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World Downstream Maintenance
Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
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•	 Prospects
•	 Technologies
•	 Markets
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 40World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
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Market Forecast: By Asset Type
Chapter 5 : Asset Integrity
Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Expenditure($billions)
Expenditure to total $ bn over the
2015-2019 period.
Refineries and Petrochemicals to ac-
count for % of forecast expenditure.
CAGR from 2015-2019:
% Refineries;
% Petrochemicals;
% Gas processing;
% LNG.
Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019
Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019
35%
45%
9%
11%
Refineries Petrochemicals
Gas Processing LNG
34%
45%
9%
12%
The downstream market for Asset Integrity
is similar to the Asset Services market – it is
dominated by expenditure on petrochemi-
cal plants and refineries, which account for
% of total expenditure over 2015-2019,
in large part due to the sheer size of the
installed base.
An estimated $ bn and $ bn is to be
spent on petrochemical and refinery facili-
ties over the next five years. LNG and gas
processing are much smaller market sectors
with combined expenditure totalling almost
$ bn. However, LNG spend will be in-
creasing at the fastest rate: a CAGR of %
over the 2015-2019 period.
Similarly to Asset Services, the large growth
in LNG Asset Integrity expenditure can be
attributed to the increase in LNG facilities
in regions such as Australia and North
America.
$ bn $ bn
2015 2019
$millions 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Refinery
Petrochemical
Gas Processing
LNG
Total
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World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
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od
Supply Chain – Middle East
Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology
The Middle East is chara
cteris
ed by
operators
awarding multiple contr
acts
direct to lots of differ
ent small
comp
anies, with the aim of achie
ving
perce
ived value
for mone
y. Bund
ling
is still uncommo
n.Whilst infras
tructure is agein
g, the
concept of fabric
maintenan
ce has
still not been
fully incorporat
ed by
the indus
try. In addition, much
of
the maintenan
ce work
is carrie
d out
in-ho
use.
EPC contr
actor
s (brow
nfield
and
green
field)
contr
act fabric
mainte-
nance
and other
specialist servic
e
provi
ders for servic
es such
as the
prepa
ration
and applic
ation
of spe-
cialist
coatings on modi
ficatio
n and
newb
uild work
.The Middle Easte
rn market is char-
acterised by many
local
provi
ders
acros
s all servic
e lines.
NOTE
: This supply chain
is intend
ed to illustrate the most
comm
on routes to market for the
main
servic
e lines.
The comp
anies
in each
box are intend
ed to be indica
tive key market players
not an exhau
stive portra
yal.
ADN
OCDolph
in Energ
yEquat
eKNPC
PDO
Petro
Rabig
hQatar
Petro
leum
Sabia
Sahar
a PCCSaudi
Aram
co
Saudi
Servic
es & OpsSinop
ecSipche
m ABS Consu
ltingBurea
u Verita
sDNV Intert
ekLloyd
s Regist
er
Oper
ators
Cons
ultancy
APM
Petro
maint
Desco
n
Intert
ek Qcon
SIS
Wood
Group
Asset Integrity Cont
racto
rs
Integrated
Services
Indivi
dual Services
Desco
nDietsm
annKhara
fi Natio
nalSaudi
Servic
es & OpsWood
Group
O&M
Cont
racto
rs
APM
Petro
maint
Herte
l
Intert
ekStork
Techn
ical Servic
es
Small
local provid
ersInspe
ction
Cont
racto
rs
APM
Petro
maintDesco
n
Herte
l
Qcon
SISSmall
local provid
ersE&I Cont
racto
rs
APM
Petro
maint
Herte
lIntert
ek
SISStork
Techn
ical Servic
es
Small
local provid
ersMech
anical Cont
racto
rs
Applu
sHerte
lIntert
ek
Qcon
SISStork
Techn
ical Servic
es
Small
local provid
ersFabric Maintenan
ce
APM
Petro
maintDesco
n
Herte
l
SISStork
Techn
ical Servic
es
Small
local provid
ersProce
ss Equip
. Cont
racto
rs
Alfana
rAPM
Petro
maintStork
Techn
ical Servic
es
Wood
GroupSmall
local provid
ersRotat
ing Equip
. Cont
racto
rs
Ali-Ru
shaid
Constr
uctionDAS
Group
Kentz
Khara
fi Natio
nal
Petro
fac
Saipem
Wood
GroupWorle
y Parso
nsEPC Cont
racto
rs
“The
[business]
culture is to give out
multiple contr
acts to lots of differ
ent
small
comp
anies. It’s a convolute
d supply
chain
…It’s
about value
for mone
y.”
Engin
eering Services Company
“In the Middle East I see a greater need
for asset
integrity and fabric
maintenan
ce. Scale
of infras
tructure and its age is as significant
as anyw
here.
Integrity is a new concept acros
s
the region due to a numb
er of unfor
tunat
e accidents that have
focus
ed atten
tion onto
asset
integrity servic
es.”Engin
eering Services Company
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
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estwo
od
Asset Lifecycle
Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology
Pre-FEED
Studies
and Conceptual
Design
Operations &
Maintenance
Modifications
Decomm
issioning
CAPEX Phase
Liabilities
OPEX Phase
Com
missioning
and Start-up
Construction
FEED
Maintenance:
Ongo
ing inspe
ction, repair and upkeep of down
stream assets is a vital proce
ss within the
down
stream plant
lifecycle. Maintenan
ce servic
es reduc
e operational costs
over
the long-
term, maximise
uptim
e of the facility and ensur
e the efficie
nt running of all equip
ment
within
it. High
ongoing levels
of maintenan
ce can also prolo
ng the asset’s life; significantl
y pushi
ng
back
the plant’s decommis
sionin
g date.
Maintenan
ce servic
es are essen
tial to ensur
e the asset
is able to perfo
rm its requi
red function
effectively
and efficie
ntly whilst adhering to any health, safety
and environme
ntal regulations
in place
.
Asset Services
Asset Services encompas
s a numb
er of servic
e lines all imple
ment
ed with the
aim to reduc
e the operational cost and down
time
of the various electrical,
mech
anical, rotating and proce
ss equip
ment
that is vital to the smoo
th running
of the facility.
Mech
anical Services
Electrical & Instru
ment
ation
Fabric Maintenan
ce
Rotat
ing Equip
ment
Proce
ss equip
ment
Asset Integrity
Asset Integrity servic
es aim to prolo
ng the down
stream lifecycle throu
gh the
mana
geme
nt and developm
ent of maintenan
ce strate
gies, ensur
ing maximum
plant
uptim
e and an efficie
nt maintenan
ce sched
ule.
