sales
2029Cell: N26Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum9.00Assumption: 14'
Classic growth in Sales 2019Cell: D27Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales
2020Cell: E27Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14'
Classic growth in Sales 2021Cell: F27Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales
4. 2022Cell: G27Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14'
Classic growth in Sales 2023Cell: H27Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales
2024Cell: I27Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14'
Classic growth in Sales 2025Cell: J27Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales
2026Cell: K27Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14'
Classic growth in Sales 2027Cell: L27Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14' Classic growth in Sales
2028Cell: M27Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 14'
Classic growth in Sales 2029Cell: N27Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
4.00Maximum12.00Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales
2019Cell: D28Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17'
Classic growth in Sales 2020Cell: E28Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales
2021Cell: F28Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17'
Classic growth in Sales 2022Cell: G28Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales
2023Cell: H28Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17'
Classic growth in Sales 2024Cell: I28Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales
2025Cell: J28Discrete Uniform distribution with
5. parameters:Minimum-3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17'
Classic growth in Sales 2026Cell: K28Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales
2027Cell: L28Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17'
Classic growth in Sales 2028Cell: M28Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 17' Classic growth in Sales
2029Cell: N28Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-3.00Maximum15.00Assumption: 19'
Classic growth in Sales 2019Cell: D29Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales
2020Cell: E29Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19'
Classic growth in Sales 2021Cell: F29Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales
2022Cell: G29Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19'
Classic growth in Sales 2024Cell: I29Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales
2025Cell: J29Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19'
Classic growth in Sales 2026Cell: K29Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales
2027Cell: L29Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19'
Classic growth in Sales 2028Cell: M29Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 19' Classic growth in Sales
2029Cell: N29Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum11.00Assumption: 2018
6. Sales 10' classicCell: C13Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum100.00Maximum130.00Assumption: 22'
Classic Growth in Sales 2019Cell: D30Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales
2020Cell: E30Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22'
Classic Growth in Sales 2021Cell: F30Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales
2022Cell: G30Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22'
Classic Growth in Sales 2023Cell: H30Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales
2024Cell: I30Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22'
Classic Growth in Sales 2025Cell: J30Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
5.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales
2026Cell: K30Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22'
Classic Growth in Sales 2027Cell: L30Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22' Classic Growth in Sales
2028Cell: M30Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: 22'
Classic Growth in Sales 2029Cell: N30Discrete Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
6.00Maximum18.00Assumption: Boat mold priceCell:
B9Uniform distribution with parameters:MinimumMXN
20,000,000MaximumMXN 30,000,000Assumption: C14Cell:
C14Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum90.00Maximum140.00Assumption:
C15Cell: C15Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum100.00Maximum150.00Assumption:
7. C16Cell: C16Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum110.00Maximum150.00Assumption:
C17Cell: C17Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum170.00Maximum230.00Assumption:
D14Cell: D14Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean35%Std. Dev.6%Assumption: D15Cell:
D15Normal distribution with parameters:Mean38%Std.
Dev.7%Assumption: D17Cell: D17Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean37%Std. Dev.3%Assumption: Equipment
priceCell: B10Custom distribution with
parameters:ValueProbabilityMXN 15,000,0000.30MXN
20,000,0000.30MXN 25,000,0000.10Assumption: Equipment
price (cont'd)Cell: B10Assumption: H2919' Classic growth in
Sales 2023Cell: H29Discrete Uniform distribution with
parameters:Minimum-5.00Maximum11.00Assumption:
Manufacturing Faculity priceCell: B8Triangular distribution
with parameters:MinimumMXN 115,000,000LikeliestMXN
130,000,000MaximumMXN 150,000,000Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2018Cell: C25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.350%Std. Dev.0.950%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2018
(C23)0.75US Expected Infliation 2018 (C24)0.42Assumption:
Mexican Expected inflation 2019Cell: D25Normal distribution
with parameters:Mean5.650%Std. Dev.1.100%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2019
(D23)0.75US Expected Infliation 2019 (D24)0.42Assumption:
Mexican Expected inflation 2020Cell: E25Normal distribution
with parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2020
(E23)0.75US Expected Infliation 2020 (E24)0.42Assumption:
Mexican Expected inflation 2021Cell: F25Normal distribution
with parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2021 (F24)0.42Mexican
Nominal Intersest Rate 2021 (F23)0.75Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2022Cell: G25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
8. with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2022 (G24)0.42Mexican
Nominal Intersest Rate 2022 (G23)0.75Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2023Cell: H25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2023
(H23)0.75US Expected Infliation 2023 (H24)0.42Assumption:
Mexican Expected inflation 2024Cell: I25Normal distribution
with parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2024 (I24)0.42Mexican
Nominal Intersest Rate 2024 (I23)0.75Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2025Cell: J25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2025 (J24)0.42Mexican
Nominal Intersest Rate 2025 (J23)0.75Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2026Cell: K25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2026 (K24)0.42Mexican
Nominal Intersest Rate 2026 (K23)0.75Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2027Cell: L25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2027 (L24)0.42Mexican
Nominal Intersest Rate 2027 (L23)0.75Assumption: Mexican
Expected inflation 2028Cell: M25Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2028
(M23)0.75US Expected Infliation 2028 (M24)0.42Assumption:
Mexican Expected inflation 2029Cell: N25Normal distribution
with parameters:Mean5.950%Std. Dev.1.300%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2029
(N23)0.75US Expected Infliation 2029 (N24)0.42Assumption:
Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate 2018Cell: C23Normal
distribution with parameters:Mean7.500%Std.
