This document summarizes a presentation on better decision making under climate uncertainty by drawing lessons from psychology. It discusses three key points:
1) People rely more on experiential thinking than statistical probabilities when predicting uncertain events, leading to overconfidence. Experiential thinking uses heuristics like availability and representativeness that are influenced by emotion and recent events.
2) When choosing between actions with uncertain outcomes, descriptive models from prospect theory show people are risk-averse for gains but risk-seeking for losses, and the potential for loss looms larger than potential gain.
3) Intertemporal choices are influenced by impatience, with discount rates inconsistent over time and delays on immediate consumption disliked more, captured
Risk and Uncertainty modeling with application in energy systemsAlireza soroudi
This document summarizes a seminar on decision making under uncertainty. It covers topics like risk, uncertain events, decision makers, stochastic techniques including Monte Carlo simulation and multi-stage scenario based decision making. It also discusses dealing with uncertainties using fuzzy techniques and robust optimization. The document provides examples to illustrate concepts like membership functions in fuzzy logic and formulation of robust optimization problems.
A partnership of funders invites applications for proposals to support networking of researchers from different disciplines relating to the topic of decision making under uncertainty. The theme of the call builds on a number of events held by the funding partners and Research Councils UK (RCUK).
There is a budget of up to £750,000 to support this activity, and we expect to fund a maximum of two networks, which will include support for feasibility projects, for two years.
Proposals will need to consider & seek to involve a wide breadth of relevant communities and build on current RCUK funded activities (see Annex I for examples).
The purpose of this call is to develop & build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and grow a multidisciplinary community in this space. The network(s) will be expected to work with user organisations (policy-makers, industry, and/or civil society organisations) to analyse real-world systems and identify where multi-disciplinary research can develop new approaches to improve decision-making under uncertainty.
Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis by Paulino SilvaPaulino Silva
This presentation shows Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis Chart in a very detailed way. Total Costs are classified in Variable Costs and Fixed Costs. Breakeven point is obtained when Sales equals Total Costs.
Cost Volume Profit (CVP).
Introduction
Fixed costs
Variable costs
Semi variable costs
Contribution margin
Break even point
PV Ratio
BEP ANalysis.
break even point
Cost-volume-Profit.
Decision making under uncertainty rees presentationaOfer Erez
A partnership of funders invites applications for proposals to support networking of researchers from different disciplines relating to the topic of decision making under uncertainty. The theme of the call builds on some events held by the funding partners and Research Councils UK (RCUK). There is a budget of up to £750,000 to support this activity, and we expect to fund a maximum of two networks, which will include support for feasibility projects, for two years. E-Mail: ofer43211@gmail.com anatbensalmon@gmail cristalanna66@gmail.com
https://www.lucidchart.com/documents/view/396e608b-7121-4983-8774-048364368953
Inroduction to Decision Theory and Decision Making Under CertaintyAbhi23396
This document introduces decision theory and decision-making under certainty. It defines decision theory as a descriptive and prescriptive approach to classify levels of knowledge when making decisions. Under certainty, a decision maker has perfect information about outcomes for each alternative, allowing them to choose the best option. An example is provided where a manufacturer must choose between two machines, M1 and M2, to process an order of 1000 units. All costs are known for each machine's setup time, tooling costs, and machining time per unit. Calculations show the total cost is lower to use machine M2, so it is the best choice under the certain conditions given.
The document discusses the relationship between internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) as measures for evaluating potential investments and capital projects. It explains that IRR indicates the potential growth percentage of an investment, while NPV indicates the value of a project's income in today's dollars. It then discusses modified IRR, how it differs from standard IRR by accounting for reinvested returns, and how it relates to NPV and can help address issues with multiple IRRs that arise with negative cash flows or when comparing mutually exclusive projects.
Risk and Uncertainty modeling with application in energy systemsAlireza soroudi
This document summarizes a seminar on decision making under uncertainty. It covers topics like risk, uncertain events, decision makers, stochastic techniques including Monte Carlo simulation and multi-stage scenario based decision making. It also discusses dealing with uncertainties using fuzzy techniques and robust optimization. The document provides examples to illustrate concepts like membership functions in fuzzy logic and formulation of robust optimization problems.
A partnership of funders invites applications for proposals to support networking of researchers from different disciplines relating to the topic of decision making under uncertainty. The theme of the call builds on a number of events held by the funding partners and Research Councils UK (RCUK).
There is a budget of up to £750,000 to support this activity, and we expect to fund a maximum of two networks, which will include support for feasibility projects, for two years.
Proposals will need to consider & seek to involve a wide breadth of relevant communities and build on current RCUK funded activities (see Annex I for examples).
The purpose of this call is to develop & build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision making under uncertainty and grow a multidisciplinary community in this space. The network(s) will be expected to work with user organisations (policy-makers, industry, and/or civil society organisations) to analyse real-world systems and identify where multi-disciplinary research can develop new approaches to improve decision-making under uncertainty.
Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis by Paulino SilvaPaulino Silva
This presentation shows Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis Chart in a very detailed way. Total Costs are classified in Variable Costs and Fixed Costs. Breakeven point is obtained when Sales equals Total Costs.
