Stocks tumbled as major companies like Bank of America, Citigroup, and General Electric reported lackluster earnings, disappointing investors and raising concerns about the pace of economic growth. The Dow fell over 200 points as all 30 components slumped. Data also showed consumer sentiment declined and core consumer prices increased more than expected. Regulatory changes in the financial industry further weighed on bank stocks.
The document provides an economic review for Botswana, including the following key points:
1) The pula has appreciated against the rand but depreciated against the US dollar, adding uncertainty for producers.
2) Botswana's inflation continued to decline in the third quarter but risks remain from fuel prices and South African inflation.
3) Exports have been growing faster than imports, leading to a positive trade balance, however some discrepancies exist in trade data reported by different sources.
The document provides commentary on macroeconomic conditions and trends in various countries/regions. Key points include:
1) A second Greek bailout is likely as the country works to implement austerity measures to reduce its deficit. However, there is uncertainty around reaching agreements on debt restructuring.
2) Consumer confidence fell in the US, Eurozone, and UK as economies showed signs of slowing. Growth is expected to remain weak.
3) The Portuguese government unveiled new fiscal measures but the country's fiscal position may be worse than expected due to risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.
4) German unemployment declined further but the resilience of its economy is unsustainable amid the debt crisis; French
The document provides an economic update for February 2009. It summarizes economic indicators from January, including a 3.8% drop in Q4 GDP, falling retail sales and consumer prices, and declining unemployment claims. Housing starts and new home sales declined significantly. Stock markets fell sharply in January, with the S&P 500 posting its worst January ever. The outlook discusses upcoming economic reports and efforts by the government to stabilize banks and restore confidence.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
This document provides a summary of recent economic and market events from around the world. It discusses issues in Europe including the need for a pan-European banking union and ongoing problems in Spain and Greece. It also mentions slowing growth in China and the US, as well as actions the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may take in response. The editorial recommends Bombardier Inc. as a buy based on its attractive valuation and potential for growth.
The document summarizes information from the Summer 2006 issue of the "Young Investor Times" newsletter. It discusses The Federal Reserve and how its decisions impact inflation and the stock market. It also profiles a young investor, reviews the stock of an amusement park company, and provides other financial education content for youth.
The handout that I prepared for my Weekly Investment Meetings (WIM). I did all of this except the advisory parts, which were implementing recommendations that I had made. The US equity part was done over two weeks earlier in the month.
Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
The document provides an economic review for Botswana, including the following key points:
1) The pula has appreciated against the rand but depreciated against the US dollar, adding uncertainty for producers.
2) Botswana's inflation continued to decline in the third quarter but risks remain from fuel prices and South African inflation.
3) Exports have been growing faster than imports, leading to a positive trade balance, however some discrepancies exist in trade data reported by different sources.
The document provides commentary on macroeconomic conditions and trends in various countries/regions. Key points include:
1) A second Greek bailout is likely as the country works to implement austerity measures to reduce its deficit. However, there is uncertainty around reaching agreements on debt restructuring.
2) Consumer confidence fell in the US, Eurozone, and UK as economies showed signs of slowing. Growth is expected to remain weak.
3) The Portuguese government unveiled new fiscal measures but the country's fiscal position may be worse than expected due to risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.
4) German unemployment declined further but the resilience of its economy is unsustainable amid the debt crisis; French
The document provides an economic update for February 2009. It summarizes economic indicators from January, including a 3.8% drop in Q4 GDP, falling retail sales and consumer prices, and declining unemployment claims. Housing starts and new home sales declined significantly. Stock markets fell sharply in January, with the S&P 500 posting its worst January ever. The outlook discusses upcoming economic reports and efforts by the government to stabilize banks and restore confidence.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
This document provides a summary of recent economic and market events from around the world. It discusses issues in Europe including the need for a pan-European banking union and ongoing problems in Spain and Greece. It also mentions slowing growth in China and the US, as well as actions the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank may take in response. The editorial recommends Bombardier Inc. as a buy based on its attractive valuation and potential for growth.
The document summarizes information from the Summer 2006 issue of the "Young Investor Times" newsletter. It discusses The Federal Reserve and how its decisions impact inflation and the stock market. It also profiles a young investor, reviews the stock of an amusement park company, and provides other financial education content for youth.
