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Weekly report may 05, 2017
1. Market Roundup
This week brought cement sector under the limelight as market chatter surrounding
the fall in export sales coupled with drowning performance in the local market was
reflected in their stock price as disappointed investors shed their holdings pushing
BWCL, MLCF & PIOC downwards. …(on page 02)
Fertilizer Off-Take Climbs 13% Y/Y – 1QCY17
The official fertilizer statistics have been released by NFDC for the month of Mar’17,
wherein urea off-take grew by 81% Y/Y (↓20% M/M) against industry production,
which posted a modest growth of 3% Y/Y (↑28% M/M). DAP off-take, likewise, posted
a whopping growth of 79% Y/Y (↑58% M/M). …(on page 03)
CPI Reading Stands At 4.78% Y/Y
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has released the official inflation statistics for
the month of Apr’17 which reflect a CPI reading of 4.78% Y/Y. The inflation metric for
the month came in at 1.40% M/M, cumulating the YTD tally at 4.09%. …(on page 05)
Weekly News ...(on page 07)
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
May 5, 2017
MSCI Excitement Re-Charges The Bull
KSE - 100 Index
Source: HMFS Research
Weekend Review
Index Performance
Source : HMFS Research
Note: Please refer to the last page for Analyst Certification and other important disclosures.
REP - 110
www.jamapunji.pk
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100
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5,000
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15,000
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Apr-10
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Apr-14
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High Close
Low Vol(mn)
2. 2
Weekend Review
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
Zain Ferzan AC
zain.ferzan@hmfs.com.pk
Market Roundup
This week brought cement sector under the limelight as market chatter surrounding the
fall in export sales coupled with drowning performance in the local market was reflected
in their stock price as disappointed investors shed their holdings pushing BWCL, MLCF &
PIOC downwards. Meanwhile the fertilizer sector also illustrated a contraction in their
off-take, hammering major names like FATIMA and FFBL below their last week’s close,
this pressure was further intensified as the government announced reduction in prices of
the imported inventory. The E&P scripts continue to demonstrate a downward trend in
their share price amid the plunge in the international crude oil prices as MARI and POL
shed 3.79% and 2.58% of their value respectively, while OGDC remained stagnant upon
expectation of inclusion in MSCI emerging market index.
Despite volatility in the market FABL made its mark securing top spot in the gainers race,
underpinned by improved profitability in their quarterly results largely due to focus on
consumer lending. ATLH gained 5.04% as it stepped forward to dominate the 150cc seg-
ment by introducing a newer model posing a threat to PSMC’s most popular choice in
the luxury segment. EPCL also soared by 7.25% during the week on account of improved
financial results and expectation of a further improvement in their core margins. The
coming week may put the bourse in duress as the political uncertainty intensifies in the
heat of the newly formed JIT and the “Dawn Leaks” case, while the MSCI excitement may
trigger a bullish spree in select index names .
Monthly Review - Benchmark Index Blooms In Post Verdict Days
The month of April’17 pushed the benchmark index a further 1,145 points beyond the
previous month’s close, while the average daily turnover depicted a marginal decline of
2.21% dialing in at 240mn shares traded. Meanwhile the anxiety among the foreign in-
vestors escalated as a net outflow of USD36mn was registered during the month, depict-
ing a sharp rise of 105% M/M. The month’s top gainers included PSMC as it gained 40%
in the value underpinned by the rumor of another taxi scheme and the newer models
being launched in the market. While INDU stood next in line leaping by 28% on account
of staggering increase in sales units and improved margins. PAEL rallied on account of
staggering performance in the consumer electronics segment. The coming month may