Cons
ultancy
Asset Mana
geme
nt
Integrity Services
The servic
e lines covered in this report are split into two sectio
ns:
“Prod
uct life-cy
cle is regulated by indus
try
stand
ards…
which
in turn affect
client
s’
requi
reme
nts. Valve
s should serve
30
years
, with regular maintenan
ce typica
lly
every
five years
.”
Oil & Gas Major
The typica
l lifecycle of a down
stream asset
which
demo
nstrates the occurrenc
e of
maintenan
ce servic
es.
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
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World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
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od
Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output
Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators
The two most
comm
on petro
chem
ical
feeds
tocks
are olefin
s and arom
atics.The major hydro
carbo
n sourc
es
used
in producing
petro
chem
icals
are obtained from
gas proce
ssing
and
petro
leum
refining.
The main
yields
from
refining are
gasoline, keros
ene, distill
ate fuel and
residual fuel.
In 2014
US refine
ries produced
45% of
their
yield
as gasoline, although yields
can be altere
d in respo
nse to price.
Figure
15: US Refine
ry Yield 2014Source
: EIA
45%
10%
30%
3%
20%
Figure
16: Petroc
hemic
al Feeds
tocks
and Outputs
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
Steam Cracker
Methane
Ethane
Propane
Butane
Plastics
Resins
Fibers
Textiles
ElastomersRubbers
Solvents
CoatingsDyes & PigmentsAdhesivesChemicals
Other Consumer Products
Methanol
Ethylene
PropyleneButadiene
Benzene
Toulene
Xylene
Naptha
Moto
r GasolineKerosene
Jet FuelDistillate FuelResid
ual FuelOthe
r
Refining YieldsThe chart
show
s the yield
from
US refine
r-
ies in 2014. Refiners can adjust product
yields
in respo
nse to chang
ing product
prices and other
market conditions
by
varyin
g refine
ry proce
sses and the types
of
crude
oil they choose to refine
. The refine
ry
outpu
t will also be deter
mined by the com-
plexity of the refine
ry; those
with a cataly
tic
converter
are generally more
comp
lex and
able to refine
heavi
er crude
s.The yields
sum to more
than 100%
due
to the proce
ssing
gain from
refining; the
volum
e by which
total
outpu
t is greater
than input
for a given
perio
d of time.
Dur-
ing refining proce
sses such
as fluid cataly
tic
crack
ing, volum
es can increase when
large,
heavy
molecules
are broke
n
into smaller and lighte
r molecules
that take
up more
space
.
Petrochemical process
The diagram show
s some
of the petro
-
chem
ical feeds
tocks
and the consu
mer
good
s produced
by them
. The two most
comm
on petro
chem
ical classe
s are olefin
s
and arom
atics.
Olefins includ
e ethylene,
propylene
and butad
iene and can be used
to produce indus
trial chem
icals,
plastics and
rubbe
r. Arom
atics includ
e benzene, toule
ne
and xylen
e (BTX
).
The main
hydro
carbo
n sourc
es used
in a
petro
chem
ical plant
are either obtained
from
gas proce
ssing
(methane, ethan
e, pro-
pane, butan
e) or petro
leum
refining (napt
ha
and BTX)
.
Gas-p
roduced ethan
e is typica
lly the
favou
red feeds
tock acros
s the petro
chem
i-
cal indus
try due to lower costs. With
the
majority of European
petro
chem
ical plants
focus
ing on naphtha-b
ased
crack
ing, this
has place
d press
ure on European
plants in
recen
t years
.
However,
the recen
t crude
oil price
down
turn has prom
pted
a sharp
declin
e in
the price
of naphtha. Ethan
e had an almost
tenfo
ld advan
tage over
naphtha at the start
of 2014. This had decre
ased
to less than
twofo
ld by Dece
mber
2014, benefiting
Eu-
ropean petro
chem
ical plants by increasing
their
margins. Altho
ugh, these
benefits may
be short
lived
depending
on the longe
vity
of oil price
declin
e.
“Margins are high curre
ntly, but it
really
depends on the equip
ment
in
the refine
ry and the comp
lexity. The
cataly
tic crack
er is the most
comp
lex
part of the refine
ry”
Integrated
Downstream Oper
ator
Operator budgets tighten, but
Downstream Maintenance spend still
sees rise
Between 2015 and 2019, global downstream
asset maintenance spend is expected to total
$322 billion (bn), an increase of 12% when
compared to the previous five-year period.
In 2014, expenditure totalled $63bn for the
world’s global downstream asset population of
approximately 13,000 facilities, DW expect this
to increase to $71bn by 2019. Despite a minor
drop in 2015, resulting from industry-wide price
deflation of equipment and services and budget
tightening, an ageing existing asset population as
well as a number of new installations drive the
overall growth.
By sector, Asset Services accounts for the
majority of expenditure, 72%, with Asset
Integrity accounting for the remaining 28%.
North America and Asia dominate global
expenditure, accounting for 35% and 28% of
spend over the forecast period respectively. US
downstream facilities are also expected to see
a revival as a result of the recent shale boom.
The World Downstream Maintenance Market
Forecast 2015-2019 analyses the demand for
maintenance in two key equipment and service
lines: downstream asset services and down-
stream asset integrity services, and across four
facility types: refineries, petrochemical plants,
gas processing and LNG.
The report includes:
•	 Drivers & Indicators – in depth discussion
of the factors encouraging asset mainte-
nance expenditure including: E&P trends, oil
& gas prices, analysis of the recent oil price
downturn), downstream facility popula-
tion, asset lifecycle, policies & regulation
and trends and drivers detailed by refinery,
petrochemical, gas processing and LNG.
•	 Service Line Analysis – for downstream as-
set services and asset integrity services split
out by service line, asset type and region
with competitive landscape and detailed
supply chain analysis.
•	 Regional Analysis – expenditure by service
line 2010-2019 with trend commentary
for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe
& FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North
America and Western Europe.
© 2015
Douglas-Westwood
33
World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
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asing
this docum
ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
to be copied in part or whole
or otherwise circula
ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Methodology: OverviewChapter 4 : Asset Services
Assumptio
ns
Asset based
As the asset
varies by age, capac
ity and
region the cost assum
ption
is adjusted.
Asset type
As each
asset
type perfo
rms differ
ent
proce
sses the cost assum
ption
is
adjusted to reflec
t this.
For LNG
facilit
ies, DW
accou
nts for
the differ
ences
in proce
ss and com-
plexity of export and import terminals
by adjusting the cost assum
ption
.