The handout that I prepared for my Weekly Investment Meetings (WIM). I did all of this except the advisory parts, which were implementing recommendations that I had made. The US equity part was done over two weeks earlier in the month.
Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
The document discusses the downgrading of the US credit rating and its potential effects. It notes that the US economy grew slowly in the first half of 2011 and consumer spending was low. The downgrade may lead to higher interest rates in the US and slower investment, though lower commodity prices could benefit India by reducing inflation and the current account deficit. There is uncertainty around how much the US slowdown will impact India's growth story. Some experts believe the impact will be temporary, while others see opportunities for India from a weaker dollar and decreased commodity prices in the "new normal" global economic environment.
The document summarizes an article from Jim Parker discussing the difficulty of forecasting market movements and interest rate changes. It notes that 24 out of 27 economists incorrectly forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates, but it decided to keep them unchanged instead. This surprised markets and highlighted the inability of even experts to consistently predict economic decisions. The document advocates for long-term investing using diversification and discipline over reliance on forecasts.
Based on proprietary data and analytic insight, this report gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on gloal business conditions for the first half of 2012.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
The document provides a weekly market snapshot and commentary from Green Financial Group. It summarizes recent economic indicator readings and testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. It also reviews index performance, interest rates, currencies and commodities. Key economic reports and events for the coming week are listed on an economic calendar.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
- In November, stock markets were under pressure for most of the month due to uncertainty around European and U.S. debt issues. However, on the last day central banks announced liquidity measures that boosted markets.
- The Canadian bond market saw decreasing yields as macro concerns over U.S. and European debt rose. Commodity prices such as oil and gold increased over the month.
- Health care and materials sectors performed well in Canada while information technology lagged. U.S. stocks remained favored over other global options due to relatively stable economic activity.
Global equity markets rose in February as investors gained confidence in the U.S. economic recovery and progress was made in resolving Greece's debt crisis. The Canadian market also saw gains, though the materials sector struggled due to rising costs for gold producers. Higher oil prices boosted energy stocks in Canada and posed risks to recovering economies and export competitiveness. Looking ahead, continued issues in Europe and volatility in oil prices may lead to increased short-term market fluctuations.
- The document discusses the minutes from the recent Fed meeting which revealed divisions among members on the outlook for inflation. This caused increased division among investors as stocks and bonds both rose, seen as a contradiction.
- It suggests the Fed is actually more worried about inflation than they state publicly. Their divisions may be an attempt to cover up these underlying concerns.
- Looking ahead, it says the upcoming ECB minutes could confirm the euro's downtrend or spark a breakout to the upside, completing a triple bottom pattern. It argues Draghi may have misled euro investors about the ECB's intentions.
The sell-off in high-yield bonds in May was primarily driven by fears over European sovereign debt rather than deteriorating fundamentals of corporate bond issuers. While markets may remain volatile, the author believes recent weakness presents an attractive opportunity because corporate fundamentals continue improving with surging profits and interest coverage ratios, while yields have increased and valuations are more attractive. Developments in Europe will continue being monitored, but domestic profit growth, yields, and valuations should ultimately have a greater impact and benefit high-yield bonds.
1) Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from triple-A for the first time, putting its debt on review. Ireland also had its credit rating cut below investment grade as its debt is expected to rise to 118% of GDP, indicating continued economic struggles.
2) Eurozone industrial production data showed growth slowed sharply in Q2, with weak data across peripheral countries. The recovery in the wider eurozone economy may grind to a halt.
3) China's trade surplus widened more than expected in June due to slowing import growth, adding to cash flooding the economy and complicating efforts to curb inflation. However, China's GDP and other indicators exceeded estimates, showing continued strong growth.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This annual market report provides an overview of the Indianapolis commercial real estate market in 2013. It begins with an economic overview discussing the sluggish global growth, high debt levels, and policy uncertainties hampering the recovery. The report highlights how clarity from policymakers is critical to boosting business and consumer confidence to strengthen demand. It also examines the interdependence between the U.S., European, and global economies. The report then analyzes conditions and forecasts for the industrial, office, retail, and land markets in Indianapolis.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
The document summarizes the global economic recession and provides an outlook for the US and global economies. It notes that the recession began in the US and spread internationally, with falling global demand. The US economy is expected to experience a sharp contraction, with declines in housing, consumer spending and business investment. Government stimulus policies are intended to help stabilize financial markets and boost demand. The outlook calls for continued declines in early 2009, but a gradual recovery beginning in late 2009, led initially by the US economy.
