Major shifts occurred during July-August 2006 as leads went flat, the average 30-year mortgage rate went down, and the market composite and refinance index went up, while the refinance percentage of business went up and purchase percentage went down. Additional major shifts happened after the first quarter of 2007 as leads went down, spots and spot costs increased, the average 30-year rate rose, and the market composite, refinance index, and refinance percentage of business fell, while the purchase percentage of business rose.

1. Weekly Forecast Models

2. 8-06 4-07

3. 1-07

4. 1-07

5. 1-07

6. 7-06 4-07

7. 8-06 1-07

8. 8-06 1-07

9. 1-077-07

10. 1-077-06

11. Flat

12. Preliminary Conclusions
Major shifts During July-August 2006
Leads went FLAT
Ave 30 rate went DOWN
Market Composite went UP
Refi Index went UP
Refi Percent of business went UP
Purch Percent of business went DOWN
Major shifts after Q1 2007
Leads went DOWN
Spots and Spots Cost went UP
Ave 30 rate went UP
Market Composite went DOWN
Refi Index went DOWN
Refi Percent of business went DOWN
Purch Percent of business went UP