Regulation
and culture
These are adjusted for in the cost as-
sump
tion by apply
ing a regional index
.
Onshore
Douglas-Westwood
In-House
Database
Asse
tData
Mod
ellingProc
ess
Refining
Petrochemicals
Gas Processing
LNG
Expo
rt
Import
Capacity
Varying facility sizes
and the
associated level of maintenance
required is accounted for by the
use of a cost assumption per
barrel for refining, per mcf for
gas processing and per tonne for
petrochemicals and LNG.
Age
Age multiplier applied to all
assets to account for the extra
maintenance requirements as
facilities age.
Region
A regional index is applied to
account for environm
ental,
labour and regulatory differences
between regions.
Asset Integrity Mark
et
Comprised of:
Cons
ultancy
Asset Mana
geme
nt
Integrity Services
Asset Services Mark
et
Comprised of:
Electrical & Instru
ment
ation
Fabric Maintenan
ce
Mech
anical Services
Proce
ss Equip
ment
Rotat
ing Equip
ment
Annual Cost Assumption by Service Line (including Inflation Assumption)
The cost assumption will vary by asset
type,
accounting for the variations
in comp
lexity
of equip
ment
and mach
inery
used. DW
assign different cost assumptions for export and import terminals due to the higher comp
lexity
of export terminals.
Brownfield Expenditure per Asset
© 2015
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World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
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asing
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ent, your organ
isation agree
s that it will not copy or allow
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ted in any form any of the contents without the writte
n permission
of Douglas-W
estwo
od
Australasia
Chapter 6 : Regional Summary
Figure
39: Maintenan
ce Expenditur
e in Australasia
2010
-2019
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Expe
nditu
re($billions)
AI: Consultancy
AI: Asset Mana
geme
nt
AI: Integrity Services
AS: Mech
anical
AS: Electrical & Instru
mentation
AS: Fabric Maintenan
ce
Expenditure to total
$ bn over
the
2015-2019
perio
d, grow
ing at
%
CAG
R.
Grow
th of
% from
prece
ding five-
year perio
d – fastes
t grow
ing region.% of forec
ast globa
l spend
.Large
LNG
facilit
ies coming onstr
eam
durin
g the forec
ast perio
d drivin
g
grow
th.
CAG
R from
2015-2019
:
% Mech
anical Services;% E&I;
% Fabric Maintenan
ce;% Rotating Equip
ment
;
% Proce
ss Equip
ment
;
% Cons
ultancy;% Asset Mana
geme
nt;% Integrity Services.
% Refineries;% Petro
chem
icals;% Gas Proce
ssing;% LNG.
Table
14: Maintenan
ce Expenditur
e in Australasia
by Servic
e Line 2014
-2019
Table
15: Maintenan
ce Expenditur
e in Australasia
by Asset
Type 2014
-2019
Expenditure in Austr
alasia
is set to total
$
over
2015-2019
. This is an increase
of
% from
the previous five years
, due
mainly to LNG
facilities within the region
coming online in the coming years
; addin
g
some
% to curre
nt capac
ity.Over
2010-2014
, LNG
plants accou
nted
for
% of maintenan
ce spend
in the region,
refine
ries
%, petro
chem
ical plants %
and gas proce
ssing
plants %.Durin
g the forec
ast perio
d the comp
osi-
tion of expenditure will chang
e consider-
ably as Austr
alasia
invests heavi
ly in new
LNG
facilities. LNG
will accou
nt for
% of
expenditure durin
g the perio
d, petro
chem
i-
cals for
%, refine
ries for
% and gas
proce
ssing
for %.
Desp
ite being
a relatively small
market, the
continued
onset of LNG
plants post-
2014
mean
s that Austr
alasia
will be one of the
stron
gest grow
th regions, also with stead
y
grow
th in refine
ry, petro
chem
ical and
gas proce
ssing
plant
maintenan
ce spend
.
Furth
ermo
re, LNG
maintenan
ce spend
ing is
likely
to see
% CAG
R over
the forec
ast
perio
d as additional
proje
cts come
online.
Desp
ite the cance
llation of the Brow
se
LNG
expo
rt proje
ct in Austr
alia, a numb
er
of LNG
trains
are expected to come
online
throu
gh the forec
ast perio
d. This will drive
dema
nd for the asset
maintenan
ce servic
es
necessitated by the large
capac
ity increase.
But despite stron
g grow
th between 2015-
2019, DW
expect Austr
alasia
to only
accou
nt for % of globa
l plant
mana
geme
nt
expenditure.
Refinery capac
ity to see little increase over
the forec
ast, with only the Marsden Point
proje
ct in New
Zeala
nd expected to have
a
significant
affect
on throu
ghput. As a result,
refine
ry maintenan
ce expenditure is ex-
pecte
d to be predo
minantly driven by cost
inflation, thoug
h there
may be some
impact
from
increased
capac
ity. A simila
r story
is
likely
for petro
chem
icals.
Gas proce
ssing
on the other
hand
should
see relatively stron
g grow
th in maintenan
ce
spend
, as super
major investmen
t drives
capac
ity increases throu
gh the forec
ast.
$ millio
ns
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Asset
Servic
es
Mech
anical
E & I
Fabric
Maint
enanc
e
Rotat
ing Equip
mentProce
ss Equip
ment
Asset
Integr
ity
Consu
ltancy
6
Asset
Manag
emen
t
Integr
ity Servic
es
Total
$ millio
ns
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Refine
ry
Petro
chem
icalsGas Proce
ssing
LNG
Total
World Downstream Maintenance
Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight
e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
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companies, top-10 oilfield services companies
and top-10 private equity firms.
An essential report – for financial institu-
tions, equipment manufacturers, operations &
maintenance companies and contractors, oil
& gas companies and government agencies &
departments wanting to make more informed
investment decisions.
Our proven approach includes:
Unique and proprietary data – updated
year-round from published sources and insight
gained from industry consultation.
Detailed methodology – the report uses
research from our own in-house downstream
databases for refineries, petrochemicals, gas
processing and LNG, an information system ex-
clusive to DW, to form the basis of the models.
Assumptions used to generate market demand
are the result of our primary and secondary
research. Demand-side analysis by service line
provides a metric on which to establish future
opportunities and provide a context for market
share assessment.
Comprehensive market forecasts – examina-
tion, analysis and 10-year coverage of expendi-
ture.
Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s
commitment to delivering value for our clients,
all our market forecasts have a concise layout
consisting of industry background and support-
ing materials condensed to enable quick review
with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points
throughout.
