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▪ THESE PLAYBOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR LEGENDS WHO DON’T HAVE MUCH TIME + ARE INTERESTED IN LEARNING ABOUT TOPICS THAT COULD HELP THEM ACHIEVE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL
▪ WHILE IT CONTAINS A CIRCUMSIZED FORM OF THE MATERIAL RELEVANT TO THE SPECIFIC TOPIC, THE AUTHOR ENCOURAGES YOU TO DIG DEEPER & DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
▪ WHILE POSITIONS ARE TAKEN, THESE ARE NOT INTENDED TO BE EXHAUSTIVE, DIFINITIVE OR PORTRAYED AS EXPERT OPINION. AS WITH EVERYTHING IN LIFE CONSULT OTHER OPINIONS,
CHALLENGE EVERYTHING & NOTE THAT BOTAOE (BUT OF COURSE THERE ARE OBVIOUS EXCEPTIONS)
▪ IF YOU DON’T LOVE IT, NO NEED TO LET ME &/OR THE WORLD KNOW. AS THEY SAY, EITHER LEAD, FOLLOW OR GET OUT OF THE WAY
Work 101
10 /10 Series – 10 “killer” slides in 10 minutes
11th December 2020
ONLY FOR
RECKLESS USE
OFFICIAL
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Given the availability of data,
the focus of this KaPow! will
be on the USA. Also #’s are
averages so may not apply to
your personal experience
There has been tremendous improvement over the past few centuries
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
1940
1820 1960
1840 1920
1860 1880 1900 1980 2000 2020
100,000
Year
GDP per Capita (2005 Dollars, ratio scale)
Country
group and
pop. in 2009
(in millions)
10,000
1,000
100
World 6,810
Western offshoots 366 Latin America 580
Western Europe 408
Eastern Europe 114
Africa 908
Former USSR 275
China 1,320
Japan 127
India 1,160
While the rate of improvement has varied, improvements
have occurred in all regions of the world
Average GDP per capita by country group, 1820-2008
These improvements are likely in the order of >10x over
just the past century
Quote taken from Russ Robert’s The Price of Everything
In 1900, only 15% of American households had flush
toilets. Maybe 25% had running water. Housewives - and most women
were housewives - washed clothes using a scrub board with water
hauled from a well or a stream or a tenement faucet. That meant
carrying about 10,000 gallons a year. About 12 hours every day were
devoted to household chores. Half of that was food prep. Sound fun? A
quarter of all households shared their living quarters with a lodger.
No central heating. No refrigerators. Virtually no one had electricity.
Maybe a fifth of all household had an icebox and access to ice. No
microwaves. No cell phones. Forty percent of the American work force
worked on the farm and worked seventy-four hours each week. City
workers worked sixty hours a week. Our standard of living in America
today dwarfs our standard of living of one hundred years ago by an
enormous amount … In 1900, the chance of a woman in America
dying during childbirth was about eight out of a thousand, almost 1%.
Today, it’s about eight out of 100,000. So childbirth is one hundred
times safer than it was 100 years ago … In 1900, one out of every ten
– ten! – babies died in the first year of life. Today the mortality rate is
under one out of one hundred. That’s a tenfold improvement. It’s
about ridding the world of polio … it’s about painkillers … antibiotics
and pacemakers.”
As human society has evolved, so too has the nature of work
Tech-
nology
World
Pop.
Hunting & Gathering
 Hunters; fishermen;
scavengers; tool makers;
clothes makers
 Stone tools & weapons; fire;
animal skin for clothes;
sewing needles
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Descript-
ion
Job
types
Job
examples
Agricultural Revolution
 Farmers, shepherds,
carpenters; bakers; soldiers;
butchers; firemen; gladiators
 Irrigation; the sickle & the
plow; foods (e.g., olive oil);
cattle
Industrial Revolution
 Factory workers; blacksmiths;
pharmacists; journalists; train
drivers; glassmakers
 Factories / assembly lines;;
steam power; mechanization;
fertilizer
Information Revolution
 Computer scientist; social
media influencer; podcast
producer; drone operator
 Automation, computers,
internet, robots, metaverse,
digital networks
10 10
20k 5m 820m 7.9bn
 Bands hunted animals &
foraged for wild plants & other
nutrients (e.g., honey)
together with a focus on
subsistence
 Migration & population growth
saw agricultural societies
emerge with the help of
domesticated animals & new
species of crops
 The mechanization of
manufacturing & electrically
powered assembly lines; the
introduction of steam &
waterpower
 Widespread globalization,
global institutions & the
proliferation of technology,
esp. around connectivity,
transport & medicine
~200,000 years ago ~12,000 years ago ~250 years ago Ongoing
Only a handful
Development of larger & more
developed societies results in
10’s of jobs
Division of labor & rapid
economic develop expands the
types of jobs into the 100’s
Specialization & rapidly evolving
technology resulting in 1000’s of
unique jobs
1. “The Hero of Alexandria designed, and probably built, a steam engine in the first century B.C. that used fire-heated cauldrons and tubes. The Mediterranean world of the time, however, had all the labor power it needed in slaves, and Hero’s machine was ignored; in an England of the
18th century where slaves were outlawed and cheap labor hard to control and manipulate, great energy was put into creating just such a device.” – Kirkpatrick Sale
1
“Our generation were about finding a job. My kids generation is about creating their own job.” – Thomas Freidman
Today, there are countless different jobs on offer (with new jobs being
added as we speak)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Tutor
You will likely have ~12 different jobs over your life across three different
skill areas
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Over our lifetime, we will have around ~12 (or more) jobs
Average # of jobs for individuals aged 18-54, 1978-2018
5.6
4.5
2.9
2.1
Age 18-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54
12.4 jobs
over our
lifetime
The average distribution of job tenure appears to have
been consistent in recent times
Average time spent with the same employer, 1996-2008
26% 23%
13%
13%
15%
17%
20% 20%
17% 17%
9% 10%
1-2 years
10-19 years
1996 2008
20 years or more
5-9 years
3-4 years
12 months or less
100%
According to John Gray
In Greek myth, Sisyphus struggles to roll a stone
to the top of a hill so it will then roll down the other
side. Robert Graves tells his story thus:
He has never yet succeeded in doing so. As soon
as he has almost reached the summit, he is
forced back by the weight of the shameless
stone, which bounces to the very bottom once
more; where he wearily retrieves it and must
begin all over again, though sweat bathes his
limbs, and a cloud of dust rises above his head.
For the ancient's, unending labour was the mark
of a slave. The labours of Sisyphus are a
punishment. In working for progress, we submit to
a labour no less servile.
And, while there can be a fair bit of cynicism about work
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
And some of us work pretty hard to avoid working (or working too hard)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
And the Covid pandemic has caused a lot of us to assess our current
relationship with our work
“‘No one can make a pencil.’ Ruth let the statement sit there. She looked at the students’ faces. They weren’t quite sure how to react …
[Ruth] reached down into her briefcase again and pulled out what appeared to be a thin piece of wood. ‘There’s only one place in the world
that makes these cedar slats and sells them to pencil factories. In the factory, they put ten narrow grooves, each the width of a pencil lead,
into each slat, like this.’ She reached down into her bag and pulled out a second cedar slat with ten grooves cut into it. ‘Then they put a little
glue in the grooves and lay a lead in each groove. Of course, it’s not really lead, it’s graphite. Anybody know where graphite comes from?’
Nobody answered, so Ruth continued. ‘It’s found underground in Sri Lanka, in Mexico, in China, in Brazil. At the pencil factory, they mix it
with clay from Mississippi and a little water and bake it, if that’s the right word for cooking something at 1900 degrees. Then they roll it out
and cut it so it's the right length. Voila! What we call pencil lead. They put the lead in these grooves and then they take another grooved
cedar slat and lay it on top. A lead and cedar sandwich. It looks like this.’ She reached down again into the briefcase and pulled out another
piece of word. ‘What I really wanted to bring back from the factory,’ Ruth continued, ‘was the pencil in the lobby. Maybe 30 feet long. A
perfect super-jumbo replica of a real pencil, down to the eraser. Just in case Paul Bunyan or King Kong stopped by and need something to
rite with. Now look at this cedar sandwich. There are ten pencils imprisoned in here. We need to set them free. So they pass this sandwich
through a special saw that carves the pencils from this block. First, they cut off the bottom, so it looks like this. Can you see the pencils
peeking out? These are going to be classic six-sided pencils. Here you can see they half-cut. They then turn the slat upside down, pass it
through the saw again, and then pencils emerge. Then each one gets pained three times, that beautiful canary yellow. Every notice how
there's never any paint smeared on the end you sharpen? How do they paint it so perfectly?’ ‘They use special tiny brushes?’ Josh guessed.