test the sustainability of the index as the JIT formed for probing the premier’s family
begins proceedings
MSCI Excitement Re-Charges The Bull
TimeLine Open High Low Close Avg Vol % G/L
Jan to Date 47,807 50,887 46,048 49,851 319 4.3%
52 WK Performance 35,352 50,887 35,318 49,851 335 41.0%
1QCY17 47,807 50,887 47,679 48,156 347 0.7%
4QCY16 40,542 47,934 40,061 47,807 430 17.9%
3QCY16 37,784 40,861 37,690 40,542 176 7.3%
CY16 32,816 47,934 29,785 47,807 281 45.7%
CY15 32,131 36,472 28,648 32,816 247 2.1%
CY14 25,261 32,316 25,273 32,131 209 27.2%
Source: HMFS Research
Major Gainers MoM
S.No Symbol Current ∆ PKR % Gain
1 PSMC 864.13 244.16 39.38%
2 INDU 2,044.30 452.74 28.45%
3 PAEL 115.36 23.26 25.26%
4 GHGL 156.00 30.38 24.18%
5 HCAR 922.74 170.82 22.72%
6 SSGC 43.69 6.75 18.27%
7 HASCOL 350.71 50.81 16.94%
8 MEBL 80.00 8.50 11.89%
9 NRL 796.39 83.44 11.70%
10 MTL 1,469.97 153.56 11.67%
Source: HMFS Research
Major Losers MoM
S.No Symbol Current ∆ PKR % Loss
1 NBP 63.75 (10.92) -14.62%
2 JGICL 101.95 (15.55) -13.23%
3 FATIMA 33.99 (5.00) -12.82%
4 IBFL 69.43 (9.57) -12.11%
5 NCL 54.09 (6.48) -10.70%
6 CSAP 224.46 (25.84) -10.32%
7 BNWM 67.47 (6.53) -8.82%
8 NCPL 44.11 (3.89) -8.10%
9 FFC 96.05 (7.55) -7.29%
10 EFUG 161.81 (11.40) -6.58%
Source: HMFS Research
3. 3
The official fertilizer statistics have been released by NFDC for the month of Mar’17,
wherein urea off-take grew by 81% Y/Y (↓20% M/M) against industry production,
which posted a modest growth of 3% Y/Y (↑28% M/M). DAP off-take, likewise, posted a
whopping growth of 79% Y/Y (↑58% M/M). Cumulatively, urea off-take during 1QCY17
came in at 870kt, which is 1.13x in excess of industry sales recorded in SPLY. DAP off-
take, on the other hand posted a staggering growth of 34% Y/Y as compared with corre-
sponding period last year.
FFC persisted on its market leadership by catering 56% of the total urea demand during
the month under review. The urea off-take of the company during the month came in at
115kt, which is 95% higher than the sales recorded in SPLY (↑6% M/M). On the DAP
front, FFC managed to register a modest growth of 6% Y/Y (↓78% M/M). Whereas, on
cumulative basis urea and DAP off-take registered a growth of 5% and 34% respectively
during 1QCY17.
EFERT seems to be slipping on urea front as market share of the company plunged to
31% during the month of Mar’17 as off-take came in at 64kt, which is 35% in lag of Fe-
b’17 tally (↑217% Y/Y). On the flip side, DAP off-take recorded a whopping growth of
158% Y/Y (75% M/M), whereas NPK off-take registered 15% and 45% growth Y/Y and
M/M respectively.
FATIMA recorded a cooling off month after consistently outperforming the local fertil-
izer market. The company recorded urea sales of merely 2kt, registering a negative
growth of 33% Y/Y (↓82% M/M). Can off-take, similarly plunged to 15kt, which is 72%
lower than the off-take recorded in previous month (↑42% Y/Y) while NP off-take grew
by over 51% M/M (↓9% Y/Y)
FFBL stole the show on the DAP front by taking 68% share of the total industry off-take
recorded during the month of Mar’17. Moreover, the company remained firm footed on
urea front by off-loading 22kt of urea, which is 156% in excess of off-take recorded In
SPLY (↑59% M/M).
Weekend Review
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
Fertilizer Off-Take Climbs 13% Y/Y – 1QCY17Sector Update
Junaid IslamAC
junaid.islam@hmfs.com.pk
Urea Industry Volumetric Position
Urea Mar-17 Mar-16 Y/Y Feb-17 M/M
Opening Inventory 1,194 800 49% 1,035 15%
Production 533 517 3% 416 28%
Imports - - - - -
Off-take 207 114 81% 257 -20%
Closing inventory 1,521 1,202 26% 1,194 27%
Source: NFDC & HMFS Research
Mar-17 Mar-16 Y/Y Feb-17 M/M
Off-take (kt)
Urea 207 114 81% 257 -20%
DAP 154 86 79% 98 58%
Retail price (PKR/bag)
Urea 1,367 1,854 -26% 1,362 0%
DAP 2,531 3,085 -18% 2,523 0%
Source: NFDC & HMFS Research
Urea Market Share - 3MCY17
Source: NFDC
45%
32%
9%
5%
5%
3%
FFC Engro Fatima
Dawood FFBL Others
4. 4
Weekend Review
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
Fertilizer Off-Take Climbs 13% Y/Y – 1QCY17Sector Update
On cumulative basis, DAP off-take for 1QCY17 came in at 173kt, registering a growth of
145% Y/Y. urea off-take, on the other hand, registered a modest growth of 7% Y/Y for
1QCY17.
