When Less is More: Focusing on the Persuadable Guest
#org#chrs14
Anil Kaul
Chief Executive Officer, AbsolutData
@anil_kaul
Guha Athreya
Associate Director, Hospitality Solutions, AbsolutData
@GuhaAthreya
@Absolutdata
#persuadable
What can we learn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign?
2
Fact 1: Marketing @hotels is about….Offers, Deals & Discounts…
3
…this is also true for other sectors of Travel & Hospitality…
4
Fact 2: Offers are rich and cost intensive
10% Discount for
AAA Members
1
Double Points next
Quarter
2
4th Night Free at
Select Resorts
3
Free Room Upgrade
4
15% Discount
Advance Purchase
5
Military Discount
6
Breakfast Included
7
$150 On-board
Credit
8
$90 Discount on
Suites
9
AARP Member
Discount
10
5
4th night free!!!
(with 3 paid nights)
The Success of a Campaign is determined by Precision in Targeting
Is this a good promotion?
Benefit:
• Lift in Response Rate = 13%-10% = 3%
• Incremental Stays = 3% of 100k = 3k
• Incremental Nights = 3k x 3 Nights = 9k
Cost:
• Non Incremental Stays = 13k-3k=10k
• Free Nights = 10k x 1 Night = 10k
Net Benefit is -1k Nights
Now consider the economics
6
Test
100 k
13 k
13% Response
Targeted
10 k
1 k
10% Response
Hold Out
Control
Over targeting has multiple disadvantages…
Loss of Revenue
Triggers Shopping Behavior
Trains Loyal Customers to wait for
Offers and Discounts
Dilutes the Offers
Increases Marketing Costs
7
What can we learn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign?
8
1. Don’t Over Target
2.
3.
9
Why do Marketers Over Target?
WHY
Responsiveness
NumberofProspects
Unresponsive Responsive
Negative ROI Low-Med ROI High ROI
Today, most marketers know who will respond to a given offer.
That helps, but only to a point…
10
Responsiveness
NumberofProspects
Negative ROI Low-Med ROI High ROI
Unresponsive Responsive
Persuadable
Sure Fire
Marketers can gain significantly by focusing on the Persuadable Guests and
excluding the Sure Fires.
9
What can we learn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign?
12
1. Don’t Over Target
2. Identify who is Persuadable
3.
13
So, how do we identify Persuadable Guests?
How
To identify the Persuadable Guest, we must first understand the difference
between Persuadable and Responsive
Responsive
Guest
Buys when given an offer
Buys when
given an offer Buys when
given an offerPersuadable
Guest
Buys Only when given an offer
11
There are Proven Analytical Methodologies to predict influence and identify
Persuadable Guests – e.g. Uplift Modeling
• PR(Offer) is high
• Where PR is the Probability of Response
Responsive
Guest
Buys when given an offer
Buys when
given an offer Buys when
given an offerPersuadable
Guest
Buys Only when given an offer
• PR(Offer) >> PR(No_Offer)
15
16
This is not just a targeting solution…
What promotions worked in the
past?
1
How can we make it better?2
Who should we target?3
Who can we persuade?
1
Where can we find them?2
What should we offer them?3
Old Backward Looking Process New Forward Looking Process
Understanding the Persuadable Guest can completely turn around the way
Promotions are Developed and Executed
What can we learn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign?
17
1. Don’t Over Target
2. Identify who is Persuadable
3. Design your campaign around the Persuadable
Across many industries, the most successful campaigns have focused on
Persuadable Customers
18
3 Phased Approach
A success story in Hospitality
19
Phase 1: Identifying & Understanding the Persuadable
Guests (for 1 Promotion)
Phase 2: Designing offers and touch points around the
Persuadable Guests
Phase 3: Limited in-market tests followed by full scale
roll out
Impact on One Promotion in One Quarter
A success story in Hospitality
Saved $2MM by not targeting the
Sure Fires
Used a small part of the savings
to give richer offers to the
Persuadable Guests
Generated an additional $4MM in
incremental revenue with no
increase in budgets
20
Thank you

When Less Is More: Focusing on the Persuadable Guest

  • 1.