‘That’s right. A gnome casts a magic spell on some elves. The elves, entranced, use the brushes to get it just right. Actually, they make the
pencil a little too long. After they paint it, they slice a titch off the end so that it looks clean. I love that! Isn’t that marvelous? Better than
elves! But they don’t worry if the other end is a little sloppy because the customer never sees that end – it’s covered up by the little piece of
aluminum and the eraser. After the aluminum and the eraser, they stamp the green letters on. That neon green you see in the body of a fly
if the light’s right … A simple pencil,’ she said, holding up the pencil and turning it this way and that in the winter light streaming in from
the giant windows lining the wall. ‘Is there anything simpler? Yet the making of a pencil is almost –’ She paused to find the right world.
‘Magical. Is it absurd to call something so simple and mundane, magical?
- Russ Roberts, The Price of Everything
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Not much in the world happens without work, even
creating a simple pencil!
10 10
10 10
This material was spun up from a number of solid reads (1/2)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Hugh’s Killer
Idea’s (HKI) Book
Rating
Hugh’s Killer Ideas is an Amazon Associate. Book purchases resulting from Amazon links may earn an affiliate commission
This material was spun up from a number of solid reads (2/2)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Hugh’s Killer
Idea’s (HKI) Book
Rating
10 10
Hugh’s Killer Ideas is an Amazon Associate. Book purchases resulting from Amazon links may earn an affiliate commission
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Yes, lucky us! It’s that time again. Quiz time.
• For many of us, we are defined by the jobs we have. For the average
American, what percent of our lives will we spend working?
❑ A: ~15% ❑ B: ~25% ❑ C: ~33%
1
• In 1940, 1 farmer fed ~18 people. Today 1 farmer feeds ~165 people.
What percent of the current USA labor force is in agriculture?
❑ A: ~30% ❑ B: ~15% ❑ C: ~2%
2
• In 1950, the overall participation rate of women was 34%. By 2020, it
reached 57%. Today, what percentage of American jobs do women
hold?
❑ A: ~50% of jobs ❑ B: ~33% of jobs ❑ C: ~15% of jobs
3
You can find the answers at the top of the next slide! 10 10
13
Headline: Like bubbles in beer, cops & donuts or cream in coffee; to be a
human is to work
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
In the USA, the past century has seen an increase in GDP per capita of 12 times as-well-as rapid, drastic improvements across a range of work-related
indictors. When it comes to productivity, in the 1940’s, one farmer could feed just 18 people. Today that number is more than 165. When it comes to the
types of jobs, today less than 2% of the American workforce work in agriculture while in the 1860’s this was closer to 2 in 3 workers. Those freed from
the land didn’t just go to the unemployment line, rather workforce participation has grown. For example, for women participation has grown from one
in five in the 1900’s to 2 in 3 by the 2000’s, to the point where almost half the jobs in society are held by women. Or even when it comes to safety,
workplace fatalities in the mining sector fell from over 3,300 per year in the early 1900’s to 29 in 2020.
In 1930 the Nobel Prize winning economist John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren that predicted a 15-
hour work week for his grandchildren. Put another way, we might work just Monday & Tuesday, & then have a five-day weekend. Keynes was right that
over time labor productivity would increase (productivity per hour is almost five times higher today compared to when Kayne’s wrote the essay) & so
too would trade-offs towards leisure over work (in 1870 the average American employed in full-time work took just 3 days of vacation, where today this
20 days). However, he overshot the mark when it comes to working hours, with the average American worker now working ~25% less today than in
1930 (2316 hours down to 1757 hours per year). Rather than 15 hours a week, most full-time works are working close to 2.5 times this amount. Keynes
also made predictions about widespread “technological unemployment” due to automation, which also did not come to fruition (in the past four decades
employment has grown by 60 million in the USA while unemployment has remained close to 5%, well under the 100-year average of 7%). This alarmist
prediction can be traced back to the Industrial Revolution (1760-1840) when Luddites (textile workers in the UK) aggressively protested that machines
would destroy their livelihoods.
Working is a core part of what it means to be human, put well by the French philosopher Voltaire who said: “We must cultivate our own garden. When
man was put in the garden of Eden he was put there so that he should work, which proves that man was not born to rest”. We will spend on average
15% of our lives at work (with this going up to almost a quarter of our time when we are in our middle age). Therefore, an important topic to meditate
on. Given this, in the follow KaPow! we will explore 10 myths about work that build off the two above popularized by Keynes. I sincerely hope you find
the following informative & enjoyable; & at the very least spend a bit of time reflecting on how you want to spend this 15% of your time.
Sending you lots of zing-zing (telepathic good vibes) 😊
Answers to Quiz! Q1. A: ~15%. Q2. C: ~2%. Q3. A: ~50% of jobs.
10 10
10 10
Let’s keep reading. Pretty please with sugar on top!
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
15
On average, we will spend 100,000 hours at work over our life
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Almost 1/6th of our life will be spent at work. A lot but less than the time we
spend on personal care & leisure
Average hours per day across all days of week, %, USA, 2019
The bulk of this time will be during our middle ages (if we are all lucky enough to
make it to that age)
Average time spend on certain activities, %, USA, life expectancy = 78 years
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3%
5%
7%
15%
22%
40%
2%
Household
Activities
Purchasing Goods &
Services
1%
Other
Telephone calls/mail/email
Civic /Religious Activities
Eating / Drinking
1%
1%
Educational Activities
3%
Caring for & Helping Others
Working
Personal Care
(e.g., sleep)
Leisure & Sports
44% 40% 39% 40%
22%
18% 18%
30%
15%
5%
20% 22%
5%
4%
5% 5%
5%
6% 7%
10%
5%
4%
100% =
Household Activities
3%
2%
25-34 45-54
Educational Activities
65-74
Caring for & Helping Others
Civic /Religious Activities
Telephone calls/mail/email
Purchasing Goods & Services
Working
15-19
Eating / Drinking
Leisure & Sports
24 24 24 24
4%
Other
Personal Care (e.g., sleep)
16
However, we probably only spend about one-third of this time on
productive work (not saying there is anything wrong with that ☺)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
*DILO (Day in Life Of) is a continuous improvement tool used to analyze time workers spend on different tasks throughout the day
SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor, Solitaired
582
510
348
180
72
162
168
Commute
Work & Commute Time at Work Breaks Available work-time Lower value time Higher value time
-12%
-32%
-48%
114% 14% 100% 32% 68% 33% 35%
Time Spent on Tasks Relating to our Workday from DILO* Observations
Avg. full-time employee, minutes, 2019
Workers typically underestimate
the time they spend on breaks;
with the largest buckets:
biological needs (36mins);
entertainment (25mins); thinking
about things (22 mins)
17
And given our life expectancy is expected to rise, so to will our likely age
of retirement
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
SOURCE: David Sinclair, OECD
Life expectancy is forecasted to continue to rise,
exceeding 100 in the coming decades
60 60 62
66 67
88
2050
1990
1970 2030
2010 2050
+12%
+47%
The pensionable age has been growing across the
OECD, shown through the Australian example
x Life expectancy post
pensionable age, OECD avg.
18 21 23 23 25 25
29
41 46
69
78
92 95
21
55
2000
1900
1800 1850 1950 2050 2100
113
150
59% 70% 22%
High forecast
92%
Low forecast
18
We should not forget that retirement is a relatively modern concept. Most
of our ancestors essentially worked until they dropped dead
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
SOURCE: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel
Labor force participation rate for males 65 & older
USA population 65+ available for production of goods & services, 1880-2020
1880 1960
1920
1900 1940 1980 2000 2020
78%
65%
60%
44%
41%
25%
18%
24%
-1.2%
+1.4%
Over the past two decades this
decline has started to reverse
because of a desire for the income
(not a need); also the fact they
enjoy working as-well-as a desire to
stay active /keep their mind sharp.
The “dream” of retirement is about two generations old. The
401(k) – the key retirement savings vehicle – was only born
in 1978. It was really only in the 1980’s when the idea that
everyone deserved a dignified retirement really took hold.