ISBN 978-1-910045-16-9
"Douglas-Westwood are the
sector study experts"
- E&P Company
"One of the most well-read
and well respected research
consultancies in oil and gas"
- Financial Analyst
2015 World Downstream Maintenance
Market Forecast
Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
2015-2019
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Table of Contents
1 Summary and Conclusions......................................7
Summary......................................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusions.................................................................................................................................... 9
2 Drivers and Indicators........................................... 10
Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand .............................................................11
Changing Energy Mix..................................................................................................................12
Natural Gas..................................................................................................................................13
LNG...............................................................................................................................................14
Oil – Supply & Demand .............................................................................................................15
Oil Price Volatility.......................................................................................................................16
Refining Margins ..........................................................................................................................17
Downstream Facility Population..............................................................................................18
Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output..............................................................................19
Refining Trends & Drivers.........................................................................................................20
Petrochemical Trends & Drivers..............................................................................................21
Gas Processing Trends & Drivers............................................................................................22
LNG Trends & Drivers...............................................................................................................23
Politics and Regulation...............................................................................................................24
3 Market Structure and Methodology .................. 25
Asset Lifecycle.............................................................................................................................26
Asset Services – Definitions .....................................................................................................27
Asset Integrity – Definitions.....................................................................................................28
Supply Chain – Continental Europe........................................................................................29
Supply Chain – North America................................................................................................30
Supply Chain – Middle East.......................................................................................................31
4 Asset Services ......................................................... 32
Methodology: Overview............................................................................................................33
Barriers & Limitations................................................................................................................34
Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................35
Market Forecast: By Asset Type ..............................................................................................36
Market Forecast: By Region......................................................................................................37
5 Asset Integrity......................................................... 38
Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................39
Market Forecast: By Asset Type ..............................................................................................40
Market Forecast: By Region......................................................................................................41
6 Regional Summary.................................................. 42
Regional Summary.......................................................................................................................43
Africa.............................................................................................................................................45
Asia ................................................................................................................................................46
Australasia ....................................................................................................................................47
Eastern Europe & FSU................................................................................................................48
Latin America...............................................................................................................................49
Middle East...................................................................................................................................50
North America............................................................................................................................51
Western Europe..........................................................................................................................52
7 Appendix .................................................................. 53
Top 20 Countries .......................................................................................................................54
Data and Text Conventions......................................................................................................55
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Figures
Figure 1: Global Maintenance Expenditure by Region 2010-2019........................................................8
Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035...............................................11
Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013...................................................11
Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix 1980-2013...........................................................................................12
Figure 5: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) ................................................................................................13
Figure 6: Natural Gas Prices ($/mbtu)..............................................................................................................13
Figure 7: LNG Supply by Region (excludes FLNG)...................................................................................14
Figure 8: FLNG Capex ...........................................................................................................................................14
Figure 9: Oil Price & Demand...............................................................................................................................15
Figure 10: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 ...................................................................15
Figure 11: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015.........................16
Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets with Brent at $59 (20 February 2015).......................16
Figure 13: Historic Brent cracking margins relative to Brent oil price (Jan 08 – Feb 15) .......17
Figure 14: Global Downstream Population 2009-2018...........................................................................18
Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014......................................................................................................................19
Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs....................................................................................19
Figure 17: Global Oil Refinery Utilisation........................................................................................................20
Figure 18: Global Refining Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ...........................................................................20
Figure 19: Global Petrochemical Price Index 2009-2015........................................................................21
Figure 20: Global Petrochemical Capacity in 2014 and 2019 .............................................................21
Figure 21: Global Gas Processing Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ...........................................................22
Figure 22: LNG Demand Outlook 2005-2030.............................................................................................23
Figure 23: Global LNG Capacity in 2014 and 2019 .................................................................................23
Figure 24: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019.....................................................35
Figure 25: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019...................35
Figure 26: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 .......................................................36
Figure 27: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.....................36
Figure 28: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2019................................................................37
Figure 29: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019..............................37
Figure 30: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019...................................................39
Figure 31: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.................39
Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 .....................................................40
Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019...................40
Figure 34: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2019..............................................................41
Figure 35: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019............................41
Figure 36: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2010-2019.........................................................................44
Figure 37: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa 2010-2019.....................................................................45
Figure 38: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia 2010-2019.........................................................................46
Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019...........................................................47
Figure 40: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU 2010-2019.............................................................48
Figure 41: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America 2010-2019....................................................49
Figure 42: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East 2010-2019.........................................................50
Figure 43: Maintenance Expenditure in North America 2010-2019.................................................51
Figure 44: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe 2010-2019..............................................52
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Tables
Table 1: Primary Energy Demand Growth by Region...............................................................................11
Table 2: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019..........................................................35
Table 3: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019............................................................36
Table 4: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2014-2019.....................................................................37
Table 5: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019........................................................39
Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019..........................................................40
Table 7: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2014-2019...................................................................41
Table 8: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2014-2019.............................................................................44
Table 9: Global Forecast Maintenance Expenditure by Asset Type & Service Line 2015-1944
Table 10: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Service Line 2014-2019.....................................45
Table 11: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Asset Type 2014-2019 .......................................45
Table 12: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Service Line 2014-2019.........................................46
Table 13: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Asset Type 2014-2019...........................................46
Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019...........................47
Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019.............................47
Table 16: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Service Line 2014-2019.............................48
Table 17: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...............................48
Table 18: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Service Line 2014-2019....................49
Table 19: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Asset Type 2014-2019......................49
Table 20: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Service Line 2014-2019.........................50
Table 21: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Asset Type 2014-2019...........................50
Table 22: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Service Line 2014-2019.................51
Table 23: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Asset Type 2014-2019...................51
Table 24: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Service Line 2014-2019..............52
Table 25: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Asset Type 2014-2019................52
Table 26: Top 20 Countries – Refining Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019........................54
Table 27: Top 20 Countries – Petrochemical Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ..........54
Table 28: Top 20 Countries – Gas Processing Expenditure 2015 & 2019.....................................54
Table 29: Top 20 Countries – LNG Expenditure 2015 & 2019...........................................................54
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Notes & Acknowledgements
About Us
Disclaimer
This report is a Douglas-Westwood (DW)
study and all rights are reserved, whether
this pertains to the body of the report or any
information contained within. The information
contained in this document is believed to be
accurate, but no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made by Douglas-West-
wood as to the completeness, accuracy or
fairness of any information contained in it, and
we do not accept any responsibility in relation
to such information whether fact, opinion or
conclusion that the reader may draw. The
views expressed are those of the individual
authors and do not necessarily represent those
of the publisher.