Future Outlook
The local fertilizer industry is expected to bloom in coming months as local players ex-
pect extension in export deadline until Jun’17, along with an upward revision of export
quantity to address the oversupply glut. Furthermore, another push is expected from
official commencement of Kharif, whereas severe shortage of irrigation water remains
an area of concern and is expected to leave a dent on fertilizer industry.
The local urea price currently stands in the neighborhood of PKR1,280/bag, while of
DAP at 2,450/bag as local players offer deep discounts to accelerate sales. The recent
downward revision of imported urea prices, as announced by GoP, is expected to bring
urea prices further down to PKR1,080-1,100/bag, posing a significant threat to local
producers.
3MCY17 3MCY16 Y/Y
Off take (kt)
Urea 870 770 13%
DAP 313 234 34%
Retail price/bag
Urea 1,369 1,880 -27%
DAP 2,536 3,205 -21%
Source: NFDC & HMFS Research
5. 5
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has released the official inflation statistics for
the month of Apr’17 which reflect a CPI reading of 4.78% Y/Y. The inflation metric for
the month came in at 1.40% M/M, cumulating the YTD tally at 4.09%. Major factors
pushing the inflation reading during the month of Apr’17 were ascending prices of
Fresh Vegetables (↑20.64%), Fresh Fruits (↑8.74%) and Chicken (↑3.34%) from the
food items segment, while amongst the non-food category the main propellants were
Education that shot up by 6.5%, followed by a hike of 2.08% in Personal Equipments.
The price of Tomatoes retreated by (↓5.57%), Onions (↓2.77%) and Wheat (↓2.65%).
Core metrics as measured by NFNE posted an increase of 5.50% Y/Y (↑20bps M/M),
while the Trimmed Core measure stood at 4.80% Y/Y (↑30bps M/M).
Food Prices And Housing Utilities Drove Prices Higher
The Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages segment made the largest contribution
in the overall CPI with 146bps, alongside an increase of 4.78% Y/Y. The Perish-
able Food items category saw an increase of 13.42% Y/Y, while Non-Perishable
food items marked an increment of 2.31% Y/Y. Amongst individual sub-
components Potatoes witnessed a jump of 55.05%, followed by Tomatoes
(↑34.31%) and Gram Whole (↑20.76%). On a Y/Y basis a decline in prices of
Pulse Mash (↓22.67%)
The Housing & Utilities segment underwent a sizeable increase of 5.10% Y/Y,
thereby contributing 136bps towards the overall CPI. Spiraling house rents
were the key culprit as they posted an increase of 6.94%, followed by a hike of
5.11% in construction wages
On a Y/Y basis Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco posted an increase of 11.24%
mainly on account of higher prices of cigarettes that were expensive by
11.32% during the year
The Education segment recorded an increase of 12.52% Y/Y, followed by an
increase of 4.13% Y/Y seen in transport on account of a hike in prices of fuel
Inflation Outlook: Higher Oil Prices & Food Items To Keep CPI On An Ascent
The headline inflation has stayed on a higher trend largely on account of steep food
prices and a rising trend in prices of motor fuels. We expect this trend to remain intact
for the remainder of the outgoing fiscal year, while GoP’s decision to keep prices of
petroleum products unchanged for the month of May’17 will help in keeping inflation
under check. The country’s overall macro economic landscape remains under dark
shadows mainly on the back of worsening external account and the looming pressure
on currency. Commencement of repayments to IMF and other international lenders will
further strain the country’s financial position and any imminent depreciation of the PKR
is likely to unleash a new wave of inflationary pressures. We expect overall CPI to stay
in the range of 4.75-5.00% for the remaining part of FY17.