Cost Volume Profit (CVP).
Introduction
Fixed costs
Variable costs
Semi variable costs
Contribution margin
Break even point
PV Ratio
BEP ANalysis.
break even point
Cost-volume-Profit.
Decision making under uncertainty rees presentationaOfer Erez
A partnership of funders invites applications for proposals to support networking of researchers from different disciplines relating to the topic of decision making under uncertainty. The theme of the call builds on some events held by the funding partners and Research Councils UK (RCUK). There is a budget of up to £750,000 to support this activity, and we expect to fund a maximum of two networks, which will include support for feasibility projects, for two years. E-Mail: ofer43211@gmail.com anatbensalmon@gmail cristalanna66@gmail.com
https://www.lucidchart.com/documents/view/396e608b-7121-4983-8774-048364368953
Inroduction to Decision Theory and Decision Making Under CertaintyAbhi23396
This document introduces decision theory and decision-making under certainty. It defines decision theory as a descriptive and prescriptive approach to classify levels of knowledge when making decisions. Under certainty, a decision maker has perfect information about outcomes for each alternative, allowing them to choose the best option. An example is provided where a manufacturer must choose between two machines, M1 and M2, to process an order of 1000 units. All costs are known for each machine's setup time, tooling costs, and machining time per unit. Calculations show the total cost is lower to use machine M2, so it is the best choice under the certain conditions given.
The document discusses the relationship between internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) as measures for evaluating potential investments and capital projects. It explains that IRR indicates the potential growth percentage of an investment, while NPV indicates the value of a project's income in today's dollars. It then discusses modified IRR, how it differs from standard IRR by accounting for reinvested returns, and how it relates to NPV and can help address issues with multiple IRRs that arise with negative cash flows or when comparing mutually exclusive projects.
NOAA is working to address ongoing toxic substances in the Great Lakes such as PCBs through several projects funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. This includes expanding long-term contaminant monitoring of mussels to track impacts and emerging contaminants, compiling contamination data from various sources into a central database to inform decision making, using models to understand atmospheric mercury deposition and its sources to prioritize reduction actions, and determining how PCB levels affect lake sturgeon reproduction to guide cleanup and restoration efforts.
This document discusses NOAA's role in the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), a $475 million effort to restore the Great Lakes. As one of 15 agencies involved, NOAA received $29.72 million to conduct restoration projects using its science and services. The projects focus on toxic substances, aquatic invasive species, habitat restoration, and accountability. They include contaminant monitoring, modeling, database expansion, land use indicator development, and implementing lakewide management plans. The goal is to restore the Great Lakes, which contain 20% of the world's fresh surface water.
The document discusses how the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funds programs to protect and restore Great Lakes habitats and wildlife. It outlines three programs - the Great Lakes Habitat Restoration Program, Coastal and Estuarine Land Conservation Program, and a contact for more information. The programs plan, implement, and fund coastal habitat restoration and land conservation projects focused on removing barriers, restoring wetlands, cleaning pollution, and controlling invasive species to improve ecosystem health.
Nearshore and Non-Point Source Pollution funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative addresses invasive species, land use impacts, and coastal water quality issues. More than 180 aquatic invasive species exist in the Great Lakes and have degraded habitat and food webs. Researchers will develop models to identify land use tipping points that impact aquatic resources and inform communities. Predictive models will notify the public of expected water quality up to two days in advance to prevent beach closures and economic impacts from bacteria or algal blooms.
The document discusses NOAA's efforts to address aquatic invasive species in the Great Lakes funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. Over 180 aquatic invasive species exist in the Great Lakes and have significantly undermined restoration progress. NOAA aims to improve forecasting of ecological and economic impacts of current and future invasions through research. It also maintains an information system called GLANSIS to provide data on established and potential invasive species in the Great Lakes.
The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funds projects focused on accountability, education, monitoring, evaluation, communication, and partnerships. Through this work, NOAA contributes science to help make progress on initiative objectives. NOAA is implementing a coordinated Great Lakes observing system to provide decision-makers with scientific data and help sustain restoration investments. Projects analyze climate change impacts and help communities adapt to changes in the Great Lakes.
Climate change will have significant consequences for the Earth's environment and human lives. It is predicted to cause lake levels in places like Lake Michigan to drop due to less ice cover in winter from rising temperatures. Severe weather events are also expected to increase as a result of climate change. Ecosystems and human health will be negatively impacted through processes like ocean acidification.
This document describes the Resources for Scientists in Partnership with Education (ReSciPE) program, which provides professional development workshops to scientists engaged in education and outreach. The goal is to help scientists understand best practices in science education so they can more effectively communicate with students and the public. The introductory workshop focuses on inquiry-based learning and shows scientists how to teach scientific concepts through hands-on activities. Evaluations found the workshops increased scientists' willingness and ability to participate in education. The research also provides a framework to guide the professional development of scientist educators.