While we have made every attempt to ensure
the information contained in this document
has been obtained from reliable sources,
Douglas-Westwood is not responsible for any
errors or omissions, or for the results obtained
from the use of this information. All informa-
tion in this document is provided “as is”,
with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy,
timeliness or of the results obtained from the
use of this information, and without warranty
of any kind, express or implied, including, but
not limited to warranties of performance, mer-
chantability and fitness for a particular purpose.
Nothing herein shall to any extent substitute
for the independent investigations and the
sound technical and business judgment of the
reader. Laws and regulations are continually
changing, and can be interpreted only in light
of particular factual situations.
World Downstream Maintenance
Market Forecast
is published by:
Douglas-Westwood Limited,
20 East Street
Faversham
Kent
ME13 8AS, UK
tel: +44 203 4799 505
fax: +44 1795 594748
admin@douglaswestwood.com
© Copyright Douglas-Westwood
Limited 2015
By purchasing this document, your
organisation agrees that it will not
copy or allow to be copied in part or
whole or otherwise circulated in any
form any of the contents without the
written permission of the publishers.
Additional copies of this study may be
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rate.
DW report number 565-15
ISBN 978-1-910045-16-9
Production Team
Editor
Rod Westwood
rw@douglaswestwood.com
Assistant Editor
Kathryn Symes
ks@douglaswestwood.com
Report Author
Matt Adams
mca@douglaswestwood.com
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 6World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Douglas-Westwood’s Offerings
Notes & Acknowledgements
About Us
Established in 1990, Douglas-Westwood is
a leading provider of market research and
consulting services to the energy industry
worldwide. We have completed over 1,000
projects for clients in more than 70 differ-
ent countries and in some 250 niche energy
segments. Our clients range from the oil &
gas majors and their contractors to financial
houses and governments. We are an
independent organisation and our research
is supported by proprietary data, insight
and knowledge. Our international reach is
backed up by one of the largest sector-
focused teams in offices in the Americas,
Europe and Asia.
Douglas-Westwood clients include the
world’s:
Top-10 oil & gas companies
Top-10 oilfield services companies
“Energy experts Douglas-Westwood”
The Guardian
Consultancy
With an extensive advisory team spanning
three continents, Douglas-Westwood deliv-
ers energy business consultancy services
across the globe. DW consultancy services
are focused on the strategic planning pro-
cess, helping our clients to make investment
decisions, develop and test advanced com-
petitive strategies for new products, new
business streams, mergers and acquisitions,
We provide consultancy services through
advanced market insight, modelling and
simulation to a client base which includes
players in oil & gas E&P, oilfield services,
conventional & renewable energy and the
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Douglas-Westwood has supplied con-
sultancy services to over 250 companies
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Douglas-Westwood provides sector-
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Research
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World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019

  • 1. World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight e: research@douglaswestwood.com t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore • Prospects • Technologies • Markets © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 40World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Market Forecast: By Asset Type Chapter 5 : Asset Integrity Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expenditure($billions) Expenditure to total $ bn over the 2015-2019 period. Refineries and Petrochemicals to ac- count for % of forecast expenditure. CAGR from 2015-2019: % Refineries; % Petrochemicals; % Gas processing; % LNG. Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019 Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019 35% 45% 9% 11% Refineries Petrochemicals Gas Processing LNG 34% 45% 9% 12% The downstream market for Asset Integrity is similar to the Asset Services market – it is dominated by expenditure on petrochemi- cal plants and refineries, which account for % of total expenditure over 2015-2019, in large part due to the sheer size of the installed base. An estimated $ bn and $ bn is to be spent on petrochemical and refinery facili- ties over the next five years. LNG and gas processing are much smaller market sectors with combined expenditure totalling almost $ bn. However, LNG spend will be in- creasing at the fastest rate: a CAGR of % over the 2015-2019 period. Similarly to Asset Services, the large growth in LNG Asset Integrity expenditure can be attributed to the increase in LNG facilities in regions such as Australia and North America. $ bn $ bn 2015 2019 $millions 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Refinery Petrochemical Gas Processing LNG Total © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 31 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Supply Chain – Middle East Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology The Middle East is chara cteris ed by operators awarding multiple contr acts direct to lots of differ ent small comp anies, with the aim of achie ving perce ived value for mone y. Bund ling is still uncommo n.Whilst infras tructure is agein g, the concept of fabric maintenan ce has still not been fully incorporat ed by the indus try. In addition, much of the maintenan ce work is carrie d out in-ho use. EPC contr actor s (brow nfield and green field) contr act fabric mainte- nance and other specialist servic e provi ders for servic es such as the prepa ration and applic ation of spe- cialist coatings on modi ficatio n and newb uild work .The Middle Easte rn market is char- acterised by many local provi ders acros s all servic e lines. NOTE : This supply chain is intend ed to illustrate the most comm on routes to market for the main servic e lines. The comp anies in each box are intend ed to be indica tive key market players not an exhau stive portra yal. ADN OCDolph in Energ yEquat eKNPC PDO Petro Rabig hQatar Petro leum Sabia Sahar a PCCSaudi Aram co Saudi Servic es & OpsSinop ecSipche m ABS Consu ltingBurea u Verita sDNV Intert ekLloyd s Regist er Oper ators Cons ultancy APM Petro maint Desco n Intert ek Qcon SIS Wood Group Asset Integrity Cont racto rs Integrated Services Indivi dual Services Desco nDietsm annKhara fi Natio nalSaudi Servic es & OpsWood Group O&M Cont racto rs APM Petro maint Herte l Intert ekStork Techn ical Servic es Small local provid ersInspe ction Cont racto rs APM Petro maintDesco n Herte l Qcon SISSmall local provid ersE&I Cont racto rs APM Petro maint Herte lIntert ek SISStork Techn ical Servic es Small local provid ersMech anical Cont racto rs Applu sHerte lIntert ek Qcon SISStork Techn ical Servic es Small local provid ersFabric Maintenan ce APM Petro maintDesco n Herte l SISStork Techn ical Servic es Small local provid ersProce ss Equip . Cont racto rs Alfana rAPM Petro maintStork Techn ical Servic es Wood GroupSmall local provid ersRotat ing Equip . Cont racto rs Ali-Ru shaid Constr uctionDAS Group Kentz Khara fi Natio nal Petro fac Saipem Wood GroupWorle y Parso nsEPC Cont racto rs “The [business] culture is to give out multiple contr acts to lots of differ ent small comp anies. It’s a convolute d supply chain …It’s about value for mone y.” Engin eering Services Company “In the Middle East I see a greater need for asset integrity and fabric maintenan ce. Scale of infras tructure and its age is as significant as anyw here. Integrity is a new concept acros s the region due to a numb er of unfor tunat e accidents that have focus ed atten tion onto asset integrity servic es.”Engin eering Services Company © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 26 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Asset Lifecycle Chapter 3 : Market Structure and Methodology Pre-FEED Studies and Conceptual Design Operations & Maintenance Modifications Decomm issioning CAPEX Phase Liabilities OPEX Phase Com missioning and Start-up Construction FEED Maintenance: Ongo ing inspe ction, repair and upkeep of down stream assets is a vital proce ss within the down stream plant lifecycle. Maintenan ce servic es reduc e operational costs over the long- term, maximise uptim e of the facility and ensur e the efficie nt running of all equip ment within it. High ongoing levels of maintenan ce can also prolo ng the asset’s life; significantl y pushi ng back the plant’s decommis sionin g date. Maintenan ce servic es are essen tial to ensur e the asset is able to perfo rm its requi red function effectively and efficie ntly whilst adhering to any health, safety and environme ntal regulations in place . Asset Services Asset Services encompas s a numb er of servic e lines all imple ment ed with the aim to reduc e the operational cost and down time of the various electrical, mech anical, rotating and proce ss equip ment that is vital to the smoo th running of the facility. Mech anical Services Electrical & Instru ment ation Fabric Maintenan ce Rotat ing Equip ment Proce ss equip ment Asset Integrity Asset Integrity servic es aim to prolo ng the down stream lifecycle throu gh the mana geme nt and developm ent of maintenan ce strate gies, ensur ing maximum plant uptim e and an efficie nt maintenan ce sched ule. Cons ultancy Asset Mana geme nt Integrity Services The servic e lines covered in this report are split into two sectio ns: “Prod uct life-cy cle is regulated by indus try stand ards… which in turn affect client s’ requi reme nts. Valve s should serve 30 years , with regular maintenan ce typica lly every five years .” Oil & Gas Major The typica l lifecycle of a down stream asset which demo nstrates the occurrenc e of maintenan ce servic es. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 19 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators The two most comm on petro chem ical feeds tocks are olefin s and arom atics.The major hydro carbo n sourc es used in producing petro chem icals are obtained from gas proce ssing and petro leum refining. The main yields from refining are gasoline, keros ene, distill ate fuel and residual fuel. In 2014 US refine ries produced 45% of their yield as gasoline, although yields can be altere d in respo nse to price. Figure 15: US Refine ry Yield 2014Source : EIA 45% 10% 30% 3% 20% Figure 16: Petroc hemic al Feeds tocks and Outputs Natural Gas Crude Oil Steam Cracker Methane Ethane Propane Butane Plastics Resins Fibers Textiles ElastomersRubbers Solvents CoatingsDyes & PigmentsAdhesivesChemicals Other Consumer Products Methanol Ethylene PropyleneButadiene Benzene Toulene Xylene Naptha Moto r GasolineKerosene Jet FuelDistillate FuelResid ual FuelOthe r Refining YieldsThe chart show s the yield from US refine r- ies in 2014. Refiners can adjust product yields in respo nse to chang ing product prices and other market conditions by varyin g refine ry proce sses and the types of crude oil they choose to refine . The refine ry outpu t will also be deter mined by the com- plexity of the refine ry; those with a cataly tic converter are generally more comp lex and able to refine heavi er crude s.The yields sum to more than 100% due to the proce ssing gain from refining; the volum e by which total outpu t is greater than input for a given perio d of time. Dur- ing refining proce sses such as fluid cataly tic crack ing, volum es can increase when large, heavy molecules are broke n into smaller and lighte r molecules that take up more space . Petrochemical process The diagram show s some of the petro - chem ical feeds tocks and the consu mer good s produced by them . The two most comm on petro chem ical classe s are olefin s and arom atics. Olefins includ e ethylene, propylene and butad iene and can be used to produce indus trial chem icals, plastics and rubbe r. Arom atics includ e benzene, toule ne and xylen e (BTX ). The main hydro carbo n sourc es used in a petro chem ical plant are either obtained from gas proce ssing (methane, ethan e, pro- pane, butan e) or petro leum refining (napt ha and BTX) . Gas-p roduced ethan e is typica lly the favou red feeds tock acros s the petro chem i- cal indus try due to lower costs. With the majority of European petro chem ical plants focus ing on naphtha-b ased crack ing, this has place d press ure on European plants in recen t years . However, the recen t crude oil price down turn has prom pted a sharp declin e in the price of naphtha. Ethan e had an almost tenfo ld advan tage over naphtha at the start of 2014. This had decre ased to less than twofo ld by Dece mber 2014, benefiting Eu- ropean petro chem ical plants by increasing their margins. Altho ugh, these benefits may be short lived depending on the longe vity of oil price declin e. “Margins are high curre ntly, but it really depends on the equip ment in the refine ry and the comp lexity. The cataly tic crack er is the most comp lex part of the refine ry” Integrated Downstream Oper ator Operator budgets tighten, but Downstream Maintenance spend still sees rise Between 2015 and 2019, global downstream asset maintenance spend is expected to total $322 billion (bn), an increase of 12% when compared to the previous five-year period. In 2014, expenditure totalled $63bn for the world’s global downstream asset population of approximately 13,000 facilities, DW expect this to increase to $71bn by 2019. Despite a minor drop in 2015, resulting from industry-wide price deflation of equipment and services and budget tightening, an ageing existing asset population as well as a number of new installations drive the overall growth. By sector, Asset Services accounts for the majority of expenditure, 72%, with Asset Integrity accounting for the remaining 28%. North America and Asia dominate global expenditure, accounting for 35% and 28% of spend over the forecast period respectively. US downstream facilities are also expected to see a revival as a result of the recent shale boom. The World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 analyses the demand for maintenance in two key equipment and service lines: downstream asset services and down- stream asset integrity services, and across four facility types: refineries, petrochemical plants, gas processing and LNG. The report includes: • Drivers & Indicators – in depth discussion of the factors encouraging asset mainte- nance expenditure including: E&P trends, oil & gas prices, analysis of the recent oil price downturn), downstream facility popula- tion, asset lifecycle, policies & regulation and trends and drivers detailed by refinery, petrochemical, gas processing and LNG. • Service Line Analysis – for downstream as- set services and asset integrity services split out by service line, asset type and region with competitive landscape and detailed supply chain analysis. • Regional Analysis – expenditure by service line 2010-2019 with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 33 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Methodology: OverviewChapter 4 : Asset Services Assumptio ns Asset based As the asset varies by age, capac ity and region the cost assum ption is adjusted. Asset type As each asset type perfo rms differ ent proce sses the cost assum ption is adjusted to reflec t this. For LNG facilit ies, DW accou nts for the differ ences in proce ss and com- plexity of export and import terminals by adjusting the cost assum ption . Regulation and culture These are adjusted for in the cost as- sump tion by apply ing a regional index . Onshore Douglas-Westwood In-House Database Asse tData Mod ellingProc ess Refining Petrochemicals Gas Processing LNG Expo rt Import Capacity Varying facility sizes and the associated level of maintenance required is accounted for by the use of a cost assumption per barrel for refining, per mcf for gas processing and per tonne for petrochemicals and LNG. Age Age multiplier applied to all assets to account for the extra maintenance requirements as facilities age. Region A regional index is applied to account for environm ental, labour and regulatory differences between regions. Asset Integrity Mark et Comprised of: Cons ultancy Asset Mana geme nt Integrity Services Asset Services Mark et Comprised of: Electrical & Instru ment ation Fabric Maintenan ce Mech anical Services Proce ss Equip ment Rotat ing Equip ment Annual Cost Assumption by Service Line (including Inflation Assumption) The cost assumption will vary by asset type, accounting for the variations in comp lexity of equip ment and mach inery used. DW assign different cost assumptions for export and import terminals due to the higher comp lexity of export terminals. Brownfield Expenditure per Asset © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 47 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purch asing this docum ent, your organ isation agree s that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circula ted in any form any of the contents without the writte n permission of Douglas-W estwo od Australasia Chapter 6 : Regional Summary Figure 39: Maintenan ce Expenditur e in Australasia 2010 -2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expe nditu re($billions) AI: Consultancy AI: Asset Mana geme nt AI: Integrity Services AS: Mech anical AS: Electrical & Instru mentation AS: Fabric Maintenan ce Expenditure to total $ bn over the 2015-2019 perio d, grow ing at % CAG R. Grow th of % from prece ding five- year perio d – fastes t grow ing region.