Dev.1.750%Correlated with:CoefficientMexican Expected
inflation 2018 (C25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal
Intersest Rate 2019Cell: D23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean7.850%Std. Dev.1.950%Correlated
9. with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2019
(D25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2020Cell: E23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2020
(E25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2021Cell: F23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2021
(F25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2022Cell: G23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2022
(G25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2023Cell: H23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2023
(H25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2024Cell: I23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2024
(I25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2025Cell: J23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2025
(J25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2026Cell: K23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2026
(K25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2027Cell: L23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2027
(L25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2028Cell: M23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
10. with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2028
(M25)0.75Assumption: Mexican Nominal Intersest Rate
2029Cell: N23Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean8.000%Std. Dev.2.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2029
(N25)0.75Assumption: Random appreciation/depreciation
2018Cell: C21Uniform distribution with parameters:Minimum-
0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: Random
appreciation/depreciation 2019Cell: D21Uniform distribution
with parameters:Minimum-0.02Maximum0.02Assumption:
Random appreciation/depreciation 2020Cell: E21Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: Random
appreciation/depreciation 2021Cell: F21Uniform distribution
with parameters:Minimum-0.02Maximum0.02Assumption:
Random appreciation/depreciation 2022Cell: G21Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: Random
appreciation/depreciation 2023Cell: H21Uniform distribution
with parameters:Minimum-0.02Maximum0.02Assumption:
Random appreciation/depreciation 2024Cell: I21Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: Random
appreciation/depreciation 2025Cell: J21Uniform distribution
with parameters:Minimum-0.02Maximum0.02Assumption:
Random appreciation/depreciation 2026Cell: K21Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: Random
appreciation/depreciation 2027Cell: L21Uniform distribution
with parameters:Minimum-0.02Maximum0.02Assumption:
Random appreciation/depreciation 2028Cell: M21Uniform
distribution with parameters:Minimum-
0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: Random
appreciation/depreciation 2029Cell: N21Uniform distribution
with parameters:Minimum-0.02Maximum0.02Assumption: US
Expected Infliation 2018Cell: C24Normal distribution with
11. parameters:Mean0.150%Std. Dev.0.030%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2018 (C25)0.42US
Nominal Intersest Rate 2018 (C22)0.85Assumption: US
Expected Infliation 2019Cell: D24Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean0.650%Std. Dev.0.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Nominal Intersest Rate 2019
(D22)0.85Mexican Expected inflation 2019
(D25)0.42Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2020Cell:
E24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientMexican Expected
inflation 2020 (E25)0.42US Nominal Intersest Rate 2020
(E22)0.85Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2021Cell:
F24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientMexican Expected
inflation 2021 (F25)0.42US Nominal Intersest Rate 2021
(F22)0.85Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2022Cell:
G24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientMexican Expected
inflation 2022 (G25)0.42US Nominal Intersest Rate 2022
(G22)0.85Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2023Cell:
H24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Nominal Intersest
Rate 2023 (H22)0.85Mexican Expected inflation 2023
(H25)0.42Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2024Cell:
I24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientMexican Expected
inflation 2024 (I25)0.42US Nominal Intersest Rate 2024
(I22)0.85Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2025Cell:
J24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Nominal Intersest
Rate 2025 (J22)0.85US Nominal Intersest Rate 2026
(K22)0.85Mexican Expected inflation 2025
(J25)0.42Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2026Cell:
K24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientMexican Expected
inflation 2026 (K25)0.42Assumption: US Expected Infliation
12. 2027Cell: L24Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.250%Std. Dev.0.350%Correlated
with:CoefficientMexican Expected inflation 2027 (L25)0.42US
Nominal Intersest Rate 2027 (L22)0.85Assumption: US
Expected Infliation 2028Cell: M24Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.250%Std. Dev.0.350%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Nominal Intersest Rate 2028
(M22)0.85Mexican Expected inflation 2028
(M25)0.42Assumption: US Expected Infliation 2029Cell:
N24Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.250%Std.