The document discusses the history and role of the Federal Reserve, including how it responded during the financial crisis by lowering interest rates and purchasing mortgage and Treasury securities to stabilize markets. While some argue the Fed should be ended due to concerns over its private ownership and lack of audits, most experts agree that the Fed plays an important role in the economy and its quantitative easing programs have helped support economic recovery.
Volatility returned to the markets as the S&P 500 fell 2% for the week due to concerns over the European debt crisis and slowing growth in China. Spain became the latest problem country in Europe, while China's economy expanded at its weakest pace in over three years. Additionally, weak earnings reports from several U.S. banks led to weakness in financial stocks. Conflicting economic data from the U.S. also contributed to uncertainty and market swings. The "quitters" indicator from the JOLTS report provided a positive signal about consumer confidence, despite a disappointing jobs report and decline in consumer sentiment surveys.
Weekly Market Snapshot, October 23, 2009Jeff Green
The economic data remained mixed, but were consistent with a moderate economic recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book, the anecdotal summary of conditions from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, noted “stabilization or modest improvement in many sectors” since the previous report. Reports of gains continued to outnumber declines, “but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered.”
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
In the second quarter of 2010, global economic growth showed signs of moderating which drove investors to shift assets into safe havens like government bonds, the US dollar, and gold. Concerns over fiscal tightening in Europe, policy changes in China, and weaker US economic data contributed to the more risk-averse investor sentiment. The Canadian market declined in the quarter but outperformed other developed markets, led higher by gold stocks, while cyclical sectors tied to global growth fared worst.
The document discusses the downgrading of the US credit rating and its potential effects. It notes that the US economy grew slowly in the first half of 2011 and consumer spending was low. The downgrade may lead to higher interest rates in the US and slower investment, though lower commodity prices could benefit India by reducing inflation and the current account deficit. There is uncertainty around how much the US slowdown will impact India's growth story. Some experts believe the impact will be temporary, while others see opportunities for India from a weaker dollar and decreased commodity prices in the "new normal" global economic environment.
The document summarizes an article from Jim Parker discussing the difficulty of forecasting market movements and interest rate changes. It notes that 24 out of 27 economists incorrectly forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates, but it decided to keep them unchanged instead. This surprised markets and highlighted the inability of even experts to consistently predict economic decisions. The document advocates for long-term investing using diversification and discipline over reliance on forecasts.
Based on proprietary data and analytic insight, this report gives Dun & Bradstreet's perspective on gloal business conditions for the first half of 2012.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
The document provides a weekly market snapshot and commentary from Green Financial Group. It summarizes recent economic indicator readings and testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. It also reviews index performance, interest rates, currencies and commodities. Key economic reports and events for the coming week are listed on an economic calendar.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
- In November, stock markets were under pressure for most of the month due to uncertainty around European and U.S. debt issues. However, on the last day central banks announced liquidity measures that boosted markets.
- The Canadian bond market saw decreasing yields as macro concerns over U.S. and European debt rose. Commodity prices such as oil and gold increased over the month.
- Health care and materials sectors performed well in Canada while information technology lagged. U.S. stocks remained favored over other global options due to relatively stable economic activity.
Global equity markets rose in February as investors gained confidence in the U.S. economic recovery and progress was made in resolving Greece's debt crisis. The Canadian market also saw gains, though the materials sector struggled due to rising costs for gold producers. Higher oil prices boosted energy stocks in Canada and posed risks to recovering economies and export competitiveness. Looking ahead, continued issues in Europe and volatility in oil prices may lead to increased short-term market fluctuations.
- The document discusses the minutes from the recent Fed meeting which revealed divisions among members on the outlook for inflation. This caused increased division among investors as stocks and bonds both rose, seen as a contradiction.
- It suggests the Fed is actually more worried about inflation than they state publicly. Their divisions may be an attempt to cover up these underlying concerns.
- Looking ahead, it says the upcoming ECB minutes could confirm the euro's downtrend or spark a breakout to the upside, completing a triple bottom pattern. It argues Draghi may have misled euro investors about the ECB's intentions.