19
“On the whole people are proud to do what they are doing. Every job demands a lot of care. Nothing gets done in this world – no
pencil gets made – without an unbelievable amount of effort.” – Alain de Botton
We will explore a # of myths about jobs
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Myth #1 – People don’t want to work
Myth #2 – Most people hate their job
Myth #3 – There is a tsunami of people quitting their jobs
Myth #4 – We are now working longer than ever
Myth #5 – Our wages are stagnant
Myth #6 - All the good jobs are gone
Myth #7 – No new jobs are being created
Myth #8 – Only meaningless jobs pay well
Myth #9 – Our jobs have never been more tenuous
Myth #10 – Unemployment is out of control
20
Generally speaking, people like to work and those without a job
experience poor outcomes on a range of health indicators
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
1
While Gallup will tell you a minority of employees
are engaged at work …
Employees by engagement level, %, USA
… the volume of people who dislike (or hate)
their job is relatively low …
Employees response to how they feel, OECD
… and those who are unemployed or not in the
workforce appear to not be living the dream
Those experiencing depression while unemployed
Engaged
Not Engaged Actively
Disengaged
56%
49%
26%
38%
18%
13%
-13%
+46%
-28%
2000 2020
SOURCE: Gallup
YouGov UK, Question – Which, if any, of the following best
describes how you feel about your current job?, 2017
UK, Question – All in all, which best describes how you feel about
your job?, 2005
45%
20%
17%
10%
6%
I like my job
I neither like nor
dislike my job
I love my job
I dislike my job
I hate my job
59%
32%
7%
Love Job
Like Job
Hate Job
Dislike Job
2%
6-11
weeks
>52 weeks
2 weeks
or less
27-51
weeks
11%
13%
17%
19%
+7.9%
81.4
76.1 75.2
68.8
Part-time,
wanting
full-time
Unem-
ployed
Full-time Not in
workforce
-12.6
Physical Health Index by Age & Employment Status
21
Despite the recent excitement behind the FIRE movement, a lot of
early retirees are returning to the workforce
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Food, sleep,
water
Security, health,
finances
Friendship, intimacy,
family, connections
Respect, status,
recognition, strength,
self-esteem
Meeting one’s full
potential in life, different
for every person
A job
(meets
one’s
basic
needs)
A career (meets
one’s
psychological
needs)
A calling (meets
one’s self fulfilment
needs)
A job that becomes a career & even a calling can enable you
to achieve some of the higher levels of Maslow’s hierarchy
Biological and physiological
Safety
Love/
belonging
Esteem
Self
actualization
“Everywhere, skills transform lives, generate prosperity and promote social
inclusion.” – Andreas Schleicher
10 10
The FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early)
movement is facing some pushback
“Working is not just about money … work defines who you are. It provides a place where
you are social with people. It gives you interaction with people all day long in an
interesting way. IT even helps you live longer & is very good for brain health … so when
am I retiring. Never.” – Kevin O’Leary, Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank
$25,000
$50,000
$100,000
$1m
$500k
$250k
Approx. annual budget assuming a 10%
return (approx. S&P500 avg. returns)
12
17
29
8%
6% 10%
Duration for living off $200k in savings
assuming $25k annual budget
Investment Return
Savings
NOTE: Does not factor in tax
To retire in your 30’s aggressive saving (50-80% of
your post tax income) & cutting expenses to the
bone e.g., don’t own a car
However, a # of the FIRE movement are coming out
of retirement & returning to work because they do
not feel fulfilled or as happy as when they worked
22
“Look for the job that you would take if you didn’t need a job ... I think you are out of your mind, if you keep taking jobs that you think it will look good on your resume. Isn’t that a little
like saving up sex for your old age” – Warren Buffett
Hence, it might be best to take a job that you would do even if you
were independently wealthy
“For Smith, the pursuit of wealth beyond a point where one had achieved such a comfortable position was pointless, even pathological. Hence, in his
Theory of Moral Sentiments, he recounts this story from Plutarch: What the favorite of the King of Epirus said to his master may be applied to all
men in the ordinary situations of human life. When the king had recounted to him, in their proper order, all the conquests which he proposed to
make, and had come to the last of them;
“And what does your Majesty propose to do then?” said the favorite
“I propose then,” said the King, “to enjoy myself with my friends, and endeavor to be good company over a bottle.”
“And what hinders your majesty from doing so now?” replied the favorite.
The funny thing about this incident is that the moment I read it, I realized it was basically the same joke that my graduate school advisor, the
anthropologist Marshall Sahlins, used the tell – though in his case, its’s been transformed into a fanciful meeting between a missionary and a
Samoan, whom he discovered lying on the beach:
MISSIONARY: Look at you! You’re just wasting your life away, lying around like that.
SAMOAN: Why? What do you think I should be doing?
MISSIONARY: Well, there are plenty of coconuts all around here. Why not dry some copra and sell it?
SAMOAN: And why would I want to do that?
MISSIONARY: You could make a lot of money. And with the money you make, you could get a drying machine, and dry copra faster, and make even
more money.
SAMOAN: Okay. And why would I want to do that?
MISSIONARY: Well, you'd be rich. You could buy land, plant more trees, expand operations. At that point, you wouldn't even have to do the physical
work anymore, you could just hire a bunch of other people to do it for you.
SAMOAN: Okay. And why would I want to do that?
MISSIONARY: Well, eventually, with all that copra, land, machines, employees, with all that money – you could retire a very rich man. And then you
wouldn't have to do anything. You could just lie on the beach all day.”
- David Graeber, Debt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
23
Job satisfaction appears to be relatively high and has risen over the
past two decades
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Definition: A bullshit job is a form of paid employment that is so completely pointless, unnecessary, or pernicious that eventhe employee cannot
justify its existence even though, as part of the conditions of employment, the employee feels obliged to pretend that this is not the case
50%
37%
13%
Yes
No
Unsure
Schouten & Nelissen, Holland, n=1900
YouGov poll, UK, Question – Does your job
make any meaningful difference in the world?
60%
40%
Yes (or
unsure)
No
“Once, while serving time in exile at a Siberian prison camp, Dostoyevsky developed the theory that the worst torture one could possibly devise would be to force someone to endlessly perform an
obviously pointless task ... ‘ It once came into my head that if it were desired to reduce a man to nothing … let him be constrained to pour water from one vessel into another, to pound sand,
to move a heap of earth from one place to another, and then immediately move it back again, then I am persuaded that at the end of a few days, the prisoner would hang himself or
commit a thousand capital crimes, preferring rather to die than endure such humiliation, share, and torture.’” – David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs
Volume of “Bullshit Jobs”, percentage Healthcare Administrators vs. Doctors, % change
Despite the hypothesis that “Bullshit Jobs” are widespread and proliferating fast,
especially in healthcare …
… workers appear to be on average more satisfied today than two
decades ago
% of respondents completely or somewhat satisfied, 2019
64%
93%
73%
82%
78%
73%
70%
Money you earn
Promotion
Chances
Recogntion
Your Job
86%
+8%
+12%
+11%
+14%
1999
2019
SOURCE: Gallup
2
10 10
1,500%
0%
2,500%
3,500%
500%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Healthcare Admin Doctors
Medical spending
“Kurt works for a subcontractor for the German military. Or … actually, he is employed by subcontractor of a subcontractor of a
subcontractor for the German military. Here is how he describes his work:
The German military has a subcontractor that does their IT work.
The IT firm has a subcontractor that does their logistics.
The logistics firm has a subcontractor that does their personnel management, and I work for that company.
Let’s say soldier A moves to an office two rooms farther down the hall. Instead of just carrying his computer over there, he has to fill out a
form.
The IT subcontractor will get the form, people will read it and approve it, and forward it to the logistics firm.
The logistics firm will then have to approve the moving down the hall and will request personnel from us.
The office people in my company will then do whatever they do, and now I come in.
I get an email: “Be at barracks B at time C.” usually these barracks are one hundred kilometers (62-310 miles) away from my home, so I
will get a rental car. I take the rental car, drive to the barracks, let dispatch know that I arrived, fill out a form, unhook the computer, load
the computer into a box, seal the box, have a guy from the logistics firm carry the box to the next room, where I unseal the box, fill out
another form, hook up the computer, call dispatch to tell them how long I took, get a couple of signatures, take my rental car back home,
send dispatch a letter with all of the paperwork and then get paid.