Dev.0.350%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Nominal Intersest
Rate 2029 (N22)0.85Mexican Expected inflation 2029
(N25)0.42Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2018Cell:
C22Normal distribution with parameters:Mean0.850%Std.
Dev.0.150%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation
2018 (C24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate
2019Cell: D22Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.250%Std. Dev.0.350%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2019
(D24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2020Cell:
E22Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.500%Std.
Dev.0.450%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation
2020 (E24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate
2021Cell: F22Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.500%Std. Dev.0.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2021
(F24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2022Cell:
G22Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.500%Std.
Dev.0.150%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation
2022 (G24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate
2023Cell: H22Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.500%Std. Dev.0.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2023
(H24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2024Cell:
I22Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.500%Std.
Dev.0.150%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation
13. 2024 (I24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate
2025Cell: J22Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.500%Std. Dev.0.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2025
(J24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2026Cell:
K22Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.500%Std.
Dev.0.150%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation
2025 (J24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate
2027Cell: L22Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.500%Std. Dev.0.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2027
(L24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate 2028Cell:
M22Normal distribution with parameters:Mean1.500%Std.
Dev.0.150%Correlated with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation
2028 (M24)0.85Assumption: US Nominal Intersest Rate
2029Cell: N22Normal distribution with
parameters:Mean1.500%Std. Dev.0.150%Correlated
with:CoefficientUS Expected Infliation 2029
(N24)0.85Assumption: Variable Costs 10' classicCell:
D13Normal distribution with parameters:Mean40%Std.
Dev.5%Assumption: variable Costs 19' classicCell: D16Normal
distribution with parameters:Mean42%Std. Dev.5%End of
AssumptionsSensitivity ChartsEnd of Sensitivity Charts
CB_DATA_Crystal Ball DataWorkbook VariablesLast Var
Column0 Name: Value:Worksheet DataLast Data Column
Used2Sheet RefERROR:#REF!ERROR:#REF!Sheet
Guidf28f0c67-e094-46e2-8ef9-bbcce5055cc05d6b1b4c-cf46-
4ec8-9549-d565a8b25719Deleted sheet countLast row
used3149Data
blocksCB_Block_0CB_Block_7.0.0.0:7㜸〱敤㕣㕢㙣ㅣ㔷ㄹ摥ㄹ敦慥
㜷搶㜶散挶㐹摢愴㌷户改摤搱㌶㑥ㄳ摡㔲㐲攲㑢㙥㙤㉥㙥散愴㔴愵㙣挷扢㘷散㐹
㘶㘶摤㤹㔹㈷㉥〵㔲㈸㉤攵㈲搴昲〰扤〰㔵㠵㉡㜸㐱㉡て㔵ぢ攵〱〹〹㠴㔲挴㐳
〵攲〱愹㔴〸㤰㐰㈸ㄲ㉦㝤愸㔴扥敦捣捣敥散慥㜷散㙥㕡㜰㤱㈷搹㍦㘷捥晤㥣晦
㝡晥晦㑣㔲㑡㉡㤵㝡てて晦攵㤳㘶攲昲愹㐵捦ㄷ㜶㘱扣㘲㔹愲攴㥢ㄵ挷㉢㡣扡慥
扥㜸挸昴晣㉥㔴挸ㄶ㑤㤴㝢㤹愲㘷㍥㉣㜲挵〵攱㝡愸㤴㐹愵㜲㌹㑤㐵㌹㍢攱㙦㈰