Stephen Schneider presented on climate change risks and key vulnerabilities at Michigan State University. He discussed the scientific community's role in providing climate change scenarios and emissions projections. Schneider outlined different emissions scenarios, from higher emissions resulting in less stabilization to lower emissions and more stabilization by 2100. He also noted the risks of climate change depend strongly on the emissions scenario and can range from less than 1°C of warming to over 5°C of warming by 2100.
This executive summary discusses the impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes region based on a 2003 report. It finds that the climate is already changing and will continue to warm significantly. This will alter ecosystems in ways that threaten water resources, agriculture, forests, and human communities. While some benefits may occur, the risks of more extreme weather, altered habitats, and disrupted economic activities outweigh them. Urgent action is needed to reduce future impacts.
This document discusses five obstacles to effective climate change decision making: 1) data used is often not meaningful or helpful, 2) stakeholder objectives and concerns are not sufficiently addressed, 3) attributes and measures used to characterize impacts are inadequate, 4) research is loosely tied to decisions that need to be made, and 5) there is little learning from past successes and mistakes. The document examines these obstacles in more detail and provides examples to illustrate challenges with using complex data, addressing stakeholder objectives, developing appropriate attributes and measures, and incorporating learning over time into the decision process.
NOAA is uniquely positioned to establish climate services due to its mission and existing capabilities. NOAA's mission includes understanding changes to Earth's environment and managing coastal and marine resources. It has scientific expertise in atmospheric and ocean sciences as well as responsibilities for coastal ecosystems. NOAA also has existing infrastructure for climate observations, research, modeling, assessments, and information delivery that could form the basis for an integrated climate services strategy. However, more coordination is needed both within NOAA and with external partners to fully meet national needs for climate information and services.
This document outlines the principles of climate science literacy and its importance. It discusses that climate science literacy involves understanding how human activities influence climate change and how climate change impacts society. It identifies several key points, including:
- The climate is changing due to human activities like burning fossil fuels, and additional warming is expected to continue this century with consequences like sea level rise and more extreme weather.
- Understanding climate science allows citizens to make informed decisions to reduce vulnerabilities and respond to both challenges and opportunities of climate change.
- Climate science literacy is part of overall science literacy and helps people understand issues that affect their lives and society.
- Grasping climate science is an ongoing process as knowledge progresses, but
2007 11 27 Climate Changeand Great Lakes Water Resources Report Final AffiliatesLynne Chaimowitz
Climate change will significantly impact water resources in the Great Lakes region:
- Temperatures are expected to rise substantially, reducing water supply through increased evaporation.
- Precipitation patterns will become more variable, increasing flood and drought risks.
- Lake levels are predicted to drop significantly due to higher temperatures and changing precipitation.
- Other regions will face even greater water shortages, increasing pressure to divert water from the Great Lakes.
Conservation efforts are needed to ensure adequate water supplies in the face of a changing climate and growing demand.
A presenter from the Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research (OAR) within the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discusses NOAA's mission goals of ecosystems, climate, weather and water, and commerce and transportation. The presentation provides an overview of OAR, its vision of conducting societally relevant research to improve human relationships with the environment, and its mission to conduct research, develop products and provide scientific leadership to support NOAA's environmental and economic objectives.
This document provides an overview of the Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS) including its role, stakeholders, issues to be addressed, structure and governance, subsystems, and funding. Key points include:
- GLOS' priority is to strengthen stakeholder engagement to support safe, efficient and environmentally sound work and play in the Great Lakes.
- GLOS addresses critical issues like climate change, public health, ecosystem changes, and invasive species.
- GLOS has a leadership team and 12-member board of directors and plans to constitute a program review panel. It is a non-profit Michigan corporation.
- GLOS subsystems include deep water observations, science vessels, nearshore observations
Why You Should Replace Windows 11 with Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 for enhanced perfor...SOFTTECHHUB
The choice of an operating system plays a pivotal role in shaping our computing experience. For decades, Microsoft's Windows has dominated the market, offering a familiar and widely adopted platform for personal and professional use. However, as technological advancements continue to push the boundaries of innovation, alternative operating systems have emerged, challenging the status quo and offering users a fresh perspective on computing.
One such alternative that has garnered significant attention and acclaim is Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, a sleek, powerful, and user-friendly Linux distribution that promises to redefine the way we interact with our devices. With its focus on performance, security, and customization, Nitrux Linux presents a compelling case for those seeking to break free from the constraints of proprietary software and embrace the freedom and flexibility of open-source computing.
Let's Integrate MuleSoft RPA, COMPOSER, APM with AWS IDP along with Slackshyamraj55
Discover the seamless integration of RPA (Robotic Process Automation), COMPOSER, and APM with AWS IDP enhanced with Slack notifications. Explore how these technologies converge to streamline workflows, optimize performance, and ensure secure access, all while leveraging the power of AWS IDP and real-time communication via Slack notifications.
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
Dr. Sean Tan, Head of Data Science, Changi Airport Group
Discover how Changi Airport Group (CAG) leverages graph technologies and generative AI to revolutionize their search capabilities. This session delves into the unique search needs of CAG’s diverse passengers and customers, showcasing how graph data structures enhance the accuracy and relevance of AI-generated search results, mitigating the risk of “hallucinations” and improving the overall customer journey.