% of forec ast globa l spend .Large LNG facilit ies coming onstr eam durin g the forec ast perio d drivin g grow th. CAG R from 2015-2019 : % Mech anical Services;% E&I; % Fabric Maintenan ce;% Rotating Equip ment ; % Proce ss Equip ment ; % Cons ultancy;% Asset Mana geme nt;% Integrity Services. % Refineries;% Petro chem icals;% Gas Proce ssing;% LNG. Table 14: Maintenan ce Expenditur e in Australasia by Servic e Line 2014 -2019 Table 15: Maintenan ce Expenditur e in Australasia by Asset Type 2014 -2019 Expenditure in Austr alasia is set to total $ over 2015-2019 . This is an increase of % from the previous five years , due mainly to LNG facilities within the region coming online in the coming years ; addin g some % to curre nt capac ity.Over 2010-2014 , LNG plants accou nted for % of maintenan ce spend in the region, refine ries %, petro chem ical plants % and gas proce ssing plants %.Durin g the forec ast perio d the comp osi- tion of expenditure will chang e consider- ably as Austr alasia invests heavi ly in new LNG facilities. LNG will accou nt for % of expenditure durin g the perio d, petro chem i- cals for %, refine ries for % and gas proce ssing for %. Desp ite being a relatively small market, the continued onset of LNG plants post- 2014 mean s that Austr alasia will be one of the stron gest grow th regions, also with stead y grow th in refine ry, petro chem ical and gas proce ssing plant maintenan ce spend . Furth ermo re, LNG maintenan ce spend ing is likely to see % CAG R over the forec ast perio d as additional proje cts come online. Desp ite the cance llation of the Brow se LNG expo rt proje ct in Austr alia, a numb er of LNG trains are expected to come online throu gh the forec ast perio d. This will drive dema nd for the asset maintenan ce servic es necessitated by the large capac ity increase. But despite stron g grow th between 2015- 2019, DW expect Austr alasia to only accou nt for % of globa l plant mana geme nt expenditure. Refinery capac ity to see little increase over the forec ast, with only the Marsden Point proje ct in New Zeala nd expected to have a significant affect on throu ghput. As a result, refine ry maintenan ce expenditure is ex- pecte d to be predo minantly driven by cost inflation, thoug h there may be some impact from increased capac ity. A simila r story is likely for petro chem icals. Gas proce ssing on the other hand should see relatively stron g grow th in maintenan ce spend , as super major investmen t drives capac ity increases throu gh the forec ast. $ millio ns 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Asset Servic es Mech anical E & I Fabric Maint enanc e Rotat ing Equip mentProce ss Equip ment Asset Integr ity Consu ltancy 6 Asset Manag emen t Integr ity Servic es Total $ millio ns 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Refine ry Petro chem icalsGas Proce ssing LNG Total
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  • 3. 2015 World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast Prospects, Technologies, World Markets 2015-2019
  • 4. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Table of Contents 1 Summary and Conclusions......................................7 Summary......................................................................................................................................... 8 Conclusions.................................................................................................................................... 9 2 Drivers and Indicators........................................... 10 Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand .............................................................11 Changing Energy Mix..................................................................................................................12 Natural Gas..................................................................................................................................13 LNG...............................................................................................................................................14 Oil – Supply & Demand .............................................................................................................15 Oil Price Volatility.......................................................................................................................16 Refining Margins ..........................................................................................................................17 Downstream Facility Population..............................................................................................18 Refinery Yeild and Petrochemical Output..............................................................................19 Refining Trends & Drivers.........................................................................................................20 Petrochemical Trends & Drivers..............................................................................................21 Gas Processing Trends & Drivers............................................................................................22 LNG Trends & Drivers...............................................................................................................23 Politics and Regulation...............................................................................................................24 3 Market Structure and Methodology .................. 25 Asset Lifecycle.............................................................................................................................26 Asset Services – Definitions .....................................................................................................27 Asset Integrity – Definitions.....................................................................................................28 Supply Chain – Continental Europe........................................................................................29 Supply Chain – North America................................................................................................30 Supply Chain – Middle East.......................................................................................................31 4 Asset Services ......................................................... 32 Methodology: Overview............................................................................................................33 Barriers & Limitations................................................................................................................34 Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................35 Market Forecast: By Asset Type ..............................................................................................36 Market Forecast: By Region......................................................................................................37 5 Asset Integrity......................................................... 38 Market Forecast: By Service Line ............................................................................................39 Market Forecast: By Asset Type ..............................................................................................40 Market Forecast: By Region......................................................................................................41 6 Regional Summary.................................................. 42 Regional Summary.......................................................................................................................43 Africa.............................................................................................................................................45 Asia ................................................................................................................................................46 Australasia ....................................................................................................................................47 Eastern Europe & FSU................................................................................................................48 Latin America...............................................................................................................................49 Middle East...................................................................................................................................50 North America............................................................................................................................51 Western Europe..........................................................................................................................52 7 Appendix .................................................................. 53 Top 20 Countries .......................................................................................................................54 Data and Text Conventions......................................................................................................55