So instead of the soldier carrying his computer for five meters, two people drive for a combined six to ten hours, fill out around fifteen
pages of paperwork, and waste a good four hundred euros of taxpayers’ money.”
- David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Don’t get me wrong. Bullshit jobs and a lot of them, do exist!
10 10
“Could there be anything more demoralizing than having to wake up in the morning five out of seven days of one’s adult life to perform a task that one secretly believe did not need to be
performed – that was simply a waste of time or resources, or that even made the world worse? Would this not be a terrible psychic wound running across our society? Yet if so, it was
one that no one ever seemed to talk about.’” – David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs
According to David Graber, there are five main types of bullshit jobs
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
Descript-
ion
Exam-
ples
1. Flunkies
 Receptionists
 Administrative
assistants
 Door attendants /
building concierge
 Jobs that exist to
make other people
above them look or
feel good
(“minions”)
2. Goons
 Lobbyists
 Telemarketers
 Public relations
specialists
 Corporate lawyers
 Jobs that involve an
aggressive element
- acting to harm or
deceive others – to
further the interests
of their employer
3. Duct Tapers
 Airline desk staff who
calm passengers
missing their bags
 Computer
programmers
repairing poor code
 Jobs that solve a
problem temporarily
that really should
not exist
4. Box Tickers
 Survey administrators
 Corporate
compliance officers
 In-house magazine
journalists
 Jobs that create the
appearance that
useful things are
happening when in
fact they are not
5. Taskmasters
 Leadership
professionals
 Middle management
 Strategy leaders in
academia
 Jobs that supervise
people who won’t
really need
supervision or even
make new bullshit
jobs
“‘Getting fired,’ Tyler says, ‘is the best thing that could happen to any of us. That way, we’d quit treading water and do something with our lives’.” – Fight Club
People quitting appears to be on the rise in recent years, however this
does not seem to be the case for women
Manu-
facturing
Hospitality Retail
2.2%
Construction
2.9%
5.2%
1.7%
4.3%
1.4%
2.4%
0.9%
79%
153%
144%
71%
2010
2021
The rate of people quitting their jobs appears to
be increasing
Employees quitting, % of the labor force, USA, 2021
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
3
Bored /
unchallenged
6%
More money
Bad commute
Higher
purpose
Not
appreciate
Unhappy with
boss
Corporate
culture
44%
12%
12%
12%
7%
7%
However, this doesn’t seem to be just younger employees & does
vary (with women btw 45-54 staying much longer in their jobs)
Median years spent in a job by sex & age, USA
Moreover, the main reason for quitting
remains financial
Main reason for leaving last job, %
12.8
8.3
-35%
6.3
7.8
+24%
3.2
2.9
1983 2016
-9%
2.8 2.8
1983 2016
0%
Adults 45-54 years
Adults 25-34 years
Men Women
SOURCE: Our World in Data
27
“One of the things that predicts salary across time is agreeableness ... & it’s part of the reason why women get paid less than men. How you get paid across time
depends on a very large number of things – your skills, your abilities, your position, your social network & even if you ask for more money. ” – Jordan Peterson
In fact, female participation in the formal workforce is on the
rapid rise despite an evident pay gap
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
There are few gender differences when it comes
to what workers want
Job characteristic is considered “extremely important”
While job growth amount women has been
impressive in recent years
Female share of the labor force, % of total
There remains a gender pay gap, with the bulk
appearing to be driven by job choice
Female: Male salary pay gap percentage by cause
42%
33%
31%
30%
25%
19%
18%
43%
37%
35%
35%
22%
24%
18%
Good benefits
Able to take time off
(e.g., for childcare)
A job you enjoy
Job security
Opportunities for
promotion
A job that
Helps society
A high-paying job
43%
35%
33%
33%
23%
22%
18%
Men Women
x Total
1950 1970 1990
46.8%
2010
37.2%
29.6%
44.1%
+1% p.a.
Source: PEW TransparentCareer
7.7%
Total gap
1.2%
3.3%
Other, including
bias
Reporting bias
(e.g. men may over-
report their income)
2.5%
Choice of job
function
0.7%
Specific position
hired into
0%
Choice of lower
paying company
Lower propensity
to negotiate
0%
10 10
“For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell” – Deirdre McCloskey, historian
Jobs satisfaction is higher for those earning more, in full-time verses
part-time work as-well-as in the public or nonprofit sectors
Satisfaction appears higher with income,
especially above $75k per annum
Employed adults “very satisfied” with job, 2016
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 10
3
Full-time workers appear more satisfied than
part-time
Adults “very satisfied” with aspects of life, USA, 2016
Private sector employees are the least likely to
say their job gives them a sense of identify
Adults saying their job …, USA, 2016
SOURCE: Pew Research
Earning
$75,000+
Earning
$30,000 –
$74,999
Earning
<$30,000
Average =
49%
59%
45%
39%
+51%
39%
Personal
Financial
Situation
Family Life
31%
Current Job
The Type
of Work
You Do
74%
69%
27%
52%
58%
46%
+26%
+7%
+15%
+33%
Full-time Part-time
Self-employed
Government
34%
67% 32%
65%
62%
Nonprofit
36%
55%
42%
Private company
Is just what they
do for a living
Gives them a
sense of identity
+60%
29
NOTE: There is a distribution. Around 1 in 10 workers do work >50-hour work weeks. Moreover, there are countless cases of overworking, esp. in investment banking
10 10
John Maynard Kayne's appears to have been directionally correct, with
working hours declining
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
62
40
0
60
10
30
20
40
50
70 -35%
57
40
-29%
68
40
2000
0
30
1850 1900
10
1950
20
50
40
60
70
-41% 66
36
2000
1850 1900 1950
-46%
4
2,258
2,024
1,980
1,956
1,954
1,780
1,746
1,723
1,710
1,695
1,687
1,676
1,538
1,526
1,356
Mexico
South Korea
Chile
Russia
Greece
United States
Italy
OECD average
Japan
Canada
Germany
Spain
Australia
United Kingdom
France
While working hours vary widely from country to
country …
Average hours worked per employee per year, 2017, #
… on average full-time workers now work 20-30 hours
less per week
Average weekly work hours per employee, 1870-2000
SOURCE: Statista, Our World in Data
This appears consistent across industries and even
different role types
Average daily hours worked per employee, 1890-1991
8.6
8.8
Transportation Manufacturing
8.6
Construction
10.6
9.6 9.4
1890
1991
Sales Managerial
Service
12
9
12
8
11
9
It does appear that we have both been taking more vacation & also
enjoying more leisure time
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4
10 10
Across countries the average number of days off
appear to be growing
In Norway specifically, time spent on leisure
has increased in the past four decades
44% 42% 43%
22% 26% 26%
17% 15% 14%
15% 15% 15%
1% 2% 2%
1% 0% 0%
Other activities
Education
Household work
Income producing work
2010
Personal needs
100% =
Leisure
1,440
1,440
1990
1970
100%
8
32
1870 2000
+24
Australia Denmark Netherlands
Canada Italy USA
Days off from full-time work, including vacations & national
holidays, 1870 & 2000
8
24
1870 2000
+16
13
37
+24
23
42
+19
4
32
+28
4
20
1870 2000
+16
SOURCE: Our World in Data
“A master in the art of living draws no sharp distinction between his work and his play; his labor and his leisure; his mind and his body; his education and his
recreation. He hardly knows which is which. He simply pursues his vision of excellence through whatever he is doing, and leaves others to determine whether he is
working or playing.” – Francois-Auguste-Rene de Chateaubriand
31
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Working more hours doesn’t necessarily translate into higher GDP per
capita (or labor productivity)!
2,400
2,600
2,200
0
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
GDP per capita, PPP
Argentina
Average Working Hours per Worker, # per year
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Luxembourg
Uruguay
Myanmar
Mexico
Brazil
Nigeria
United Kingdom
India Philippines
China
Indonesia
Peru
Netherlands
Russia
France
Malaysia
Sweden
Turkey
Israel
Japan
South Korea
Germany
Hong Kong
United States
Switzerland
1,200
30 50
10
0
2,000
75
55
15 70
-5 60
5 65
20 40
25 35 45 80
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,200
2,400
2,600
United Kingdom
Labor Productivity, $ per hour
Portugal
Taiwan
United States
Hong Kong
South Korea
Brazil
Indonesia
Russia
Average Working Hours per Worker, # per year
Israel
Cambodia
Peru
Bangladesh
Philippines
Myanmar
Nigeria
India
Argentina
Uruguay
China
Slovenia
France
Germany
Mexico
5,000 10,000 20,000 50,000 100,000 5 10 20 50
GDP & GDP per hour (labor productivity) vs. working hours by country >1m population, 2017, USD PPP
10 10
Please click →
https://www.hughskillerideas.com/kapows
To Read the rest & hang out with
these legends (I wish), please visit
Hugh’s Killer Ideas. Peace.