NOAA is working to address ongoing toxic substances in the Great Lakes such as PCBs through several projects funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. This includes expanding long-term contaminant monitoring of mussels to track impacts and emerging contaminants, compiling contamination data from various sources into a central database to inform decision making, using models to understand atmospheric mercury deposition and its sources to prioritize reduction actions, and determining how PCB levels affect lake sturgeon reproduction to guide cleanup and restoration efforts.
This document discusses NOAA's role in the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI), a $475 million effort to restore the Great Lakes. As one of 15 agencies involved, NOAA received $29.72 million to conduct restoration projects using its science and services. The projects focus on toxic substances, aquatic invasive species, habitat restoration, and accountability. They include contaminant monitoring, modeling, database expansion, land use indicator development, and implementing lakewide management plans. The goal is to restore the Great Lakes, which contain 20% of the world's fresh surface water.
The document discusses how the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funds programs to protect and restore Great Lakes habitats and wildlife. It outlines three programs - the Great Lakes Habitat Restoration Program, Coastal and Estuarine Land Conservation Program, and a contact for more information. The programs plan, implement, and fund coastal habitat restoration and land conservation projects focused on removing barriers, restoring wetlands, cleaning pollution, and controlling invasive species to improve ecosystem health.
Nearshore and Non-Point Source Pollution funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative addresses invasive species, land use impacts, and coastal water quality issues. More than 180 aquatic invasive species exist in the Great Lakes and have degraded habitat and food webs. Researchers will develop models to identify land use tipping points that impact aquatic resources and inform communities. Predictive models will notify the public of expected water quality up to two days in advance to prevent beach closures and economic impacts from bacteria or algal blooms.
The document discusses NOAA's efforts to address aquatic invasive species in the Great Lakes funded by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. Over 180 aquatic invasive species exist in the Great Lakes and have significantly undermined restoration progress. NOAA aims to improve forecasting of ecological and economic impacts of current and future invasions through research. It also maintains an information system called GLANSIS to provide data on established and potential invasive species in the Great Lakes.
The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative funds projects focused on accountability, education, monitoring, evaluation, communication, and partnerships. Through this work, NOAA contributes science to help make progress on initiative objectives. NOAA is implementing a coordinated Great Lakes observing system to provide decision-makers with scientific data and help sustain restoration investments. Projects analyze climate change impacts and help communities adapt to changes in the Great Lakes.
Climate change will have significant consequences for the Earth's environment and human lives. It is predicted to cause lake levels in places like Lake Michigan to drop due to less ice cover in winter from rising temperatures. Severe weather events are also expected to increase as a result of climate change. Ecosystems and human health will be negatively impacted through processes like ocean acidification.
This document describes the Resources for Scientists in Partnership with Education (ReSciPE) program, which provides professional development workshops to scientists engaged in education and outreach. The goal is to help scientists understand best practices in science education so they can more effectively communicate with students and the public. The introductory workshop focuses on inquiry-based learning and shows scientists how to teach scientific concepts through hands-on activities. Evaluations found the workshops increased scientists' willingness and ability to participate in education. The research also provides a framework to guide the professional development of scientist educators.
Stephen Schneider presented on climate change risks and key vulnerabilities at Michigan State University. He discussed the scientific community's role in providing climate change scenarios and emissions projections. Schneider outlined different emissions scenarios, from higher emissions resulting in less stabilization to lower emissions and more stabilization by 2100. He also noted the risks of climate change depend strongly on the emissions scenario and can range from less than 1°C of warming to over 5°C of warming by 2100.
This executive summary discusses the impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes region based on a 2003 report. It finds that the climate is already changing and will continue to warm significantly. This will alter ecosystems in ways that threaten water resources, agriculture, forests, and human communities. While some benefits may occur, the risks of more extreme weather, altered habitats, and disrupted economic activities outweigh them. Urgent action is needed to reduce future impacts.
This document discusses five obstacles to effective climate change decision making: 1) data used is often not meaningful or helpful, 2) stakeholder objectives and concerns are not sufficiently addressed, 3) attributes and measures used to characterize impacts are inadequate, 4) research is loosely tied to decisions that need to be made, and 5) there is little learning from past successes and mistakes. The document examines these obstacles in more detail and provides examples to illustrate challenges with using complex data, addressing stakeholder objectives, developing appropriate attributes and measures, and incorporating learning over time into the decision process.
NOAA is uniquely positioned to establish climate services due to its mission and existing capabilities. NOAA's mission includes understanding changes to Earth's environment and managing coastal and marine resources. It has scientific expertise in atmospheric and ocean sciences as well as responsibilities for coastal ecosystems. NOAA also has existing infrastructure for climate observations, research, modeling, assessments, and information delivery that could form the basis for an integrated climate services strategy. However, more coordination is needed both within NOAA and with external partners to fully meet national needs for climate information and services.