The sell-off in high-yield bonds in May was primarily driven by fears over European sovereign debt rather than deteriorating fundamentals of corporate bond issuers. While markets may remain volatile, the author believes recent weakness presents an attractive opportunity because corporate fundamentals continue improving with surging profits and interest coverage ratios, while yields have increased and valuations are more attractive. Developments in Europe will continue being monitored, but domestic profit growth, yields, and valuations should ultimately have a greater impact and benefit high-yield bonds.
1) Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from triple-A for the first time, putting its debt on review. Ireland also had its credit rating cut below investment grade as its debt is expected to rise to 118% of GDP, indicating continued economic struggles.
2) Eurozone industrial production data showed growth slowed sharply in Q2, with weak data across peripheral countries. The recovery in the wider eurozone economy may grind to a halt.
3) China's trade surplus widened more than expected in June due to slowing import growth, adding to cash flooding the economy and complicating efforts to curb inflation. However, China's GDP and other indicators exceeded estimates, showing continued strong growth.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This annual market report provides an overview of the Indianapolis commercial real estate market in 2013. It begins with an economic overview discussing the sluggish global growth, high debt levels, and policy uncertainties hampering the recovery. The report highlights how clarity from policymakers is critical to boosting business and consumer confidence to strengthen demand. It also examines the interdependence between the U.S., European, and global economies. The report then analyzes conditions and forecasts for the industrial, office, retail, and land markets in Indianapolis.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
The document summarizes the global economic recession and provides an outlook for the US and global economies. It notes that the recession began in the US and spread internationally, with falling global demand. The US economy is expected to experience a sharp contraction, with declines in housing, consumer spending and business investment. Government stimulus policies are intended to help stabilize financial markets and boost demand. The outlook calls for continued declines in early 2009, but a gradual recovery beginning in late 2009, led initially by the US economy.
The document discusses the history and role of the Federal Reserve, including how it responded during the financial crisis by lowering interest rates and purchasing mortgage and Treasury securities to stabilize markets. While some argue the Fed should be ended due to concerns over its private ownership and lack of audits, most experts agree that the Fed plays an important role in the economy and its quantitative easing programs have helped support economic recovery.
Volatility returned to the markets as the S&P 500 fell 2% for the week due to concerns over the European debt crisis and slowing growth in China. Spain became the latest problem country in Europe, while China's economy expanded at its weakest pace in over three years. Additionally, weak earnings reports from several U.S. banks led to weakness in financial stocks. Conflicting economic data from the U.S. also contributed to uncertainty and market swings. The "quitters" indicator from the JOLTS report provided a positive signal about consumer confidence, despite a disappointing jobs report and decline in consumer sentiment surveys.
Weekly Market Snapshot, October 23, 2009Jeff Green
The economic data remained mixed, but were consistent with a moderate economic recovery. The Fed’s Beige Book, the anecdotal summary of conditions from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, noted “stabilization or modest improvement in many sectors” since the previous report. Reports of gains continued to outnumber declines, “but virtually every reference to improvement was qualified as either small or scattered.”
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
In the second quarter of 2010, global economic growth showed signs of moderating which drove investors to shift assets into safe havens like government bonds, the US dollar, and gold. Concerns over fiscal tightening in Europe, policy changes in China, and weaker US economic data contributed to the more risk-averse investor sentiment. The Canadian market declined in the quarter but outperformed other developed markets, led higher by gold stocks, while cyclical sectors tied to global growth fared worst.
• Infrastructure—the other big fix
• What is the stock market saying about earnings?
• As short-term markets thaw, bond investors focus on long-term risk
• Hedge funds suffer their worst month ever
• Does a $1 trillion deficit matter?
• Q&A: Sizing up Obama’s policies and politics
- The S&P 500 had its best year since 1997 in 2013, returning over 32%, surprising many investors and professionals who had predicted a market decline.
- Many experts warned of factors that could trigger a recession in 2013, such as stagnating US growth, the European debt crisis, and slowing emerging markets, but the US stock market rose steadily throughout the year against these expectations.
- While some issues like Detroit's bankruptcy filing led some to believe a shift in municipal finance was underway, US stocks continued to perform well, confounding negative predictions.
The Federal Reserve announced "Operation Twist" to lower longer-term interest rates by selling short-term Treasuries and buying long-term ones. While interest rates declined as intended, stocks fell over 6% due to fears of a Greek default, global financial crisis, slowing growth in China, and declining copper prices indicating weaker global growth. Dividends have provided over a third of the S&P 500's total return over 80 years and can enhance returns and provide stability, especially in a low interest rate environment.