Weekend Review
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
CPI Reading Stands At 4.78% Y/YSector Update
M.Sultan Mahmood AC
sultan.mahmood@hmfs.com.pk
Y/Y Inflation Comparison
Source: SBP & PBS
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Inflation Vs Interest rate
Source: SBP & PBS
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
6-MKibor CPIYoY Discount Rate
7. 7
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
Weekend Review
Meat exports on the decline: Pakistan’s meat exports are on the
decline despite a global trend of rapid growth. The Trade Devel-
opment Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) figures that the country’s
meat exports have dropped to $140.345m in the first eight
months of the ongoing year, from $188.345m a year ago. Inter-
national meat trade on the other hand has risen by 16pc to
touch the $700bn mark.
ECC decides to cut fertilizer rates, issue $350m bond: The gov-
ernment on Friday decided to cut fertilizer prices, issue a $350-
million international bond for 10 years and waive taxes on a
Japanese loan. The cut in the urea price by Rs200 per 50-
kilogram bag, involving a Rs950-million subsidy, is aimed at dis-
posing of about 235,000 tonnes of public-sector stocks losing
shelf life and effectiveness.
Zero-rating facility may be withdrawn: export-oriented sectors
face grim prospect: The government is likely to withdraw sales
tax zero-rating facility granted to five export-oriented sectors in
federal budget 2017-18 as revenue loss has been calculated at
Rs 15 billion during the last nine months (July-March) of current
fiscal year. The government had issued revised sales tax zero-
rating regime for five export oriented sectors, i.e. textile,
leather, carpets, surgical and sports goods from July 1, 2016 un-
der which 5 percent sales tax is chargeable on supplies of locally-
made finished articles of textile and leather products including
finished fabrics to retailers or any other category of persons.
FBR initiates scrutiny of offshore transactions: The Federal
Board of Revenue (FBR) has initiated audit of all those taxpayers
who have made offshore transactions during the last six years,
sources said on Tuesday. “All corporate and individual taxpayers,
who have made offshore investments, have been selected for
audit to check the tax concealment,” an official on the condition
of anonymity said. The FBR has asked the State Bank of Pakistan
(SBP) to provide details of such offshore transfers made by indi-
viduals and corporate units during the last six years, the official
added.
Two frameworks for IPOs notified: The Securities and Exchange
Commission of Pakistan (SECP) on Wednesday notified two regu-
latory frameworks for initial public offerings (IPOs). The Public
Offering Regulations 2017 and Public Offering (Regulated Securi-
ties Activities Licensing) Regulations 2017 aim to promote ease
of doing business and streamlining the entire public offering
process for debt and equity securities. At the same time, the
Central Depository Com-pany (CDC) with the support of banking
system has introduced Centralized E-IPO system (CES), allowing
retail investors to file the application for subs-cription of shares
electronically — using the internet, mobile phones or ATMs.
Atlas Honda launches 150cc motorcycle: After dominating mo-
torcycle market in Pakistan for decades with successful models
in the category of 70cc, 125cc and a fast emerging 100cc bike,
Atlas Honda Ltd (AHL) has launched 150cc motorcycle to cater to
the higher end segment. With a recent investment of $160 mil-
lion ($110 million by AHL and $50 million by its vendors and
group companies over the period of five years) on capacity en-
hancement projects, AHL is continuously working on serving the
market with quality products and introducing new mod-
els."Under Joint Venture agreement Honda Japan contributes 35
percent of total equity of AHL.
Pakistan seeks more than double financing for infrastructure
projects: Pakistan is seeking to more than double the funding
support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for the ongo-
ing infrastructure projects to achieve a growth target of seven
percent by 2019, finance minister said.“Today we met the presi-
dent (of ADB) and briefed him on the ongoing infrastructure
projects in Pakistan and also briefed him on the additional fund-
ing needs to support development works. We requested the
ADB to consider $2.5 billion annual allocation for Pakistan as
infrastructural financing."” finance Minister Ishaq Dar told re-
porters on the sidelines of the ADB's annual meeting.
Asian Development Bank hints at financer’s role for TAPI: The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has hinted that it may play the
role of a financer to lend the governments for their equity in-
vestments or to private sector partners for financing over $10
billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipe-
line to transport natural gas.“During the financial arrangement
stage, ADB may also play a role of a financier to lend to govern-
ments for their equity investments or to private sector part-
ners,” the ADB states in its report “Banking on Future of Asia
and Pacific: 50 Years of ADB” on Thursday.