This document outlines the principles of climate science literacy and its importance. It discusses that climate science literacy involves understanding how human activities influence climate change and how climate change impacts society. It identifies several key points, including:
- The climate is changing due to human activities like burning fossil fuels, and additional warming is expected to continue this century with consequences like sea level rise and more extreme weather.
- Understanding climate science allows citizens to make informed decisions to reduce vulnerabilities and respond to both challenges and opportunities of climate change.
- Climate science literacy is part of overall science literacy and helps people understand issues that affect their lives and society.
- Grasping climate science is an ongoing process as knowledge progresses, but
2007 11 27 Climate Changeand Great Lakes Water Resources Report Final AffiliatesLynne Chaimowitz
Climate change will significantly impact water resources in the Great Lakes region:
- Temperatures are expected to rise substantially, reducing water supply through increased evaporation.
- Precipitation patterns will become more variable, increasing flood and drought risks.
- Lake levels are predicted to drop significantly due to higher temperatures and changing precipitation.
- Other regions will face even greater water shortages, increasing pressure to divert water from the Great Lakes.
Conservation efforts are needed to ensure adequate water supplies in the face of a changing climate and growing demand.
A presenter from the Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research (OAR) within the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discusses NOAA's mission goals of ecosystems, climate, weather and water, and commerce and transportation. The presentation provides an overview of OAR, its vision of conducting societally relevant research to improve human relationships with the environment, and its mission to conduct research, develop products and provide scientific leadership to support NOAA's environmental and economic objectives.
This document provides an overview of the Great Lakes Observing System (GLOS) including its role, stakeholders, issues to be addressed, structure and governance, subsystems, and funding. Key points include:
- GLOS' priority is to strengthen stakeholder engagement to support safe, efficient and environmentally sound work and play in the Great Lakes.
- GLOS addresses critical issues like climate change, public health, ecosystem changes, and invasive species.
- GLOS has a leadership team and 12-member board of directors and plans to constitute a program review panel. It is a non-profit Michigan corporation.
- GLOS subsystems include deep water observations, science vessels, nearshore observations
Why You Should Replace Windows 11 with Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 for enhanced perfor...SOFTTECHHUB
The choice of an operating system plays a pivotal role in shaping our computing experience. For decades, Microsoft's Windows has dominated the market, offering a familiar and widely adopted platform for personal and professional use. However, as technological advancements continue to push the boundaries of innovation, alternative operating systems have emerged, challenging the status quo and offering users a fresh perspective on computing.
One such alternative that has garnered significant attention and acclaim is Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, a sleek, powerful, and user-friendly Linux distribution that promises to redefine the way we interact with our devices. With its focus on performance, security, and customization, Nitrux Linux presents a compelling case for those seeking to break free from the constraints of proprietary software and embrace the freedom and flexibility of open-source computing.
Let's Integrate MuleSoft RPA, COMPOSER, APM with AWS IDP along with Slackshyamraj55
Discover the seamless integration of RPA (Robotic Process Automation), COMPOSER, and APM with AWS IDP enhanced with Slack notifications. Explore how these technologies converge to streamline workflows, optimize performance, and ensure secure access, all while leveraging the power of AWS IDP and real-time communication via Slack notifications.
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
Dr. Sean Tan, Head of Data Science, Changi Airport Group
Discover how Changi Airport Group (CAG) leverages graph technologies and generative AI to revolutionize their search capabilities. This session delves into the unique search needs of CAG’s diverse passengers and customers, showcasing how graph data structures enhance the accuracy and relevance of AI-generated search results, mitigating the risk of “hallucinations” and improving the overall customer journey.
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
GraphSummit Singapore | The Future of Agility: Supercharging Digital Transfor...Neo4j
Leonard Jayamohan, Partner & Generative AI Lead, Deloitte
This keynote will reveal how Deloitte leverages Neo4j’s graph power for groundbreaking digital twin solutions, achieving a staggering 100x performance boost. Discover the essential role knowledge graphs play in successful generative AI implementations. Plus, get an exclusive look at an innovative Neo4j + Generative AI solution Deloitte is developing in-house.
“An Outlook of the Ongoing and Future Relationship between Blockchain Technologies and Process-aware Information Systems.” Invited talk at the joint workshop on Blockchain for Information Systems (BC4IS) and Blockchain for Trusted Data Sharing (B4TDS), co-located with with the 36th International Conference on Advanced Information Systems Engineering (CAiSE), 3 June 2024, Limassol, Cyprus.
Observability Concepts EVERY Developer Should Know -- DeveloperWeek Europe.pdfPaige Cruz
Monitoring and observability aren’t traditionally found in software curriculums and many of us cobble this knowledge together from whatever vendor or ecosystem we were first introduced to and whatever is a part of your current company’s observability stack.
While the dev and ops silo continues to crumble….many organizations still relegate monitoring & observability as the purview of ops, infra and SRE teams. This is a mistake - achieving a highly observable system requires collaboration up and down the stack.