- The Federal Reserve announced it would sell short-term Treasury securities and buy longer-term securities to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which succeeded in lowering bond yields. However, the stock market declined 6.4% as fears grew of a Greek default and slowing global economic growth.
- While price appreciation gets more attention, dividends have accounted for about one-third of stock market returns over 80 years and allowed investors to benefit in both rising and falling markets. Receiving and reinvesting dividends added an average of 2.3% annually to S&P 500 returns over the past decade.
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners 1Q12Michael Durante
Blackwall Partners posted a 30% return for Q1 2012. They believe financial firms are fundamentally strong but undervalued due to political attacks exaggerating risk. The fundamentals of financials are appealing, with record profits and excess capital. However, low valuations and high volatility make financial stocks a "winning hand". The author argues the equity risk premium has collapsed to levels not seen since WWI and negative yield gaps indicate a bull market. They believe regulations holding back banks will be reduced, allowing earnings growth and higher payouts that will drive financial stock prices and ownership higher over time. However, some volatility is expected in the short term.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered, unlike previous recessions where recovery took 2-3 years. Reasons for the slow recovery include financial crisis-related slowdowns, policy uncertainty, extended unemployment benefits, and euro crisis uncertainty. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually spark new hiring if companies begin spending on growth.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
Weekly Market Snapshot, September 25, 2009Jeff Green
Recent economic data were mixed and somewhat disappointing, but still consistent with a gradual economic recovery. In August, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for a fifth consecutive month. Existing home sales slipped 2.7% in August, following a 15.2% rise over the four previous months. New home sales rose in August, but less than expected.
Weekly Market Snapshot, September 18, 2009Jeff Green
The economic data remained consistent with the view that the recession has likely ended. Retail sales for August were boosted considerably by the “Cash for Clunkers” program. Ex-autos, sales rose more than anticipated. Industrial production, an important coincident economic indicator, improved in August for a second monthly gain. Residential construction figures were mixed in August, with a slight weakening in single-family activity (but the trend is higher). Inflation figures reflected higher energy prices – amplified by the seasonal adjustment – but core inflation remained mild.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, two legendary investors, disagree on bonds. Buffett sees bonds as risky in times of inflation while Gross favors bonds in the short term due to low interest rates. Their views may differ based on timeframe, with Buffett looking 7-10 years out and Gross a couple years. Additionally, indexes may not fully reflect market performance due to decisions around their construction.
The letter summarizes recent market volatility and economic concerns. It discusses factors that have contributed to increased market uncertainty such as weakening job and housing data, European debt issues, and political battles in Washington. It also notes that forced selling due to raised commodity margin requirements exacerbated a pullback in commodity prices. However, the author believes the economic expansion remains intact and the recent turbulence is temporary. While inflation and growth concerns may rise in coming months, a return to recession is unlikely.
The letter summarizes recent market volatility and economic concerns. It discusses factors that have contributed to increased market uncertainty such as weakening job and housing data, European debt issues, and political battles in Washington. It also notes that forced selling due to raised commodity margin requirements exacerbated a pullback in commodity prices. However, the author believes the economic expansion remains intact and the recent turbulence is temporary. While inflation and growth concerns may rise in coming months, a return to recession is unlikely.
The letter summarizes recent market volatility and economic concerns. It discusses factors that have contributed to increased market turbulence, including higher commodity prices, European debt issues, and decelerating U.S. job growth. However, the author believes the U.S. economy remains poised for moderate growth and that the market has become overly pessimistic. While supply disruptions and other temporary factors may cause short-term slowing, inflation and growth are likely to be bigger concerns going forward than a return to recession.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined two major risks facing the US economy: 1) the ongoing Eurozone fiscal and banking crisis and its potential effects on the US, and 2) the unsustainable path of the US fiscal situation including the looming "fiscal cliff". While the US has little control over Europe, the fiscal cliff is within Congress's power to address. If no action is taken, the automatic spending cuts and tax increases could throw the economy back into recession according to estimates. Bernanke stated the Fed is ready to take further action if needed to support the recovery.
1. Stocks Tumble as Earnings Disappoint - WSJ.com http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870491330457537...