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Work 101 (KaPow!)

  • 1. ▪ THESE PLAYBOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR LEGENDS WHO DON’T HAVE MUCH TIME + ARE INTERESTED IN LEARNING ABOUT TOPICS THAT COULD HELP THEM ACHIEVE THEIR FULL POTENTIAL ▪ WHILE IT CONTAINS A CIRCUMSIZED FORM OF THE MATERIAL RELEVANT TO THE SPECIFIC TOPIC, THE AUTHOR ENCOURAGES YOU TO DIG DEEPER & DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH ▪ WHILE POSITIONS ARE TAKEN, THESE ARE NOT INTENDED TO BE EXHAUSTIVE, DIFINITIVE OR PORTRAYED AS EXPERT OPINION. AS WITH EVERYTHING IN LIFE CONSULT OTHER OPINIONS, CHALLENGE EVERYTHING & NOTE THAT BOTAOE (BUT OF COURSE THERE ARE OBVIOUS EXCEPTIONS) ▪ IF YOU DON’T LOVE IT, NO NEED TO LET ME &/OR THE WORLD KNOW. AS THEY SAY, EITHER LEAD, FOLLOW OR GET OUT OF THE WAY Work 101 10 /10 Series – 10 “killer” slides in 10 minutes 11th December 2020 ONLY FOR RECKLESS USE OFFICIAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Given the availability of data, the focus of this KaPow! will be on the USA. Also #’s are averages so may not apply to your personal experience
  • 2. There has been tremendous improvement over the past few centuries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 1940 1820 1960 1840 1920 1860 1880 1900 1980 2000 2020 100,000 Year GDP per Capita (2005 Dollars, ratio scale) Country group and pop. in 2009 (in millions) 10,000 1,000 100 World 6,810 Western offshoots 366 Latin America 580 Western Europe 408 Eastern Europe 114 Africa 908 Former USSR 275 China 1,320 Japan 127 India 1,160 While the rate of improvement has varied, improvements have occurred in all regions of the world Average GDP per capita by country group, 1820-2008 These improvements are likely in the order of >10x over just the past century Quote taken from Russ Robert’s The Price of Everything In 1900, only 15% of American households had flush toilets. Maybe 25% had running water. Housewives - and most women were housewives - washed clothes using a scrub board with water hauled from a well or a stream or a tenement faucet. That meant carrying about 10,000 gallons a year. About 12 hours every day were devoted to household chores. Half of that was food prep. Sound fun? A quarter of all households shared their living quarters with a lodger. No central heating. No refrigerators. Virtually no one had electricity. Maybe a fifth of all household had an icebox and access to ice. No microwaves. No cell phones. Forty percent of the American work force worked on the farm and worked seventy-four hours each week. City workers worked sixty hours a week. Our standard of living in America today dwarfs our standard of living of one hundred years ago by an enormous amount … In 1900, the chance of a woman in America dying during childbirth was about eight out of a thousand, almost 1%. Today, it’s about eight out of 100,000. So childbirth is one hundred times safer than it was 100 years ago … In 1900, one out of every ten – ten! – babies died in the first year of life. Today the mortality rate is under one out of one hundred. That’s a tenfold improvement. It’s about ridding the world of polio … it’s about painkillers … antibiotics and pacemakers.”
  • 3. As human society has evolved, so too has the nature of work Tech- nology World Pop. Hunting & Gathering  Hunters; fishermen; scavengers; tool makers; clothes makers  Stone tools & weapons; fire; animal skin for clothes; sewing needles 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Descript- ion Job types Job examples Agricultural Revolution  Farmers, shepherds, carpenters; bakers; soldiers; butchers; firemen; gladiators  Irrigation; the sickle & the plow; foods (e.g., olive oil); cattle Industrial Revolution  Factory workers; blacksmiths; pharmacists; journalists; train drivers; glassmakers  Factories / assembly lines;; steam power; mechanization; fertilizer Information Revolution  Computer scientist; social media influencer; podcast producer; drone operator  Automation, computers, internet, robots, metaverse, digital networks 10 10 20k 5m 820m 7.9bn  Bands hunted animals & foraged for wild plants & other nutrients (e.g., honey) together with a focus on subsistence  Migration & population growth saw agricultural societies emerge with the help of domesticated animals & new species of crops  The mechanization of manufacturing & electrically powered assembly lines; the introduction of steam & waterpower  Widespread globalization, global institutions & the proliferation of technology, esp. around connectivity, transport & medicine ~200,000 years ago ~12,000 years ago ~250 years ago Ongoing Only a handful Development of larger & more developed societies results in 10’s of jobs Division of labor & rapid economic develop expands the types of jobs into the 100’s Specialization & rapidly evolving technology resulting in 1000’s of unique jobs 1. “The Hero of Alexandria designed, and probably built, a steam engine in the first century B.C. that used fire-heated cauldrons and tubes. The Mediterranean world of the time, however, had all the labor power it needed in slaves, and Hero’s machine was ignored; in an England of the 18th century where slaves were outlawed and cheap labor hard to control and manipulate, great energy was put into creating just such a device.” – Kirkpatrick Sale 1
  • 4. “Our generation were about finding a job. My kids generation is about creating their own job.” – Thomas Freidman Today, there are countless different jobs on offer (with new jobs being added as we speak) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Tutor
  • 5. You will likely have ~12 different jobs over your life across three different skill areas 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Over our lifetime, we will have around ~12 (or more) jobs Average # of jobs for individuals aged 18-54, 1978-2018 5.6 4.5 2.9 2.1 Age 18-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 12.4 jobs over our lifetime The average distribution of job tenure appears to have been consistent in recent times Average time spent with the same employer, 1996-2008 26% 23% 13% 13% 15% 17% 20% 20% 17% 17% 9% 10% 1-2 years 10-19 years 1996 2008 20 years or more 5-9 years 3-4 years 12 months or less 100%
  • 6. According to John Gray In Greek myth, Sisyphus struggles to roll a stone to the top of a hill so it will then roll down the other side. Robert Graves tells his story thus: He has never yet succeeded in doing so. As soon as he has almost reached the summit, he is forced back by the weight of the shameless stone, which bounces to the very bottom once more; where he wearily retrieves it and must begin all over again, though sweat bathes his limbs, and a cloud of dust rises above his head. For the ancient's, unending labour was the mark of a slave. The labours of Sisyphus are a punishment. In working for progress, we submit to a labour no less servile. And, while there can be a fair bit of cynicism about work 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 7. 10 10 And some of us work pretty hard to avoid working (or working too hard) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 And the Covid pandemic has caused a lot of us to assess our current relationship with our work
  • 9. “‘No one can make a pencil.’ Ruth let the statement sit there. She looked at the students’ faces. They weren’t quite sure how to react … [Ruth] reached down into her briefcase again and pulled out what appeared to be a thin piece of wood. ‘There’s only one place in the world that makes these cedar slats and sells them to pencil factories. In the factory, they put ten narrow grooves, each the width of a pencil lead, into each slat, like this.’ She reached down into her bag and pulled out a second cedar slat with ten grooves cut into it. ‘Then they put a little glue in the grooves and lay a lead in each groove. Of course, it’s not really lead, it’s graphite. Anybody know where graphite comes from?’ Nobody answered, so Ruth continued. ‘It’s found underground in Sri Lanka, in Mexico, in China, in Brazil. At the pencil factory, they mix it with clay from Mississippi and a little water and bake it, if that’s the right word for cooking something at 1900 degrees. Then they roll it out and cut it so it's the right length. Voila! What we call pencil lead. They put the lead in these grooves and then they take another grooved cedar slat and lay it on top. A lead and cedar sandwich. It looks like this.’ She reached down again into the briefcase and pulled out another piece of word. ‘What I really wanted to bring back from the factory,’ Ruth continued, ‘was the pencil in the lobby. Maybe 30 feet long. A perfect super-jumbo replica of a real pencil, down to the eraser. Just in case Paul Bunyan or King Kong stopped by and need something to rite with. Now look at this cedar sandwich. There are ten pencils imprisoned in here. We need to set them free. So they pass this sandwich through a special saw that carves the pencils from this block. First, they cut off the bottom, so it looks like this. Can you see the pencils peeking out? These are going to be classic six-sided pencils. Here you can see they half-cut. They then turn the slat upside down, pass it through the saw again, and then pencils emerge. Then each one gets pained three times, that beautiful canary yellow. Every notice how there's never any paint smeared on the end you sharpen? How do they paint it so perfectly?’ ‘They use special tiny brushes?’ Josh guessed. ‘That’s right. A gnome casts a magic spell on some elves. The elves, entranced, use the brushes to get it just right. Actually, they make the pencil a little too long. After they paint it, they slice a titch off the end so that it looks clean. I love that! Isn’t that marvelous? Better than elves! But they don’t worry if the other end is a little sloppy because the customer never sees that end – it’s covered up by the little piece of aluminum and the eraser. After the aluminum and the eraser, they stamp the green letters on. That neon green you see in the body of a fly if the light’s right … A simple pencil,’ she said, holding up the pencil and turning it this way and that in the winter light streaming in from the giant windows lining the wall. ‘Is there anything simpler? Yet the making of a pencil is almost –’ She paused to find the right world. ‘Magical. Is it absurd to call something so simple and mundane, magical? - Russ Roberts, The Price of Everything 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Not much in the world happens without work, even creating a simple pencil! 10 10