I, a former op, would like to extend an invitation to all application developers to join the observability party will share these foundational concepts to build on:
Introducing Milvus Lite: Easy-to-Install, Easy-to-Use vector database for you...Zilliz
Join us to introduce Milvus Lite, a vector database that can run on notebooks and laptops, share the same API with Milvus, and integrate with every popular GenAI framework. This webinar is perfect for developers seeking easy-to-use, well-integrated vector databases for their GenAI apps.
TrustArc Webinar - 2024 Global Privacy SurveyTrustArc
How does your privacy program stack up against your peers? What challenges are privacy teams tackling and prioritizing in 2024?
In the fifth annual Global Privacy Benchmarks Survey, we asked over 1,800 global privacy professionals and business executives to share their perspectives on the current state of privacy inside and outside of their organizations. This year’s report focused on emerging areas of importance for privacy and compliance professionals, including considerations and implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies, building brand trust, and different approaches for achieving higher privacy competence scores.
See how organizational priorities and strategic approaches to data security and privacy are evolving around the globe.
This webinar will review:
- The top 10 privacy insights from the fifth annual Global Privacy Benchmarks Survey
- The top challenges for privacy leaders, practitioners, and organizations in 2024
- Key themes to consider in developing and maintaining your privacy program
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
Maruthi Prithivirajan, Head of ASEAN & IN Solution Architecture, Neo4j
Get an inside look at the latest Neo4j innovations that enable relationship-driven intelligence at scale. Learn more about the newest cloud integrations and product enhancements that make Neo4j an essential choice for developers building apps with interconnected data and generative AI.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 5DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 5. In this session, we will cover CI/CD with devops.
Topics covered:
CI/CD with in UiPath
End-to-end overview of CI/CD pipeline with Azure devops
Speaker:
Lyndsey Byblow, Test Suite Sales Engineer @ UiPath, Inc.
Sudheer Mechineni, Head of Application Frameworks, Standard Chartered Bank
Discover how Standard Chartered Bank harnessed the power of Neo4j to transform complex data access challenges into a dynamic, scalable graph database solution. This keynote will cover their journey from initial adoption to deploying a fully automated, enterprise-grade causal cluster, highlighting key strategies for modelling organisational changes and ensuring robust disaster recovery. Learn how these innovations have not only enhanced Standard Chartered Bank’s data infrastructure but also positioned them as pioneers in the banking sector’s adoption of graph technology.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Weber
1. Better Decision Making Under Climate
Uncertainty:
Lessons from Psychology
Elke U. Weber
March 16, 2007
Department of Psychology and Graduate School of Business
Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED)
Columbia University
2. “Behavioral science matters”
• Economics and institutional constraints are
important design elements for (climate) risk
management, but
– economics, political science, geography not the only
useful social sciences
– risk communication needs to reach human decision
makers
– risk management needs to be embraced and implemented
by human decision makers
• What is special about human risk perception and decision making
under (climate) risk and uncertainty?
– psychology, behavioral economics, and behavioral game
theory add important insights and risk management
process design tools
4. Predictability
• Powerful human need and human skill
– result of evolutionary selection (or intelligent design?)
• Provides control
– avoid threats to physical and material wellbeing
• Allows to plan and budget for the future
– Homo sapiens arguably the most successful species on earth
5. Need for Control
• So strong, it can lead to wishful thinking
– “illusion of control” in situations that are obviously
determined by chance
• superstitious behaviors
• control, even when illusory, has important health benefits
• Perceived lack of control raises anxiety, individually
and socially
– Inverse ushaped function for beneficial effect of anxiety
– Moderate levels motivate behaviors to regain control
• protective or evasive action
• mitigation of risk
– information search, theory building
– science and technology development
» Forecast developments for weather, climate, earthquakes, economy,
etc.
6. Multiple Processing Systems
• Analytic system
– New evolutionary accomplishment; only available to homo sapiens in full form
– Effortful, slow, requires conscious awareness, and knowledge of rules
• e.g., probability calculus, Bayesian updating, formal logic
– Conscious calculationbased decisions
• May become habits/rules by virtue of repeated execution
• Experiential system
– Evolutionarily older, hardwired, fast, automatic
• Trial and error learning: Association between behavior and consequences
• Emphasis on outcomes of decisions (probabilities not explicitly represented)
• Emotions as a powerful class of associations
– risk represented as a “feeling” that serves as an “early warning system”
– Affectbased decisions (fear or worry as motivator for action)
– Rulebased decisions that get triggered (automatically) by cues in the environment
• Emergency room procedures, trading floor decisions
7. Analytic and Experiential System
• Interact to some extent
– Emotional reactions as input into analytic processing
• Operate in parallel
– “Is a whale a fish?”
– Affective/experiential system is fast, delivers output earlier
– When output of two systems in conflict, behavior typically determined
by experiential processing system
• Discrepancy in output of two systems often accounts
for controversies and debates about magnitude and
acceptability of risks
– e.g., nuclear power, genetic engineering
• Technical experts and academics rely more heavily on analytic processing
• Politicians, policy makers, enduser stakeholders, and general public rely
more heavily on experiential/affective processing
8. How do we know about the possible
outcomes of different actions?