    When Less isMore: Focusing on the Persuadable Guest #org#chrs14 Anil Kaul Chief Executive Officer, AbsolutData @anil_kaul Guha Athreya Associate Director, Hospitality Solutions, AbsolutData @GuhaAthreya @Absolutdata #persuadable
  • 2.
    What can welearn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign? 2
  • 3.
    Fact 1: Marketing@hotels is about….Offers, Deals & Discounts… 3
  • 4.
    …this is alsotrue for other sectors of Travel & Hospitality… 4
  • 5.
    Fact 2: Offersare rich and cost intensive 10% Discount for AAA Members 1 Double Points next Quarter 2 4th Night Free at Select Resorts 3 Free Room Upgrade 4 15% Discount Advance Purchase 5 Military Discount 6 Breakfast Included 7 $150 On-board Credit 8 $90 Discount on Suites 9 AARP Member Discount 10 5
  • 6.
    4th night free!!! (with3 paid nights) The Success of a Campaign is determined by Precision in Targeting Is this a good promotion? Benefit: • Lift in Response Rate = 13%-10% = 3% • Incremental Stays = 3% of 100k = 3k • Incremental Nights = 3k x 3 Nights = 9k Cost: • Non Incremental Stays = 13k-3k=10k • Free Nights = 10k x 1 Night = 10k Net Benefit is -1k Nights Now consider the economics 6 Test 100 k 13 k 13% Response Targeted 10 k 1 k 10% Response Hold Out Control
  • 7.
    Over targeting hasmultiple disadvantages… Loss of Revenue Triggers Shopping Behavior Trains Loyal Customers to wait for Offers and Discounts Dilutes the Offers Increases Marketing Costs 7
  • 8.
    What can welearn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign? 8 1. Don’t Over Target 2. 3.
  • 9.
    9 Why do MarketersOver Target? WHY
  • 10.
    Responsiveness NumberofProspects Unresponsive Responsive Negative ROILow-Med ROI High ROI Today, most marketers know who will respond to a given offer. That helps, but only to a point… 10
  • 11.
    Responsiveness NumberofProspects Negative ROI Low-MedROI High ROI Unresponsive Responsive Persuadable Sure Fire Marketers can gain significantly by focusing on the Persuadable Guests and excluding the Sure Fires. 9
  • 12.
    What can welearn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign? 12 1. Don’t Over Target 2. Identify who is Persuadable 3.
  • 13.
    13 So, how dowe identify Persuadable Guests? How
  • 14.
    To identify thePersuadable Guest, we must first understand the difference between Persuadable and Responsive Responsive Guest Buys when given an offer Buys when given an offer Buys when given an offerPersuadable Guest Buys Only when given an offer 11
  • 15.
    There are ProvenAnalytical Methodologies to predict influence and identify Persuadable Guests – e.g. Uplift Modeling • PR(Offer) is high • Where PR is the Probability of Response Responsive Guest Buys when given an offer Buys when given an offer Buys when given an offerPersuadable Guest Buys Only when given an offer • PR(Offer) >> PR(No_Offer) 15
  • 16.
    16 This is notjust a targeting solution… What promotions worked in the past? 1 How can we make it better?2 Who should we target?3 Who can we persuade? 1 Where can we find them?2 What should we offer them?3 Old Backward Looking Process New Forward Looking Process Understanding the Persuadable Guest can completely turn around the way Promotions are Developed and Executed
  • 17.
    What can welearn from the success of Obama’s 2012 Presidential Campaign? 17 1. Don’t Over Target 2. Identify who is Persuadable 3. Design your campaign around the Persuadable
  • 18.
    Across many industries,the most successful campaigns have focused on Persuadable Customers 18
  • 19.
    3 Phased Approach Asuccess story in Hospitality 19 Phase 1: Identifying & Understanding the Persuadable Guests (for 1 Promotion) Phase 2: Designing offers and touch points around the Persuadable Guests Phase 3: Limited in-market tests followed by full scale roll out
  • 20.
    Impact on OnePromotion in One Quarter A success story in Hospitality Saved $2MM by not targeting the Sure Fires Used a small part of the savings to give richer offers to the Persuadable Guests Generated an additional $4MM in incremental revenue with no increase in budgets 20
  • 21.