  • 10. 10 10 This material was spun up from a number of solid reads (1/2) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hugh’s Killer Idea’s (HKI) Book Rating Hugh’s Killer Ideas is an Amazon Associate. Book purchases resulting from Amazon links may earn an affiliate commission
  • 11. This material was spun up from a number of solid reads (2/2) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Hugh’s Killer Idea’s (HKI) Book Rating 10 10 Hugh’s Killer Ideas is an Amazon Associate. Book purchases resulting from Amazon links may earn an affiliate commission
  • 12. 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Yes, lucky us! It’s that time again. Quiz time. • For many of us, we are defined by the jobs we have. For the average American, what percent of our lives will we spend working? ❑ A: ~15% ❑ B: ~25% ❑ C: ~33% 1 • In 1940, 1 farmer fed ~18 people. Today 1 farmer feeds ~165 people. What percent of the current USA labor force is in agriculture? ❑ A: ~30% ❑ B: ~15% ❑ C: ~2% 2 • In 1950, the overall participation rate of women was 34%. By 2020, it reached 57%. Today, what percentage of American jobs do women hold? ❑ A: ~50% of jobs ❑ B: ~33% of jobs ❑ C: ~15% of jobs 3 You can find the answers at the top of the next slide! 10 10
  • 13. 13 Headline: Like bubbles in beer, cops & donuts or cream in coffee; to be a human is to work 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 In the USA, the past century has seen an increase in GDP per capita of 12 times as-well-as rapid, drastic improvements across a range of work-related indictors. When it comes to productivity, in the 1940’s, one farmer could feed just 18 people. Today that number is more than 165. When it comes to the types of jobs, today less than 2% of the American workforce work in agriculture while in the 1860’s this was closer to 2 in 3 workers. Those freed from the land didn’t just go to the unemployment line, rather workforce participation has grown. For example, for women participation has grown from one in five in the 1900’s to 2 in 3 by the 2000’s, to the point where almost half the jobs in society are held by women. Or even when it comes to safety, workplace fatalities in the mining sector fell from over 3,300 per year in the early 1900’s to 29 in 2020. In 1930 the Nobel Prize winning economist John Maynard Keynes wrote an essay, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren that predicted a 15- hour work week for his grandchildren. Put another way, we might work just Monday & Tuesday, & then have a five-day weekend. Keynes was right that over time labor productivity would increase (productivity per hour is almost five times higher today compared to when Kayne’s wrote the essay) & so too would trade-offs towards leisure over work (in 1870 the average American employed in full-time work took just 3 days of vacation, where today this 20 days). However, he overshot the mark when it comes to working hours, with the average American worker now working ~25% less today than in 1930 (2316 hours down to 1757 hours per year). Rather than 15 hours a week, most full-time works are working close to 2.5 times this amount. Keynes also made predictions about widespread “technological unemployment” due to automation, which also did not come to fruition (in the past four decades employment has grown by 60 million in the USA while unemployment has remained close to 5%, well under the 100-year average of 7%). This alarmist prediction can be traced back to the Industrial Revolution (1760-1840) when Luddites (textile workers in the UK) aggressively protested that machines would destroy their livelihoods. Working is a core part of what it means to be human, put well by the French philosopher Voltaire who said: “We must cultivate our own garden. When man was put in the garden of Eden he was put there so that he should work, which proves that man was not born to rest”. We will spend on average 15% of our lives at work (with this going up to almost a quarter of our time when we are in our middle age). Therefore, an important topic to meditate on. Given this, in the follow KaPow! we will explore 10 myths about work that build off the two above popularized by Keynes. I sincerely hope you find the following informative & enjoyable; & at the very least spend a bit of time reflecting on how you want to spend this 15% of your time. Sending you lots of zing-zing (telepathic good vibes) 😊 Answers to Quiz! Q1. A: ~15%. Q2. C: ~2%. Q3. A: ~50% of jobs. 10 10
  • 14. 10 10 Let’s keep reading. Pretty please with sugar on top! 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  • 15. 15 On average, we will spend 100,000 hours at work over our life 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Almost 1/6th of our life will be spent at work. A lot but less than the time we spend on personal care & leisure Average hours per day across all days of week, %, USA, 2019 The bulk of this time will be during our middle ages (if we are all lucky enough to make it to that age) Average time spend on certain activities, %, USA, life expectancy = 78 years SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics 3% 5% 7% 15% 22% 40% 2% Household Activities Purchasing Goods & Services 1% Other Telephone calls/mail/email Civic /Religious Activities Eating / Drinking 1% 1% Educational Activities 3% Caring for & Helping Others Working Personal Care (e.g., sleep) Leisure & Sports 44% 40% 39% 40% 22% 18% 18% 30% 15% 5% 20% 22% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 10% 5% 4% 100% = Household Activities 3% 2% 25-34 45-54 Educational Activities 65-74 Caring for & Helping Others Civic /Religious Activities Telephone calls/mail/email Purchasing Goods & Services Working 15-19 Eating / Drinking Leisure & Sports 24 24 24 24 4% Other Personal Care (e.g., sleep)
  • 16. 16 However, we probably only spend about one-third of this time on productive work (not saying there is anything wrong with that ☺) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 *DILO (Day in Life Of) is a continuous improvement tool used to analyze time workers spend on different tasks throughout the day SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor, Solitaired 582 510 348 180 72 162 168 Commute Work & Commute Time at Work Breaks Available work-time Lower value time Higher value time -12% -32% -48% 114% 14% 100% 32% 68% 33% 35% Time Spent on Tasks Relating to our Workday from DILO* Observations Avg. full-time employee, minutes, 2019 Workers typically underestimate the time they spend on breaks; with the largest buckets: biological needs (36mins); entertainment (25mins); thinking about things (22 mins)
  • 17. 17 And given our life expectancy is expected to rise, so to will our likely age of retirement 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 SOURCE: David Sinclair, OECD Life expectancy is forecasted to continue to rise, exceeding 100 in the coming decades 60 60 62 66 67 88 2050 1990 1970 2030 2010 2050 +12% +47% The pensionable age has been growing across the OECD, shown through the Australian example x Life expectancy post pensionable age, OECD avg. 18 21 23 23 25 25 29 41 46 69 78 92 95 21 55 2000 1900 1800 1850 1950 2050 2100 113 150 59% 70% 22% High forecast 92% Low forecast
  • 18. 18 We should not forget that retirement is a relatively modern concept. Most of our ancestors essentially worked until they dropped dead 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 SOURCE: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel Labor force participation rate for males 65 & older USA population 65+ available for production of goods & services, 1880-2020 1880 1960 1920 1900 1940 1980 2000 2020 78% 65% 60% 44% 41% 25% 18% 24% -1.2% +1.4% Over the past two decades this decline has started to reverse because of a desire for the income (not a need); also the fact they enjoy working as-well-as a desire to stay active /keep their mind sharp. The “dream” of retirement is about two generations old. The 401(k) – the key retirement savings vehicle – was only born in 1978. It was really only in the 1980’s when the idea that everyone deserved a dignified retirement really took hold.