• In Decisions from Description
– Outcome distribution fully described
• possible outcomes and their probabilities provided numerically or graphically
– seasonal climate forecast for next growing season
– hurricane warning issued by local TV station
– Extensive use of analytic processing system
• rare events are overweighted (Prospect Theory) or ignored
• In Decisions from Experience
– Outcome distribution initially unknown
• knowledge of possible outcomes and their likelihood acquired by personal
exposure in repeated choices
– intuitive forecast of climate in next growing season based on years of experience
– intuitive assessment of likelihood of being affected by hurricane based on past
experience with warnings and events
– Extensive use of experiential processing system
• recent events get disproportionate weight
• rare events are underweighted, unless they recently occurred
9. A. Predicting uncertain events
• Normative models
– Probability calculus
– Bayesian updating and belief revision
• Descriptive reality
– Phenomena
• Deterministic/causal/experiential thinking more
prevalent than statistical/probabilistic thinking
• Overconfidence in accuracy of prediction
10. Experiential processing to predict
uncertain events
• Use of heuristics that utilize stored past experience
– Representativeness heuristic: Similarity to category
prototype as indicator of likelihood
• “What is the probability of having a hot and dry summer?”
• Answer is based on similarity of current conditions to prototype;
base rates get ignored
– Availability heuristic: Ease of recall as indicator of
likelihood
• “How likely will New York City experience a terrorist attack before
the 2008 election?”
• More likely events generally easier to recall, but not all easily
recalled events are very likely
– emotional impact (psychological risk dimensions of Slovic et al.)
– recency effects
– media distortions, overreporting of catastrophic rather than chronic
risks
11. Overconfidence in judgments or decisions
“There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.”
Robert Milikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
“Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.”
Lord Kelvin, President of Royal Science Society, 1895
• Confidence ratings
– Poor calibration found in most cases
• Proportion of time a prediction of answer is correct ought to equal the
confidence assigned to that estimate
• Only weather forecasters, bookies, and expert bridge players are well
calibrated
– Due to availability of quick and frequent corrective feedback
• Confidence intervals (CIs) tend to be too narrow
– 95% CIs are closer to 50% CIs
• E.g., for general knowledge questions
– Length of Nile river?
– engineering discount/safety factors are social acknowledgment of
systemic overconfidence
12. Overconfidence in Science
300000 299830 Expected value
with standard error
299950 299820 Recommended value
with reported
uncertainty
299900 299810
Measured speed of light (km/sec)
299850 299800
1984
299800 299790 value
299750 299780
299700 299770
299650 299760
299600 299750
1870 1880 1890 1900 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
Year of experiment Year of experiment
Henrion & Fischhoff (1986)
13. Reasons for Overconfidence
• Attentional
– Selective information and memory search
• Difficult to know what we don’t know
• Confirmation bias
• Implications for veridicality of personal
recollections of climate information
• Motivational
– Need to appear competent and confident to
others and oneself
– Confidence and optimism help to get the job
done
14. B. Choosing among actions with
uncertain outcomes
• Normative models
– Expected utility theory
• Outcomes of actions as random variables
• Outcomes transformed into subjective value/utility
• Shape of utility function as measure of risk aversion/seeking
– Riskreturn models
• Using moments of outcome distributions
– EV and Variance
• Decision as tradeoff between greed and fear
– Capital Asset Pricing Model
» WTP(X) = EV(X)bVar(X)
» Willingness to Pay for Option X involves a tradeoff
between Return (EV) and Risk (Var)
15. • Descriptive Modifications
– Expected utility theory à Prospect theory
• Psychological extension of expected utility theory
– by Kahneman and Tversky (1979)
• Value Function:
– Defined over gains and losses on deviations from reference point
– Concave for gains (riskaverse), convex for losses (riskseeking)
– Steeper for losses than for gains (“losses loom larger”)
– VarianceEV modelsà Psychological RiskReturn Models
• WTP(X) = a Perceived Benefits(X) – b Perceived Risk(X)
• Variance of outcomes does not describe how people perceive the risk of
risky options
– Upside and downside variability do not enter symmetrically; downside gets
greater weight
• Variability and risk often perceived in a relative fashion
– in very basic psychophysical judgments like perceived loudness or brightness
(Weber’s law, 1834)
– coefficient of variation (CV) a measure of relative risk: risk per unit of return
» defined as standard deviation / expected value
16. C. Choosing among actions with
delayed outcomes
• Same framework as for decisions under risk
– Integrate/aggregate over all possible outcomes of a
choice option, but also discount outcomes based on
their time delay
• Normative models
– Discounted utility theory
• Utility of outcome x (u(x)) is discounted as a function of its
time delay
• Constant discount rate for all time periods (exponential
discounting)
• Interest rate on financial deposits a reasonable standard
17. Intertemporal Choice Stylized Facts
• People are impatient
– Discount “too much”
– Implicit discount rate far greater than interest rate
• Discount rates are inconsistent over time
– People especially dislike delays that prevent
immediate consumption
– Delays on existing delays less consequential
• Captured by hyperbolic discounting, where initially very
high discount rate levels off with time delay
18. Multiple Goals and Incentives
• Multiattribute utility theory is normative model
– allows decision makers to make tradeoffs between
multiple outcome dimensions in ways that can satisfy
multiple goals
• Deviations from normative model
– People dislike tradeoffs (we “want it all”)
– Use noncompensatory choice processes
• Decision rules used that avoid the realization of goal conflict
• Editing out of elements that remind us of goal conflicts
– Goal space broader than assumed by traditional
economic view of human nature
• Includes social goals not just selfish goals of homo economicus
• Includes process goals as well as material goals
19. Economic and Other Incentives
• Commonpool resource dilemmas (“tragedy of
the commons”) are serious, but situation not as
hopeless as envisioned by Hardin
– Communication and trust play a major role
• Most interactions seen as repeated games
• Communication is seen as binding and not just “cheap talk”
– Cooperation can be facilitated by appealing to social
identity of people
• Social affiliation and social approval are powerful human
needs
• Priming of social goals by the way situations are described
or “framed” often more effective, “cheaper,” and more
feasible than the modification of economic incentives
20. Policy Implications
• How to get stakeholders (public officials, members
of the general public) to pay attention to climate
change and variability?