Dow Jones Reprints: This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers, use the Order
Reprints tool at the bottom of any article or visit www.djreprints.com
See a sample reprint in PDF format. Order a reprint of this article now
TODAY'S MARKETS JULY 16, 2010, 12:33 P.M. ET
Stocks Tumble as Earnings Disappoint
By J ON A TH AN CH EN G And DO NN A K AR D OS Y E SA LA V IC H
Investors pulled out of U.S. stocks as a double dose of discouraging reports on the corporate sector and the broader economy sent
the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 200 points.
All 30 of the blue-chip index's components slumped amid concerns the economy isn't recovering quickly enough to spur
corporate growth. The selloff accelerated in midday trading after a report showed consumer sentiment waned, the latest in a
string of downbeat data that slammed Wall Street.
On the corporate front, investors turned pessimistic about growth prospects for major U.S. companies as Bank of America,
Citigroup and General Electric posted lackluster results. There also was concern about how financial-regulatory overhaul will hurt
earnings for the banking sector, which was the biggest decliner on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index on Friday.
"We're just getting a more consistent picture of very weak growth," said Rex Macey, chief investment officer at Wilmington
Trust. "We're not getting as much growth as we had hoped, but we're still in the camp of growth."
For much of the week, stocks had been able to rise on the back of strong earnings from several bellwether companies. The market
began to reverse those gains on Thursday, snapping the Dow's seven-day winning streak. The Dow is down 0.3% for the week,
while the S&P 500 has given up 0.5%
The Dow was recently
Markets Hub:
Earnings Euphoria down 201 points, or 2%,
Fades to 10157. The Nasdaq
3:54
Composite declined
After an optimistic start to the
week, stocks are deep in the red 2.4% to 2195; the S&P
Friday as big name companies like Google, GE and Bank of 500 declined 2.3% to
America feed concerns about the pace of earnings growth. An
undertone of discouraging U.S. economic data as well as the 1072.
potential fallout from financial regulation is also weighing on
stocks. Paul Vigna, George Stahl and Drew Dowell discuss. "The market keeps
making lower highs and
Associated Press
In this July 15, 2010 photograph, trader John Bowers works on lower lows," since April,
the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. said Ralph Fogel,
investment strategist at
Fogel Neale Partners.
Market Data Center
"As long as this keeps happening, then I want to be very underweight in
Most Actives | Gainers | Losers
equities."
New Highs and Lows | Money Flows
Intraday Futures | Currencies The potential longer-term fallout from the financial-regulation bill that the
Data: Overview | Treasurys | Forex | Crude Senate passed Thursday also weighed on the sector. Citigroup shares fell 4%,
1 of 2 7/16/10 12:55 PM
2. Stocks Tumble as Earnings Disappoint - WSJ.com http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870491330457537...
MarketBeat | Deals of the Day J.P. Morgan Chase fell 3.1%, and Bank of America tumbled 7.6%.
Goldman Sachs Group bucked the trend to rise 2.2%, although the stock was
Journal Community
up as much as 4.7% in earlier trading, as the investment bank's settlement
with the Securities and Exchange Commission lifted an overhang on the
stock.
BP slipped 3.9%, although the oil giant's well-integrity test survived the
night as pressures steadily rose, showing that a newly placed cap might have
the ability to completely shut an overflowing well in the Gulf of Mexico.
Despite Friday's declines, the stock is up 10% this week and up 40% off the
multiyear lows hit last month.
Investors will also be watching Apple, as the maker of the iPhone 4 struggles to regain consumers' confidence over its handling of
antenna reception problems on its top-selling smartphone. The company has scheduled a news conference for Friday afternoon.
Apple shares were trading down 0.7%.
In other economic data, the Labor Department said the seasonally adjusted consumer price index fell 0.1% last month, less than
an unrevised 0.2% in May but a bigger decline than expected. Economists had been looking for the rate to remain unchanged.
Core consumer prices, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, were up 0.2%, more than the 0.1% increase expected by
economists. That larger-than-expected increase in core prices shouldn't change expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates
at record lows well into next year, though it will likely ease fears of deflation.
In other markets, the euro hit a two-month high against the dollar, breaking the $1.30 barrier before slipping back slightly.
Treasurys moved higher, with the yield on the 10-year note falling below 3.0%.
Oil futures fell, while gold also dropped.
Steven Russolillo contributed to this article.
Write to Donna Kardos Yesalavich at donna.yesalavich@dowjones.com
Copyright 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal
use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit
www.djreprints.com
2 of 2 7/16/10 12:55 PM