Pakistan’s first coal, cement terminal begins operation: Paki-
stan International Bulk Terminal (PIBT) – the country’s first coal
and cement handling facility – started commercial operations at
Port Qasim this week with the handling of a cargo vessel that
brought 41,000 tons of coal, according to a statement issued on
Wednesday.“Motor vessel African Finfoot, which was 200 me-
tres long and 32 metres wide with deadweight tonnage of
61,219 tons and maximum draft of 12.5 metres, transported
41,510 tons of coal cargo belonging to Awan Trading (Private)
Limited at PIBT at Port Qasim this weekend,” said the statement.
Weekly News
9. 9
Weekend Review
HABIBMETRO Financial Services
Monetary Indicators
Yield Curve Inflation vs Interest Rate (6-M Kibor)
Source: SBP Source: SBP & PBS
The money markets maintained their calming stance with stable yields throughout the week, whereby 6M KIBOR remained
unchanged at 6.14% while the 10YR PIB stood at 8.20% depicting an increase of 10bps W/W. The inflation reading for the
month of April’17 came in at 4.78%, pushed by higher house rents and food prices. The recent T-Bill auction witnessed a sum
of PKR360bn being raised with the lion’s share concentrated in the 3M bill as it attracted PKR269.8bn at 5.98%, followed by
PKR84.5bn in the 6M tenor at 6.00%, while the thinnest participation was seen in the 12M paper as it managed to raise
merely PKR5.66bn at 5.99%. The central bank kept the banking system afloat by pumping a sum of PKR1,215bn for a tenor of
seven days at 5.81% through an OMO. The forex reserves held at SBP dialed in at USD16bn marking an increase of 12mn dur-
ing the week as the PKR maintained its rock solid footing against the greenback with a parity of 104.84.
M.Sultan Mahmood AC
sultan.mahmood@hmfs.com.pk
Date
Interest Rate Inflation Real Interest
M2 GrowthDiscount
Rate
10-Y PIB 6-M Kibor CPI NFNE
Trimmed
Core
Rate
Apr-16 6.50% 8.15% 6.38% 2.79% 4.40% 3.80% 3.59% 1.30%
May-16 6.50% 8.26% 6.31% 2.82% 4.60% 3.60% 3.49% -0.06%
Jun-16 6.25% 7.82% 6.11% 2.85% 4.60% 3.70% 3.26% 4.80%
Jul-16 6.25% 7.50% 6.02% 4.12% 4.50% 3.60% 1.90% 0.68%
Aug-16 6.25% 6.65% 6.02% 3.84% 4.60% 3.50% 2.18% -1.35%
Sep-16 6.25% 7.76% 6.05% 3.86% 4.80% 3.70% 2.19% 2.83%
Oct-16 6.25% 7.82% 6.05% 3.95% 5.20% 3.80% 2.10% 0.30%
Nov-16 6.25% 7.94% 6.08% 3.92% 5.30% 3.80% 2.16% 0.45%
Dec-16 6.25% 8.34% 6.14% 3.88% 5.20% 3.70% 2.26% 4.29%
Jan-17 6.25% 8.19% 6.12% 3.85% 5.40% 3.80% 2.27% -2.47%
Feb-17 6.25% 8.03% 6.13% 3.89% 5.30% 4.10% 2.24% 0.30%
Mar-17 6.25% 8.02% 6.13% 4.01% 5.30% 4.50% 2.12% 1.53%
Apr-17 6.25% 8.12% 5.90% 4.09% 5.50% 4.80% 1.81% 1.26%
Source: SBP, PBS
6.05%
6.15%
6.25%
6.35%
6.45%
6.55%
6.65%
6.75%
1-W
2-W
1-M
3-M
6-M
9-M
12-M
2-Y
3-Y
Jun-16 Mar-17 Apr-17
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
6-MKibor CPI NFNE Trimed Core
12. 12
Analyst Certificate
The research analyst denoted AC on the cover of the report on with the name of analyst who has written the report. The analysis and
views express in this report exclusively reflect his/her personal views about the subject, company or security. Furthermore his/her
compensation was, is or will not be directly related to the recommendation or views articulated in this report. The information pro-
vided in this report is based on information available to the analyst and in accordance with best of his/her knowledge.
Disclaimer
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