– Analytic appeals not very effective
• Contrary to personal experience of climate change in many
regions of the worlds
• Mitigative and adaptive actions often require immediate
costs/sacrifices/losses to achieve timedelayed benefits/gains
– Both hyperbolic discounting and loss aversion argue against taking
such actions
– Is there wisdom in designing more emotional appeals,
i.e., in inducing people to worry more about climate
change and variability?
• Could be done by
– visualization or graphic description of catastrophic climate change
– concretizing future changes in simulations of conditions in local
environments
21. Caveats
• Finite Pool of Worry
– Increases in worry about one hazard may result in decrease in worry about other
hazards
• Found in Argentine farmers with climate risks and political risks (Hansen, Marx,
Weber, 2004)
• Single Action Bias
– Tendency to engage in only a single corrective action to remove perceived threat
of a hazard (single action removes “hazard flag”), even when portfolio of
responses is clearly advantageous
• Radiologist: detect single abnormality, miss others
• US Midwestern farmers: engaged in single adaptation to climate change (either
production practice, pricing practice, or endorsement of government intervention)
(Weber, 1997)
• Argentina Pampas farmers: less likely to use irrigation or use crop insurance if they
had capacity to store grain on their farms (Hansen, Marx, Weber, 2004)
– Reactions on multiple fronts may require more analytic response to situation
22. Risk Communication and Management
Challenges and Implications
• How to use people’s experiential and affective
processing and their aversion to uncertainty
constructively?
– Help people plan for uncertainties
• Scenario analysis provides good match to nonprobabilistic
information processing of experiential system
– Worst case, best case, most likely case scenarios
• Contingency plans, especially for worrisome worst and bad case
scenarios
– Real benefits
» Increased response speed; better responses
– Psychological benefits
» Perceived preparedness reduces anxiety
23. Conclusions
• Probabilistic nature of climate (change) forecasts
– Liability
• In the absence of clear action implications (that allow a feeling of
control), awareness of climate risk may arouse too much anxiety
– Gets edited out, i.e., treated as being effectively zero, resulting in
procrastination and decision avoidance
• Strategic use of uncertainty to justify decisions that are desired for
other reasons (hidden agendas)
– Opportunity
• “Uncertainty is not the enemy”
• Range of outcomes as natural impetus for contingency planning
• Development of forecast formats that take into consideration
human information processing modes and constraints can minimize
liabilities and maximize opportunities
24. Conclusions – cont’d
• Consider the combination of analytic and experiential/emotional
processes
– to facilitate correct interpretation of climate forecasts
– to motivate forecast usage and adaptive risk management actions
• Tailor forecast formats and risk management process to different
segments of users
– Amount and sophistication of analytic processing a key variable, but time
horizon and incentives/goals also differ
– For most users, it will pay to
• Elicit optimal level of worry/concern
– Development of envisioning tools to concretize the (temporally and spatially
distant) impacts of climate change
• Concretize statistical uncertainty measures
– Localize forecasts
– Provide analogies to previously experienced situations
– Discretize the distribution of different futures
» Best case, most likely case, worst case, likelihood of extreme events
• Provide accurate degree of confidence in forecasts
25. Conclusions – cont’d
• Actions and choices can be influenced by strategic
use of “framing”
– Description of situation in ways that prime crossgroup
commonalities, social goals, and cooperation vs.
differences, selfish goals, and competition
– Choice of reference points that depict alternatives as
involving gains or losses, depending on desired response
• Risk seeking in the domain of losses, risk aversion for gains
• Protective or mitigative actions can be seen as either involving
costs and losses or benefits and opportunities
– Both perceptions are true, but attentional focus induced by problem
description often determines responses
26. “Social science matters”
• In addition to economic and institutional
constraints, constraints on human cognition
and motivation need to be considered to
design of effective risk communication and
risk management processes
• Knowledge about human capabilities and
constraints can provide useful tools
• Ignoring such knowledge leaves many
problems seemingly more intractable than
they have to be