  • 5. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Figures Figure 1: Global Maintenance Expenditure by Region 2010-2019........................................................8 Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035...............................................11 Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013...................................................11 Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix 1980-2013...........................................................................................12 Figure 5: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) ................................................................................................13 Figure 6: Natural Gas Prices ($/mbtu)..............................................................................................................13 Figure 7: LNG Supply by Region (excludes FLNG)...................................................................................14 Figure 8: FLNG Capex ...........................................................................................................................................14 Figure 9: Oil Price & Demand...............................................................................................................................15 Figure 10: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 ...................................................................15 Figure 11: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2007 – February 2015.........................16 Figure 12: Oil Price to Balance Budgets with Brent at $59 (20 February 2015).......................16 Figure 13: Historic Brent cracking margins relative to Brent oil price (Jan 08 – Feb 15) .......17 Figure 14: Global Downstream Population 2009-2018...........................................................................18 Figure 15: US Refinery Yield 2014......................................................................................................................19 Figure 16: Petrochemical Feedstocks and Outputs....................................................................................19 Figure 17: Global Oil Refinery Utilisation........................................................................................................20 Figure 18: Global Refining Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ...........................................................................20 Figure 19: Global Petrochemical Price Index 2009-2015........................................................................21 Figure 20: Global Petrochemical Capacity in 2014 and 2019 .............................................................21 Figure 21: Global Gas Processing Capacity in 2014 and 2019 ...........................................................22 Figure 22: LNG Demand Outlook 2005-2030.............................................................................................23 Figure 23: Global LNG Capacity in 2014 and 2019 .................................................................................23 Figure 24: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019.....................................................35 Figure 25: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019...................35 Figure 26: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 .......................................................36 Figure 27: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.....................36 Figure 28: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2019................................................................37 Figure 29: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019..............................37 Figure 30: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2019...................................................39 Figure 31: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2010-2014 and 2015-2019.................39 Figure 32: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2019 .....................................................40 Figure 33: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2010-2014 and 2015-2019...................40 Figure 34: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2019..............................................................41 Figure 35: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2010-2014 and 2015-2019............................41 Figure 36: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2010-2019.........................................................................44 Figure 37: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa 2010-2019.....................................................................45 Figure 38: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia 2010-2019.........................................................................46 Figure 39: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia 2010-2019...........................................................47 Figure 40: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU 2010-2019.............................................................48 Figure 41: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America 2010-2019....................................................49 Figure 42: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East 2010-2019.........................................................50 Figure 43: Maintenance Expenditure in North America 2010-2019.................................................51 Figure 44: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe 2010-2019..............................................52
  • 6. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Contents Tables Table 1: Primary Energy Demand Growth by Region...............................................................................11 Table 2: Asset Service Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019..........................................................35 Table 3: Asset Service Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019............................................................36 Table 4: Asset Service Expenditure by Region 2014-2019.....................................................................37 Table 5: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Service Line 2014-2019........................................................39 Table 6: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Asset Type 2014-2019..........................................................40 Table 7: Asset Integrity Expenditure by Region 2014-2019...................................................................41 Table 8: Global Maintenance Expenditure 2014-2019.............................................................................44 Table 9: Global Forecast Maintenance Expenditure by Asset Type & Service Line 2015-1944 Table 10: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Service Line 2014-2019.....................................45 Table 11: Maintenance Expenditure in Africa by Asset Type 2014-2019 .......................................45 Table 12: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Service Line 2014-2019.........................................46 Table 13: Maintenance Expenditure in Asia by Asset Type 2014-2019...........................................46 Table 14: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Service Line 2014-2019...........................47 Table 15: Maintenance Expenditure in Australasia by Asset Type 2014-2019.............................47 Table 16: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Service Line 2014-2019.............................48 Table 17: Maintenance Expenditure in EE & FSU by Asset Type 2014-2019 ...............................48 Table 18: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Service Line 2014-2019....................49 Table 19: Maintenance Expenditure in Latin America by Asset Type 2014-2019......................49 Table 20: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Service Line 2014-2019.........................50 Table 21: Maintenance Expenditure in Middle East by Asset Type 2014-2019...........................50 Table 22: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Service Line 2014-2019.................51 Table 23: Maintenance Expenditure in North America by Asset Type 2014-2019...................51 Table 24: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Service Line 2014-2019..............52 Table 25: Maintenance Expenditure in Western Europe by Asset Type 2014-2019................52 Table 26: Top 20 Countries – Refining Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019........................54 Table 27: Top 20 Countries – Petrochemical Maintenance Expenditure 2015 & 2019 ..........54 Table 28: Top 20 Countries – Gas Processing Expenditure 2015 & 2019.....................................54 Table 29: Top 20 Countries – LNG Expenditure 2015 & 2019...........................................................54
  • 7. © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Notes & Acknowledgements About Us Disclaimer This report is a Douglas-Westwood (DW) study and all rights are reserved, whether this pertains to the body of the report or any information contained within. The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Douglas-West- wood as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not accept any responsibility in relation to such information whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. While we have made every attempt to ensure the information contained in this document has been obtained from reliable sources, Douglas-Westwood is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All informa- tion in this document is provided “as is”, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of performance, mer- chantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Nothing herein shall to any extent substitute for the independent investigations and the sound technical and business judgment of the reader. Laws and regulations are continually changing, and can be interpreted only in light of particular factual situations. World Downstream Maintenance Market Forecast is published by: Douglas-Westwood Limited, 20 East Street Faversham Kent ME13 8AS, UK tel: +44 203 4799 505 fax: +44 1795 594748 admin@douglaswestwood.com © Copyright Douglas-Westwood Limited 2015 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of the publishers. Additional copies of this study may be purchased at a specially discounted rate. DW report number 565-15 ISBN 978-1-910045-16-9 Production Team Editor Rod Westwood rw@douglaswestwood.com Assistant Editor Kathryn Symes ks@douglaswestwood.com Report Author Matt Adams mca@douglaswestwood.com
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