  • 19. 19 “On the whole people are proud to do what they are doing. Every job demands a lot of care. Nothing gets done in this world – no pencil gets made – without an unbelievable amount of effort.” – Alain de Botton We will explore a # of myths about jobs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Myth #1 – People don’t want to work Myth #2 – Most people hate their job Myth #3 – There is a tsunami of people quitting their jobs Myth #4 – We are now working longer than ever Myth #5 – Our wages are stagnant Myth #6 - All the good jobs are gone Myth #7 – No new jobs are being created Myth #8 – Only meaningless jobs pay well Myth #9 – Our jobs have never been more tenuous Myth #10 – Unemployment is out of control
  • 20. 20 Generally speaking, people like to work and those without a job experience poor outcomes on a range of health indicators 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 1 While Gallup will tell you a minority of employees are engaged at work … Employees by engagement level, %, USA … the volume of people who dislike (or hate) their job is relatively low … Employees response to how they feel, OECD … and those who are unemployed or not in the workforce appear to not be living the dream Those experiencing depression while unemployed Engaged Not Engaged Actively Disengaged 56% 49% 26% 38% 18% 13% -13% +46% -28% 2000 2020 SOURCE: Gallup YouGov UK, Question – Which, if any, of the following best describes how you feel about your current job?, 2017 UK, Question – All in all, which best describes how you feel about your job?, 2005 45% 20% 17% 10% 6% I like my job I neither like nor dislike my job I love my job I dislike my job I hate my job 59% 32% 7% Love Job Like Job Hate Job Dislike Job 2% 6-11 weeks >52 weeks 2 weeks or less 27-51 weeks 11% 13% 17% 19% +7.9% 81.4 76.1 75.2 68.8 Part-time, wanting full-time Unem- ployed Full-time Not in workforce -12.6 Physical Health Index by Age & Employment Status
  • 21. 21 Despite the recent excitement behind the FIRE movement, a lot of early retirees are returning to the workforce 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Food, sleep, water Security, health, finances Friendship, intimacy, family, connections Respect, status, recognition, strength, self-esteem Meeting one’s full potential in life, different for every person A job (meets one’s basic needs) A career (meets one’s psychological needs) A calling (meets one’s self fulfilment needs) A job that becomes a career & even a calling can enable you to achieve some of the higher levels of Maslow’s hierarchy Biological and physiological Safety Love/ belonging Esteem Self actualization “Everywhere, skills transform lives, generate prosperity and promote social inclusion.” – Andreas Schleicher 10 10 The FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) movement is facing some pushback “Working is not just about money … work defines who you are. It provides a place where you are social with people. It gives you interaction with people all day long in an interesting way. IT even helps you live longer & is very good for brain health … so when am I retiring. Never.” – Kevin O’Leary, Mr. Wonderful from Shark Tank $25,000 $50,000 $100,000 $1m $500k $250k Approx. annual budget assuming a 10% return (approx. S&P500 avg. returns) 12 17 29 8% 6% 10% Duration for living off $200k in savings assuming $25k annual budget Investment Return Savings NOTE: Does not factor in tax To retire in your 30’s aggressive saving (50-80% of your post tax income) & cutting expenses to the bone e.g., don’t own a car However, a # of the FIRE movement are coming out of retirement & returning to work because they do not feel fulfilled or as happy as when they worked
  • 22. 22 “Look for the job that you would take if you didn’t need a job ... I think you are out of your mind, if you keep taking jobs that you think it will look good on your resume. Isn’t that a little like saving up sex for your old age” – Warren Buffett Hence, it might be best to take a job that you would do even if you were independently wealthy “For Smith, the pursuit of wealth beyond a point where one had achieved such a comfortable position was pointless, even pathological. Hence, in his Theory of Moral Sentiments, he recounts this story from Plutarch: What the favorite of the King of Epirus said to his master may be applied to all men in the ordinary situations of human life. When the king had recounted to him, in their proper order, all the conquests which he proposed to make, and had come to the last of them; “And what does your Majesty propose to do then?” said the favorite “I propose then,” said the King, “to enjoy myself with my friends, and endeavor to be good company over a bottle.” “And what hinders your majesty from doing so now?” replied the favorite. The funny thing about this incident is that the moment I read it, I realized it was basically the same joke that my graduate school advisor, the anthropologist Marshall Sahlins, used the tell – though in his case, its’s been transformed into a fanciful meeting between a missionary and a Samoan, whom he discovered lying on the beach: MISSIONARY: Look at you! You’re just wasting your life away, lying around like that. SAMOAN: Why? What do you think I should be doing? MISSIONARY: Well, there are plenty of coconuts all around here. Why not dry some copra and sell it? SAMOAN: And why would I want to do that? MISSIONARY: You could make a lot of money. And with the money you make, you could get a drying machine, and dry copra faster, and make even more money. SAMOAN: Okay. And why would I want to do that? MISSIONARY: Well, you'd be rich. You could buy land, plant more trees, expand operations. At that point, you wouldn't even have to do the physical work anymore, you could just hire a bunch of other people to do it for you. SAMOAN: Okay. And why would I want to do that? MISSIONARY: Well, eventually, with all that copra, land, machines, employees, with all that money – you could retire a very rich man. And then you wouldn't have to do anything. You could just lie on the beach all day.” - David Graeber, Debt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10
  • 23. 23 Job satisfaction appears to be relatively high and has risen over the past two decades 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Definition: A bullshit job is a form of paid employment that is so completely pointless, unnecessary, or pernicious that eventhe employee cannot justify its existence even though, as part of the conditions of employment, the employee feels obliged to pretend that this is not the case 50% 37% 13% Yes No Unsure Schouten & Nelissen, Holland, n=1900 YouGov poll, UK, Question – Does your job make any meaningful difference in the world? 60% 40% Yes (or unsure) No “Once, while serving time in exile at a Siberian prison camp, Dostoyevsky developed the theory that the worst torture one could possibly devise would be to force someone to endlessly perform an obviously pointless task ... ‘ It once came into my head that if it were desired to reduce a man to nothing … let him be constrained to pour water from one vessel into another, to pound sand, to move a heap of earth from one place to another, and then immediately move it back again, then I am persuaded that at the end of a few days, the prisoner would hang himself or commit a thousand capital crimes, preferring rather to die than endure such humiliation, share, and torture.’” – David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs Volume of “Bullshit Jobs”, percentage Healthcare Administrators vs. Doctors, % change Despite the hypothesis that “Bullshit Jobs” are widespread and proliferating fast, especially in healthcare … … workers appear to be on average more satisfied today than two decades ago % of respondents completely or somewhat satisfied, 2019 64% 93% 73% 82% 78% 73% 70% Money you earn Promotion Chances Recogntion Your Job 86% +8% +12% +11% +14% 1999 2019 SOURCE: Gallup 2 10 10 1,500% 0% 2,500% 3,500% 500% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Healthcare Admin Doctors Medical spending
  • 24. “Kurt works for a subcontractor for the German military. Or … actually, he is employed by subcontractor of a subcontractor of a subcontractor for the German military. Here is how he describes his work: The German military has a subcontractor that does their IT work. The IT firm has a subcontractor that does their logistics. The logistics firm has a subcontractor that does their personnel management, and I work for that company. Let’s say soldier A moves to an office two rooms farther down the hall. Instead of just carrying his computer over there, he has to fill out a form. The IT subcontractor will get the form, people will read it and approve it, and forward it to the logistics firm. The logistics firm will then have to approve the moving down the hall and will request personnel from us. The office people in my company will then do whatever they do, and now I come in. I get an email: “Be at barracks B at time C.” usually these barracks are one hundred kilometers (62-310 miles) away from my home, so I will get a rental car. I take the rental car, drive to the barracks, let dispatch know that I arrived, fill out a form, unhook the computer, load the computer into a box, seal the box, have a guy from the logistics firm carry the box to the next room, where I unseal the box, fill out another form, hook up the computer, call dispatch to tell them how long I took, get a couple of signatures, take my rental car back home, send dispatch a letter with all of the paperwork and then get paid. So instead of the soldier carrying his computer for five meters, two people drive for a combined six to ten hours, fill out around fifteen pages of paperwork, and waste a good four hundred euros of taxpayers’ money.” - David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Don’t get me wrong. Bullshit jobs and a lot of them, do exist! 10 10
  • 25. “Could there be anything more demoralizing than having to wake up in the morning five out of seven days of one’s adult life to perform a task that one secretly believe did not need to be performed – that was simply a waste of time or resources, or that even made the world worse? Would this not be a terrible psychic wound running across our society? Yet if so, it was one that no one ever seemed to talk about.’” – David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs According to David Graber, there are five main types of bullshit jobs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Descript- ion Exam- ples 1. Flunkies  Receptionists  Administrative assistants  Door attendants / building concierge  Jobs that exist to make other people above them look or feel good (“minions”) 2. Goons  Lobbyists  Telemarketers  Public relations specialists  Corporate lawyers  Jobs that involve an aggressive element - acting to harm or deceive others – to further the interests of their employer 3. Duct Tapers  Airline desk staff who calm passengers missing their bags  Computer programmers repairing poor code  Jobs that solve a problem temporarily that really should not exist 4. Box Tickers  Survey administrators  Corporate compliance officers  In-house magazine journalists  Jobs that create the appearance that useful things are happening when in fact they are not 5. Taskmasters  Leadership professionals  Middle management  Strategy leaders in academia  Jobs that supervise people who won’t really need supervision or even make new bullshit jobs
  • 26. “‘Getting fired,’ Tyler says, ‘is the best thing that could happen to any of us. That way, we’d quit treading water and do something with our lives’.” – Fight Club People quitting appears to be on the rise in recent years, however this does not seem to be the case for women Manu- facturing Hospitality Retail 2.2% Construction 2.9% 5.2% 1.7% 4.3% 1.4% 2.4% 0.9% 79% 153% 144% 71% 2010 2021 The rate of people quitting their jobs appears to be increasing Employees quitting, % of the labor force, USA, 2021 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 3 Bored / unchallenged 6% More money Bad commute Higher purpose Not appreciate Unhappy with boss Corporate culture 44% 12% 12% 12% 7% 7% However, this doesn’t seem to be just younger employees & does vary (with women btw 45-54 staying much longer in their jobs) Median years spent in a job by sex & age, USA Moreover, the main reason for quitting remains financial Main reason for leaving last job, % 12.8 8.3 -35% 6.3 7.8 +24% 3.2 2.9 1983 2016 -9% 2.8 2.8 1983 2016 0% Adults 45-54 years Adults 25-34 years Men Women SOURCE: Our World in Data
  • 27. 27 “One of the things that predicts salary across time is agreeableness ... & it’s part of the reason why women get paid less than men. How you get paid across time depends on a very large number of things – your skills, your abilities, your position, your social network & even if you ask for more money. ” – Jordan Peterson In fact, female participation in the formal workforce is on the rapid rise despite an evident pay gap 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 There are few gender differences when it comes to what workers want Job characteristic is considered “extremely important” While job growth amount women has been impressive in recent years Female share of the labor force, % of total There remains a gender pay gap, with the bulk appearing to be driven by job choice Female: Male salary pay gap percentage by cause 42% 33% 31% 30% 25% 19% 18% 43% 37% 35% 35% 22% 24% 18% Good benefits Able to take time off (e.g., for childcare) A job you enjoy Job security Opportunities for promotion A job that Helps society A high-paying job 43% 35% 33% 33% 23% 22% 18% Men Women x Total 1950 1970 1990 46.8% 2010 37.2% 29.6% 44.1% +1% p.a. Source: PEW TransparentCareer 7.7% Total gap 1.2% 3.3% Other, including bias Reporting bias (e.g. men may over- report their income) 2.5% Choice of job function 0.7% Specific position hired into 0% Choice of lower paying company Lower propensity to negotiate 0% 10 10
  • 28. “For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell” – Deirdre McCloskey, historian Jobs satisfaction is higher for those earning more, in full-time verses part-time work as-well-as in the public or nonprofit sectors Satisfaction appears higher with income, especially above $75k per annum Employed adults “very satisfied” with job, 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 3 Full-time workers appear more satisfied than part-time Adults “very satisfied” with aspects of life, USA, 2016 Private sector employees are the least likely to say their job gives them a sense of identify Adults saying their job …, USA, 2016 SOURCE: Pew Research Earning $75,000+ Earning $30,000 – $74,999 Earning <$30,000 Average = 49% 59% 45% 39% +51% 39% Personal Financial Situation Family Life 31% Current Job The Type of Work You Do 74% 69% 27% 52% 58% 46% +26% +7% +15% +33% Full-time Part-time Self-employed Government 34% 67% 32% 65% 62% Nonprofit 36% 55% 42% Private company Is just what they do for a living Gives them a sense of identity +60%
  • 29. 29 NOTE: There is a distribution. Around 1 in 10 workers do work >50-hour work weeks. Moreover, there are countless cases of overworking, esp. in investment banking 10 10 John Maynard Kayne's appears to have been directionally correct, with working hours declining 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 62 40 0 60 10 30 20 40 50 70 -35% 57 40 -29% 68 40 2000 0 30 1850 1900 10 1950 20 50 40 60 70 -41% 66 36 2000 1850 1900 1950 -46% 4 2,258 2,024 1,980 1,956 1,954 1,780 1,746 1,723 1,710 1,695 1,687 1,676 1,538 1,526 1,356 Mexico South Korea Chile Russia Greece United States Italy OECD average Japan Canada Germany Spain Australia United Kingdom France While working hours vary widely from country to country … Average hours worked per employee per year, 2017, # … on average full-time workers now work 20-30 hours less per week Average weekly work hours per employee, 1870-2000 SOURCE: Statista, Our World in Data This appears consistent across industries and even different role types Average daily hours worked per employee, 1890-1991 8.6 8.8 Transportation Manufacturing 8.6 Construction 10.6 9.6 9.4 1890 1991 Sales Managerial Service 12 9 12 8 11 9
  • 30. It does appear that we have both been taking more vacation & also enjoying more leisure time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 4 10 10 Across countries the average number of days off appear to be growing In Norway specifically, time spent on leisure has increased in the past four decades 44% 42% 43% 22% 26% 26% 17% 15% 14% 15% 15% 15% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% Other activities Education Household work Income producing work 2010 Personal needs 100% = Leisure 1,440 1,440 1990 1970 100% 8 32 1870 2000 +24 Australia Denmark Netherlands Canada Italy USA Days off from full-time work, including vacations & national holidays, 1870 & 2000 8 24 1870 2000 +16 13 37 +24 23 42 +19 4 32 +28 4 20 1870 2000 +16 SOURCE: Our World in Data “A master in the art of living draws no sharp distinction between his work and his play; his labor and his leisure; his mind and his body; his education and his recreation. He hardly knows which is which. He simply pursues his vision of excellence through whatever he is doing, and leaves others to determine whether he is working or playing.” – Francois-Auguste-Rene de Chateaubriand
  • 31. 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Working more hours doesn’t necessarily translate into higher GDP per capita (or labor productivity)! 2,400 2,600 2,200 0 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 GDP per capita, PPP Argentina Average Working Hours per Worker, # per year Bangladesh Pakistan Luxembourg Uruguay Myanmar Mexico Brazil Nigeria United Kingdom India Philippines China Indonesia Peru Netherlands Russia France Malaysia Sweden Turkey Israel Japan South Korea Germany Hong Kong United States Switzerland 1,200 30 50 10 0 2,000 75 55 15 70 -5 60 5 65 20 40 25 35 45 80 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,200 2,400 2,600 United Kingdom Labor Productivity, $ per hour Portugal Taiwan United States Hong Kong South Korea Brazil Indonesia Russia Average Working Hours per Worker, # per year Israel Cambodia Peru Bangladesh Philippines Myanmar Nigeria India Argentina Uruguay China Slovenia France Germany Mexico 5,000 10,000 20,000 50,000 100,000 5 10 20 50 GDP & GDP per hour (labor productivity) vs. working hours by country >1m population, 2017, USD PPP 10 10
  • 32. Please click → https://www.hughskillerideas.com/kapows To Read the rest & hang out with these legends (I wish), please visit Hugh’s Killer Ideas. Peace.